MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, June 7th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Cardinals @ Reds
Lynn is 0-2, 4.07 in his last four starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven starts. Cardinals lost his last three road starts.
Arroyo is 0-2, 6.75 in his last four starts; over is 6-3 in his last nine. Reds are 4-2 in his home starts.
Cardinals lost eight of last ten games; under is 10-5 in their last 15 games. Reds are 5-4 in last nine home games; over is 6-3 in their last nine games overall.
Phillies @ Braves
Eickhoff is 0-5, 7.60 in his last seven starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. He is 0-4, 5.10 in five road starts.
Foltynewicz is 3-1, 3.54 in his last five starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. Braves split his four home starts.
Phillies won their last four games; over is 6-3-2 in their last 11 road games. Braves are 3-7 in last ten games; over is 11-4-2 in their last 17 home games.
Giants @ Brewers
Blach is 4-0, 1.76 in his last four starts, last three of which went over. Giants won two of his three road starts.
Nelson is 2-1, 2.02 in his last six starts (under 4-2). Milwaukee is 2-5 in his home starts.
Giants lost six of last eight road games; over is 8-5 in their last 13 road games. Brewers lost seven of last 11 home games; under is 6-3 in their last nine games.
Marlins @ Cubs
Urena is 2-2, 6.23 in his last five starts (over 4-1).
Lackey is 0-2, 6.35 in his last three starts; over is 6-3 in his last nine. Cubs won three of his last four home starts.
Marlins won seven of last ten games, but lost last two; over is 8-3 in their last 11 road games. Cubs won their last eight home games; under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games.
Padres @ Diamondbacks
San Diego is 0-3 in Perdomo’s road starts (0-1, 4.50); Under is 5-2 in his last seven starts.
Greinke is 5-1, 3.16 in his last six starts (under 5-0-1). Arizona is 6-1 in his home starts.
San Diego won five of last eight games; under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games. Arizona won its last seven home games; under is 10-6 in their last 16 games.
Nationals @ Dodgers
Strasburg is 4-0, 2.28 in his last four starts (under 7-4). Washington won his last five road starts.
Kershaw is 4-0, 1.94 in his last six starts; over is 4-2 in his home starts. Dodgers won five of his six starts at home.
Nationals won nine of last 11 games; under is 9-4 in their last 13 games. Dodgers lost their last three games; under is 9-3 in their last 12 games.
American League
Boston @ New York
Porcello is 1-3, 5.46 in his last five starts; Boston is 3-2 in his road starts. Under is 5-3-1 in his last nine starts.
Sabathia is 4-0, 1.85 in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. New York is 4-0 in his home starts.
Red Sox are 11-4 in their last 14 games; under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games. New York lost three of its last four games. Under is 6-1 in their last seven home games.
White Sox @ Rays
Pelfrey is 2-0, 1.69 in his last three starts (over 4-4). Chicago split his four road starts.
Faria is making his MLB debut; he is 6-1, 3.07 in 11 AAA starts this season.
Chicago lost five of its last six games; over is 9-4 in their last 13 road games. Tampa Bay lost its last four games; Rays’ last six home games stayed under the total.
Angels @ Tigers
Meyer is 2-2, 5.22 in six starts this season (over 4-2).
Fulmer is 4-2, 3.27 in his last six starts; over is 5-2-1 in his last eight. Detroit is 4-1 in his home starts.
Angels lost three of last five games; under is 6-2 in their last eight road games. Tigers are 7-3 in last ten home games; six of their last eight games went over.
Astros @ Royals
Keuchel is 9-0, 1.90 in 11 starts this season; over is 4-2 in his last six. Astros are 6-0 in his road starts.
Vargas is 2-0, 1.23 in his last two starts (under 9-2). Royals are 4-2 in his home starts.
Astros won 11 of their last 12 games; over is 7-1-1 in their last nine games. Royals are 6-4 in last ten games; over is 7-4 in their last eleven games.
Blue Jays @ A’s
Liriano is 2-0, 7.47 in his last four starts; his last three starts went over the total. He is 0-1, 9.64 in three road starts this season.
Cotton is 0-3, 8.27 in his last three starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five. A’s are 1-3 in his home starts.
Toronto lost four of its last six games; under is 3-0-1 in their last four games. Oakland won three of its last four games; over is 12-5-1 in their last 18 home games.
Twins @ Mariners
Mejia is 1-0, 3.00 in his last three starts (under 4-1-1).
Gallardo is 0-3, 13.50 in his last three starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Seattle is 1-5 in his home starts.
Minnesota is 15-4 in its last 19 road games; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. Seattle won seven of last eight games; over is 14-6 in their last 20 home games.
Interleague
Pirates @ Orioles
Kuhl is 0-3, 6.56 in his last five starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. He is 0-2, 4.22 in his four road outings.
Miley is 1-2, 4.50 in his last four starts; Orioles are 2-3 in his home starts. Under is 3-2 in his home starts.
Pirates won four of last six road games; over is 6-1 in their last seven road games. Orioles are 5-10 in last 14 games; over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
Mets @ Rangers
Wheeler is 2-1, 2.76 in his last five starts (over 7-2-1). Mets split his four road starts.
Darvish is 0-2, 4.91 in his last two starts; his last six starts stayed under the total. Texas is 4-4 in his home starts.
Mets lost five of last six games; over is 14-1-1 in their last 16 road games. Texas is 3-10 in its last 13 games; over is 10-2 in its last 12 road games.
Indians @ Rockies
Bauer 3-0, 3.91 in his last five starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Indians split his six road starts. Bauer started a game Sunday, but pitched only 1.2 innings because of rain.
Freeland is 3-1, 4.56 in his last four starts (over 3-1).
Indians lost three of last four games; under is 16-5 in their last 21 road games. Rockies won four of last five games; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
StL-Cin: Lynn 5-6; Arroyo 6-5
Phil-Atl: Eickhoff 2-9; Foltynewicz 3-7
SF-Mil: Blach 4-4 (4-0 last 4); Nelson 4-7
Mia-Chi: Urena 4-2; Lackey 6-5
SD-Ariz: Perdomo 3-6; Greinke 8-4
Wash-LA: Strasburg 9-2; Kershaw 10-2
American League
Bos-NY: Porcello 5-7; Sabathia 9-2
Chi-TB: Pelfrey 3-5; Faria 0-0
LA-Det: Meyer 2-4; Fulmer 7-4
Hst-KC: Keuchel 10-1; Vargas 7-4
Tor-A’s: Liriano 5-3; Cotton 3-6
Minn-Sea: Mejia 3-3; Gallardo 3-8
Interleague
Pitt-Balt: Kuhl 3-8; Miley 6-5
NY-Tex: Wheeler 4-6; Darvish 7-5
Clev-Colo: Bauer 6-5; Freeland 8-3
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
StL-Cin: Lynn 4-11; Arroyo 5-11
Phil-Atl: Eickhoff 4-11; Foltynewicz 1-10
SF-Mil: Blach 1-8; Nelson 2-11
Mia-Chi: Urena 1-6; Lackey 7-11
SD-Ariz: Perdomo 5-9; Greinke 0-12
Wash-LA: Strasburg 1-11; Kershaw 4-12
American League
Bos-NY: Porcello 3-12; Sabathia 3-11
Chi-TB: Pelfrey 2-8; Faria 0-0
LA-Det: Meyer 4-6; Fulmer 4-11
Hst-KC: Keuchel 2-11; Vargas 2-11
Tor-A’s: Liriano 2-8; Cotton 5-9
Minn-Sea: Mejia 2-6; Gallardo 5-11
Interleague
Pitt-Balt: Kuhl 4-11; Miley 4-11
NY-Tex: Wheeler 3-10; Darvish 2-12
Clev-Colo: Bauer 3-11; Freeland 2-11
Umpires
National League
StL-Cin: Over is 8-2 in Marquez games this season.
Phil-Atl: Over is 6-3 in last nine Everitt games.
SF-Mil: Over is 3-1-1 in last five Woodring games.
Mia-Chi: Over is 7-1-2 in Wolcott games this season.
SD-Ariz: Last four Fagan games went over the total.
Wash-LA: Home team is 8-0 in Whitson games this year.
American League
Bos-NY: Under is 6-3 in last nine Cuzzi games.
Chi-TB: Over is 7-4-1 in last dozen Miller games.
LA-Det: Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Porter games.
Hst-KC: Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Eddings games.
Tor-A’s: Four of last five Segal games went over.
Minn-Sea: Four of last five Iassogna games went over.
Interleague
Pitt-Balt: Under is 4-2 in Hudson games this season.
NY-Tex: Home team is 9-0 in Nauert games this season.
Clev-Colo: Over is 7-1-2 in Wolf games this season.
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 32-15 AL, favorites +$10
AL @ NL– 29-26 AL, favorites +$302
Total: 61-41 AL, favorites +$312
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 28-23-1
AL @ NL: Over 32-19-1
Total: Over 60-42-2
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Double-Play Picks
St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds (+120, 9.5)
"Insanity" is described, in an often overused cliche, as "doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results."
Well, today we're going to operate under the assumption that Scooter Gennett IS NOT going to slug four home runs and drive in 10 runs for the Reds. We were on the Cardinals yesterday (not good) and we will be on the Cardinals again tonight (will be better). We may be insane, but we'll embrace it.
The Cardinals have lost Lance Lynn's last four starts but if you look closely you will see that he, in fact, pitched really well in all four of those games and his team lost to really strong opponents (Red Sox, Dodgers, Rockies, and Cubs). The Reds are not in the upper-tier of Major League Baseball and Lynn's mound opponent today is certainly not in the upper-tier of MLB starting pitchers.
Bronson Arroyo and his goofy leg kick made a triumphant return to baseball after being away from the game since 2014. While he hasn't been as bad as we expected, he still owns an ERA of 6.24 in 11 starts. The Reds have lost three of last his last four and, realistically, you can't expect him to go any more than five or six innings.
The Cardinals have beaten up Arroyo to the tune of 10 earned runs over eight innings in two starts this season (11.25 ERA) and have beaten the Reds in eight of the last nine head-to-head meetings with "Saturn Nuts" on the mound.
Pick: Cardinals -140
Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals (+155, 8.5)
The Astros impressive win streak ended at 11 games after falling to the Royals 9-7 last night, but Houston is eager to start another as they continue their four-game set in Kansas City Wednesday night. However, today’s game should have more of a pitcher’s duel feeling to it, as Houston sends ace Dallas Keuchel, while Kansas City counters with Jason Vargas, in a battle of stellar southpaws.
Keuchel has re-found the form that won him the 2015 Cy Young award, after having a down year in 2016. The 29-year-old lefty is a remarkable 9-0 through the first two months of the season, pitching to a 1.67 EA and an even more impressive 0.872 WHIP in 11 starts. Keuchel faced Kansas City back on April 7, pitching seven innings, allowing just one run on two hits in a 7-3 loss.
Keuchel is taking on a Royals’ lineup which, while exploding for nine runs last night, has really struggled this season. They rank 28th in runs per game, 26th in batting average and 28th in OPS.
As for Vargas, he has been one of the lone bright spots for the Royals and especially their pitching staff this season. The veteran lefty is having the best season of his career, going 7-3 with a 2.08 ERA and a 1.096 WHIP.
While the Astros boast arguably the best offense in baseball, don’t expect Vargas to be intimidated. He is coming off a complete game shutout against a good Indians team in which he allowed seven hits and he also beat the Astros in his first start of the season allowing one run on six hits in six innings of work.
Look for both southpaws to dominate this game.
Pick: Under 8.5
Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 56-44-6
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Jimmy Nelson, Milwaukee Brewers (3-3, 3.36 ERA, $-236)
With a blockbuster roster of starting pitchers on the mound today across Major League Baseball, it's a little bit surprising to be able to offer Jimmy Nelson as our "Streaking Starting Pitcher"...but he's earned it.
Over his last two starts, Nelson has been better than anyone not named Robbie Ray. He's logged 15 total innings, allowed only one earned run (0.60 ERA), and has surrendered zero walks to go along with 21 strikeouts.
Nelson and the Brewers are -125 favorites against Ty Blach and the San Francisco Giants today.
Slumping: Yovani Gallardo, Seattle Mariners (2-6, 6.24 ERA, $-568)
Gallardo has been terrible all season for the Mariners, but he's been especially bad over his last three starts. In his last three trips to the hill (all Mariners' losses) he owns a 12.75 ERA, a pathetic 2.75 WHIP, and an opponent's on base percentage of .500.
If you think he can turn things around this evening, Gallardo and the M's can be grabbed at +100 at home against Adalberto Mejia and the visiting Minnesota Twins.
Wednesday's Top Trends
* Under is 25-4-5 in Trevor Bauer's last 34 road starts. CLE/COL Total: 11
* The Philadelphia Phillies are 0-7 in Jerad Eickhoff's last 7 road starts. +125 today @ Braves.
* Over is 16-3-3 in the New York Mets' last 22 road games. NYM/TEX Total: .
* The Miami Marlins are 0-7 in the last 7 meetings in Chicago against the Cubs. +185 today @ CHC.
* The Arizona Diamondbacks are 14-3 in Zack Greinke's last 17 starts vs. a team with a losing record. -200 today vs. Padres.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
Rain should not be an issue across Major League Baseball today with a chance of an afternoon thunderstorm in Denver, where the Rockies will host the Indians, being the only precipitation alert in the forecast.
There will be a 11-13 mile per hour hitter's wind blowing out to right-center field this afternoon in Oakland for today's game between the A's and the Toronto Blue Jays. The total for that one is currently set at 8.5.
The wind shouldn't be a huge issue at Wrigley Field tonight for the game between the Cubs and Marlins (Total: 9) with a 5-7 mile per hour breeze blowing in from the left field bleachers.
Ump Of The Day
Paul Nauert: Terrible news for the New York Mets today (like they really need more bad news) as Paul Nauert will be handling home plate duties this evening in Arlington against the Rangers. Nauert is the top homer umpire in baseball this season. In fact, the home team has not lost one of his games calling balls and strikes thus far in 2017 at 9-0.
The Rangers are -155 favorites at home with Yu Darvish on the mound against the Mets' Zack Wheeler.
Wednesday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Mariners (4-0 past four games, 8-1 past nine overall)
The Mariners have caught fire lately, playing very well despite the fact they're working with a patchwork rotation due to several injuries. Seattle ran to a 12-3 win over Minnesota in Tuesday's series opener behind southpaw James Paxton, as the southpaw improved to 5-0. Seattle's hot streak will be put to the test with Yovani Gallardo on the hill, as the M's are just 3-8 over his past 11 outings, including 1-5 in his past six assignments at Safeco Field. The Twins counter with Adalberto Mejia, who has a respectable 3.95 ERA with two quality starts over his past three outings.
Coldest team Cardinals (0-5 past five games, 5-15 past 20 overall)
The Cardinals haven't appeared on the 'cold' list very often over the years, but St. Louis might have hit rock bottom on Tuesday. The Reds put a 13-1 beating on ace Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals in the second loss in as many nights at Great American Ball Park. The Cards hope Lance Lynn can do what Waino could not -- and that's break a losing skid. The Cardinals have dropped five straight overall, six in a row on the road and four in a row against teams with a losing overal mark. They're also 0-7 in their past seven road outings against a right-handed starter and 5-16 in their past 21 road games agaisnt teams with a winning home record. St. Louis has won 11 of Lynn's past 15 starts against the Reds, but they're just 1-5 in their past six at GBAP.
Hottest pitcher: Dallas Keuchel, Astros (9-0, 1.67 ERA)
The Astros find themselves in a rare spot, and that's bouncing back from a loss. The Astros came up short in a 9-7 battle at Kauffman Stadium on Tuesday, their first loss since May 24 at home against the Tigers. The loss also snapped an 11-game road win streak dating back to May 14 at N.Y. Yankees. Houston has posted six victories in their past seven against left-handed starters while 36-15 in their past 51 games on the road. The Astros have also won Keuchel's past four starts against a team with a losing overaell record, and they're a perfect 7-0 in Keuchel's past seven road outings. Conversely, the Royals are a dismal 1-5 in their past six tries at home vs. LHP.
Coldest pitcher: Bronson Arroyo, Reds (3-4, 6.24 ERA)
Arroyo takes the bump against the ice-cold Cardinals, but St. Louis could find their offense against the veteran. He has served up 19 home runs across 57 2/3 innings, most homers allowed in the majors this season. Opponents are batting .288 against Arroyo with a very mediocre 1.44 WHIP across 11 starts. The Reds have also struggled with Arroyo on the hill against the Cardinals, going 1-7 over his past eight tries against the Redbirds and 0-4 in his past four starts at GBAP. St. Louis has been terrible lately, but Arroyo has been terrible against the Cards. Something's gotta give.
Biggest UNDER run: Dodgers (6-1 past seven games overall)
The Los Angeles offense has been disappointing lately, amassing a total of just three runs in their past three games. It doesn't help that the red-hot Gio Gonzalez and Max Scherzer were pitching lights out in the first two games of the current set. However. Los Angeles has totaled six runs in six of their past seven games with one 10-run outlier on June 3 during their cold streak. The under is 4-0 in L.A.'s past four following a loss, 5-1 in their past six against a right-handed starter and 4-1 in their past five at home. Wtih Clayton Kershaw on the hill, you'd think an 'under' is a lock. However, the over is 6-2 over his past eight, although the 'under' is 11-4 in his past 15 home outings against a team with a winning mark.
Biggest OVER run: Astros (5-1-3 past nine games overall)
The Astros offense has been on fire lately. Even in a rare loss on Tuesday the Astros were able to amass seven runs. The over is 3-1-3 in their past seven against teams with a losing record, 8-2-3 in their past 13 games on the road while going 4-0-3 in their past seven against AL Central foes. The over is also 4-1-1 in Keuchel's past six against a Central club while going 4-1 in Keuchel's past five while working on four days of rest. The over is also 3-0-1 in the past four meetings between these clubs and 5-1-1 in the past seven at Kauffman Stadium.
Matchup to watch: Royals vs. Astros
The Royals finally cooled off the Astros, snapping their 11-game winning streak on Tuesday night. The Royals turn to Jason Vargas looking to hand Keuchel his first loss, while giving the Astros a second straight setback. Houston hasn't lost back-to-back games since a three-game sweep at the hands of the Indians back on May 19-21. If anyone can hand Keuchel that first loss it might be Vargas. He enters play with a 7-3 record, 2.08 ERA and 16 walks with 54 strikeouts over 69 1/3 innings. He is also coming off a complete game shutout against the Indians last time out.
Betcha didn’t know: The Diamondbacks have the league's best record at home with 22 victories in 30 games at Chase Field. They'll be searching for their eighth consecutive win in Arizona in the middle game against San Diego on Wednesday night. The Padres haven't been as fortunate, especially on the road. San Diego has won just two of their past 11 divisional games while winning just one of Luis Perdomo's past five outings. Arizona turns to Zack Greinke to keep them in the win column. They're 5-1 over his past six starts, and 6-1 in his past seven tries at home. San Diego has won just once in the past five tries against the Snakes, and they're 1-7 in their past eight trips to the desert.
Biggest public favorite: Diamondbacks (-200) vs. Padres
Biggest public underdog: Yankees (+110) vs. Red Sox
Biggest line move: Indians (+110 to -115) at Rockies
Astros, Royals clash in Kansas City
By: StatFox.com
The Royals will be hoping to inch closer to the .500 mark with a win over the Astros on Wednesday.
Before losing 9-7 in Kansas City on Tuesday, the Astros had won 11 straight games. This team is getting it done all over the field, as Houston is first in the league in runs scored and second in the league in team ERA. The Royals, meanwhile, are in the bottom half of the league in both of those categories. They desperately need to get going soon, as it is getting a bit late in the season at this point. There is still a ton of baseball to be played, but this group knows the importance of waiting too long to get hot. The Royals played their best baseball of the 2016 season towards the end of the year, but they ultimately dug themselves too big of a hole to get into the playoffs. The matchup on the mound for Wednesday will feature a pair of southpaws, as LHP Dallas Keuchel (9-0, 1.67 ERA, 69 K) is starting for Houston and LHP Jason Vargas (7-3, 2.08 ERA, 54 K) is starting for Kansas City. Both guys have been outstanding on the year, so the 8.5-run total is a bit suspicious for this game. It could, however, be because of the potency of this Astros offense. One trend that favors the Royals in this game is the fact that they are 14-4 against the money line in home games versus AL pitchers with an ERA of 2.90 or better over the past three seasons.
The Astros are the best team in baseball right now and they’ll be looking to earn a big victory in Kansas City on Wednesday. The Royals snapped the Astros’ winning streak on Tuesday, but Houston can still win this series by taking the next two games. The team certainly has the right guy on the mound, as Keuchel is the frontrunner for the AL Cy Young Award this season. Keuchel has allowed one or fewer runs in seven of his 11 starts this season. He will now try to do just that against the Royals, and he should be able to. He allowed just one earned run in seven innings on the mound against Kansas City in his first start of the year. Offensively, all of the Astros are capable of stepping up and helping the team win. DH Carlos Beltran (.249 BA, 8 HR, 24 RBI) and 2B Jose Altuve (.326 BA, 8 HR, 29 RBI) are two that stand out in this one though. The two of them are a combined 11-for-24 with two homers and seven RBI against Vargas in their careers. They’ll hope to stay hot against the lefty in this one.
If the Royals are going to win their second straight against the Astros then Vargas is going to need to come out dealing in this one. Vargas has been remarkable for Kansas City thus far, allowing no earned runs in five of his 11 starts this season. He has not, however, faced an offense quite like Houston’s, and he must be ready to avoid major mistakes here. If he hangs anything too high then the Astros are going to make him pay for it. Offensively, it’ll be up to guys like OF Lorenzo Cain (.261 BA, 3 HR, 14 RBI) and 1B Eric Hosmer (.315 BA, 5 HR, 21 RBI) to get things done against Keuchel. They are a combined 10-for-30 against the ace, so there is definitely a track record of success. The team could also get a boost from 3B Cheslor Cuthbert (.186 BA, 1 HR, 7 RBI), who is 5-for-9 with two doubles, two homers, and six RBI against Keuchel in his career. He does not start everyday, but it’s hard to imagine the Royals leaving that type of production on the bench.