Pirates at Cardinals: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals (-148, 6.5)
Series tied 2-2.
St. Louis Cardinals manager Mike Matheny gambled and won on his rookie sensation and now gets to play his ace in the highest-stakes game of the season. Matheny will send 19-game winner Adam Wainwright to the mound against the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday in a winner-take-all Game 5 of the National League Division Series. Matheny resisted the urge to pitch Wainwright in Game 4 and was rewarded when 22-year-old Michael Wacha took a no-hitter into the eighth in a 2-1 victory.
Pirates manager Clint Hurdle is rolling the dice with his pitching staff, bypassing Game 1 starter A.J. Burnett in favor of rookie Gerrit Cole, who was outstanding in winning Game 2. Pittsburgh has not captured a postseason series in 34 years and faces the daunting task of winning a deciding game on the road against a team that is 7-1 in playoff elimination games since 2011. The Pirates' only hit in Game 4 came on a home run by Pedro Alvarez, his third of the series.
WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 60s with clear skies and winds blowing SE at 5 mph.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Pirates RH Gerrit Cole (1-0, 1.50 ERA) vs. RH Adam Wainwright (1-0, 1.29)
Cole pitched more like a staff ace than a 23-year-old rookie in Game 2, allowing only one run on two hits in six innings to win his fifth consecutive start. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2011 draft has yielded five runs during his winning streak and has permitted more than five hits only once in his last six outings. He thrived away from Pittsburgh with a 4-2 mark and 2.38 ERA in seven regular-season road starts.
Wainwright was staked to an early seven-run lead and dominated in Game 1, limiting the Pirates to one run on three hits and striking out nine over seven innings. A winner of four straight starts, he stymied Pittsburgh on Sept. 7 in St. Louis, giving up only two hits in seven scoreless frames. Wainwright was 9-6 with a 2.53 ERA and four complete games in 17 home starts while holding hitters to a .217 batting average.
TRENDS:
* Over is 13-1-4 in Wainwright's last 18 starts vs. Pirates.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Over is 33-15-4 in the last 52 meetings in St. Louis.
* Pirates are 2-6 in the last eight meetings.
WALK-OFFS:
1. St. Louis was 54-27 at home during the regular season, the second-best record in the majors behind Atlanta.
2. Pirates CF Andrew McCutchen was 12-for-28 against Wainwright during the regular season and 1-for-3 off him in Game 1.
3. Both second baseman are struggling - St. Louis' Matt Carpenter is 1-for-15 and Pittsburgh's Neil Walker is 0-for-16 in the series.
PITTSBURGH (97 - 70) at ST LOUIS (99 - 67) - 5:05 PM
GERRIT COLE (R) vs. ADAM WAINWRIGHT (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 99-67 (+10.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 99-67 (+10.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ST LOUIS is 79-43 (+22.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 213-135 (+55.7 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.
PITTSBURGH is 97-70 (+24.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 40-29 (+8.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season.
PITTSBURGH is 45-38 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 18-12 (+8.3 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 or less this season.
PITTSBURGH is 15-5 (+9.3 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off this season.
PITTSBURGH is 48-33 (+14.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
PITTSBURGH is 97-70 (+24.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
PITTSBURGH is 64-40 (+19.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 79-57 (+21.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
PITTSBURGH is 42-27 (+14.9 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
PITTSBURGH is 39-34 (+10.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ST LOUIS is 52-45 (-9.5 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
ST LOUIS is 73-77 (-19.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 12-11 (+2.1 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
15 of 22 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+8.0 Units)
GERRIT COLE vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
COLE is 1-0 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 1.50 and a WHIP of 0.500.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)
ADAM WAINWRIGHT vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
WAINWRIGHT is 10-4 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 4.43 and a WHIP of 1.342.
His team's record is 12-7 (+0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 13-2. (+11.2 units)
PITTSBURGH vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
Pittsburgh is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
St. Louis is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
St. Louis is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh at St Louis
Pirates: 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in St. Louis.
Pirates: 6-0 in Coles last 6 starts
Cardinals: 8-3 vs Pirates w/Wainwright
Cardinals: 4-0 w/Wainwright when total set at 6.5 or lower
Pirates-Cardinals
Cole is 5-0, 1.41 in his last five starts, allowing one run on two hits in six IP in his one start vs St Louis this year- -his last three starts went over the total.
Wainwright is 4-0, 2.33 in his last four starts, 2-0, 2.57 in four starts against the Pirates this season.
Pirates won six of last eight ganes; they were held to one run in each series loss, scored 5-7 in wins-- four of their last five games went over the total.
Cardinals won 10 of their last 13 games, seven of last eight at home. In their last 14 games, over is 8-4-2.
Armadillosports.com
StatFox Super Situations
MLB PITTSBURGH at ST LOUIS
Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (ST LOUIS) with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better on the season, in October games 77-65 over the last 5 seasons. ( 54.2% 35.9 units ) 2-11 this year. ( 15.4% -8.9 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends
MLB PITTSBURGH at ST LOUIS
PITTSBURGH is 20-11 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in Road games vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season. The average score was: PITTSBURGH (4.2) , OPPONENT (3.5)
Game 5 - Pirates at Cardinals
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The first winner-takes-all game of the Divisional Round happens in St. Louis on Wednesday night. The Cardinals and Pirates have traded two victories apiece as the two NL Central rivals play one more time for the right to play the Dodgers in the National League Championship Series.
After splitting a pair of games at Busch Stadium, the Pirates pulled in front with a 5-3 victory in Game 3, but the offense dried up in a Game 4 loss on Monday. Pittsburgh's offense racked up only one hit against Michael Wacha in a 2-1 defeat, setting up tonight's decisive Game 5 with both pitchers on the mound that have dominated in their first appearances in the series.
Adam Wainwright (19-9, 2.94 ERA) shut down the Pittsburgh offense in the series opener, 9-1 as a $1.40 home favorite by scattering three hits and one earned run in seven innings of work. Wainwright struck out nine batters, while the Cardinals improved to 6-0 in his last six starts since September 7. The start of this hot streak came against Pittsburgh in a 5-0 shutout in early September, as the righty has allowed a total of five hits and one earned run in 14 innings of work.
The St. Louis offense provided Wainwright with a healthy 7-0 advantage in the third inning of Game 1 thanks to a seven-run outburst. Carlos Beltran drilled a three-run homer as the Cards chased A.J. Burnett, who recorded just six outs in the loss. However, the Pirates' ship wasn't going to sink after that blowout defeat heading into Game 2.
Pittsburgh's season comes down to the right arm of Gerrit Cole (10-7, 3.22 ERA), as the former UCLA standout limited the Cardinals to two hits and one earned run in six innings of a 7-1 blowout in Game 2. Since the beginning of September, the Pirates have won all six of Cole's starts, including road underdog wins at Texas and St. Louis. In seven of Cole's last nine outings, the Pirates have limited their opponents to two runs or less, but that resulted in just a 5-4 record to the 'under.'
The first three games of this series finished 'over' the total, until Monday's 2-1 decision that obviously went 'under' the total. Five of the last six meetings at Busch Stadium have hit the 'over,' with the winning club scoring at least five runs each time.
The Cardinals have won seven of 11 home meetings with the Pirates this season, including three victories by Wainwright. St. Louis has been in this situation before, winning Game 5 of the NLDS each of the last two Octobers against Philadelphia (2011) and Washington (2012). Last season was perhaps the most memorable comeback in the elimination contest, as the Cardinals rallied from a 6-0 deficit to stun the Nationals, 9-7 to advance to the NLCS.
The Pirates were last in this scenario back in 1992, when Pittsburgh fell in walk-off style to Atlanta on the famous Francisco Cabrera single against Stan Belinda to score the fleet-of-foot Sid Bream and push the Braves into the World Series. Pittsburgh has been on fire recently as a road underdog, posting a 7-1 record since getting swept at St. Louis in early September.
St. Louis is listed as a $1.60 home favorite, while the total is set at 6½. This elimination contest can be seen on TBS starting at 8:00 PM EST.
Pirates vs. Cardinals, Game 5 Odds and Pick – Can Wainwright be had?
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS -- After 24 meetings on the season, things will finally be settled between the Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals. Game 5 of their NLDS is set for tonight at Busch Stadium (8:05 p.m. ET, TBS).
It's been pretty even between the two teams all season, as the Pirates hold a slight, 12-11 lead. During their first postseason meeting against each other, it’s been much of the same, with pitching dominating for the winning side of all four games. For the series, the Pirates are batting .236 with 14 runs, and the Cardinals are .192 with 15 runs.
Game 5 starters: Gerrit Cole (11-7, 3.14 ERA) vs. Adam Wainwright (20-9, 2.90 ERA)
Game 5 odds: Cardinals -160, Total: 6.5 (under -115)
Game 5 outlook and pick: The Cardinals send ace Adam Wainwright to the mound to close things out, and with the way he’s been pitching over his last six starts, going 5-0, his -160 price is quite understandable. Two of those starts have been against the Pirates. One was a 5-0 win on Sept. 7, when the two teams were battling for the NL Central division lead. The other was in Game 1 of this NLDS, where he cruised to a 7-1 win, allowing only three hits and one run over seven innings.
He got no-decisions in two other outings against Pittsburgh this season, and the Cardinals went 1-1 in those games. In 14 innings of work in those two games, Wainwright allowed seven runs. He is 3-0 in five career postseason starts, but in Game 5 of the NLDS last season at Washington, he allowed six runs in 2 1/3 innings in a game the Cardinals eventually won, 9-7.
While Wainwright appears to be in a groove right now, it’s hard to forget how the Reds teed off on him in back-to-back starts on Aug. 28 and Sept. 2, when he allowed 15 runs in eight combined innings of work. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any game since.
Pirates manager Clint Hurdle made the tough choice to start A.J. Burnett in Game 1, and Burnett again got torched by the Cardinals. But Hurdle’s not making the same mistake today.
Rookie Gerrit Cole gets the nod after shutting down the Cards in Game 2, 7-1. He allowed only two hits in the game and at one point retired 11 straight batters. That’s pretty good stuff by a rookie on the road against the best hitting team in the league.
Like Wainwright, Cole is 5-0 in his last six starts and didn’t allow more than two runs in any of the six games. Each one of those outings was a pressure situation, and he shut everyone down.
Now the question is whether he can do it again while opposing one of the best pitchers in baseball. We think he can and expect a low-scoring game, say, Pirates 4-1.