NL Tip Sheet
By Judd Hall
Baseball’s final weekend before the All-Star break gets underway with a full slate of 15 games. It all starts off with a traditional Friday afternoon tilt in Wrigley Field between bitter rivals. We’re also going to see a battle for supremacy in the Keystone State and another contest between a pair of teams trying to stay relevant to the playoff race.
Cardinals at Cubs – 2:20 p.m. EDT
The Cubs are finding out just how hard it is to repeat success in Major League Baseball this season. Chicago was able to capture the National League Central title in 2008, but are just breaking even at the halfway point of this year’s campaign. The Cubbies come into this series having dropped their last two games, scoring a single run in each contest.
Chicago has been lucky enough to see Aramis Ramirez come back swinging after an extended stay on the disabled list. Ramirez is hitting .250 since returning to the Cubs’ lineup on July 6, but has yet to push a run past the plate. That shouldn’t be anything unusual for fans and bettors since they’ve scored more than two runs just twice in their last six games. That futility at the plate has helped the ‘under’ go 8-3 in Chicago’s last 11 contests.
The Cubbies will send Rich Harden (5-5, 5.35 ERA) out to the mound to snap this little skid. Harden will no doubt be looking to redeem himself in this outing. He gave up seven earned runs on eight hits in two innings of what Harden called “batting practice” on July 4 at home against the Brewers. Gamblers would do well to either fade or take a pass on Chicago here as they’re 2-4 in his last six starts.
It’s not like things will be much better for St. Louis sending Brad Thompson (2-5, 4.92 ERA) out to start. Tony LaRussa installed Thompson into the starting rotation because of injuries to Kyle Lohse and Todd Wellemeyer. All the young right-hander has done is drop four of his last six starts with an earned run average of 5.44. The Cards aren’t exactly helping him out at the plate, scoring just two runs in his last three starts.
The Cubs have done well against St. Louis at the friendly confines, going 6-3 in their last nine home tilts against their heated rivals. The ‘under’ is on a 4-1-1 run in the last six head-to-head meetings.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants has installed the Cardinals as $1.20 road favorites (risk $120 to win $100) with no total as of yet.
St. Louis has won its last four games in which they were listed as a road “chalk.”
Pirates at Phillies – 7:05 p.m. EDT
The Pirates will be closing out their nine-game road trip in Philadelphia this weekend and it’s not a moment too soon for them. Pittsburgh have come up short in four of its first six tilts on this trek.
Pittsburgh’s biggest issue has been its offense. The Bucs are hitting a paltry .211 with 25 runs scored over the last week. In their 5-0 loss at Houston on July 8, the Pirates pulled in five hits, but they were all singles.
The Bucs will try to get off the schneid with southpaw Zach Duke (8-7, 3.28 ERA) getting the starting nod. Duke holds the team lead in victories, despite losing three of his last four starts this season.
Citizens Bank Park has been a house of horrors for the Phillies for much of 2009. However, Philadelphia is on a roll right now by winning five of its last six at home.
Philly will be sending Joe Blanton (5-4, 4.69 ERA) to the mound on Friday. Blanton will be looking to build up some momentum here giving up just four hits in 7.1 innings of work last Sunday in the Phils’ 2-0 win over the Mets. The Philadelphia right-hander has only faced the Pirates once during his career. Blanton tossed seven innings of one-hit ball, but the Phils lost the game at home 2-0 last August.
Philadelphia has owned this series when they play at home, posting a 7-2 mark over the last three series. The ‘under’ is 7-2 during that stretch as well.
Pittsburgh has lost six straight games that Duke has started on the road. The ‘under’ is 5-1 in those matches.
The Phillies have been tabbed as heavy $1.60 home favorites with the total setting up at nine.
Reds at Mets – 7:10 p.m. EDT
You aren’t hearing much about them, but the Reds are very much alive in the NL Central race. They sit just 3 ½ games out of first place right now, which is pretty good considering they have lost four of their last six matches.
What’s more impressive about Cincinnati’s success this year is that they’re doing it without production out of Bronson Arroyo (8-8, 5.85 ERA). Cincy’s No. 2 starter had a fantastic 2008 campaign with a 15-11 mark. He started this year on a high as well with a 7-3 record. Since the calendar turned to June, however, Arroyo has hit a rough patch by going 1-5 with an ERA of 7.11.
Normally you might just say “What the hell, I’ll play him today…at least on the run line.” The problem is Cincinnati has covered the run line as an underdog just once in the six times they were listed as such at the betting shops.
New York appear to be sending out Fernando Nieve (3-2, 2.73 ERA) in what could be his swan song as a starter…at least for the time being. Nieve was placed in the rotation for Oliver Perez, who was put on the DL back on May 2 with a bad right knee.
Perez’s replacement provided some solid efforts in winning his first three decisions. However, Nieve has dropped his last two starts while giving up six earned runs in the process.
LVSC has made New York a $1.20 home fave with the total coming in at 8 ½.
All the signs point towards the Mets walking away with a series opening “W.” New York has won three of the last four games versus the Reds. And they are 5-2 against Cincy in the Big Apple since 2007. Also, Nieve has won his last two starts at Citi Field, giving up a combined six hits and one earned run.
vegasinsider.com
Friday's Late-Night Action
By Brian Edwards
Gamblers have three late-night options when it comes to wagering on baseball Friday night after 10:00 on the East coast. Let’s take an in-depth look at all three of those contests, starting with the Bronx Bombers showdown against the Angels.
**Yankees at Angels**
--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened New York (51-34) as a minus-120 road favorite with a total of nine flat (minus-110 either way). As of early this morning, most books had the Yankees as minus-115 ‘chalk’ with the total adjusted to 9 ½.
--Joe Girardi’s club pulled into a first-place tie with the Red Sox in the American League East by virtue of Thursday’s 6-4 win at Minnesota. The Yankees improved to 25-18 on the road with the victory in a pick ‘em affair. Mark Teixeira snapped a 23-game homerless streak by belting his 21st of the season. Alex Rodriguez’s 1-for-3 performance “upped” his batting average to .247.
--Los Angeles (46-37) comes into this series trailing Texas by one-half game for the AL-West lead. The Angels will give the ball to Joe Saunders (8-5, 4.44 ERA), who is 4-2 with a 3.43 ERA in nine home starts. The left-hander is 1-1 with a 7.63 career ERA against the Yankees, who are 16-9 record against southpaws.
--Joba Chamberlain (4-2, 4.04) will toe the rubber for the Yankees, who bring a three-game winning streak to Southern California. The hard-throwing righty has held the Angels scoreless in just three career innings against the club. Chamberlain has been his best on the road, compiling a 4-0 record and 2.74 ERA.
--The ‘over’ is 42-38 overall for the Yankees, but they have watched the ‘under’ cash at a 22-19 clip in their road games. Meanwhile, the Angles have seen the ‘over’ go 43-35 overall, 21-18 in their home outings.
--Although L.A. maintains a 24-18 home record, the team lost back-to-back home tilts against the Rangers before Thursday’s off day.
**Rangers at Mariners**
--Most books are listing the Rangers as minus-120 favorites with a total of 8 ½ ‘over’ (minus-115).
--Seattle (44-41) pulled to within 3 ½ games of the division-leading Rangers with last night’s 3-1 home win as a minus-180 home ‘chalk.’ Felix Hernandez worked eight strong innings en route to his ninth victory. The righty scattered three hits and one earned run, while Franklin Gutierrez did all the work at the plate with a three-run homer in the eighth.
--Texas (47-37) fell to 19-20 on the road with last night’s loss at Safeco Field. In bounce-back mode, the Rangers will turn to Scott Feldman (7-2, 3.91) as he takes aim at his eighth victory.
--Feldman is 4-1 with a 4.30 ERA on the road this year. The right-hander got a no-decision in his only career start against the Mariners, giving up just one earned run in 6 1/3 innings of work.
--Brandan Morrow (0-3, 5.05) will get the starting nod for the M’s, who are 23-17 at home this season. Morrow began the season in the bullpen, where he collected six saves. He’s coming off his longest start of the year, working six innings and taking a no-decision in Sunday’s loss to Boston. The righty fanned seven Red Sox batters.
--The ‘under’ is an MLB-best 50-32 overall for the Rangers, 23-16 in their road games.
--The ‘under’ is 50-34 overall for Seattle, 23-16 in its home outings.
--Check out Texas OF Andruw Jones, who hit just .158 with three homers after signing with the Dodgers before the 2008 campaign. Jones, perhaps the best defensive center fielder not named Willie Mays in MLB history, has 14 homers and 34 RBI’s after popping three dingers Wednesday.
**Padres at Giants**
--Bettors are probably looking to fade San Diego (35-50) in this spot. The Padres have been absolutely horrendous on the road, compiling a 12-30 record. They have lost five in a row after last night’s 9-3 loss at San Francisco. Tim Lincecum took a no-hitter into the seventh inning on the way to upping his record to 10-2 on the year.
--Most spots are listing the Giants as minus-155 favorites with a total of 8 ½ ‘over’ (minus-115). Gamblers can back San Francisco (47-38) on the run line for a plus-130 return (risk $100 to win $130).
--Bruce Bochy’s squad improved to 29-14 at home in last night’s triumph. The win kept the Giants within seven games of the NL-West-leading Dodgers. San Francisco is atop the NL wild-card standings, three games in front of the Marlins.
--With Randy Johnson going on the disabled list, Jonathan Sanchez (2-8, 5.30) will return to the rotation after a couple of solid relief appearances. But bettors might not want to risk a minus-155 loss on Sanchez, who was getting rocked before his demotion to the ‘pen. Therefore, I think a run-line wager is the way to go on the home team in this situation.
--Josh Banks (1-0, 5.60) has been extremely effective in three career starts against the Giants, going 1-0 with a 0.95 ERA. With that said, the 26-year-old right-hander was rocked by the Dodgers this past Sunday, giving up six earned run in merely 4 1/3 innings.
--The ‘under’ is 40-39 overall for the Giants, but they have seen the ‘over’ go 21-18 in their home games.
--The ‘over’ is 42-40 overall for the Padres, 22-18 in their road games.
--San Diego is 17-18 against lefties this year.
vegasinsider.com
NATIONAL LEAGUE
L.A. Dodgers (54-31) at Milwaukee (44-41)
The Dodgers open a three-game set at Miller Park in Milwaukee with ace Chad Billingsley (9-4, 3.14 ERA) on the mound against the Brewers’ Braden Looper (7-4, 4.78).
Los Angeles’ brings baseball’s best record into Milwaukee as it makes the last stop on a nine-game road trip that has seen the team go 4-2 thus farafter crushing the Mets 11-2 on Thursday. The Dodgers carry into this contest positive streaks of 5-0 in series openers, 5-1 against right-handed starters and 4-1 on the road against teams with a winning record. Against the Brewers, Los Angeles holds a 35-17 advantage in the last 52 meetings.
Milwaukee fell 5-1 at home to the Cardinals on Thursday, dropping two of three to its division rivals. The Brewers are just 2-6 in their last eight overall and 6-14 in their last 20 against right-handed pitchers, but they are on positive runs of 16-7 in series openers and 44-19 at home against opponents with winning road marks.
Billingsley allowed three runs on four hits over eight innings Sunday in San Diego, but got a no-decision in the Dodgers’ 7-6, 13-inning victory. The right-hander has held the opposition to three earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts and he’s gone at least six innings in nine of his last 10 outings.
Billingsley is 3-1 with a 2.92 ERA on the road this season, and he dominated the Brewers twice last season, going 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA as he allowed just four runs on eight hits over 14 innings. Los Angeles is 0-4 in Billingsley’s last four Friday starts but 5-2 in his last seven series-openers.
Looper is 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA in his last three outings and 4-1 in 10 starts at Miller Park this season, with the Brewers winning seven of those contests. On Saturday, the veteran right-hander gave up two runs on six hits in six innings of an 11-2 victory in Chicago as the Brewers improved to 3-0 in his last three outings. Looper has only one career start against the Dodgers, back in 2007 when he was with the Cardinals, and he allowed just one run on four hits in six innings of a 6-1 victory.
With Billingsley pitching, the Dodgers are on “over” runs of 6-1-1 in series openers and 4-1-1 on the road against winning teams. As a team, Los Angeles has topped the total in five of six overall, seven of eight on the highway and five of six on the road against right-handed starters. Also, the over is 4-1 in Looper’s last five starts overall and 7-1 in his last eight against winning teams, but as a team, Milwaukee is on “under” streaks of 10-2-1 on Fridays, 8-2 against the N.L. West and 6-1 against right-handed starters.
Finally, the “over’ has been the play four of the last five in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (51-34) at L.A. Angels (46-37)
The Yankees look to make it four straight wins when they send Joba Chamberlain (4-2, 4.04 ERA) to the hill to face Angels’ lefty Joe Saunders (8-5, 4.44) at Angel Stadium in Anaheim.
New York completed a three-game sweep in Minnesota Thursday with a 6-4 victory, running its road winning streak to eight. The Yankees are on further streaks of 36-17 overall, 50-24 as a favorite, 14-3 on Fridays, 10-2 following a win, 4-0 in series openers, 7-0 against southpaws and 10-4 against the A.L. West.
The Angels fell out of first place in the A.L. West when they dropped two of three this week to the Rangers in Anaheim. Still, L.A. is riding positive streaks of 17-8 overall, 19-7 as a home ‘dog, 4-1 on Friday and 4-0 in series openers. In this rivalry, the Angels are 5-1 in the last six meetings in Southern California, but the Yankees took two of three in New York earlier this season.
Chamberlain hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of his last 10 starts. On Sunday, he surrendered eight runs (but only three earned) just 3 2/3 innings at home, but his offense bailed him out with a 10-8 win over Toronto. With Chamberlain on the hill, New York is on runs of 6-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 18-6 as a favorite and 4-0 against teams with winning records.
Chamberlain is 4-0 with a 2.74 ERA on the highway this season, and tonight marks his first career start against the Halos.
Saunders has struggled lately, going 1-1 with a whopping 8.40 ERA in his last three outings. He gave up six runs (five earned) in 5 1/3 innings on Sunday against Baltimore, but L.A. escaped with a 9-6 home win. That came after Saunders yielded eight runs on six hits in 3 2/3 innings in a 9-5 loss at Texas on June 30.
Saunders is 4-2 with a 3.43 ERA in nine home starts this year, and he’s 1-1 with a bloated 7.63 ERA in three career starts versus the Yankees. With Saunders on the mound, the Angels are on positive streaks of 55-25 overall, 4-0 at home, 23-11 against teams with a winning record, 11-4 on Friday and 8-3 against the A.L. East.
With Chamberlain dealing, the Yankees are on “over” runs of 4-1 overall and 4-1 as a favorite, and as a team, New York is also on “over” upticks of 5-1 overall, 4-1 against southpaws and 9-3-1 against the A.L. West. With Saunders pitching, Los Angeles is on “over” streaks of 7-0 overall, 4-0 at home, 4-0 against the A.L. East, 4-1 on Fridays and 4-1 as a ‘dog. Additionally, the Halos are riding “over” runs of 4-1 overall, 4-1-1 against the A.L. East, 6-2 in series openers, 10-4-2 on Fridays and 11-4-1 against right-handed pitching.
The over is 13-4 in the last 17 Yankees-Angels clashes and 10-3 in the last 13 battles in Anaheim.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
GAMETIMEPICKS.COM
Texas Swoon
By SportsPic
The Texas Rangers perhaps the biggest surprise this season enter the final weekend of the first half holding down top spot in the A.L. West with it's 47-37 (+$1213) record split between 28-17 (+$769) in Arlington, 19-20 (+$444) on the highway.
Batting .258 amassing 5.0 runs/game with 122 Jacks and a pitching staff holding their own allowing 4.5 runs/game it looks like the Rangers have a shot at the AL West crown.
Or do they? Rangers track record during the dog days of summer suggests otherwise. Well known for 2nd half collapses Rangers went from 46-40 at the break to 33-43 post All-Star in 2005. Then in 2006 much the same as the team had a 45-43 record half way only to finish 35-39. As for 2007 it was an all round bad season as Rangers managed a 38-50 mark in the first half followed by a break even 37-37 closing out. In 2008 another complete washout post All-Star break as the club went 50-46 prior to the break only to collapse in the second half going 29-37.
Sure gives pause Rangers can hold on. It will be interesting when Rangers open the second half against 3-of-4 clubs they've had little success against, the Twins (6-12), Red Sox (5-15), Royals (12-8) and Tigers (3-14).
Runs-A-Plenty!
By SportsPic
New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels meet for the 4th time this season in what has the markings of a high scoring affair. Yankees 2nd in the league with the lumber (.276) averaging 5.6 runs/game will have a grand old time swinging away at Joe Saunders offerings. The southpaw in a deep funk the past three has allowed 7 Yard-ball, 15 runs his last fifteen innings of work. Translation, 1.73 WHIP, 15.60 ABRA/9, 9.67 BOR/9. Meanwhile, Halos the leagues top hitting club (.281) smacking 5.2 runs/game get their share off Joba Chamberlain who's had his own struggles the past three on the hill surrendering 4 Jacks, 14 runs over 15 1/3 innings giving the righty a 1.92 WHIP, 17.28 ABRA/9 and 8.77 BOR/9 over the span. Teams with a pair of starters who can't get batters out (Batter-Out-Rating 15) are 103-17-4 'Over'. Rather count on the more widely available WHIP stat. No problem, teams with starters having a WHIP >1.50 hit the 'Over' at a 74.3% clip (156-43-11 O/U). Adding fuel the 'Over' prevails - 'Over' is 13-4 L17 meetings, Halos are 7-0 'Over' L7 w/Saunders, Yankees 4-1 "Over' L5 w/Chamberlain.