MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, September 13th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Braves @ Nationals
Gohara allowed six runs in four IP (83 PT) in his first MLB start, a 12-8 loss to Texas. Braves’ first 5-inning record with him: 0-1
Scherzer is 2-0, 2.81 in his last five starts; over is 8-3 in his last 11 starts. He is 1-1, 3.20 in three starts vs Atlanta this season. Nationals are 10-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-8-2
Braves lost three of last five road games; over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games overall. Washington won six of last eight games; under is 4-1-1 in their last six home games.
Marlins @ Phillies
Straily is 2-0, 5.32 in his last four starts; Marlins scored 33 runs in the four games. Over is 4-1 in his last five starts. He is 3-1, 5.16 vs Philly this season. Marlins are 6-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-10-4
Nola is 1-3, 7.53 in his last five starts; under is 9-4 in his last 13 starts. He is 0-3, 11.93 vs Miami this season. Phillies are 7-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-6-7
Marlins lost 13 of last 15 games; over is 5-1 in their last six. Philly lost five of last eight games; under is 3-2 in their last five.
Pirates @ Brewers
Glasnow is making his first start since June 9; he is 0-3, 8.10 in his last four starts (over 9-2-2). Pirates are 2-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-7
Anderson is 2-0, 3.86 in his last three starts (over 2-0-1). Milwaukee is 5-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-7-2
Pirates lost six of their last seven games; under is 7-1 in their last eight. Milwaukee won four of last five games; they’re 5-2 in last seven home games. Under is 7-2-2 in their last 11 games.
Mets @ Cubs
Harvey is 1-1, 8.14 in his last five starts (over 3-1-1). Mets are 2-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-7
Lester is 2-0, 4.09 in his last two starts; Cubs scored 22 runs in those games. Over is 5-1 in his last six starts. Cubs are 10-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-10-6
Mets won five of last eight games; over is 10-4-2 in their last 16 games. Cubs lost six of last nine games; under is 7-4 in their last 11 home games.
Reds @ Cardinals
Mahle is 0-2, 3.60 in three starts this year (under 2-0-1). Reds are 0-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-2-1
Flaherty is 0-0, 6.00 in two MLB starts (over 1-1). This is his first home start. Cardinals’ first 5-inning record with him: 0-2
Reds lost six of last seven road games (under 4-2-1). St Louis won eight of last nine games; under is 6-3 in their last nine home games.
Rockies @ Diamondbacks
Marquez is 1-1, 5.24 in his last four starts; under is 8-1-1 in his last ten. He is 0-2, 3.94 in five starts vs Arizona this year. Colorado is 7-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-6-4
Corbin is 5-1, 2.48 in his last six starts; over is 8-3 in his last 11. He is 1-1, 5.87 in three starts vs Colorado this year. Arizona is 9-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-13-4
Rockies won eight of their last nine games; over is 6-1-1 in their last eight games. Arizona is lost four of last five games; over is 5-2-2 in their last nine home games.
Dodgers @ Giants
Darvish is 0-3, 9.49 in his last three starts; over is 4-1 in his last five starts. Dodgers are 2-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-3-1
Moore is 2-1, 3.38 in his last five starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. He is 0-1, 7.71 in three starts against the Dodgers this year. Giants are 5-9 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-18-6
Dodgers lost 15 of their last 17 games; over is 8-3 in their last 11 games. Giants are 4-13 in last 17 games; over is 4-1-1 in their last six.
American League
Orioles @ Blue Jays
Gausman is 1-2, 4.35 in his last four starts; under is 7-2 in his last nine. He is 2-0, 1.55 in five starts vs Toronto this year. Orioles are 6-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-15-1
Stroman is 0-1, 5.21 in his last four starts; over is 5-3-1 in his last nine starts. Toronto is 8-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-12-1
Orioles lost their last six games; under is 8-3 in their last 11 games. Toronto won its last four home games; under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games.
Tigers @ Indians
Farmer is 2-2, 9.56 in his last four starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five. Detroit is 3-0 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-4
Clevinger is 4-0, 1.23 in his last five starts; he’s thrown 18 consecutive scoreless innings. He is 3-0, 0.50 vs Detroit this year. Indians are 5-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-5-3
Tigers lost 10 of last 12 games; under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 road games. Cleveland won its last 20 games; under is 14-5 in their last 19 home games.
New York vs Tampa Bay (@ Citi Field in NYC- Rays are home team)
Garcia is 0-2, 6.57 in five starts for New York (under 4-1). NY is 1-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-4-1
Archer is 0-2, 9.28 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. He is 1-1, 3.72 in three starts vs NY this season. Rays’ first 5-inning record with him: 17-8-5
This series is in the Mets’ stadium because of the hurricane. New York won seven of last ten games; eight of their last 11 road games went over. Tampa Bay lost four of last six games; under is 3-0 in their last three games.
A’s @ Red Sox
Cotton is 0-0, 11.00 in his last two starts; his last three starts went over. Oakland is 4-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-12-1
Fister is 3-1, 1.50 in his last four starts; under is 5-1-1 in his last seven. Red Sox are 3-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-6
A’s won five of their last six games; over is 9-1 in their last ten games. Boston won five of last six games; under is 8-5 in their last 13 games.
Mariners @ Rangers
Leake is 2-0, 3.46 in two starts for Seattle (under 2-0). This is his first road start for Seattle. —Mariners’ first 5-inning record with him: 2-0
Perez is 7-0, 3.74 in his last seven starts; Texas scored 61 runs in those 7 games. Over is 4-1 in his last five starts. He is 1-1, 4.41 in three starts vs Seattle this year. Texas is 8-8 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-12-3
Mariners lost six of their last seven road games; seven of their last eight games overall stayed under. Texas lost four of last six games; over is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games.
White Sox @ Royals
Giolito is 2-2, 3.55 in four starts this year (under 3-1). This is his first road start. Chicago’s first 5-inning record with him: 2-2
Skoglund is 1-2, 10.33 in four starts this year (over 2-2). Royals split his two home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-2-2
Chicago won three of its last three games; over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. Royals are 6-4 in their last ten games; over is 8-4 in their last 12 games.
Astros @ Angels
Fiers is 1-3, 8.76 in his last five starts; over is 6-2-1 in his last nine starts. He is 2-0, 2.92 against the Angels this season. Astros are 7-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-12-3
Skaggs is 0-3, 8.10 in his last five starts; under is 5-3 in his last eight. Angels are 3-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-8-2
Astros lost four of their last five games, four of which went over the total. Angels lost four of last five games, all of which stayed under.
Interleague
Padres @ Twins
Lamet is 0-3, 2.78 in his last four starts (under 4-0); Padres scored total of three runs in those four games. San Diego is 4-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-7-2
Santana is 4-0, 4.56 in his last eight starts; over is 3-2 in his last five starts. Twins 7-8 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-7-6
Padres won three of last five games; under is 5-4 in their last nine road games. Minnesota is 4-5 in its last nine games; over is 6-2 in their last eight home games.
Record with this pitcher starting
Atl-Wsh: Gohara 0-1; Scherzer 19-8
Mia-Phil: Straily 14-15; Nola 11-13
Pitt-Mil: Glasnow 5-7; Anderson 11-10
NY-Chi: Harvey 6-9; Lester 16-12
Cin-StL: Mahle 0-3; Flaherty 2-0
Colo-Az: Marquez 16-9; Corbin 15-14
LA-SF: Darvish 3-3; Moore 9-19
American League
Balt-Tor: Gausman 15-15; Stroman 17-12
Det-Clev: Farmer 4-3; Clevinger 12-7
NY-TB: Garcia 2-3; Archer 15-15
A’s-Bos: Cotton 9-13; Fister 6-5
Sea-Tex: Leake 2-0; Perez 14-14
Chi-KC: Giolito 2-2; Skoglund 1-3
Hst-LAA: Fiers 15-12; Skaggs 5-7
Interleague
SD-Minn: Lamet 9-9; Santana 15-12
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National League
Atl-Wsh: Gohara 1-1; Scherzer 6-27
Mia-Phil: Straily 6-29; Nola 6-24
Pitt-Mil: Glasnow 4-12; Anderson 6-21
NY-Chi: Harvey 8-15; Lester 9-28
Cin-StL: Mahle 0-3; Flaherty 0-2
Colo-Az: Marquez 7-25; Corbin 12-29
LA-SF: Darvish 4-6; Moore 9-28
American League
Balt-Tor: Gausman 9-30; Stroman 5-29
Det-Clev: Farmer 2-7; Clevinger 2-19
NY-TB: Garcia 4-5; Archer 10-30
A’s-Bos: Cotton 9-22; Fister 6-11
Sea-Tex: Leake 2-2; Perez 12-28
Chi-KC: Giolito 0-4; Skoglund 2-4
Hst-LAA: Fiers 8-27; Skaggs 7-12
Interleague
SD-Minn: Lamet 5-18; Santana 6-27
Umpires
National League
Atl-Wsh: Under is 6-3 in last nine Bellino games.
Mia-Phil: Under is 8-2 in last ten Bucknor games.
Pitt-Mil: Five of last six BWelke games went over.
NY-Chi: Five of last six Danley games stayed under.
Cin-StL: Over is 8-5 in Barber games this season.
Colo-Az: Six of last seven Drake games went over.
LA-SF: Underdogs are 6-3 in last nine Gibson games.
American League
Balt-Tor: Home teams are 14-3 in last 17 Iassogna games.
Det-Clev: Over is 4-2-1 in last seven Wolcott games.
NY-TB: Under is 10-2 in last dozen Hernandez games.
A’s-Bos: Favorites won 8 of last 10 Wendelstedt games.
Sea-Tex: Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Carapazza games.
Chi-KC: Over is 6-2 in last eight Kulpa games.
Hst-LAA: Underdogs are 4-3 in last seven Blaser games.
Interleague
SD-Minn: Over is 12-4-1 in last 17 Reynolds games.
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 82-56 AL, favorites -$136
AL @ NL– 72-67 NL, favorites +$35
Total: 149-128 AL, favorites -$101
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 70-66-4
AL @ NL: Over 74-59-7
Total: Over 144-125-11
Armadillosports.com
Wednesday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Indians (20-0 last 20) vs. Tigers
The American League pennant will have to go through Cleveland once again. The Indians tied the 2002 Oakland Athletics’ record for most consecutive victories by an AL team after blanking the Tigers, 2-0 on Tuesday. Cleveland hasn’t allowed more than two runs in seven straight wins, while yielding only five runs in the past six victories over Detroit in September.
The Indians go for win number 21 in a row in a matinee at Progressive Field as Mike Clevinger takes the mound. The right-hander hasn’t given up a run in his last three starts, while striking out 22 batters in his past 18 innings of work. Clevinger owns a perfect 3-0 record against the Tigers this season, yielding one run in 18 innings, while scattering eight hits.
Coldest team: Dodgers (1-11 last 12) at Giants
Although Los Angeles snapped its 11-game losing skid in Tuesday’s 5-3 victory at San Francisco, the Dodgers still qualify for this category. It wasn’t easy, as closer Kelsey Jansen escaped a bases-loaded jam to give Los Angeles its first win since September 1 at San Diego, which was also started by Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers have lost 15 in a row when Kershaw doesn’t toe the rubber, with the last victory by a starter other than the Cy Young winner coming on August 25 against Milwaukee.
Yu Darvish will look to extend the winning streak to two at AT&T Park as the right-hander has lost his past three starts, all as a favorite of -200 or higher. In Darvish’s previous two outings, he has allowed 10 earned runs in only 7.1 innings of work, but he does boast a 2-1 record in three road starts with the Dodgers since getting traded from Texas in late August.
Hottest pitcher: Doug Fister, Red Sox (5-7, 3.91 ERA)
In Fister’s first four starts with Boston, the Sox lost three times, while allowing 18 runs in that span. The right-hander has turned things around recently, as Boston has compiled a 4-2 record in his past six starts, including a pair of dominating performances against red-hot Cleveland. Fister has tossed at least seven innings in four consecutive starts, including recent victories over the Blue Jays and Yankees. The Red Sox continue their series with the A’s after Boston pounded Oakland on Tuesday, 11-1.
Coldest pitcher: Tyler Glasnow, Pirates (2-6, 7.45 ERA)
Pittsburgh couldn’t capitalize off Monday’s shutout of Milwaukee as the Pirates lost last night at Miller Park. Things won’t get easier as Glasnow searches for his first victory since May 18. Granted, the right-hander has been pitching at Triple-A the last few months, but he finished his tenure with the big club losing his final three starts, while giving up 16 runs in that span.
Biggest OVER run: Athletics (9-1 last 10)
Oakland’s offense took the night off on Tuesday following a productive weekend against Houston. The A’s topped the nine-run mark in all four victories against the Astros, but could muster only a single run in Tuesday’s 11-1 blowout at Boston. Another OVER can be in the works at Fenway Park as Jharel Cotton has registered three straight OVERS for Oakland, while allowing at least five runs in four of his past five road starts.
Biggest UNDER run: Orioles (5-0 last five)
Baltimore is going backwards at the wrong time by dropping its sixth consecutive game on Tuesday, 3-2 in walk-off fashion to Toronto. The Orioles’ offense isn’t helping the cause by scoring two runs or fewer in five losses during this stretch. Kevin Gausman looks to end Baltimore’s recent woes as the right-hander was knocked around in his past outing against the Yankees by allowing five earned runs in a 9-1 defeat. In spite of that OVER against New York, the Orioles are 7-2 to the UNDER in Gausman’s last nine starts.
Matchup to watch: Astros vs. Angels
Houston is still firmly in control of the AL West, but the Astros were tripped up this past weekend in a four-game sweep by the Athletics. The Astros likely won’t get home-field advantage in the American League as the Indians have passed Houston in that department following Cleveland’s massive winning streak. However, the Astros did end their losing streak on Tuesday behind Justin Verlander in a 1-0 shutout of the Angels to send Los Angeles to its fourth defeat in the last five games.
Lance McCullers, Jr. was set to start for the Astros, but he was scratched due to arm fatigue. Mike Fiers will take the mound in McCullers’ place, looking for his first victory since August 23 against the Nationals. The right-hander hasn’t pitched well of late, allowing 14 earned runs in a pair of starts against the Rangers and Mets, while giving up two earned runs in an inning of relief of a 9-8 setback at Oakland last Friday. Fiers has seen success against the Angels this season by posting a 2-0 record, including a 5-3 victory in Anaheim back in May.
Tyler Skaggs counters for Los Angeles, as the southpaw is winless in his last five trips to the mound. The Angels are 1-4 in this stretch with the only victory coincidentally coming against the Astros in a dramatic 7-6 triumph as L.A. erased a 6-1 deficit. The Angels’ offense has been quiet of late by scoring one run or fewer in three of its last four losses, but the Halos own a solid 7-1 record in their last eight Game 2’s of a home series.
Betcha didn’t know: The Twins have the ability to bust out the bats at any given time. Minnesota dropped a 20-spot earlier this season in a blowout of Seattle, while ripping San Diego on Tuesday, 16-0. The Twins have responded well after scoring in double-digits by posting a 6-2 record in their next game in the last eight opportunities in this situation. Following last night’s win, Minnesota has compiled nine consecutive victories over National League opponents.
Biggest public favorite: Nationals (-325) vs. Braves
Biggest public underdog: Yankees (+105) vs. Rays
Biggest line move: Mariners (-105 to -110) at Rangers
MLB Betting Picks & Tips
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
New York at Tampa Bay (-120); Total: 8.5
Jaime Garcia and Chris Archer square off at Citi Field as the Yankees and Rays wrap up their early-week set in the home of the Mets. The teams have split the first two games of this series and the Rays are a short favorite for Wednesday afternoon’s contest. The Rays have had their issues against left-handed pitching this season, but Jaime Garcia has had his share of issues overall this season. The Garcia acquisition hasn’t been what the Yankees were looking for. He has a 5.11 ERA with a 5.58 FIP and a 5.07 xFIP in 24.2 innings of work across five starts. The long ball has been the problem for Garcia thus far with four home runs allowed. He has also issued 16 walks against just 20 strikeouts.
League changes can be challenging. Garcia is throwing to a new set of catchers. He’s facing lineups with a DH every five days. The AL is a tougher league to pitch in, even though some of the best offenses this season reside in the NL. A drop in control and command for Garcia makes things really tough with his new team. He hasn’t buried his team in any of his starts, so you have to apply some context here. He only allowed more than three earned runs once in his first start with the Yankees. Still, he isn’t giving New York any kind of length, with less than six innings in all five starts.
I won’t be backing Chris Archer today. Archer left his outing two starts ago with some forearm discomfort. The Rays’ medical staff assured Archer and the coaches that he was fine and he pitched on regular rest. He allowed eight runs, six earned, on nine hits across three innings of work. I need to see that Archer is healthy and effective before I back him again.
Miami at Philadelphia (-110); Total: 9
The pillow fight that is the Marlins and Phillies series features a pitching matchup of Dan Straily against Aaron Nola tonight. After yesterday’s 9-8 thriller, we’re seeing the total climb a little bit on this game. That’s a surprise with Nola, who has been a sharp darling on a bad team, a proverbial oasis in the barren desert, this season. I would expect to see a line move on the Phillies this morning.
Dan Straily has a 3.95 ERA with a 4.43 FIP and a 4.77 xFIP. With Straily’s declining strikeout rate, I’m honestly surprised that he has been able to keep his ERA under 4. Straily went from a 27.4 percent K% in April to a 24.5 percent in May to a 23.4 percent in June to a 14 percent in July to a 23.9 percent in August to a 14.3 percent in September. Straily’s walk rate is back up to around eight percent after sitting below five percent in June and July. It has been a weird season for Straily, who shined early, struggled in the middle, bounced back later, and is now scuffling again. In the second half, even with his fly ball heavy profile, Straily has allowed a .328 BABIP against. That’s not the type of guy that I am interested in backing.
Aaron Nola has a 3.71 ERA with a 3.27 FIP and a 3.51 xFIP on the season. After battling injuries last year and injuries earlier this year, Nola has worked 148 MLB innings and 10.1 more at the Triple-A level. This is a career high in innings pitched for him. From June 22 to August 12, Nola strung together a long list of starts with two or fewer runs allowed. In the five starts since, he has allowed 22 runs. He’s still missing bats at a decent clip, but his command has gone by the wayside.
Still, to me, Nola is the side here. He’s the higher-upside play and the Phillies lineup has gotten a lot more talented and a lot more interesting with Nick Williams and Rhys Hoskins. Jorge Alfaro and JP Crawford are also signs of the youth movement. Aaron Altherr is back around the team after dealing with a persistent hamstring problem. The Phillies have some incentive to play out the string with all these young players. That isn’t really the case for Miami. The Phillies are a buy team for a good portion of the rest of the season in my humble opinion.
Baltimore at Toronto (-115); Total: 8.5
Kevin Gausman is the preferred side from sharp players as the Orioles and Blue Jays get together at the Rogers Centre. The Jays are countering with Marcus Stroman. This looks like a little bit of a numbers play, as Stroman has a 3.18 ERA with a 3.85 FIP and a 3.56 xFIP. We’re seeing more ERA/FIP-induced line moves because the league average HR/FB% is so out of whack. Stroman has a 77.6 percent LOB%, so the market is probably looking to fade that metric as well. The problem that I have with a Stroman fade is that he’s an extreme ground ball guy and the Orioles aren’t the type of offense to string a lot of innings together. They need to hit home runs to be effective.
Gausman has some signs of positive regression with a .345 BABIP against, a 4.99 ERA with a 4.75 FIP and a 4.50 xFIP, and few decent starts here in recent weeks. Gausman has faced Toronto five teams this season and the Jays haven’t had much success, which is probably a consideration as well. Team vs. pitcher sample sizes aren’t a great barometer of anything with small sample sizes, but bettors will look for edges wherever and whenever they can.
The line on Toronto was too high at -130, so I get the numbers grab. It isn’t enough to make me want to play Baltimore at this reduced price.
Seattle (-110) at Texas; Total: 11
I’m faced with a dilemma on Wednesday night. As I talked about at the time of the trade, Mike Leake was a guy that I wanted to fade coming over to the American League. He has been good so far in his two starts with four earned runs allowed on 14 hits in 13 innings of work. The 12/1 K/BB ratio is pretty impressive. It is just two starts, though, and he faced Oakland and Anaheim at home. Now Leake goes out on the road against the Texas Rangers. This is the fade spot that I’ve been looking for with the league change and with a couple of unsustainable metrics for Leake.
Unfortunately, Martin Perez is the guy on the other side. Perez has a 4.81 ERA with a 4.50 FIP and a 4.68 xFIP. He has a profile that you simply don’t want to touch in any capacity. His GB%, which was one of his few positive assets, has gone down this season and his HR/FB% has still gone up. He has no command with a .336 BABIP against. I’ll wait around and see if this line moves into playable range, but I can tell you that I probably won’t be very invested, despite a situation that would normally be favorable.
Houston (-125) at Los Angeles; Total: 8
Mike Fiers will get the start in place of Lance McCullers as the Astros take on the Angels and Tyler Skaggs. Tuesday’s line move was dead wrong against Justin Verlander. I talked about how great of a fit I think he is for the Astros. Today, I’m not sure what to make of this line. Angel Stadium is the type of park that can suppress the biggest issue for Fiers. It is not a good park for hitting for power. Fiers has allowed a 19.6 percent HR/FB% with 31 HR allowed in 149.2 innings of work. He actually has a solid strikeout rate. His walk rate is a bit high, but he has done a good job of stranding runners. He has a 4.87 ERA with a 5.44 FIP and a 4.64 xFIP on the year.
Tyler Skaggs has had some command issues of his own in his 12 starts this season. The left-hander missed all of 2015 and most of 2016 with Tommy John and related setbacks. He has a 4.86 ERA with a 4.39 FIP and a 4.47 xFIP in his 63 innings of work. He has missed some bats, but has also hit some barrels. His last start was his first really good one from a strikeout standpoint in a few outings, but he has allowed six home runs over his last five starts and has been really extreme to the fly ball side in three of his last four outings. It’s not a bad plan in Anaheim, so maybe it works for him here, but it didn’t work well in Texas two starts ago.
These two guys feel pretty similar to me. When you consider that the Astros have the more reliable bullpen and the better lineup, the line is about right. I don’t see an edge one way or another in this spot. It’s a card without a whole lot of action today.
Rockies, Diamondbacks clash on Wednesday
By: StatFox.com
The Rockies will be looking to take the third of a four-game set against the Diamondbacks on Wednesday.
Colorado has been up-and-down recently over the past month or so, but the team is definitely up coming into this one. The Rockies have won six straight and eight of their past nine heading into this contest, and they can secure a series win over the Diamondbacks by coming away with a victory on Wednesday. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, have now lost four of their past five games. Their lead over the Rockies in the NL wild card race is now only three games, so this matchup is definitely going to be important. Whoever has homefield advantage in the wild card game will have a huge edge later in the year, so these teams are going to continue to battle for positioning in the standings. The starters in this Wednesday night matchup are set to be RHP German Marquez (10-6, 4.27 ERA, 136 K) for the Rockies and LHP Patrick Corbin (13-12, 4.16 ERA, 161 K) for the Diamondbacks. It’s worth noting that Colorado is an impressive 25-23 against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the past two seasons. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, are 27-13 against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 on the year.
The Rockies are looking to keep this thing rolling on Wednesday and they’ll need a solid performance out of Marquez in order to do that. Marquez did not pitch very well in his most recent trip to the mound, as he allowed two earned runs in four innings of work in a start against the Dodgers on Sep. 8. He had, however, pitched six innings in each of his previous three starts and allowed an average of three earned runs per start in those contests. If he can give Colorado a quality start on Wednesday then it would be big for the team, but it should be noted that he allowed four earned runs in six innings in a 5-1 loss against this same Diamondbacks team on Sep. 3. As for Colorado’s lineup, two guys to pay close attention to are OF Charlie Blackmon and 2B DJ LeMahieu. The two of them are a combined 22-for-60 with two doubles, four triples, three homers, and eight RBI against Patrick Corbin in their careers. Both guys are incredible hitters, but they clearly like this matchup and should be counted on to produce on Wednesday.
The Diamondbacks aren’t necessarily going to be kicking themselves over their poor play as of late, but they definitely want to get themselves going soon. One positive for Arizona is that Corbin is going to be on the mound here and the lefty allowed just one earned run in 55.1 innings of work against the Rockies on Sep. 2. If he can turn in a similar outing here then it’d be hard to imagine the Diamondbacks dropping this one. Corbin did, however, allow a miserable eight earned runs in 4.1 innings of work in his most recent start, and that same pitcher can’t show up on Wednesday. Offensively, 1B Paul Goldschmidt should be able to do some serious damage on Wednesday. Goldschmidt has really hit Marquez hard in his career, as he is 4-for-8 with two homers and four RBI against the righty in their head-to-head history. If he can go yard once again on Wednesday then that would be huge for Arizona.