MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, May 31st, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Phillies @ Marlins
Nola is 1-2, 5.00 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four.
Straily is 2-1, 2.74 in his last four starts (over 3-0-1).
Phillies lost nine of last 11 games; under is 4-1-1 in their last six games. Miami won four of last five games; over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games.
Dodgers @ Cardinals
Ryu is 2-5, 6.00 in his last seven starts (under 4-2-1).
Martinez is 3-1, 2.48 in his last five starts (over 4-4-2).
Dodgers won seven of last eight games; under is 5-3 in their last eight games. St Louis lost nine of last 12 games; over is 5-2 in their last seven home games.
Nationals @ Giants
Scherzer is 2-1, 2.60 in his last five starts (over 5-5).
Cain is 0-2, 6.39 in his last two starts; over is 5-1 in his last six.
Nationals won seven of last nine games; six of last seven Washington games stayed under. San Francisco won seven of last 11 home games; under is 3-2-1 in their last six games.
Diamondbacks @ Pirates
Godley is 1-1, 1.99 in five starts this year (under 3-2).
Kuhl is 0-3, 7.36 in his last four starts; over is 4-2 in his home starts.
Arizona is 8-10 in last 18 road games; under is 8-2 in their last ten games. Pittsburgh lost four of last six games; six of last eight Pirate games went over the total.
Brewers @ Mets
Guerra is 0-0, 3.12 in two starts this season (over 1-1).
deGrom is 4-0, 3.66 in his last six starts; under is 4-0 in his home starts.
Brewers lost seven of last nine games; under is 6-4-1 in their last 11 road games. Mets are 8-5 in last 13 home games; over is 7-2-1 in their last ten games.
Cubs @ Padres
Arrieta is 1-3, 7.48 in his last four starts; over is 7-2 in his last nine.
Perdomo is 0-2, 7.29 in his last four starts; under is 4-2 in his last six.
Cubs lost their last seven road games; under is 7-2-1 in their last ten road tilts. San Diego won its last three games; under is 5-0-1 in last six Padre games.
American League
A’s @ Indians
Manaea is 2-0, 2.25 in his last two starts; three of his last four starts went over.
Clevinger is 2-1, 2.86 in his last four starts (under 3-1).
A’s lost six of last eight games; four of their last six games stayed under. Cleveland lost five of last eight home games; over is 7-3 in their last ten home games.
Red Sox @ White Sox
Pomeranz is 1-2, 6.35 in his last four starts, three of which went over.
Pelfrey is 2-0, 2.45 in his last two starts; over is 3-1 in his last four.
Boston won seven of last nine games; under is 4-1-1 in last six Red Sox games. Chicago won six of last eight home games; over is 9-3-2 in their last 14 home games.
New York @ Baltimore
Tanaka is 0-3, 7.94 in his last three starts; four of his last five went over.
Gausman is 0-1, 5.06 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his last four.
New York is 6-3 in its last nine games; under is 7-2 in last nine Bronx games. Baltimore lost eight of its last nine games; five of last seven Oriole games stayed under.
Rays @ Rangers
Archer is 2-2, 3.57 in his last six starts; over is 6-3 in his last nine.
Bibens-Dirkx is a 32-year old rookie making his first MLB start. He allowed five runs in 11.1 IP in four relief stints this year- he was 0-2, 3.04 in six AAA games (3 starts) this year.
Tampa Bay won four of last six games; over is 8-2 in their last ten road games. Texas lost five of last seven games; last four Rangers’ home games went over.
Tigers @ Royals
Boyd is 0-4, 7.36 in his last five starts (under 5-4-1).
Kennedy is 0-2, 11.12 in his last three starts; his last four starts went over.
Detroit lost eight of last 11 games; under is 8-4-1 in their last 13 road games. Kansas City is 6-8 in its last 14 games; under is 11-4 in their last 15 home games.
Astros @ Twins
Paulino is making his first ’17 start; he was 0-1, 5.14 in three MLB games LY (1 start). He is 0-1, 4.50 in three AAA starts this year.
Santiago is 0-2, 8.31 in his last three starts, plus he lost in relief Sunday; over is 5-2 in his last seven starts.
Astros won eight of last nine games; under is 7-4-2 in their last 13 games. Minnesota lost four of last five games; over is 4-2-1 in their last seven home games.
Interleague
Rockies @ Mariners
Senzatela is 4-0, 3.90 in his last five starts; over is 6-1 in his last seven.
Paxton comes off DL here; he is 3-0, 1.67 in six starts this season (under 3-2-1).
Seattle won its last three games; under is 5-1-1 in last seven Mariner games. Colorado lost three of last four games; over is 5-1-1 in their last seven road games.
Reds @ Blue Jays
Adleman is 1-1, 6.59 in his last three starts (over 4-3).
Bolsinger is 0-2, 6.64 in four starts this year (over 3-1).
Reds lost three of last four games; their last three games went over. Toronto won seven of last eight games; over is 5-2 in their last seven home games.
Braves @ Angels
Garcia is 1-2, 3.81 in his last four starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six.
Chavez is 2-2, 6.14 in his last four starts; over is 4-2 in his last six.
Atlanta lost five of last six games; over is 6-1-1 in their last eight games. Angels lost four of last six games; their last four home games all went over.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Phil-Mia: Nola 2-3; Straily 5-5
LA-StL: Ryu 2-5; Martinez 5-5
Wsh-SF: Scherzer 6-4; Cain 5-5
Az-Pitt: Godley 3-2; Kuhl 3-7
Mil-NY: Guerra 0-2; deGrom 6-4
Chi-SD: Arrieta 5-5; Perdomo 2-6
American League
A’s-Clev: Manaea 3-5; Clevinger 2-2
Bos-Chi: Pomeranz 5-4; Pelfrey 3-4
NY-Balt: Tanaka 5-5; Gausman 5-6
TB-Tex: Archer 6-5; Dirkx 0-0
Det-KC: Boyd 3-7; Kennedy 2-6
Hst-Minn: Paulino 0-0; Santiago 5-5
Interleague
Col-Sea: Senzatela 8-2; Paxton 3-3
Cin-Tor: Adleman 4-3; Bolsinger 1-3
Atl-LAA: Garcia 5-4; Chavez 4-6
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Phil-Mia: Nola 1-5; Straily 1-10
LA-StL: Ryu 5-7; Martinez 2-10
Wsh-SF: Scherzer 2-10; Cain 4-10
Az-Pitt: Godley 0-5; Kuhl 4-10
Mil-NY: Guerra 0-2; deGrom 3-10
Chi-SD: Arrieta 3-10; Perdomo 5-8
American League
A’s-Clev: Manaea 1-8; Clevinger 0-4
Bos-Chi: Pomeranz 4-9; Pelfrey 2-7
NY-Balt: Tanaka 5-10; Gausman 3-11
TB-Tex: Archer 2-11; Dirkx 0-0
Det-KC: Boyd 2-10; Kennedy 2-8
Hst-Minn: Paulino 0-0; Santiago 1-10
Interleague
Col-Sea: Senzatela 4-10; Paxton 0-6
Cin-Tor: Adleman 3-7; Bolsinger 2-4
Atl-LAA: Garcia 2-9; Chavez 1-10
Umpires
National League
Phil-Mia: Over is 3-1-1 in last five Blaser games.
LA-StL: Over is 7-3 in Muchlinski games this year.
Wsh-SF: Four of last six HGibson games stayed under.
Az-Pitt: Last five Cederstrom games went over total.
Mil-NY: Five of last six Culbreth games went over.
Chi-SD: Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Davis games.
American League
A’s-Clev: Home side won last five Ripperger games.
Bos-Chi: Last four Gibson games stayed under total.
NY-Balt: Under is 6-3 in last nine Danley games.
TB-Tex: Under is 5-2 in last seven Conroy games.
Det-KC: Under is 5-2 in last seven Little games.
Hst-Minn: Over is 6-1-2 in Wolf games this season.
Interleague
Sea-Colo: Over is 7-2 in Barry games this season.
Cin-Tor: Under is 4-2 in last six Torres games.
Atl-LAA: This is Libka’s first big league game behind the plate.
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 27-12 AL, favorites +$108
AL @ NL– 28-25 AL, favorites +$202
Total: 55-37 AL, favorites +$310
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 22-20-1
AL @ NL: Over 31-19-1
Total: Over 53-39-2
Armadillosports.com
Wednesday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Blue Jays (7-1 past eight games, 9-3 past 12 at home)
The Blue Jays got off to a horrendous start, but they have banded together and are doing the things prognosticators in the preseason thought they would accomplish. There is plenty of time remaining in the season and they're just 6 1/2 games back of the first-place New York Yankees in the American League East. Perhaps they should petition Commissioner Rob Manfred to join the National League, as they're 5-0 in their past five interleague games, outscoring the opposition 44-13 during the impressive span. They'll wrap up their interleague series against the Reds on Wednesday afternoon in the Great White North, working against Tim Adleman, who has a 4.95 ERA through 40 innings.
Coldest team Phillies (2-9 past 11 games, 6-24 past 30 overall)
The Fightin' Phils haven't been putting up much of a fight lately, winning just three times in the past 16 games dating bcak to May 14. Philadelphia has been outscored 11-3 over the first two games of the series in Miami, and they have failed to scored more than four runs in 11 consecutive outings. The Phillies have won just one of their past seven against teams with a losing record, they're 1-11 in their past 12 road games against teams with a losing home record and they're 3-10 in Aaron Nola's past 13 starts. Philadelphia has shown no signs of breaking out of their funk and a trip to Miami hasn't been a cure for their ills. They're 2-5 in their past seven at Marlins Park.
Hottest pitcher: Antonio Senzatela, Rockies (7-1, 3.19 ERA)
Senzatela has won seven of his eight decisions while holding the opposition to a .238 batting average with a 1.15 WHIP. While he has been surprisingly good at home, going 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA despite the rarefied air in Denver, he has very similar and consistent numbers on the road. He is 2-0 with a 3.52 ERA with a .241 opponent batting average in four starts away from home. The Rockies are 4-1 in Senzatela's past five against a team with a losing overall record while going 8-2 in his past 10 starts overall.
Coldest pitcher: Kevin Gausman, Orioles (2-4, 6.17 ERA)
Gausman has really struggled with consistency this season, and the O's have struggled with him on the hill. The Orioles are 2-6 over his past eight outings and 1-5 in his past six agaisnt teams with a winning overall record. The O's are also 2-12 in their past 14 games against right-handed starters and 1-8 in their past nine overall. The good news for Gausman is that he is facing the Yankees, as the O's are 6-0 in his past six home starts against the Bronx Bombers and 4-1 in his past five outings against the Pinstripers overall. Conversely, the Yankees are 8-22 in their past 30 trips to Charm City while going 1-5 in Masahiro Tanaka's past six tries against the Birds.
Biggest UNDER run: Nationals (7-2-1 past 10 games overall)
The 'under' has been the play for the Nationals lately, going 5-1-1 in their past seven outings. Their pitching has been on point lately, and the offense has struggled a bit. Surprisingly, the 'over' is 5-2 in Max Scherzer's past seven road starts and 4-0 in his past four when making an appearance on four days of rest. He ranks 11th in the league in ERA, so the 'over' results have been due to a tremendous amount of run support when he makes the start. The 'under has also cashed in six of the past seven meetings with the Giants in San Francisco while going 15-5-1 in the past 21 battles between these budding rivals.
Biggest OVER run: Braves (3-0-1 past four games, 6-1-1 past eight overall)
The 'over' has hit in three of the past four for the Bravos because they're allowing 6.3 runs per game. The Atlanta bats seem to come alive and the Braves pitching seems to go in the tank when playing interleague games. The 'over' is 6-0 in Atlanta's past six interleague battles, 4-0 in their past four interleague road games and 4-1 in their past five against American League West foes. The over has also cashed in their past six interleague games against right-handed starters while posting an impressive 33-16-2 in their past 51 on the road overall.
Matchup to watch: Royals vs. Tigers
The Royals have been stuck in the American League Central Division basement, but they have made strides lately and are looking to swap spots with the Tigers. After winning a pitcher's duel on Tuesday, 1-0, the Royals are just 1 1/2 games behind manager Brad Ausmus' group for fourth in the Central. Kansas City will face southpaw Matthew Boyd, who hasn't won over his pst seven starts and he has failed to last more than six innings in each of his past three showings. He is also 1-3 with a 9.00 ERA in six career appearances against Detroit. The Royals have struggled with Ian Kennedy on the hill, however, going 1-4 in his past five starts and 7-20 over his past 27 against Central foes.
Betcha didn’t know: The 'over' has cashed in seven of the past meetings between the Yankees and Orioles, including four of the past five in Baltimore. The over is also 7-1 in Masahiro Tanaka's past eight starts on the road and 6-1 in his past seven inside the division. In addition, the over is 5-1 in Tanaka's past six attempts against a team with a winning overall mark. The over is also 3-0-1 in Kevin Gausman's past four outings at home while going 8-3 in Baltimore's past 11 outings against teams with a winning percentage over .600.
Biggest public favorite: Mets (-180) vs. Brewers
Biggest public underdog: Rockies (+175) at Mariners
Biggest line move: Mariners (-135 to -175) vs. Rockies
Yankees face Orioles
By: StatFox.com
The Orioles will be looking to prevent a ninth loss in 10 games when they host the Yankees on Wednesday.
New York has been extremely impressive this season, and the team comes into this game having won six of its past nine games. The Yankees got a brilliant performance from Luis Severino on Tuesday night, which helped them escape with an 8-3 victory at Camden Yards. The Orioles now find themselves desperate to string together a winning streak, as they fell from the top of the AL East standings to third over the past few weeks. They also happen to be only 0.5 games up on the Rays, and the Jays are only 2.0 games behind them all of a sudden. The starters in this big Wednesday night matchup will be RHP Masahiro Tanaka (5-4, 5.86 ERA, 52 K) for New York and RHP Kevin Gausman (2-4, 6.17 ERA, 38 K) for Baltimore. One trend that stands out when looking at this game is the fact that the Yankees are 16-5 against the money line over the past two seasons when coming off of a win and Tanaka is on the mound. The Orioles are, however, an impressive 24-8 against the money line after a game where the bullpen threw six or more innings over the past three seasons.
This has been a very rough season for Masahiro Tanaka, but the righty is coming off of his best start of the year on May 26. The Yankees hosted the Athletics in that game, and Tanaka threw 7.1 innings of one-run ball. He struck out a ridiculous 13 batters in that game, and he also walked none. He seems to have found his groove, but it’s important that he puts it together in this one as well. Tanaka does not want to lose any momentum right now. Offensively, three Yankees to look out for in this one are DH Matt Holliday (.261 BA, 11 HR, 32 RBI), OF Brett Gardner (.276 BA, 11 HR, 24 RBI), and OF Aaron Judge (.323 BA, 17 HR, 37 RBI). Holliday and Gardner both need to be mentioned because they combined to hit four homers in Tuesday night’s game. Each of them hit two bombs, and they should be feeling great heading into this one. They also happen to be a combined 14-for-43 against Gausman, but Gardner has done most of that work. He is 11-for-34 against the righty. Judge also has to be mentioned, as he is one of the best hitters in baseball right now and also has two career homers off of Gausman.
Like Tanaka, Kevin Gausman is also having a season to forget thus far. But also like Tanaka, Gausman has had his best starts of the year in his most recent outings. Over his past two starts, Gausman has allowed just four earned runs in 12.2 innings of work. He walked just one batter over those two games, and it’d be big if he can do the same on Wednesday. The Orioles will only be asking him for something like a quality start, so expectations are definitely not through the roof or anything. Offensively, the Orioles need something out of both 3B Manny Machado (.210 BA, 10 HR, 25 RBI) and OF Mark Trumbo (.262 BA, 7 HR, 24 RBI). Both guys are struggling in some regard this season, as Machado’s average is extremely low and Trumbo’s power numbers are down. Both guys need to get back on track in order for Baltimore to start winning games at a high clip again.
MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com
Double-Play Picks
Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Indians (-149, 9)
The Indians have put on their hitting shoes and have thumped the visiting A’s, taking the first two games of their four-game set by a combined score of 14-7. Cleveland will send Mike Clevinger to the mound to try and win the series Wednesday evening versus the A’s Sean Manaea.
Over the last three games the Indians have averaged eight runs per game and have hit six home runs in that span and will look forward to taking on the southpaw Manaea. Cleveland has hit 19 home runs versus left-handed pitchers this season, which is fourth most in the Major Leagues.
Clevinger has done a solid job since joining the Tribe’s rotation at the beginning of May. The right-hander is 2-1 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.164 WHIP. Clevinger has found most of his success by keeping runners off the base paths. Despite 12 walks, opponents own just a .292 on base percentage against him.
Clevinger will face an A’s club that is one of the worst road teams in baseball. Oakland has won just seven of 26 road games this year and no team has cost bettors more on the road at $-1069.
The A’s rank 27th in runs scored on the road, 24th in average and 23rd in OPS.
Pick: Indians -149
Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants (+160, 7.5)
The San Francisco Giants entertain the Washington Nationals in the final game of their tension-filled three-game series. Tonight's Game 3 features the sneaky best pitching matchup on Wednesday's MLB schedule.
We know all about Max Scherzer. As one of the most dominant starting pitchers in the game he brings no-hit potential to the mound in every start. His last start was a very impressive 8.2 innings of work, allowing only three hits and striking out 13 against the San Diego Padres. Tonight Max will face a team with an even worse offense than the Padres - the Giants own the worst home OPS in all of baseball with a pathetic .623 and will, most likely, get dominated by Scherzer on Wednesday.
On the other side, Matt Cain's overall numbers are middle-of-the-road - but a quick glance at his home/road split stats is fastinating. Cain has made five starts away from AT&T Park this season and is 0-2 with an ERA of 8.28. However, in his five home starts the numbers flip to a very impressive 3-1 record, 1.21 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and zero home runs allowed (compared to five home runs allowed on the road).
Under has cashed in six of the last seven meetings between the Nats and Giants and tonight should follow that trends. This one feels like a 3-1 or 4-2 type of game.
Pick: Under 7.5
Yesterday's Picks: 0-1-1
Season to Date: 47-40-5
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Jacob deGrom, New York Mets (4-1, 3.23 ERA, $69)
Mets' right-hander Jacob deGrom has looked better than he's looked all season in his last two trips to the hill - 15.1 innings pitched, one earned run, 10 hits allowed, four walks, 19 strikeouts, 0.59 ERA, 0.913 WHIP.
deGrom is picking up the necessary slack for the Met's rotation that is without Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, and a committed Matt Harvey. The Mets have a tough matchup today against Junior Guerra and the National League Central leading Milwaukee Brewers, but are a big moneyline favorite at -180.
Slumping: Luis Perdomo, San Diego Padres (0-2, 5.61 ERA, $-421)
Luis Perdomo of the Padres faces a tough matchup Wednesday against a struggling Cubs offense that is primed to explode - and explode they may do. Perdomo's last three starts have been less-than-stellar with an 0-2 record, an ERA of 8.40, and an opponent's on base percentage of .375.
Perdomo's home splits are almost as bad with an 0-1 record in five starts and an ERA of 7.11.
The Padres are big home dogs against Jake Arrieta and the Cubs at +160.
Wednesday's Top Trends
* The Philadelphia Phillies are 1-11 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing record. +110 today @ Marlins.
* Over is 7-1 in Masahiro Tanaka's last eight road starts. Yankees/Orioles Total: 9.
* The Chicago White Sox are 1-9 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. +140 today vs. Red Sox.
* Over is 6-0 in the Atlanta Braves' last six interleague games. Braves/Angels Total: 8.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
There is a slight chance of a thunderstorm developing late in the game at Camden Yards between the Baltimore Orioles and the New York Yankees, and that same scenario also applies to the game between the Milwaukee Brewers and the New York Mets in Queens.
There will be a nice hitter's wind (15-20 miles per hour) this afternoon in Minneapolis for the matchup between the Houston Astros and the Minnesota Twins. The Astros have been crushing the ball in this series and the total is currently set at 10. On the flip side there will be a 12-15 mile per hour pitcher's wind blowing in from left field in Cleveland for the game between the Indians and the visiting Oakland A's (total: 9).
Ump Of The Day
Trip Gibson III: The home team has enjoyed the benefit of the doubt for the most part when Gibson is behind the plate this season. The home team is 7-2 when Gibson is calling balls and strikes and 6-1 in his last seven. That has resulted in a home team money total of $481. That's good news for the Giants tonight as they host the Nationals with Gibson behind the plate. Plus, they're 6-1 in their last 7 games with Gibson behind home plate. San Francisco is currently a +165 home underdog.