MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, October 1

Wild Card Preview
VegasInsider.com

Giants at Pirates

San Francisco: 88-74 overall, 43-38 on road
Pittsburgh: 88-74 overall, 51-30 at home

Probable Pitchers:
SF: Bumgarner (18-10, 2.98 ERA)
PIT: Undecided

Season series: The Pirates went 4-2 in six matchups against the Giants, winning each series. The first three matchups at PNC Park in early May were all decided by one run, which included an 11-10 extra-innings victory by the Giants. The Pirates walked off past the Giants the next night in a 2-1 triumph on a Starling Marte triple in which he scored on an error. At AT&T Park two months later, the Pirates dominated the Giants in the first two victories by outscoring San Francisco, 8-1. The Giants avoided the sweep in the finale in a back-and-forth affair as both teams blew leads in a 7-5 San Francisco victory.

Season recap: San Francisco began the season on fire with a 43-21 record, which was capped off by a 15-3 run. The Giants stumbled to a 10-22 mark heading into the All-Star break, pretty much falling behind the Dodgers for good in the NL West race. The second half saw the Giants play around .500 baseball, but a key 6-1 stretch in early September, along with Milwaukee melting down, gave San Francisco the advantage in the NL Wild Card. The Pirates started slowly, putting together a 10-18 mark through 28 games. A 22-11 run by Pittsburgh through June and early July got the Bucs back on track, while the Pirates went 17-4 in September to clinch home-field in Wednesday’s Wild Card matchup.

Up next: The Nationals are waiting in the wings, which would make for some interesting travel if the Giants were to win on Wednesday. Washington dominated San Francisco this season, winning five of seven matchups, including three of four at AT&T Park in June. The Pirates took three of four from the Nationals at home in their first series, but Washington swept Pittsburgh in D.C. in September, which included a pair of walk-off victories.

Pirates host Giants
By Sportsbook.ag

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (88-74) at PITTSBURGH PIRATES (88-74)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: San Francisco -105, Pittsburgh -105, Total: 6

One game is all that separates the Giants and Pirates from moving on to the NLDS to face the Nationals, and the two 88-win clubs will meet Wednesday at PNC Park to determine which club extends its season.

San Francisco had a tough task in the NL West competing with the Dodgers, who have the highest salary in the majors, playing to their potential, but the Giants easily grabbed a Wild Card spot despite going 4-6 over their final 10 games. They did nearly equally as well on offense (665 runs, 12th in league) and in pitching (3.50 ERA, 10th in league) while finishing off the season on a high note with a 9-3 victory over San Diego. C Buster Posey (.311 BA) has been tremendous all year long and comes into this game after going 9-for-25 (.360) with a homer, 3 RBI and three runs over his final seven games.

Pittsburgh once again earned its way into the postseason after finishing with a 17-6 kick since Sept. 5, in which pitching reigned supreme by allowing a meager 1.7 runs per game in the victories. The Pirates had no trouble getting on base this year with the fifth-best average (.259) and third-best on-base percentage (.330) in the league. OF Andrew McCutchen (.314) has put together another phenomenal season and comes into this contest with an eight-game hitting streak in which he is 10-for-22 (.455) with two doubles, two home runs, 8 RBI and eight runs. The pitching matchup for this contest will peg LHP Madison Bumgarner (18-10, 2.98 ERA) of the Giants against RHP Edinson Volquez (13-7, 3.04 ERA) of the host Pirates.

San Francisco was solid on the road this season, going 43-38 (.531), but could have a lot of trouble against a Pittsburgh team that was 51-30 (.630) in the confines of its home ballpark. The Pirates have an 11-8 edge in this matchup over the past three seasons while going 6-3 at home and coming away victorious in 4-of-6 games this year. The Giants will be missing two of their veteran players for this one, as both 2B Marco Scutaro (back) and OF Angel Pagan (back) are out for the season, while Pittsburgh does not have any offensive players injured.

Madison Bumgarner has been extremely consistent over the past four years with at least 13 wins, 200 innings and an ERA below 3.40 each season. In 2014, he has struck out a career-high 9.1 batters per nine innings while posting a career-low walk-rate (1.8 BB/9) which has led to the most wins he’s had in a single season (18). The lanky left-hander has helped his team earn a win in six of his past seven starts, but did poorly his last time out against the Dodgers when he allowed four runs on six hits (3 HR) in 7.1 frames while striking out five (0 walks) in a losing effort. Over his four career starts against the Pirates, Bumgarner is 1-3 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, and did not pitch well in his one outing against them this season (4 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 2 K's, 2 BB's).

Both 2B Neil Walker (3-for-9) and OF Josh Harrison (4-for-5, 1 HR) have done well in this matchup over limited at-bats while stud OF Andrew McCutchen is a mere 2-for-10 with a couple of strikeouts against Bumgarner. The Giants’ bullpen has been outstanding this season, going 32-14 (.696) with a 3.01 ERA and 1.07 WHIP while converting 46-of-64 (72%) save chances. Santiago Casilla (1.70 ERA, 19 saves) has a low strikeout-rate (6.9 K/9) for a closer and is 19-for-23 (83%) in his save opportunities on the year.

Edinson Volquez was a welcome surprise for the Pirates’ rotation this season, as he recorded his most wins (13) since 2008 and had a career-best ERA of 3.04. To put into perspective how much of an improvement this was, consider that Volquez has had an ERA of 4.30 or worse in four of the past five seasons while walking at least 4.1 batters per nine innings each year. In 2014, he has allowed a career-low 3.3 BB/9, but may have benefited from some luck too, as batters hit a woeful .263 BABIP against him. Volquez has been torched by the Giants in his 11 career starts, going 2-2 with a 5.72 ERA and 1.59 WHIP, while striking out an impressive 9.5 batters per nine innings.

Both 1B Brandon Belt (8-for-18, 1 HR, 5 RBI) and 3B Pablo Sandoval (6-for-13, 3 doubles, 3 RBI) have done well in this matchup, while SS Brandon Crawford (3-for-20, 7 K's) has done poorly, and OF Hunter Pence (7-for-36, 2 doubles, 1 triple, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 16 K's) is all-or-nothing. Pittsburgh’s bullpen has been great this year, going 33-25 (.569) with a 3.28 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, but converting only 48-of-72 (67%) save chances. Closer Mark Melancon (1.90 ERA, 33 saves) has struck out one batter per inning while showing amazing control (1.4 BB/9). He has surrendered just two homers all year in his 71 frames (0.25 HR/9).

Check out more MLB Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag!

NL Wild Card Odds and Pick
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com

After going through a 20-year drought of not making the playoffs, the Pittsburgh Pirates will make their second consecutive postseason appearance as they welcome the San Francisco Giants for Wednesday's NL Wild Card game. Pittsburgh comes in having won 17 of their last 23 while the Giants will be looking to repeat performances from the past two even-numbered years and win the World Series. The Washington Nationals await the winner in Game 1 of the NLDS on Friday.

San Francisco Giants (88-74) at Pittsburgh Pirates (88-74)
Starters: Madison Bumgarner (18-10, 2.98 ERA) vs. Edinson Volquez (13-7, 3.04)
South Point line: Giants -113, 6 OV -115

Season series: Pirates 4-2, 2-1 home and away, and there were some barn-burners.

Line Movement: The Pirates opened -105 at the South Point sports book on Monday and quickly got bet up to -107, but in one big swoop they made the Giants the -110 favorite due to a combination of wagers and following the market. A few hours later, more Giants money came in and pushed the line to
-113. That exact type of movement occurred at the Golden Nugget as well.

Why we love the Giants: This team scraps and does all the little things right. They're just a flat-out good ball club. They're loaded with a locker room full of high-character guys like Hunter Pence and Buster Posey. Manager Bruce Bochy knows how to get the most out of his team and his instincts have been more right than wrong during the playoffs. They also seem to like playing on Wednesday's this season with an 18-7 record for +11 units. On the road, their 43-38 record returned +8.3 units.

Why we hate the Giants: Bumgarner is terrific and he might be good enough to elevate them into the NLDS, but the rotation is nowhere close to as strong as it was in their championship seasons. They also don't run a lot; only 56 stolen bases on the season, the second fewest behind Baltimore (44). However, the bottom three in steals -- including the St. Louis Cardinals -- are all in the playoffs. The Giants are also missing key players such as Angel Pagan and Michael Morse. Matt Cain is out as well, but he never got on track all season when he was healthy. The Giants were 34-37 against winning teams.

Why we like the Pirates: This team is actually very similar to the successful Giants World Series models. They're a scrappy bunch with a deep bullpen, deep rotation of quality arms, and they're great at the plate in key situations. Almost everyone in their lineup takes pitches, culminating in a third-place finish in on-base percentage (.330) behind the Dodgers and Tigers. We also love them at home, where they were 51-30 for +12.9 units of profit.

Why we hate the Pirates: They have several good starters, but nobody like Bumgarner, a true ace with big game experience under his belt. While Francisco Liriano and Volquez are both on incredible runs heading into the playoffs, they're not playoff aces -- yet. The Pirates took advantage of a weak September schedule playing several last-place teams, but against winning teams over the entire season they were only 33-39 which translated to -6.4 units for bettors

How has Volquez fared against Giants? He has a 2-2 record with a 5.72 ERA in 11 starts, a span in which his clubs went 3-8, but he didn't face the Giants in 2014. However, they haven't seen this version of Volquez, who is pitching better than ever. He's allowed two runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts and three or fewer in his last 12, which was good enough for manager Clint Hurdle to hand him the ball instead of Liriano on short rest. The Giants were 58-44 against right-handers this season for a +9.5 unit return.

How has Bumgarner fared against Pittsburgh? He's 1-3 with a 3.24 ERA in four starts all-time, including July 28 at San Francisco when he was shut out 5-0 by Vance Worley. He was a -155 favorite in that game where the Bucs scored four in the first and followed with a Josh Harrison homer in the second. All four of his starts against Pittsburgh have stayed UNDER the total. Coming in, the Giants have won six of his past seven starts overall. The Pirates were 20-13 against lefties this season for a +3.5 unit return.

Key Player for the Giants: Brandon Belt
When the Giants' bats were collectively smoking the ball in April, Belt was a huge contributor with six homers and it looked like he might be headed for an All-Star invite, but that enthusiasm was short lived as he's been injured most of the season. However, he collected six hits during a four-game hitting streak to end the season and if he continues getting back into form, he could be a definite game changer.

Key Player for the Pirates: Russell Martin
He's been hobbled by a hamstring injury, and not coincidentally, the Pirates' losses over the weekend to the Reds were without Martin. Of all the players brought in to help the Pirates make the playoffs over the past two seasons, none can say they have had as a big of an impact as Martin. He's not only helped with his leadership and handling of pitchers, but also with his bat. How many catchers in baseball this season can say they're on base 40 percent of the time? MVP candidate Buster Posey can't even boast that. There's only one, and it's Martin.

The Linemakers' lean: This is a big moment for Volquez and our hope is that he pitches better than his last playoff start which came as a member of the Reds back in 2010. He just happened to be on the wrong end of a Roy Halladay no-hitter. His recent play suggests he's not going to be hit upon too easily, and Bumgarner shouldn't allow too many runs either. The top play here is the game staying UNDER with a secondary play on the Pirates to win.

Giants @ Pirates

Bumgarner is 5-1, 2.42 in his last seven starts; he allowed five runs in four IP in his only start vs Pirates this year. He is 3-2, 3.79 in six postseason starts.

Volquez is 2-0, 1.54 in his last six starts; he allowed four iruns in 1.2 IP in his only postseason start, for Reds in '10. He didn't face Pittsburgh this season.

Giants lost five of last six road games, are 4-6 in last ten overall; they won the World Series in 2010 and 2012.

Pirates made playoffs last year for first time in 21 years- they've won 11 of their last 13 home games.

Bumgarner 19-14....10-33 first inning
Volquez 18-13.........8-31 first inning

Armadillosports.com

MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates

For the second straight year, the NL wild-card game will be playing in Pittsburgh's PNC Park. Last year, Pirates knocked the Reds out of postseason and this year they'll look to do the same to the Giants. Right-hander Edinson Volquez of the Pirates and left-hander Madison Bumgarner of the Giants get the call in this winner-take-all meeting. Volquez a pleasant surprise for Pirates has 13-7 record, 3.04 ERA on the campaign. The Pittsburgh hurler heads to the hill undefeated in 12 starts with Pirates 8-4 over the span. Volquez did not face SF this season but brings a 1-8 team start skid vs Giants tossing for LA/SD/CIN. On the other side, Bumgarner has 18-10 record, 2.98 ERA and ended regular season on a 1-5 stretch with Giants 6-1 over the 7 starts. The Giants' starter is 1-3 with a 3.24 ERA in four career starts against Pirates including a home loss this season getting smacked for 6 hits, 5 earned over 4.0 innings of work. Bumgarner known for pitching better on the road than at home heads to the mound 11-4 with a 2.22 ERA in 18 road starts (13-5 TSR). The clubs met six times this season with Pirates winning four of the matchups.

National League Wild Card: Giants at Pirates
By Covers.com

San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates (+104, 6.5)

The San Francisco Giants got a chance to line up their starting pitching in anticipation of a one-game wild card, and Madison Bumgarner is ready to go. The Pittsburgh Pirates, who host the Giants in the wild-card game on Wednesday, fought until the final day of the regular season for the National League Central crown and did not get a chance to line up their top starter. The Pirates went 51-30 at home in the regular season and won the 2013 NL wild card game.

San Francisco won the World Series in the last two even-numbered seasons but is taking its first crack at advancing via the one-game playoff and finished with three wins in their last four games after falling out of the NL West race. Pittsburgh elected to start Gerrit Cole on Sunday in an effort to chase down the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central and got 12 strikeouts in seven innings from the right-hander, but ended up losing the game and finishing two games shy of the Cardinals in the Division. The winner of the wild-card game gets to head to Washington to face the NL-best Nationals on Friday.

LINE HISTORY: The Pirates opened -104 but odds have moved to +104. The total opened at 6 and has risen a half-run to 6.5.

INJURY REPORT: Giants - LF Michael Morse (Questionable, oblique). Pirates - C Russell Martin (Questionable, hamstring), 1B Ike Davis (Questionable, flu), C Chris Stewart (Questionable, hand).

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid-60s with wind blowing in from center-right field at 3 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Giants (-184), Pirates (-180)

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Pirates exhibited an extreme home/road dichotomy this season (28 net game difference) as they were 51-30 in Pittsburgh, but just 37-44 on the road. The Giants are sending lefty Madison Bumgarner to the mound and one of the few weaknesses that Pittsburgh had at home this season came against left-handed pitchers as the Pirates averaged just 3.5 runs per nine-innings with a .254 team batting average versus southpaws, compared to 4.7 runs and a .274 team batting average at home versus right-handers." Covers Expert Steve Merril.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Back-to-back playoff appearances for Andrew McCutchen and the Pittsburgh Pirates. They play host to the battle-tested Giants squad, with the Pirates taking four of six from the Giants this season they have to feel good going into this game Wednesday night. So far it is all Giants action as a road favorite getting 71 percent and 74 percent respectively on the money line and run line." Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Giants LH Madison Bumgarner (18-10, 2.98 ERA) vs. Pirates RH Edinson Volquez (13-7, 3.04)

Bumgarner is unquestionably to ace of the San Francisco staff with Matt Cain injured and Tim Lincecum taking a step back from his Cy Young heights of past seasons. Bumgarner had a string of nine straight starts allowing three or fewer earned runs come to an end in his final start of the regular season, when he yielded three home runs and was charged with four runs in 7 1/3 innings at the Los Angeles Dodgers. The 25-year-old matched his shortest start of 2014 at home against Pittsburgh on July 28, when he was reached for five runs in four innings.

Volquez is coming into the start hot after back-to-back scoreless outings against Milwaukee and Atlanta. The Dominican Republic native struggles with his control from time to time but struck out 10 while issuing only one walk over seven innings at the Braves on Thursday. Volquez is facing the Giants for the first time this season and is 2-2 with a 5.72 ERA in 11

TRENDS:

* Giants are 1-4 in the last five meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in Bumgarner's last four starts vs. Pirates.
* Giants are 1-5 in their last six road games.
* Pirates are 4-0 in their last four games following an off day.

COVERS CONSENSUS: According to Covers Consensus, 53 percent of wagers are backing the Pirates.

San Francisco vs. Pittsburgh: National League Wild Card Preview
Atssportsline.com

The summer is over and now it's autumn in the sports world as the baseball playoffs are here. There are four wild card teams that will face off on Tuesday and Wednesday. ATSWins.com will preview both matchups along with the two series that begin on Thursday and Friday. Here is the preview of the National League wild card matchup.

San Francisco Giants (88-74, 76-76 O/U) at Pittsburgh Pirates (88-74, 74-79 O/U)

World Series Odds (from Bovada):
San Francisco: 12-1
Pittsburgh: 14-1

Last game: (7/30/14): San Francisco (-116) over Pittsburgh, 7-5. Pittsburgh has won four of six this season.

San Francisco is
8-2 last 10 road playoff games.
13-3 last 16 when opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
15-5 in Bumgarner's last 9 starts with 7 or more days of rest.
13-1 last 14 matchups on the over bet in the playoffs as a favorite of -110 to -150.

Pittsburgh is:
6-2 last 8 vs. San Francisco at home.
17-6 last 23 overall.
12-5 in Volquez's last 17 starts.
0-4 last 4 matchups on the under bet at home.

Pitching matchup: (LHP) Madison Bumgarner (18-10, 2.98 ERA) vs. (RHP) Edinson Volquez (13-7, 3.04 ERA)

Outlook

The winner of this series will face Washington on Friday. Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati last year in the wild card game as the Pirates returned to the playoffs for the first time since 1992. The Pirates are back in the playoffs this year and just missed out on the NL Central title, won by St. Louis.

At one point, it looked as though Milwaukee was going to take their place, but the Pirates won 17 of 23 games and were just one game behind the Cardinals on the final day. They ended up lost to Cincinnati, 4-1, despite receiving 12 strikeouts from Gerrit Cole.

Manager Clint Hurdle received some criticism for starting Cole, because the Cardinals ended up beating Arizona later on that day.

With Cole unavailable, the Pirates turn to Edinson Volquez, who had the highest ERA of any major league starter a year ago at 5.71. He's turned his career around by going 13-7 with a 3.04 ERA and leads Pittsburgh in starts with 31 and innings pitched with 192 2/3.

In his last five starts at home, Volquez has allowed four earned runs in 34 2/3 innings. However, he's winless against the Giants in nine starts. He hasn't faced them this season and last year, allowed 18 runs in 26 2/3 innings, pitching with the LA Dodgers and San Diego Padres. He has just one postseason appearance and it was in the NLDS with Cincinnati against Philadelphia in 2010. He was forced out in the second inning though it didn't matter since Roy Halladay threw a no-hitter for the Phillies.

San Francisco sends southpaw Madison Bumgarner to the mound. Bumgarner set a career-high for wins with 18 and strikeouts with 219 along with a 2.98 ERA.

On the road, Bumgarner is 11-4 with a 2.22 ERA in 18 road starts.

Against Pittsburgh, Bumgarner allowed five earned runs in four innings at home early in the year. But at PNC Park, he allowed just one run in six innings.

San Francisco is led by catcher Buster Posey, who has 22 home runs, 89 RBI and his hitting .279. They don't have a lot of power outside of Posey and Hunter Pence (.277, 20, 74).

Pittsburgh averages 4.21 runs per game (10th) and hits .259 (5th). They rank sixth in baseball with 156 home runs but rank 30th with 109 errors.

OF Andrew McCutchen is the Pirates best player, who hits .341 with 25 home runs and 83 RBIs. 1B Josh Harrison (.315, 13, 52, 18sb) had a breakout season, while Neil Walker (.271, 23, 76) provides power at second base.