MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, September 27th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Braves @ Mets
Newcomb is 2-0, 3.37 in his last two starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. Atlanta is 2-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-11

Gsellman is 1-1, 6.19 in his last three starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five. Mets are 6-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-11-2

Atlanta won four of its last seven games; under is 10-3 in their last 13 games. Mets are 5-11 in their last 16 games; under is 6-3 in their last nine home games.

Nationals @ Phillies
Roark is 2-2, 3.38 in his last five starts; under is 9-1 in his last 10 starts. Nationals are 8-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-12-2

Leiter is 1-3, 7.39 in his last five starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Phillies are 1-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-6

Washington won six of last nine games; under is 10-4-2 in their last 16 games. Phillies lost four of their last six games; under is 9-1-2 in their last 12.

Reds @ Brewers
Bailey is 1-3, 4.88 in his last five starts (under 3-1-1). Reds are 4-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-10-1

Woodruff is 1-1, 4.71 in his last five starts (under 5-1-1). Brewers are 1-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-2-2

Reds lost their last seven games; under is 8-4 in their last 12 games. Milwaukee lost three of last five games (under 3-1-1). Brewers are 1.5 games out in the Wild Card race.

Cubs @ Cardinals
Lackey is 1-1, 2.78 in his last four starts; over is 5-2-2 in his last nine. Chicago is 8-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-17-3

Wacha is 3-1, 2.93 in his last five starts (under 4-1). Cardinals are 8-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-11-5

Cubs won 11 of last 14 games; under is 6-3-1 in their last ten. St Louis won six of last eight home games; under is 6-3 in their last nine.

Marlins @ Rockies
Conley is 1-1, 8.44 in his last four starts; over is 7-1-1 in his last nine. Miami is 5-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-6-3

Gray is 3-0, 1.50 in his last four starts; under is 6-1 in his last seven. Colorado is 5-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-6-2

Marlins won six of last ten games; 10 of their last 13 road games went over. Colorado lost six of its last nine games; under is 10-2 in their last 12 games. Rockies have 1.5-game lead in race for the last Wild Card spot.

Giants @ Diamondbacks
Samardzija is 0-3, 6.50 in his last three starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Giants are 6-10 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-16-7

Shipley is 0-1, 8.00 in his last two starts (over 1-1), last of which was June 4. This is his first home start of the year. Arizona’s first 5-inning record with him: 0-1-1

Giants won five of their last eight games; under is 9-3 in their last 12 games. Arizona lost five of last nine games; over is 5-1 in their last six games.

Padres @ Dodgers
Richard is 2-1, 1.86 in his last three starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. San Diego is 4-10 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-15-2

Hill is 2-0, 1.64 in his last two starts (under 13-10-1). Dodgers are 7-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-9-4

San Diego lost its last three games (under 8-5). Dodgers are 5-1 in their last six games; under is 8-3-3 in their last 14.

American League

Rays @ New York
Andriese is 0-3, 9.35 in his last four starts; over is 7-3 in his last ten. Tampa Bay is 1-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-5

Severino is 4-1, 2.68 in his last seven starts; over is 10-1 in his last 11. New York is 10-5 in his home starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 17-10-3

Tampa Bay is 4-7 in its last 11 games; three of their last four games went over. New York won 10 of last 13 games; under is 5-3-1 in their last nine.

Twins @ Indians
Mejia is 0-2, 6.75 in his last four starts; under is 7-4-1 in his last 11. Minnesota is 4-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-6-4

Salazar is 1-1, 12.38 in his last three starts; under is 5-3-1 in his last nine. Cleveland is 2-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-6-3

Twins won their last five games; over is 5-0-1 in their last six games. Cleveland is 29-3 in its last 32 games; under is 10-4 in their last 14 home games.

Blue Jays @ Red Sox
Estrada is 5-0, 3.32 in his last six starts; under is 3-0-1 in his last four. Toronto is 7-10 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-15-3

Porcello is 1-2, 5.82 in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Boston is 7-11 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-19-3

Toronto won four of its last five games; over is 3-0 in their last three games. Boston won nine of last 12 games; over is 4-1 in their last five home games.

Astros @ Rangers
Verlander is 4-0, 0.64 in four starts for Houston (under 4-0). Astros won both his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-0-2

Martinez is 0-4, 6.89 in his last six starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Texas is 4-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-10-3

Houston won 10 of its last 12 games; under is 6-3 in their last nine. Texas lost its last five games; under is 7-3 in their last ten.

Angels @ White Sox
Richards is 0-2, 1.88 in five starts this year (under 4-1); Angels scored 2 runs in his last three starts. Halos are 2-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-3-1

Lopez is 3-0, 6.05 in his last three starts (over 3-0); Chicago scored 28 runs in the three games. White Sox are 2-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-3

Angels lost seven of their last nine games; seven of their last nine road games stayed under. Chicago won four of last six games; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine home games.

Tigers @ Royals
Zimmerman is 1-4, 9.25 in his last five starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. Detroit is 4-10 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-16

Hammel is 0-3, 13.50 in his last three starts; over is 8-1 in his last nine starts. Royals are 4-11 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-15-7

Detroit lost its last eight games; over is 8-3-1 in their last 12. Royals are 5-8 in their last 13 games; under is 9-5 in their last 14.

Mariners @ A’s
Ramirez is 0-2, 3.82 in his last five starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. Seattle is 3-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-5

Graveman is 2-0, 1.20 in his last three starts; over is 6-4 in his last ten. Oakland is 8-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-5-6

Seattle lost eight of its last 11 games, but won last two; under is 14-7 in their last 21. Oakland is 14-5 in its last 18 games, but lost last two; over is 10-4 in their last 14 home games.

Interleague

Orioles @ Pirates
Ynoa is 1-2, 3.71 in three starts this year (under 2-1). Orioles lost both his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-2

Kuhl is 1-3, 3.67 in his last five starts (under 4-1). Pirates are 8-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-12-4

Orioles lost eight of last 11 games; over is 9-3 in their last 12. Pittsburgh won four of last five games; under is 16-6 in their last 22 games.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
Wsh-Phil: Roark 17-11; Leiter 4-6
Atl-NY: Newcomb 7-11; Gsellman 10-11
Cin-Mil: Bailey 6-11; Woodruff 3-4
Chi-StL: Lackey 18-10; Wacha 15-14
Mia-Colo: Conley 9-10; Gray 12-7
SF-Az: Samardzija 13-18; Shipley 0-2
SD-LA: Richard 13-18; Hill 14-10

American League
TB-NY: Andriese 6-10; Severino 19-11
Min-Clev: Mejia 9-11; Salazar 9-9
Tor-Bos: Estrada 16-16; Porcello 15-17
Hst-Tex: Verlander 4-0; Martinez 7-10
LA-Chi: Richards 2-3; Lopez 4-3
Det-KC: Zimmerman 10-18; Hammel 10-21
Sea-A’s: Ramirez 4-6; Graveman 8-10

Interleague
Balt-Pitt: Ynoa 1-2; Kuhl 11-19

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Wsh-Phil: Roark 11-28; Leiter 6-10
Atl-NY: Newcomb 5-18; Gsellman 9-21
Cin-Mil: Bailey 9-17; Woodruff 1-7
Chi-StL: Lackey 16-28; Wacha 4-29
Mia-Colo: Conley 8-19; Gray 4-19
SF-Az: Samardzija 12-31; Shipley 0-2
SD-LA: Richard 9-31; Hill 8-24

American League
TB-NY: Andriese 10-16; Severino 6-30
Min-Clev: Mejia 6-20; Salazar 8-18
Tor-Bos: Estrada 11-32; Porcello 10-32
Hst-Tex: Verlander 0-4; Martinez 4-17
LA-Chi: Richards 1-5; Lopez 1-7
Det-KC: Zimmerman 10-28; Hammel 6-27
Sea-A’s: Ramirez 3-10; Graveman 8-18

Interleague
Balt-Pitt: Ynoa 1-3; Kuhl 6-30

Umpires

National League
Wsh-Phil: Three of last four Randazzo games stayed under.
Atl-NY: Four of last five May games stayed under.
Cin-Mil: Last six Dreckman games stayed under total.
Chi-StL: Three of last four LBarrett games went over.
Mia-Colo: Four of last five Porter games went over.
SF-Az: Underdogs are 13-3 in last 16 Blaser games.
SD-LA: Five of last seven Little games stayed under.

American League
TB-NY: Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Estabrook games.
Min-Clev: Three of last four Danley games went over.
Tor-Bos: Five of last seven Vanover games went over.
Hst-Tex: Underdogs won five of last seven Guccione games.
LA-Chi: Underdogs won four of last six Foster games.
Det-KC: Under is 8-3 in last eleven Reyburn games.
Sea-A’s: Underdogs are 7-7 in last 14 Woodring games.

Interleague
Balt-Pitt: Under is 9-2 in last 11 Segal games.

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 84-57 AL, favorites -$280
AL @ NL– 74-72 NL, favorites +$296
Total: 156-131 AL, favorites +$16

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 71-68-4
AL @ NL: Over 75-64-8
Total: Over 146-132-12

Armadillosports.com

MLB Betting Picks & Tips
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Houston (-190) at Texas; Total: 10

Just wanted to drop in on this game and say that Texas team total under is definitely on my list today. Justin Verlander was already pitching better before he joined the Astros and has allowed two runs on 11 hits with a 32/5 K/BB ratio in his 28 innings with his new team. Not only has pitching in a playoff race rejuvenated him, I think the Astros are a phenomenal fit for Verlander. He’s a smart dude and has made a lot of adjustments over the last few seasons to regain velocity and find new ways to get hitters out. Being with an analytically-minded organization can only help him. I can’t imagine a better fit for Verlander and he’s in a really nice groove right now in terms of locating his pitches and attacking hitters.

I don’t think Texas has much of a chance tonight and I’ll be backing him in the ALDS against Boston, New York, or Minnesota.

Seattle at Oakland (-115); Total: 9.5

Remember when there was all that buzz about Kendall Graveman? He was going to be this year’s Zach Davies in terms of contact-based arms that can survive with elite command. Well, he got hurt and it never came close to happening. Graveman’s season comes to a close today with a start against Erasmo Ramirez and the Mariners.

Ramirez is a really tough guy for me to figure out. It seems like scouting and analysts have raved about the quality of the stuff and the durability to work a lot of roles, but the numbers have only shown it one time, back in 2015 when he was worth 2.3 fWAR. In his 10 starts with the Mariners, Ramirez has a 3.79/4.80/4.23 pitcher slash. His 17.4 percent HR/FB% really stands out, as he has allowed 12 HR in 57 innings. He’s coming off a start in which he struck out one of the best contact lineups in baseball, the Indians, 10 times and allowed just three hits. That was one of those starts that validates those opinions that I mentioned. On the other hand, he’s a pretty run-of-the-mill dude with a 4.19/4.38/4.17 career pitcher slash in 587 innings. I just don’t know how to price him or what to expect.

What I do know is that Oakland hitters swing for the fences. The fact that Ramirez has allowed 22 HR in 126.1 innings isn’t a great boost of confidence for today’s day game in Oakland.

Kendall Graveman has a 4.17 ERA with a 4.32 FIP and a 4.59 xFIP. It isn’t a very sexy profile at all and he has only managed to work 99.1 innings out of his 18 starts. Since his return from the DL on August 3, Graveman has a 4.47 ERA with a 4.18 FIP and a 4.65 xFIP. I would love to see him on a team with a decent defense since he has a .335 BABIP against and has done a good job of keeping the ball in the park. I don’t love the profile, though. Ground balls are good, but mixing some strikeouts in the mix is also good. We’re in an era where the number of strikeouts has risen every year this decade. It will again this season when all is said and done. We are 57 strikeouts behind with five days worth of games left. At least other command guys like Zach Davies and Kyle Hendricks miss more bats.

Quietly, Oakland is 14-5 over the last 19 games, so the A’s have started putting things together a little bit. Initially, I wanted to go with Seattle here, but this is the last home game for Oakland, so maybe they rally once again. On the other hand, Seattle has won the first two in this series and can win out for a .500 record. That is a motivation for teams at this point in time. Seattle had lost eight of nine before this series started. Perhaps Oakland is the way to look here.

Minnesota at Cleveland (no line)

This is one of the games without a line, but the Twins can clinch the second Wild Card spot with a win today. They’ve been a pesky team for the Indians for several years now and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them scratch this one out. Danny Salazar will only throw maybe 60-75 pitches in this one, so the Indians will be bridging the gap with a lot of middle reliever types. Andrew Miller probably won’t work back-to-back days. The Indians have bigger motivations. Getting their 100th win is all but a formality at this point. It seems like they are pushing for home field throughout the AL part of the playoffs, but that isn’t a worry that will go in front of player health.

Adalberto Mejia is nothing special, but the Twins are certainly motivated for tonight’s proceedings and play very good defense, which allows bad pitchers to play up a bit. I think the Twins are going to be worth a look. I’m not sure where this number opens, probably $2 or higher, and I’d look to hit it. The Indians have played at such a remarkable level for so long. We saw a bit of regression hit with yesterday’s bullpen meltdown and that possibility is certainly there today.

Detroit at Kansas City (-175); Total: 9.5

If you’re looking at a money line parlay or want to consider a run-line play, the Royals are part of the equation. I’ve talked about this, but this is a team that wants to finish strong. This is a team that wants to go 4-1 or better to finish .500. There are still motivations, even though the playoffs are not attainable and the window is closing. Even with Jason Hammel, I’d lay the big number here or work some derivatives in there.

The Tigers have nothing to play for. They have a lame-duck manager. This should be a Royals win and could very well be a comfortable one at that given the fact that Jordan Zimmermann is starting.

Wednesday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Twins (5-0 last five) vs. Indians

Minnesota is on the doorstep of completing an incredible turnaround following a 59-103 campaign in 2016. The Twins’ magic number sits at one for clinching the final Wild Card spot in the American League after defeating the Indians on Tuesday, 8-6 as +165 road underdogs. Bartolo Colon exited the game following one inning of work, but Brian Dozier saved the Twins by drilling a three-run homer in the seventh inning to take a 7-6 advantage.

The Twins’ offense continues to hit the ball around the field as they have scored at least seven runs in each victory during this five-game winning streak. Adalberto Mejia takes the mound for Minnesota as the southpaw tossed 4.2 innings in his previous outing at Detroit, a 12-1 rout of the Tigers. The Twins have won four of Mejia’s six road outings this season, including a 5-0 victory at Progressive Field in late June.

Coldest team: Reds (0-7 last seven) vs. Brewers

Milwaukee is holding onto to dear life after edging Cincinnati on Tuesday, 7-6 to remain 1½ games behind Colorado for the second Wild Card spot in the National League. The Reds will look to play spoilers, but have dropped each of their past three meetings at Miller Park, while allowing at least five runs in each of their last seven losses. Cincinnati’s struggles on the road continue as the Reds are 2-8 in their last 10 games away from Great American Ballpark.

Homer Bailey tries to stop the bleeding for the Reds as Cincinnati owns a 2-5 record in his past seven outings. Bailey has pitched well recently against the Brewers as Cincinnati won his previous two outings in the underdog role by one run apiece, including an 11-10 triumph at Miller Park as a +160 underdog.

Hottest pitcher: Luis Severino, Yankees (13-6, 3.03 ERA)

New York may have found its ace for the future this season by winning 19 of Severino’s 30 starts. Severino lasted only three innings in his last start against the Twins, but the right-hander had tossed six consecutive quality outings prior to that short stint. Tonight will be the 10th time this season that Severino is listed as a favorite of -200 or higher as the Yankees have dominated in this role by going 8-1. Severino allowed three earned runs in two starts against the Rays this season, as New York is 1-1 in those outings.

Coldest pitcher: Jason Hammel, Royals (8-13, 5.32 ERA)

Kansas City faltered down the stretch, but the Royals picked up their eighth win over the Tigers in the last nine meetings on Tuesday, 2-1. Hammel has been knocked around in his last three starts by giving up 29 hits and 18 earned runs as the Royals are 0-3 in this stretch. The right-hander last won on September 6, which came at Detroit, 13-2 as -130 favorites, scattering nine hits and two earned runs in six innings. The Royals have won three of Hammel’s four starts against the Tigers this season, but the lone loss came at home in May.

Biggest OVER run: Orioles (10-2 last 12)

Amazingly, Baltimore is on this OVER run as its offense has been grounded recently. In the last 10 games, the O’s have produced three runs or fewer six times, while coming off Tuesday’s 10-1 drubbing at Pittsburgh. So it’s a pitching problem for Baltimore, as the Orioles have allowed at least eight runs six time in the past 10 contests, while compiling a dreadful 4-15 record the last 19 games overall. Gabriel Ynoa heads to the hill for the O’s in the series finale at PNC Park, as the right-hander is coming off his best career start by allowing one earned run in eight innings of a 3-1 victory over the Rays last Thursday.

Biggest UNDER run: Phillies (5-0 last five)

Philadelphia’s offense stepped up against Los Angeles last week by scoring a combined 13 runs in two of the victories. Recently, the Phillies have plated only 11 runs in the last five contests, including two runs in each of the three games at Atlanta this past weekend. Philadelphia knocked off Washington on Tuesday, 4-1 as the pitching staff has performed well of late by giving up only four runs in the last three games. Mark Leiter, Jr. takes the mound for Philadelphia as the Phillies are 4-0-1 to the UNDER in his five starts at Citizens Bank Park.

Matchup to watch: Cubs vs. Cardinals

Chicago was denied another NL Central title in last night’s 8-7 loss at Busch Stadium. The Cubs dug themselves an early 5-1 hole as Jake Arrieta lasted only three innings and rallied for four runs in the eighth inning, but couldn’t finish off the comeback. The Cardinals are still alive Wild Card race, sitting 2½ games behind Colorado for the final NL playoff spot, while the Cubs maintain a five-game edge over the Brewers in the NL Central with five games remaining.

The Cubs can clinch the division championship tonight as John Lackey heads to the hill. Chicago has won 11 of Lackey’s last 13 starts, including an 8-2 victory at Wrigley Field over St. Louis on September 15. The Cubs have cruised to a 5-1 record in his last six road starts, while winning in his only outing at Busch Stadium back in April, 6-4 as a -120 favorite.

The Cardinals defeated the Cubs for the first time in the last seven meetings last night as Michael Wacha looks to start a winning streak for St. Louis. Wacha has given up three earned runs or fewer in five consecutive starts, while the Cardinals are 4-1 in that span. The Redbirds have won six of Wacha’s last nine starts at Busch Stadium, but are 0-3 in his three starts against the Cubs this season, although all three losses came in Chicago.

Betcha didn’t know: Seattle will fall short of the postseason, but the Mariners have dominated the Athletics recently. The M’s are 8-0 in the past eight meetings with their AL West counterparts, while winning five straight matchups at the Coliseum. To make matters worse for Oakland, starting pitcher Kendall Graveman is winless in his last six starts against the Mariners since 2016.

Biggest public favorite: Yankees (-260) vs. Rays

Biggest public underdog: Mariners (+105) at Athletics

Biggest line move: Rockies (-180 to -185) vs. Marlins

Cardinals host Cubs
By: StatFox.com

The Cubs will be trying to clinch the NL Central once again when they take on the Cardinals on Wednesday.

Chicago had a chance to defeat St. Louis and clinch the NL West on Tuesday, but the Cardinals came ready to play in that one. St. Louis jumped out to an early lead and Chicago was never able to tie it up, despite clawing back and making it an 8-7 game. St. Louis is still playing for a spot in the NL Wild Card Game, but the team is going to need to really turn it on now. There are only five games remaining and the Cardinals will probably have to win all of them in order to grab the second spot in the game. One thing that should have St. Louis feeling good here is that the team seemingly has the edge on the mound. Chicago will be trotting out RHP John Lackey (11-11, 4.67 ERA, 145 K) in this one and he’ll be going up against St. Louis’ RHP Michael Wacha (12-8, 4.00 ERA, 150 K). The Cubs have dominated this series on the year, though. Chicago is 12-5 against St. Louis this year, but the Cardinals are a competitive 4-4 at home.

The Cubs are definitely disappointed about the way they started the game on Wednesday, but they can’t dwell on it now. They’ll have a few more chances to clinch the division, but they should be able to do it and one can imagine that they’ll definitely be eager to do it on Wednesday. Lackey is starting this one for Chicago, and the righty has been pretty lousy recently. He has pitched just 8.2 innings over the past two games, and the Cubs will be hoping that he can work deeper into this one. In Lackey’s only start against the Cardinals at Busch Stadium this season, the righty pitched six innings of three-run ball and struck out seven batters. If he can turn in a performance like that on Wednesday then Chicago will have a shot. On offense, the Cubs will be expecting big games from both 1B Anthony Rizzo and 3B Kris Bryant. Both guys have really hit Wacha hard in their careers, as they are a combined 25-for-61 with three doubles, four homers and 12 RBI against him.

The Cardinals are hanging on for dear life in the NL wild card race, but they know that they have very little room for error. St. Louis is pretty much playing an elimination game every time the team steps on the field for the rest of the season. With that in mind, expect the Cardinals to play with some serious intensity on Wednesday. Wacha is the guy that will be taking the ball for them in this one and the righty has been rock solid as of late. He has allowed three or fewer earned runs in five straight starts, and the Cardinals can’t ask for much more from him here. Offensively, two guys that St. Louis will be hoping can step up here are OF Dexter Fowler and SS Aledmys Diaz. The two of them are a combined 10-for-28 with three doubles, a homer and three RBI against Lackey in their careers. These are not players that can always be counted on to come through for the Cardinals, so it would be big for them to get production from them here.