MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, September 6th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Phillies @ Mets
Pivetta is 1-2, 6.75 in his last four starts; over is 6-3-1 in his last ten. He is 1-0, 5.40 in two starts vs New York this year. Phillies are 4-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-12-2

Gsellman is 0-3, 9.00 in his last six starts; under is 6-3 in his last nine starts. Mets are 3-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-10-1

Milone is 0-3, 9.43 in five starts for the Mets (over 4-0-1). Mets lost all three of his starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-3

Phillies won four of last six games; under is 4-3 in their last seven road games. Mets are 6-17 in their last 23 games; over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games.

Brewers @ Reds
Garza is 0-2, 10.66 in his last three starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five starts. He is 1-0, 7.71 in two starts against the Reds this season. Milwaukee is 2-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-9-3

Castillo is 0-2, 2.67 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Reds are 2-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-8-1. This is likely his last start of the year; he is a prospect and his innings are 20% over last year, so he’ll probably be shut down after this.

Milwaukee lost three of last four games; under is 12-2-2 in their last 16 road games. Reds won four of last six games; under is 4-2-1 in their last seven home games.

Giants @ Rockies
Cueto is 0-0, 6.60 in his last three starts; his last four starts went over. He is 1-1, 6.00 against the Rockies this season. Giants are 6-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-8-4

Freeland is 0-2, 5.40 in his last four starts; under is 8-4 in his last 12. He is 2-1, 2.37 against the Giants this year. Colorado is 7-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-10-1

Giants lost 10 of last 12 games; under is 11-5 in their last 16 games. Colorado lost six of last nine games but won last two; under is 8-2 in their last ten games.

Cubs @ Pirates
Quintana is 3-1, 5.32 in his last four starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. Cubs are 1-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-4-2

Cole is 1-1, 4.97 in his last four starts; over is 4-1 in his last five starts. He is 1-1, 2.07 vs Chicago this year. Pirates are 6-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-14-6

Cubs won six of last nine games (under 6-3). Pittsburgh won their last four games; under is 5-2 in their last seven home games.

Cardinals @ Padres
Flaherty allowed five runs in four IP (71 PT) in his MLB debut, at SF. Cardinals’ first 5-inning record with him: 0-1

Lamet is 2-2, 2.36 in his last six starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. Padres are 4-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-7-2

Cardinals won five of last six games; over is 7-4 in their last 11 games. San Diego won five of last eight games; over is 5-3 in their last eight games.

Nationals @ Marlins
Gonzalez is 5-1, 2.01 in his last six starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight. He is 2-0, 0.43 in three starts against Miami this season. Washington is 9-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-6-5

Lefty Peters blanked Philly for seven innings (91 PT) in his MLB debut. Marlins’ first 5-inning record with him: 1-0

Nationals won three of last four games; under is 7-1-2 in their last ten road games. Miami lost eight of last nine games; under is 6-1-1 in their last eight home games.

Diamondbacks @ Dodgers
Walker is 2-0, 0.53 in his last three starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. He is 1-0, 4.22 in two starts vs LA this season. Arizona is 7-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-8-4

Maeda is 1-2, 7.20 in his last three starts; under is 7-2-2 in his last 11. He is 0-1, 9.00 in three starts vs Arizona this year. Dodgers won his last nine home starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 14-6-2

Arizona won its last 12 games; under is 5-2 in their last seven road games. Dodgers lost ten of last 12 games; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games.

American League

Royals @ Tigers
Hammel is 2-2, 4.95 in his last six starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. He is 0-0, 4.41 in three starts vs Detroit this year. Royals are 4-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-12-6

Boyd is 0-3, 9.00 in his last five starts; over is 6-3-2 in his last 11. He is 1-0, 6.52 in two starts vs KC this season. Detroit is 2-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-10-5

Royals lost nine of last 12 games; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. Detroit lost six of last eight games; under is 8-4 in his last 12 games.

New York @ Baltimore
Gray is 2-4, 3.89 in six starts for NY (under 5-1). New York is 0-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-4

Gausman is 1-0, 0.00 (13.2 IP) in his last two starts; under is 7-1 in his last eight starts. He is 1-1, 8.84 in four starts vs NY this season. Orioles are 9-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-14-1

New York won four of last six games; over is 7-2 in their last nine road games. Baltimore won 10 of last 13 games; three of their last five games stayed under.

Indians @ White Sox
Carrasco is 3-1, 2.14 in his last five starts; over is 7-2 in his last nine. He is 2-0, 1.33 in three starts vs Chicago this season. Indians are 10-5in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 18-7-2

Lopez is 1-2, 6.06 in three starts this year (under 2-1). Chicago split his two home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-2

Indians won their last 13 games; over is 6-4 in his last ten road games. White Sox lost six of last eight games; under is 9-2 in their last 11 home games.

Angels @ A’s
Skaggs is 0-3, 6.83 in his last six starts (under 6-4-1). He is 0-2, 7.71 vs Oakland this year. Angels are 3-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-7-2

Manaea is 1-3, 7.00 in his last four starts; over is 8-2 in his last ten. He is 0-1, 10.32 in three starts against the Angels this year. Oakland is 6-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-11-4

Angels are 7-3 in their last ten games; over is 11-2 in their last 13 games. Oakland lost its last eight games; over is 8-2 in their last ten home games.

Astros @ Mariners
McCullers is making his first start since July 30; he is 0-2, 9.38 in his last five starts. He is 2-0, 5.74 in three starts vs Seattle this year. Astros are 6-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-8-3

Moore is 1-3, 5.65 in six starts this year; under is 4-1 in his last five. Seattle lost his last four home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-3-2

Astros won their last six games; under is 3-1 in their last four games. Seattle won five of its last seven home games; over is 5-4 in their last nine games.

Blue Jays @ Red Sox
Biagini is 0-3, 6.33 in his last four starts (under 9-4). Toronto split his six road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-7-1

Fister is 2-1, 1.57 in his last three starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six starts. He is 0-1, 8.68 in two starts against the Blue Jays this season. Boston is 2-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-6

Blue Jays lost seven of last ten games; under is 6-2 in their last eight games. Boston lost four of last six games; under is 6-2 in their last eight games. These teams play 19 innings last night.

Twins @ Rays
Slegers allowed two runs in 6.1 IP (82 PT) in his first start, against Cleveland. Twins’ first 5-inning record with him: 1-0

Snell is 3-0, 2.36 in is last four starts; under is 9-3 in his last 12 starts. Rays are 3-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-8-2

Twins lost four of last five games; under is 6-2 in their last eight road games. Tampa Bay is 8-4 in its last 12 games; under is 5-3-1 in his last nine games.

Interleague

Rangers @ Braves
Gonzalez makes his Texas debut here; he was 2-0, 1.85 in his last five starts (under 5-0) for the White Sox.

Hamels is 6.61 in his last three starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Texas is 2-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-1-2

Teheran is 2-0, 1.93 in his last two starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Atlanta is 4-9 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-10-5

21-year old Gohara started the season in A ball, is now making his MLB debut; he was 2-2, 3.31 in seven AAA starts this season.

Rangers won five of last seven games; over is 7-1-1 in their last nine games. Atlanta lost seven of last ten games; under is 6-3 in their last nine games.

Record with this pitcher starting

Phil-NY: Pivetta 7-14; Gsellman 7-10 Milone 1-4
Mil-Cin: Garza 9-12; Castillo 6-8
SF-Colo: Cueto 10-10; Freeland 15-10
Chi-Pitt: Quintana 5-4 (10-8 ); Cole 16-12
StL-SD: Flaherty 1-0; Lamet 9-8
Wash-Mia: Gonzalez 16-11; Peters 0-1
Az-LA: Walker 13-10; Maeda 15-7

American League
KC-Det: Hammel 9-18; Boyd 8-12
NY-Balt: Gray 2-4 (8-8 ); Gausman 15-14
Clev-Chi: Carrasco 19-8; Lopez 1-2
LA-A’s: Skaggs 5-6; Manaea 11-14
Hst-Sea: McCullers 12-7; Moore 2-4
Tor-Bos: Biagini 4-9; Fister 5-5
Minn-TB: Slegers 1-0; Snell 8-10

Interleague
Tex-Atl: Gonzalez 0-0 (9-13) Hamels ; Teheran 12-15 Gohara 0-0

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Phil-NY: Pivetta 9-21; Gsellman 9-17 Milone 2-5
Mil-Cin: Garza 6-21; Castillo 2-14
SF-Colo: Cueto 6-20; Freeland 7-25
Chi-Pitt: Quintana 8-27; Cole 10-28
StL-SD: Flaherty 0-1; Lamet 5-17
Wash-Mia: Gonzalez 9-27; Peters 0-1
Az-LA: Walker 6-23; Maeda 8-22

American League
KC-Det: Hammel 5-27; Boyd 7-20
NY-Balt: Gray 3-22; Gausman 8-29
Clev-Chi: Carrasco 5-27; Lopez 1-3
LA-A’s: Skaggs 7-11; Manaea 9-25
Hst-Sea: McCullers 4-19; Moore 1-6
Tor-Bos: Biagini 5-13; Fister 5-10
Minn-TB: Slegers 0-1; Snell 4-18

Interleague
Tex-Atl: Gonzalez 0-0 (9-13) Hamels ; Teheran 12-15 Gohara 0-0

Umpires

National League
Phil-NY: Under is 6-3 in last nine DeJesus games.
Mil-Cin: Over is 4-1-2 in last seven Winters games.
SF-Colo: Underdogs are 7-6 in last 13 Porter games.
Chi-Pitt: Favorites are 13-1 in last 14 Nauert games.
StL-SD: Under is 3-0-1 in last four Additon games.
Wash-Mia: Underdogs are 11-7 in last 18 Lentz games.
Az-LA: Under is 12-5-2 in last 19 Fairchild games.

American League
KC-Det: Three of last four Diaz games stayed under.
NY-Balt: Over is 7-4 in Barber games this season.
Clev-Chi: Over is 16-4-2 in last 22 Gonzalez games.
LA-A’s: Underdogs won last four Everitt games.
Hst-Sea: Over is 11-4 in last 15 Wegner games.
Tor-Bos: Home teams won all five Livensparger games this year.
Minn-TB: Under is 6-3 in last nine Johnson games.

Interleague
Tex-Atl: Under is 6-1 in last seven Torres games. Last three Blakney games stayed under.

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 79-55 AL, favorites +$403
AL @ NL– 71-66 NL, favorites +$50
Total: 145-126 AL, favorites +$453

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 67-66-3
AL @ NL: Over 72-59-7
Total: Over 139-125-10

Armadillosports.com

MLB Betting Picks & Tips
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Texas at Atlanta (-110); Total: 9

The Rangers and Braves will play a doubleheader today after yesterday’s game was postponed. At this point in the season, nobody wants to play doubleheaders, so we’ll have to follow along with the day and see what the lineups look like. Game 1 is the one that we will preview since we know the pitching matchup.

After writing yesterday, it was announced that Luiz Gohara would make the start for the Braves in place of Julio Teheran. The 21-year-old has pitched at three stops this season. He made seven terrific starts in High-A with a 1.98/1.99/2.52 in 36.1 innings. He struck out 39 and walked 10. He didn’t allow a home run. In 11 starts and one relief appearance in Double-A, he worked 52 innings with 60 strikeouts against 18 walks with a 2.60/2.52/2.87 pitcher slash. He allowed two home runs. In seven starts at Triple-A, Gohara posted a 3.31/3.54/3.11 pitcher slash with 48 K against 16 BB. Basically, this kid has tremendous stuff and showcased it at three different levels at the age of 21. There’s a lot to love about his upside and potential. The left-hander already has a Major League ready arsenal with a good fastball, a solid slider, and a developing changeup. There’s a lot of hype surrounding this kid and with good reason.

That should keep the Braves invested, at least in the first game. I’ll repost what I wrote about Miguel Gonzalez in yesterday’s article here, since nothing has changed with him. This will be Gonzalez’s first start with the Rangers. He’s been with the White Sox since the start of 2016. Gonzalez had a 4.31 ERA with a 4.56 FIP and a 5.56 xFIP in his 22 starts with the Pale Hose. He had a career year in 2016, but wasn’t able to repeat it this season and the Rangers were looking for a warm body to work some innings late in the year. Guys like Gonzalez always find work, but he’ll have to look good in September to get a decent offer.

His strikeout rate is down, his walk rate is up, and his command is down with a spike in BABIP and home runs. Gonzalez still has just an 8.4 percent HR/FB%, so he has been able to keep the ball in the park, which has been a big help.

The Braves should be the right side here. Manager Brian Snitker will load the lineup in a way that should benefit Gohara’s attempt to get his first MLB win. Atlanta will worry about the nightcap after that.

Los Angeles (-125) at Oakland; Total: 9.5

Sean Manaea has taken on a bit of steam after a disheartening loss for the Oakland A’s last night. The A’s left the bases loaded in the 10th inning and the Angels moved into the second wild card spot as a result. Today, Anaheim sends Tyler Skaggs to the bump.

Skaggs will be making his 12th start of the season. After missing all of 2015 and half of 2016 with Tommy John surgery and the subsequent rehab, he has had some difficulty working back into a regular rhythm at the MLB level. He’s got decent peripherals, but has a 4.89 ERA with a 4.48 FIP and a 4.52 xFIP. Skaggs has a 51/22 K/BB ratio in his 57 innings of work, but the eight home runs that he has allowed really stand out and his command across the board has been a bit poor.

Sean Manaea is a guy that I really like and have for a while. This season hasn’t gone as well for him as last year did. His 4.52 ERA with a 4.20 FIP and a 4.53 xFIP isn’t quite the leap I expected him to make. Manaea’s strikeout rate has been declining recently and his walk rate is up from last season. His 69.3 percent LOB% is a key component of the 4.52 ERA, but, as you can see from his xFIP, he’s right around expectations. Since August 1, Manaea has just a 10/9 K/BB ratio in his 24.1 innings of work. I’m very, very concerned about that. He’s had a lot of injuries throughout his career and I wonder if there’s something going on or if he has gotten fatigued.

The Angels made some significant strides against lefties with the trades for Justin Upton and Brandon Phillips. This isn’t a great spot for Manaea since the stuff clearly seems to be in decline for this year. Factor in last night’s heartbreaker for Oakland and I’ll be on the road team.

Chicago (-135) at Pittsburgh; Total: 8

It’s been a while since we’ve discussed the Cubs in this piece. They’re having some issues of their own right now as they can’t put much distance between themselves and the Brewers. Jose Quintana takes the ball tonight at PNC Park against Gerrit Cole and the Pirates.

In nine starts for the Cubs, Quintana hasn’t quite pitched to expectations. He’s missed a lot more bats than he did with the White Sox and he has seen a slight downtick in walks with the pitcher hitting, but he still has a 4.50 ERA with a 4.02 FIP and a 3.54 xFIP. Quintana’s FIP was actually lower in his 18 starts with the White Sox. Home runs continue to be a problem for the left-hander. He allowed 22 in 208 innings last season. He has allowed 22 in 156.1 innings this season and eight in 52 innings with the Cubs. He hasn’t been the standout that people were expecting after his dominant first start with the Cubs.

Gerrit Cole has also regressed this season. Cole has a 4.11 ERA with a 4.13 FIP and a 3.87 xFIP in his 173 innings of work. One nice thing about Cole is that the right-hander will, barring injury, work at least 180 innings this season and could get close to 200 depending on how deep he works into games the rest of the way. After being limited to 116 innings last season, that is a great thing. Cole could also be a trade candidate this winter as the Pirates consider retooling things a bit.

Cole still seems to have some life on his arsenal. He’s had some sequencing issues lately, but he’s still getting strikeouts. His command has been come-and-go this season, which is why I’d be wary of backing the big price against the Cubs. He has been a bit better at home with a .418 SLG against at PNC Park and a .458 SLG against on the road, so, like most Pirates pitchers, you have to evaluate him differently in one of the few parks that has played well for pitchers. Still, I trust Quintana a bit more, especially if home runs are his primary issue. PNC Park isn’t made for power.

New York at Baltimore (-105); Total: 9

Sonny Gray has been solid in his six starts for the Yankees. He’ll make the seventh one in a fairly big spot today as the Yankees look to recover from yesterday’s tough loss to the Orioles. Baltimore will counter with Kevin Gausman. Gray has a 3.16 ERA with a 4.29 FIP and a 4.38 xFIP in his time with the Yankees. He has certainly enjoyed leaving the A’s because his BABIP is down 53 points since he got away from one of the worst defensive teams in baseball. Gray is allowing a few too many home runs, but what is really interesting is how his batted ball distribution has changed. He’s gone from a 56.7 percent ground ball rate in Oakland, where fly balls aren’t a detriment, to a 45.6 percent ground ball rate with the Yankees, where fly balls are problematic. It makes me wonder about the sustainability of that 3.16 ERA and if his numbers will gravitate towards his FIP and xFIP.

The bare numbers for Kevin Gausman aren’t great with a 4.79 ERA, a 4.67 FIP, and a 4.47 xFIP, but he has a 2.03 ERA with a 3.90 FIP and a 3.74 xFIP since July 19. He’s made nine starts covering 57.2 innings of work and has a 60/20 K/BB ratio. Obviously we can point to some negative regression because Gausman has stranded 96.8 percent of his runners in that stretch.

The over is a consideration for me in this one. Gausman has regression coming and it looks to me like Gray does as well. At least the first five over so we can take the bullpens out of it.

Washington (-120) at Miami; Total: 9

You know what I’m going to say here. I’m looking to fade Gio Gonzalez. He has a 2.58 ERA with a 3.89 FIP, and a 4.25 xFIP. He has an 84.5 percent LOB% and a .249 BABIP against. Both are career-bests by a large margin. He gave up five runs on eight hits last time out. I’d expect more of the same here tonight. Last time he was in Miami, he nearly threw a no-hitter. Today, I expect far different results.

If you want to back Dillon Peters and the Marlins at +110, feel free. If you want to take the Marlins team total over, feel free. I’ve been looking for this regression to hit and the last start gives me hope that it will finally start happening.

St. Louis (-115) at San Diego; Total: 8

Jack Flaherty and Dinelson Lamet get together for what I find to be today’s most interesting pitching matchup. Flaherty’s MLB debut wasn’t great. He worked four innings and gave up five runs on eight hits. He did strike out six, though, so he showed some of that upside. He had a 147/35 K/BB ratio across 148.2 innings of work between Double-A and Triple-A this season, so there’s some swing and miss in the arsenal. He’s facing a team that swings and misses a ton in the Padres today.

Dinelson Lamet has a lot of swing and miss, too, as we know. Lamet has a 4.40 ERA with a 4.00 FIP and a 4.10 xFIP. He’s struck out 115 in 92 innings of work. He’s allowed 13 home runs, but, as I keep discussing, most of those came earlier this season. Lamet has made 17 starts and allowed eight of his home runs over his first five starts. He’s allowed just five home runs over his last 12 starts and he keeps racking up strikeouts. His control is back to being a work in progress, with 12 walks in his last 16.2 innings, but he also has 23 strikeouts. The Cardinals haven’t seen him yet, which should be good for him.

I like both of these guys. I’d look to play the under. I also think the wrong team is favored in this spot. The Padres clearly aren’t good, but Lamet has 17 starts of data and Flaherty has one. I think we can reasonably assume what we’re going to get from Lamet, who hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start since July 18. I’m happily scooping up that plus money price on the Padres at home.

Wednesday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Indians (13-0 last 13) at White Sox

The last time Cleveland lost a game, it came on August 23 at home to Boston. Since that defeat, the Indians have run off 13 straight wins, including sweeps over the Royals, Yankees, and Tigers. Cleveland is halfway to another sweep after capturing the first two games at Chicago, capped off by a 9-4 triumph over the White Sox on Tuesday. The Tribe extended its streak to 12 consecutive contests in which their pitching staff has allowed four runs or fewer, while picking up its fifth straight win on the run-line.

Cleveland will be another heavy favorite on Wednesday as Carlos Carrasco heads to the mound. Carrasco has struck out eight batters in each of his past two starts, while going seven innings each time. The Indians are 3-0 in Carrasco’s last three road appearances, while Cleveland owns a perfect 3-0 record in his three starts against Chicago this season.

Coldest team: Marlins (1-8 last nine) vs. Nationals

Miami’s playoff hopes are diminishing by the day as the Marlins have slipped to 67-71 following a 2-1 defeat to the Nationals on Tuesday. The offense has sunk recently by scoring two runs or fewer in seven of the past nine contests, while posting an 0-5 record in this span against Washington. Prior to this skid, Miami compiled a 66-63 record, while sitting 4 ½ games behind Colorado for the second Wild Card spot. Now, the Marlins are seven games behind the Rockies with 24 games remaining in the season.

The Fish look to avoid the sweep as left-hander Dillon Peters takes the hill in the series finale. Although Peters picked up a no-decision in his debut against the Phillies, he tossed seven scoreless innings and scattered three hits in a 2-1 defeat.

Hottest pitcher: Kevin Gausman, Orioles (10-9, 4.79 ERA)

For the second time this season, Gausman has posted consecutive scoreless outings, as the Orioles blanked the Red Sox and Blue Jays in his past two starts. Gausman tossed six innings in a 1-0 win in 13 innings against Toronto his last time out, as Baltimore improved to 3-5 in his past eight starts at Camden Yards. The Orioles have won each of Gausman’s two home outings against the Yankees this season, including a 10-4 victory on May 31.

Coldest pitcher: Dinelson Lamet, Padres (7-6, 4.40 ERA)

Lamet has actually pitched recently, although he resides in this category due to San Diego’s 1-4 record in his past five starts. The right-hander is coming off a 10-strikeout performance opposite Clayton Kershaw in a 1-0 defeat to the Dodgers, while allowing one earned run in his second straight outing. The Padres have plated only two runs in his previous three starts, while going winless in Lamet’s past two outings at Petco Park.

Biggest OVER run: Mets (9-2 last 11)

Although New York scored only one run on Tuesday in a blowout loss to Philadelphia, the Mets cashed their third straight OVER. During this stretch, the results have been mixed as the offense has plated six runs or more four times, but the pitching staff has allowed seven runs or more in five of the past six contests.

Biggest UNDER run: Pirates (7-3 last 10)

Even though Pittsburgh isn’t headed to the postseason, its pitching has stepped up of late by allowing four runs during its current four-game winning streak. Following a 12-0 shutout of the Cubs on Monday, the Pirates edged the defending champions on Tuesday, 4-3 to record its fifth UNDER in the last seven games at PNC Park. Ace Gerrit Cole will look to keep Pittsburgh’s sharp pitching going in Game 3 of this series as the right-hander has hit the OVER in four of his past five starts. Cole has performed well against the Cubs this season by allowing three runs in 13 innings of work, while finishing UNDER the total in two starts.

Matchup to watch: Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers

Behind Cleveland’s 13-game hot streak is Arizona’s 12-game winning streak after the D-backs knocked off the Dodgers in extra innings on Tuesday, 3-1. Arizona is closing in on hosting the Wild Card game in early October following this tremendous run, but it will not be enough to catch Los Angeles. The D-backs trail the Dodgers by 11½ games in the NL West, even though Arizona has trimmed off nine games over the last 10 days.

The Dodgers are melting down at the wrong time by losing nine of their past 10 games, as Kenta Maeda heads to the mound. Maeda was racked by Arizona the last time he faced them on August 31, allowing seven earned runs in three innings of an 8-1 defeat. However, Maeda is a different pitcher at Chavez Ravine by owning an 8-1 record at home, while Los Angeles is 9-0 in his past nine starts at Dodger Stadium.

Taijuan Walker looks to keep this streak going for Arizona, coming off a 10-strikeout performance in a 9-5 victory at Colorado in his previous outing. The D-backs are 3-0 in Walker’s last three starts, while Arizona has beaten Los Angeles twice as an underdog this season when the right-hander takes the hill. The Snakes have won four of their past six road series finales, while running off nine straight wins in the underdog role.

Betcha didn’t know: The Blue Jays couldn’t hold onto a 2-0 ninth inning lead over the Red Sox on Tuesday as Toronto basically needed to play an extra game – and lost. Boston rallied for two ninth inning runs and eventually beat Toronto, 3-2 in 19 innings as the Sox used 12 pitchers. Toronto hasn’t fared well in the final game of an away series recently by going 2-6 in the last eight opportunities.

Biggest public favorite: Indians (-280) at White Sox

Biggest public underdog: Padres (+100) vs. Cardinals

Biggest line move: Dodgers (-155 to -170) vs. Diamondbacks

Yankees, Orioles clash
By: StatFox.com

The Orioles will be hoping to keep their playoff hopes alive with a Wednesday victory over a Yankees team that is still trying to get to the top of the AL East standings.

New York had been extremely hot heading into Tuesday night’s meeting with Baltimore, as the Yankees had won four of five heading into that one and three of those victories were against the rival Red Sox. The Yankees also jumped out to an early 6-1 lead against the Orioles on Tuesday and they also had a 6-5 lead heading into the bottom of the ninth inning. New York could not, however, hold onto that lead and ended up allowing a walk-off homer to 3B Manny Machado. There were two outs when Machado got up to bat, so the Yankees will definitely be kicking themselves over losing that one. As for the Orioles, the team had lost three of five before beating the Yankees on Tuesday. It was a huge win for this Baltimore team, as the Orioles have their hearts set on earning the second spot in the AL wild card race. The starters in this Wednesday night matchup are going to be RHP Sonny Gray (8-9, 3.36 ERA, 129 K) for New York and RHP Kevin Gausman (10-9, 4.79 ERA, 148 K) for Baltimore. One thing that stands out when looking at this one is the fact that Gray’s teams are a miserable 1-11 against the money line when playing against division opponents over the past two seasons. That will need to change rather shortly if New York is going to keep climbing the standings. Also, the Yankees will be without C Gary Sanchez (Suspension) for another two games.

Sonny Gray will be on the hill for the Yankees on Wednesday and the team needs him to be at his absolute best in this one. New York blew a huge lead against Baltimore on Tuesday night and can’t afford to let that start a downward spiral. It is too late in the year for the Yankees to struggle now, especially considering the Red Sox came away with a win in extra innings on Tuesday. Gray was not very good in his last trip to the mound, when he gave up four earned runs in seven innings of work against Boston. The Yankees need more from him here or this game could get away from them. Gray just needs to make sure he keeps the ball down in this one, as the Orioles have as many power hitters as anybody. On offense, the Yankees will likely send OF Jacoby Ellsbury out there on Wednesday. Ellsbury has gotten himself on a roll lately, as he has seen his average rise from .241 to .259 over the past 10 games. He had two RBI against Baltimore on Tuesday and it’d be huge if he came through again here.

The Orioles are coming off of a huge victory over the Yankees and they’ll definitely be brimming with confidence on Wednesday. A walk-off victory like that one can always be the start of a nice winning streak, but Baltimore will need a solid performance from Gausman here. The righty has been stellar for the Orioles as of late, as he has allowed no earned runs in his past 13.2 innings on the mound. Gausman has, however, been absolutely miserable against the Yankees this season. He allowed seven earned runs in only 3.1 innings of work against them on Jun. 11 and allowed a total of 11 earned runs in 16 innings of work over his other three starts against New York. If he can’t turn things around then there is no chance the Orioles win this game. As for Baltimore’s offense, the team will be hoping that 3B Manny Machado can build on what he did on Tuesday. Machado’s walk-off blast was his second homer of the game and it ended a six-game homerless streak for him. Perhaps he’ll get his power stroke going again moving forward.

MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com

Double-Play Picks

Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics (+115, 9.5)

The Angels and Athletics wrap up a three-game set Wednesday afternoon in Oakland as Los Angeles looks to complete the sweep and keep a hold of the second American League Wild Card spot.

The Angels and their new look lineup are currently a half-game ahead of the Twins for the second Wild Card spot in the AL, after exploding for 19 runs in taking the first two games of the series. The Angels’ revamped lineup will look to stay hot when they face the A’s Sean Manea.

The rookie left-hander has struggled more and more as the season has rolled on. In the first half Manea was 7-5 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, but is just 2-4 with a 6.14 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP in the second half. Plus his strikeout rate is way down, from 9.0 per nine innings in the first half to just 5.5 per nine innings in the second half.

The Angels counter with a southpaw of their own in Tyler Skaggs. Skaggs is 1-4 with a 4.89 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in 11 starts this season, but he has been just terrible in his last three starts going 0-1 with a 9.49 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP.

He faces an Oakland lineup that, while inconsistent, has a penchant of hitting the long ball at home. They rank fourth in the majors in home runs when playing at home this season. Plus, the wind is blowing out to center field today.

Pick: Over 9.5

Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers (+120, 9.5)

The rubber match of the three-game series between the Royals and Tigers goes this evening in Detroit. The Royals took the opener 7-6 on Monday night before the Tigers responded with a 13-2 spanking yesterday.

We were on the Royals yesterday, but that pick was doomed right for the start when our favorite fade, Anibal Sanchez, was removed from the game after throwing only five pitches. I'm sure they don't wish injury upon any of their teammates, but must have been inspiring for the Tigers' players seeing Sanchez walk off the mound.

Wednesday is a new day. The Tigers are still bad at baseball, and they are sending one of their worst starting pitchers to the mound for this evening's start.

Matt Boyd is 5-8 on the season with a very chubby ERA of 5.92. The Tigers have lost his last five starts and over his last six appearances (one in relief) he has an ERA of 7.77 to go along with a WHIP of 1.8904.

Jason Hammel will get the ball for the Royals and, despite a rough first season in Kansas City, he has shown signs of consistency over the last month or so. The Royals have won two of his last three starts and Hammel has pitched very well in his last two outings against the Tigers (both Royals' wins) with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 0.917.

The Tigers have not won back-to-back games in over a month (Aug 4) and they certainly aren't going to start any kind of streak today.

Pick: Royals -130

Yesterday's Picks: 0-2
Season To Date: 134-126-13

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Doug Fister, Boston Red Sox

Yeah, we know, we can’t believe it either. Fister came in to be a replacement starter for the Red Sox, but with all the inconsistencies in the rotation he’s been a welcome addition.

Fister has produced a quality starts in five of his last six outings and his last three starts have been superb, going 2-1 with a 1.57 ERA and a miniscule 0.65 WHIP. Fister and the Red Sox are currently big -175 home favorites tonight against the Blue Jays.

Slumping: Andrew Moore, Seattle Mariners

It’s hasn’t been the smoothest transition to the Major Leagues for Moore, as the Mariners’ rookie gets another chance to help his team stay in the AL playoff hunt.
Moore has pitched to a big 8.04 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in his last three starts and the Mariners have lost four of his last five starts. Moore and the Mariners are +126 home dogs today against the Astros.

Wednesday's Top Trends

* Under is 22-5-1 in Brewers last 28 road games. O/U: 9.5 @ Reds.
* Over is 15-2 in the last 17 meetings between the Yankees and Orioles. O/U: 9.
* Nationals are 7-0 in the last seven meetings vs. Marlins. -132 @ Marlins.
* Diamondbacks are 11-0 in their last 11 vs. National League West. +150 @ Dodgers.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

There is plenty of wet weather in the MLB forecast for Wednesday.

It looks like rain for most of the day in Baltimore where the Orioles will entertain the New York Yankees. There is a high likelihood that this one gets washed out.

There is a chance of thunderstorms all evening in Boston where the Jays are on town for a 7:10 PM ET first pitch at Fenway Park. The POP is about 45 percent early in the game and increasing to 70-80 percent later on in the evening.

There is a 50 percent chance of rain early in the evening in Detroit where the Royals will take on the Tigers. This could be a delay situation as the forecast looks clear later in the evening.

And finally, the wet weather report continues with thunderstorms and rain in the forecast for Citi Field where the Mets are scheduled to battle the Phillies. This one has about an 80 percent chance of rain all evening.