MLB News and Notes Friday 6/25

Friday MLB Tips
By Kevin Rogers

The final weekend of interleague takes place this weekend with rivals getting their last taste of one another. The Windy City battle heads to the South Side with the streaking White Sox hosting the cold Cubs. At night, a showdown of the Lone Star squads in Arlington, while the I-70 series gets going in Kansas City. We'll start in the Big Apple with the red-hot Mets taking on the Twins.

Twins at Mets - 7:05 PM EST

The toast of New York is not only the Yankees at this point, as the Mets are making a push to the top of the NL East standings. Jerry Manuel's club sits a ½ game behind Atlanta after the Mets have won 14 of their past 17 games. The Twins have been very inconsistent in the month of June, going just 9-12.

Mike Pelfrey (9-2, 2.69 ERA) looks to bounce back after allowing five earned runs in his last start against the Yankees, equaling the amount of runs he had given up in his previous four outings combined. Pelfrey has won three straight starts at Citi Field with victories over the Phillies, Padres, and Yankees. The Mets own a 7-1 record when the right-hander starts at home, as New York is outscoring opponents by two runs/game in the eight home outings.

The Twins counter with Kevin Slowey (7-4, 4.58 ERA), who is coming off a pair of disastrous starts against the Braves and Phillies. Slowey yielded 16 hits and 12 earned runs in just 6.1 innings, as the right-hander has seen the 'over' cash in three straight outings. The 26-year old was bailed out by a five-run rally in the ninth inning at Philadelphia, as Minnesota came back with a 13-10 victory in extra-innings.

Each team has fared very well in series openers with the Twins going 16-8 and the Mets owning a 15-9 mark. Minnesota has struggled mightily on the road with a 5-11 record the previous 16 on the highway, while New York is riding a 12-1 run at Citi Field.

Phillies vs. Blue Jays - 7:05 PM EST

This series is being held in Philadelphia due to the G-20 Summit in Toronto over the weekend, but the Jays will bat last if that means anything. Unfortunately, Roy Halladay will not pitch in front of the Toronto fans this weekend as the ace sees his former team for the first time since getting dealt to the Phillies in the offseason.

Halladay (8-6, 2.43 ERA) has dropped three straight starts, as the ex-Cy Young Award winner is just 1-3 since tossing a perfect game at Florida on May 29. The Phillies' offense has not helped Halladay, plating only 12 runs in his last seven starts (2-5). Halladay has won just one of his last five starts at Citizens Bank Park, while six of his previous eight outings have finished 'under' the total.

Jesse Litsch (0-1, 6.75 ERA) bounced back from a horrible start at Colorado to beat San Francisco, 3-0 last Saturday. Litsch scattered three hits in seven scoreless innings to outduel Matt Cain and pick up a home underdog victory. In Litsch's only road start of the season against the Rockies, the righty gave up seven runs in 2.1 innings of a 10-3 setback at Coors Field.

The Jays grabbed four of six meetings from the Phillies last season, including all three games at Citizens Bank Park. Philadelphia has won seven of its past 10 interleague games following a 1-4 start against the American League.

Tigers at Braves - 7:35 PM EST

Atlanta returns home off a dreadful showing at Chicago, dropping all three games to the streaking White Sox. The Braves do host a Tigers squad that has also been struggling of late, losing their fifth straight road series. Kris Medlen takes the mound for the Braves, going for his fifth win of the season.

Medlen (4-1, 3.33 ERA) has been the benefactor of great run support recently, with the Braves averaging 5.8 runs/game his last five starts (three straight 'unders'). The right-hander doesn't throw many pitches, but Medlen has pitched into the seventh inning in four of his previous five outings, all without throwing over 100 pitches. The last two home victories that Medlen has started came against the Royals and Pirates, as the Tigers rank 19th in the league in runs scored (315).

Left-hander Andrew Oliver makes his Major League debut for the Tigers, days after getting called up from Double-A Erie. Oliver compiled a 6-4 mark with an ERA of 3.61 at Erie, while striking out 70 in 14 starts. The ex-Oklahoma State southpaw replaces the recently demoted Rick Porcello, who was sent down to Triple-A Toledo.

The Braves have been nearly unbeatable at Turner Field recently, capturing 14 of their past 15 home contests. Six of Detroit's previous eight games have finished 'over' the total, as the Tigers have tallied just nine runs the last three games.

Cardinals at Royals - 8:10 PM EST

The I-70 showdown takes place on the west side of Missouri as the teams meet for the first time this season. The Cards took five of six meetings last season, including all three at Kauffman Stadium. Zack Greinke has faced St. Louis just once since 2008, beating the Cardinals, 4-1 at Busch Stadium two years ago as a short road favorite.

Greinke (2-8, 3.94 ERA) has pitched better of late, following a rough stretch in which the reigning Cy Young Award winner lost four straight starts. The Royals' ace has delivered consecutive quality outings against the Reds and Braves, striking out 17 and walking none. The 'over' has cashed in Greinke's last four starts, while the 'over' has hit in five of six outings.

Former Royal Jeff Suppan (0-2, 6.81 ERA) has not performed well since getting picked up by the Cardinals in mid-June. Suppan has allowed 11 hits and three earned runs in 8.2 innings of two starts against the Mariners and A's. The veteran's numbers have taken a nose-dive this season, not winning once in four starts with the Cards and Brewers.

The Cardinals own a solid 18-6 mark in series openers this season, while the Royals are just 6-9 in interleague play.

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Tips and Trends

Minnesota Twins at New York Mets

Twins: Minnesota limps into New York after being swept by the Milwaukee Brewers. In fact, the Twins have lost 5 of their past 7 games overall. Despite their recent struggles, the Twins still lead the American League Central division. Minnesota is 40-32 SU overall this year, including 17-19 SU on the road this year. The Twins are +1.84 and -5.22 units both SU and on the RL this year. Minnesota has struggled of late with their pitching, as they have allowed 6 of their past 7 opponents to score at least 5 runs. The Twins are 44-17 in their last 61 interleague games against a right-handed starter. The Twins are 35-16 in their last 51 interleague road games against a right-handed starter. Minnesota is 4-11 in their last 15 games as a road underdog. Minnesota is 1-6 in their last 7 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.

Twins are 12-4 last 16 interleague games as an underdog.
Over is 6-1 last 7 during game 1 of a series.

Key Injuries - SS J.J. Hardy (wrist) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 3

Mets (-145, O/U 8.5): The climb to the top has been a long one, but the Mets have made it. New York is tied for the National League East lead, and they have the 2nd best record overall in the National League. New York is 41-30 SU, including 26-10 SU at home. The Mets are +12.21 and +23.58 units both SU and on the RL this season. New York keeps cashing tickets whether listed as the favorite or the underdog this season. P Michael Pelfrey will take the mound tonight, as the Mets will try to win their 12th game in 16 starts by Pelfrey this season. Pelfrey is 9-2 with an ERA of 2.69 and a WHIP of 1.24 this year. The Mets are 5-0 in their last 5 games against the American League Central. The Mets are 4-0 in Pelfrey's last 4 starts during game 1 of a series. New York is 4-0 in Pelfrey's last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Mets are 8-2 in Pelfrey's last 10 home starts against a team with a winning record. New York is 20-6 in Pelfrey's last 26 home starts with the total set between 7 and 8.5 runs.

Mets are 10-1 last 11 home games against a team with a winning record.
Under is 17-4 last 21 during game 1 of a series.

Key Injuries - LF Angel Pagan (upper body) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side of the Day)

New York Yankees at Los Angeles Dodgers

Yankees (-190, O/U 8.5): New York has the best record in baseball, by a full 2 games. The Yankees are 45-27 SU this year, with a winning record in just about every scenario you can find. New York has been very consistent all season long, proof of experience and professionalism. The Yankees are +3.72 and +9.52 units both SU and on the RL respectively this year. Even though their offense has struggled a bit of late, the Yankees are still the class of the majors this year. Ace P C.C. Sabathia will take the ball tonight, as he is 8-3 with an ERA of 3.68 and a WHIP of 1.18 this season. The Yankees are 2-5 in their last 7 games as a road favorite of -151 to -200. The Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 games following an off day. New York is 12-3 in Sabathia's last 15 starts during game 1 of a series. New York is 20-6 in Sabathia's last 26 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Yankees are 11-4 in Sabathia's last 15 starts as a road favorite.

Yankees are 10-4 last 14 interleague road games.
Under is 9-1 last 10 road games against a team with a winning record.

Key Injuries - LF Marcus Thames (hamstring) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 6 (OVER - Total of the Day)

Dodgers: What in the world happened to Los Angeles? The Dodgers have lost 6 consecutive games after briefly leading the National League West standings. 5 of the 6 losses for the Dodgers have come as the listed underdog. Los Angeles has struggled offensively of late, scoring only 3 runs in their past 4 games combined. The Dodgers are 38-33 SU this year, including 23-13 SU at home. Los Angeles is -2.08 and -5.08 units respectively both SU and on the RL this year. The Dodgers are happy to be back in their own stadium, as they've played each of the last 9 games on the road. The Dodgers are 13-3 in their last 16 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%. The Dodgers are 4-11 in their last 15 interleague home games against a left-handed starter. Los Angeles is 6-21 in their last 27 interleague games against a left-handed starter.

Dodgers are 0-4 last 4 interleague home games against a team with a winning record.
Over is 7-1-1 last 9 games a home underdog of +151 to +200.

Key Injuries - C Brad Ausmus (back) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4

MLB RoundUp For 6/25
By Dan Bebe

National League

Padres @ Marlins (-120) with a total of 8.5
Not a ton of historical data, but you guys know how I feel about Chris Volstad. I happen to believe he's one of the more overrated starters in the NL, and after one blazing hot stretch a while back, seems to actually draw some money. I can't completely explain it; it's almost like bettors hear that a tall righthander is starting for Florida, and they just bet it without making sure it's Josh Johnson. Volstad does not go deep in games, so with the Florida pen, he's always going to have trouble racking up wins, and he's 1-1 with a 7.27 ERA lifetime against the Padres. I would be all over San Diego if Clayton Richard wasn't coming off, perhaps, his worst start of 2010 - he did go 6 innings, but got lit up by a weak Baltimore club. Does he bounce back? If you like the Padres, you sure hope so. Leans: Padres

Interleague Play

Cubs @ White Sox (-150) with a total of 9
Alfonso Soriano is 5-for-14 with 2 HR and 5 RBI off Peavy before 2010;
Alexei Ramirez is 3-for-7 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Zambrano before 2010.
Jake Peavy is rolling, and so are the White Sox, winners of 9 in a row, now. Peavy went 7 innings against these Cubs about 10 days ago and allowed 2 runs in a game the Sox would win 10-5. Peavy tossed a complete game shutout against the Nats in his last start. So, this is a no-brainer to bet the Sox, right? Well, I wouldn't be so quick. This is a pricier mark for them, and Zambrano is actually coming off a strong start. If Big Z gets hot, this one could get closer to a coin-flip. I know the White Sox look like the easy choice, but the value isn't there in this one. Leans: None

Phillies (-255) @ Blue Jays with a total of 9
Raul Ibanez is 4-for-9 off Litsch;
Alex Gonzalez is 3-for-10 with 3 RBI off Halladay.
Not surprisingly, the Jays haven't seen a ton of Halladay from the batter's box, but this game poses an intriguing spot. You have to think that either the Jays get completely shellacked, since Litsch isn't too impressive, or they win. A lack of middle ground jumps out to me, considering the level of emotion that should surge through Halladay's veins as he returns to the site of so many of his dominant starts. I would think the fans should be pretty receptive, but I guess we don't know. Halladay was pretty loyal to Toronto while they piddled around the AL East cellar for so long. Leans: None

Nationals (-115) @ Orioles with a total of 9
Zero historical data in this one, and that's a shame, considering it's a nice short line to try to exploit. J.D. Martin, 0-3 but sporting a decent 3.55 ERA, has been a bit unlucky in a few of his starts. He really only had one bad outing in his 4 starts for Washington, so I think we can rightly expect he'll go 5-6 innings and give up 1-3 runs. Arrieta, probably something similar. You have to give the nod to the superior pen, which isn't a runaway, but Washington's back end has certainly been more reliable. Leans: Nationals

D'backs @ Rays (-200) with a total of 9
Hank Blalock is 4-for-12 with 2 RBI off Jackson.
Here's a little reunion of sorts, as Jackson heads back to pitch against the Rays, against whom he is 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA. Still, we got another glimpse at what that D'backs pen can do to a potential winner when they imploded again in the finale against the Yanks. I would love to back Arizona, believe me, and Niemann hasn't been quite as sure-handed as he was earlier this year, but this is a longshot for a reason. Leans: None

Indians @ Reds (-180) with a total of 9.5
Jhonny Peralta is 6-for-20 with a HR and 2 RBI off Harang;
Orlando Cabrera is 6-for-17 off Laffey.
Aaron Laffey, somehow, is 0-3 with an 11.05 ERA against the Reds. You wouldn't even think he's had a chance to post numbers that awful, but here we are. Harang, conversely, is 3-2 with a 2.84 ERA against Cleveland, lifetime. This line is too high to back the Reds, there's no real edge here in the total, and Laffey could either get 3 double play grounders or give up 2 multi-run jacks. No thanks. Leans: None

Twins @ Mets (-145) with a total of 8.5
Orlando Hudson is 4-for-7 with 2 RBI off Pelfrey;
Jeff Francoeur and Jason Bay each have a HR in just 3 AB off Slowey.
Both of these pitchers are actually coming off subpar starts, though Slowey's was certainly uglier. The Twins righty went just 1.2 innings against the Phils, giving up 7 runs. Pelfrey allowed 5 runs to the Yankees, but went 7 innings, so it was more the quick-strike sort of runs for the Bombers. Pelfrey should bounce back, and the Twins are struggling right now, and I just wonder if this isn't still a deal even though the line is a little more expensive than we're used to. Pelfrey's numbers, especially at home, have been pretty ridiculous. Leans: Mets

Tigers @ Braves (-165) with a total of 9
There's a very good reason this line is as high as it is - the Tigers are sending a kid making his ML debut to the mound on the road. It's always nice to try to back rookies making their debut at home, since they have the crowd support and pitch above themselves, but the road is a different story, especially for a clunker of a road team. Medlen hasn't been that great lately, after a nice start, and this price is way too high for him. It's rookie going nuts on adrenaline, or nothing. Leans: Tigers

Astros @ Rangers (-320) with a total of 9.5
Nelson Cruz is 2-for-4 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Moehler.
You know the rule, when it gets up over 300, put a quarter unit on the dog and hope for a miracle. Leans: None

Mariners @ Brewers (-165) with a total of 9.5
Um, what? Dave Bush as a -165 favorite against a team that just had a 6-game win streak snapped? This is the ultimate in "who am I hitting against" Interleague games, though Bush has seen the Mariners just a couple times. Still, I have to think that oddsmakers know what they're doing just a tad with this line, and that the expectation of Rowland-Smith getting hammered is going to play itself out. It is intriguing, though, to take anyone as that large a dog against Dave Bush. Leans: Mariners

Cardinals @ Royals (-155) with a total of 9
Jose Guillen is 3-for-8 off Suppan;
Aaron Miles is 3-for-5 off Greinke.
Jeff Suppan is getting zero betting love, and that's unfortunate. I would have enjoyed fading him, given his poor arm strength (low pitch count) and the Royals ability to hit, but at this price? I doubt it. Greinke is 2-2 with a 5.24 ERA against the Cardinals in his career, so it's by no means guaranteed that he'll shut them down, and I'd think the Over is probably a better price than either side. Leans: Over

Rockies @ Angels (-160) with a total of 8
Jason Giambi is 4-for-10 with an RBI off Weaver;
Melvin Mora is 5-for-11 with 3 RBI off Weaver.
This should actually be a fun one. The Rockies continue to play very well at home, but not quite as well on the road, and the Angels are hot as heck right now. Of course, they got a little lucky in one of the wins over the Dodgers, and we'll know more about their momentum after the late game ends from last night, but I'd say there's a decent shot that Weaver pitches a strong game. He leads the AL in strikeouts, I learned this week, so there's an interesting stat. Leans: Angels

Pirates @ Athletics (-180) with a total of 8
Ryan Doumit is 4-for-11 with 2 HR off Sheets.
Ben Sheets has been a fairly reliable starter for Oakland, but this is just a silly line. The Pirates are fighting hard with Baltimore for "worst in the Bigs" honors, and they've now moved into radioactive-land with the O's. So, let's not worry too much about the side, here. The total of 8 is largely based on the Pirates pathetic offense, and largely on the dimensions of the ballpark, but both guys could easily give up 3 runs, and then we're hovering awfully close to that total. Leans: None

Yankees (-185) @ Dodgers with a total of 8.5
Robinson Cano is 4-for-11 with a HR and 2 RBI off Padilla;
Derek Jeter is 4-for-10 off Padilla since '05;
Manny Ramirez is 6-for-10 with a HR and 4 RBI off Sabathia since '05.
Oh dear. The Dodgers, slumping about as deep as they can, host the Yankees in what's billed as an epic series from days of yore. Of course, the Dodgers had a series with Boston, and got swept, but they are indeed better at home than on the road. Still, Interleague is not kind to LA, and Padilla, at 1-2 with a 7.65 lifetime ERA against New York doesn't really feel like the guy to turn things around. C.C. has a career 1.29 ERA against LA, and he's been making a habit, lately, of winning "bigger" games. Leans: None

Red Sox @ Giants (-125) with a total of 8.5
Aubrey Huff is 5-for-16 with a HR and 2 RBI off Wakefield;
Aaron Rowand is 5-for-9 with 2 HR and 2 RBI off Wakefield;
Nate Schierholtz is 3-for-3 off Wakefield.
Tim Wakefield, and this surprised me, is 1-0 against the Giants with a ridiculous 10.24 ERA. What? Sanchez is 0-0 with a 9.00 ERA against Boston, so it's not a particularly pretty matchup. Of course, Sanchez has been quite good at home, and Wakefield has been much better on the road. I would have to think that the thick air and winds in San Francisco are going to make that knuckler do all kinds of insane things. Still, I think there's a pretty good reason the Giants are favored against one of the best teams in the Bigs. Leans: Giants

Diamond Trends - Friday
By Vince Akins

Pirates at Athletics – The Pirates are 0-8 since July 11, 2009 on the road after a one run loss for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Athletics are 7-0 since April 13, 2009 at home after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $750

Phillies at Blue Jays – The Phillies are 5-0 since May 07, 2010 when they are off a win in which they never trailed and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $500. The Blue Jays are 6-0 since May 15, 2010 at home after a 5+ run win for a net profit of $660.

Tigers at Braves – The Tigers are 0-7 since April 07, 2010 on the road after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $765 when playing against. The Braves are 7-0 since May 08, 2010 when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $741.

Mariners at Brewers – The Mariners are 0-8 since May 02, 2010 after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $875 when playing against. The Mariners are 0-7 since May 06, 2009 on the road after an extra inning loss for a net profit of $740 when playing against. The Brewers are 6-0 since April 21, 2010 after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $725

Yankees at Dodgers – The Yankees are 5-0 since April 13, 2010 after a win in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $510.

Red Sox at Giants – The Giants are 8-0 since May 25, 2009 at home after a loss in which they drew 1 or fewer walks and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $865.

Padres at Marlins – The Padres are 8-0 since August 28, 2009 on the road after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits for a net profit of $1030. The Padres are 6-0 since September 06, 2009 after a loss in which they did not draw a walk for a net profit of $745. The Marlins are 4-0 since June 03, 2010 when they are off a loss in which they scored in at least four separate innings for a net profit of $520.

Twins at Mets – The Twins are 5-0 since May 08, 2010 after a loss in which they drew 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $500. The Mets are 6-0 since May 17, 2010 after a loss in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $700.

Nationals at Orioles – The Nationals are 0-5 since May 02, 2010 after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings for a net profit of $510 when playing against. The Orioles are 0-6 since May 15, 2010 when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit for a net profit of $635 when playing against.

Astros at Rangers – The Astros are 0-5 since April 16, 2010 when they are off a win in which they never trailed and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $560 when playing against. The Rangers are 8-0 since May 07, 2010 at home after a win in which they had 12+ hits for a net profit of $815.

Diamondbacks at Rays – The Diamondbacks are 0-5 since May 25, 2010 on the road and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $500 when playing against. The Rays are 5-0 since April 27, 2010 after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $540.

Cardinals at Royals – The Cardinals are 6-0 since April 09, 2010 after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $600.

Cubs at White Sox – The Cubs are 0-8 since June 17, 2009 after scoring 3 runs or less and winning and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1030 when playing against. The Cubs are 0-6 since April 09, 2010 after a win in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $615 when playing against. The White Sox are 5-0 since June 10, 2010 after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $575.