MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, July 5th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Mets @ Nationals
deGrom is 4-0, 1.13 in his last four starts (under 4-0). Mets are 5-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 10-5-1
Roark is 0-4, 10.72 in his last five starts; over is 8-5 in his last 13 starts. Washington is 4-5 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-8-1
New York lost their last three games; under is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. Washington won four of last five home games; under is 7-3 in their last ten games.
Pirates @ Phillies
Cole is 3-1, 3.55 in his last four starts; over is 4-2-1 in his last seven. Pirates are 4-5 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-11-3
Lively is 0-3, 4.55 in his last five starts (under 4-1-1). Phillies’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 0-5-1
Pirates lost four of their last five games; under is 7-1 in their last eight games. Phillies lost six of last eight home games; under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games.
Marlins @ Cardinals
Volquez is 1-1, 6.41 in his last four starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight starts. Miami is 1-7 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-8-1
Leake is 1-0, 2.70 in his last three starts; under is 5-2-1 in his last eight. Cardinals are 3-6 in his home outings- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 9-5-2
Marlins lost five of last seven games; under is 6-3-1 in their last ten games. St Louis won five of last seven games; over is 8-4 in their last 12 home games.
Reds @ Rockies
Feldman is 2-0, 1.80 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in their last five. Cincinnati is 3-5 in his road starts- 1st 5-inning record with him: 9-6-2
Colorado is 4-0 in Gray’s starts (1-0, 3.93); under is 2-1-1. Colorado’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-1-1
Reds are 3-15 in last 18 road games; over is 13-6 in their last 19 road games. Colorado lost 10 of last 12 games; under is 6-1-1 in their last eight games.
Diamondbacks @ Dodgers
Godley is 2-1, 3.08 in his last four starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Arizona is 4-1 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-3-1
Wood is 8-0, 1.84 in his last nine starts; over is 6-4-1 in his last 11 starts. Dodgers are won his last three road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 9-2-1
Arizona won seven of last nine road games; under is 5-2-2 in their last nine games. Los Angeles is 13-1 in last 14 home games; under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games.
American League
Blue Jays @ New York
Estrada is 0-4, 9.11 in his last six starts; under is 4-1 in their last five road starts. Toronto is 4-5 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-9-3
Pineda is 1-1, 7.48 in his last four starts; his last seven starts went over. New York is 6-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-9
Toronto lost nine of last 12 games; under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games. New York is 5-8 in its last 13 games; over is 8-3-1 in their last 12 home games.
Red Sox @ Rangers
Fister is 0-1, 4.91 in two starts for Boston (over 1-1). Red Sox’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 0-2
Cashner is 1-3, 6.14 in his last four starts (under 8-4-1). Texas is 3-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-5-3
Boston won its last six games; over is 6-1 in their last seven road games. Texas lost seven of last nine games; over is 16-2-1 in their last 19 home games.
Angels @ Twins
Bridwell is 2-1, 4.70 in four starts this year (over 3-1). Angels’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-1
Santana is 2-2, 7.59 in his last four starts; over is 4-2-1 in his last seven. Twins are 4-5 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 11-4-2
Angels lost five of last six games; five of Angels’ last six road games stayed under. Minnesota won three of last four games; under is 7-3 in their last ten home games.
White Sox @ A’s
Pelfrey is 1-1, 5.12 in his last four starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. Chicago is 3-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-6-2
Gray is 1-1, 1.80 in his last two starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven starts. Oakland is 3-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-5
White Sox won four of last six games; over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games. A’s lost 8 of their last 9 home games; under is 7-3-1 in his last 11 home games.
Royals @ Mariners
Vargas is 7-0, 2.12 in his last seven starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Royals are 5-2 in his road starts; their 1st 5-inning record with him: 11-4-1
Miranda is 1-1, 2.53 in his last three starts; under is 6-3-1 in his last ten. Seattle is 4-4 in his home starts; their 1st 5-inning record with him: 10-7
Royals are 17-6 in their last 23 games; over is 6-2 in their last eight games. Seattle lost seven of its last nine games; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine home games.
Interleague
Giants @ Tigers
Blach is 1-3, 8.13 in his last five starts; over is 6-1-1 in his last eight. Giants are 2-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-5
Norris is 0-2, 9.32 in his last two starts; over is 5-1 in his last six. Detroit is 2-5 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-7-2
Giants won six of their last seven games; five of their last six games stayed under. Detroit is 5-11 in its last 16 games; four of their last six games went over.
Rays @ Cubs
Snell is 0-3, 9.19 in his last three starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Tampa Bay is 1-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-5-1
Lackey is 1-4, 6.35 in his last five starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Chicago is 3-4 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-12-1
Rays are 9-6 in last 15 games; under is 5-2 in their last seven games. Chicago lost five of last seven games; under is 5-3 in last eight games at Wrigley Field.
Orioles @ Brewers
Aquino allowed two runs in six IP (99 PT) in his only ’17 start (April 22). He is 2-7 with a 4.46 ERA over 12 starts in AAA this year. Orioles’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-0
Garza is 0-2, 4.96 in his last three starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five home starts. Brewers are 4-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-5-2
Baltimore lost four of last five games; under is 7-1 in their last eight games. Milwaukee won five of last six games; under is 6-3-1 in their last ten home games.
Padres @ Indians
Perdomo is 2-0, 3.18 in his last two starts; under is 4-1 in his road starts. San Diego is 0-5 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-4-3
Bauer is 2-1, 3.51 in his last four starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Cleveland is 4-4 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-6-2
Padres lost seven of last ten road games; under is 10-4 in their last 14 games. Indians won four of last six games; under is 7-1 in their last eight home games.
Astros @ Braves
Musgrove is 0-3, 10.29 in his last three starts; over is 3-0-1 in his road starts. Astros are 3-1 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-9
Garcia is 0-3, 6.75 in his last five starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. Atlanta is 3-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-7-3
Astros won five of last six games; over is 9-2 in their last 11 games. Braves are 11-5 in last 16 games; under is 8-2 in their last ten games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
NY-Wash: deGrom 10-6; Roark 9-8 (0-5 last 5)
Pitt-Phil: Cole 9-8; Lively 1-5
Mia-StL: Volquez 6-10; Leake 8-8
Cin-Colo: Feldman 8-9; Gray 4-0
Az-LA: Godley 7-3; Wood 9-3
American League
Tor-NY: Estrada 7-10; Pineda 10-6
Bos-Tex: Fister 1-1; Cashner 5-8
LA-Min: Bridwell 3-1; Santana 10-7
Chi-A’s: Pelfrey 6-7; Gray 5-7
KC-Sea: Vargas 12-4; Miranda 10-7
Interleague
SF-Det: Blach 5-8; Norris 7-8
TB-Chi: Snell 2-6; Lackey 7-9
Blt-Mil: Aquino 1-0; Garza 6-6
SD-Clev: Perdomo 6-8; Bauer 8-8
Hst-Atl: Musgrove 5-8; Garcia 7-8
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National League
NY-Wash: deGrom 6-16; Roark 7-17
Pitt-Phil: Cole 5-17; Lively 3-6
Mia-StL: Volquez 6-16; Leake 2-16
Cin-Colo: Feldman 3-17; Gray 1-4
Az-LA: Godley 1-10; Wood 1-12
American League
Tor-NY: Estrada 7-17; Pineda 9-16 (4 of last 4)
Bos-Tex: Fister 1-2; Cashner 4-13
LA-Min: Bridwell 0-4; Santana 3-17
Chi-A’s: Pelfrey 3-13; Gray 2-12
KC-Sea: Vargas 3-18; Miranda 6-17
Interleague
SF-Det: Blach 4-13; Norris 3-15
TB-Chi: Snell 1-8; Lackey 9-16
Blt-Mil: Aquino 0-1; Garza 3-12
SD-Clev: Perdomo 6-14; Bauer 2-16
Hst-Atl: Musgrove 3-13; Garcia 3-15
Umpires
National League
NY-Wash: Under is 2-0 in Libka’s games this season.
Mia-StL: Six of last seven O’Nora games this season.
Pitt-Phil: Under is 4-2-1 in last seven Vanover games.
Cin-Colo: Underdogs won four of last five Danley games.
Az-LA: Three of last four Hallion games stayed under.
American League
Tor-NY: Four of last five Conroy games stayed under.
LA-Min: Over is 10-2-1 in last thirteen Eddings games.
Chi-A’s: Under is 7-3 in last ten LBarrett games.
KC-Sea: Under is 5-2 in last seven Wolf games.
Bos-Tex: Under is 6-3 in last nine Dreckman games.
Interleague
TB-Chi: Over is 8-4 in last twelve Culbreth games.
SF-Det: Last four Guccione games went over total.
SD-Clev: Underdogs are 6-4 in last ten Lentz games.
Hst-Atl: Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Layne games.
Balt-Mil: Five of last six Johnson games went over.
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 42-29 AL, favorites -$822
AL @ NL– 42-42, favorites -$852
Total: 81-69 AL, favorites -$1,674
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 42-32-2
AL @ NL: Over 45-34-2
Total: Over 87-66-4
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MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
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Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
The New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays close out a three-game set in the Bronx with each club notching a victory. According to opening odds at BetOnline.ag the Yankees are -$141 home favorites, with a run total of 9.5.
Michael Pineda carrying an 8-4 record, 4.05 ERA gets the start For New York. The right hander took the win for Yankees in a 13-4 victory in Houston in his latest start, giving up three runs (two earned) on seven hits over six innings, striking out three and walking none. In his lone start vs Toronto this season Pineda was knocked for 5 runs on 10 hits over five innings in a loss and is now saddled with a 0-5 team start skid vs Blue Jays.
Toronto is expected to start Marco Estrada (4-6, 4.86 ERA), who lasted 4.1 innings in a 4-7 loss to the Boston Red Sox in his latest outing. He allowed two runs on two hits with three strikeouts, but Estrada walked seven in 94 pitches. Estrada 1-1 vs Yankees this season heads to the hill carrying a 5-1 team start streak last 6 vs New York and sports a perfect 5-0 TSR in the Bronx since joining Toronto.
Coming into the series finale the Yankees have won 5 of 9 meetings this season including 4 of 4 in front of the home audience..
Wednesday's Diamond Notes
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Red Sox (6-0 last six, 8-1 last nine)
Andrew Benintendi hit a pair of homers, finishing 5-for-5 while driving in six as the Nos. 5-9 hitters in the Boston lineup went a ridiculous 16-for-24 (.667) in an 11-4 rout of the Rangers on Tuesday night. The onslaught made up for Mookie Betts going 0-for-6 in leaving eight men on base as the Sox scored in six of nine innings and led 11-0 before Texas got on the board against their bullpen. David Price struck out nine over six scoreless frames, which combined with New York's home loss to Toronto, helped increase Boston's AL East lead to a season-high four games. The Red Sox seek out a season-best seven-game winning streak and consecutive series sweeps for the first time in 2017 as they send Doug Fister (0-1, 4.91 ERA) to the mound in Arlington for his third start with the club. Following the game, the team will leave for Tampa Bay, where they'll play four against the divisional rival Rays prior to the All-Star break.
Coldest team: Rockies (2-11 last 13)
Colorado assembled seperate winning streaks of six and seven games in June and sat atop the NL West after Nolan Arenado helped beat the Diamondbacks with an eighth-inning two-run triple on June 20. The terms "magic" and "destiny" were being thrown around, perhaps tempting fate given what has transpired since. The Rockies lost the last two home games of their series against the Snakes and then went 1-8 on a road trip where they exclusively played division rivals. After beating the Reds for its first win this month to open the week, Colorado suffered an 8-1 Independence Day loss at the hands of the previously winless Homer Bailey, who came in with an ERA of 27.00. The under is 6-0-1 in their last seven games and 8-2-1 over the Rockies' last 11 since they've scored three or fewer runs in eight of those games. Staff ace Jon Gray returned from the disabled list after missing two months due to a broken bone in his left foot and won the only game on that aforementioned ill-fated road trip, striking out 10 over six innings in a 6-3 win at Arizona. He'll be making only his second start at Coors Field this season, his first since April 8, and has Colorado installed as a substantial favorite (-160) against Cincinnati despite last night's poor showing.
Hottest pitcher: Jason Vargas, Royals (12-3, 2.22 ERA)
After the Padres pulled off a stunning 1-0 July 4th upset of Corey Kluber and the Indians, Kansas City climbed to within 1.5 games of the AL Central lead. That's quite an accomplishment considering they went 7-16 in April, but the Royals have gone 21-10 since June began and will look to sweep Seattle before moving on to Dodger Stadium for a weekend series. Vargas gives them a great shot at breaking out the brooms considering he leads the AL with 12 wins and has compiled a 2.22 ERA, allowing more than three runs in just one of his 16 starts this season. The left-handed Vargas went 36-42 over a four-year stint with the Mariners from 2009-12, so he's no stranger to Safeco Field. He'll be facing the M's for the first time this season but has won seven consecutive starts, which includes victories over the Indians, Giants and Angels on the road. Despite Vargas' dominance, the Royals are an underdog (+115) against Seattle southpaw Ariel Miranda, who threw seven scoreless innings against the Angels in a 10-0 win last time out and pitched at least seven frames in four of his six June starts.
Coldest pitcher: Andrew Cashner, Rangers (3-7, 3.87 ERA)
After allowing two or fewer earned runs in seven of his first eight starts, Cashner's resurgent season hit a rough spot in June. He gave up four or more runs in three of his four starts last month, losing all of those decisions by a combined margin of 24-8. He also landed on the disabled list with an oblique strain and returned last Thursday in Cleveland only to give up five runs in five innings in addition to getting drilled in his pitching arm by Edwin Encarnacion's flying broken bat. X-rays were negative and he suffered only a contusion, so Cashner hopes there won't be any lingering effects against Boston as he makes only his second home start since May 17. The TCU product is 1-2 with a 3.10 ERA in Arlington despite issuing more walks (13) than strikeouts (12) and allowing opposing hitters to bat a robust .291 with five homers over his five starts.
Biggest UNDER run: Pirates (7-1 last eight, 16-5-1 last 22)
Jameson Taillon and the Pittsburgh bullpen combined to blank the Phillies 3-0 yesterday despite the fact that slumping Tony Watson single-handedly tried to blow the shutout in the seventh before being bailed out. The win snapped a four-game losing streak, but runs have been hard to come by for the Bucs of late as they've plated more than four in only three of their last 13 games. They'll run into promising Phils rookie Ben Lively but are favored heavily (-150) on the road behind ace Gerrit Cole (6-7, 4.51) despite the fact he's struggled in allowing 18 home runs over his 17 starts.
Biggest OVER run: White Sox (5-0 last five)
Chicago rallied to tie Oakland in the top of the ninth on Tuesday, but the bullpen served up a game-winning homer to rookie Franklin Barreto in a 7-6 loss. The White Sox missed closer David Robertson, who is currently on paternity leave after welcoming a daughter to the family on July 4th. With the bullpen in disarray and Mike Pelfrey (3-6, 4.13) attempting to work out of a slump that has seen him win a single decision over his last seven starts, completing six innings only once in that span, it's no surprise to see the A's heavily favored (-180) with ace Sonny Gray on the mound for Wednesday's matinee series finale. Chicago has averaged 6.2 runs per game over this stretch of high-scoring games, but have surrendered that exact amount as well.
Matchup to watch: Diamondbacks at Dodgers
These are two of only four teams in the majors currently at 50 or more wins, so there's no doubt that this series between the NL West's top teams provides baseball's marquee matchup for the next two days. L.A. improved to an MLB-best 34-11 at home by winning the series opener 4-3 behind Clayton Kershaw, but Arizona cashed late for run-line bettors that took the +1.5 on a three-run homer from Daniel Descalso off closer Kenley Jansen with two outs in the 9th. We'll see if that momentum carries over for the Snakes as they take on undefeated Alex Wood (9-0, 1.83), who was shocking left off the NL All-Star team despite the fact he's just 8.1 innings shy of qualifying for the league lead in ERA. Arizona righty Zach Goldley hasn't given up more than three runs in a start this year, potentially setting up a pitcher's duel in this second of a three-game set.
Betcha didn’t know: Young Jayson Aquino (1-1, 9.00), who was called up to the bigs for the first time on July 4 last year, will make his second career MLB start for Baltimore. Slumping Chris Tillman is on the paternity list as he prepares to become a father for the first time, so the 24-year-old Dominican lefty will take the mound for the Orioles in Milwaukee for what will be his first big-league road start. He beat the Red Sox on April 22 at Camden Yards, allowing just two runs over six innings, but faces a National League team for just the second time, having debuted at Dodger Stadium a year and a day ago. He's had issues with his mechanics but enjoyed a strong June and has a losing record at Triple-A Norfolk mostly because of poor run support.
Biggest public favorite: Indians (-220) vs. Padres
Biggest public underdog: Angels (+155) at Twins
Biggest line move: Tigers (-150 to -180) vs. Giants
Struggling Mets face Nationals
By: StatFox.com
The Nationals will be hoping to continue to bury the second place Mets with a win in D.C. on Wednesday.
New York is currently sitting at 38-45, and the team is now 11.5 games back in the NL East standings. The Mets were supposed to be the team that was capable of giving the Nationals some trouble in the division, but they would need a miraculous second half of the season in order to even put themselves in contention to pass the Nationals. Washington, however, does not seem likely to collapse, as the team continues to win games. The Nats enter this one on a three-game winning streak, and they are likely going to finish the season with one of the best records in the National League. The starters in this Wednesday night matchup are going to be RHP Jacob deGrom (8-3, 3.55 ERA, 125 K) for the Mets and RHP Tanner Roark (6-6, 5.27 ERA, 78 K) for the Nationals. Although the season has been pretty disappointing for New York, deGrom has been a bright spot for the team. He might no longer be a guy that finishes with an ERA of 3.00 or better, but he can still shut down his opponents on any given night. Roark, meanwhile, has struggled for Washington and really needs to get himself going soon. One trend that favors New York in this game is the fact that the team is 13-5 against the money line in road games against teams with bullpens that have an ERA of 4.20 or worse this season. The Mets are, however, a lousy 8-22 against the money line versus teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game this season. And they could also be without OF Yoenis Cespedes (Hamstring), who is listed as questionable for this one. That is in addition to the absence of OF Michael Conforto (Hand), who is on the 10-day DL right now.
Jacob deGrom will be on the mound on Wednesday, and that is good news for a struggling Mets team. The righty has been unhittable as of late, as he has allowed one or fewer earned runs in four straight games for New York. One of those starts came against this same Nationals team, as deGrom allowed no earned runs in eight innings of work against Washington on Jun. 18. He struck out six batters in that game and walked just two. He’d certainly be more than satisfied with an outing just like that one on Wednesday. Offensively, OF Jay Bruce (.256 BA, 21 HR, 57 RBI) is a guy that will need to step it up for the Mets in this one. With so many injuries striking this lineup, Bruce is the most reliable hitter that the team has right now. He had a homer and two RBI against Washington on Tuesday, and he’ll be hoping that he got himself going with that one. Bruce had gone four straight games without a hit before hitting that bomb, so he definitely needed something to boost his confidence. Another guy to keep an eye on for the Mets is OF Curtis Granderson (.236 BA, 13 HR, 36 RBI). Granderson is currently dealing with a bad hip, but he has been able to bat in each of the past two games for the Mets. They’ll do everything they can to get him back out there at some point on Wednesday as well.
The Nationals are rolling right now, as they are entering this game on a three-game winning streak. They do, however, have Tanner Roark on the mound in this game. Roark has been absolutely awful for Washington this season. He most recently allowed three earned runs in only three innings of work against the Cardinals on Jun. 30. Roark threw 85 pitches in those three innings, and it’s really important that he starts to be more efficient. The Nationals are going to need him at his best in the near future, and it’s actually hard to imagine them tolerating his recent form much longer. Offensively, Washington has the bats to cover for Roark. One guy that will be happy to help is 2B Daniel Murphy (.341 BA, 14 HR, 60 RBI). Murphy loves playing against his former team, and his 4-for-5 game on Tuesday is evidence of that. Murphy drove in five runs in that game, and he should be able to come through once again on Wednesday. OF Bryce Harper (.324 BA, 20 HR, 64 RBI) is also capable of helping the Nationals here. Harper has been red-hot lately, as he has driven his average up from .313 to .324 since Jun. 30. Since then, Harper has homered twice and driven in six RBI. His confidence is through the roof.
MLB Picks of the Day: July 5, 2017
By Zabo Jones
Bangthebook.com
MLB Underdog of the day: Arizona Diamondbacks +202
I don’t have any favorites that I like much today, at least value wise. The Diamondbacks and the Dodgers are going to be playing in Dodger Stadium with Alex Wood starting for the Dodgers against Zack Godley for the Diamondbacks. Godley has been one of the keys to the rotation for Arizona this season after fear that they lacked a good replacement for Shelby Miller early in the season. Meanwhile Alex Wood has been arguably the best pitcher in the MLB so far this season.
The Diamondbacks are one of the surprise teams this season, as they look to be a near lock to make the playoffs. I think it’s unlikely that they win the division against the Dodgers, but I also think it’s very unlikely that any team catches them in the wild card race. Godley has been hugely important to their success so far this season, being one of their best starting pitchers. His ERA at the moment is 2.67, and an xFIP of 3.44. While he has benefitted greatly from a very low BABIP, playing at Dodger stadium will probably prevent a large volume of homeruns. It also makes some sense that Godley has benefited from such a low BABIP given his very high groundball rate, which is near 60%.
The Dodgers are going to be starting who has arguably been the best pitcher in the MLB, Alex Wood. While I’m certainly not arguing that he is a better pitcher than Kershaw, results wise he has been at the very least on par. Wood has an ERA of 1.83, and an xFIP of 2.58, but at lower levels it’s very rare to see someone’s ERA outperform their peripheral stats. Wood has the trio of great skills that I would want out of any pitcher, with a high strikeout rate, low walk rate, and high groundball rate. This has made it very easy for him to limit baserunners. Ultimately, I like the Diamondbacks in this game, solely for value. Getting the Diamondbacks at better than 2-1 in any game is probably worth consideration on for me.
MLB Over/Under of the day: Cleveland Indians/San Diego Padres Under 9
The Indians and Padres are meeting up in Progressive field on Wednesday night, with Trevor Bauer and Luis Perdomo starting. It’s starting to look like the Indians are going to run away with their division, while the Padres look like they are going to get the number one overall pick in next season’s draft.
The starter for the Padres Perdomo is now in his second season as a starting pitcher for the Padres, one of the few returning cogs from last season’s team that has remained healthy. Ultimately I don’t have too much to say about Perdomo outside of the fact that I think he has had a lot of unluckiness related to BABIP. His BABIP is sitting at .326, with a groundball rate of 65%. Perdomo is about a league average pitcher, who has a bit of upside for the Padres in the future.
Trevor Bauer is going to be starting for Cleveland. While I think it’s likely that Bauer is still most well-known for cutting his finger on a drone, and being annoying on Twitter, I think it’s worth noting that he’s also a very good pitcher. So far this season, the results haven’t been great to see, with an ERA of 5.24, but the peripherals are much more impressive. He has an xFIP of 3.71, with some bad luck in both homerun rate, and BABIP. He has a homerun to flyball rate of 17.5%, and a BABIP of .325. The BABIP in particular is surprising given the fact that the Indians have built a very good defense, with only second base being an obvious below average defensive position. Ultimately, I love the upside of Bauer in this game against such a bad offense, so I like the under quite a bit in this game.
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Double-Play Picks
New York Mets at Washington Nationals (-105, 8.5)
The New York Mets and Washington Nationals wrap up their three-day holiday weekend series this evening in D.C. The Nats took the first two games and will look to convert the sweep over their division rivals.
The Mets will send their ace Jacob deGrom to the mound today. degrom has been very good on the road this season with a 4-1 record and a 4.56 ERA. His road ERA is inflated due to one bad start in Arlington a few weeks ago, however, in his four starts since that poor outing he is 4-0 with an ERA of 0.84 and a WHIP of 0.7188.
The Nationals are a great offensive team, but deGrom has a very good history against them. The Mets have won six of his last seven starts against the Nats, including his last three outings at Nationals Park. deGrom's last start versus Washington was eight innings of three-hit ball with zero earned runs allowed.
The Nats will counter with Tanner Roark and he is in a serious funk right now. Washington has dropped his last five starts and in those five trips to the hill he owns an ERA of 9.53 and a WHIP of 2.2941.
Mets avoid the sweep today.
Pick: Mets -115
Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners (-135, 9)
The Royals will be going for the sweep as they conclude their three-game set in Seattle, while the Mariners will try to salvage one game in a battle of two teams jockeying for position in the American League Wild Card Race.
Kansas City took the first two games by a combined score of 10-4 and it won’t get any easier for the Mariners, as the Royals send recently named All-Star Jason Vargas to the mound for the finale. The veteran southpaw has become the ace of the Royals staff in 2017, going 12-3 with a 2.22 ERA and a 1.115 WHIP in 16 starts.
Vargas faces a Seattle lineup that has fallen into a bit of a lull over their last nine games, where they are averaging just 3.2 runs per game over that span.
Meanwhile the Mariners counter with their best pitcher and no, that title no longer belongs to “King Felix”. We are now talking about second-year starter Ariel Miranda.
The 28-year-old Cuban has more than come into his own after an up-and-down start to the season. Miranda leads the Mariners in wins with seven, in ERA at 3.82 and WHIP at 1.141. The southpaw has been even better at Safeco Field, pitching to a 2.56 ERA and a 0.905 WHIP, while limiting opponents to a .184 batting average in eight starts.
Miranda faces a Royals lineup that is starting to find its stride, but still ranks 25th in runs, 21st in average and 25th in OPS.
Additionally, the Under is 9-0 in the Mariners’ last nine games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and is 4-0-1 in Miranda’s last five starts at home.
This game has pitcher’s duel written all over it.
Pick: Under 9
Yesterday's Picks: 0-2
Season To Date: 82-72-7
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Alex Wood, Los Angeles Dodgers (9-0, 1.83 ERA, $544)
When you sit behind a guy like Clayton Kershaw in the rotation, it can sometimes be easy to be overlooked, but don’t worry Alex Wood. We see you.
Wood has been nothing short of spectacular in his second full season in Los Angeles. The southpaw is 8-0 with a 1.98 ERA and a 0.966 WHIP since joining the Dodgers rotation and has allowed just six earned runs in his last eight starts.
Wood and the Dodgers are big -222 home faves against the Diamondbacks on Wednesday.
Slumping: Joe Musgrove, Houston Astros (4-7, 6.01, $-568)
It feels like it should be really hard to be slumping when the team behind you is so good, but that’s where we are with Astros’ starter Joe Musgrove.
Musgrove has lost four of his last five starts, with the last three being particularly bad, where he is 0-3, with a 10.29 ERA and 1.928 WHIP in those outings.
But, since it’s the Astros, they are -133 road favorites today against the Braves.
Wednesday's Top Trends
* Under is 11-4 in Gerrit Cole's last 15 starts overall. Pirates/Phillies Total: 9.
* The Cleveland Indians are 3-13 in their last 16 interleague games. -240 today vs. Padres.
* The Minnesota Twins are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter. -170 vs. Angels (Bridwell).
* The Kansas City Royals are 10-1 in Jason Vargas' last 11 starts vs. a team with a losing record. +115 today @ Mariners.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
There is a chance of a few thunderstorms developing early in the game between the Mets and Nationals in D.C. this evening with a 40 percent chance of rain during the first couple of innings. Things should clear out nicely.
There is a 30-40 percent chance of rain late in the game in Arlington between the Red Sox and Rangers. There could also be some thunderstorms associated with this precipitation.
The biggest threat of postponement will be in St. Louis tonight where the Cards will host the Marlins. Thunderstorms are expected all day in St. Louis, reducing to "a chance of thunderstorms" for the evening and a 40-50 percent chance of rain.
The only game that will be impacted by any significant wind today is this afternoon's contest between the Blue Jays and Yankees in The Bronx. There will be a 12-14 mile per hour wind blowing in from right-center field and the total is currently set at 9.
Ump Of The Day
Tom Hallion will be calling balls and strikes tonight in Los Angeles for the battle between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. Hallion is the No. 4 Over umpire in Major League Baseball at 12-4 this season and dating back to last season the Over has cashed in 16 of his last 21 games behind the dish.
The total for tonight's game is currently set at 7.5.