Friday's Factoids
By Brian Edwards
**Marlins at Phillies**
As of Thursday evening, most betting shops had Philadelphia (7-1, +558) listed as an extremely expensive minus-240 ‘chalk.’ Gamblers can bypass the rich straight price and go the run-line route (minus 1 ½ runs) with just minus-120 at risk.
Florida (5-4, +47) had a late-night flight into the City of Brotherly Love after wrapping up its three-game series with the Reds on Thursday. Fredi Gonzalez will give the starting nod to Anibal Sanchez, who gave up four earned runs in six innings of work during his season debut. Sanchez took a no-decision in a 6-5 home win over the Dodgers.
Sanchez has struggled against the division-rival Phillies, going 2-4 with a 5.40 ERA in seven career starts.
Philadelphia slugger Ryan Howard is 5-for-14 (.357) with a pair of doubles and two homers against Sanchez. Chase Utley has also enjoyed success against the Marlins’ right-hander, going 7-for-18 (.389) with three doubles and one triple versus Sanchez. Jayson Werth (1-for-10) and Shane Victorino (3-for-19, .158) haven’t fared as well against Sanchez.
Charlie Manuel will give the ball to his new ace Roy Halladay (2-0, 0.56) here in this spot. Halladay’s first two assignments for the Phillies have been nothing short of sensational, as the former Blue Jay has registered a pair of victories. However, Halladay is 0-1 with a 5.00 ERA in a pair of career starts against Florida.
Florida slugger Dan Uggla is 3-for-4 against Halladay with a triple, while Hanley Ramirez has a pair of singles in four at-bats versus the hard-throwing righty.
Philadelphia placed Jimmy Rollins on the 15-day disabled list this week and will be missing the All-Star shortstop for at least the next two weeks.
The ‘over’ was 7-2 overall for the Marlins going into Thursday’s series finale against Cincy. The ‘over’ went 2-1 for the Fish in their three previous road games against the Mets.
The ‘over’ had cashed at a 6-2 overall clip going into the Phillies’ series finale Thursday vs. Washington.
Fox Florida and Comcast in Philly will have the telecast at 7:05 p.m. Eastern.
**Royals at Twins**
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Minnesota (7-3, +492) as a minus-120 favorite with a total of 7 ½ ‘under’ (minus-120). As of Thursday night, most spots had the Twins at minus-120 as well. Gamblers can bring home a monster return in the plus-170 range by backing Ron Gardenhire’s squad on the run line.
Kansas City (4-5, +57) will turn to ace Zack Greinke (0-1, 3.55), who owns a 3-4 record and 3.94 career ERA against Minnesota.
Gardenhire will give the ball to Scott Baker (1-1, 3.86) in the series opener against KC. Baker owns a 7-3 record and 3.16 ERA in 12 career assignments versus the Royals.
The ‘over’ is a lucrative 7-2 overall for the Royals, 3-0 in their road outings.
The ‘under’ is 6-2-2 overall for the Twins, 1-0-1 in their home games.
The first pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. Eastern on Fox KC.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Pittsburgh LHP Zach Duke (2-0, 3.00) will face division-rival Cincinnati on Friday night. Duke is 3-6 with a 4.37 ERA in 10 lifetime starts against the Reds. Cincy will counter with Mike Leake, whose facing the Pirates for the first time.
LVSC opened St. Louis as a minus-270 favorite for Friday’s series opener against the Mets. Chris Carpenter has not been able to solve the Mets in the past, however, compiling a 1-4 record and 4.80 career ERA. New York will send Oliver Perez to the bump. The southpaw is 2-5 with a 4.84 lifetime ERA against the Cardinals.
Seattle ace Felix Hernandez will take aim at Detroit on Friday night. The right-handed phenom is 5-2 with a 2.68 career ERA against the Tigers.
vegasinsider.com
MLB RoundUp For 4/16
By Dan Bebe
National League
Astros @ Cubs (-180) with a total of N/A
Derrek Lee and Alfonso Soriano have homered off Paulino in 2 and 1 AB, respectively.
Carlos Silva's back, baby! Okay, maybe not, but he did have a nice first start to the season. Silva's a strike-thrower, and that seems to be enough to retire the Astros lately. I'm honestly pretty floored at how huge of a favorite Silva is, here, and with the Astros snapping a losing streak last night, I would definitely look at Houston to nab a second win on the season at a huge dog price.
Reds (-110) @ Pirates with a total of 8.5
Joey Votto is 10-for-16 off Zach Duke with 4 RBI;
Scott Rolen is 7-for-16 with 1 HR and 4 RBI;
Ramon Hernandez is 4-for-7, Drew Stubbs is 4-for-12 with a HR, and Jonny Gomes is 4-for-12.
All we really know about Mike Leake is that he had a decent first outing. What we know about Zach Duke is that he's a solid control pitcher that has won his first 2 outings. Well, taking a peek at the Reds lineup might make folks a little nervous about backing Duke, and while it feels like the Pirates are going to have a slightly better season, this is not a good value today. Reds or nothin'.
Marlins @ Phillies (-240) with a total of 8.5
Dan Uggla is 3-for-4, Hanley Ramirez is 2-for-4, Chris Coghlan is 2-for-2 and Wes Helms is 2-for-3 off ace Roy Halladay;
Ryan Howard is 5-for-14 with 2 HR and 3RBI off Anibal Sanchez;
Carlos Ruiz is 4-for-10;
Chase Utley is 7-for-18 with 3 RBI off Sanchez;
Roy Halladay has quickly become the most overpriced pitcher in the Majors, courtesy of beating up on the Nats and Astros. Now, let's be fair - the Phillies are mashing the cover off the ball, but if Halladay doesn't pitch a complete game 3-hitter, this game has value on the side of the dog. The big concern, though, is whether that Florida pen can pitch 2-3 innings and hold the Phillies to just a run, or so. I happen to think there are better games out there.
Brewers (-155) @ Nationals with a total of 8.5
Corey Hart is 2-for-4 with a HR and 2 RBI off Lannan;
Willie Harris and Wil Nieves are each 2-for-5 off Gallardo.
Yovani has defeated the Nats twice, but I'm not sure the statistical evidence is truly there to fade John Lannan. The Brewers hit Lannan hard in brief exposure, and if Washington wasn't coming home off a win, I might be inclined to pay the fee and back the ace, but with Washington potentially getting a tiny bit of momentum and Gallardo using way too many pitches early in games, this one is a question mark at first look.
Rockies @ Braves (-130) with a total of 8.5
Brad Hawpe and Todd Helton are each batting .324 off Lowe since 2005 with 5 combined HR and 14 combined RBI;
Chris Iannetta is 4-for-12 off Lowe;
Jason Hammel is 0-1 against Atlanta, posting an ERA of 8.00.
The Braves beat up on Hammel last year in Coors, but as folks may recall, he is a significantly better pitcher on the road than at home, and he did make a quality start in Atlanta, as well. Will 3 runs in 6 innings be good enough with the hot Atlanta bats? I'd love to say there's some value in the dog, here, but really, there isn't. The Braves should be tired from getting back pretty late, so I'd probably recommend digging deeper or passing.
Mets @ Cardinals (-250) with a total of 8
Jeff Francoeur is 3-for-10 off Carpenter with 1 HR and 2 RBI;
Luis Castillo is 3-for-10, as well;
Felipe Lopez is 6-for-19 with 1 HR and 4 RBI off Oliver Perez;
Yadier Molina is 5-for-12 with 1 HR and 3 RBI off Perez;
Albert Pujols is 6-for-13 with 2 HR and 5 RBI.
This breakdown is pretty simple. The Cardinals lost yesterday to the Astros, and Carpenter is most likely looking to bounce back off a poor start against the Brewers on ESPN. Oliver Perez is awful, maybe the most overpaid healthy starter in the Bigs. There is zero value anywhere in this game.
Diamondbacks (-110) @ Padres with a total of 8
Stephen Drew is 3-for-6 off Garland with a HR;
Adrian Gonzalez is 1-for-1 with a 3-run jack off Jackson.
Not a great deal of information here, as Garland pitched for the D'backs, so he hasn't seen a ton of his teammates. In limited action, he's 2-2, 6.67 ERA against his former club. Edwin Jackson is 0-2, 7.53 ERA against the Padres, but a lot of that was when Jackson was in the NL. This one is a toss-up. I know Petco plays huge, and I know Garland is one of those pitchers that always battles, but I might look at the "over" before either of the sides.
Giants @ Dodgers (-145) with a total of 9
Aubrey Huff is 8-for-12 with a HR and 7 RBI off Padilla since 2005;
Edgar Renteria is 5-for-10 with a HR and 2 RBI off Padilla since '05;
Reed Johnson (who probably won't play) is 5-for-15 off Wellemeyer.
Padilla is clunking his way to an 0-1, 11.42 ERA out of the gates, and he is historically a guy that doesn't hit his top velocity until it starts to really warm up. The Giants and Dodgers rivalry seems to lead to road teams playing very strong games, and I happen to believe the Giants are not only a live dog here, they might win this game easily, believe it or not.
American League
White Sox (-145) @ Indians with a total of 9
Shin-Soo Choo is 5-for-12 with a HR;
Mike Redmond is batting .432 since 2005 off Buerhle;
Jhonny Peralta is batting .321 with 2 HR with 6 RBI off Buerhle over the last 5 years.
Buerhle sort of became a "back at home, fade on the road" pitcher last year, but now we have to reassess and see how he handles 2010. Buerhle is 2-0 at home so far, and while I'd love to tell everyone to fade Mitch Talbot, I believe that's too easy. Let's see how Buerhle pitches on the road at least one time, especially with Cleveland posting a nice comeback win last night and feeling good about themselves.
Rangers @ Yankees (-210) with a total of 9
Michael Young is 5-for-13 off C.C.;
Nick Swisher is 5-for-13 with a HR off C.J. Wilson.
I'm actually a tad surprised how little C.C. has seen of these Rangers, considering he's 7-3 against them in his career, and wasn't in the NL for all that long (hah). Sabathia is coming off a dominant performance against the Rays, and Wilson is coming off a similarly impressive showing in his debut as a starter in 2010. The Yankees are a tough nut, and at this price, there's no value there. I don't think the Rangers win, but I do think they have a better than 33% shot, which is what this line would indicate.
Angels (-115) @ Blue Jays with a total of 8.5
Maicer Izturis is 4-for-11 off Marcum;
Reggie Willits is 5-for-9 off Marcum;
Adam Lind is 5-for-12 with a HR and 2 RBI off Weaver;
Lyle Overbay is 6-for-16 with a HR and 2 RBI.
Both of these hurlers have nice career numbers against this particular opponent. Weaver is 5-1, 3.00 ERA against Toronto, and Marcum, despite missing a year due to surgery, is 2-1, 3.04 ERA against the Angels. Toronto's been doing most of their scoring with the longball, and unfortunately, Weaver does give some up with his 4-seamer. I might take a peek at the Under.
Rays @ Red Sox (-165) with a total of 9.5
Willy Aybar is 4-for-7 off Josh Beckett;
Carl Crawford is batting .306 off Beckett since 2005;
B.J. Upton is 6-for-20 off Beckett.
Wade Davis got smoked for an ERA of 27 in his brief work against the Red Sox, and I wonder if this isn't just a total "avoid" game. Beckett doesn't usually start the year quickly, though his 7-4 career mark against Tampa Bay definitely gives credibility to that line. The Rays have a bad bullpen, but they've been squeaking by against the slumping Orioles. Lucky scheduling, it seems. Boston should crush Tampa not only in this game, but in the series.
Royals @ Twins (-115) with a total of 7.5
Delmon Young is 4-for-11 with a HR and 5 RBI;
Chris Getz is 2-for-6, Jason Kendall is 3-for-10, and Mitch Maier is 4-for-12.
Greinke at a dog price? That's how far the Royals pen has brought this line! Scott Baker is a good pitcher, make no mistake, and the Twinkies are rolling to start 2010, but it is just mind-boggling that Greinke is a dog against a pitcher that doesn't really qualify as a top-tier starter. I don't know if I can trust the Royals pen enough to make a play on this one or on the under. Stay tuned.
Orioles @ Athletics (-155) with a total of 7.5
Dallas Braden, somehow, is 4-1 against the Orioles with an ERA of 1.32;
Mark Ellis bats .379 off Kevin Millwood;
Ryan Sweeney is 5-for-12 with a HR off Millwood.
Kevin Millwood has continued his resurgence with a strong few starts to open the season, only to see them squandered by his punchless team. I don't know that the A's should be -155 favorites here, even though Baltimore stinks, so I'd have to look at the O's or the Under in this one. It is troublesome that Nick Markakis and Adam Jones are a combined 0-for-19 off Braden.
Tigers @ Mariners (-180) with a total of 7
Miguel Cabrera is 6-for-11 off Hernandez;
Johnny Damons is 8-for-13 with 1 HR and 4 RBI off King Felix;
Chone Figgins is 5-for-11 off Bonderman;
Ichiro has hit .364 off Bonderman.
Bonderman made a splash in his first start of 2010, looking fairly healthy coming off a season lost to a clot in his pitching arm caused by a rib pressing on a vein. We all know what Felix Hernandez can do, and now the price on his games is starting to reflect that. The Tigers have been pushing across more runs than I expected, I'll admit that, but this game is probably where it should be.
Diamond Trends - Friday
By Vince Akins
Orioles at Athletics – The Orioles are 0-8 since September 21, 2009 on the road after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Athletics are 8-0 since May 12, 2009 as a favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last three games for a net profit of $800.
Angels at Blue Jays – The Angels are 8-0 since May 27, 2009 when Jered Weaver starts after facing 25 or fewer hitters for a net profit of $800 The Angels are 0-6 since August 21, 2009 after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $730 when playing against. The Blue Jays are 0-6 since April 17, 2009 after a win in which they drew 5+ walks and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $660 when playing against.
Rockies at Braves – The Rockies are 0-6 since April 18, 2009 as a dog after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings for a net profit of $600 when playing against.
Mets at Cardinals – The Mets are 0-7 since July 03, 2009 as a road dog after a win and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Cardinals are 0-5 since May 05, 2009 as a home favorite after a loss in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $670 when playing against.
Astros at Cubs – The Astros are 0-8 since April 24, 2009 when Felipe Paulino starts after facing 25 or fewer hitters and they lost in his previous start for a net profit of $835 when playing against.
Giants at Dodgers – The Giants are 4-0 since May 08, 2009 as a road dog after a 5+ run win for a net profit of $580
White Sox at Indians – The White Sox are 1-10 since May 13, 2009 on the road when their starter went at least eight innings in his last start for a net profit of $890 when playing against. The Indians are 0-10 since September 01, 2009 as a dog and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $1000 when playing against.
Tigers at Mariners – The Mariners are 8-0 since June 10, 2009 when Felix Hernandez starts after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $805. The Mariners are 0-6 since April 16, 2009 at home after a win in which they drew 5+ walks for a net profit of $720 when playing against. The Mariners are 6-0 since June 03, 2009 at home after a win in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $675
Brewers at Nationals – The Brewers are 0-5 since July 07, 2009 when Yovani Gallardo starts after losing as a home favorite in his last start for a net profit of $590 when playing against.
Diamondbacks at Padres – The Diamondbacks are 12-1 since May 21, 2009 as a favorite after a loss in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $1085. The Diamondbacks are 0-7 since June 20, 2009 on the road after a loss in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Padres are 7-0 since May 05, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem after a loss in which they left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $725
Reds at Pirates – The Reds are 7-0 since April 19, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem after a 5+ run loss for a net profit of $730. The Pirates are 0-9 since May 04, 2009 after a 5+ run loss and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Pirates are 0-6 since April 19, 2009 when Zach Duke starts vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $600 when playing against.
Rays at Red Sox – The Red Sox are 8-0 since June 09, 2009 when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $800
Royals at Twins – The Royals are 0-8 since May 08, 2009 as a road dog after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $800 when playing against.
Rangers at Yankees – The Yankees are 11-0 since July 18, 2009 when CC Sabathia starts as a favorite vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $1100