Friday's Prime Time Look
By Judd Hall
All 30 teams in Major League Baseball will take the field on Friday. Yet we’re going to focus on a pair of openers: one that is a matchup of polar opposites from the NL East and another will have us seeing a team travelling cross country in a rematch of an AL Division Series from a year ago.
Washington Nationals (S. Martis) at Atlanta Braves (D. Lowe) – 7:35 p.m. EDT
Atlanta certainly looked like it was going to be entering this game with a 3-0 record, but its bullpen couldn’t hold a seven-run lead late. So the Braves enter this game after collapsing 12-11 versus Philadelphia as $1.05 road pups (risk $100 to win $105).
If there is anything that we can take away from the Braves’ opening series is that they’re seeing the ball well as a team. Atlanta is hitting a combined .259 as a team right now and leads the majors with eight home runs. One of those four-baggers came from Jeff Francoeur, who is desperately trying to forget a 2008 campaign that saw him hit .239 with 71 runs batted in.
Given the issues the bullpen had, it makes having Derek Lowe on the mound for the home opener all the more important. Lowe had his breaking ball working last Sunday as he confused the Phils for eight innings and gave up just two hits to win his first game for Atlanta.
Bettors should feel comfortable in knowing that Lowe has owned the Nationals during his career, amassing a 5-1 record with an earned run average of 2.77. And the Nats are only hitting .213 against him.
Washington will just be trying to keep the game close in the early going, having been outscored 20-4 in the first three games of 2009. That means they’ll be counting on Shairon Martis to stop the early bleeding. Will he be able to do it? It’s questionable since Martis was 1-3 with a 5.66 ERA in four starts last season.
If there is anything that the Nationals can hang their hat on is that they were 5-4 at Turner Field last season.
The ‘over’ is 9-1 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these National League East foes.
Atlanta has tended to bounce back from a loss well recently as they’ve won the last four games it has played following a defeat.
Boston Red Sox (T. Wakefield) at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (J. Weaver) – 10:05 p.m. EDT
Just a day ago, this was just a rematch of an AL Division Series from last season. Now, it’s going to start the healing process for the Angels after losing young pitcher Nick Adenhart in an automobile accident early Thursday morning.
Los Angeles did the right thing of postponing its series finale with the Athletics on Thursday night in response of the tragedy. Aside from a day to grieve the loss of a teammate, this night off also offers the Halos is their choice of either Jered Weaver or Shane Loux.
On one side you have Weaver, who has gone 1-2 with a 5.35 ERA in 33.2 IP in his brief career against the Red Sox. He also picked up the Angels’ lone win against Boston in the Division Series last October.
The Angels should be more worried about their big bats of Bobby Abreu, Vladimir Guerrero and Torrii Hunter. The 3-4-5 hitters for Los Angeles have hit a combined 5-for-26 with just three RBI and left nine runners on base in the last two games against the A’s. The trio has performed well over their respective careers against Red Sox pitching with Abreu having the lowest average, hitting .284.
Boston will give the ball to Tim Wakefield to begin the game. The veteran knuckleballer hasn’t fared too well against the Angels during his career, going 9-12 with a 4.80 ERA. He’s just 5-7 with a 4.80 ERA at Angel Stadium. And he didn’t even get a shot at pitching against the Halos in the playoffs last year.
When you take the playoff series out of the mix, LA played great at home versus the BoSox by sweeping them in mid-July last year. The ‘under’ went 2-1 in that series.
That low scoring info should be helpful considering that Boston has seen the ‘under’ go 5-1in its last six road matches against right-handed starters.
The Sawx are just 2-6 in Wakefield’s past eight starts versus Los Angeles. And they are 0-4 in the last four road outings for the knuckleballer against the Halos.
This tilt is also a pretty good spot to fade the Red Sox as they’re 1-7 in their last eight openers on the West Coast having played on the East Coast in the following game. The ‘over’ is 6-2 in those fixtures.
vegasinsider.com
Friday Pitching Outlook
By Josh Jacobs
If you haven’t heard by now the ‘over’ went a blistering 11-4 on Wednesday. Pitching was at a premium as offenses unloaded on the ball, averaging close to 11 runs scored per game in the 15 contests that were on the board.
Since pitching is such an integral part of handicapping any given game this is what Friday has to serve up from the elevated dirt they call the mound.
Rich Harden has had an unpredictable career in terms of staying healthy. His career 41-20 record topped off with a 3.23 ERA have been marred by an average of 16.8 starts per season. There’s no questioning Harden's talent. A fastball which clocks in at the mid to upper 90s, a splitter which can be as unpredictable as a knuckleball and all accompanied by the use of a slider and changeup are enough said. But all of that skill comes crashing down now that the Chicago Cubs released information that Harden has a minuscule tear in his shoulder joint. Since operating on the arm is out of the question during this point and time expectations for another season of limited innings is in the plans.
Towards the end of last season Harden helped keep games to hitting the ‘under’ five of seven times. In 26 starts for both Oakland and Chicago in 2008, books decided to set totals no higher then 7 ½ runs 18 times. This resulted in a 10-8 record on the ‘under’.
Harden is 7-3 in April/March pitching, building that success on a 2.96 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. But don’t look for much statistical analysis in head-to-head contests as the six-year veteran has started just two games against Milwaukee during his career. This has resulted in a 1-0 record and a 2.67 ERA in just 12 innings of work. Just how effective can the Brewers be in tagging Harden on Friday?
Trends: The ‘over’ is 12-3-2 in the last 17 head-to-head meetings in Milwaukee, the ‘over’ is 7-2-1 in the last 10 games together and the Cubs are 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Milwaukee. The last game that Harden pitched in against the Brewers was on Sept. 18 in a 7-6 win. Harden game up one hit and one run in five innings. Seven strikeouts were side stepped by six base on balls in that contest.
When the Mets take on Florida in Game 1 of this weekend’s series, John Maine will take the mound at 7:10 p.m. EST. Maine can be a frustrating slinger as 2008 was the epitome of inconstancy. April witnessed the righty giving up 2.2 runs per game as May and June saw that number jump to three runs per game. But it’s how he finished the last nine games of ’08 that defined his roller coaster season. Maine was 2-3 through this stretch as his ERA rose to 4.18 to cap off the year.
A 3-1 record, 2.75 ERA and 47 strikeouts in six starts against the Marlins have been solid stats in Maine’s career. His last outing against Florida was on Jul. 28, 2007 for which Maine went only 4.1 innings, giving up four hits and one earned run. Forty-seven of his 75 pitches were called strikes (63%). But would could be more important in this go-around is New York’s bullpen which has already supported their starting pitchers in the last two games.
Trends: The Mets are 15-5 in their last 20 meetings in Florida, are 10-2-3 in Maine’s last 15 overall starts all while the ‘over’ is 20-7-2 in the last 29 games played in Florida by these two clubs.
From the pen to the rotation, Ryan Rowland-Smith finds himself as the No. 5 starter for the time being. Serving as the second lefty option in Seattle’s rotation, Rowland-Smith closed out ’08 taking three wins in the last seven starts. A 13-8-1 record on the ‘over’ has been indirectly applied to the last 22 games that Rowland-Smith has pitched in given his various rolls from the pen to taking a start. Some numbers to be concerned about include a .431 BAA, 31 hits in 41 games and six long balls sacrificed when delivering the first pitch against an at bat. Another area that southpaw struggled in was getting batters out with one out recorded. As opposed to giving up a .254 BA with no outs on the inning, Rowland-Smith has managed to stink up the joint by allowing a .286 BAA on top of a .336 OBP and a .427 slugging percentage. And to compliment these problems is a .311 BAA in 17 games when the Mariners have been in the 7th inning onward with the team tied, ahead by one or at least have the tying run at least on deck (better known as Late & Close).
Trends: The Mariners will be facing the Athletics for which they are 0-4 in the last four meetings in Oakland. The ‘under’ is 5-2-2 in the last nine head-to-head meetings all while the Athletics are 11-5 in their last 16 during Game 1 of a series.
vegasinsider.com
Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
Friday, April 10
Philadelphia at Colorado (4:10 p.m. EDT). World Series MVP Cole Hamels makes his first start of the season. The lefty was supposed to pitch Philadelphia's opener, but was pushed back because of minor elbow trouble.
STARS
Thursday
-Matt Garza, Rays, pitched seven innings of four-hit ball to help Tampa Bay to a 4-3 win at Boston. Garza was the MVP of the ALCS last year after twice beating the Red Sox.
-Marlon Byrd, Rangers, homered and tied a career high with five RBIs as Texas beat Cleveland 12-8.
-Grady Sizemore, Indians, hit a pair of two-run homers in Cleveland's 12-8 loss at Texas.
-Nick Swisher, Yankees, homered, doubled, singled and matched a career best with five RBIs in New York's 11-2 win at Baltimore.
-Coco Crisp, Royals, hit a two-run homer in the ninth inning to break a scoreless tie and lift Kansas City past the Chicago White Sox 2-1.
-Jarrod Washburn, Mariners, gave up five hits in eight sharp innings as Seattle beat Minnesota 2-0.
-Chris Carpenter, Cardinals, took a no-hit bid into the seventh inning during St. Louis' 2-1 win over Pittsburgh. Ramon Vazquez singled under the glove of second baseman Skip Schumaker with two outs in the seventh.
-Francisco Cordero, Reds, struck out the side in the ninth inning to close out Cincinnati's 8-6 win against the New York Mets.
SCARY
Giants rookie reliever Joe Martinez was hit in the head by Mike Cameron's line drive in the ninth inning of San Francisco's 7-1 win over Milwaukee. Martinez was able to walk off the mound, his forehead bleeding and his right eye swollen. He was taken to a hospital for a CT scan and evaluation. The 26-year-old Martinez made his major league debut Tuesday and wound up as the winning pitcher on opening day.
SAVING UP
Dennys Reyes earned his first save since Sept. 27, 1999, by closing out the Cardinals' 2-1 win over Pittsburgh on Thursday. That gap of nine years, 192 days between saves was the longest since Boston's Curt Schilling went 13 years, 77 days before getting one on July 19, 2005, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
THAT'S PITCHING!
Royals starters Gil Meche, Zack Greinke and Kyle Davies combined to hold the White Sox to one earned run in 20 innings while striking out 21 in the season-opening, three-game series.
REMEMBER, THOSE STATS DIDN'T COUNT
Orioles reliever Chris Ray gave up two runs in the ninth inning Thursday in an 11-2 loss to the Yankees. That left him with a 27.00 ERA this season - he had an 0.00 ERA in spring training.
GIVE AND TAKE
A day after Albert Pujols set a franchise record for Cardinals first basemen with seven assists, he made two poor throws in the third inning of Thursday's 2-1 win over Pittsburgh. He drew an error for bouncing a throw to second on a bunt, then threw wide to the plate on a play that was ruled a fielder's choice.
LUCKY LEFTY
Lefty hitter Joey Votto had a three-run homer and a run-scoring single off left-handed Oliver Perez in the Reds' 8-6 win over the Mets on Thursday. Last year, Perez led NL pitchers in holding lefty swingers to a .158 batting average.
SWINGS
Texas is 3-0 for the first time since 1996 after sweeping the Indians, dropping them to 0-3 for the first time since 1996. Funny thing about that season 13 years ago: Both the Rangers and Cleveland wound up winning division titles.
SPEAKING
"You just hope that the young man is all right, that everything is good and that he's safe first and foremost. I just hope that he gets a chance to go back on the field again. I couldn't stop shaking. It's kind of a helpless feeling. I was just trying to pray for him because I know how dangerous that can be.'' - Mike Cameron, who hit the line drive that struck Giants rookie pitcher Joe Martinez in the head.
TEXAS vs. DETROIT
Texas is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Texas is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Texas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing Texas
CHI CUBS vs. MILWAUKEE
Chi Cubs are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Chi Cubs's last 10 games when playing Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 2-6 SU in their last 8 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Milwaukee's last 15 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs
TORONTO vs. CLEVELAND
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Toronto is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Toronto
NY YANKEES vs. KANSAS CITY
NY Yankees are 13-5 SU in their last 18 games
NY Yankees are 18-7 SU in their last 25 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 7-18 SU in their last 25 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Kansas City's last 11 games when playing NY Yankees
PHILADELPHIA vs. COLORADO
Philadelphia is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 9 games on the road
Colorado is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Colorado's last 10 games
TAMPA BAY vs. BALTIMORE
Tampa Bay is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Baltimore's last 9 games when playing Tampa Bay
NY METS vs. FLORIDA
NY Mets are 15-5 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Florida
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Mets's last 5 games when playing Florida
Florida is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Florida's last 9 games
PITTSBURGH vs. CINCINNATI
Pittsburgh is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
WASHINGTON vs. ATLANTA
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
MINNESOTA vs. CHI WHITE SOX
Minnesota is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Minnesota's last 15 games on the road
Chi White Sox are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Chi White Sox's last 12 games when playing Minnesota
HOUSTON vs. ST. LOUIS
Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Houston's last 16 games when playing St. Louis
St. Louis is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
St. Louis is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
LA DODGERS vs. ARIZONA
LA Dodgers are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games
LA Dodgers are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games on the road
Arizona is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
BOSTON vs. LA ANGELS
Boston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 7 games on the road
LA Angels are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games when playing Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of LA Angels's last 15 games when playing at home against Boston
SAN FRANCISCO vs. SAN DIEGO
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
San Francisco is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
San Diego is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
SEATTLE vs. OAKLAND
Seattle is 2-15 SU in its last 17 games on the road
Seattle is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Oakland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Seattle
Oakland is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
Hot Pitchers
-- Harden was 1-0, 1.50 in two starts vs Milwaukee LY.
-- Hamels is 4-0, 1.80 in his last five starts. Marquis is 3-2, 3.06 in his last five starts.
-- Maine has 0.63 RA in his last three road starts.
-- Lowe has a 1.43 RA in his last thirteen starts.
-- Giants are 8-3 in Zito's last eleven road starts.
-- Detroit was 9-4 in Galarraga home starts last season.
-- Indians were 4-0 in Lewis starts LY (4-0, 3.38) scoring 36 runs.
-- Weaver has 2.50 RA in his last three home starts.
-- Rowland-Smith has 2.75 RA in his last three starts.
Cold Pitchers
-- Looper is 0-4, 5.95 in his last six starts.
-- Cueto is 1-2, 6.16 in his last four starts. Karstens is 0-6, 7.63 in his last seven starts.
-- Sanchez is 0-3, 7.85 in his last six starts.
-- Martis was 1-3, 6.38 in four starts last season.
-- Hampton is 1-3, 4.33 in his last eight starts. Pineiro is 1-2, 7.77 in his last four outings.
-- McDonald is making first big league start for the Dodgers; he was 7-4, 3.30 in 26 minor league starts LY, mostly in AA. Garland has a 7.46 RA in his last eight starts.
-- Hill is 1-5, 9.27 in his last seven starts.
-- Benson has made 196 big league starts, but this is his first since '06.
-- Richmond was 1-3, 4.00 in five starts LY.
-- Ponson is 1-3, 7.38 in his last eight starts; he pitched for Bronx in '08. Pettitte is 1-5, 7.02 in his last six starts.
-- Hendrickson is 0-5, 10.04 in his last eight starts. Sonnanstine has 6.14 RA in his last five starts.
-- Contreras is 0-0, 8.31 in his last four starts. Dickey is 2-4, 8.38 in his last seven starts.
-- Red Sox lost nine of last twelve Wakefield road starts.
-- Anderson is making big league debut; he was 2-1, 2.61 in six starts in AA Texas League last year.
Hot Teams
-- Cubs won two of their first three games, scoring 17 runs.
-- Colorado won its last two games, allowing total of two runs.
-- Marlins scored 26 runs in their 3-0 start. Mets won two of their first three gamrs, scoring 15 runs in last two.
-- Braves won two of first three games, scoring 19 runs.
-- Giants won two of their first three games.
-- Rangers won their first three games, scoring 29 runs.
-- Blue Jays won three of their first four games.
-- Orioles, Rays both won two of their first three games.
-- Royals won two of first three games, allowing five runs.
-- A's won two of their first three games- bullpen got both wins.
Cold Teams
-- Brewers lost two of their first three games.
-- Phillies lost two of first three games, allowing 19 runs.
-- Reds lost two of first three games, allowing 15 runs in last two.
-- Washington lost its first three games, outscored 26-13.
-- Astros lost two of their first three games.
-- Arizona lost two of first three games, allowing 20 runs.
-- Tigers lost three of their last four games.
-- Indians lost first three games, allowing 29 runs.
-- Bronx lost two of its first three games, allowing 19 runs.
-- White Sox lost two of first three games, scoring five runs.
-- Red Sox, Angels both lost two of first three games.
Totals
-- Six of last eight Harden starts stayed under the total.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Marquis starts.
-- Five of last seven Cueto starts stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Maine starts went over the total.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in Lowe's last five home starts.
-- Over is 8-1-1 in last ten Pineiro starts. Seven of last eight Hampton starts stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last nine Garland starts went over the total.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in Zito's last six starts.
-- Four of last five Galarraga home starts stayed under the total.
-- Three of four Lewis starts stayed under the total LY.
-- Five of last six Ponson starts went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine Hendrickson starts went over the total.
-- Five of last six Contreras starts went over the total.
-- Last four Wakefield road starts went over the total.
-- Three of last four Rowland-Smith's starts stayed under the total.
National League
CHICAGO CUBS at MILWAUKEE
HARDEN: 61-23 TSR as favorite
LOOPER: Milwaukee 14-22 after scoring 2 runs or less
PHILADELPHIA at COLORADO
HAMELS: Philly 19-9 Over off one run win
MARQUIS: 11-0 Over vs. NL East
PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI
KARSTENS: Pit 8-1 if they had 4 hits or less last game
CUETO: Cincinnati 44-64 vs. righties
NY METS at FLORIDA
MAINE: Mets 13-5 at Florida
SANCHEZ: Florida 89-68 Over in home games
WASHINGTON at ATLANTA
MARTIS: Wash 13-43 Away vs. righties
LOWE: Atlanta 29-13 in day games
HOUSTON at ST LOUIS
HAMPTON: 44-24 Under when the total is 9 to 9.5
PINIERO: 4-7 TSR as a favorite
LA DODGERS at ARIZONA
MCDONALD: Dodgers 52-71 off one run division loss
GARLAND: 95-66 Under in night games
SAN FRANCISCO at SAN DIEGO
ZITO: 7-1 TSR Away off team win
HILL: SD 22-42 off a win
American League
TEXAS at DETROIT
BENSON: 9-2 TSR Away in April
GALARRAGA: Detroit 10-2 Over at home off BB Unders
TORONTO at CLEVELAND
RICHMOND: Toronto 33-21 in day games
LEWIS: Cleveland 24-11 Over after allowing 8+ runs
NY YANKEES at KANSAS CITY
PETTITTE: 4-12 TSR as a favorite of -125 to -175
PONSON: KC 37-25 vs. lefties
TAMPA BAY at BALTIMORE
SONNANSTINE: TB 13-2 off one run division win
HENDRICKSON: Baltimore 11-33 off 3 straight division games
MINNESOTA at CHICAGO WHITE SOX
DICKEY: Minnesota 10-0 Over Away after scoring 1 run or less
CONTRERAS: White Sox 30-10 at home vs. division
BOSTON at LA ANGELS
WAKEFIELD: Boston 98-38 off a division loss as a favorite of -150 or higher
WEAVER: 21-8 Under off team loss
SEATTLE at OAKLAND
ROWLAND-SMITH: Seattle 5-19 Away when the total is 8 to 8.5
ANDERSON: Oakland 46-16 Under off an Over