MLB News and Notes Friday 6/18

Friday MLB Tips
By Kevin Rogers

Another round of interleague action begins on Friday night with plenty of contenders facing off. The Subway Series resumes in the Bronx, while the Red Sox welcome back an old friend when the Dodgers invade Fenway Park. We'll start in the nation's capital with Stephen Strasburg going for his third win in three tries against the White Sox.

White Sox at Nationals - 7:05 PM EST

The hype is still there for Strasburg, who makes his third career start after beating the Pirates and Indians. The righty takes on a second interleague opponent in the red-hot White Sox, who have won six of seven.

Strasburg (2-0, 2.19 ERA) lasted only 5.1 innings in his last outing at Cleveland, but allowed two hits and struck out eight. The Nats gave the former top pick plenty of run support in a 9-4 victory, with each of first two wins coming by an average of four runs. Strasburg has struck out 22 batters in his two victories, while getting limited to 95 and 94 pitches, respectively.

It's amazing that Gavin Floyd (2-7, 5.64 ERA) has as many wins as Strasburg even though the White Sox righty has made 11 more starts. Floyd is coming off two of his best starts of the season, but was on the losing end of defeats to the Tigers and Cubs. In his last outing Sunday night at Wrigley Field, Floyd allowed just three hits and one run in eight innings, as the Sox fell to the Cubs, 1-0.

The White Sox are 7-1 the last eight interleague games on the road, including a 4-1 mark this season. The Nationals own a 6-2 record the previous eight at home, as Washington has won five straight games as 'chalk' at Nationals Park.

Mets at Yankees - 7:05 PM EST

The Subway Series went to the Mets the first time around back in May, as Jerry Manuel's squad took two of the final three games. The Mets have been surging of late, winning 10 of 11 to climb right back into the NL East race behind the Braves. The Yankees are rolling as well, with victories in seven of their previous nine.

The first game of the last series between these rivals featured Hisanori Takahashi and Javier Vasquez on the hill with the Yankees sneaking out a 2-1 victory. The two pitchers take the mound once again on Friday, with both hurlers coming off victories in their last outing. Takahashi (5-3, 3.48 ERA) silenced the Yankees and Phillies in each of his first two starts, going 12 scoreless innings, but splitting the two games. The Mets' southpaw beat the Orioles his last time out by tossing seven innings, giving up six hits and one earned run.

Vasquez (6-5, 5.43 ERA) started the season slow, but has delivered three consecutive quality starts, all Yankees victories. The veteran improved to 2-0 interleague play with a 9-3 home triumph over Houston, scattering six hits and three earned runs in seven innings of work. Four of Vasquez's last six starts have finished 'under' the total, after four of his five outings this season went 'over' the total.

The final two games of this series at Citi Field sailed 'over,' which has been a rarity when these clubs meet in Flushing. Seven of the last 10 meetings at Citi Field have gone 'under,' while seven of the previous eight matchups in the Bronx have finished 'over' the total.

Dodgers at Red Sox - 7:05 PM EST

Manny Ramirez makes his much-anticipated return to Fenway Park for the first time since getting traded in 2008 from Boston to Los Angeles. The Red Sox have won eight of the past 10 at home, while still trailing the Yankees and Rays in the AL East. Los Angeles couldn't pull off the sweep at Cincinnati, as the Dodgers are 2-3 the last five games after a four-game winning streak.

Two relatively unknown pitchers take the hill in the series opener with Felix Doubront making his big league debut. The southpaw went 2-1 at Triple-A Pawtucket, with an ERA of 1.08 in four starts. Doubront replaces the injured Daisuke Matsuzaka, as the 22-year old has spent the last six seasons in the Red Sox organization.

Carlos Monasterios (3-1, 2.98 ERA) had his worst Major League start his last time out, getting knocked around by the Angels in a 6-5 loss. The right-hander allowed seven hits and four earned runs in 2.2 innings of work, Los Angeles' first loss in his five starts this season. Monasterios won his only road start, a 5-4 decision at Colorado on May 28 as $1.40 underdog.

The Red Sox are 6-2 in interleague play this season, while winning all three series against the Phillies twice and Diamondbacks. The Dodgers finished last season at 5-4 on the road against AL opponents, as Los Angeles hits the road in interleague for the first time this season after home series versus the Tigers and Angels.

Twins at Phillies - 7:05 PM EST

Two playoff teams from a season ago meet up for the first time since 2004, as Minnesota makes its first ever appearance at Citizens Bank Park. The Twins took two of three from the Rockies at home, while the Phillies have struggled against AL foes, going 3-5.

A pair of pitchers that have struggled lately toe the rubber on Friday night as Nick Blackburn and Joe Blanton square off. Blackburn's (6-3, 4.96 ERA) last two road starts have been a disaster, giving up 20 hits and 10 earned runs in losses at Oakland and Seattle. The righty rebounded with a quality home start against the Braves his last time out, scattering six hits and two runs in seven innings, but Minnesota fell, 3-2. The loss to Atlanta was only the second in seven career interleague starts made by Blackburn.

Blanton (1-5, 7.28 ERA) has been unable to find his groove this season, dropping four straight decisions and allowing 23 ER and 38 hits in this span. The 'over' has turned into a solid play when Blanton starts, hitting in three straight starts, with at least 11 runs combined each time. The Phillies are just 1-3 in Blanton's four home starts this season, while going 0-4 in his four interleague outings since 2009.

Minnesota will be playing its first interleague road series this season at Philadelphia, as the Twins went 6-3 on the highway against NL opponents last season. The Phillies own a 2-10 record since last season at home in interleague play, including five losses as a favorite of at least $1.40.

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Tips and Trends

Los Angeles Angels at Chicago Cubs

Angels: Los Angeles continues to grind along in the American League West, as they have a winning record both at home and on the road this season. The Angels are 37-32 SU this year, trailing Texas by 2 games in their division. The Angels are +4.50 and +8.71 units both SU and on the RL respectively this year. Los Angeles had a short stay at home, as they were on the road for quite some time prior to their last series, before heading to Chicago to face the Cubs. Offensively, the Angels have been quite streaky this year in that they either tear the cover off the ball or they don't plate any runs at all. Lefty Scott Kazmir has been lights out of late, as he's a perfect 3-0 with an ERA of 2.12 and a WHIP of 1.35 in his past 3 starts. The Angels are 4-0 in their last 4 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Los Angeles is 9-2 in their last 11 interleague road games against a right-handed starter. The Angels are 11-4 in their last 15 games against a right-handed starter. Los Angeles is 4-0 in Kazmir's last 4 road starts. The Angels are 4-1 in Kazmir's last 5 starts overall.

Angels are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 6-1 in Angels last 7 interleague road games.

Key Injuries - SS Erick Aybar (knee) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side of the Day)

Cubs (-139, O/U na): Chicago has been getting some great pitching performances of late, as they've held their opponents to 2 runs or fewer in 4 of their past 5 games. As a result, Chicago has won 3 of their past 4 games overall to get to 30-36 on the season. The Cubs are now 17-16 at home this year, a record they need to continue to improve. As poorly as the Cubs started the season, they only trail the National League Central leading Reds by 6.5 games. Chicago is still a terrible team to back from a betting standpoint, as they are -15.41 and -7.89 units both SU and on the RL this year. P Carlos Silva will look to keep up his unbelievable season, as he is 8-1 with an ERA of 2.89 and a WHIP of 1.08. Silva is likely to be an All-Star this year, beyond anyone's wildest thoughts heading into the year. The Cubs are 7-1 in their last 8 games against a left-handed starter. Chicago is 3-9 in their last 12 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Cubs are 10-1 in Silva's last 11 starts overall. The Cubs are 7-1 in Silva's last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Chicago is 4-0 in Silva's last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.

Cubs are 2-8 last 10 interleague games against a team with a winning record.
Under is 7-3 last 10 home games against a team with a winning record.

Key Injuries - 3B Aramis Ramirez (thumb) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4

New York Mets at New York Yankees

Mets: New York has literally been the Amazing Mets of late, as they have been the hottest team in baseball for the past month. The Mets have won 6 straight, and 9 of their past 10 games to come within a half game from the National League East lead. The Mets are 37-28 overall this year, trailing Atlanta by just a half game in their division. The Mets have already won 2 of 3 games earlier this season against their crosstown rivals. New York has been mixing great offensive performances with great pitching performances of late. The Mets have held their opponents to 1 run or fewer in 5 of their past 10 games, while their offense has scored 26 runs in their past 3 games. Lefty P Hisanori Takahashi is 5-2 with an ERA of 3.48 and a WHIP of 1.33 this season. The Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog. New York is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games against a right-handed starter. The Mets are 6-0 in their last 6 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Mets are 9-3 in their last 12 games against a team with a winning record.

Mets are 7-0 last 7 interleague games.
Under is 6-0 last 6 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%.

Key Injuries - LF Jason Bay (thigh) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 5

Yankees (-180, O/U 9.5): New York has been playing great baseball of late, as they have caught the Rays for the best record in baseball. The Yankees are 41-24 SU this year, thanks to an impressive 23-8 home record. New York is +5.55 and +10.46 units both SU and on the RL respectively this year. The Yankees have scored 29 runs in their past 4 games, proving how dangerous their offense can be. Right-hander Javier Vazquez has really turned his season around of late, as he is a perfect 3-0 with an ERA of 2.57 and a WHIP of 0.76 in his past 3 starts. Vazquez still has a season long ERA over 5.00, but if he keeps his current form that will change quickly. The Yankees are 58-16 in their last 74 games as a home favorite. New York is 43-16 in their last 59 home games against a left-handed starter. The Yankees are 54-21 in their last 75 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. New York is 4-1 in Vazquez's last 5 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200. The Yankees are 4-1 in Vazquez's last 5 starts.

Yankees are 58-23 last 81 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200.
Over is 8-3 last 11 interleague games as a favorite.

Key Injuries - C Jorge Posada (foot) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 6 (OVER - Total of the Day)

MLB RoundUp For 6/18
By Dan Bebe

National League

Brewers @ Rockies (-158) with a total of 9
Joe Inglett is 4-for-6 with 3 RBI off Hammel;
Troy Tulowitzki is 2-for-2 off Parra.
This price is a bit high, though I'm not sure how folks can make a legitimate case that the Brewers are the right side. The Rockies are very tough at home, and Hammel has been one of the hottest pitchers in baseball over the last 2-3 weeks. He hasn't allowed a run in either of his last 2 starts (over 15.1 innings), and allowed just a single tally in the start prior. Hammel is 2-0 with a 4.91 ERA against Milwaukee, so not great, not terrible, but Parra is 0-1 with a 9.53 ERA against the Rox, and pitching in Coors is usually more intimidating for the visitors. Leans: Rockies

Interleague Play

Angels @ Cubs (-155) with a total of N/A
Bobby Abreu is 9-for-17 with a HR and 7 RBI off Silva since '05;
Howie Kendrick is 5-for-10 off Silva;
Hideki Matsui is 4-for-11 off Silva since '05.
I know Carlos Silva has been a shining beacon of consistency for the Cubbies, but should anyone on the Cubs be a -155 favorite anywhere in the US right now? I'm inclined to think not, especially against an Angels team that can really put the wood to it. Kazmir's issue is always going to be that he can't go deep in games even when he's on, but that being said, he's been better in his last 3 starts. This game is going to be closer than people think, and I wouldn't touch the Cubs. Leans: Angels

Diamondbacks @ Tigers (-200) with a total of 9.5
Adam LaRoche is 2-for-2 with a HR off Galarraga.
The sheer price on this one makes it, basically, a no-play. Galarraga, to his outstanding credit (and I really mean this) has pitched pretty well since one of the most emotional "non"-moments in MLB history, and Detroit continues to be a total Jekyll and Hyde team home and road. They're at home now, they're hitting the ball well, and they're facing one of the worst pitching staffs in the League. Detroit could very well win this one by a large margin, but I probably wouldn't get involved. Leans: None

White Sox @ Nationals (-185) with a total of 7.5
Adam Kennedy is 4-for-7 off Floyd.
Gavin Floyd looks like he's starting to remember it's June. He's given up just 2 earned in his last 2 starts, combined, over 14 innings of work. Of course, his team couldn't get him wins in those games, but you can see he's turning the corner. That being said, the hype is going to end up on the other side of this one, with Strasburg. He'll likely give up one long fly, since that 100 mph fastball supplies a lot of power to a team that already swings for the fences, and while I think there's already some value fading Strasburg, he's doing more for a "home field" advantage, that I think we can account for. Let's wait until his value is at an ultimate low, and fade him. For now, I'm not touching it. Leans: None

Indians @ Pirates (-110) with a total of 8
The Pirates are just a mess, right now. They'd lost 10 in a row going into last night's action (and by the time this is posted, we'll probably know how that game turned out). Do they even remember what it was like to win a game? Cleveland got spanked by the red-hot Mets, but prior to that series, the Indians had actually been playing a bit better. They've been getting let down by their pitching. The offense has been fully alive even during the losing streak, so you have to believe that the Indians remain on the verge of breaking through for another few wins. This is an interesting game in that if the Pirates are going to win one, it's probably going to be behind Maholm. If the Indians can win one on the road, Carmona isn't a bad guy to put out there. Leans: Indians

Twins @ Phillies (-130) with a total of 10.5
Delmon Young is 4-for-11 off Blanton.
You know, if Joe Blanton wasn't pitching like a total turd, I'd like the Under, here. Blanton has a career 4.44 ERA against the Twinkies, but he's been able to pitch pretty well against their biggest bats. Unfortunately for that potential lean, Blanton has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball over the last couple weeks. Blanton's given up 23 runs in his last 4 starts, all Phillies losses, and his season ERA has climbed into the 7's. On the other side, Nick Blackburn is just the normal Twins starter. ERA in the 4's, keeps his team in the game in, usually, 5 of every 6 starts, and the team wins quite a few of those because they're good. Leans: Twins

Mets @ Yankees (-180) with a total 9.5
Alex Cora is 4-for-8 off Vazquez, interestingly.
The Mets are rolling, lately, though we know how tough the Yankees can be at home. Yes, they get shut down by Jamie Moyer and Kyle Kendrick (currently), but the Yanks can wake up at any moment. This should be a pretty good game, and there's zero doubt that the Mets are the value side, and if you've got the bankroll to play every game with any value, you should probably consider hopping on the Mets to keep their win streak going. Heck, I might end up putting a quarter or half-unit on it, myself, in that special kind of non-premium sort of way. Leans: Mets

Giants @ Blue Jays (-125) with a total of 8.5
Jose Molina is 2-for-6 with a HR and 3 RBI off Zito;
Edwin Encarnacion is 2-for-5 with a HR and 5 RBI off Zito.
This is something of a scary line, if you're a fan of the Giants and Zito. I know Morrow has been coming on very, very strong, but to see Zito, who was a pretty big favorite early on this season, now a slight dog to a guy with an ERA almost 2 runs higher, the oddsmakers are expecting some Jays money. At the same time, Zito is coming off a nice start against one of his nemeses, the Oakland A's, so it's not like he's trending down. I will admit, though, pitching in the cozy confines of AT&T Park definitely treats Zito better than those nasty road mounds. Leans: Blue Jays

Dodgers @ Red Sox (-148) with a total of 10
I think it's safe to say we have no data to work with, here. You have to think that the Dodgers are going to have a tiny bit of value in this series, but this opener, with two pitchers that might give 5 innings, well, this isn't the type of game I like to put money on. Why? Well, I feel like this game is a true "risk", since there are a number of variables that can't be perfectly handicapped. Both teams have decent pens, the Dodgers perhaps a tad better, but we might see 15 runs. Who knows? Manny might get pummeled with strange objects, but at least he knows how to play left in Fenway. Leans: Over

Rays (-160) @ Marlins with a total of 9
Kelly Shoppach is 6-for-10 off Robertson since '05;
Jason Bartlett is 0-for-24 off Robertson, and I almost can't believe my eyes;
This game has a ton of question marks, too. Garza has pitched rather poorly in each of his last 4 starts, including his last effort against these very same Marlins, but in Tampa. Garza allowed 4 runs in 5.2 innings, though Tampa did go on to win that one 6-5 over Ricky Nolasco. Here, he faces Nate Robertson making his first start in about 2 weeks, yet another question mark. No reason to take a chance. Leans: None

Royals @ Braves (-185) with a total of 9
This game is only interesting because Bannister is looking to bounce back off an awful start in Cincinnati, and Derek Lowe is coming off a bounceback game of his own. Lowe pitched brilliantly against the Twins, a very strong, and lefty-heavy club, and now faces one of the best-hitting teams in baseball in Kansas City. The Royals are going to continue to be a nice value almost no matter where they play, but I think there's a good reason this line is high. Lowe's been solid after a bad start, and the Braves are just beating everyone. They completed a series win over the Rays with yesterday's win, and they just keep steamrolling right along. Yes, the dog has value, but no, it's not a good enough shot. Leans: None

Rangers (-135) @ Astros with a total of 9
Ian Kinsler is 9-for-12 off Wandy Rodriguez.
I feel like people are going to jump on the Over in this game, but I'm not sure there's much left in the value department. Feldman and Wandy are both having brutal seasons, and in terms of small rays of hope, you have to give the slight nod to Feldman. He's coming off 6 innings of Houdini-like escape acts against the Brewers, but he got through them and he gave his team a solid opportunity to win. Does it mean he's figured things out? I doubt it. The Brewers are just that bad at home, so I wouldn't overreact. If we could truly count on Wandy to do some damage against the Rangers, I'd back the home team, but as it stands, and with his awful numbers this year not seemingly getting any better, I pass. Leans: None

Athetics @ Cardinals (-255) with a total of 8
Hah, if you guys think I'm even considering a play on this side, you haven't been reading this blog every day, or at least not too closely. So, do I care to venture an opinion on the total? Well, Mazzaro has decent enough stuff, but Big Leaguers that see his good breaking ball once can usually adjust to it, and he's just not refined enough to use a 3rd pitch reliably. Carpenter is dominant, we know that, though the Cards have actually lost his last 2 starts, and he's never been all that great against the A's. No thanks! Leans: None

Orioles @ Padres (-165) with a total of 7
Brian Matusz has pitched very well his last 3 starts, though he's on the Orioles, so you know that means the results have been less than charming. I still think this team is completely radioactive, though this line is awfully low for a Baltimore game. I mean, this is only 10 cents higher than the game against the Giants rookie, Joe Martinez. They did, of course, win that one. Still, I can't do it. I can't. We've been having great success backing teams that have a reasonable chance to win on any given night rather than firing a shotgun in the dark. LeBlanc, by the way, has rebounded with 2 solid starts off a few rough ones, so fading him is not necessarily recommended, either. Leans: None

Reds @ Mariners (-150) with a total of 6.5
Miguel Cairo is 5-for-7 off Cliff Lee;
Brandon Phillips is 4-for-11 with a HR and 4 RBI off Lee;
Scott Rolen is 7-for-13 with a HR and 2 RBI off Lee since '05.
I really, really want to back Cincinnati in this one, as Cliff Lee has a lifetime 5.77 ERA against the Reds, but man has Cueto been bad, lately. Cueto has given up 17 runs in his last 3 starts, and while I think he has the arsenal to get out there and shut down a weaker-than-average offensive team like the Mariners, I'm not sure taking him against Lee is the right time. Lee has poor lifetime numbers against the Rangers, too, and he's crushed them this season, so who knows what those lifetime numbers mean. Leans: Reds

Diamond Trends - Friday
By Vince Akins

Rangers at Astros - The Rangers are 7-0 since April 25, 2009 when Scott Feldman starts vs a team that lost their starters last two starts for a net profit of $745. The Astros are 5-0 since June 10, 2009 when Wandy Rodriguez starts after giving up 2 or more home runs for a net profit of $520.

Giants at Blue Jays - The Giants are 0-8 since August 03, 2009 on the road when they won by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $905 when playing against.

Royals at Braves - The Royals are 5-0 since May 02, 2009 when Brian Bannister starts as a road dog vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $875. The Braves are 10-0 since June 09, 2009 when Derek Lowe starts as a favorite after the team won their last two games for a net profit of $1000. The Braves are 9-0 since May 10, 2010 when they came back from a deficit to win in their starter's last start for a net profit of $950.

Athletics at Cardinals - The Athletics are 4-0 since July 11, 2009 as a road 170+ dog after a loss in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $720. The Cardinals are 10-0 since July 17, 2009 as a 140+ favorite after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1000. The Cardinals are 6-0 since July 17, 2009 when Chris Carpenter starts as a home favorite vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $600.

Angels at Cubs - The Cubs are 0-7 since June 17, 2009 after scoring 3 runs or less and winning and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $910 when playing against.

Reds at Mariners - The Reds are 6-0 since September 06, 2009 when Johnny Cueto starts after more strike outs than hits allowed and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $750. The Mariners are 8-0 since June 25, 2009 as a home 140+ favorite when they are off a win in which they scored in at most two separate innings for a net profit of $800.

Rays at Marlins - The Rays are 8-0 since September 17, 2009 on the road when they are off a loss in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs for a net profit of $800. The Marlins are 7-0 since May 27, 2009 as a 140+ dog when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $1185. The Rays are 0-6 since May 26, 2009 when Matt Garza starts as a favorite after the team won his last two starts for a net profit of $775 when playing against.

White Sox at Nationals - The White Sox are 0-9 since August 10, 2009 when Gavin Floyd starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The White Sox are 0-7 since May 13, 2009 on the road when their starter went at least eight innings in his last start after a win for a net profit of $715 when playing against.

Orioles at Padres - The Padres are 5-0 since September 09, 2009 when Wade LeBlanc starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $610.

Twins at Phillies - The Twins are 6-0 since April 17, 2009 when Nick Blackburn starts within 20 cents of pickem when the bullpen has allowed at least one run for two straight games for a net profit of $650. The Phillies are 8-0 since April 27, 2009 when Joe Blanton starts as a favorite after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $800.

Indians at Pirates - The Indians are 5-0 since April 24, 2010 on the road after a loss in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $860. The Indians are 0-5 since April 12, 2010 when Fausto Carmona starts in the first game of a series for a net profit of $500 when playing against. The Pirates are 5-0 since May 20, 2009 when Paul Maholm starts when he is off a start in which their team scored first and lost for a net profit of $625.

Dodgers at Red Sox - The Dodgers are 9-0 since June 13, 2009 after a loss in which they had at least five more team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $1010.

Brewers at Rockies - The Brewers are 6-0 since May 06, 2009 when Manny Parra starts on the road after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $840. The Brewers are 5-0 since July 16, 2009 on the road after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $710. The Rockies are 10-0 since July 06, 2009 as a 140+ favorite when their starter went at least eight innings in his last start for a net profit of $1000.

Diamondbacks at Tigers - The Tigers are 0-8 since April 17, 2009 after a 5+ run win and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $860 when playing against. The Tigers are 0-6 since April 21, 2009 when Armando Galarraga starts after throwing more than 100 pitches at home for a net profit of $690 when playing against.

Mets at Yankees - The Mets are 0-8 since June 17, 2009 as a road dog after a win in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $800 when playing against.