MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, May 24th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Rockies @ Phillies
Chatwood is 1-4, 6.07 in his last five starts; his last three starts stayed under.
Hellickson is 1-1, 6.60 in his last three road starts (under 6-2-1).
Rockies won seven of last nine games; over is 8-3 in their last 11 road games. Phillies lost eight of last nine games; over is 10-4 in their last 14 games.
Pirates @ Braves
Williams is 1-1, 3.38 in his last two starts (over 1-1-1).
Teheran is 1-3, 8.55 in his last four starts; over is 4-1-1 in his last six.
Pirates lost six of last eight road games; over is 5-3–1 in their last nine games. Atlanta is 9-3 in its last 12 games; over is 8-3-1 in their last 12 home games.
Giants @ Cubs
Moore is 1-0, 2.71 in his last three starts; over is 4-0-1 in his road starts.
Hendricks is 2-1, 2.12 in his last five starts, four of which stayed under.
Giants won 10 of last 13 games; four of their last six games went over. Cubs won five of last seven games; over is 15-2 in last 17 games at Wrigley Field.
Padres @ Mets
Cosart is 0-1, 2.84 in three starts (12.2 IP) this year (under 2-1).
Gsellman is 2-2, 10.00 in his last four starts (over 7-0).
San Diego lost six of its last seven games; over is 9-5-1 in their last 15 road games. Mets lost eight of last eleven games; over is 8-2-1 in their last eleven games.
Cardinals @ Dodgers
Leake is 4-2, 2.01 in eight starts this year; over is 3-1-1 in his last five starts.
Hill is 1-1, 2.77 in three starts (13 IP) this season (under 3-0).
St Louis lost five of last six games; over is 9-2-1 in their last 12 road games. Los Angeles won seven of last eight home games; five of last six Dodger games went over the total.
American League
Kansas City @ New York
Hammel is 1-4, 7.56 in his last five starts; over is 3-1 in his last four.
Severino 0-1, 4.50 in his last four starts, all of which went over the total.
Royals lost five of last eight games; under is 8-4 in their last 12 games. New York lost four of last six games; over is 9-4 in their last 13 home games.
Twins @ Orioles
Berrios is 2-0, 0.61 in two starts this month (under 2-0).
Tillman is 1-0, 3.52 in three starts this season (under 3-0).
Twins are 11-2 in last 13 road games; over is 8-2 in their last ten road tilts. Baltimore won eight of last 11 home games; over is 5-3-1 in their last nine games.
Angels @ Rays
Nolasco is 0-1, 4.24 in his last four starts; under is 5-1 in his last six starts.
Ramirez is 1-0, 2.61 in two starts this season (over 2-0).
Angels won seven of last nine games; under is 7-4 in their last 11 games. Tampa Bay lost its last three games; over is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games.
Rangers @ Red Sox
Perez is 1-0, 2.70 in his last two starts (under 6-3).
Sale is 3-0, 3.54 in his last four starts- under is 7-1 in his last eight outings.
Texas won 11 of its last 13 games; over is 6-3 in their last nine games. Boston lost three of last five games; over is 8-1 in last nine Red Sox games.
Tigers @ Astros
Norris is 0-1, 6.75 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four.
Morton is 4-1, 4.85 in his last five starts; over is 5-1 in his last six.
Tigers lost four of last five games; under is 6-1 in their last seven road games. Houston lost three of their last five games; under is 5-1 in their last six games.
Interleague
Mariners @ Nationals
Gaviglio blanked the White Sox for five innings in his first MLB start.
Roark is 0-2, 7.06 in his last four starts (over 7-1-1).
Mariners lost nine of last 12 games; over is 6-2 in their last eight games. Washington lost four of last six games; over is 9-3 in Nationals’ last 12 home games.
Reds @ Indians
Bonilla is 0-2, 6.08 in two starts this year (over 1-1).
Bauer is 2-2, 7.17 in his last four starts, three of which stayed under.
Indians won seven of last ten road games; over is 4-0 in their last four home games. Reds lost nine of last 11 games; eight of last nine Cincy games went over the total.
Blue Jays @ Brewers
Stroman is 2-0, 1.02 in his last three starts; over is 4-1 in his last five outings.
Garza is 1-0, 1.87 in his last three starts; three of his last four starts stayed under.
Toronto lost five of last eight games; under is 3-1 in their last four games. Milwaukee won 10 of last 14 games; over is 15-4 in last 19 games at Miller Park.
White Sox @ Diamondbacks
Quintana is 1-1, 2.57 in his last four starts; under is 7-1 in his last eight starts.
Delgado is making his first ’17 start; he’s started 48 MLB games, 36 of them in 2012-13- this is his first start in two years. He is 1-0, 4.05 in 15 relief stints (26.2 IP) this year.
White Sox won three of last four games; five of their last seven games went over the total. Arizona won six of its last seven games; under is 5-3-1 in their last nine home games.
Marlins @ A’s
Volquez is 0-5, 6.12 in his last five starts (under 5-2-1).
Gray is 1-1, 5.16 in four starts this year (over 4-0).
Miami is 3-15 in its last 18 games; over is 6-1 in their last seven road games. Oakland won three of last four games; over is 8-3 in their last 11 home games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
SF-Chi: Moore 3-6; Hendricks 4-4
Col-Phil: Chatwood 3-6; Hellickson 8-1
Pitt-Atl: Williams 1-2; Teheran 3-6
SD-NY: Cosart 1-2; Gsellman 4-3
StL-LA: Leake 4-4; Hill 1-2
American League
Min-Balt: Berrios 2-0; Tillman 2-1
KC-NY: Hammel 1-7; Severino 4-4
LA-TB: Nolasco 3-6; Ramirez 2-0
Tex-Bos: Perez 3-6; Sale 6-3
Det-Hst: Norris 3-5; Morton 6-3
Interleague
Sea-Wsh: Gaviglio 1-0; Roark 5-4
Cin-Clev: Bonilla 2-2; Bauer 4-4
Tor-Mil: Stroman 5-4; Garza 4-1
CWS-Az: Quintana 4-5; Delgado 0-0
Mia-A’s: Volquez 1-7; Gray 2-2
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
SF-Chi: Moore 3-9; Hendricks 4-8
Col-Phil: Chatwood 1-9; Hellickson 4-9 (4 of last 4)
Pitt-Atl: Williams 1-3; Teheran 4-9
SD-NY: Cosart 0-3; Gsellman 5-7
StL-LA: Leake 1-8; Hill 0-3
American League
Min-Balt: Berrios 0-2; Tillman 0-3
KC-NY: Hammel 1-8; Severino 2-8
LA-TB: Nolasco 4-9; Ramirez 2-2
Tex-Bos: Perez 4-9; Sale 0-9
Det-Hst: Norris 1-8; Morton 1-9
Interleague
Sea-Wsh: Gaviglio 0-1; Roark 4-9
Cin-Clev: Bonilla 2-2; Bauer 2-8
Tor-Mil: Stroman 1-9; Garza 1-5
CWS-Az: Quintana 2-9; Delgado 0-0
Mia-A’s: Volquez 4-8; Gray 1-4
Umpires
National League
SF-Chi: Last four Nelson games went over the total.
Col-Phil: Over is 4-1-1 in last six Woodring games.
Pitt-Atl: Under is 4-2 in last six Carapazza games.
SD-NY: Over is 5-2 in last seven Everitt games
StL-LA: Three of last four Drake games stayed under.
American League
Min-Balt: Last four LBarrett games stayed under.
KC-NY: Underdogs are 4-4 (+$125) in Layne games this year.
LA-TB: Under is 4-2-1 in last seven Wendelstedt games.
Tex-Bos: Six of last seven Marquez games went over.
Det-Hst: Three of last four Hoye games went over total.
Interleague
Sea-Wsh: Under is 4-1-1 in Tichenor games this year.
Clev-Cin: Underdogs won four of last six Kellogg games.
Tor-Mil: Five of last six Winters games went over.
CWS-Az: Over is 6-2 in Hernandez games this season.
Mia-A’s: Over is 4-2 in Iassogna games this season.
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 23-10 AL, favorites +$19
AL @ NL– 23-21 AL, favorites +$247
Total: 46-31 AL, favorites +$266
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 16-17-1
AL @ NL: Over 28-17
Total: Over 44-34-1
Armadillosports.com
Wednesday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Rockies (7-2 past nine games, 12-5 past 17 overall)
The Rockies remained red hot, rolling the Phillies by an 8-2 score in Tuesday's game. They have outscored the Phils 16-3 through the first two games. Colorado has also rolled up six or more runs in five stragiht and eight of the past nine games. A lot of casual baseball fans might roll their eyes, figuring the offensive totals are propped up by the rarefied air of Coors Field, but only one of the past nine outings has come at home. The Rockies are 8-2 in their past 10 road games agaisnt right-handed pitching, and they're an impressive 12-2 in their past 14 outings against teams with a winning percentage of .400 or worse. Their winning ways will be put to the test with Tyler Chatwood on the bump, as the team is just 1-4 over his past five starts.
Coldest team Phillies (1-8 past nine games, 4-19 past 23 overall)
The Phillies have been horrendous after a surprisingly good April. Since flipping the calendar to May the Fightin' Phils have managed to rattle off just three wins in 19 outings. A major reason for the losing ways has been a lack of hitting, averaging just 1.5 runs per game over the past four outings. Philadelphia's pitching has also let them down, yielding 6.11 runs per game over the past 19. There is very little reason not to fade the Phillies right now, as they're just bottoming out and not even coming close. They have dropped their past 10 losses by an average of 3.9 runs per game, so run line bettors might want to pay attention, too.
Hottest pitcher: Mike Leake, Cardinals (4-2, 2.03 ERA)
The former standout at Arizona State has had plenty of ups and downs in his career. A light has gone off this season, however, as he checks in fourth in the majors with a 2.03 ERA. The key to his success this season has been his limited walks (10) through 53 1/3 innings. Opponents are hitting just .217 against Leake while he brings in an impressive 0.99 WHIP to Wednesday's performance. The Cardinals have struggled overall, winning just once in the past six outings. However, their extra-innings loss on Tuesday was their first setback in the past 10 outings on the road.
Coldest pitcher: Matt Moore, Giants (2-4, 5.37 ERA)
Moore has recorded two much-needed quality starts over his past two outings, but his overall body of work still needs plenty of, well, work. Despite the two quality starts he has walked three batters in each of the outings, and he has issued a whopping 21 free passes in just 52 innings thusfar. His 1.52 WHIP and 5.37 ERA are well above his career numbers. He will work against the struggling defending champion Cubs at Wrigley Field on Wednesday. It has been a nightmare pitching away from home, as Moore is 0-3 with an 8.63 ERA across five starts while the opposition is hitting .343 against him.
Biggest UNDER run: Tigers (6-3 past nine games)
The 'under' hit in two of the three games at home against the Rangers as the Tigers allowed just 13 total runs in the series. The 'under' is 5-1 in Detroit's past six against American League West Division foes while going 4-1 in the past five road games for the Tigers. However, the 'over' is 4-1 in Michael Fulmer's past five road outings, 4-1 in his past five starts overall and 5-2 in his past seven against teams with a winning overall record. The good news is the 'under' is 6-2 in his past eight against AL West teams and 4-1 in his past five against teams with a winning overall mark.
Biggest OVER run: Rockies (5-0 past five games, 5-0 past five road games)
The Rockies helped 'over' bettors cash another winning ticket in Tuesday's game, smashing the Phillies by an 8-2 score. The over is 5-0 in the past five road games, 5-0 in Colorado's past five against right-handed starters and an impressive 16-5 in their past 21 meetings with National League East foes. The over will be put to the test with Chatwood on the hill, as the 'under' is 4-1 over his past five road outings and 7-3 in his past 10 starts overall. With the struggles of the Phillies, the 'over' is a good bet, however. The over is 5-1-1 in Philadelphia's past seven overall and 8-2-1 across their past 11 vs. RHP.
Matchup to watch: Dodgers vs. Cardinals
Will the Cardinals and Dodgers be too tired to push across runs on Wednesday? Lance Lynn and Clayton Kershaw were locked in a pitcher's duel on Tuesday, as extra innings were needed to decide a winner. It wasn't until Logan Forsythe's RBI double in the bottom of the 13th inning before the home crowd went away with a smile on their face. Now, about 19 hours later, they'll meet again. The Dodgers have to contend with the red-hot Leake (see above), while the Cardinals will square off against left-hander Rich Hill. The Cardinals rank 21st in the majors with a .230 average against left-handed hitting and they rank dead-last in the National League (29th overall) with only five homers vs. southpaws.
Betcha didn’t know: The Red Sox will try and contend with Rangers LHP Martin Perez in Wednesday's game in Fenway Park. Boston ranks 30th in the majors with just four homers against left-handed pitching, although they rank seventh in the majors with a .265 average vs. LHP. Boston is 10-1 over their past 11 at home against left-handed starters amd they're 4-1 over the past five home starts by Chris Sale. The Red Sox will look to cool off the red-hot Rangers, a team which is 11-2 over the past 13 games and 5-2 in their past seven against left-handed starting pitching.
Biggest public favorite: Red Sox (-270) vs. Rangers
Biggest public underdog: Cardinals (+170) at Dodgers
Biggest line move: Twins (-140 to -115) at Orioles
Red-hot Dodgers host Cardinals
By: StatFox,com
The Dodgers will be going for their third straight win when they host the Cardinals on Wednesday.
St. Louis is really struggling heading into Wednesday’s game, as the team has now lost five of its past six contests. The Cardinals were hoping to snap out of it with a victory on Tuesday night, but they were unable to beat this Dodgers team in extra innings. Los Angeles won that game 2-1, and the Dodgers have now won two straight and five of their past six. The battle on the mound in this game should be excellent, as RHP Mike Leake (4-2, 2.03 ERA, 37 K) is going for the Cardinals and LHP Rich Hill (1-1, 2.77 ERA, 13 K) will be starting for the Dodgers. Both guys have been excellent this season, but Hill’s success does come in a small sample size. He has only started three games because of blister issues that have lingered from last season. It’s important that he finds a way to get out there more moving forward. As for trends that stand out when looking at this game, St. Louis is 19-6 against the money line over the past two seasons in road games after allowing two runs or less. Los Angeles, however, is a ridiculous 19-3 against the money line over the past two seasons in home games after allowing one or less runs.
The Cardinals are struggling right now and they badly need a victory over the Dodgers on Wednesday. Fortunately for St. Louis, Mike Leake is going to be on the mound. Leake has been the team’s most consistent starter this season, as he has allowed three or fewer earned runs in all eight of his starts. If he can give the Cardinals seven innings of two-run ball or so then the team would be ecstatic. That is exactly what he did in a trip to the mound against Boston in his most recent start, so it’s definitely not out of the question. Offensively, not a single player on the Cardinals roster has gotten a hit off of Rich Hill in their careers. They do, however, have only two players that have faced the lefty, so it’s not like he has dominated them either. One guy to keep an eye on in this lineup is C Yadier Molina (.259 BA, 3 HR, 15 RBI). The 34-year-old has hit lefties hard this season, going 8-for-26 with two doubles, a homer, and four RBI against them on the year. It’d be big if he can come through for them on Wednesday.
Rich Hill is starting for the Dodgers on Wednesday, and the lefty needs to find a way to work a bit deeper into this game than he has others this season. Hill has not pitched more than five innings in a single start this year, and that can’t keep up moving forward. Fortunately for Hill, the blisters that plagued him earlier in the year did not come back after his start against the Giants on May 16. If that continues to be the case then Hill should be able to really help this Dodgers team as they gear up for the summer. Offensively, the Dodgers are going to need a big game from 1B Adrian Gonzalez (.252 BA, 0 HR, 15 RBI) in this one. Gonzalez has not yet homered this season, and that is really ridiculous for a guy that is as great at the plate as him. Look for that to change very soon, and don’t be surprised if it happens on Wednesday.
MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com
Double-Play Picks
Miami Marlins at Oakland Athletics (-133, 9)
The Marlins won 11-9 a slug-fest over the A’s in the opener of their mini two-game series in Oakland, and will try to win back-to-back road games for the first time in over a month.
The reason the Marlins can’t string together consecutive wins away from home? Their pitching staff.
Miami ranks 26th in team ERA overall at 4.82 and 26th in WHIP at 1.43. The bullpen ranks 21st in ERA at 4.33 and have a league worst four, count ‘em, four saves this season, while blowing eight save opportunities. However, maybe the Marlins relievers should look no further than their own starters, when it comes to reasons why they have struggled.
The Marlins’ starters ERA balloons to 5.19, which is second-to-last in the majors and they rank dead last when it comes to quality starts with just 13 in 44 games this season. That won’t create many good bullpen opportunities.
When it comes to pitching away from Marlins Park, Miami’s team ERA is 4.96.
Today the embattled starter they send to the hill is Edinson Volquez. The 33-year-old right-hander is 0-6 with a 4.87 ERA and a 1.697 WHIP in eight starts this season and his road splits aren’t pretty. Away from home, Volquez is 0-4 with a 5.26 ERA and a 1.675 WHIP, resulting in Miami going 0-5 in his last five road starts.
Volquez faces off against Oakland’s Sonny Gray. The A’s ace is starting to find his groove after missing the first month of the season with a strained lat, pitching two quality starts in his last two outings.
The A’s have also been a strong team at home this season going 14-10 at Oakland Coliseum and their bats have been waking up, to the tune of 5.4 runs per game over their last 10 games.
Pick: Oakland -133
Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees (-200, 8.5)
The New York Yankees will send right-hander Luis Severino to the Yankee Stadium mound for an matchup against Jason Hammel and the Kansas City Royals on Wednesday night.
Today is the day where the Yankees' offense breaks out in this series against the Royals. The powerful Bombers were held to only two runs Tuesday in a 6-2 loss and four runs Monday in a 4-2 victory. On Wednesday evening the Yanks get a break from back-to-back zippy lefties (Danny Duffy and Jason Vargas) by facing a very hittable Hammel. The 2016 World Series Champion is really struggling since joining the Royals with a 1-5 record and a 6.20 ERA in eight starts, including 0-2 and a 7.20 ERA in three starts on the road.
This is great news for a Yankees lineup that currently leads the American League in Runs, Home Runs, Slugging Percentage, and OPS. Their OPS at Yankee Stadium this season is .865 - the next highest A.L. Home OPS is the Detroit Tigers at .792!
Severino's last four starts have gone Over the closing total and he has a tendency to put plenty of runners on the base paths via the walk. If the Royals are patient they should be able to push a few runs across the plate, which will take the pressure off the Yankees' lineup to hit this total on their own.
Bonus: Over is 9-1-1 in the Yankees' last 11 games with Jerry Lane calling balls and strikes.
Pick: Over 8.5
Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season to Date: 42-33-3
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Jeremy Hellickson, Philadelphia Phillies (5-1, 3.44 ERA, $889)
Jeremy Hellickson is dominating the Covers Starter Money table thus far in 2017. The young Phillies righty owns a Team Win/Loss record of 8-1 and has earned bettors $889 on the season (based on a $100 wager per start). The next closest starter on our list is Dallas Keuchel with $623.
Hellickson certainly isn't going to dazzle you with big strikeout numbers, but he's been frustrating hitters all season with his crafty arsenal of off-speed pitches and pinpoint control. He puts the Phillies in a position to win every time he takes the mound.
Hellickson and the Phillies can be wagered at +100 at home this evening against the visiting Colorado Rockies.
Slumping: Jason Hammel, Kansas City Royals (1-5, 6.20, $-601)
If Hellickson is being praised for his lofty Starter Money statistics, Jason Hammel will deservedly get trashed for his standing on the same stat table. Hammel ranks 208th in Major League Baseball in Starter Money at $-601. The Royals have only won one of his starts this season (Team Win/Loss: 1-7) and he owns a lofty 6.20 ERA (7.20 on the road).
The Royals are getting Hammel at a good value this season, but he is scheduled to make $9 million in 2018. He had better turn this thing around, otherwise he might find himself out of work in the offseason.
The Royals are big dogs today at Yankee Stadium at +175.
Wednesday's Top Trends
The Washington Nationals are 12-1 in the last 13 meetings with the Seattle Mariners. Nats -150 today.
The Boston Red Sox are 10-1 in their last 11 home games vs. a left-handed starter. -260 today vs. Perez and the Rangers.
Over is 21-2-4 in the New York Mets' last 27 games vs. a right-handed starter. Total: 9 vs. Cosart and the Padres.
The San Francisco Giants are 2-10 in the last 12 meetings in Chicago against the Cubs. +175 today @ CHC.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
Wet weather will have an impact on a couple of games this evening across Major League Baseball. There is a 75 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms in Cleveland where the Minnesota Twins are scheduled to take on the Indians and a possibility of thunderstorm moving into the area of Nationals Park late in Wednesday's game between the Nats and Mariners.
The wind will be blowing in from left at Wrigley Field in Chicago this evening at 15-18 miles per hour. The total for this evening's game between the Cubs and Giants has been set at 7.
Ump Of The Day
Lance Barrett: There is definitely no home team bias when Lance Barrett is the one calling balls and strikes. Home teams are just 2-6 in games Barrett has officiated this season, costing bettors $-466, that’s the fourth most in the majors.
The Twins hope that trends continues, as Barret will be behind home plate for this afternoon’s game when they visit the Orioles. Additionally, the road team is 5-1 in Barrett’s last six games behind home plate versus Baltimore and the Twins are 5-1 in their last six games with Barrett behind the plate. Minnesota is currently a +107 road dog.