MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, October 23

2013 World Series Breakdown

A look at the best-of-seven World Series between the St. Louis Cardinals and Boston Red Sox:

Betting Odds and Props

Series Price: Red Sox (-150) Cardinals (+130)

Game 1 Money-Line Odds: Red Sox (-122) Cardinals (+130)
Game 1 Run-Line Odds: Red Sox (-1 ½, +165) Cardinals (+1 ½, -190)
Game 1 Total Over 7 (-125) Under 7 (+105)

Exact Series Odds:

Cardinals 4 Games - 10/1
Cardinals 5 Games - 11/2
Cardinals 6 Games - 5/1
Cardinals 7 Games - 5/1
Red Sox 4 Games - 9/1
Red Sox 5 Games - 5/1
Red Sox 6 Games - 7/2
Red Sox 7 Games - 4/1

Total Number of Games Odds:

4 Games 5/1
5 Games 5/2
6 Games 3/2
7 Games 3/2

World Series MVP Odds:

Dustin Pedroia (Red Sox) 7/1
Carlos Beltran (Cardinals) 7/1
Matt Holliday (Cardinals) 7/1
Michael Wacha (Cardinals) 10/1
Jacoby Ellsbury (Red Sox) 10/1
Jon Lester (Red Sox) 10/1
Matt Carpenter (Cardinals) 10/1
Mike Napoli (Red Sox) 10/1
Yadier Molina (Cardinals) 10/1
David Ortiz (Red Sox) 10/1
Adam Wainwright (Cardinals) 10/1
Koji Uehara (Red Sox) 12/1
Shane Victorino (Red Sox) 12/1
Trevor Rosenthal (Cardinals) 12/1
David Freese (Cardinals) 12/1
Allen Craig (Cardinals) 12/1
Clay Buchholz (Red Sox) 15/1
Matt Adams (Cardinals) 15/1
Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Red Sox) 15/1
Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox) 18/1
Jon Jay (Cardinals) 18/1
Stephen Drew (Red Sox) 18/1
Field (Any Other Player not Listed Above) 7/1

Schedule

Game 1 - Wednesday, at Boston (8:07 p.m.)
Game 2 - Thursday, at Boston (8:07 p.m.)
Game 3 - Saturday, at St. Louis (8:07 p.m.)
Game 4 - Sunday, at St. Louis (8:15 p.m.)
x-Game 5 - Monday, Oct. 28, at St. Louis (8:07 p.m.)
x-Game 6 - Wednesday, Oct. 30, at Boston (8:07 p.m.)
x-Game 7 - Thursday, Oct. 31, at Boston (8:07 p.m.)

x-if necessary

Projected Lineups

Cardinals:
2B Matt Carpenter (.318, 11 HRs, 78 RBIs, .392 OBP; led MLB with 199 hits, 126 runs and 55 doubles)
RF Carlos Beltran (.296, 24, 84)
LF Matt Holliday (.300, 22, 94, .389 OBP)
C Yadier Molina (.319, 12, 80)
DH Allen Craig (.315, 13, 97, MLB-best .454 average with RISP)
3B David Freese (.262, 9, 60)
1B Matt Adams (.284, 17, 51 in 108 games)
CF Jon Jay (.276, 7, 67, 10 SBs) or Shane Robinson (.250, 2, 16 in 144 ABs)
SS Pete Kozma (.217, 1, 35) or Daniel Descalso (.238, 5, 43).

Red Sox:
CF Jacoby Ellsbury (.298, 9, 53, 92 runs, MLB-best 52/56 SBs)
RF Shane Victorino (.294, 15, 61, 21 SBs)
2B Dustin Pedroia (.301, 9, 84, 42 doubles, 17 SBs)
DH David Ortiz (.309, 30, 103, .959 OPS)
1B Mike Napoli (.259, 23, 92)
LF Jonny Gomes (.247, 13, 52) or Daniel Nava (.303, 12, 66)
C Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.273, 14, 65)
SS Stephen Drew (.253, 13, 67, 8 errors)
3B Xander Bogaerts (.250, 1, 5 in 44 ABs).

Projected Rotations

Cardinals:
RH Adam Wainwright (19-9, 2.94 ERA, 223 Ks, NL-high 241 2-3 IP)
RH Michael Wacha (4-1, 2.78 in 15 games, 9 starts; NLCS MVP)
RH Joe Kelly (10-5, 2.69 in 37 games, 15 starts)
RH Lance Lynn (15-10, 3.97).

Red Sox:
LH Jon Lester (15-8, 2.75, 213 1-3 IP)
RH John Lackey (10-13, 3.52, 2 CG)
RH Clay Buchholz (12-1, 1.74)
RH Jake Peavy (12-5, 4.17 with White Sox and Red Sox).

Relievers

Cardinals:
RH Trevor Rosenthal (2-4, 2.74 ERA, 3 saves)
RH Carlos Martinez (2-1, 5.08 in 21 games)
RH Seth Maness (5-2, 2.32, 16 GIDP in 62 IP)
LH Randy Choate (2-1, 2.29 in 64 games)
LH Kevin Siegrist (3-1, 0.45, 39 2-3 IP, 17 hits, 50 Ks, 18 BBs)
RH John Axford (7-7, 4.02 in 75 games; 1-0, 1.74 in 13 games with Cardinals after trade from Milwaukee)
RH Edward Mujica (2-1, 2.78, 37/41 saves)
RH Shelby Miller (15-9, 3.06 in 31 starts; led MLB rookies in wins).

Red Sox:
RH Koji Uehara (4-1, 1.09, 21/24 saves, 101 Ks, 9 BBs, 73 games; ALCS MVP)
RH Junichi Tazawa (5-4, 3.16, 71 games)
LH Craig Breslow (5-2, 1.81)
RH Brandon Workman (6-3, 4.97 in 20 games, 3 starts)
LH Felix Doubront (11-6, 4.32 in 29 games, 27 starts)
LH Franklin Morales (2-2, 4.62)
RH Ryan Dempster (8-9, 4.57 in 32 games, 29 starts).

Matchups

While these teams haven't run into each other in interleague play since June 2008, they have met in three memorable World Series throughout the years: St. Louis won seven-game thrillers in 1946 and 1967 before Boston rolled to a 2004 sweep that halted its 86-year championship drought. Aside from Yankees-Dodgers, there hasn't been a more frequent matchup since that first Red Sox-Cardinals clash.

Each one left its own mark in baseball lore. There was Enos Slaughter's ''mad dash'' home in 1946, when Red Sox shortstop Johnny Pesky appeared to hesitate on the relay, deciding a World Series that pitted Ted Williams against Stan Musial. There was Bob Gibson denying Carl Yastrzemski and Boston's ''Impossible Dream'' in 1967. And there was Curt Schilling's bloody sock and the end of The Curse of the Bambino nine years ago. The Red Sox never trailed in that Series.

Both model franchises rank among the most successful in baseball over the past 15 years. The Red Sox are seeking their third World Series title in 10 seasons. The Cardinals are going for their second in three years and third since 2006.

Both clubs won 97 games this season, tying for the best record in the majors. It marks the first time since the Yankees swept the Braves in 1999 that the top teams in each league have met in the World Series.

St. Louis led the National League with 783 runs. Boston topped the majors with 853.

The designated hitter creates key questions for both teams, as it often does in the World Series. Craig seems a perfect choice for the Cardinals when AL rules apply in Boston - he said Sunday he has recovered enough from a sprained left foot that's sidelined him since early September. And if Craig is healthy enough to play first base, then Adams could slide to DH. Holliday and Beltran could also be candidates, opening room in the outfield for two superior defenders in Robinson and Jay. But when there is no DH allowed in the NL park, the Red Sox have a difficult decision to make. They can keep Ortiz in the lineup at first base, but that puts Napoli on the bench. A proven postseason slugger, Napoli hit two big homers in the ALCS. He used to be a catcher, but hasn't caught all season.

Wainwright took a tough-luck loss in the NLCS but is 4-1 with a 2.10 ERA and 4 saves in 16 career postseason games, including 7 starts. He even helped St. Louis to a championship as a rookie closer in 2006.

Wacha, the NLCS MVP, has been almost unhittable lately, displaying remarkable poise for a 22-year-old rookie. He lost a no-hit bid against Washington on an infield single with two outs in the ninth inning of his final regular-season outing, then pitched 7 1-3 hitless innings at Pittsburgh before Pedro Alvarez homered in Game 4 of the NLDS. With the Cardinals facing elimination, Wacha won 2-1 to send the series back to St. Louis. In the NLCS, he outpitched Kershaw twice and threw 13 2-3 scoreless innings. He is 3-0 with a 0.43 ERA in 3 postseason starts.

With plenty of speed at the top of the lineup, the Red Sox like to run. With a rocket arm behind the plate, Molina makes it tough - he threw out 19 of 45 runners trying to steal this year. That matchup should be interesting. On the other side, St. Louis is short on wheels and rarely tries to steal. It's a role reversal of sorts - traditionally, the Red Sox have built their offenses on plodding sluggers, while the Cardinals love jackrabbits who can scoot.

More than a dozen players remain from the Cardinals team that won the 2011 World Series.

Boston is 8-0 in World Series games since losing Game 7 against the New York Mets in 1986.

Few in this matchup have faced the opposing pitchers, but Victorino and Gomes, two former NL players, each have homered off Wainwright.

Big Picture

Cardinals: After winning their 19th pennant, the Cardinals are seeking their 12th World Series title. They nearly repeated as NL champs in 2012 before blowing a 3-1 lead against San Francisco in the NLCS. This year, they opened a 3-1 lead over Los Angeles before dropping Game 5. But the Cardinals closed it out by thumping Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw in the Game 6 clincher.

When the season is on the line, nobody's been better than St. Louis. After winning the final two games of their best-of-five division series against Pittsburgh, the Cardinals are 8-1 when facing postseason elimination the past three years.

The pressure was on throughout the regular season and the Cardinals (97-65) pulled away at the finish from Pittsburgh and Cincinnati to win the NL Central after never leading by more than four games nor trailing by more than four. To win another championship, they'll need a long list of youngsters to keep coming through for second-year manager Mike Matheny.

After setting a franchise record by batting .330 with runners in scoring position, the Cardinals' potent lineup was minus a big bat in Craig during the playoffs. Adams hit eight homers filling in at first base down the stretch but can be vulnerable against lefties. His two-run homer in the eighth inning all but sealed Game 5 against Pittsburgh.

Kelly was a fill-in for the second straight year but ended up being the team's most consistent starter for about six weeks.

The 23-year-old Miller also is a top-end talent, but he was left out of the playoff rotation and has pitched only one inning of relief this postseason.

The bullpen anchors are also young, led by the hard-throwing Rosenthal. He has been dominant since taking over as the closer late in the season.

Cardinals rookies had a major league-high 36 wins.

St. Louis had plenty to overcome this year after losing longtime ace Chris Carpenter, closer Jason Motte and shortstop Rafael Furcal to season-ending injuries before the season even started. Still, the Cardinals racked up their most wins since 2005, when they won 100 games.

Wainwright tied Washington RHP Jordan Zimmermann for the NL lead in wins and joined Dizzy Dean (1934-35) and Mort Cooper (1942-43) as the only St. Louis pitchers to lead the league twice.

According to STATS, Adams became one of three rookies to reach 17 homers and 50 RBIs in fewer than 300 at_bats - the first to do it in the NL since Tom Haller for the Giants in 1962.

Red Sox: Boston (97-65) returned to the postseason for the first time since 2009 after one of the most tumultuous periods in franchise history. Following an unprecedented collapse in September 2011, the Red Sox brought in manager Bobby Valentine to restore order to a clubhouse that had grown complacent under two-time World Series champion Terry Francona. Players rebelled against Valentine and the team won just 69 games - its worst finish in almost half a century. The rebuilding began with the August 2012 trade of Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford to the Dodgers.

The AL's victory in the All-Star game gives them the extra home game in the World Series.

Under new manager John Farrell, the Red Sox became the second AL team in the three-division era to go from worst to first. Then they defeated the wild-card Rays 3-1 in the division series, winning both home games. Boston beat Detroit 4-2 in the ALCS to capture its 13th pennant, going 2-1 at Fenway Park despite nearly getting no-hit in the opener. Grand slams by Ortiz in Game 2 and Victorino in Game 6 rallied the Red Sox to victory.

This was Boston's first AL East title since 2007 and just the second since 1995.

Ortiz is the only player remaining from the 2004 World Series title team. Pedroia, Lester and Ellsbury were also on the 2007 champions.

The Red Sox never lost more than three games in a row this season, the first major league team to do that since the 2005 Cardinals. Boston has dropped three straight only twice since May.

The Red Sox were successful on 86.6 percent of stolen base attempts, the best in AL history since baseball started keeping track of caught stealings in the 1920s. Boston was successful on its final 39 tries during the regular season and 11 of 13 in the playoffs.

This is the fourth time Gomes has been a part of a big turnaround. The 2008 Rays won 31 more games than the year before; the 2010 Reds won 13 more, the 2012 Athletics won 20 more and this year's Red Sox won 28 more than the previous season.

What to Watch For

Welcome To The Show: One of the greatest hitters in playoff history, the 36-year-old Beltran has finally reached the first World Series of his 16-year career after three painful losses in Game 7 of the NLCS. Now, an even bigger stage for the eight-time All-Star, who can become a free agent after the season.

Lights Out: Neither closer came into the season with that role, but both have been sensational. Featuring a 100 mph fastball, Rosenthal has 3 saves and 9 strikeouts in 7 scoreless innings this postseason. Uehara inherited the job in Boston when former All-Stars Joel Hanrahan and Andrew Bailey were injured. The 38-year-old right-hander was phenomenal all summer, compiling 27 straight scoreless outings and retiring 37 batters in a row during one stretch. Previously a playoff flop with Texas, he gave up a game-winning homer against Tampa Bay in the ALDS but took home ALCS MVP honors with 3 saves and a win against Detroit. He is 1-1 with 5 saves, 13 Ks and a 1.00 ERA in 9 innings this postseason.

Youth Movement: The Cardinals aren't the only team with an impressive rookie or two. Late in the ALCS, Farrell benched slumping 3B Will Middlebrooks in favor of Bogaerts, a touted 21-year-old prospect with a keen eye and pop at the plate. Showing poise and patience beyond his years, Bogaerts has a .727 on-base percentage in limited postseason action, with 3 doubles and 5 walks. He's also scored 7 runs.

Home Turf: The Cardinals went 54-27 at Busch Stadium this season, the second-best home record in the majors, and 5-1 during the playoffs. But they were 2-3 on the road vs. Pittsburgh and Los Angeles, and won't have the luxury of home-field advantage in the World Series. Meanwhile, the Red Sox went 53-28 at Fenway Park during the regular season. They were 4-1 at home during the playoffs and 3-2 on the road.

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Cardinals at Red Sox: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

St. Louis Cardinals at Boston Red Sox (-119, 7)

The St. Louis Cardinals have won a pair of World Series since falling to the Boston Red Sox in 2004 and will make their fourth trip to the Fall Classic in 10 years looking for revenge. The Red Sox completed a remarkable turnaround from last place in 2012 and will try to take down the Cardinals again when they host Game 1 of the World Series on Wednesday. David Ortiz is the only player left from Boston’s sweep in 2004 and is still piling up key postseason hits.

St. Louis’ lone holdovers from that 2004 showdown are Mike Matheny, who went from starting catcher to manager, and Yadier Molina, who went from Matheny’s backup to one of the best catchers in the game. One of Boston’s big advantages in the American League playoffs was on the base paths - an area Molina regularly controls. The Cardinals and Red Sox are stacked up and down the roster and tied for the most wins in the majors during the regular season with 97.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the high 40s with partly cloudy skies and a 52 percent chance of rain early Wesnesday. Winds blowing west at 7 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cardinals RH Adam Wainwright (2-1, 1.57 ERA) vs. Red Sox LH Jon Lester (2-1, 2.33)

Wainwright served as the closer on St. Louis’ 2006 World Champion squad and was forced to watch the 2011 team win from the bench while recovering from Tommy John surgery. The 32-year-old led the National League with 19 wins during the regular season and was spectacular during the NL playoffs, striking out 20 batters while issuing one walk in 23 total innings. Wainwright’s lone road playoff start was his only loss, allowing two runs on six hits in seven innings at Los Angeles.

Lester allowed two or fewer runs in each of his three postseason starts and 10 of the last 13 going back to the regular season. The 29-year-old won the clinching game of the 2007 World Series in Colorado, allowing three hits in 5 2/3 scoreless innings. Lester is 4-4 with a 2.49 ERA in 11 career postseason games - nine starts.

TRENDS:

* Under is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings.
* Over is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings in Boston.
* Cardinals are 7-3 in their last 10 World Series games.
* Red Sox are 8-0 in their last eight World Series games.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Cardinals 1B Allen Craig (foot) missed the first two rounds of the playoffs but is expected to be activated for the World Series.

2. Boston rookie 3B Xander Bogaerts reached base in eight of his 11 postseason plate appearances and is likely to stay in the lineup.

3. St. Louis RF Carlos Beltran owns a .337 batting average and .449 on-base percentage with 16 homers and 37 RBIs in 45 career playoff games, but will be making his World Series debut.

World Series Game 1

Wainwright is 2-1, 1.57 in three playoff starts this season; in his career he has a 4-1, 2.10 career record in seven postseason starts.

Lester is 2-1, 2.33 in three postseason starts this year; he is 4-4, 2.49 in nine career postseason starts.

Cardinals are in playoffs for 10th time in last 14 years, so they're battle tested, having won World Series two years ago and in '06. St Louis is 7-4 in playoffs, 2-3 on road. Under is 5-3 in their last eight games. Cardinals are 5-5 playing in AL ballparks this year- those games had the DH (over 6-4).

Red Sox went 69-93 LY, retooled roster and are in playoffs for first time in four years; they won World Series in '04, and '07. Boston is 7-3 in playoffs, scoring total of seven runs in the losses. Over is 10-3-2 in their last fifteen games.

Armadillosports.com