Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 7/23/20
MLB
Dunkel
Thursday, July 23
NY Yankees @ Washington
Game 901-902
July 23, 2020 @ 7:08 pm
Dunkel Rating:
NY Yankees
(Cole) 16.246
Washington
(Scherzer) 19.286
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 3
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Yankees
-135
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+115); Under
San Francisco @ LA Dodgers
Game 903-904
July 23, 2020 @ 10:08 pm
Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
(Cueto) 13.889
LA Dodgers
(Kershaw) 17.828
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 4
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-290
8
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-290); Over
MLB
Long Sheet
Thursday, July 23
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NY YANKEES (0 - 0) at WASHINGTON (0 - 0) - 7:08 PM
GERRIT COLE (R) vs. MAX SCHERZER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
COLE is 30-9 (+17.0 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997. (Team's Record)
SCHERZER is 15-22 (-24.5 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 or less since 1997. (Team's Record)
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
GERRIT COLE vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
COLE is 4-3 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 3.18 and a WHIP of 1.078.
His team's record is 5-3 (+1.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-6. (-4.7 units)
MAX SCHERZER vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
SCHERZER is 6-3 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 3.33 and a WHIP of 1.352.
His team's record is 6-3 (+4.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-6. (-3.6 units)
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SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 0) at LA DODGERS (0 - 0) - 10:08 PM
JOHNNY CUETO (R) vs. CLAYTON KERSHAW (L)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 42-39 (+19.8 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 16-10 (+13.5 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 19-6 (+18.1 Units) against the money line in July games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 23-16 (+17.2 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 52-48 (+14.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 986-837 (-94.0 Units) against the money line in night games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
JOHNNY CUETO vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
CUETO is 7-9 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 3.54 and a WHIP of 1.137.
His team's record is 9-11 (-0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 10-10. (+0.0 units)
CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
KERSHAW is 23-12 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 1.72 and a WHIP of 0.864.
His team's record is 29-18 (-2.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 30-14. (+14.4 units)
MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Thursday, July 23
Not a lot to go on for the first few days; this is uncharted territory for all of us. We’ll have trends up and running after a few days.
Bronx @ Washington
Bronx (0-0):
Cole makes his debut for New York; he is 3-2, 2.92 in six starts vs Washington, 1-2, 4.41 in three starts here. Cole was 1-1, 3.86 in the World Series vs Washington LY.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: o-0
— Unsure if DJ LeMahieu (COVID) will be in the lineup.
Nationals (0-0):
Scherzer is 4-3, 4.04 in seven career starts vs New York.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: 0-0
—
Giants @ Dodgers
Giants (0-0)
Cueto is 7-9, 3.53 in 20 starts vs LA, 4-5, 2.36 in ten starts in Chavez Ravine.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: 0-0
— Belt, Longoria are both out for the Giants.
Dodgers (0-0):
Kershaw is 23-12, 1.74 in 47 starts against the Giants (1-2, 2.37 LY)
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: 0-0
2020 MLB rule changes and their impact on baseball betting
Andrew Caley
The Yankees' Gleyber Torres slashed .394/.467/1.045, with 13 homers in 75 plate appearances against the Orioles last season. They make up almost 17 percent of the Yankees’ games now.
Major League Baseball returns with an abbreviated 60-game 2020 season and a handful of new rules, and these changes will certainly impact MLB odds.
For bettors, these new MLB rule changes will affect everything from daily MLB betting lines to World Series odds for the season, beginning July 23.
So, with a bunch of uncertainty staring us in the face, we break down some stuff to focus on in this new world of MLB betting, as we prepare to dive head-first into MLB picks and predictions for the upcoming season.
What are the 2020 MLB rule changes?
Teams will play 40 division games, and 20 interleague games against the corresponding division (Ex: AL East will play NL East).
The National League will use a designated hitter.
Pitchers must face three batters or complete a half-inning before being removed from the game.
If a game goes to extra innings, teams will begin with a runner on second base.
Rosters will start at 30 for the first two weeks, then 28 for the next two and 26 for the remainder.
Teams will also have a taxi squad which will allow for up to 60 players to be available for MLB games.
How will the rule change affect the MLB odds?
Prepare for randomness with MLB Futures betting
Sixty games are nothing close to resembling a full MLB season. Sometimes it takes 60 games for hitters to get their timing down. Or a couple of months for starting pitchers to find their grooves. With a schedule this short, all it will take is one major injury or one cold streak to derail a season. For example, the World Series champion Washington Nationals were just 27-33 after 60 games last year.
Conversely, one hot start means we could wind up with an unexpected team in the postseason. The point is to use caution when betting things like World Series or division title futures, and regular-season win totals. That said, maybe give a little added value to a dark horse team you like to win a division or a live longshot for a player to lead the league in home runs. The Yankees' Gleyber Torres slashed .394/.467/1.045, with 13 homers in 75 plate appearances against the Baltimore Orioles last season. They make up almost 17 percent of the Yankees’ games now.
A Boon in NL runs?
It has been long-debated whether the National League should adopt the designated hitter, and the day is finally here. The junior circuit has generally been the higher scoring league, because, duh, they don’t have a pitcher hit. So, you can expect a small uptick in runs in the NL.
More importantly, this is going to give some roster flexibility to some teams. For example, the Chicago Cubs no longer have to worry about Kyle Schwarber having to patrol an outfield position. Additionally, it means teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers and Cincinnati Reds, with a ton of depth, become even more dangerous. It will be interesting to see how books evaluate these teams early on.
Bullpen Management
Two things with bullpens here. One, in this abbreviated season, teams with bullpen depth should have an edge. And two, with the three-batter minimum rule in effect, managers will have to be more careful when deciding which reliever to call for each situation.
First off, just like hitters, it usually takes starters a little while to get a feel for all their pitches. So, in this 60-game sprint, there is going to be a premium on teams with good bullpens. The top five MLB teams in terms of ERA last season were:
Tampa Bay Rays
Houston Astros
Cleveland Indians
San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers
Other teams who should have excellent bullpens heading into 2020 are the Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres and New York Yankees. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Rays and Brewers only use starters for half their games.
And secondly, the bullpen management. Sorry Joe Girardi, the one-and-done specialist is gone. Girardi was notorious in New York for his many pitching changes, but managers will have to look much more closely at matchups now. And relievers who get thrown into jams will have to get out of them on their own. Which again, can lead to more runs being scored. Girardi is now in Philly but he’s not alone. Guys like the Rays' Kevin Cash, Joe Maddon - now with the Angels - and the Dodgers' Dave Roberts all love tinkering with their relievers (some to better ends than the others).
A Return to Small Ball
The extra-inning tweak is going to change games that need them quite a bit, and you are going to see far fewer walk-off homers. Bunting has kind of gone the way of the dodo in baseball, but you’ll see a return in 2020. The smart baseball play is to advance that runner on second to third with a bunt. Then all you need is a ball in play. You will see lots of run-on-contact plays, and tagging up on sacrifice flys. Imagine if you’re a team like the Atlanta Braves, and will have a guy like Billy Hamilton on the bench most games. He comes in to pinch run, steals third, and the chances of scoring that run are very high. So keep an eye on teams with speedsters coming off the bench.
So what does it all mean for MLB betting?
To wrap it up, teams with strong bullpens and good bullpen management should have an advantage in daily moneyline wagers early on. But once the players get warmed up, teams with strong starting rotations should excel. Try to find some early-season value in National League totals. And use caution when wagering futures, while maybe taking a look at some live long shots who have a little more value in the shorted season.