Friday's Best MLB Bets
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox (-125, 10)
Oh, it’s going to be an interesting afternoon at Fenway Park.
The Red Sox stumble back to Beantown for their home opener after losing their first six games of the season – not exactly the start the World Series favorite was looking for.
Thursday’s loss was especially tough. Tied 0-0 in the eighth inning, Cleveland’s Asdrubal Cabrera pulled off a squeeze bunt to score Adam Everett for the only run of the game, spoiling a seven-inning shutout effort from Jon Lester.
"The slate's not really clean," Boston manager Terry Francona told reporters. "The record is what it is, but I don't want us to have a hangover. We need to pick it up. We're going to play a good team now. We haven't done a very good job to this point. I don't want us to be trying to win for this week because we can't do that."
The Sox can’t do much of anything right at this point and we’re not backing them until they break out of this funk. Phil Hughes is struggling with his velocity right now but John Lackey got rocked in his first start of the year too.
Give us the Yanks.
Pick: Yankees
Florida Marlins at Houston Astros (+110, 8)
The Houston Astros became the last team in the National League to get into the win column on Thursday against the Reds in dramatic fashion.
Matt Downs cracked a double in the ninth inning to score Brett Wallace and Brandon Lyon survived another adventurous appearance in the bottom of the frame to push the Astros to a 3-2 victory over the previously unbeaten Reds.
Bud Harris takes the hill for Houston on Thursday looking to build upon that win, but he’s a bit of a wildcard on the mound. While was fairly solid in the second half of last season, he got off on the wrong foot in his first outing of this season, giving up five runs in four innings against the Phillies.
Ricky Nolasco looked good in his first trip to the hill for Florida, but both of these clubs are hammering the over right now and that’s where the value is in this matchup.
Pick: Over
Red Sox host Yankees in home opener
By: Michael Robinson
The Boston Red Sox nightmare start to the 2011 season doesn’t get any easier with the New York Yankees coming to town for a weekend series beginning Friday.
Boston’s home opener from Fenway Park is an early 11:05 a.m. (PT) start. The pitching matchup is John Lackey against Phil Hughes.
Manager Terry Francona’s guys are off to a horrific 0-6 start following Thursday's 1-0 defeat in frigid Cleveland. Boston was trying to avoid a second-straight sweep after starting in Texas. That wasn’t expected from the solid preseason AL favorite (plus 170).
Oddsmakers at Bookmaker.com aren’t pushing the panic button yet, even if Red Sox fans are. Boston is now plus 205 to win the pennant, with the Yankees (plus 250) and Texas Rangers (plus 300) drawing closer.
A dissection of Boston’s start places blame across the board. Team ERA was an MLB-worst 8.33 before Thursday's loss, with the starters (8.53) and relievers (7.98) almost equally bad.
The offense was supposed to be a juggernaut after adding Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez to a nucleus of Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and David Ortiz. Gonzalez (.981 OPS) has performed well, but the team is scoring just 3.2 runs per game.
Ace Jon Lester started Thursday. Lackey was a curious choice as the No. 2 starter after going 14-11 with a 4.40 ERA last year after signing from the Angels. Most thought Clay Buchholz deserved the nod or even Josh Beckett, but Francona chose Lackey, citing he was in great shape.
The 32-year-old Lackey did little to silence his critics at Texas last Saturday, allowing nine earned runs over 3 2/3 innings in a 12-5 loss. No hurler likes an ERA over 22 to start the year, but that will shrink quickly with a strong outing.
The right-hander went 11-5 at Fenway last year, but a big reason was run support with just a 4.34 ERA. He did fare pretty well against the Yankees in three starts (1-1, 3.20 ERA). The two in Fenway were six innings of shutout ball back in April (3-1 loss). He then limited them to two earned runs over 7 2/3 in October (8-4 win).
Lackey will be pitching on an extra day’s rest. He had a 5.83 ERA in that situation last year, compared to 3.83 on regular rest.
The Yankees are 3-2 pending their Thursday finale with Minnesota. The teams split the first two with Wednesday's game postponed. New York went 2-1 against Detroit in its opening series.
New York hasn’t left Yankee Stadium and the offense has exploded for 6.2 runs per game. One loss came this past Tuesday against Minnesota after Rafael Soriano and the bullpen blew a great start by C.C. Sabathia.
A main culprit in the other defeat was Hughes. He ruined a potential sweep of Detroit by surrendering five earned runs last Sunday (10-7 loss). He was pulled after four innings and 90 pitches.
Hughes’ velocity has been down since spring training and it hurt him in his first outing in addition to location. The 24-year-old righty went 18-8 with a 4.19 ERA last year, but those numbers were much more pedestrian after the All-Star break (7-6, 4.90 ERA).
Hughes was 2-1 with a 3.60 ERA in five appearances against Boston last year. Only one start came at Fenway when he allowed two earned runs over seven innings last May. The Yankees won 10-3.
The Red Sox were just 46-35 at home last year (minus 6.3 units). They won 56 games there each of the prior two years. New York was 43-38 away last season.
New York went 4-1 in its first five games at Fenway last year before Boston finished 3-1 there. The ‘over’ was 8-1 in those games. The teams split 18 games overall.
Neither team is reporting any significant injuries.
Weather should mostly sunny and in the low 50s. The pitching matchup on Saturday is Buchholz vs. Ivan Nova and it will be Beckett vs. Sabathia on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball.
LA Dodgers open series at Padres
By: Brad Young
National League West rivals Los Angeles and San Diego begin a three-game series with Friday’s matchup. This contest will be a battle of southpaws as the Dodgers give the starting assignment to Ted Lilly (0-1, 7.71 ERA), while the Padres’ Clayton Richard (1-0, 4.50 ERA) gets the nod.
Los Angeles enters the 2011 campaign as a 15/1 selection to win the NL pennant, while San Diego has dropped to 40/1 behind its offseason youth movement. Friday’s game is scheduled to start at 7:05 p.m. PT from the Padres’ Petco Park.
Lilly suffered a setback in his first outing of the year Saturday against San Francisco as a 103 home underdog, 10-0. The 10 runs went ‘over’ the seven-run closing total. The 34-year-old lasted just 4 2/3 innings on 75 pitches (52 strikes), allowing four runs on six hits with a walk and three strikeouts.
The Dodgers are now just 2-6 in Lilly’s previous eight starts. The 13-year veteran signed a $33 million, three-year contract during the offseason.
Los Angeles started the year by taking two out of three games from San Francisco before losing two of three at Colorado.
The Dodgers continue their eight-game road trip after this series with three games at San Francisco.
San Diego won Richard’s 2011 debut versus St. Louis last Saturday as a 114 road underdog, 11-3. The combined 14 runs easily eclipsed the 8 ½-run closing total. The former Michigan Wolverines hurler was reached for three runs on five hits (one home run) with two walks and three strikeouts over six innings and 96 pitches (64 strikes).
The four-year veteran also contributed at the plate with two RBIs. Richard now has nine career RBIs, executing a squeeze bunt in the second inning to tie the game at two.
The Padres continue an eight-game homestand after this series with three games against Cincinnati. San Diego has seen the ‘under’ go 14-6-2 its last 22 home games, while the ‘under’ is 6-2 the past eight outings against NL West opponents.
The Padres went 10-8 against the Dodgers last season, and concluded the season 10 games ahead of them in the standings. The ‘under’ is 17-4 the previous 21 games in this series.
Lilly had two home starts against San Diego last season, going a combined 14 innings while yielding four runs on 10 hits (one home run) with a walk and 13 strikeouts. Los Angeles prevailed as a 101 home selection, 2-1, while losing as a 121 home underdog, 3-1.
The ‘under’ prevailed in both matchups.
Richard squared off against the Dodgers three times last year, pitching a combined 20 1/3 innings, surrendering just five runs on 22 hits with six walks and 18 strikeouts. San Diego won all three games as a 105 home selection, 6-1, as a 124 road underdog, 10-5, and as a 117 road ‘dog, 6-0. The ‘under’ went 2-1 during those three outings.
Friday Diamond Double
By Judd Hall
Friday marks the start of the weekend for most of the working stiffs out there. It also sets into motion some quality early series in Major League Baseball. We’ll see one of the better rivalries in sport get renewed, while we get a National League East showdown.
Yankees at Red Sox
It’s that time for all the folks at ESPN to fall over themselves for the Red Sox and Yankees facing off against one another. New York is coming into this game with no real reason to be worried. Boston, on the other hand, is giving its fans a reason to have a conniption after what was a very productive offseason.
The Red Sox will be sending John Lackey (0-1, 22.09) out to open this series. Lackey is looking to bounce back after a horrid start to the 2011 campaign. The former Angels hurler was smacked around for nine runs on 10 hits in less than four innings of work by Texas in a 12-5 loss in Arlington last Saturday. Lackey will need some help from Boston’s vaunted bats, who are slumping out of the gate with a .190 batting average.
Phil Hughes (0-1, 11.25) knows something of having a rough outing as well. The young pitcher barely lasted four innings against the Tigers, allowing five runs on five hits in a 10-7 setback that closed off a chance for series sweep last Sunday.
This is a game of firsts for both clubs. The Red Sox are making their home debut for the season and the Yanks are hitting the road for the first time in 2011. The ‘over’ is 4-1 for the Bombers so far, while the ‘over’ is 3-2 for the BoSox. These two teams split the head-to-head meetings 9-9 last season. However, the Yanks are 6-4 in 10 games at Fenway Park last year. Also, Boston is 6-3 in its last nine home day dates.
Phillies at Braves
There isn’t much surprise at the top of the National League East’s standing as the Phillies sit above all. That tends to happen when you have a load of awesome in your starting rotation. The Braves are supposed to be right up there in the hunt for a playoff spot after last year’s strong effort. And while that still is a possibility for Atlanta, the start to the year has been mediocre.
Philadelphia will send up its latest ace in the form of Cliff Lee (1-0, 3.86) on Friday night. Lee showed why the Phils came out of nowhere to snatch him up in during the winter against Houston on April 2. The southpaw tossed seven innings worth of work versus the Astros, allowing three runs on four hits and struck out 11 in a 9-4 win as a heavy $2.40 home favorite (risk $240 to win $100). Lee has three career starts against the Braves, going 1-1 with a 5.06 earned run average.
The Braves will hand the ball to Tim Hudson (1-0, 1.29) to get this series off on the right note. There is reason for the Bravos to be hopeful in this game. Hudson was dominating in his start against the Nationals, surrendering just three hits and a run in seven strong innings. The former Athletic showed strength last year against Philly, going 2-1 with a 3.79 ERA in three starts.
Atlanta went 8-10 against the Phillies last season. However, the Braves were 5-4 in nine battles with Philadelphia at Turner Field in 2011. The ‘under’ is 10-7-1 in those contests as well.
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