Yankees and Rangers begin ALCS
By: Michael Robinson
Two franchises with polar opposite histories, the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers, begin the ALCS on Friday night.
Bookmaker.com has New York as 144 road favorites with a total of 8 ½-runs (‘under’ is minus 120). The Yankees are 176 ‘chalk’ to win the series.
New York is the defending champion and owner of 27 World Series titles. The Rangers started in 1961 as the Washington Senators before heading south in 1972. They just won their first playoff series against Tampa Bay.
The Yankees finished the regular season at 95-27, but were the wild-card after finishing second in the AL East to Tampa Bay. An uncharacteristic 8-17 regular season finish proved costly. The team redeemed itself with a 3-0 sweep over Minnesota in the ALDS.
Texas (90-72) was the class of the AL West all season. It clinched the division on Sept. 25, its first playoff berth since 1999.
The Rangers won the first two playoff games in Tampa Bay (5-1, 6-0). They then dropped two at home (6-3, 5-2) and it looked like their playoff jinx may continue. However, a Game 5 gem by ace Cliff Lee closed out the series in Tampa with a 5-1 victory.
C.J. Wilson is Texas’ starter by default on Friday. Lee isn’t available until Monday’s Game 3. Lee is an incredible 6-0 with a 1.44 ERA in the playoffs over the last two years. He had two starts (2-0, 2.81 ERA) against the Yankees in the World Series while pitching for Philadelphia.
Wilson went 15-8 with a 3.35 ERA during the regular season. He spent the prior four seasons in the bullpen. Wilson helped Texas team ERA go from eighth (4.38) in the AL in 2009 to fourth (3.93) this year, a big reason for its success.
Wilson got the win at Tampa Bay last Thursday, throwing 6 1/3 scoreless innings in his first career playoff game.
The 29-year-old lefty had an OPS allowed of .622. Left-handed hitters had just a .400 OPS. The Yankees had a much lower winning percentage (.534) against lefty starters and are 2-9 in their last 11 against them.
Wilson has a higher ERA at home (3.70) than away (2.91), but Texas won 15 of his 19 home starts. He was 0-1 with a 5.65 ERA in three starts vs. New York this year. His last one on Sept. 10 at home was his shortest outing of the season (three innings).
CC Sabathia will be the opposing pitcher. Last year’s ALCS MVP didn’t look great in the ALDS at Minnesota (Oct. 6). He allowed four runs (three earned) over six innings. He trailed 3-0 until New York scored six combined runs in the sixth and seventh inning.
The 30-year-old lefty is one of the Cy Young favorites after posting a 21-7 mark with a 3.18 ERA. He had a stretch from June 3 to Sept. 2 when New York went 16-2 in his starts. He did have a couple of bad outings in September.
Sabathia had one start against Texas this year, one earned run over six innings in a 5-1 April home win. He’s 4-2 with a 4.71 ERA in six career starts at Texas.
The Yankees are 12-1 in his last 13 starts against the AL West. However, Texas is 6-0 in its last six starts against a left-handed starter.
The teams split eight meetings this year, with each home team going 3-1. Texas was 51-30 at home before dropping the two against Tampa. The Yankees were 43-38 on the road before winning two at Minnesota.
First pitch on Friday is 5 p.m. (PT). Weather will be clear and in the 70s.
The Game 2 matchup on Saturday is Phil Hughes for New York and Colby Lewis for Texas. Andy Pettitte is being saved to match up against Lee.
Friday's Best MLB Mound Matchup
CC Sabathia, New York Yankees vs. C.J. Wilson, Texas Rangers
CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 ERA)
What else is there to say about the Yankees ace? Few players in any sport are actually worth more than $24 million per season, and he is one of them.
The 2007 American League Cy Young winner and 2009 ALCS MVP was one of the most dominant pitchers in the league again this season. Sabathia led the AL in wins and was second in innings pitched (237.2), sixth in strikeouts (197), seventh in ERA and 10th in WHIP (1.19).
In a 6-4 win over the Twins in Game 1 of the ALDS, he went six innings, giving up just three earned runs on five hits. Over the past two postseasons with the
Yankees, he is a combined 4-1, notching 39 strikeouts over that span.
The past three years against the Rangers, the left-hander has gone 1-1 in three starts with a 2.84 ERA as the Rangers are hitting a mere .246 off of him over that span. In fact, if Sabathia is worried about anything, it’s too much rest.
“The last time I think I had a week or six days, and only threw one bullpen,” he told NewYorkYankees.com. “This time I threw two bullpens twice and flat ground twice and I'll do another flat ground today and last time I was a little too strong and tend to get out of whack and it's tough for me to throw strikes.”
Sabathia has seen the over hit in three of his past four starts, but is just 17-17 against the total this season.
C.J. Wilson (15-8, 3.35 ERA)
Expect the Yankees to sit on plenty of pitches against Wilson, who led the American League with a staggering 93 walks over 204 innings.
Wilson, however, worked well with men on base, finishing 10th in the AL in ERA. And against the Tampa Bay Rays in the ALDS, he was dominant, giving up only a pair of hits over 6.1 innings as he struck out seven against only two walks in a 6-0 victory.
But Wilson has had his share of struggles against the Yankees this season. In three starts against the Bronx Bombers, he has an 0-1 record, giving up 11 runs over 14.1 innings and recording just 15 strikeouts against nine walks. Over that span, New York is hitting .300 against him.
"He can cut the ball. He can ride it inside to left-handers. He can sink it, and he's got a breaking ball and he has a changeup," Rangers manager Ron Washington told the Associated Press. "Each time he takes the baseball, he gets better. He's always ready for a challenge."
Overall, the under has been a very reliable bet in Wilson starts this year, as it has gone 3-1-1 the past five times he toed the rubber and has hit in 21 of his 33 starts this season.
Friday's Analysis
Sabathia is 3-1, 3.86 in his last five starts; he beat Texas 5-1 April 16 in rain-shortened six-inning game. He is 7-4, 4.54 in 12 career postseason starts. Wilson is 2-2, 3.26 in his last five starts; he was 0-1, 6.91 in three starts against Bronx this season. he blanked Tampa Bay for 6.1 innings in his first postseason start. Bronx is fortunate Tampa Bay extended the previous series to five games, knocking Lee out of this start.
Sabathia and Wilson open ALDS Friday night
By: Tim Walsh
CC Sabathia (22-7, 3.21 ERA) and C.J. Wilson (16-8, 3.29 ERA) face off in Game 1 of the ALCS at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington on Friday. Both left-handers exit ALDS wins, with Sabathia giving up four runs (three earned) on five hits over six innings in Game 1 against Minnesota. Wilson was brilliant in Game 2 against the Rays, yielding just two hits in 6.1 shutout innings.
Sabathia has returned to earth a bit in his last three starts, going 2-1 with an ERA of 5.04. He faced Texas once this year, back on April 16 where he was also opposed by Wilson. Sabathia came out on the winning end of a 5-1 Yankee victory, going six innings and giving up one run on three hits while striking out nine. He’s had a fair amount of success against the Rangers in his career, carrying an 8-3 record and a 4.29 ERA into Friday’s matchup.
Game 1 marks the fourth time this year that Wilson faces the Yankees. He took the loss in that April 16 matchup and earned no-decisions in the next two starts, both Texas wins. Wilson has performed well at home this year, going 11-3 with a 3.78 ERA. That stat might bode well for the Rangers who took four of five home games from New York this year. Texas has also won 13 of Wilson’s last 16 starts, including seven of his last eight at home.
Given Wilson’s success in Arlington, the FoxSheets show the underdog Rangers provide some value in Game 1:
Play Against - Road teams (NY YANKEES) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL, starting an over-rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest. (72-33 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.6%, +38.7 units. Rating = 3*).
WILSON is 25-7 (78.1%, +16.1 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. (Team's Record). The average score was WILSON 4.8, OPPONENT 2.9 - (Rating = 2*).