Friday's Double Play
By Judd Hall
Bettors are going to find something to like in baseball on Friday when there are 15 games on the slate to choose from. Let’s take a look at a pair of tilts in the American League that will whet everyone’s appetite.
Yankees at Rays – 7:10 p.m. EDT
New York (2-1, +153) opened its title offense with an impressive series win over the hated Red Sox. And in yet another case of the rich getting richer, I give you the success of Curtis Granderson. The former Tiger ripped up Boston pitching to the tune of a .333 batting average and a pair of home runs, including a 10th inning blast that led them to a 3-1 win.
Javier Vazquez will get the ball for the Yankees on Friday night. The right-hander is entering his second tour with the Yanks after a 15-10 record and 2.87 earned run average for Atlanta last season. Vazquez has had a decent results against the Rays in the past with a 5-4 mark and an ERA of 4.36 in 12 career starts. And he was very effective on the road last year for the Braves, going 10-2 in 16 starts.
Tampa Bay (2-0, +200) has opened the year with a pair of nice wins against the Orioles. In their 4-3 win on Wednesday night, the Rays got eight innings of four-hit ball from Matt Garza. And they also saw Rafael Soriano pick up his first save of the season to go along with the win he picked up on Tuesday.
The Rays will be looking for big things out of David Price this season. The former top pick was only 10-7 with a 4.42 ERA in his first season as a true starter for Tampa Bay. Price was definitely a sound choice to back at Tropicana Field, evidenced by a 8-3 mark with a 2.93 ERA.
Most betting shops have installed Tampa Bay as a $1.05 home “chalk” (risk $105 to win $100)with a total of nine. You’re not getting very much value in taking the Yankees as underdogs here at minus-102 on the money line.
New York controlled last year’s series with an 11-7 record, while seeing the ‘under’ go 10-8 in those tests.
Before everyone starts handing this game to the Yankees, keep in mind that Tampa Bay is 43-20 as a home favorite against AL East foes over the last two seasons.
Twins at White Sox – 8:10 p.m. EDT
As of Thursday afternoon, the White Sox have been installed as $1.35 home favorites with a total of nine. Bettors wanting to play on Minnesota (2-1, +146) can expect a plus-115 return.
The Twins have been lively at the plate so far this season as they rank third in the AL with 12 runs scored and a .235 batting average. Justin Morneau is hitting .400 with two homers and three RBI. Joe Mauer is has a pair of RBI as well, but just three hits to his name at the present.
Minnesota will be expecting Francisco Liriano to return to his 2006 form. Last year was a lousy run for Liriano, going 5-13 with a pudgy 5.80 ERA.
Chicago (1-1, -48) took one on the chin with Jake Peavy on the hill in a 5-3 setback on Wednesday against the Indians as a $1.50 home favorite. He actually held a 3-0 advantage before giving it all up in the fourth inning. Peavy pitched five innings, giving up seven hits and three earned runs for no decision. Paul Konerko did launch his second straight game.
John Danks will get the starting nod here for the White Sox. That might not be a good thing since he was just 5-7 with a 4.48 ERA at home last season.
The Twins controlled this head-to-head matchup last season with a 12-6 mark. The ‘under’ went 10-8 in those battles. Minnesota is only 5-4 at U.S. Cellular Field last season, but they’ve won four straight in the Windy City.
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MLB RoundUp For 4/9
By Dan Bebe
National League
Padres @ Rockies (-180) with a total of 9.5
Scott Hairston, of all people, is 5-for-7 with 2 HR and 6 RBI of De La Rosa;
Troy Tulowitzki is 2-for-3 off Clayton Richard with 1 HR and 3 RBI;
Todd Helton is 3-for-4 off Richard.
The crowd should be pretty amped, and we know De La Rosa had a home ERA over 5 last year with a road mark closer to 3. This line is inflated, so there's value with the Padres, but I just don't know if I trust Richard to keep them in this thing. I happen to like the Over more than the sides.
Braves (-130) @ Giants with a total of 8
In limited exposure to Sanchez, Yunel Escobar is 3-for-6, Brian McCann is 3-for-7, Chipper Jones is 2-for-5 with a HR and 3 RBI, and Nate McLouth is 3-for-7 with 1 HR;
Aaron Rowand is 7-for-15 off Tim Hudson, and Mark DeRosa is 3-for-6.
I'm a little amazed that Hudson is getting this kind of road love when he'll likely only go 5-6 innings max. Sanchez isn't great, he might not even be good, but the Giants were a very good home team last year, and have a solid bullpen. Lean to the Giants, no lean on the total.
Cubs @ Reds (-135) with a total of 9.5
Alfonso Soriano is a perfect 3-for-3 with a HR off Bailey, and Derrek Lee is 3-for-5;
Orlando Cabrera has faced Silva plenty, and is 9-for-his-last-22 with a HR.
These starters don't have many numbers against the current rosters here, and to be this isn't a bad price to get fading Silva and fading a Cubs team with a weaker-than-average bullpen. Slight lean to Cincy, and slight lean to Over, since it feels like the Reds will want to put up some numbers against a starter not on the vaunted Cardinals staff.
Nationals @ Mets (-171) with a total of 9
Ian Desmond is 3-for-6 with a HR off Mike Pelfrey, and Willy Taveras is 4-for-10 off him;
Josh Willingham is batting .412 with 2 HR and 6 RBI off Pelfrey;
Angel Pagan and Luis Castillo are each 3-for-4 off Garrett Mock.
Tough to trust either of these guys, though spacious CitiField should favor the pitchers just a little. I'm not sure I've got enough gusto favor either side or anything on the total here.
Dodgers (-120) @ Marlins with a total of 9
Casey Blake is 2-for-2 off Volstad with a HR, but that's about it for the Dodgers;
Jorge Cantu is 3-for-8 off Kuroda with a HR, and Cody Ross is 3-for-9 with a HR.
We've seen all too well what the Marlins bullpen can do, so you can understand the odds, here, but the Dodgers haven't been too impressive on the mound yet, either. Kuroda is a battler, so this game strikes me as one that could be close.
Phillies (-155) @ Astros with a total of 8.5
Bud Norris pitched well against Philadelphia in his only effort, holding them to a pair of solo shots.
We've seen the Astros offense without Lance Berkman - they are sad. I don't like heavy road chalk on the #4 starter, but maybe the Under is worth a look if Houston can't crack 3 runs?
Cardinals (-120) @ Brewers with a total of 9.5
Here comes the list - Ryan Ludwick is 4-for-12 off Dave Bush, Yadier Molina has homered 3 times in 16 AB, Albert Pujols is batting .353 off Bush, Brendan Ryan is 3-for-5, and Skip Schumaker is 6-for-15;
Ryan Braun is 6-for-15 with a HR and Craig Counsell is batting .421 off Lohse.
Lohse has better numbers against some of the "new" Brewers than he did against some of the folks in years past. I still think we may be in line for an Over, more than anything else.
Pirates @ Diamondbacks (-135) with a total of 10
Not much exposure, but Aki Iwamura is 2-for-3, Bobby Crosby is 3-for-5 with a HR, and Ryan Church is 3-for-6 off Lopez;
Conor Jackson is 2-for-3, Gerardo Parra homered in 1-of-3 AB off Morton, and Mark Reynolds is 2-for-5.
Charlie Morton has some of the most movement on his pitches of anyone on the Pirates staff, but he can be both amazing and awful. What do we know about Rodrigo Lopez? This line is probably fairly accurate - slight lean to the Over.
American League
Indians @ Tigers (-145) with a total of 9.5
Travis Hafner has the only HR off Porcello on the team;
Rick Porcello is 3-0, 1.80 ERA against Cleveland in just one season.
This is a pretty reasonable price for a solid young pitcher - the concern is that Detroit's pen is pretty beat up just after one series. Too good to be true? Potentially, but I lean Detroit. Cleveland's offense doesn't inspire fear in me, I think this sneaks Under.
Blue Jays @ Orioles (-135) with a total of 9.5
Vernon Wells is 3-for-6 off Bergesen;
Brad Bergesen is 1-0 against the Jays, 3.55 ERA;
Cesar Izturis, Nick Markakis, Nolan Reimold and Luke Scott all have a hit off Brandon Morrow in 1 or 2 AB.
This might end up being a better pitched game than people expect. I don't really "trust" either starter, though Bergesen at least has a little experience. I lean Under, believe it or not.
Yankees (-120) @ Rays with a total of 9
Alex Rodriguez is 3-for-9 with a HR off Price;
David Price is 1-0, 2.25 ERA against the vaunted Yanks;
B.J. Upton is 6-for-12 off Vazquez, and Carl Crawford is 7-for-19.
This, to me, shapes up as a pretty fantastic game - I like the Under, but I also think in an epic battle, David Price throws too many pitches early, and that makes the difference. I'd avoid the side.
Mariners @ Rangers (-145) with a total of 9.5
Franklin Gutierrez has 1 AB off Lewis, and he hit a 3-run HR;
Michael Young is 3-for-5 off Jason Vargas, and Taylor Teagarden, Chris Davis, and Nelson Cruz have each homered off Vargas.
I don't like either of these starters, and I happen to think Vargas's struggles with Texas play a large part in this line being relatively high. Lay off the side, maybe consider the Over, though the Mariners offense hasn't really impressed yet.
Red Sox (-160) @ Royals with a total of 9.5
Marco Scutaro is 5-for-8 off Davies with 2 HR;
Victor Martinez is 4-for-12 with a HR;
Kyle Davies is 1-0, 0.00 ERA against Boston - yep, I know...
Yuny Betancourt is 5-for-13 off Wakefield with a HR, and Rick Ankiel is 2-for-4.
Of all the guys in the League to have blanked the Sox, Kyle Davies? Yes, but the Sox added Scutaro, Davies-killer. The Royals bullpen makes this game a no-play on the side and on the total, though that pen certainly gives some credence to the Over.
Twins @ White Sox (-145) with a total of 8.5
Yikes to the Twins success against Danks: Michael Cuddyer is 16-for-30 with 5 HR and 11 RBI, Brendan Harris is 9-for-27, Jason Kubel is batting .318 with 1 HR and 9 RBI, Joe Mauer is batting .345, Morneau .308 with 3 HR and 9 RBI.
Francisco Liriano is 0-3, 7.52 ERA against the White Sox;
Alexei Ramirez is 3-for-5, and Paul Konerko is 3-for-9 with 2 HR and 6 RBI.
Liriano gave up 12 runs in 8.1 innings last year while trying to get some strength and command back, but everything you read says he's got the velocity back, and he's simply not a 7.52 ERA pitcher. This looks like a classic case of perception clouding value - lean to Minnesota. The Over is the obvious choice, but I'd be wary of oddsmakers bringing this line out under 9.
Athletics @ Angels (-150) with a total of 9.5
Extremely limited numbers on both sides, though we've seen flashes of brilliance from Gonzalez, and mostly just middling, consistently "okay" efforts from Palmer. I know the A's are bad, but not sure Palmer deserves to be a -150 cat. No real lean on the side. Something tells me these guys pitch above themselves early in the year, and I'm eying the Under.
Diamond Trends - Friday
By Vince Akins
Athletics at Angels – The Angels are 7-1 since April 23, 2009 when Matt Palmer starts vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $925 The Angels are 9-1-1 OU since June 18, 2007 as a home favorite vs a team that has won at least their last three games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $785 when playing the over.
Phillies at Astros – The Phillies are 1-10 OU since July 09, 2008 when J.A. Happ starts as a 140+ favorite versus a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $885 when playing the under. The Astros are 10-1-1 OU since August 24, 2007 at home after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $890 when playing the over.
Pirates at Diamondbacks – The Pirates are 9-33 since April 23, 2004 as a dog after a 5+ run loss and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $2040 when playing against. The Diamondbacks are 1-10 since April 09, 2004 at home after a win in which they drew 1 or fewer walks and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1155 when playing against.
Braves at Giants – The Braves are 8-0 OU since July 23, 2008 on the road after being shutout for a net profit of $800 when playing the over. The Braves are 1-10 OU since September 16, 2007 when Tim Hudson starts on the road after his team won the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $890 when playing the under.
Blue Jays at Orioles – The Blue Jays are 2-14 since May 13, 2005 on the road after a win in which they left 18+ men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1190 when playing against.
Mariners at Rangers – The Rangers are 8-0 OU since July 28, 2009 at home vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $800 when playing the over.
Yankees at Rays – The Yankees are 8-1 OU since June 18, 2004 when Javier Vazquez starts in the first game of a series for a net profit of $690 when playing the over.
Padres at Rockies – The Padres are 3-19 since September 10, 2008 as a dog after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent as a dog for a net profit of $1390 when playing against. The Rockies are 9-0 since June 21, 2009 when Jorge De La Rosa starts at home after his team won the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $900 The Rockies are 7-0 OU since July 08, 2009 when Jorge De La Rosa starts at home vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $700 when playing the over.
Red Sox at Royals – The Red Sox are 0-10-1 OU since April 08, 2004 when Tim Wakefield starts as a road favorite in April for a net profit of $1000 when playing the under.
Indians at Tigers – The Tigers are 13-0-1 OU since July 08, 2008 at home after a win in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $1300 when playing the over.