Game of the Day: Giants at Dodgers
By Covers.com
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers (-255, 6)
The Los Angeles Dodgers have a magic number of one for winning the National League West and, appropriately, will have their magic man on the mound when they go for the division clincher. Clayton Kershaw seeks his major league-leading 21st victory as the Dodgers host the second-place San Francisco Giants in Wednesday's finale of the three-game series. Kershaw has won six consecutive starts and can match his career high for victories set in 2011, when he won his first Cy Young Award.
San Francisco is jockeying with Pittsburgh for the top wild card and home-field advantage for the one-game playoff, and fell a game behind the Pirates with the loss. While the Giants may not want to witness Los Angeles clinching at their expense, they also have a magic number of one for nailing down a wild-card slot, leading Milwaukee by five games with five to play. San Francisco is getting no production from the middle of its lineup, with Hunter Pence mired in a 1-for-25 slump and Pablo Sandoval in a 2-for-24 rut.
LINE HISTORY: Pinnacle Sports opened the Dodgers as -235 fave but have moved to -255. The total has held at six.
INJURY REPORT: Giants - LF Michael Morse (Questionable, oblique), CF Angel Pagan (Out for season).
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Giants (-175), Dodgers (-195)
WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid-70s with clear skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 5 mph.
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Giants seem to have saved their worst for last, fresh off an ugly sweep at the hands of the Padres. The Dodgers are giving up a few too many runs right now, but they're still in the driver's seat to clinch the N.L. West." Covers Expert Sean Murphy.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Giants RH Tim Hudson (9-12, 3.52 ERA) vs. Dodgers LH Clayton Kershaw (20-3, 1.80)
Hudson won seven of his first nine decisions with the Giants and owned a major league-leading 1.81 ERA on June 12, but he has won only twice since then. The 39-year-old Hudson has been knocked around for 14 runs in 11 1/3 innings over a three-start skid, including a disastrous performance versus Los Angeles on Sept. 13, when he was pounded for six runs in in a career-low one-plus innings. Hudson has fared well away from home with a 2.88 ERA in 15 starts.
Kershaw labored through five innings at the Chicago Cubs last time out, giving up three runs on seven hits, but still managed to win his sixth consecutive start. Kershaw won at San Francisco on Sept. 14 with eight innings of two-run ball to improve to 13-5 with a 1.44 ERA lifetime against the Giants. Kershaw has tormented Pence, who is 4-for-49 with 11 strikeouts against him, while limiting Brandon Crawford to 1-for-17.
TRENDS:
* Under is 16-3-2 in Kershaws last 21 starts vs. Giants.
* Giants are 1-4 in Hudson's last five road starts.
* Dodgers are 4-0 in their last four games with Fairchild behind home plate.
* Dodgers are 9-0 in Kershaws last nine starts as a home favorite of -201 or greater.
COVERS CONSENSUS: 64 percent of wagers on Covers Consensus are backing Kershaw and the Dodgers.
MLB Betting Cheat Sheet
By Covers.com
NL an Under Haven
Tuesday’s action saw all seven National League games hit the Under, despite five of those games carrying a modest total of 6.5. None of the 14 NL teams involved scored more than four runs, while one - the Philadelphia Phillies - was shut out.
Kershaw’s Curtain Call
Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw will make his final regular-season start Wednesday as Los Angeles (-255, 6) hosts the San Francisco Giants. Kershaw (20-3, 1.70 ERA) ranks second in the majors in value ($1,482), while the Dodgers are 19-1 in his last 20 starts.
National Treasure
The Washington Nationals have shown no signs of slowing down as they enter Thursday’s encounter with the visiting New York Mets. The Nationals are 9-1 in their last 10 games and sit at +945 units for the season, tops in the NL.
Pitching Notes
Chicago lefty Chris Sale will look to bounce back as he leads the White Sox (+115, 7) into a Wednesday tilt with host Detroit. Sale was tagged for five runs in his last start after allowing just four combined runs in his previous four outings.
Andrew Cashner will try to secure his spot as one of the top Under pitchers of the season Thursday as his San Diego Padres face off against host San Francisco. Cashner is 5-13 O/U for the season, including a 2-5 O/U mark on the road.
Hitting Notes
Toronto outfielder Jose Bautista looks to remain hot as he prepares to lead the host Blue Jays (-111, 8.5) against Seattle on Wednesday. Bautista has 18 home runs and 49 RBIs in 219 at-bats since the All-Star break while posting a .995 OPS in that span.
Baltimore slugger Nelson Cruz may struggle to add to his league-leading home-run total Thursday as he faces off against Yankees hurler Hiroki Kuroda. Cruz, who has 40 homers, is just 3-for-25 lifetime versus Kuroda and hasn’t taken him deep.
Totals Streak
Washington Nationals (1-8 O/U): No team has been hotter on the hill than the Nationals, who have surrendered two runs or fewer in eight of their last nine games. The recent Under surge has Washington sitting 75-68-13 O/U entering Wednesday’s action.
Prop of the Day
Bettors should consider taking a shot on the Los Angeles Angels to upend host Oakland by more than two runs (+450). The Angels have defeated the Athletics six times in their last seven encounters, including twice in their last three games in Oakland.
Injury Notes
Minnesota first baseman Joe Mauer will likely miss Wednesday’s game against visiting Arizona (-158, 7.5) after taking a pitch in the elbow Tuesday. Mauer has missed 39 games this season; the Twins are 16-23 SU, 17-22 O/U and -287 units in those contests.
Washington will give outfielder Denard Span the day off after he tore up his knee making a diving catch Tuesday against the Mets. The Nationals are 3-6 SU, 6-3 O/U and -355 units in nine games Span has missed so far in 2014.
Weather Watch
Fans at Nationals Park should expect wind blowing in from center field at 13 mph for Wednesday’s game against New York. Teams combined to go 10-5 O/U in 15 games under similar conditions in 2013, hitting .282 while averaging better than nine runs.
Umpire Note of the Day
Under is 10-1-1 in umpire John Baker’s last 12 Wednesday games behind home plate. Baker will call the balls and strikes for the game between the host San Diego Padres (-126, 7) and the Colorado Rockies.
MLB Odds and Pick
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews.com
The Chicago Cubs' Jake Arrieta (+115) is one of the reasons there is increased optimism about the future in Wrigley Field. Arrieta has posted a 2.65 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and 9.44 K/9 in 149.2 innings in 2014, and he's set to start against the St. Louis Cardinals and John Lackey in what is likely his final start of the season.
Not only has Arrieta been stellar in September (1.27 ERA, 0.80 WHIP), but he's dominated the Cardinals. He didn't factor into any of the three decisions, but he posted a 1.76 ERA and 18 Ks over 15.1 innings.
If the strong work of Arrieta isn't enough, it's also worth considering that the Cardinals rank in the bottom third of the league in runs scored.
Tonight is a great opportunity to take plus-money on one of the games top under-the-radar starting pitchers against what has been a mediocre offense.
Wednesday's selection
Cubs (Arrieta) +115 vs. Cardinals