Friday's Best MLB Bets
Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies (-260, 7)
Getting the nod for Opening Day is always memorable for a pitcher. But this Friday’s start for Houston Astros righty Brett Myers holds even more meaning, coming against his former club in his former ballpark.
"I probably have some adrenaline, but it's maintaining and harnessing it for the right reasons and not trying to overdo it or throw too hard," Myers told MLB.com. "Usually, the first inning for me is a test, and after the first inning every game I have to try to control myself and relax."
As a member of the Phillies for eight years, Myers made three Opening-Day starts for Philadelphia, posting a 0-1 and a 4.82 ERA in those outings. Last year, his first season with the Astros, he finished with a 14-8 record and a 3.14 ERA – the lowest Earned Run Average of his career.
"What he did last year was more than solid," Houston manager Brad Mills told reporters. "We want him to compete and let him keep the team in the ballgame, and there's no reason to think he won't do that, because that's the type of pitcher he is, the type of makeup he has and the type of teammate he is. He gives us a chance to win every time he takes the ball and goes to the hill."
Myers will go toe-to-toe with National League Cy Young winner Roy Halladay Friday, who was stellar in his Phillies debut on Opening Day 2010. Halladay delivered a one-run, seven-hit performance over seven innings for an 11-1 victory over the Washington Nationals.
Halladay posted an 8-10 over/under record inside Citizens Bank Park last season, while Myers was 5-13 over/under on the road in 2010.
Pick: Under
Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays (-130, 8.5)
Opening Day will be a very special moment for one of baseball’s best Friday. Minnesota Twins first baseman and former American League MVP, Justin Morneau, takes the field for the first time since suffering a concussion last July.
Not only is Morneau back in action after a long rehab, but the Canadian is back on home soil, facing the Toronto Blue Jays in the Rogers Centre – which happens to be the same place he suffered the injury in a series with the Jays in early July.
"You know, I don't want to put too much into it," Morneau told TSN.com. "It's the first game hopefully of 162 and the playoffs for us. Obviously it will be special to be out there. But you want to continue to be out there."
Morneau is hitting .347 versus Toronto over the past three seasons. He’s totaled five homes runs, 14 RBIs, and boasts an OPS of 1.057 in 72 at-bats against Blue Jays pitchers in that span. The Twins have gone just 4-12 in their last 16 games in Toronto, while the over is 19-7-3 in the last 29 meetings north of the border .
"I just try not to put as much into it as I did," Moreau said of returning to Canada. "My first two years, we went (to Toronto) and I think I had one hit in the first two series. So now I go back there and try not to put too much into it.
"You know I get excited, obviously. It feels good to be home and everything else but the more I put into it, the more pressure, the more excitement you put into it, that can work against you."
Pick: Over
MLB Betting Preview: Houston Astros, Phillies lock horns
By: Willie Bee
Philadelphia is the team to beat on paper entering the 2011 season. On the field, however, the Phillies are starting the campaign on the wrong foot, hand, shoulder and knee according to the latest list of walking wounded.
So are their opponents in Friday's season opener, the Houston Astros.
The two National League clubs will be at Citizen's Bank Park in Philly for a 10:05 a.m. (PT) first pitch on ESPN, assuming the weather cooperates. Charlie Manuel gives the ball to last year's NL Cy Young winner Roy Halladay to get things rolling, with Brad Mills sending former Phillie Brett Myers to the mound for Houston.
The Phillies will open play with second baseman Chase Utley (knee injury), rookie outfielder Domonic Brown (hand) and closer RP Brad Lidge (shoulder) on the DL. There has been no timetable set for Utley's return, while Brown could return by mid-to-late April after surgery on a broken bone in his right hand. He was expected to take over in right this year for Jayson Werth who bolted for Washington via free agency on the Scott Boras Express.
Lidge's sore shoulder has turned into a torn rotator cuff. He's out at least through mid-June, and could miss the entire season. Veteran Jose Contreras, who turned 39 this offseason, is expected to get the majority of the save opportunities while Lidge is out.
Houston also suffered several bad bites from the spring injury bug, first losing starting catcher Jason Castro (knee) for the season. Clint Barmes, acquired from Colorado during the winter, was plunked on the left hand by the Yankees' Ivan Nova during a recent exhibition game and will likely miss all of April. Angel Sanchez will take Barmes' place at short.
In his final Grapefruit League start before the season, lefty J.A. Happ suffered a strained oblique and is not expected to answer the call in Sunday's series finale against his former club who dealt him to get Roy Oswalt last July. No official word yet on who might take his place in the rotation though Ryan Rowland-Smith is a very likely candidate.
But enough about the players that won't be part of Friday's action.
Halladay certainly made an impression in his first NL season after 12 years with Toronto in the American League. From a perfect game in late-May versus Florida to the no-hitter against Cincinnati in the NLDS, he was as dominant and consistent a pitcher as you could find.
The Phils were 22-11 in his 33 regular seasons starts, 2-1 in the postseason. In front of the home fans with Halladay on the hill, Philly was 14-6 including a pair of postseason starts. One of those six defeats came to these Astros in late-August, 3-2, long balls from Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn doing the damage.
Myers was also incredibly consistent for Houston in 2010, his first with the Astros after spending eight campaigns with the Phillies. The former first-round pick lasted at least six innings in 32 of his 33 assignments, the one exception his final start of the season when he worked 5-2/3 innings.
His lone start versus the Phillies in 2010 came in August, another 3-2 Houston victory thanks to a late 2-run single by Carlos Lee. The Astros were 20-13 overall in his 33 starts while Myers fashioned a 3.14 ERA and worked the fifth-most innings in the NL (223-2/3).
Myers' last two seasons with Philadelphia saw him make 19 starts at Citizens Bank Park. The Phils only won six of those outings despite Myers posting a respectable 3.42 ERA in a park known as hitter-friendly.
The two clubs took turns pulling off road sweeps against each other in 2010. Bettors who got on board for all four of Houston's wins in Philly last August are probably still counting their money after the 'Stros won the games as 165, 240, 310 and 155 underdogs on the MLB money line. That was payback and then some for the Phils' early-April sweep in Houston that was capped by Halladay besting Oswalt in a 2-1 duel.
After all of the talk about the Phillies pitchers this winter, Mother Nature might actually throw the first curveball of their season. The current forecast calls for chilly conditions, a 50 percent chance of a rain/snow mix on Friday and an afternoon high at 50ºF. Saturday's weather should be dryer, but not much warmer.
A battle of southpaws is expected in Game 2 of the series. Cliff Lee is slated for the Phils against Houston's Wandy Rodriguez. Game 3 was to have been the Happ-Oswalt battle, but Happ has been scratched.
Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers
By: Michael Robinson
The Texas Rangers may be the defending American League champion, but it’s the Boston Red Sox generating the most buzz from the Junior Circuit.
ESPN will have Friday’s season opener for both squads at 1:05 p.m. (PT) from Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. The Don Best odds screen has Boston at around 120 road favorites with a total of 8½-runs.
Bookmaker.com has Boston (plus 170) as the solid favorite to win the AL, with the Yankees and Rangers next at plus 350 each. The Red Sox are plus 320 to win the World Series, only trailing Philadelphia (plus 220). The Rangers are plus 625.
The Red Sox went 89-73 last year, good for only third in the AL East behind Tampa Bay (96-66) and the Yankees (95-67). Injuries were a big reason for Boston’s struggles with Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury all missing huge chunks of the season.
All three of those guys are healthy now and Boston made two huge acquisitions in Tampa Bay outfielder Carl Crawford and San Diego first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. Boston’s lineup has speed, power and on-base capability, and should battle the Yanks for most runs scored in the league.
The starting staff has issues with John Lackey, Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka all question marks despite their high salaries. However, one guy who few people are questioning is Friday’s starter Jon Lester.
Lester developed into the ace of the staff last year (19-9, 3.25 ERA). That’s despite another slow April start of 1-2 with a 4.71 ERA. He also went 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA in April 2009.
The 27-year-old lefty pitched better on the road (11-4, 2.88 ERA) last year than at Fenway Park (8-5, 3.67 ERA). He pitched eight scoreless innings at Texas in August, getting a 3-1 win against Colby Lewis.
Lester is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA in two lifetime starts in Texas.
Lester’s only other game against Texas last year was in Boston in July. Friday’s opposing pitcher C.J. Wilson got the win by allowing one run over 6 2/3 innings. Lester got the tough 4-2 loss by surrendering three runs over eight.
The Rangers won the AL West last year (90-72) and proceeded to dispatch both the Yankees and Tampa Bay to make their first World Series in franchise history. A 4-1 series loss to the Giants dimmed matters some and so did some offseason defections.
Lefty Cliff Lee decided to join the All-Star starting staff of the Philadelphia Phillies. Lee wasn’t great (4-6, 3.98 ERA) after coming over from Seattle in July, but gave a big boost in the playoffs (3-2, 2.78 ERA). There was talk about moving closer Neftali Feliz into the rotation to help fill the void, but he’ll stay in the pen with his 40 saves.
Wilson (15-8, 3.35 ERA) is the de-facto ace with Lee gone and there are big questions at the back-end of the rotation. He allowed just a .217 batting average last year and .622 OPS. That far exceeded expectations after being exclusively in the pen from 2006-2009.
The 30-year-old lefty has to prove he’s not a ‘one-year wonder,’ but he does have the quality stuff to succeed again. Wilson was 11-3 with a 3.70 ERA at home last year. His ERA was much lower away (2.91), but only translated into a 4-5 mark.
Wilson beat Lester in Boston last year as mentioned above. He was 3-0 with a .86 ERA against the Sox last year overall, allowing one run over 7 2/3 innings in his one home start. Boston’s lineup does have a potential problem spot with five of the top seven hitters left-handed. Starting off against a tough lefty like Wilson is a big test.
Texas had a major home field advantage last year at 51-30, compared to 39-42 away. The offense had a lot to do with that, averaging a run more there (5.31) than on the road (4.42).
Boston has traditionally struggled in Texas, going 1-2 last year and 1-5 in 2009.
Boston is not reporting any significant injuries. Texas starter Tommy Hunter (groin) begins the year on the DL. Texas third baseman Adrian Beltre (calf) is healthy and will face his old teammates after playing great for Boston as an impending free agent last year (28 HRs, 102 RBIs).
Weather should be clear and warm in the upper 80s. This three-game series continues Saturday night with Lackey (14-11, 4.40 ERA) facing Lewis (12-13, 3.72 ERA).
Friday's MLB Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Major League Baseball season is underway following Thursday's six-pack of games as the Friday card unveils 11 matchups. The American League card is loaded with six games as the Yankees and Tigers will be the only teams not participating on Friday. The Rays try to move forward after several key offseason departures as Tampa Bay hosts re-tooled Baltimore, while the Rangers start their defense of the AL pennant against the Red Sox. We'll start in northern Ohio with the Indians looking to knock off the upstart White Sox.
White Sox at Indians
These AL Central rivals start the April action in the junior circuit as Chicago attempts to return to the postseason for the first time since winning the division in 2008. The Indians try to bounce back from a 69-win campaign in 2010, while going for their first .500 season in four years. The key for Cleveland is its ace keeping up a fantastic run against Chicago.
The Tribe was 3-0 in Fausto Carmona's three outings against the Sox last season, while delivering a quality start each time. Carmona beat Chicago last April in the opening series of the season with one of the odder lines in recent memory by allowing one hit in six innings, but walking six and giving up three runs in a 5-3 win. The right-hander received an average of only three runs support in his 19 starts at Progressive Field, while hitting the 'under' 13 times.
Mark Buehrle takes the mound for the Sox, as he looks to duplicate his success against the Indians from last season. Chicago was 5-1 in the southpaw's six starts in this series in 2010, even though Buehrle was ejected from a May 26 game after arguing a balk call. Buehrle tossed a gem in last season's opener against the Indians, pitching seven scoreless innings in a 6-0 shutout. His numbers weren't so stellar on the highway with a 6-8 mark away from U.S. Cellular Field, while yielding 11 home runs on the road.
Red Sox at Rangers
Boston looks to be the favorite to represent the American League in the World Series this October, but first the Red Sox have to get past the team holding the crown. The Rangers' surge to the franchise's first-ever World Series last season brings plenty of confidence into this season, as Texas looks to move forward after Cliff Lee and Vladimir Guerrero departed in free agency.
The Sox send out star lefty Jon Lester to open the season, trying to capitalize off a career-best 19 wins in 2010. Lester dominated away from Fenway Park with an 11-4 record and 2.88 ERA, including a 6-1 mark in his final seven road starts. Boston is 5-1 in Lester's last six outings against Texas since 2008, as the southpaw tossed eight scoreless innings of five-hit ball in a 3-1 victory in Arlington last August.
With Lee's short stay in Texas now finished, C.J. Wilson is the new ace of this Rangers' staff. The left-hander silenced the Red Sox in three starts last season by allowing two earned runs and striking out 20 in three victories. Wilson picked up a pair of underdog victories at Fenway Park, including a win over Lester on August 18 in a 4-2 triumph.
The Rangers grabbed six of 10 meetings last season from the Red Sox, while going 2-1 in Arlington in mid-August. Since 2009, Texas is 7-2 in nine home matchups with Boston, as the 'under' has cashed six times.
Orioles at Rays
Tampa Bay is coming off its second division title in three seasons as the Rays battle the Orioles at Tropicana Field. The Rays have moved forward with the signings of Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon, while losing Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, and Matt Garza in the offseason. Meanwhile, the Orioles have plenty of old faces wearing the Black and Orange with Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds, J.J. Hardy, and Vladimir Guerrero with the team this season.
Baltimore played extremely well over the final two months of last season after Buck Showalter took over as manager, compiling a 34-23 record. Jeremy Guthrie takes the mound for the O's, coming off an 11-14 campaign in 2010, even though the righty finished with a 3.83 ERA. The Orioles were 5-11 in Guthrie's 16 road starts, while he pitched one of his best games of the season at the Trop with a 5-0 shutout of the Rays on August 13.
David Price comes off his best season in his short career with a 19-6 record, while narrowly missing out on the AL Cy Young Award. The Rays' southpaw put together a 2.26 ERA at home last season, as Price went 9-4 at Tropicana Field. Price handled his business against the Orioles in 2010 with two victories in two starts, while allowing just one earned run in 15 innings of work.
Tampa Bay won 11 of 18 meetings last season, even though Baltimore found a way to win four of nine games at Tropicana Field. One angle to consider is the 'under,' which cashed in eight of nine matchups at Tampa Bay last season.
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