Friday's MLB Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
As baseball season wraps up its first two months, and now truly heads into the summer, many interesting battles take place this weekend, with revenge on the minds of a handful of teams. The one matchup that will have a huge spotlight despite missing key pieces is the rematch of one of last season's biggest upsets in the National League Divisional Series between the Dodgers and Cubs.
Let’s take a closer look at four key contests and other quick shots down the line too.
L.A. Dodgers at Chicago -- 2:20 p.m. EDT
Seven months ago, Joe Torre's Dodgers walked right through Wrigley Field and abruptly ended the Cubs' hopes of making their first World Series since 1945 with a three-game sweep. This season, the Dodgers haven't missed a beat since the suspension of Manny Ramirez three weeks ago, winning 12 of 19, and still owning the best record in baseball. Some may say that the Dodgers have beefed up their record with 23 victories inside a mediocre NL West. Despite racking up all of those wins, the Cubs might as well be thrown in that mix, with Lou Piniella's team hovering around the .500 mark. Chicago is quickly heading backwards, after scoring five runs on a six-game road trip in which the Cubbies went 0-6 to the Cardinals and Padres. It doesn't get easier for the Cubs, facing L.A.'s best pitcher in Chad Billingsley. The Dodgers ace is 6-2, with an ERA of 2.82, while L.A. has won eight of Billingsley's 10 starts this season. Billingsley's numbers are better on the road than at home, with a miniscule ERA of 1.63 in four starts, all Dodger victories. Chicago fans will hope to see the good Ted Lilly at home. Lilly is a solid 3-1 at Wrigley, while possessing an ERA of 1.29, as compared to his disastrous 6.14 ERA on the road. The Dodgers are installed as a $1.10 favorite in the first installment of the weekend.
N.Y. Yankees at Cleveland -- 7:05 p.m. EDT
22-4. That's something the Yankees will surely remember as they head to Progressive Field for a four-game set with the Indians. After the Yankees jumped out to an early 2-0 lead on April 18, the Tribe responded with 14 runs in the second inning, and didn't let up their hitting barrage, tallying 25 hits in a 22-4 beatdown of the Bombers in the Bronx. Despite that score, the Yankees still managed to split the four-game series. How the times have suddenly changed. The Yankees got Alex Rodriguez back in their lineup, and now the guys in pinstripes look like a threatening offense once again. A-Rod has knocked out seven homers in 18 games, while Mark Teixiera is finally protected following a slow start, batting .428 over the last 14 games. The Indians showed signs of life for the first time in weeks (thanks Harry Doyle) by overcoming a 10-0 deficit in an 11-10 Memorial Day shocker over the Rays. The Tribe sends out the reigning Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee tonight to try and slow down the New York attack. Lee started the season slow, but now is just getting a raw deal from his bullpen. Lee has tossed eight straight quality starts, but the Indians have won just two times, while losing all six games by two runs or less. Lee has been involved in low-scoring contests in this stretch, going 'under' the total in six of the last seven. Andy Pettitte doesn't have great career numbers against the Indians (Yankees are 6-11 in his 17 career starts), but interestingly, New York has won five of those games in Cleveland. The Indians are listed as a $1.20 favorite, with the total set at 9.
Boston at Toronto -- 7:05 p.m. EDT
The Jays will look to exact some revenge at home against the Red Sox, after Boston pulled off a three-game sweep of Toronto last week at Fenway Park. Toronto should be happy to head home, after dropping all nine games on a road trip to Boston, Atlanta, and Baltimore. No good news and all bad news for the Jays, as Roy Halladay put Toronto in a position to win Wednesday with an 8-3 lead, but the Orioles rallied for a 12-10 victory in 11 innings. Toronto will have to try to salvage a game this weekend without the services of the former Cy Young Award winner, as Halladay is due up next Tuesday against the Angels. Casey Janssen gets the ball tonight for the Jays, opposed by knuckleball sensation Tim Wakefield. Janssen is coming off his first start of the season, allowing three earned runs and eight hits in six innings of work of a 4-3 loss at Atlanta. Janssen starts in place of Scott Richmond, who will skip in the rotation until next week. Meanwhile, in Wakefield's last 15 starts against Toronto, 13 have gone 'under' the total, while the Sox are 10-5 in this stretch. The Red Sox are a $1.15 road favorite, while the total sits at 9.5.
Minnesota at Tampa Bay -- 7:35 p.m. EDT
The defending AL Champion Rays were getting their season in order, winning seven of nine, and scoring 7.7 runs per game. This past Sunday, the Rays lost second baseman Aki Iwamura to a gruesome knee injury on a double-play ball, then lost to the Marlins in extra-innings. No problem, just one game. Tampa Bay thought they would end their 13-game losing streak in their personal house of horrors, Progressive Field, by building a 10-0 lead over the Indians. Nope, it all hit the fan as Cleveland rallied for seven runs in the ninth inning to stun the Rays, 11-10. Now, Joe Maddon's team has to face a Twins team that has all of the sudden been hitting the ball over the park. With the re-emergence of Joe Mauer behind Minnesota's plate, the Twins have won five of seven, while allowing at least four runs or more just once in this current stretch. The task will be tough for Minnesota, facing James Shields, who is basically lights out at Tropicana Field. The Rays are 22-7 in Shields' last 29 starts at home, despite Tampa Bay dropping his last two as substantial favorites against Cleveland and Oakland. Shields has struggled in his career against the Twins, dropping four of five starts, while going 'over' the total four times. Scott Baker gets the ball for Minnesota, as the Twins are 8-11 in his last 19 starts away from the Metrodome. The Rays are a substantial home favorite at a $1.50, with the total set at 9.5.
Other things to look for tonight:
-- Atlanta’s Jair Jurrjens goes for his third career win against the Diamondbacks. Jurrjens beat Brandon Webb and Dan Haren in the first two victories, and will be facing off against Jon Garland tonight. The Braves have gone 'under' the total in 14 of Jurrjens' last 20 road starts.
-- Braden Looper looks to continue his domination of the Reds, as the Brewers host Cincinnati. Dating back to his days in St. Louis, Looper is 6-2 against the Reds, including a perfect 5-0 mark at home. No easy task for the Brewers lineup, facing hard-throwing Johnny Cueto, who is 3-0 on the road, with a microscopic ERA of 1.35 and WHIP of 0.86 away from the Great American Ballpark.
-- Matt Cain can no longer blame his Giants lineup for lack of support. San Francisco provided Cain with 3.17 runs/game in 2008, but that number has jumped two runs up to 5.33 runs/game this season, with the Giants compiling a 5-3-1 'over' mark in Cain's nine starts. Cain struggled last season against the Cardinals, allowing 11 earned runs and 11 hits in 10.1 innings pitched in a pair of losses to St. Louis.
-- The Rockies are a perfect 4-0 to the 'over' when Jason Marquis starts at Coors Field this season, as the Rockies host the Padres. San Diego's offense is averaging a shade over seven runs a game the last four, while hitting the 'over' in all four games. Six of the last eight meetings have eclipsed the 'over' at Coors, with the winning team scoring at least seven runs on six occasions.
VegasInsider.com
Friday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
By Covers.com
Streaking
Jair Jurrjens (Atlanta Braves)
The attention of the baseball world is focused on the pitching performances of Zack Greinke and Roy Halladay in the American League while over in the NL, Jair Jurrjens quietly develops into one of the best arms in the majors.
The Braves righty has an ERA just over 2.00 has allowed more than two earned runs just once in his 10 starts this season. Jurrjens' early efforts were spoiled by a lack of run support but now Atlanta's bats are backing him up, scoring 18 runs in his past two appearances. He boasts a 4-2 record despite going six or more innings deep in seven of his 2009 starts.
"I can't say enough about (Jurrjens)," manager Bobby Cox told reporters. "He was outstanding. He deserves better. We're not getting him many runs, that's for sure."
Cliff Lee (Cleveland Indians)
After a bumpy start to the year, Cy Young winner Cliff Lee is beginning to look like his old self. The Indians lefty is just 2-3 in his past eight starts but has given up only 12 total runs in those 58 innings of work. In his most recent start, Lee allowed three runs in six innings but was dealt his third no decision of the season.
Run support has also plagued the Tribe's ace. Cleveland has provided under four runs per start for Lee, whose 3.04 ERA is the seventh-best in the American League.
"You see how guys handle situations like that," Lee told the media about the lack of production. "There is a right way to handle things. I just try to control what I can control. Everything else is pointless to worry about."
Slumping
Bradley Bergesen (Baltimore Orioles)
The Orioles young arm is finding life tough his first year in the bigs. Bergesen is winless since his April 21 debut and has allowed four earned runs in each of his last three starts. The rookie looked impressive to start his last game but fell apart in the middle innings versus the Nationals.
Bergesen doesn't have overwhelming stuff but that hasn't stopped him from going after batters. That recklessness has served up three home runs in his past three games and six total dingers in his seven starts this year.
Debuting
Tommy Hunter (Texas Rangers)
The Rangers are playing two Friday, forcing the club to call up pitcher Tommy Hunter from the minors after Matt Harrison was scratched due to a sore shoulder. The right hander pitched three games for Texas last season, going 0-2 with a disastrous 16.36 ERA.
Hunter is 1-2 with a 4.82 ERA in his four starts in Triple-A. His stay in the bigs will be brief. The Rangers are expected to send him back down after Friday's opener and call up a relief pitcher for the night game.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Cincinnati (26-20) at Milwaukee (27-20)
Two of the top three teams in the N.L. Central begin a weekend series at Miller Park, with the Reds’ Johnny Cueto (4-2, 2.37 ERA) scheduled to take the ball in the opener against the Brewers’ Braden Looper (4-3, 4.47).
Cincinnati brings a four-game winning streak into Milwaukee, including a three-game home sweep of the Astros that ended with Wednesday’s 6-1 victory. The Reds, who trail the Brewers by a half-game and the Cardinals by one full game in the N.L. Central standings, are also 6-1 in their last seven divisional contests, but they’ve lost 14 of their last 19 after a day off.
The Brewers have lost two in a row and five out of six – all against right-handed starters – and the big problem has been a struggling offense that’s produced three runs or fewer in all six contests (a total of 12 runs in all). In fact, Milwaukee has gone nine straight games without scoring more than four runs. Despite their recent funk – which comes on the heels of a 22-6 roll – the Brewers are still on hot streaks of 12-5 at home, 17-6 against the N.L. Central, 16-5 against teams with a winning record and 10-1 in series openers.
The Reds have taken three of the first five in the season series, and they’re 8-3 in their last 11 games at Miller Park.
Cueto got a no-decision in Cincinnati’s 4-3 11-inning victory over Cleveland on Sunday, giving up all three runs (two earned) in seven innings. The right-hander has pitched at least seven innings in seven straight starts, giving up three earned runs or fewer in six of those contests, and he’s posted a 1.98 ERA during this stretch. With Cueto on the bump, the Reds are on streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 against the N.L. Central and 4-1 on Friday, and they’ve won all four of his road starts this year, with the right-hander going 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA.
Looper surrendered five runs (four earned) on nine hits over six innings in Saturday’s 6-2 loss at Minnesota, and he’s got a 5.67 ERA in his last six starts. On the bright side, the Brewers are 4-1 in the right-hander’s five home outings this season, with Looper going 2-1 with a 4.66 ERA.
As a rookie last season, Cueto went 1-0 with a 2.79 ERA in three starts against the Brewers, giving up two runs in all three games, but Cincinnati lost two of those contests. Meanwhile, Looper is 5-3 with a 3.86 ERA and eight saves in 38 career games (eight starts) against the Reds, including a 1-1 with a 7.71 ERA in two starts this season.
The over is 4-0 in Looper’s last four divisional starts, but with Cueto pitching, the “under” is on runs of 6-2 overall, 11-2-1 on the road and 4-1 versus the N.L. Central.
The over is 4-1 in the five series meetings this year and 8-3 in the last 11 clashes in Milwaukee. Additionally, the Reds have topped the total in seven of their last eight games against the N.L. Central. However, the under is on streaks of 12-5-1 for Cincinnati on the road, 10-2-2 for Cincy after a day off, 4-1-1 for Cincy on Friday, 4-1 for Milwaukee overall, 10-4 for Milwaukee at home and 20-6-2 for Milwaukee after a defeat.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (28-20) at Toronto (27-23)
The freefalling Blue Jays look to snap a nine-game losing skid when they hand the ball to young right-hander Casey Janssen (0-1, 4.50) to begin a three-game series against the Red Sox and Tim Wakefield (6-2, 3.99) at the Rogers Centre.
Toronto capped a winless nine-game road trip – the first time that’s happened in franchise history – with a disastrous 12-10 loss at Baltimore in 11 innings on Wednesday, blowing an 8-3 eighth-inning lead and a 10-8 11th-inning lead. The Blue Jays have hit just one home run – Aaron Hill’s two-run shot in the 11th at Baltimore on Wednesday – in its last eight games and only two long balls during its losing streak which started with three losses in Boston on May 19-21.
On a positive note, Toronto has won four in a row and 13 of its last 17 at home, and it is 43-21 at home dating to last year. However, the Jays have lost eight straight games to A.L. East foes, and they’ve dropped seven of eight (and four in a row) to Boston since last season.
The Red Sox are coming off a four-game series at Minnesota, and they salvaged a split with Thursday’s 3-1 victory. Still, Boston is a middling 3-4 in its last seven games and 7-8 in its last 15 (3-6 on the road). The Red Sox are also 3-6 in their last nine games versus right-handed starters, but they’re on positive stretches of 14-4 against winning teams, 4-0 against the A.L. East and 22-8 in series openers.
Boston improved to 7-1 in Wakefield’s last eight starts with Sunday’s 12-5 rout of the Mets. The veteran knuckleballer did give up five runs on seven hits and four walks in six innings, but still picked up his sixth win of the season. Wakefield started the year with four consecutive quality starts, but he’s turned in just two such efforts in his last five trips to the mound, with his ERA jumping from 1.86 to 3.99 during this stretch.
Wakefield is 2-2 with a 4.83 ERA in five road efforts this season and 17-11 with a 3.68 ERA in 49 career appearances (39 starts) against the Blue Jays. One of those victories came on May 19, when he allowed five hits and a run in eight strong innings and picked up the 2-1 home win. The right-hander has gone at least six innings in 10 straight starts against the Jays, giving up three earned runs or fewer in seven of the last nine.
Janssen returned to the big leagues for the first time in 2009 on Saturday and lost 4-3 at Atlanta, yielding three runs on eight hits in six innings. Dating to last season, Toronto has lost eight of Janssen’s last nine starts, including the last five in a row, going 1-4 at home during this period. In his brief career, Janssen is 4-6 with a 3.36 ERA and two saves in 44 games (nine starts) at the Rogers Centre. Also, in eight career relief appearances against the Red Sox, he has pitched 7 1/3 scoreless innings.
The over is 9-2-1 in Wakefield’s last 12 starts overall, 7-1-1 in his last nine on the road and 6-2 in his last eight against divisional opponents, but the under is 5-1-3 in his last nine Friday starts, 18-6-2 in his last 26 outings versus the Blue Jays and 7-0-1 in his last eight starts in Toronto. Meanwhile, with Janssen pitching, the “under” is on runs of 5-2 overall, 5-0-1 at home and 4-1 on Friday.
The Blue Jays carry “under” trends of 5-2 overall, 8-3 against the A.L. East, 5-1 in series openers and 4-1 against righty starters. Boston is on “under” stretches of 10-3-1 overall, 6-1-1 on the road, 4-1-3 on Friday and 6-1-1 against right-handed hurlers. Finally, the under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in this rivalry, but six of the last eight battles north of the border have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
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Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
Friday, May 29
San Diego at Colorado (9:10 p.m. EDT). The surging Padres try for their 12th win in 13 games when they begin a three-game set against the slumping Rockies, who have lost five straight at home and fallen a season-low 10 games under .500.
STARS
Thursday
— Jason Varitek(notes), Red Sox, hit two solo homers in Boston’s 3-1 win over Minnesota.
— Dan Haren(notes), Diamondbacks, tossed eight sparkling innings, yielding two runs and seven hits in Arizona’s 5-2 victory over Atlanta.
— Victor Martinez(notes), Indians, drove in both of Cleveland’s runs in a 2-1 win over Tampa Bay.
— Josh Beckett(notes), Red Sox, pitched seven sharp innings to lead Boston to a 3-1 victory over Minnesota.
— Randy Wolf(notes), Dodgers, allowed one run and six hits in seven-plus innings to lead Los Angeles to a 2-1 win over the Chicago Cubs.
— Luke Scott(notes), Orioles, homered twice and had four RBIs in Baltimore’s 5-1 win over Detroit.
ALL OF YOU ARE OUTTA HERE
The Twins and Red Sox had their managers and catchers ejected during separate arguments in the seventh inning of Boston’s 3-1 victory Thursday. Minnesota catcher Mike Redmond(notes) was tossed by 32-year-old umpire Todd Tichenor, up from the Triple-A Pacific Coast League, for disputing a play at the plate. Manager Ron Gardenhire was ejected, too. In the bottom half, catcher Jason Varitek and manager Terry Francona of the Red Sox were kicked out after Tichenor called a close pitch from Josh Beckett a ball.
PUNISHED
Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano(notes) was suspended for six games by Major League Baseball, a day after his tirade during a game against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Zambrano said he won’t appeal the penalty, which included a fine. Barring rainouts, he is eligible to return next Thursday and start that night at Atlanta. Zambrano threw a baseball into left field, slammed his glove against the dugout fence and took a bat to a drink dispenser after he was ejected Wednesday.
NOT A BAD START AT ALL
Nolan Reimold(notes) homered again in the Baltimore Orioles’ 5-1 victory over the Detroit Tigers. The rookie has connected in three straight games and has five in 14 games since being recalled from Triple-A Norfolk on May 14.
SPEAKING
“Maybe next time we come in, we’ll have some candles and holy water. I have no good explanation for this.”—Rays manager Joe Maddon after his team lost its 17th consecutive game in Cleveland, the longest road losing streak against one team in club history. The Indians won 2-1 Thursday to complete a four-game sweep of the defending American League champions.
MLB Weekend Cheat Sheet
By Marc Lawrence
In this edition of the MLB Cheat Sheet, a guide designed to help you isolate a few key best bets, we focus on two key series on both the American and National League cards this weekend. Keep in mind that all pitcher records are ‘team starts’ unless noted otherwise. Enjoy…
Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs
Most Recent Series Result: Dodgers 5-1 last six games vs. Cubs
Most Recent Series Result: at the Site: Cubs 3-2 last five home games vs. Dodgers
Key Day/Month Stat: Cubs 14-3 home on Sundays
Best Arm in the Series: Cubs’ Dempster 5-1, 3.63 ERA last six starts vs. Dodgers
Worst Arm in the Series: Cubs’ Zambrano 1-3, 4.92 ERA home lifetime vs. Dodgers
Florida Marlins at New York Mets
Most Recent Series Result: Marlins 5-2 last seven games vs. Mets
Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Marlins 5-2 last seven away games vs. Mets
Key Day/Month Stat: Mets 5-0 home on Saturdays; Marlins 2-5 away on Saturdays
Best Arm in the Series: Marlins’ Johnson 6-1, 1.98 ERA lifetime vs. Mets; 3-0 away
Worst Arm in the Series: Mets’ Pelfrey 1-7, 6.12 ERA lifetime vs. Marlins
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
Most Recent Series Result: Rex Sox 7-1 last eight games vs. Blue Jays
Most Recent Series Result: at the Site: Blue Jays 8-3 last 11 home games vs. Red Sox
Key Day/Month Stat: Blue Jays 3-0 home on Sundays; Red Sox 0-4 away on Sundays
Best Arm in the Series: Red Sox’ Penny 5-0, 3.23 ERA lifetime vs. Blue Jays
Worst Arm in the Series: Red Sox’ Lester 0-3, 7.31 ERA away lifetime vs. Blue Jays
New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians
Most Recent Series Result: Indians 9-6 last 15 games vs. Yankees
Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Indians 4-2 last six home games vs. Yankees
Key Day/Month Stat: Yankees 9-3 away on Saturdays; Indians 1-8 home on Saturdays
Best Arm in the Series: Indians’ Lee 3-0, 1.84 ERA last three away starts vs. Yankees
Worst Arm in the Series: Yankees’ Wang 1-5, 9.58 ERA last six starts vs. Indians; Pettite 0-3, 3.08 ERA last three starts vs. Indians
Lilly, Billingsley Square Off In Wrigley Matinee
Dodgers vs Cubs odds - Friday, May 29, 2:20 PM ET
Chad Billingsley (6-2, 2.82) is coming off his worst outing of the season, as he allowed five runs (four earned) on nine hits over six innings of a 10-7 loss to the Angels at home, striking out six with only a single walk. The 24-year-old righthander is off to a splendid start, but he can have some control problems as he is fifth in the National League in strikeouts, but also sixth in walks. On the road, Billingsley has been sharp with a 2-0 mark in four starts and a 1.63 ERA while holding the oppsition to a .188 average. In his four career outings against the Cubs, including a pair of starts, Billingsley is 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA.
Ted Lilly (5-4, 3.77) gave up five runs for the third time this season in a 7-2 loss at San Diego, as he was tagged for eight hits over 6.1 innings. He must have been still upset by that game, because he was ejected for arguing a call in a game he wasn't even playing, a 6-1 wiin at Pittsburgh on Monday. After that, Lilly left the dugout and confronted the umpire, which will surely earn him a punishment. But until then, he'll get the call at Wrigley, where he is 3-1 in four starts with a 1.29 ERA. The 33-year-old southpaw is 2-0 in four games (three starts) against the Dodgers in his career with a 5.21 ERA.
Baseball odds should favor Chicago at home, and heading into Thursday's series opener, the two had split their last 10 meetings at Wrigley, and five have gone over the posted total. However, the Dodgers thumped the Cubs in last year's NLDS in Chicago, winning both games by a combined score of 17-5.