This Week's MLB Daily Fantasy Must-Start Pitchers
Covers.com
Here are the top daily fantasy pitching options for the coming week.
Tuesday - LHP Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers (vs. Diamondbacks)
He's baaaack! After an uncharacteristically bad outing against the New York Mets on June 19, Kershaw has rebounded with vigor, allowing zero earned runs over 13 innings in consecutive gems against the the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Angels. That stretch includes just seven hits against and 18 strikeouts, making it clear that Kershaw is back in Cy Young form. The Diamondbacks have already fallen victim to an eight-inning masterpiece from Kershaw this year; he's easily the top pitcher on this slate.
Wednesday - RHP Lance McCullers Jr., Astros (at Braves)
McCullers is so tantalizingly close to being one of the top starting pitchers in baseball - but he has had a lot of trouble going deep into games. The talented right-hander has failed to go past 5 1/3 innings in four of his past six starts, though he has managed to be a daily fantasy star even in limited action, striking out eight hitters in four of his previous five turns. The Braves have the third-worst team ISO in baseball coming into the week; if McCullers can go 6+ innings in this one, he could win you a tournament.
Thursday - LHP Chris Sale, Red Sox (at Rays)
Sale has wreaked havoc in his first season in Boston, leading the majors in strikeouts by a significant margin while limiting foes to a .197 batting average in his first 17 starts. The Rays know full well what the lanky left-hander is capable of, having whiffed 24 times over 14 innings in their first two meetings of the season. Sale will almost always be the most expensive player on his schedule, but if you don't roster him, you risk being left behind in both cash games and tournaments.
Friday - LHP Robbie Ray, Diamondbacks (vs. Reds)
Ray is the ultimate risk-reward pick - capable of racking up double-digit strikeouts on any given night, but also susceptible to both the walk and the long ball. Indeed, Ray has been tagged for five home runs over his previous three starts while surrendering at least four free passes in four straight outings. But that should suppress his salary heading into a favorable home matchup with Cincinnati - and if you want a big-time tournament option, you could do a lot worse than Ray.
Saturday - RHP Luis Severino, Yankees (vs. Brewers)
Severino hasn't been the most consistent starter in the majors, but he has produced the kind of strikeout totals that make him an intriguing daily fantasy option every time out. And while Milwaukee has the booming bats to make a sloppy pitcher pay, the Brewers are one of only four teams to come into the week with a team K rate above 25 percent. And with Severino having racked up at least seven strikeouts in seven of nine starts, you can bet he'll have a nice safe points floor in this one.
Sunday - LHP Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers (vs. Royals)
There's no harm in double-dipping this week, especially with Kershaw and his 2.04 career ERA at Dodger Stadium enjoying a pair of home starts. You don't need a rehashing of Kershaw's recent accolades, but what makes Kershaw particularly appealing at the end of the daily fantasy week is a matchup with a Royals lineup that has an 86 wRC+ entering the week, the fifth-worst mark in the majors entering Monday. Kershaw at home against Kansas City? Don't even consider taking another pitcher.
MLB DFS Lineup Tips July 4, 2017
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
Fourteen games are at our disposal for today’s DFS slate. The Mets and Nationals play at 11:05 a.m. ET for a Kegs N Eggs special, so that one is eliminated from consideration. There is a ton of day baseball with the July 4 holiday, so we’ll have to be quick with our decisions before heading to those cookouts and other special events.
The salaries listed are from DraftKings
Here are the top teams to stack for July 4:
Colorado – Homer Bailey at Coors Field seems like a true recipe for disaster today. The oft-injured right-hander has allowed 14 runs on 12 hits with five walks and four strikeouts in his return to the big leagues against Washington and Milwaukee. It’s Coors Field, so that doesn’t help for a guy that has virtually no command at this stage of the game. It’s a bad matchup and a bad park for Bailey. You have to add some Rockies today.
Oakland – James Shields has been better than last season, but it was hard to be worse. His FIP and xFIP are actually higher than last year, when he posted a 5.85 ERA. This season, Shields has a 3.98 ERA thanks to a .239 BABIP and an 86.4 percent LOB%. Shields has allowed 47 home runs over his last 213.1 innings of work. If there’s one thing we know about the A’s, it’s that they have a lot of guys that have bought into the launch angle renaissance in baseball.
Milwaukee – The Brewers have a very good matchup against right-handed punching bag Ubaldo Jimenez. Jimenez had an out-of-body experience with eight shutout last time out against Toronto, but he has a 6.48 ERA with a 5.75 FIP, and a 4.84 xFIP in 73.2 innings of work. He’s issued a lot of walks and has given up 16 HR. The Brewers are an inconsistent bunch, but there’s a lot of upside for this matchup.
Here are the top value hitters for July 4:
Luke Voit ($2,700) – The Cardinals are looking for an offensive spark and they may have found one in Luke Voit. Voit hit his first big league dinger yesterday and has a .400/.438/.800 slash through eight games. Voit hit .322/.406/.561 with Triple-A Memphis before his call-up. He faces what amounts to a Triple-A pitcher today in Jose Urena.
Adrian Beltre ($3,500) – Right-handed hitters have a .457 SLG against David Price in 144 plate appearances this season, as Price tries to find his command after coming back from an elbow injury. Adrian Beltre has a .266/.369/.477 slash line in his 30 games since he got off to a slow start with an injury. If Price is lacking command today, the Rangers could hang a number in the favorable hitting environment, with Beltre right in the middle of it.
Keon Broxton ($3,200) – Keon Broxton is lacking the average to be a huge asset in traditional leagues, but picking spot plays with him makes a lot of sense. He’s nearly a 15/15 player already and has contributed in a lot of categories. Ubaldo Jimenez is extremely easy to run on and extremely easy to hit, so it all lines up nicely for Broxton to have a big day at a low price.
Here are the top value pitchers for July 4:
Sean Newcomb ($6,700) – Sean Newcomb has a lot of extension as a six-foot-five left-hander and that has allowed him to induce a whole lot of weak contact in his 24.1 MLB innings across four starts. Newcomb also has 21 strikeouts, so he’s had some swing and miss in the arsenal. The Astros are a quality lineup, but that just keeps the price down for us today.
Jon Lester ($8,900) – Jon Lester is left-handed and the Rays have had some serious problems with southpaws throughout the season. Tampa Bay is 22nd in wOBA against lefties this season and they have neutralized a lot of the Rays’ power production. Lester has been the most consistent Cubs starter this year, with over a strikeout per inning and good numbers.
JA Happ ($7,600) – The Yankees have had one of the top offenses in baseball this season, but they are missing some pieces and parts right now as they try for one final push before the All-Star Break. JA Happ has struck out 51 in 51 innings of work and has been very reliable for the Blue Jays over the last couple of seasons. There’s a lot to like about his contact profile, even at Yankee Stadium, and he’s worth a gamble today at a reasonable price. Whatever you can do to roster Clayton Kershaw or Corey Kluber today, you want to try to do it.
MLB DFS Lineup Tips July 5, 2017
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
Here are the top teams to stack for July 5
Boston – During their current six-game winning streak, the Boston Red Sox have scored 53 runs. Don’t expect them to slow down on Wednesday night against Andrew Cashner with a very favorable park factor in Arlington. Cashner has a 3.87 ERA with a 4.47 FIP and a 5.39 xFIP on the season. He’s given up 15 runs over his last four starts, as the Regression Monster has finally made an appearance. Expect more of the same today.
Milwaukee – The inconsistency of the Brewers offense has been pretty maddening of late for DFS players, since there are so many promising hitters in the lineup, but there are some days where they just don’t look like the team that they should. Today, the Brewers draw left-hander Jayson Aquino. They’ve hit lefties better than righties most of the season and Aquino has allowed eight runs on 10 hits in eight innings, including three home runs.
Detroit – Comerica Park is starting to play like a semi-normal park as the weather gets warmer, but even with that taken under consideration, the Tigers are a great stacking option today against Ty Blach. Righties own a .302/.340/.510 slash line against the southpaw this season and Detroit’s right-handed-heavy lineup should be salivating to get a crack here in this one. All eight of Blach’s HR allowed have happened with a righty at the plate. Furthermore, he’s facing an AL lineup away from the safety net of AT&T Park. Small sample size alert, but Blach has allowed a .306/.345/.590 slash away from home.
Here are the top value hitters for July 5
Javier Baez ($3,200) – Javier Baez isn’t having the season that he or the Cubs envisioned, but he’s got a decent matchup on Wednesday against left-hander Blake Snell. Baez has 69 PA against LHP this season with a .270/.319/.540 slash and five of his 10 home runs. He should get in the lineup after a day off on Tuesday, which makes him well rested and ready to go with the platoon advantage.
Yonder Alonso ($3,900) – It seems like whatever issue was plaguing Yonder Alonso this past week is no longer a thing. Alonso cranked two dingers in yesterday’s win over the White Sox and he’ll have another favorable situation today against Mike Pelfrey. Alonso now has 19 jacks on the season with a .283/.377/.575 slash line. He’s batting .299/.398/.588 against righties on the season.
Brandon Nimmo ($2,900) – The true value of this pick will be when we see where Brandon Nimmo is hitting in the Mets lineup, but he’ll have a platoon advantage today against Tanner Roark, who has been a major disappointment this season. Nimmo wasn’t really hitting in the minor leagues this season, but he’s got a good track record in the minors and owns a .290 average and a .365 OBP in 104 MLB plate appearances. He’s a high-upside punt if you run out of money.
Here are the top value pitchers for July 5
Luis Perdomo ($5,000) – The Indians offense has the consistency of melted ice cream this season and that probably isn’t a good thing against Luis Perdomo. Perdomo has allowed a high rate of home runs per fly ball, but he has a 65.4 percent GB%. There’s going to be a lot of ground ball contact, which will require the Indians to string hits together. Perdomo has a little bit of strikeout upside with 65 in 78.1 innings of work, so he’s a viable stream to roster Alex Wood tonight.
Trevor Bauer ($7,300) – The Padres struck out 13 times in Tuesday’s game against Corey Kluber and Cody Allen. Trevor Bauer has plenty of strikeout upside in this start. He hasn’t had much luck or command, but hopefully the Padres offense is weak enough to help him out. Bauer has 96 strikeouts in 87.2 innings of work this season.
Sonny Gray ($9,000) – Sonny Gray hasn’t had much luck with a great K rate this season either, but a matchup against the lowly Chicago White Sox seems like a pretty good one for him. Gray has a 4.09 ERA with a 3.50 FIP and a 3.37 xFIP on the year. He’s struck out 69 in 72.2 innings of work, but a 62.8 percent LOB% has hurt his ERA. If that regresses, as it should, even with a bad Oakland defense, Gray will be in great shape the rest of the way.
MLB DFS Lineup Tips July 6, 2017
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
Here are the top teams to stack for July 6
Colorado – Sal Romano sounds like a character on Impractical Jokers, but I checked and double checked and he’s actually a Major League pitcher. The rookie, who has one appearance this season with three runs allowed on three hits in three innings with two long balls and four walks, will have to make this start at Coors Field. That’s never an enviable position for a pitcher and it could be a long day for the young right-hander.
Minnesota – The Regression Train picked up Dylan Bundy a few starts ago and has been parading him around the country. Bundy has allowed a home run in 11 straight starts and has upped the ante by allowing five over his last two outings. Through June 9, Bundy had a 3.05 ERA with a 4.36 FIP and a 5.02 xFIP. Over his last four starts, Bundy has a 7.97 ERA with a 7.33 FIP and a 5.48 xFIP. This is why we isolate pitchers due for regression and go against them. Even with this recent run, the underlying metrics see more coming.
San Diego – Stacking the Padres is a very rare event, but Josh Tomlin gives us the opportunity to take a cheap lineup and look for some good ROI. Tomlin has had no cutter command over the last several weeks and has a 6.17 ERA with a 4.72 FIP and a 4.33 xFIP. He’s given up eight home runs over his last four starts and has allowed at least four runs in five straight starts. San Diego doesn’t have much offensively, but power is one thing that they do have and that doesn’t bode well for Tomlin.
Here are the top value hitters for July 6
Hunter Renfroe ($3,700) – Hunter Renfroe fits the bill as one of those power bats with a favorable matchup against Tomlin. Renfroe has struck out a good amount this season and doesn’t walk much, but Tomlin doesn’t get strikeouts or walk anybody anyway. It’s the .451 SLG from Renfroe that we are interested in. He’s hit 16 home runs this season and could very well add another one to that number with today’s matchup.
Matt Joyce ($3,200) – The BABIP gods have not been in Matt Joyce’s corner this season. The platoon hitter has a .217 batting average because of a .233 BABIP against RHP, but he has a .335 OBP and a .429 SLG because he walks a lot and has hit all 11 of his home runs with a favorable matchup. He’ll have that today against right-hander Sam Gaviglio of the Mariners.
Jesus Aguilar ($3,600) – One team’s trash is another team’s treasure, apparently. Jesus Aguilar hit a ton for Cleveland’s Triple-A team, but appeared to be swinging a wet noodle at the MLB level. Well, Aguilar has a .277/.343/.523 slash for the Brewers this season. Today, he draws left-hander Mike Montgomery. Aguilar is slashing .340/.400/.566 against lefties in 60 plate appearances this season.
Here are the top value pitchers for July 6
Dinelson Lamet ($7,100) – Dinelson Lamet isn’t an ideal matchup against the Indians because he’s going to face a left-handed majority and the Indians don’t strike out a whole lot, but anybody with that kind of swing and miss upside at a reasonable price is worthy of consideration. Lamet has 50 strikeouts in 37 innings of work at the MLB level. It’s not like the Indians are scoring a lot of runs right now.
Tyler Chatwood ($6,900) – The pickings are slim today. Tyler Chatwood faces the Reds at Coors Field, which isn’t exactly ideal, but he should get a lot of run support. You never want to purposely speculate on wins, but when the cupboard is this bare, you look for anything that you can latch on to for possible points. Chatwood has induced a lot of weak contact this season with suboptimal results, so maybe today is one of those days when variance is on his side.
Rich Hill ($10,200) – It has been a rocky season for Rich Hill, with more injury issues early in the season and then a couple of big-time blow-ups once he got back. Over his last three starts, though, Hill has only allowed four runs on 12 hits with 26 strikeouts and six walks across 19 innings. The Diamondbacks rank in the bottom third of the league offensively against lefties, so this is a pretty decent matchup, though we are paying a pretty penny to take it.
MLB DFS Lineup Tips July 7, 2017
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
Here are the top teams to stack for July 7
New York Yankees – We’ll see if the Yankees are able to get a second wind to finish out the first half strong. Considering Friday night’s matchup, it seems doable. Junior Guerra gets the ball at Yankee Stadium and that should strike fear into the hearts of Brewers fans. Guerra has a 4.93 ERA with a 7.10 FIP and a 6.02 xFIP in 45.2 innings of work this season. He started the year and then suffered a calf injury. Guerra is being carried by a .258 BABIP and an 83.1 percent LOB% right now. He’s given up 12 HR in his nine starts and righties are feasting with a .553 SLG and a .394 wOBA. Lefties aren’t doing so bad either with a .481 SLG and a .362 wOBA.
Arizona – After struggling through three tough left-handers in the series against the Dodgers, a frustrated Diamondbacks lineup should be ready to unload on somebody. That poor soul could be today’s starter Tim Adleman. Adleman has a 4.67 ERA with a 5.64 FIP and a 4.89 xFIP. With shaky control, command, and a fly ball profile, the parks in which Adleman can have success are kind of limited. Chase Field doesn’t fit that profile. The Diamondbacks are also a top offense against RHP.
Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers are showing no mercy of late, as they plow through the regular season. Today’s victims could be the surging Kansas City Royals and Jason Hammel. The Dodgers should be able to have success against Hammel, who has a 5.08 ERA with a 4.52 FIP and a 5.29 xFIP. Unlike a lot of pitcher that simply have high home run rates to create poor run metrics, Hammel only has a 9.5 percent HR/FB%, so he’s giving things up the old fashioned way by letting hitters string together knocks. That could make for a fun evening for the fans at Chavez Ravine.
Here are the top value hitters for July 7
Martin Prado ($3,400) – The Marlins have to be fielding a ton of calls for the versatile Martin Prado. Prado has a favorable matchup today against left-hander Matt Moore. Moore has spent the season allowing a lot of high exit velocity contact. It also just so happens that he throws left-handed and Prado has a .310/.377/.471 slash in his career against lefties with a .367 wOBA and a 129 wRC+ over 1,531 plate appearances.
Kyle Schwarber ($3,500) – Kyle Schwarber is back in the big leagues and has a favorable matchup today against Trevor Williams. The Cubs are hoping that Schwarber, who hit .343/.477/.714 in his 11 games with Triple-A Iowa, got some confidence back with his quick minor league stint and is ready to look like the dangerous hitter that he is once again.
Lonnie Chisenhall ($3,700) – The Indians get another crack at Jordan Zimmermann tonight. Their inconsistent offense should be excited about that matchup, as Zimmermann has a 5.58 ERA with a 5.79 FIP and a 5.30 xFIP. Both lefties and righties are busy beating Zimmermann around the yard. Chisenhall has been swinging a good bat this season with a .303/.374/.567 slash, including a .289/.342/.570 slash against right-handed pitching.
Here are the top value pitchers for July 7
Sean Manaea ($6,400) – If Sean Manaea is on the hill, I’m going to be looking in his direction. Manaea draws the Mariners today, an offense that has certainly been good, but does have its issues. Manaea has seen some positive gains in the luck metrics, so his ERA is down to 3.75 with a 3.63 FIP and a 3.95 xFIP. He’s struck out 90 in 86.1 innings of work. This price is laughably low.
Jordan Montgomery ($6,500) – I’m willing to roll the dice on Jordan Montgomery today. The Brewers have been a bit better against left-handed hurlers this season, but their inconsistency is enough to allow me to take a shot at Montgomery, especially at a good price. He’s struck out 83 in 87 innings of work with good peripherals and plus command.
James Paxton ($8,500) – James Paxton seems to be back on track. The southpaw has a 3.27 ERA with a 2.92 FIP and a 3.62 xFIP. He’s struck out 82 in 74.1 innings of work. Paxton missed a little over four weeks from May 2 to May 29 and came back to struggle with his command. He’s gradually gotten better and has looked sharp in his last two starts. He has clear strikeout upside and has only allowed five HR in 74.1 innings, which should limit Oakland’s ability to score.