MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, June 7th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Cardinals @ Reds
Wainwright is 4-0, 0.34 in his last four starts, three of which stayed under. Cardinals are 3-2 in his road starts.
Ableman is 1-1, 5.95 in his last four starts (over 4-4). Reds are 3-1 in his home starts.
Cardinals lost seven of last nine games; under is 10-4 in their last 14 games. Reds lost five of last seven games; over is 6-3 in their last nine home games.
Phillies @ Braves
Pivetta is 0-3, 5.12 in four starts this season (over 2-1-1). Nola is 0-3, 5.63 in his last three starts (over 3-3).
Colon is 0-2, 13.89 in his last three starts; over is 8-2 in his last ten. Atlanta split his four home starts. Garcia is 1-1, 1.66 in his last three starts; under is 5-1-1 in his last seven. Only two of his 10 starts have been at home.
Phillies lost five of last eight games; over is 6-2-2 in their last ten road games. Braves are 3-6 in last nine games; over is 11-3-2 in their last 16 home games.
Giants @ Brewers
Cain is 0-3, 6.11 in his last three starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Giants are 2-3 in his road starts.
Anderson is 2-0, 0.00 (14 IP) in his last two starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Milwaukee is 2-3 in his starts at Miller Park.
Giants lost five of last seven road games; over is 8-4 in their last 12 road games. Brewers lost seven of last ten home games; under is 5-3 in their last eight games.
Marlins @ Cubs
Locke allowed one run in 5.2 IP (80 PT) in his first ’17 start, vs Arizona.
Arrieta is 1-1, 3.00 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Cubs are 2-1 in his home starts.
Marlins won seven of last nine games; over is 7-3 in their last ten road games. Cubs won their last seven home games; under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games.
Padres @ Diamondbacks
Lamet is 2-0, 2.70 in his first two MLB starts (under 1-0-1).
Ray is 3-0, 0.00 (23.2 IP) in his last three starts, but is 0-2, 5.23 in his last three home starts; over is 4-1 in his home starts.
San Diego won five of last seven games; they’re 2-7 in road series openers. Under is 7-2-1 in their last ten games. Arizona lost its last three games but won six in a row at home; they’re 7-2 in home series openers. Under is 10-5 in their last 15 games.
Nationals @ Dodgers
Scherzer is 2-0, 1.02 in his last two starts; his last three all stayed under. Washington is 4-2 in his road starts.
McCarthy is 2-1, 1.69 in his last three starts; Dodgers are 4-1 in his home starts (over 3-2).
Nationals won eight of last ten games; four of their last six games went over. Dodgers won five of last seven home games; under is 8-3 in their last 11 games.
American League
Boston @ New York
Pomeranz is 2-0, 2.08 in his last two starts; Boston is 1-3 in his road starts. Over is 5-5 in his starts this season.
Tanaka is 0-4, 11.21 in his last four starts; over is 5-1 in his last six. New York is 3-2 in his home starts.
Red Sox are 10-4 in their last 14 games, 2-7 in road series openers. Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games. New York is 6-0 in game following its last six losses; they’re 5-3 in home series openers. Under is 5-1 in their last six home games.
White Sox @ Rays
Quintana is 0-3, 7.67 in his last five starts; three of his last four went over. Chicago is 2-3 in his road starts.
Archer is 1-2, 5.54 in his last four starts (over 8-4). Rays are 4-2 in his home starts.
Chicago lost its last five games, is 2-8 in road series openers. Over is 9-3 in their last 12 road games. Tampa Bay lost its last three games, is 3-6 in home series openers. Rays’ last five home games stayed under the total.
Angels @ Tigers
Chavez is 1-1, 6.06 in his last three starts; Angels are 1-4 in his road starts (over 3-2).
Norris 0-1, 5.60 in his last five starts (over 5-3-2). Detroit is 1-3 in his home starts.
Angels lost three of last four games, are 3-6 in road series openers. Under is 5-2 in their last seven road games. Tigers are 7-2 in last nine home games, 6-2 in home series openers. Six of their last seven games went over.
Astros @ Royals
Fiers is 1-1, 4.84 in his last four starts; Houston is 5-1 in his road starts (over 3-2-1). Paulino is
Junis allowed two runs in 4.2 IP (92 PT) in his first MLB start, at Minnesota.
Astros won their last 11 games; over is 6-1-1 in their last eight games. Royals are 5-4 in last nine games; under is 13-7 in their last 20 home games.
Blue Jays @ A’s
Estrada is 2-1, 3.04 in his last four road starts (under 6-5-1). Toronto won three of his last four road starts.
Hahn is 0-3, 6.84 in his last five starts; A’s are 2-1 in his home starts (over 3-0).
Toronto is 10-4 in its last 14 games; over is 11-5-1 in their last 17 road games. Oakland lost seven of last ten games; over is 12-4-1 in their last 17 home games.
Twins @ Mariners
Santiago is 0-3, 0-3, 8.53 in his last four starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight starts. Minnesota is 1-3 in his road starts.
Paxton is 2-0, 1.04 in his last three starts (under 4-2-1). He is 3-0, 0.71 in four home starts.
Minnesota is 15-3 in its last 18 road games, 7-1 in road series openers. Over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. Seattle won six of last seven games, is 7-2 in home series openers. Over is 13-6 in their last 19 home games.
Interleague
Pirates @ Orioles
Nova is 2-1, 2.97 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Pirates split his six road starts.
Gausman is 1-1, 5.06 in his last four starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Orioles are 5-1 in his home outings.
Pirates won four of last five road games, are 3-7 in road series openers. Over is 5-1 in their last six road games. Orioles are 4-10 in last 14 games, 9-1 in home series openers. Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
Mets @ Rangers
deGrom is 2-1, 4.31 in his last five starts; Mets are 4-2 in his road starts. Over is 5-2 in his last seven starts overall.
Ex-Met Gee is making his first ’17 start; he is 48-46, 4.09 in 124 big league starts. He is 3-4, 3.88 in nine AAA starts this season.
Mets lost four of last five games, are 5-2 in road series openers. Over is 13-1-1 in their last 15 road games. Texas is 2-10 in its last 12 games, 5-5 in home series openers. Over is 9-2 in its last 11 road games.
Indians @ Rockies
Clevinger is 2-2, 3.14 in five starts this season (under 4-1).
Senzatela is 4-1, 4.37 in his last six starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight. Colorado is 5-1 in his home starts.
Indians are 5-3 in last eight games, 1-5 in last six road series openers. Under is 16-4 in their last 20 road games. Rockies won three of last four games; they’re 6-3 in home series openers. Over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
StL-Cin: Wainwright 7-4; Adleman 4-4
Phil-Atl: Nola 2-4; Garcia 5-5
SF-Mil: Cain 5-6; Anderson 6-5
Mia-Chi: Locke 0-1; Arrieta 5-6
SD-Ariz: Lamet 2-0; Ray 7-4
Wash-LA: Scherzer 7-4; McCarthy 6-3
American League
Bos-NY: Pomeranz 6-4; Tanaka 5-6 (0-4 last 4)
Chi-TB: Quintana 4-7; Archer 7-5
LA-Det: Chavez 5-6; Norris 5-5
Hst-KC: Paulino 1-0; Junis 1-0
Tor-A’s: Estrada 6-6; Hahn 2-6 (0-3 last 3)
Minn-Sea: Santiago 5-6; Paxton 4-3
Interleague
Pitt-Balt: Nova 6-5; Gausman 6-6
NY-Tex: deGrom 6-5; Gee 0-0
Clev-Colo: Clevinger 2-3; Senzatela 8-3
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
StL-Cin: Wainwright 1-11; Adleman 4-8
Phil-Atl: Nola 2-6; Garcia 2-10
SF-Mil: Cain 5-11; Anderson 2-11
Mia-Chi: Locke 0-1; Arrieta 3-11
SD-Ariz: Lamet 0-2; Ray 4-11
Wash-LA: Scherzer 2-11; McCarthy 1-9
American League
Bos-NY: Pomeranz 4-10; Tanaka 5-11
Chi-TB: Quintana 2-11; Archer 3-12
LA-Det: Chavez 1-11; Norris 1-10
Hst-KC: Paulino 0-1; Junis 0-1
Tor-A’s: Estrada 5-12 (4 of last 5); Hahn 4-8
Minn-Sea: Santiago 2-11; Paxton 0-7
Interleague
Pitt-Balt: Nova 2-11; Gausman 3-12
NY-Tex: deGrom 4-11; Gee 0-0
Clev-Colo: Clevinger 0-5; Senzatela 4-11
Umpires
National League
StL-Cin: Underdogs won four of last six Rackley games.
Phil-Atl: Three of last four Dreckman games stayed under.
SF-Mil: Road team won last six Conroy games.
Mia-Chi: Favorites won five of last six Emmel games.
Wash-LA: Over is 9-2 in Hernandez games this season.
American League
Hst-KC: Last three Diaz games stayed under.
Tor-A’s: Over is 5-2-1 in Hoberg games this season.
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 30-15 AL, favorites +$40
AL @ NL– 29-25 AL, favorites +$302
Total: 59-40 AL, favorites +$342
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 26-23-1
AL @ NL: Over 31-19-1
Total: Over 57-42-2
Armadillosports.com
MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners
Minnesota has been a road warriors of late going 12-2 in an opposing park. Twins have also been a solid proposition overall in the first game of a series (10-3). Expect the Twins to do what they typically do in Seattle, and that is win. They're, 8-3 last 11 meetings in Seattle including a 5-0 streak.
Tuesday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Red Sox (10-4 past 14 games overall)
The Red Sox will renew acquaintances with their biggest rivals, the New York Yankees, in the Bronx on Tuesday night. Sure, Boston hasn't been nearly as hot as the Houston Astros, who continue their series in Kansas City looking to run their win streak to 12 games, but the Red Sox have been doing pretty well. The Red Sox have allowed just 3.2 runs per game over the past 11 outings. Boston has won eight of their past 10 games against teams with a winning record, they're 8-2 in their past 10 against right-handed starting pitching and they're 5-2 in Drew Pomeranz's past seven outings against divisional foes.
Coldest team Athletics (2-6 past eight games, 5-13 past 18 overall)
The Athletics picked up a victory in the series opener against the Blue Jays, but it was a rare solid pitching effort. The A's have allowed 7.0 runs per game over their past nine outings. Oakland has posted a 1-5 record over the past six outings by Jesse Hahn, including an 0-4 mark in his past four outings against teams with a losing overall mark. The A's are an impressive 15-7 over their past 22 home games, but just 5-11 in the past 16 against teams with a losing record and 3-7 in their past 10 overall. Oakland is also just 2-6 in their past eight vs. RHP.
Hottest pitcher: Max Scherzer, Nationals (6-3, 2.56 ERA)
The Nationals used a red-hot Gio Gonzalez to mow down the Dodgers in Los Angeles in Monday's series opener, now they'll turn to the multi-colored eyes of Max Scherzer to get it done in Game 2 of the series. The Nats have won four in a row against National League West foes while picking up victories in seven of their past eight road affairs. In addition, they'll go up against RHP Brandon McCarthy, and the Nats are 4-1 in their past five against righties. They're also an impressive 8-2 in Scherzer's past 10 outings when working on five days of rest, and they're 21-7 in his past 28 assignments on the road.
Coldest pitcher: Jose Quintana, White Sox (2-7, 5.60 ERA)
Quintana is tied for the league lead with seven losses, and he has managed a dismal 5.60 ERA across 11 starts while serving up 10 homers across 64 1/3 innings. The wheels have really come off over the past two outings, allowing 15 runs with 18 hits over the past seven innings across two starts as his ERA has ballooned from 3.92 to 5.60 just since May 19. Chicago is just 5-16 over their past 21 road outings, 3-13 in their past 16 road outings against teams with a winning home record and 1-6 in their past seven American League East opponents. The Pale Hose are also 0-9 in Q's past nine starts in the first game of a new series.
Biggest UNDER run: Red Sox (8-3 past 11 games overall)
The 'under' has been a frequent happening for Boston lately, going 8-3 in their past 11 games overall. In addition, the under has hit in five of the past seven for the Red Sox following a win. Drew Pomeranz is also a good bet to keep the under streak going, cashing in nine of his past 11 road outings. The under is also 14-6-2 in their past 22 starts overall while going 8-1-2 in Pomeranz's past 11 starts against a team with a winning record. The under is also 6-2-2 in his past 10 starts against divisional foes.
Biggest OVER run: Phillies (5-1 past six games, 19-7-1 past 27 road outings)
Holding a Phillies over ticket has been a winning proposition lately. The over is 5-1 in their past six outings, 4-1 in their past five divisional games and 4-1 in their past five against left-handed pitching. In addition, the over is 19-7-1 in their past 27 games on the road while cashing in nine of Aaron Nola's past 11 assignments away from home. The over is also 11-4 in Nola's past 15 starts overall while going 5-2 in his past seven against teams with a losing record. For Atlanta, the over is 4-0 in their past four at home vs. RHP and 7-3-1 in their past 11 games overall against a righty.
Matchup to watch: Diamondbacks vs. Padres
The Padres and Diamondbacks open a set in Arizona on Tuesday night, and San Diego turns to rookie Dinelson Lamet to put the brakes on a two-game slide. The rookie is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA across 10.0 innings with 16 strikeouts since his recall from Triple-A Reno. San Diego has won five of their past seven games overall, although they're just 2-8 in their past 10 divisional games while going 0-5 in their past five tries against a left-handed starting pitcher. San Diego is also a dismal 5-13 in their past 18 against teams with a winning overall mark. Arizona, on the other hand, has won four straight at home vs. RHP while going 7-1 in Robbie Ray's past eight tries against divisional foes and 6-1 in his past seven assignments against teams with a losing overall mark.
Betcha didn’t know: Coors Field is usually the kiss of death for a pitcher's bottom line, especially a young pitcher in the embryonic stages of his career. However, Antonio Senzatela hasn't been fazed by the rarefied air of Denver, going 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA over his first six career outings at Coors Field, while going 7-2 with a 3.49 ERA overall on the season. Mike Clevinger has pitched well for the Indians, giving them another young gun in their rotation. He is 2-0 with 12 2/3 scoreless innings on the road so far this season. The bullpen of the Indians leads the majors with a 2.19 ERA, too, although that mark will certainly be put to the test in Denver.
Biggest public favorite: Mariners (-210) vs. Twins
Biggest public underdog: Rangers (+140) vs. Mets
Biggest line move: Mariners (-180 to -210) vs. Twins
Red Sox, Yankees meet in NY
By: StatFox.com
The Red Sox will be looking to win their third straight game when they face the Yankees on Tuesday.
Boston has won two straight games and four of its past six, but that doesn’t matter coming into this one. This matchup with the Yankees is all about pride, as this is one of the greatest rivalries in sports. Both teams are going to want to win this series badly, but the Yankees aren’t playing their best ball coming into this one. New York has lost four of its past seven games entering Tuesday, and the team desperately needs to get back on track fast. The Yankees know that they can’t win this series without bringing their A game, and the same goes for RHP Masahiro Tanaka (5-5, 6.34 ERA, 56 K) in this start. The righty has really struggled this season, and it’s very odd for a guy that has been a model of consistency throughout his career. If he’s not locked in for this one then it’s hard to imagine him turning things around this year. On the mound for the Red Sox, meanwhile, is LHP Drew Pomeranz (5-3, 4.24 ERA, 64 K). Pomeranz has been pitching very well for Boston as of late, so this start certainly features two guys with different confidence levels. One thing that should make New York feel well is the fact that the team is 14-2 against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the past two seasons. As for injuries, 2B Dustin Pedroia (Wrist) is out for the Red Sox and OF Jacoby Ellsbury (Concussion) is still out for the Yankees.
The Red Sox are playing well right now and Drew Pomeranz is the perfect guy to send to the hill on Tuesday. Over his past two starts, Pomeranz has allowed just three earned runs in 13 innings of work. He struck out 19 batters over those two appearances, and the lefty seems to have found the form that made him one of the best pitchers in the National League a year ago. Pomeranz has not, however, faced the Yankees in Yankee Stadium as a member of the Red Sox. That is a whole new challenge, as it’s obviously very easy to have a bad day in a bandbox like that. Offensively, the Sox will be hoping that both OF Mookie Betts (.264 BA, 9 HR, 33 RBI) and SS Xander Bogaerts (.330 BA, 2 HR, 21 RBI) can come up big in this one. Betts has really had a down year this season, and he is a guy that should creep back up towards the .300 mark this season. He is far too good of a hitter to stay where he is now. Bogaerts, meanwhile, has been great this season. Boston just needs him to keep getting on base, which hasn’t been an issue this year.
The Yankees were hoping that Tanaka’s 7.1 innings of one-run ball against the Athletics on May 26 would get him going for the rest of the season, but he came back and let up seven earned in 5.2 innings against the Orioles in the very next start. Tanaka’s stuff just has not been the same this season, and it’s starting to get pretty late in the year. There is definitely concern that he will not be able to turn it around, but he deserves the benefit of the doubt. Tanaka has been an ace throughout his entire career, so perhaps he’ll make some adjustments to make things right. Offensively, OF Aaron Judge (.324 BA, 18 HR, 41 RBI) is somebody the Yankees will be counting on here. Judge has been one of the best hitters in baseball this season, and he should be a tough matchup for Pomeranz. The Yankees could also get a spark from C Gary Sanchez (.259 BA, 6 HR, 15 RBI) here. Sanchez has just five homers in 29 games this season, and he is way too good of a power hitter for his homers to stay down. Look for him to put together a streak pretty soon, and don’t be surprised if it starts on Tuesday.
Dave's MLB Tuesday
By Dave Essler
Cardinals/Reds: With what Wainright has done lately I was admittedly surprised to the the Cardinals so cheap. I thought perhaps Cincinnati had had great success against him, knowing they've seen plenty of him, but that's not really the case. Then I thought he might have had all those shut outs against weak teams, but that's not the case, either. Three of them were against the Cubs, Dodgers, and Rockies. It's not like Adleman has set the world on fire, and in fact his better starts were against weaker hitting teams, and the Cardinals have seen him this season. We'll wait that one out, but I lean under (because Great American totals are always inflated) at least for the F5, choosing not to trust either bullpen.
Braves/Phillies: This will be Atlanta's second game back so the spot might favor them. It's hard to fathom that Colon was in the -115 range and now Garcia is only about a dime more, with early action on the Phillies. Any final answer here will be based off of what transpires on Monday night between these two, just as the Reds/Cards game will be. Garcia and Nola both tend to keep the ball down, so my inclination is to look at the under, and to be honest the Braves are the better team and Garcia is the better pitcher, so I do know I won't take the Phillies on the road.
Giants/Brewers: For a few games Cain has been a bettors' darling and has started to induce a lot more ground ball outs, but his home/road splits are deplorable, which is no reference to any political party. However, Wisconsin was one of "those" states. With no Braun, the only Brewer to really have any at bats against Cain, the Giants might be a reasonable bet, at least F5. Anderson has had two GREAT games, but they came with a price in 104/114 pitches which is a lot for him. That would point me towards a F5 under, and pick your bullpen poison. The Giants might offer some underdog love here.
Miami/Cubs: Another game that will have to wait for the Monday effect, but there is no way Arrieta is worth -185 to anyone. With that in mind, Locke looked pretty good in his first start, but the Cubs saw quite a bit of him when he was in the same division with the Pirates. And of course they hit him hard. I would like to think that game is high scoring and of course we won't have a total until tomorrow, but there is a breeze blowing in from RF - so we might get a better number than you think.
Padres/D-Backs: Two rested teams and Lamet for the Padres struck our eight Cubs and eight Mets in his first two outings. I have to think he can excel in Arizona, too. Ray has been great, but I don't like the fact that he threw 115 pitches in the nine inning shutout of the Pirates, which was his third straight 100+ pitch game. He was in that spot earlier this season and subsequently drubbed by Detroit. I do realize that the Padres are not the Tigers, but it's been my experience that when a decent pitcher gets beaten it's by someone that's seen a fair bit of him. Arizona is simply not worth -170 here, and San Diego might be part of another PDA, at least on the RL as we do know they're getting nine at bats.
Washington/Dodgers: Being able to bet on Max at only -115 in intriguing, but unless he's really dominant then that brings the Nationals bullpen into play, and that is not a good thing. McCarthy has had a blister and been day-to-day. I'm sure it's fine, but it's a yellow flag of course. It's a big park so I could look at this under fairly closely, and am somewhat surprised to see it at 7.5 (O -120).
Boston/Yankees: Over the course of time it's been SOP to take Tanaka at home and fade him on the road, but I think over the last half of last season an into this one that's out the window. He had his best outing of the season against Boston earlier, a three-hit shutout in Fenway. I have to think Boston get's some pay back here, but it's hard not to improve off a shut out. He did throw quite a few pitches in his last two games, so I do think the New York bullpen is imminent sooner rather than later. Pomeranz always scares me, but New York hasn't done a lot with him and Boston's pen has been in great form lately. It's tough to bet against a 17-8 team at home, and at -115 they're certainly begging people to take New York, and I don't think it's that easy.
White Sox/Rays: I have been against Archer in almost every one of his starts. He continues to throw a lot of pitches and get yanked in the 6th inning which brings in the Rays pen way too early when I bet on him. A season-high in pitches in his last game tells me the likelihood of that happening here isn't far removed.The last time he threw close to that many he lasted six innings and lost to Toronto, so any Rays bet is F5 since their bullpen is on full-tilt lately. Quintana was simply lit up in both his last starts, and lit with a capital "L." That clearly ups his value and he does have a good upside, but I'm not sure it's enough since the White Sox pen has been even worse than the Rays. Perhaps we'll look at the Rays F5 and the over, maybe in-game if it starts slow.
Angels/Tigers: This line is further testimony to how far the Angels have fallen. Daniel Norris and the Tigers bullpen is -140 and Norris hasn't made it through the 7th inning the season. Even though Detroit's back end has been better lately, I think you have to consider that their last three series' were against the White Sox an Royals. Chavez is off his best outing of the season, and he capable because he does throw strikes. Their pen has been good enough to think the RL might be doable here, but Andrleton Simmons is still questionable, and they do need him.
Astros/Royals: Since this is game two of the series, Monday's game has bearing here. I don't think there's any way to know what Paulino brings, and the Royals haven't seen him, which could make it tough. In two AAA years he's not overly impressive. He's a strike out pitcher who at times can have control problems. Jake Junis is only 24 and has worked his way up, and of course I'd like to take a shot with the Royals, or at least look at it. And I might. In seven games at Omaha this season he only allowed three HR's, walked eight, and struck out 57 in 42 innings. That's worth a look at least for the first five.
Toronto/Oakland: I've always been a fan of fading the Jays in a bigger park where the likelihood of back-to-back-to-back HR's is far less. Oakland is by far one of the best pitchers' parks in baseball. It's a park where Estrada may well get away with his huge fly ball ratio, and the A's have seen very little of him, which certainly makes me think Jays F5 at least. I work very hard at not taking pitchers coming off the DL, and that's what Hahn's doing here. The case FOR Hahn is that he rarely give up the long ball, so F5 under is also a real option here. Toronto has the somewhat better bullpen, so it's hard to make the Oakland case here. It's another game that might start slow, so an in-game over at 7 is something I'll look for.
Minnesota/Seattle: I am aware that the Mariners are the better team and that Paxton is back to his old un-hittable self. The downside is that he hasn't been throwing deep - only 5+ innings his last two starts. The point is that Seattle being -200 certainly seems a bit steep, especially when you consider that when Felix was pitching they were never more than a -145 favorite. The problem with any bet on the Twins is that Santiago won't be around in the late innings and the Twins pen has been one of the worst in baseball over the last 7-10 days. Never say never, but I can't find an avenue for taking Minnesota. Which may mean take them!
Pittsburgh/Baltimore: My first thought in these IL games is too look at the DH/no DH thing, and of course the Pirates one. Their offense woke up some in New York, but that may be overshadowed by the fact that the Orioles saw a ton of Nova when he was with the Yankees. Trumbo an Davis both crushed him, and that's probably enough to keep any thought of taking Pittsburgh out of the equation. However, Gausman isn't someone I normally want any part of. I have to think both teams score here.
Mets/Rangers: The good news for the Mets is that DeGrom doesn't have to hit. The bad news is that he has to pitch to a DH. I can't underestimate the ten at-bats Lucroy (four hits) had against him in the NL because it seems that when Lucroy hits the Rangers score. Napoli is questionable, but the Mets at -140 on the road isn't a bet I'm prepared to make. And here's why - one of the situations I do like to play on is a pitcher against his former team, and that's Dillion Gee. Yes, he gave up four runs in four innings to Houston in his return, but none (zero) of them were earned runs. Texas has the better bullpen, so they are a live dog as far as I am concerned.
Indians/Rockies: So the Rockies are now underdogs to an AL team that has to have Clevinger bat. I don't think I'll buy into that one, I don't care how good he is. It's Coors Field, which can certainly get into someone's head in a hurry, if nothing else. He's allowed two home runs in each of his last two starts, and I almost don't care if it's Rex Brothers pitching for the Rockies. But, I think the best bet here might be the under 11, or the Rockies. I can't help but think even Cleveland's bullpen has those fences in the sight of the eyes in back of their heads.
Tuesday's Best Bet
By Sportsbook.ag
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Sportsbook.ag Odds: St. Louis (-131), Cincinnati (+121); Total set at 9.5
One bad inning late by starter Carlos Martinez cost St. Louis the opener of this series last night as a 2-0 lead quickly turned into a 4-2 deficit that the Cardinals bats had very little time to overcome. To be fair, St Louis' offense should have been able to put a few more tallies on the board earlier, but sometimes that's just baseball and you move on.
Tonight is Game 2 of this four-game set and the Cardinals are hoping to halt this four-game losing streak they are on. All four losses have come on the road to division rivals – not something any MLB team wants to do – but they do get to face a Reds starter in Tim Adleman who they've already beat up on once this year.
With just three wins over their last 10 games, backing the Cardinals as road favs may be tough for some, but this situation tonight sets up rather well for them. For one, they get to face a guy in Adleman who they tagged for six runs in just 5.1 innings earlier this year en route to a 7-5 win.
Secondly, of the three wins over their last 10 games for the Cardinals, two of them have come with tonight's starter Adam Wainwright on the hill and the veteran righty has been lights out for the Cardinals in those outings. Wainwright's last two starts have both been shutout victories for St. Louis, and if he can continue that strong pitching tonight, I'm sure the Cardinals bats will do a bit more than they did 24 hours ago to help him out. We also can't forget about the fact that St. Louis is on a 38-13 SU run with Wainwright on the hill after just four days off, and 7-3 SU in his last 10 starts away from home.
St. Louis isn't as talented and deep as they have been in recent memory as the 26-29 SU record shows. However, after putting up this run of futility lately against some very good teams from Colorado, LAD, and the Cubs, this series with Cincinnati starts a stretch of very winnable baseball for St. Louis to get back in the chase.
It didn't work out for them last night as a bad 7th inning by Martinez spoiled a very good start, but with three more games against the Reds this week, before going home to play the Phillies and Brewers, this is definitely a stretch in the Cardinals schedule they've got to try and take advantage of.
Cincinnati may have a similar record (26-30 SU) to St Louis, but it could be argued that they've overacheived a touch to get to that point. In the previous two series with the Redbirds this year (five games), no team has won back-to-back games yet, and the Reds aren't about to snap that tonight.
Cincinnati is on a 1-5 SU run after allowing two runs or less in their last game, and Adleman's 4.89 ERA should climb after tonight. The Reds are 4-4 SU in Adleman's eight starts this year, but if it wasn't for the 5.4 runs/game he's gotten in support from his teammates – a number that has nothing to do but regress – that record would be a lot worse.
Best Bet: St. Louis -131
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Double-Play Picks
San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers (-130, 9)
The Giants opened their four-game series in Milwaukee on Monday night with a tidy 7-2 victory over the Brewers. Just as we predicted in yesterday's Line Drive, the Brewers' bullpen was a problem and allowed five runs in the late innings to give the game away.
Yesterday we went with a First Five Innings wager on the Brewers and managed to escape with a 2-2 Push. We're going back to the well on more time Tuesday night.
This matchup of starting pitchers comes down to home/road splits. Matt Cain gets the ball for the Giants and he owns a dismal 0-2 win/loss record with an ERA of 8.28 on the road this season. His opponents on base percentage is at .402 with a massive WHIP of 1.96.
Chase Anderson, on the other hand, owns a 2.12 ERA when throwing from the Miller Park rubber in 2017 with an opponents on base percentage of .279 and a WHIP of 1.11.
One aspect of the Brewers that we don't trust tonight (or seemingly ever) is their bullpen. They possess one of the worst bullpens in baseball over the first two months of the season with an ERA of 4.11, 11 blown saves (second most in MLB), and a major league high 17 losses (including last night).
All of this info wrapped up together is screaming for another First Five Innings wager on the Milwaukee Brewers.
Pick: Brewers 1st 5 innings (-135)
St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds (+113, 9.5)
The Cardinals were still licking their wounds after getting swept this past weekend against the Cubs and dropped their opener with the Reds Monday night in Cincinnati. St. Louis will look to get back on track and even their four-game set at one.
Luckily for the Cards, they couldn’t be sending a better guy to the mound to snap a losing streak. Adam Wainwright toes the rubber for Game 2 and the veteran right-hander is looking like his old self. Wainwright has allowed just one earned run in his last four starts, scattering just 16 hits over 26.1 innings of work. That equates to a 0.34 ERA and a 0.911 WHIP in those four starts.
The Reds counter with Tim Adleman. The 29-year-old second year right-hander has struggled versus the Cardinals during his young career. Adleman is 1-2 in three career starts against St. Louis, pitching to a 5.19 ERA. That includes a meeting earlier this season, back on April 28th, when the Cardinals chased him from the game after six runs (five earned) on eight hits, plus two home runs, in 5.1 innings of work.
The Reds also rank last in the majors in starter ERA at 6.06 and rank 27th in quality starts with just 20.
Cincinnati can score runs, but Wainwright is more than capable of shutting them down and look for the opportunistic St. Louis bats to take advantage early versus Adelman. Look for Wainwright to keep rolling.
Pick: Cardinals -123
Yesterday's Picks: 1-0-1
Season To Date: 55-43-6
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Robbie Ray, Arizona Diamondbacks (5-3, 3.00 ERA, $250)
The Houston Astros have been awesome so far in 2017 (and their current 11-game road winning streak is very impressive), but for our money the biggest story across Major League Baseball over the past few weeks has been Robbie Ray of the Diamondbacks.
He's had his struggles in the past, and has been one of those starters that you look for on the schedule as a very strong fade option, but something has clicked on for him over his last three starts. 23.2 innings, zero runs allowed, six hits allowed, 25 K/3 BB...it simply doesn't get any better than those number over a three-game span.
Ray and the D-Backs are big -200 favorites at home tonight against the Padres.
Slumping: Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox (2-7, 5.60 ERA, $-314)
If Jose Quintana has any desire of getting out of Chicago and pitching for a contending team at any point this season he had better start pitching better...soon.
Over his last two starts, Quintana has hardly looked like a starting pitcher who belongs in the major leagues, let alone someone who should be in the starting rotation for a potential playoff team. Seven total innings over his last two starts with 15 hits allowed and an ERA of 19.29. Good luck getting any top prospects in return, Mr. Hahn.
Quintana and the White Sox are +155 underdogs tonight in Tampa against Chris Archer and the Rays.
Tuesday's Top Trends
* The Chicago White Sox are 3-13 in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. +155 today @ Rays.
* The Miami Marlins are 0-6 in the last 6 meetings in Chicago. +160 today @ Cubs.
* Over is 15-3-3 in The New York Mets' last 21 road games. Mets/Rangers Total: 9.5.
* The Houston Astros have won their last 11 overall and their last 11 road games. -140 today @ Royals.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
There is no precipitation in the MLB forecast for today, which is great news.
Hitter's winds could be a factor in a few ballparks this evening:
- Cardinals at Reds (Total: 9): 10 MPH wind blowing out to right field.
- Angels at Tigers (Total: 9): 13-15 MPH wind blowing out to right-center field.
- Mets at Rangers (Total: 9.5): 10 MPH wind blowing out to right field.
- Blue Jays at Athletics (Total: 8 ): 13-15 MPH wind blowing out to center field.
The daily check of the winds at Wrigley Field in Chicago shows that there will be a 12-15 miles per hour wind blowing in from left field.
Ump Of The Day
Pat Hoberg: Pretty good news for the Oakland A's today as Pat Hoberg will be calling balls and strikes for their game tonight against the Toronto Blue Jays. There have been 88 umpires thus far in 2017 who have officiated at least one game behind home plate and Hoberg ranks as the No. 12 homer umpire at 6-2. The A's have also been very successful with Hoberg behind the dish, winning five of their last six games with him in control.
The A's are +130 home underdogs tonight.