MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, June 21st, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Cardinals @ Phillies
Wacha is 1-2, 9.28 in his last five starts; over is 9-1 in his last ten. St Louis is 1-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-5-2
Pivetta is 1-2, 3.32 in his last four starts (over 3-3-1)— their 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-4-2
Cardinals lost five of last seven games; over is 6-0-1 in their last seven games. Philly lost 12 of last 13 games; under is 3-1-3 in their last six games.
Nationals @ Marlins
Scherzer is 4-1, 1.58 in his last five starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Washington is 6-2 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 9-4-1
Straily is 4-1, 3.86 in his last six starts; over is 5-2-1 in his last eight. Miami is 4-3 in his home starts— their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-5-1
Washington is 12-4 in its last 16 road games; over is 8-1 in their last nine games. Miami won six of its last seven home games; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine home games.
Giants @ Braves
Samardzija is 1-4, 5.58 in his last five starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Giants are 3-5 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-8-5
Newcomb is 0-2, 2.92 in two MLB starts (under 2-0); Braves scored one run in the two games. Atlanta’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 0-2
Giants lost nine of last 11 games; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. Atlanta won four of last six games; under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games.
Pirates @ Brewers
Williams is 1-0, 4.33 in his last five starts (over 4-1). Pirates are 3-1 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-3-1
Guerra is 0-1, 4.76 in his last three starts (over 4-2). Brewers’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-1-2
Pirates are 7-3 in their last ten games; under is 4-2-1 in their last seven games. Milwaukee lost three of its last four games; over is 6-1-1 in their last eight games.
Padres @ Cubs
Diaz is 0-0, 6.75 in two MLB starts (over 2-0). San Diego’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-0-1
Butler is 1-2, 3.92 in his last four starts (over 3-3-1). Cubs’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-3
San Diego lost nine of last 11 road games; over is 5-3 in their last eight road games. Cubs won four of last five games; under is 4-0 in their last four games.
Diamondbacks @ Rockies
Walker is 2-0, 0.82 in his last two starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Arizona is 4-2 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-3-1
Colorado is 5-0 in Hoffman starts; he is 1-0, 3.48 at home, 3-0, 1.33 on road. Rockies’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-0
Arizona won seven of its last eight games; under is 11-5-2 in their last 18 road games. Colorado won its last six games; over is 6-3-1 in last ten games at Coors Field.
Mets @ Dodgers
Pill is 0-1, 5.23 in two starts this year (over 2-0). Mets’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-1
Hill is 2-2, 6.95 in his last five starts, last three of which went over. Dodgers are 2-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-5
Mets lost six of their last eight games; seven of their last eight games went over. Dodgers won 11 of last 12 games; over is 10-1 in their last 11 games.
American League
Angels @ New York
Nolasco is 0-6, 7.06 in his last six starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. Angels are 1-6 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-7-3
Montgomery is 2-0, 2.89 in his last three starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. New York split his six home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-12
Angels lost three of last five games; over is 4-1 in their last five road games. New York lost its last seven games; over is 6-2 in New York’s last eight home games.
Indians @ Orioles
Carrasco is 3-1, 3.91 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Indians are 6-1 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 9-3-1
Gausman is 0-2, 9.19 in his last three starts; over is 7-1 in his last eight. Orioles are 6-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-9
Indians won six of their last seven games; over is 3-1 in their last four games. Baltimore is 4-9 in its last 13 games; last eight Oriole home games went over.
Blue Jays @ Rangers
Biagini is 0-4, 6.43 in his last four starts (under 6-2). Toronto’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-5
Ross allowed two runs in 5.2 IP (95 PT) in his first ’17 start, vs Seattle. Rangers’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-0
Toronto won three of its last four road games; four of their last six games went over. Texas won eight of last 11 games; over is 12-2-1 in their last 15 home games.
White Sox @ Twins
Holmberg is 1-0, 3.71 in four starts (17 IP, under 2-1-1). Chicago’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-1-1
Berrios is 3-0, 2.79 in his last three starts (under 6-0-1). Twins’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-2
White Sox lost six of last nine road games; over is 9-5 in their last 14 road games. Minnesota is 3-10 in its last 13 home games; under is 4-2 in their last six games.
Red Sox @ Royals
Pomeranz is 3-1, 3.77 in his last five starts (over 5-3 in his last eight). Boston is 3-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-7
Kennedy is 1-2, 6.30 in his last four starts; over is 7-1 in his last eight. Royals are 1-5 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-8-2
Red Sox are 8-4 in their last 12 games; four of their last six games stayed under. Kansas City won eight of last ten games; over is 11-3-1 in their last 15 games.
Astros @ A’s
Fiers is 3-0, 2.13 in his last four starts; over is 4-2-1 in his road starts. Astros are 5-2 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-6-1
Manaea is 5-0, 3.08 in his last six starts; over is 5-2-1 in his last eight. A’s are 4-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-4-3
Astros won three of last four games; over is 8-3-1 in their last 12 road games. Oakland won four of its last six games; over is 10-5-1 in their last 16 home games.
Tigers @ Mariners
Verlander is 0-1, 3.43 in his last four starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. Detroit is 2-6 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-6-3
Paxton is 0-2, 12.91 in his last two starts; over is 4-2-1 in his last seven. Seattle is 4-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-3-2
Tigers lost nine of last 12 games; under is 3-1-1 in their last five games. Mariners are 8-3 in their last 11 home games; under is 5-0-1 in their last six home games.
Interleague
Reds @ Rays
Adleman is 2-1, 2.53 in his last five starts; over is 3-2 in his road starts. Reds are 1-4 in those road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-4-1
Ramirez is 0-2, 10.90 in his last four starts (over 5-2). Rays are 4-0 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-4-1
Reds lost 10 of their last 11 games; over is 12-5 in their last 17 games. Tampa Bay won six of last eight home games; Rays’ last seven home games went over the total.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
StL-Phil: Wacha 4-8; Pivetta 2-5
Wsh-Mia: Scherzer 9-5; Straily 7-7
SF-Atl: Samardzija 5-9; Newcomb 0-2
Pitt-Mil: Williams 5-3; Guerra 2-4
SD-Chi: Diaz 0-2; Butler 4-3
Az-Col: Walker 7-3; Hoffman 5-0
NY-LA; Pill 1-1; Hill 4-4
American League
LAA-NYY: Nolasco 3-11; Montgomery 5-7
Clev-Balt: Carrasco 10-3; Gausman 7-8
Tor-Tex: Biagini 3-5; Ross 1-0
Chi-Minn: Holmberg 3-1; Berrios 6-1
Bos-KC: Pomeranz 8-5; Kennedy 4-8
Hst-A’s: Fiers 8-5; Manaea 7-5
Det-Sea: Verlander 7-7; Paxton 5-5
Interleague
Cin-TB: Adleman 5-6; Ramirez 5-2
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National League
StL-Phil: Wacha 1-12; Pivetta 2-7
Wsh-Mia: Scherzer 3-14; Straily 2-14
SF-Atl: Samardzija 6-14; Newcomb 1-2
Pitt-Mil: Williams 4-4; Guerra 1-6
SD-Chi: Diaz 0-2; Butler 3-7
Az-Col: Walker 3-10; Hoffman 0-5
NY-LA; Pill 2-2; Hill 2-8
American League
LAA-NYY: Nolasco 4-14; Montgomery 4-12
Clev-Balt: Carrasco 2-13; Gausman 4-15
Tor-Tex: Biagini 2-8; Ross 1-1
Chi-Minn: Holmberg 1-4; Berrios 1-7
Bos-KC: Pomeranz 5-13; Kennedy 3-12
Hst-A’s: Fiers 6-13; Manaea 3-12
Det-Sea: Verlander 5-14; Paxton 1-10
Interleague
Cin-TB: Adleman 4-11; Ramirez 6-7
Umpires
National League
StL-Phil: Favorites won last seven HGibson games.
Wsh-Mia: Six of last seven Demuth games went over.
SF-Atl: Underdogs won five of last six O’Nora games.
Pitt-Mil: Three of last four Layne games stayed under.
SD-Chi: Five of last six Blaser games went over total
Az-Col: Underdogs won seven of last ten Fletcher games.
NY-LA; Under is 6-0-1 in last seven Barksdale games.
American League
LAA-NYY: Favorites are 9-2 in last 11 Woodring games.
Clev-Balt: Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Blakney games.
Tor-Tex: Over is 4-2-1 in last seven Holbrook games.
Chi-Minn: Last seven Hickox games went over the total.
Bos-KC: Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Morales games.
Hst-A’s: Five of last six Dreckman games stayed under.
Det-Sea: Under is 4-1-2 in last seven Carlson games.
Interleague
Cin-TB: Four of last six Carapazza games stayed under.
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 39-22 AL, favorites -$82
AL @ NL– 37-35 AL, favorites -$629
Total: 76-57 AL, favorites -$711
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 39-26-1
AL @ NL: Over 41-26-2
Total: Over 80-52-3
Armadillosports.com
Wednesday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Rockies (6-0 past seven games, 13-3 past 16 overall)
The Rockies opened their key National League West battle with the Diamondbacks with a narrow 4-3 in behind German Marquez, winning for the sixth consecutive game to take over the perch in the division. The Colorado pitching staff has allowed a total of just nine runs over the past three games, all at Coors Field, which is a feat in and of itself. The Rockies have won seven in a row at Coors Field, 13 of their past 16 overall and they're 20-8 in their past 28 games against right-handed starting pitching. They're also an impressive 5-0 in Jeff Hoffman's past five outings. The Diamondbacks have won six of Taijuan Walker's past eight starts, and four of his past five against divisional foes, so it should be a good battle.
Coldest team: Phillies (0-4 past four games, 1-12 past 13 overall)
The Phillies have dropped four in a row, but two of the losses came by one run and yesterday's loss was decided in the 11th inning. If things break slightly differently, the Phillies could be playing .500 ball or better during the past 13 games, but instead their 1-12. Six of the losses during the span are of the one-run variety. They'll try to get things right against the Cardinals on Wednesday, but it won't be easy. The Cardinals have won 20 of Michael Wacha's past 28 starts against teams with a losing overall record. The Phillies, on the other hand, are just 15-43 in their past 58 vs. RHP while winning just two of their past 10 home outings against righties.
Hottest pitcher: Max Scherzer, Nationals (8-4, 2.26 ERA)
Scherzer takes the ball in the first game of the day at 12:10 p.m. ET in Miami, looking for his fourth consecutive victory on the road. He has been on fire all season away from the nation's capital, going 6-1 with a 1.84 ERA over 58 2/3 innings acrosss eight starts while holding the opposition to an amazing .155 batting average. His 0.84 WHIP leads the league, and he also has managed 134 strikeouts over 99 2/3 innings in 14 starts overall. It will be his first start of the season against the Marlins, a team he is 6-2 with a 3.86 ERA against in nine outings since the start of the 2014 season.
Coldest pitcher: Kevin Gausman, Orioles (3-6, 6.60 ERA)
Gausman takes the ball looking to get on track with a win against the Indians, but it won't be easy. Cleveland has won six of their past seven outings, and they're 5-1 in their past six home games while going 7-1 in Carlos Carrasco's past eight assignments. Gausman has fallen off big time, allowing 55 earned runs over just 75 innings with an unsightly 1.92 WHIP and .338 opponent batting average. The reason for his struggles has been multi-fold, but his inability to keep the ball in the park and his frequent issuing of free passes are the two biggest reasons. The Orioles have won just four of thier past 13 games overall, and they're 1-7 in their past eight against teams with a winning overall mark.
Biggest UNDER run: Indians (19-7-3 past 29 road games overall)
The Indians has been hard on the opposition, especially when on the road or when Carrasco is on the hill. The Tribe has posted a 19-7-3 'under' mark in 29 road games overall while going 11-3 over Carrasco's past 14 outings. They're also 13-4 over the past 17 road starts by Carrasco. The under will be difficult against an Orioles team cashing the over on a regular basis lately. The over is 7-0-1 in Baltimore's past eight home games, 13-2-1 in their past 16 against a right-handed starter and 6-0-1 in Gausman's past seven home starts. The total was a push in Tuesday's battle, and the under is 3-1-1 in the past five meetings, while going 7-1-1 in the past nine meetings at Camden Yards.
Biggest OVER run: Reds (4-0 past four games, 10-3-1 past 14 overall)
The young Reds pitching staff has been very giving lately, allowing 27 runs over the past four outings. It's no surprise the 'over' has hit in each of those four contests. The over is 6-1-1 in the past eight road games for Cincinnati while going 4-1 in their past five vs. RHP. The over is also 22-8 in their past 30 against teams with a winning record while going 5-2 in Tim Adleman's past seven tries against a team with a winning overall mark. They're playing a perfect opponent, as Tampa has had the total hit the over very frequently in recent weeks. The over is 16-5-1 in the past 22 games, 7-0 in their past seven at home and 5-1 in Erasmo Ramirez's past six home outings.
Matchup to watch: Mariners vs. Tigers
The Mariners will look to continue hurting the Tigers, while Detroit looks for their first win of the series. Seattle has won three in a row, doing it with some pitching and timely hitting. They're average 6.2 runs per game over the nine past outings while yielding just 3.0 runs per game over their past six outings at Safeco Field. That's a recipe for success. Justin Verlander is on the bump trying to get the Tigers pointed back in the right direction again, although Detroit is 0-4 over his past four assignments on the road. The Tigers have also managed just one victory over their past five tries against a left-handed starter on the road. That includes a loss Tuesday against LHP Ariel Miranda and the M's.
Betcha didn’t know: The Mets will recall Tyler Pill from Triple-A Las Vegas to start Wednesday's game, as they needed a Rafael Montero to work in relief on Monday after Zack Wheeler struggled early. Pill has been up with the big club before, working a scoreless frame out of the bullpen in Atlanta on June 10, and he has an 0-2 record with a 3.75 ERA overall for the big club. At Vegas he has a 4-1 record with a 2.04 ERA in eight starts. He'll be up against a tough customer, as Rich Hill has posted a 3-1 record with a 2.83 ERA in six starts this season at Chavez Ravine.
Biggest public favorite: Twins (-200) vs. White Sox
Biggest public underdog: Tigers (+135) at Mariners
Biggest line move: Twins (-170 to -200) vs. White Sox
MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
Cincinnati at Tampa Bay (-135); Total: 9
Tim Adleman and Erasmo Ramirez are the scheduled starters for getaway day baseball down at the Trop. Adleman shows up for this start with a 4.22 ERA, a 5.14 FIP, and a 4.97 xFIP. Adleman’s biggest problem has been his home run rate, with 12 jacks allowed in 64 innings of work. The right-hander has done a good job of inducing weak contact outside of the home runs, but lefties have a .477 SLG against him in 122 plate appearances. That’s concerning against a Tampa Bay team that has a lot of left-handed power. Adleman has only allowed 55 hits and a .250 BABIP against, but it’s that power presence for the Rays that worries me here.
Erasmo Ramirez just isn’t cut out to be a starter. It’s hard for a lot of guys to navigate a lineup two or three times without much strikeout upside. That’s the case here. Ramirez has made seven starts and 12 relief appearances with a 5.17 ERA, a 4.20 FIP, and a 4.17 xFIP. As a starter, he has allowed a .314/.351/.529 slash against and a .367 wOBA in 148 plate appearances. The second time through the order, hitters are batting a robust .396/.439/.577 off of him. Some guys just aren’t cut out to be starting pitchers and Ramirez appears to be one of those guys.
I don’t normally stump for overs in getaway day games, but this pitching matchup lends itself to one. If you want to try to eliminate some bullpen variance and just play the first five over, I totally get that, but I think we have some runs coming here. Ramirez has allowed a .476 SLG to righties and a .446 to lefties, so hitters from both sides for the Reds could have success in this game.
St. Louis (-130) at Philadelphia; Total: 9.5
Michael Wacha Flocka Flame has run into a boatload of trouble lately. Wacha started the season on a high note, but now has a 4.78 ERA with a 4.14 FIP and a 4.17 xFIP. Since May 25, Wacha has allowed 21 earned runs over five starts and has walked multiple batters in all of those games. He had been thriving on weak contact early in the season, but his BABIP against is now sitting at .331 and he’s seen a big reversal of fortunes. Now, Wacha does show signs of positive regression with that ERA/xFIP discrepancy. The Phillies aren’t a very good team, as we know, so this could be a spot for some positive gains for the right-hander.
Nick Pivetta might be starting to figure this MLB thing out. The 24-year-old has an electric arsenal with a couple fastball variations in the mid-90s, a pretty good slider with life, and a couple of pitches to slow things down. He had it all working last time out against Boston in seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts. Perhaps the Phillies picked up on a mechanical issue and fixed it. Pivetta finally gave Pete Mackanin some length in that game as well. Pivetta hasn’t allowed a home run over his last four starts after allowing five in his first three starts. His BABIP against sits at .350, but he has decent peripherals otherwise.
I don’t want to overreact to one start from Pivetta. The Cardinals offense has been pretty hit or miss this season, though, and has missed more often than it has hit. Things in St. Louis aren’t peachy right now, as it’s becoming increasingly clear that there’s a disconnect between Mike Matheny and the team. The Cardinals bullpen has been better, though, so I’d lean to the Cardinals and also lean to the under in this one.
San Francisco (-125) at Atlanta; Total: 9
Is it just me or is Jeff Samardzija pitching every three days for the Giants? It feels like we just talked about Shark and here he is on the bump once again. This time, Samardzija will be taking on the Atlanta Braves, as rookie Sean Newcomb toes the rubber for the home team.
Samardzija gave up eight runs on 11 hits, though he did hit a dinger, in his last start against Colorado at Coors Field. Samardzija is a clear case of MLB variance this season. Everything in his profile points towards improvement. He has unbelievably strong K/BB numbers. He has a 4.81 ERA with a 3.08 xFIP. His LOB% is 64.9 percent. His BABIP against is .333, even though he has still allowed 14 HR in 91.2 innings of work. Maybe Samardzija just doesn’t have command. This looks like the Michael Pineda profile from last season and a lot of people dumped a lot of money into the train cars on that locomotive and the ROI never really came together.
I’ll be intrigued to see which way the line goes here. Nobody wants to lay a price with the Giants on the road right now, but you have to in order to buy into Shark’s positive regression. It’s entirely possible that there’s just no command for him right now. Fastball command has been the problem and when that’s the problem, we see numbers like this. Opposing hitters have posted a 143 wRC+ on his two-seamer with a .323/.347/.552 slash. Hitters have also hit the four-seamer and the splitter hard as well. It’s not a great look with fastball command and that’s something that the ERA/xFIP discrepancy often hides. That’s why regression looks likely, but is never a certainty.
Left-hander Sean Newcomb will make his third start of the season. Newcomb has looked like a very interesting prospect in those 12.1 innings of work. He has a 2.19 ERA with a 4.01 FIP and a 4.27 xFIP. Newcomb has walked six, so control has been a problem, but that’s been a problem throughout his career. He’s just had the strikeout ability and the command to work around it. Newcomb is one of those “effectively wild” guys that is really hard to barrel and can get out of jams with weak contact or ugly swings.
It doesn’t come as a big surprise to me that Newcomb has an 11.2 percent swinging strike rate and a 37.4 percent chase rate through two starts. It’s going to take the league some time to adjust to that deceptive arm slot and his stuff.
I’d think about waiting around for the ERA/xFIP crowd to bite and then play back on the Braves here. Samardzija deserves better per the numbers, but maybe his command will keep holding him back. On the other side, I like Newcomb as an unfamiliar lefty making his first trip around the league. The Giants are in the bottom third of the league in walk rate and rank 29th in wOBA against LHP. This is a pretty good matchup for Newcomb, so wait for more value and take the Braves.
Toronto (-105) at Texas; Total: 11
We’ve got virtually a money line pick ‘em in a game projected to be high-scoring between the Blue Jays and the Rangers. Joe Biagini takes the hill for the Blue Jays looking to bounce back from an awful outing against the White Sox. Tyson Ross makes his second start of the season after a bunch of operations since the start of 2016.
The great Jeff Zimmerman wrote about Joe Biagini’s velocity drop back on June 15. His velocity has tailed off as a starter, which isn’t a big surprise, but the concerning thing is that the loss of velo has coincided with a big drop in swinging strike rate. The right-hander had been living right for a while in the face of declining velocity, but it came to a head last time out with seven runs allowed on eight hits. He recorded just three outs.
Biagini has gotten by because he induces a lot of ground balls and doesn’t walk anybody, but the Rangers aren’t going to walk a whole lot anyway. They have some ultra aggressive hitters. The way to beat Texas is to strike their hitters out. With Biagini’s declining ability to generate swings and misses, this looks like a bad matchup for him. The silver lining is the fact that he keeps the ball on the ground, but ground balls, like fly balls, are more hurtful in Texas than most other parks because the sun-baked infield plays very fast and hard.
I have no idea what to expect from Tyson Ross here. Ross gave up two runs on two hits with five strikeouts and three walks in his first MLB start of the season. He only made one start last year. He struggled in his four rehab starts with 11 walks and 16 runs allowed on 23 hits in 18.2 Triple-A innings. His velocity was way down, as Ross sat below 90 mph. He sat around 93 in 2015. He also used his changeup a lot more than we have ever seen, which is surprising. Over his last two seasons, Ross’s slider usage was above 40 percent. It was 23.2 percent in that last start.
Overall, it doesn’t look good for Ross. Maybe that was just one start and he was trying to get a feel for some different things, but a 23.2 percent changeup rate from a guy with a career 3.5 percent rate is concerning. Ross’s slider has been worth 70.6 runs above average in his career dating back to 2010. If he can’t throw that pitch, I’m worried.
With a high total, there’s not much margin for error to play the over. I can’t back either one of these pitchers.
Pittsburgh at Milwaukee (-120); Total: 9.5
The Brewers are looking to get back on track with Junior Guerra on the hill against Trevor Williams. This is a very big start for Guerra because the first two starters in this series, Matt Garza and Zach Davies, have not given Milwaukee anything. Unfortunately, Guerra looks like a ticking time bomb. The right-hander suffered a calf injury in his first start of the season, so he’s spent his last five starts trying to get a feel for his arsenal and build up his arm. He has a 2.84 ERA, but a 6.06 FIP and a 5.98 xFIP.
Guerra has an 89 percent LOB% with a really terrible three percent K%-BB%. That’s hideous. His BABIP is 10 points lower than his batting average against because six of the 22 hits he has allowed have left the ballpark. Guerra’s velocity is down more than a mile per hour from last season, which is a sign that he’s still working his way back to full strength. Those injuries in April for pitchers make it very hard to get into the rhythm of a season. They almost make it a bit of a throwaway season, to be honest. Guerra’s still getting lots of swings and misses, but he hasn’t had much control with a Zone% below 40 percent.
I’m going to be watching him closely over his next few outings. Five starts are enough to start building up the command and control and also get the velocity back. I’d like to see some clear improvements going forward. An improvement today might be enough against Trevor Williams, who has a 5.16 ERA with a 4.65 FIP and a 5.08 xFIP on the year. Williams doesn’t miss bats and doesn’t have great stuff, so this is a good matchup for the Milwaukee offense.
I’d look to back the Brewers here. Guerra has that huge ERA/xFIP discrepancy, which does worry me, but I think he should get stronger. Keep in mind that two components of FIP are K and BB. Guerra should see positive gains in both of those categories the rest of the way.
Houston (-120) at Oakland; Total: 9
Mike Fiers has seen his HR/FB% regress for a few starts in a row now and the results have been very impressive. The Astros are back on the warpath, shaking off two bad situational spots to club the Oakland A’s. Today, they’ll face left-hander Sean Manaea.
Fiers hasn’t allowed a home run in each of his last four starts. He gave up 18 in the previous nine starts. His HR/FB% was well over 30 percent for a while, but it’s down to 24.3 percent and his ERA is down to 4.00. The advanced metrics still don’t like him, but he got off to such a bad start that it will take a while for those to catch up. Fiers has allowed just five earned runs over his last four starts and has given the Astros some length in the process.
I don’t see anything overly significant in his pitch usage over his last four starts relative to the rest of the season. He’s been more consistent with his two-seamer usage, but that’s about it. PITCHf/x seems to have lost his cutter somewhere along the line and he’s used his changeup more. Maybe he shelved the cutter/slider. Maybe PITCHf/x isn’t sure how to classify his arsenal. Either way, Fiers has gotten better, as some of us expected he would. Nobody will carry a HR/FB% around like that all season long.
Sean Manaea is one of my favorite MLB pitchers. He’s got a 4.01 ERA with a 3.69 FIP and a 3.96 xFIP. Manaea has 73 strikeouts in 67.1 innings of work. He’s been pretty unlucky from a sequencing standpoint with a 67 percent LOB%, hence the ERA/FIP discrepancy. What’s interesting about this season for Manaea is that his fastball is nearly 16 runs better than it was last season per PITCHf/x pitch values, but his secondaries aren’t on last year’s pace. He has a swinging strike rate of 15 percent, which is crazy. Manaea isn’t among the ERA qualifiers, but qualified starters with a better swinging strike rate are Chris Sale and Max Scherzer. That’s it.
So, we’ll have to see what happens here. Fiers’s home run issues may have been solved and that’s the only way that Oakland scores. Manaea has been really good this season and deserves to have even better numbers. The under is certainly a consideration tonight.
MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com
Double-Play Picks
Cleveland Indians at Baltimore Orioles (+150, 9.5)
The Baltimore Orioles scratched out a 6-5 win at home over the Cleveland Indians on Tuesday night, however, the alarms in regards to their pitching staff continue to ring long and loud...much like the hits they've been giving up lately.
After last night's five runs allowed (all by stating pitcher Chris Tillman) the O's have now allowed five runs or more in 17 consecutive baseball games.
Tonight the Orioles will send one of their worst starters to the hill in Kevin Gausman. Gausman owns a 6.60 ERA on the season, a 5.09 ERA at home, and a very sloppy 9.19 ERA over his last three outings. His WHIP over his last three starts is 2.234 and he has an opponent's on base percentage of .467.
If the O's do their normal thing and give up a bunch of runs today they will be in big trouble with Carlos Carrasco toeing the rubber for the Tribe.
The Indians are 10-3 in Carrasco's 13 starts this season, 6-1 in his seven starting assignments on the road, and 7-1 in his last eight starts overall. On the road this season he owns a 2.89 ERA, 0.939 WHIP, and only two home runs allowed in seven starts.
The Indians will score plenty and the Orioles will not. The moneyline is slightly chalky at -170 but feel safe taking the Tribe on the runline. This feels like a 6-2 type of game.
Pick: Indians -1.5 (+100)
New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers (-190, 8.5)
Ok Cody Bellinger, we get it. You’re good.
The rookie outfielder just keeps hitting dingers and the Dodgers just keep rolling. Los Angeles thumped New York 12-0 in the second game of a four-game set Tuesday night and go for the series win when they host the Mets on Wednesday.
The Dodgers have been red-hot the past two weeks, going 11-1 in their last 12 games, scoring a whopping 7.4 runs per contest over that stretch. It’s no coincidence that as Bellinger’s bat has gotten white hot so have the Dodgers. Bellinger has hit 10 home runs in the last 10 games. Let me repeat that, Bellinger has hit 10 home runs in the last 10 games.
Thanks to the surge, Los Angeles now ranks fifth in runs per game, seventh in OPS and 14th in home runs. To make matters worse for the Mets, L.A. is even better at Dodger Stadium this season. They have scored the second most runs in the major leagues at home, while hitting 58 homers.
It will be Mets rookie Tyler Pill who will have to deal with the potent Dodgers lineup. The right-hander will be making just his third career start and is 0-1 with a respectable 3.48 ERA, but hasn’t faced anything like this Dodgers team.
The Dodgers counter with Rich Hill, who has had a bit of a tough time this season, dealing with a blister on his left middle finger. Hill is 3-3 with a 5.14 ERA and a 1.571 WHIP in 2017 and if there is only one thing the Mets can do right this season, it’s score runs.
They rank ninth in the Bigs in runs per game, 11th in OPS and sixth in home runs.
Oh yeah, the Over is 10-1 in the Dodgers last 11 games and 5-0 in their last five at home.
Pick: Over 8.5
Yesterday's Picks: 2-0
Season To Date: 70-56-7
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Jeff Hoffman, Colorado Rockies (4-0, 2.25 ERA, $544)
The Colorado Rockies are one of the hottest teams in baseball, winners of six straight and 13 of their last 16 and their talented young rotation, including Hoffman has been a big reason why.
The Rockies have won all five of Hoffman's starts since he has joined the rotation, mostly because he has been dealing. The rookie right-hander is 4-0 with a 2.05 ERA and a 0.946 WHIP while racking up 34 strikeouts to just six walks. Opponents are also hitting just .202 against him when he starts. Hoffman and the Rockies are -145 home faves against the Diamondbacks.
Slumping: James Paxton, Seattle Mariners (5-2, 3.23 ERA, $-140)
No one had a hotter start to the season than the Mariners' southpaw Paxton, but he has really cooled off since returning from injury at the end of May.
Paxton's last three starts in particular have been pretty rough. He is 1-2, but has a massive 9.95 ERA, with a 2.29 WHIP. Paxton and the Mariners are currently -141 home favorites tonight against the Tigers.
Wednesday's Top Trends
* The Cincinnati Reds are 1-10 in their last 11 overall. +110 today @ Rays.
* Over is 8-1 in the Washington Nationals' last nine overall. Nats/Marlins Total: 7.5.
* The Los Angeles Angels are 0-9 in Nolascos last nine starts. +165 today @ Yankees.
* The Houston Astros are 8-0 in the last eight meetings in Oakland. -135 today @ A's.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
There is a 40 percent chance of rain this evening in the Atlanta area where the Braves are scheduled to play the San Francisco Giants. The visiting Giants are -120 favorites and the total is set at 9.5.
The most notable wind today will be a hitter's wind in Kansas City where the Royals will entertain the Boston Red Sox this afternoon with a 15-18 mile per hour wind howling out to left-center field. The total is currently set at 9.5.
Our daily Wrigley Field check shows only a light eight mile per hour breeze blowing in from right field. The total for the game between the Cubs and the visiting Padres is set at 9.
Ump Of The Day
Ed Hickox: The Over is 6-0-1 in Hickox's last seven games calling balls and strikes. This is great news for Over bettors looking into the game tonight between the White Sox and Twins (total: 9.5).
It's also worth noting that Hickox also favors the home team at 9-3 this season. The Twins are big -200 home faves tonight with Jose Berrios on the mound.