MLB News and Notes Friday 5/14

NATIONAL LEAGUE

St. Louis (20-15) at Cincinnati (19-15)

The top two teams in the National League Central kick off a three-game series at Great American Ballpark, with young Cardinals left-hander Jaime Garcia (3-2, 1.18 ERA) slated to oppose veteran Reds hurler Aaron Harang (2-4, 6.02).

Despite having ace Chris Carpenter on the mound, St. Louis fell to Houston 4-1 on Thursday, getting swept in the three-game home series by the lowly Astros while getting outscored 19-10. The Cardinals have lost four of their last five and seven of nine (2-4 on the road), and they’re in additional slumps of 4-9 against winning teams and 1-5 versus right-handed starters. On the bright side, Tony LaRussa’s troops have won 13 of 19 on Friday and 30 of 39 when opening a series.

The Reds have won a season-best five straight games – all against N.L. Central rivals – to pull within a half-game of St. Louis in the division race. Cincinnati completed a three-game sweep of the Pirates on Wednesday, cruising to a 5-0 win, its second straight shutout victory. The Reds, who have outscored their opponents 35-6 during their five-game winning streak, are on surges of 5-2 at home, 5-0 against left-handed starters and 10-1 at home versus southpaws.

This is already the third time these rivals have squared off in a series this season. St. Louis took two of three in each of the first two series, winning those four games by a combined score of 29-12. The Cardinals are 5-2 in the last seven head-to-head matchups.

Garcia has been incredible for St. Louis this season, giving up two earned runs or fewer and pitching at least six innings in all six of his starts. On Saturday at Pittsburgh, he allowed just one run on seven hits with two walks and seven strikeouts in six innings, but he was a tough-luck 2-0 loser. Despite Garcia’s outstanding personal results, the Redbirds are just 3-3 when he pitches, and Garcia is only 2-2 on the road despite a 1.88 ERA (five earned runs allowed in 24 innings).

Harang is 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA in his last three starts, including Saturday’s 14-2 home rout of the Cubs in which he gave up two runs on seven hits with one walk and nine strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings. The 32-year-old San Diego native has held eight of his last 10 opponents to three earned runs or fewer dating to last August, giving up two earned runs or fewer in five of those contests.

With Harang on the hill, Cincinnati is still mired in slumps of 4-11 overall, 2-7 at home (1-3 this year), 2-8 against N.L. Central foes, 1-4 in series openers and 0-5 on Friday. He’s 1-2 with a 5.18 ERA in his four home outings.

While tonight is Garcia’s first career appearance against the Reds, Harang has made 22 career starts against St. Louis, going 7-12 with a 4.57 ERA. Cincinnati is just 3-7 in Harang’s last 10 starts against the Cardinals (1-4 last five), including going 0-2 this season with the right-hander allowing seven runs (six earned) in 11 innings (4.91 ERA).

St. Louis is on a slew of “under” streaks, including 22-10-1 overall, 8-2 on the road, 11-4-1 within the division, 5-0 on Friday, 9-1 in series openers and 20-8-1 against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the under has cashed in all six of Garcia’s starts this season, including all four on the road. Meanwhile, Cincinnati carries “under” trends of 4-1 in series openers, 4-1-3 against winning teams, 10-4-4 at home against lefty starters and 8-3 when Harang starts at home. However, the over is 3-0-2 in the Reds’ last five home games and 13-2-1 in their last 16 after a day off.

Finally, the under is 3-0-1 in the last four series meetings, but 10 of the last 13 clashes in Cincinnati have hurdled the total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Minnesota (22-12) at N.Y. Yankees (22-12)

The Yankees shoot for their fifth straight home victory when the open a three-game series against the Twins, with A.J. Burnett (4-1, 3.40) taking the hill for New York opposite Twins right-hander Scott Baker (4-2, 4.57).

Minnesota concluded a nine-game homestand with Wednesday’s 3-2 victory over the White Sox, its third win in the last four games. The Twins have won seven of 10 overall, and they’re on further hot streaks of 39-19 overall, 35-17 against right-handed starters, 5-2 versus winning teams, 38-14 on Friday and 20-6 in series openers. However, they’ve lost 42 of 62 against the A.L. East and six of eight after a day off.

New York finished off a seven-game road trip with Thursday’s 6-0 loss at Detroit. The Yankees have followed up a six-game winning streak by losing four of their last five. However, the defending champs remain on upticks of 98-43 overall, 48-11 at Yankee Stadium (10-2 this year), 37-15 against the A.L. Central, 45-22 against southpaw starters, 40-14 at home versus left-handed starters and 5-2 on Friday.

The Yankees swept the Twins out of the best-of-5 American League Division Series last October, finishing the year 10-0 against Minnesota. This has been a completely one-sided rivalry, with New York winning 50 of the last 66 meetings overall and 27 of the last 32 in the Bronx.

Baker is coming off consecutive home wins over the Tigers (10-4) and Orioles (6-1). In Saturday’s contest against Baltimore, Baker delivered his strongest performance of the season, going a season-high eight innings while allowing just one run – a solo homer – and three hits with no walks and eight strikeouts. However, the Louisiana native has failed to get out of the fifth inning in two of his three starts on the road, where he’s 1-1 with a 5.74 ERA this season.

Baker has faced New York three times, going 2-1 with a 4.20 ERA. In his only appearance in the Bronx – at old Yankee Stadium in September 2006 – Baker gave up just a run on two hits in five innings en route to a 6-1 victory.

Burnett is looking to bounce back from his worst start of the year, as he got rocked for nine runs (eight earned) in 4 1/3 innings at Boston on Sunday, losing 9-3. In two starts prior to that, the veteran right-hander had allowed just one unearned run in 15 1/3 innings. New York is still 11-4 in Burnett’s last 15 starts overall, 17-4 in his last 21 home starts and 6-1 in his last seven against A.L. Central foes.

Only two of Burnett’s seven starts this season have come at Yankee Stadium, and he yielded just one unearned run in 14 1/3 innings, with New York crushing the Rangers 7-3 and the Orioles 4-1. Also, Burnett has a 2.81 ERA in his last four starts against the Twins (all Minnesota losses), including leading New York to a 4-3, 12-inning home playoff victory in October as he allowed just one run on three hits in six innings. Burnett is 2-1 with a 3.43 ERA in six career starts against Minnesota.

The Twins are on “under” runs of 4-0 overall, 20-4-2 against the A.L. Eas and 5-1-2 after a day off, but the over is 6-2-2 in Baker’s last 10 starts, including 3-1-1 on the road. Also, all four of New York’s games in Detroit stayed under the total, and the under is 16-7-1 in its last 24 home games, 8-3-1 in its last 12 against the A.L. Central, 10-2-1 in Burnett’s last 13 home starts , 6-1 in his last seven against the A.L. Central, 6-1 in his last seven Friday efforts and 8-3 the last 11 times Burnett has opened a series.

Finally, the under is 29-11-4 in the last 44 Twins-Yankees battles in the Bronx, and all three playoff meetings in October stayed under the total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER

MLB RoundUp For 5/14
By Dan Bebe

National League

Pirates @ Cubs (-200) with a total of N/A
Steve Pearce is 2-for-2 off Gorzelanny.
I don't care at all for the side in this one. Very expensive price to pay for Gorzelanny, but his strong numbers against Pittsburgh don't exactly make the Pirates a "live" dog. The total is interesting, if only because both pitchers have seen the other team only briefly, and both pitched well. If the wind's blowing in, the Under could potentially get some short, stubby legs.

Mets @ Marlins (-135) with a total of 9
Fernando Tatis is 2-for-4 off Sanchez;
Cody Ross is batting .346 in 26 AB off Perez, with 3 HR and 10 RBI.
Despite Oliver's control issues (and they're quite hefty), he has somehow been able to string together successful starts against the Marlins in his career. Florida is a very aggressive team, and that might play a role in his ability to wiggle through the lineup. I don't think there's enough info here to fade Ollie, and there's never enough info to warrant backing him. Pass.

Cardinals (-150) @ Reds with a total of 8.5
Skip Schumaker is 8-for-24 off Harang with a HR and 3 RBI;
Brandon Phillips is 1-for-2 with a HR and 3 RBI off Garcia.
Man, I really wish someone besides Aaron Harang was going for the Reds. Garcia's 1.18 ERA is creating a ton of value on the Cincinnati side in this one. The Reds are playing very strong baseball, the Cards are slumping badly, and if Harang can give Cincy 6 innings of decent hurling, they've got a nice shot to cash the underdog price. But Harang's 7-12 against the Cards in his career, and has a 4.57 lifetime ERA against them. It's a risky play, but it's the piping hot Reds or nothing, here.

D'backs @ Braves (-115) with a total of 9
Eric Hinske is the only player on either team with more than 2 AB against the opposing starter, and he's 3-for-6 off Kennedy.
Very little information to work with, here. What we do have, though, is Ian Kennedy on a bit of a pitching hot streak, Kawakami still struggling to find his first win of the season, the D'backs bullpen putting up some of the worst numbers in the League, especially recently, and the Braves trying their best to string together more than 4-5 good innings of baseball. This game has ugly written all over it, though the very short price to play a home team is somewhat tempting.

Phillies @ Brewers (-120) with a total of 9
Carlos Ruiz is 4-for-6 off Wolf with a HR and 3 RBI;
Shane Victorino is 3-for-9 with a HR and 2 RBI off Wolf;
Ryan Braun is 6-for-10 off Moyer with 2 HR and 4 RBI;
Craig Counsell is 2-for-2 off Moyer since '05;
Corey Hart is 4-for-11 off Moyer;
Rickie Weeks is 3-for-8 off Moyer.
That damn Brewers offense is so spotty, this game becomes unbearably difficult to handicap. Moyer is having a very nice season, already becoming the oldest pitcher in ML history to throw a complete game shutout, but if anyone is on base when Ryan Braun bats, the Brewers have a nice chance to score. Randy Wolf is right where he always is, consistently in the high 3's in ERA, and finds a way to usually go about 5-6 innings and keep his team in the game. This line is probably fair.

Nationals @ Rockies (-215) with a total of 8
Willie Harris was 4-for-6 off Jimenez before 2010, with 3 RBI;
Todd Helton is batting .444 off Hernandez with 4 RBI since '05;
Ryan Spilborghs ws 3-for-5 off Hernandez before 2010.
These two guys faced off in Washington in a game the Rockies won by a very narrow margin. Both pitchers threw the ball well, but Livan gave up one too many solo shots, and Jimenez was dominant, again. Ubaldo's ERA is still below 1 run, which at this point of May is incredible. He did suffer his first loss of the year to the Dodgers, but Washington has been much less of an issue than LA, for Ubaldo. This price is too high to back the home team, and you guys know how I feel about rematches, in general, but Jimenez might be so good that he becomes the exception to the rematch rule.

Dodgers @ Padres (-145) with a total of 7.5
Reed Johnson is 7-for-10 off Garland with 2 RBI;
Manny Ramirez is 7-for-16 off Garland with a HR and 5 RBI since '05;
Casey Blake is 8-for-27 off Garland with 2 HR and 6 RBI since '05;
Adrian Gonzalez is 4-for-7 with a HR off Ortiz.
This is likely to be the highest price you'd have to pay to back the Padres in this series, and that would be a direct result of Garland's 1.71 ERA. He's 1-1 against the Dodgers with a 2.77 ERA, but I just wonder if pitching for LAD last year hasn't given the Dodgers a slightly updated scouting report. Also, Garland has held Ethier in check in the past, but no one is holding Ethier in check this year no matter how tough. On the other side, Ramon Ortiz is a joke at this point in his career, but the Padres aren't exactly an offensive juggernaut. If this game stays close, I actually think that's a best case scenario for the Dodgers here in the opener. No real leans, though I want to lean Dodgers just because of the price.

Astros @ Giants (-140) with a total of 8.5
Lance Berkman is 3-for-9 with a HR off Wellemeyer;
Michael Bourn is 3-for-6 off Wellemeyer;
Pedro Feliz is 3-for-7 off Wellemeyer;
Hunter Pence is 4-for-10 off Wellemeyer with a HR and 3 RBI;
The current Giants are 9-for-17 off Paulino, with 2 HR and 9 RBI.
It was tough to break down individual performances for SF, since none have seen Paulino more than 4 times, but as a group, they've slapped him around. Amazingly, though, Wellemeyer actually has a higher ERA than Paulino. Felipe is 0-5 on the year, though, so he has a knack for losing. This price is about right, and with the Astros coming off a sweep in St. Louis, and the Giants coming off getting swept by the Padres, this isn't a spot I want to get involved with two bad pitchers.

American League

Red Sox (-140) @ Tigers with a total of 9.5
Bill Hall is 2-for-3 off Scherzer;
Magglio Ordonez is 3-for-5 off Buccholz.
Not a ton of data, here, though Buccholz did lose once to the Tigers. Scherzer's terrible start to 2010 (marked by two exceptionally bad outings against the Twins) is getting us a pretty hefty dog price against one of Boston's weaker starters. Unfortunately, I just don't trust Scherzer. He's all over the place, and Boston has shown they can beat up on lesser starters. The value here is with the Tigers, but I doubt there's enough there to warrant a play. If Scherzer starts to get things turned around, there will still be time to ride him later.

Indians @ Orioles (-142) with a total of 9
Grady Sizemore is 2-for-4 with a HR and 4 RBI off Guthrie;
Luke Scott is 3-for-7 with 2 RBI off Masterson;
Matt Wieters and Ty Wigginton are each 2-for-5 off Masterson.
Another game where we're not working with a ton of historical data, though it seems like Guthrie has handled the current Indians better than his 7.56 ERA against them would indicate. Masterson is 0-3 this year, and while he's pretty tough on righthanders, he hasn't really been able to put the pieces together yet this year. The price is too high on Guthrie, and not high enough to get me on Masterson. Pass.

Twins @ Yankees (-175) with a total of 9.5
Joe Mauer is 5-for-13 with 1 RBI off Burnett;
Delmon Young is 3-for-10 off Burnett;
This game appeared to be Liriano, but a late move has left me without my numbers. More to come on this one, though everyone knows the trouble the Twinkies have with NY...

Rangers @ Blue Jays (-135) with a total of 8.5
Vernon Wells is 1-for-2 with a HR off Harden;
The current Rangers are 5-for-13 off Cecil.
More games with very little historical data. Harden faced Toronto once this year already, and was hugely inefficient, throwing 90 pitches in only 3.2 innings, and despite striking out the world, he was yanked. That being said, he's been heating up, posting an ERA in the 2's over his last few starts, and will have a chance to try to throw more strikes and be more economical against the Jays here in Canada. Cecil is throwing well, but -135 almost feels too expensive for a mostly unproven commodity. I could make arguments either way, so I'm leaning towards a pass, but I'll keep digging.

Mariners @ Rays (-165) with a total of 8
Michael Saunders is 2-for-2 off Davis;
Ichiro is 2-for-3 off Davis.
And yet another game with minimal data to work with. Fister's ridiculous start to 2010 has him at 2-1, 1.71. Davis is emerging as a reliable starter for Tampa, going 3-2 with a 3.18 ERA so far this year. This price is too high for Davis, though Tampa seemed to start to get things rolling near the end of their recently-concluded road trip. That first game home is never easy, though, and with a dynamite (and red hot) starter like Fister on the other side, we have some value with the Mariners, here. They do need to hit, though, and that's always a scary proposition.

White Sox (-140) @ Royals with a total of 9
Paul Konerko is 9-for-27 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Meche since '05;
Alex Rios is 9-for-17 off Meche;
Mike Aviles is 5-for-16 off Buerhle;
Willie Bloomquist is 8-for-22 off Buerhle;
Billy Butler is 11-for-33 with 2 HR and 7 RBI off Buerhle;
Jason Kendall is 7-for-18 off Buerhle since '05;
Mitch Maier is 7-for-16 off Buerhle with 4 RBI.
Buerhle is coming off a decent start his last time out, but the ever-streaky left-hander just hasn't really done anything impressive since his first couple starts of the year. Plus, there's truly minimal value on the White Sox side going against Meche, a starter with an 8.24 ERA on the year and a sad 0-4 record. Fading terrible pitchers is great if your team wins, but generally a bad idea since the price is going to reflect that bad starter.

Athletics @ Angels (-110) with a total of 8.5
Rajai Davis is 8-for-26 off Saunders;
Eric Patterson is 4-for-5 off Saunders with 2 RBI;
Erick Aybar is 6-for-14 off Braden before 2010;
Mike Napoli is 4-for-9 off Braden with a HR before 2010.
This is a rematch game, the second of the night, to a game Braden and the A's won 9-4 back on April 11th. In that game, the pitchers fared pretty similarly, with Saunders giving up 4 runs in 6, and Braden allowing 3 in 6 innings. The Angels pen broke down, and the A's ran away with it. Now, this time around, in the same venue, Saunders is no longer a -150 favorite, and you have to think the 40 cent line move despite the game occurring in the same stadium gives some value to the Angels. Saunders only allowed 1 earned run in his last start, though the walks remain a problem. Still, the A's are a team without a ton of sock, so Saunders has a shot to wiggle out of trouble. Slight lean to Angels, with Braden off the perfect game, getting all the fanfare, and Saunders probably motivated to show up the young stud.

Diamond Trends - Friday
By Vince Akins

Athletics at Angels – The Athletics are 0-6 since May 16, 2009 on the road within 20 cents of pickem when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $610 when playing against. The Angels are 0-4 since August 25, 2009 at home when they are off two losses in which they never led for a net profit of $645 when playing against.

Rangers ay Blue Jays – The Rangers are 5-0 since May 06, 2009 on the road after an extra inning win for a net profit of $620. The Blue Jays are 7-0 since September 15, 2009 as an favorite vs a team that has a better record for a net profit of $700. The Blue Jays are 6-0 since April 19, 2009 at home after an extra inning win for a net profit of $605.

Diamondbacks at Braves – The Diamondbacks are 0-7 since April 13, 2009 vs a team that has won at least their last three games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $715 when playing against. The Braves are 11-0 since June 02, 2009 as a home favorite after a 5+ run win for a net profit of $1100. The Braves are 0-7 since April 26, 2009 when Kenshin Kawakami starts within 20 cents of pickem vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $710 when playing against.

Phillies at Brewers – The Phillies are 9-0 since September 08, 2009 after a one run loss for a net profit of $900. The Phillies are 4-0 since June 23, 2009 when Jamie Moyer starts as a dog after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $530.

Pirates at Cubs – The Pirates are 0-12 since April 28, 2009 on the road when they won the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $1200 when playing against.

Astros at Giants – The Astros are 0-6 since May 27, 2009 when Felipe Paulino starts after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $650 when playing against.The Giants are 7-0 since May 25, 2009 at home after a loss in which they drew 1 or fewer walks and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $765. The Giants are 6-0 since April 27, 2009 at home after a one run loss and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $650.

Mets at Marlins – The Mets are 0-7 since April 21, 2009 when Oliver Perez starts on the road vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Marlins are 7-0 since September 12, 2009 when they lost by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $820.

Indians at Orioles – The Indians are 0-6 since August 08, 2009 when Justin Masterson starts on the road after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Orioles are 0-6 since June 16, 2009 when Jeremy Guthrie starts at home in the first game of a series for a net profit of $660 when playing against.

Dodgers at Padres – The League is 8-0 since September 11, 2009 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which they left fewer than 10 men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $800. The Padres are 5-0 since April 16, 2010 when Jon Garland starts for a net profit of $520

Mariners at Rays – The Mariners are 0-6 since August 22, 2009 when Doug Fister starts on the road for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Rays are 5-0 since September 17, 2009 when Wade Davis starts after facing 25 or fewer hitters for a net profit of $500

Cardinals at Reds – The Cardinals are 8-0 since July 17, 2009 as a 140+ favorite after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $800. The Reds are 5-0 since August 07, 2009 as a dog after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $730.

Nationals at Rockies – The Rockies are 11-0 since May 06, 2009 when Ubaldo Jimenez starts as a 140+ favorite after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $1100. The Rockies are 9-0 since May 12, 2009 as a home 140+ favorite vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $900. The Rockies are 6-0 since October 08, 2009 when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $695.

White Sox at Royals – The White Sox are 0-4 since July 19, 2009 as a 140+ favorite when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $635 when playing against. The Royals are 0-7 since May 01, 2009 as a dog when their starter went at least eight innings in his last start for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Royals are 0-10 since May 14, 2009 when Gil Meche starts at home vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $1025 when playing against. The Royals are 0-7 since May 08, 2009 when Gil Meche starts in May for a net profit of $725 when playing against.

Red Sox at Tigers – The Red Sox are 11-0 since June 09, 2009 when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1100. The Red Sox are 0-6 since September 28, 2009 after a loss in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $860 when playing against. The Tigers are 6-0 since April 27, 2009 as a home dog and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $690

Twins at Yankees – The Yankees are 7-0 since April 09, 2009 when A.J. Burnett starts as a favorite vs a team that has averaged fewer than six strikeouts per game for a net profit of $700