Friday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Jonathon Niese (6-3, 3.61 ERA), New York Mets
Lots of guys pitching on Friday were dealing their best stuff heading into the All-Star break. But instead of telling you the obvious like CC Sabathia and Felix Hernandez are both really good, we thought we’d point out some of the lesser-known hot hurlers.
Niese fits the bill beautifully. The young lefty became an instant favorite of Mets backers when his big league return forced Oliver Perez out of sight. The Mets are 6-1 in Niese’s seven starts since rejoining the club. The towering 23-year-old owns a 2.61 ERA over those seven appearances.
Gavin Floyd (5-7, 4.20 ERA), Chicago White Sox
This Chicago pitcher is making up for his spotty performances earlier this season and he’s doing it in a big way. The White Sox are 5-0 in his last five starts and the under is 8-2-1 in his last 11 outings.
He sports a nifty 1.25 ERA since June 6 and hasn’t allowed a home run in any of his last seven trips to the hill.
Slumping
Ricky Romero (6-6, 3.71 ERA), Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays ace is not enjoying the month of July so far. He was cruising along, delivering quality starts on a regular basis until the seventh month of the year began. He’s been tagged for 13 earned runs in his last two starts. He didn’t make it past the third inning in either of those outings.
“These past two starts, I’ve gotten my ass kicked,” Romero told reporters after the Sox tagged him for nine runs. “There’s no other way to put it. It’s pathetic.”
Ted Lilly (3-8, 4.08 ERA), Chicago Cubs
Here’s another guy that needed the All-Star break to clear his head. Lilly has allowed five homers in his last two starts, including four in an outing against Cincinnati where he gave up nine earned runs in 6.2 innings.
"I feel healthy, just not happy. The only thing that doesn't feel good is the way the ball's coming out of my hand the last couple of starts. Mechanically, I've got to get on top of the ball a little bit better," Lilly told the Associated Press after his latest ugly outing.
Friday MLB Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Friday baseball card is loaded with plenty of matchups for bettors to wager on, as several potential playoff squads meet up to kick off the second half. Cincinnati looks to slow down surging Colorado, while the Marlins try to make a run through the NL East against the Nationals. We'll start in the Bronx with the top two teams in the American League renewing acquaintances.
Rays at Yankees - 7:05 PM EST
The three clubs that own the best records the AL all reside in the Eastern Division, with New York hoping to bolster its two-game lead over Tampa Bay. The Rays swept the Yankees in a two-game set in mid-May, scoring 18 runs in the sweep.
CC Sabathia (12-3, 3.09 ERA) didn't pitch in Tuesday's All-Star Game after beating the Mariners on Sunday, tying for the AL lead in wins with Tampa Bay's David Price. The former Cy Young Award winner is rolling with eight straight victories, while allowing one earned run or less in each of his last five starts. The last time Sabathia saw the Rays, the lefty nearly threw a no-hitter at Tropicana Field in April. The southpaw allowed his only hit in the eighth inning of a 10-0 blowout, going 7.2 innings for just his second victory in five starts against Tampa Bay as a member of the Yankees.
The Rays send out James Shields (7-9, 4.87 ERA), who has won just once in his previous nine outings. Shields lost as nearly a $2.00 home favorite against the Indians his last time out, giving up four earned runs in 6.1 innings of a 9-3 setback. The righty has allowed at least four earned runs in each of his last four starts, but his last two victories have come at Minnesota and New York. When Shields beat the Yankees in May, the 28-year old scattered eight hits and four runs in 7.1 innings of an 8-6 win, only the second victory for him against New York in 11 tries.
The road team is 4-1 in this season's series, while the 'over' has hit in each of the five matchups. Despite dropping the two home games earlier this season, the Yankees are 6-2 the last eight meetings in the Bronx.
Rockies at Reds - 7:10 PM EST
These two clubs meet for the first time this season as Colorado looks to cut a two-game deficit inside the NL West. The Reds' lead in the NL Central is just one game over the Cardinals entering Thursday's action as Cincinnati opens up a seven-game homestand.
Bronson Arroyo (9-4, 4.04 ERA) is coming off a road win over the Mets in his last start, yielding seven hits and one earned run in eight innings of work for his second consecutive victory. Arroyo is 4-1 in his last five starts, but the righty dropped his previous home outing against Cleveland, losing a $1.70 'chalk' by a 5-3 count. The veteran pitched well in a pair of no-decisions last season against the Rockies, but the Reds lost each game.
The Rockies have been nearly automatic when Jason Hammel (7-3, 4.08 ERA) takes the mound, as Colorado is 8-1 in his last nine starts. Six of those victories came at Coors Field, but the two road wins came against San Diego and San Francisco, both teams in Cincinnati's class. Hammel received a no-decision in a 4-3 win over Arroyo and the Reds last season, as the Colorado righty scattered three hits and two earned runs in 7.1 innings.
Colorado has owned this series over the last few seasons, going 14-1 the last 15 meetings since June 2007. The Rockies won all seven meetings last season, while going 6-0 the previous six matchups at the Great American Ballpark.
Nationals at Marlins - 7:10 PM EST
The bottom two teams in the NL East look to start the second half with a bang as Stephen Strasburg takes the mound at Sun Life Stadium for the first time. The Marlins return home for their first game in South Florida since June 27, as the Fish have played in Puerto Rico, Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Arizona over the last two weeks.
Strasburg (3-2, 2.32 ERA) has won only one of his last five starts despite putting together a quality effort in each of those outings. The Nats' rookie allowed three hits and one earned run in six innings of an 8-1 blowout of the Giants his last time out, while striking out at least eight batters for the fifth time this season. Strasburg will remain on a tight pitch count, as the standout hasn't eclipsed the 100-pitch mark yet in seven big league starts.
Ricky Nolasco (9-6, 4.55 ERA) is finally figuring things out following a slow start, going 4-0 in his last four outings. The Marlins' right-hander has tossed seven innings in each of those starts, while striking out 34 in this span. Nolasco's numbers have been substantially stronger on the road than at home, as the righty owns an ERA of 5.09 at Sun Life Stadium. Washington halted a five-game losing skid against Nolasco with a 7-1 blowout of Florida on April 30, touching up the righty for five earned runs in just four innings of work.
The two clubs have split six meetings this season as the Marlins are 2-1 at home. Following the 7-1 setback in the series opener, the Fish claimed the final two games by a combined 16-4 score. The Nats avenged those losses by taking two of three in D.C. less than a week later, including a pair of one-run triumphs in the final two games of the series.
vegasinsider.com
MLB RoundUp For 7/16
By Dan Bebe
National League
Phillies @ Cubs (-140) with a total of N/A
Shane Victorino is 4-for-12 off Lilly;
Jayson Werth is 3-for-9 with a HR and 3 RBI off Lilly;
Alfonso Soriano is 5-for-14 with 2 RBI off Blanton since '05.
This line doesn't make a lick of sense to me. Either Lilly is going to throw a no hitter, or this line is drastically overvaluing the Cubs veteran starter. The Phillies are a better team with a starter that is, in my estimation, only slightly the inferior. The Cubs have some significant bullpen issues, outside of maybe 2 arms, and the Cubs also have the problem that they're floundering and never look like they want to play. Blanton gave up 3 runs in 7 innings against Chicago earlier this year, and Lilly is 1-4 with a 6.43 lifetime ERA against Philadelphia. Leans: Phillies
Astros (-130) @ Pirates with a total of 8.5
Lastings Milledge is 5-for-14 with 3 RBI off Myers.
Interestingly, both pitchers in this one have solid numbers against the other club. Myers is 4-4 with a 2.68 ERA against the Pirates, and Duke, though he's coming off the DL and that makes this one a little scary, is 2-4 with a 3.25 ERA lifetime against the 'Stros. Myers pitched well against Pittsburgh back in April and helped get his club a win, and Duke hasn't pitched against the Astros this year. Not to mention, Duke hasn't pitched against anyone in a month. The rust factor is the only one I'm really looking at. Leans: Astros
Rockies @ Reds (-140) with a total of 9
This should be a fun series to open the second half. The struggling-going-into-the-Break Reds, and the comeback kids (mostly at home) from Colorado. Jason Hammel and Bronson Arroyo have each been pitching pretty darn well, though Hammel has seemingly found a way to pitch at home almost every time out, it seems. Arroyo has been decent enough against the Rox in his career, and Hammel, in brief work, is 0-0 with a 2.45 ERA against the Rockies. I know both teams are known for their fireworks, but I wonder if we're not getting some value on the Under? Leans: Under
Nationals (-145) @ Marlins with a total of 7
Christian Guzman was 3-for-10 off Nolasco coming into 2010.
Ricky Nolasco has been a pretty hefty disappointment, this year. Yes, he's 9-6, but that 4.55 ERA is way too high for someone with stuff as good as Ricky's. He's 7-2 lifetime against the Nats, but took 1 of those 2 losses earlier this year, surrendering 5 runs in 4 innings of an ugly outing back in April. Strasburg is coming off an electric start against the Giants, but (and this is a big "but") the Nats can't win on the road. Period. Leans: Marlins
Brewers @ Braves (-185) with a total of 8.5
Ryan Braun was 3-for-7 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Hanson coming into 2010;
Matt Diaz is 7-for-13 with 4 RBI off Wolf;
Chipper Jones is 7-for-15 with a HR and 4 RBI off Wolf since '05;
Brian McCann is 4-for-9 with a HR and 4 RBI off Wolf.
Randy Wolf has been a complete disaster against the Braves in his career, 4-12 with a 5.31 ERA, one of his worst marks against any team he's faced enough to really make a statement. Hanson tossed 8 shutout innings against the Brewers earlier this year, and he's coming off a productive outing against the Mets. The Braves should wax Milwaukee in this one, but the price is too darn high. Leans: None
Dodgers @ Cardinals (-150) with a total of 7.5
Matt Holliday is just 5-for-20 off Billingsley, but has 3 HR;
Randy Winn is 11-for-25 with 5 RBI off Billingsley.
This game feels like a pretty steep line for a good Dodgers team, but at the same time, the Dodgers usually have issues in St. Louis, and young Jaime Garcia has been a very reliable starter. Billingsley for the Dodgers is 1-2 with a 4.40 ERA against the Cards, so he hasn't necessarily been bad, and Pujols is just 2-for-12 off Chad, lifetime. The Dodgers haven't seen Garcia, and with Manny coming off the DL, you know he'd love to put one more notch on his belt. Probably won't be making a play on this game, but definitely take a look at how the teams play in the first game back before making a move on this one. Leans: Dodgers
D'backs @ Padres (-125) with a total of 6.5
Stephen Drew was 3-for-6 off Garland before 2010;
Nick Hundley was 8-for-18 off Haren before 2010.
The player numbers aren't of great importance in this one, as both guys have started against the other team this year, already, and Garland has done so, twice. For Haren, he faced San Diego in his first start of the year, and outpitched Garland with 7 innings of 1-run ball. Garland has been marginal against the D'backs both times he faced them this year, though the Padres are 1-1 in his starts. The obvious concern, here, is that the San Diego pen is the best in the League, and D'backs is the worst, so they'll likely need a 2 run lead, at least, when the starters leave, to feel any kind of safe. Still, Haren is a definitely buy-low pitcher, even this late in the year. Leans: D'backs
Mets @ Giants (-135) with a total of 7.5
David Wright is 4-for-11 off Zito with an RBI.
This is another game where I feel the home line is a little inflated because of the timing. The first game out of the Break is always a screwy one, and even though Jone Niese has been outstanding, and Zito has been struggling, the Giants are getting the love because they're at home and people know the name Zito. I know San Francisco is a much better home team than road, and I know their offense seemed to perk up a little going into the Break, but I worry that Zito is running out of gas near the halfway point. I can't back the Giants, that's for darn sure. Leans: Mets
American League
Tigers (-140) @ Indians with a total of 9
Carlos Guillen was batting .417 off Westbrook between '05 and '09;
Brandon Inge was batting .348 off Westbrook with 2 HR and 6 RBI since '05;
Magglio Ordonez was batting .364 off Westbrook with 2 HR and 6 RBI since '05;
Ramon Santiago was 5-for-7 off Westbrook before 2010.
Westbrook has faced the Tigers twice already this year, and amazingly, he's pitched relatively well against them both times. He's 5-8 and with a 5.69 ERA lifetime against Detroit, but that doesn't appear to be the case this year. We all know about the Tigers' road woes, too. Scherzer stunk against the Indians earlier this year, but that was before he went down to the Minors and got his game back. I'd like to try to back the Tigers in the pitching match-up, but not away from Comerica. Leans: Indians
Rays @ Yankees (-185) with a total of 9
Sorry player numbers, you have no place in this one. This side is basically where it should be given that Shields hasn't been himself over the last month-plus, and is a lifetime 2-7, 5.54 hurler against the Yankees. Sabathia, meanwhile, is 8-3 with a 2.97 ERA against Tampa, and shut them down in a start against the Rays earlier this season. Tampa was starting to hit the ball a little better after a brief slump, so I wonder if that carries over. It's just not a place I'd think we want to roll the dice. Leans: None
Blue Jays (-165) @ Orioles with a total of 9
I know the Orioles laid waste to the slumping Rangers going into the Break, but Ricky Romero tossed a complete game, 1-run gem against them earlier this year, and Bergesen seems to almost find a way to give up 3 or more runs in every start, even if it looks like he might get out of there only giving up 2. Seriously. The Orioles are going to be a live dog plenty of times the rest of the way, but I wouldn't go pouncing on them right out of the gate. Leans: None
Rangers (-135) @ Red Sox with a total of 9.5
This is quite a price to be laying on the road in Fenway, isn't it? I can't help but think that this line is based far too much on the starting pitchers, and not nearly enough on the bullpens, the lineups, home field edge, etc. Colby Lewis continues to put up solid numbers, though he's not unhittable by any stretch, giving up 3 runs in 5 innings here at Fenway back in April. Felix Doubront would seemingly be vulnerable to a good lineup like Texas, but is he going to just implode? I doubt it. This is too high a price for the Rangers in Boston, even if the Red Sox are banged up. Leans: Red Sox
White Sox @ Twins (-130) with a total of 8
Paul Konerko was 3-for-9 with 2 HR and 6 RBI off Liriano before 2010;
Jason Kubel is 9-for-25 with 3 HR and 6 RBI off Floyd;
Denard Span is 8-for-14 with 2 RBI off Floyd.
Gavin Floyd has just been completely unhittable since early June, and no one is surprised. He stinks for 2 months, then cranks it up come summertime. Liriano, on the other hand, has been very inconsistent since a strong opening month. He's 0-3 with a 6.84 lifetime mark against the White Sox, and gave up 3 runs in 6 innings against them the only time he faced the Southsiders this year. Floyd is 4-4 with a 4.22 ERA against the Twinkies, and I'm not sure I'm willing to stop backing Floyd until he gives me a strong reason to reconsider. Leans: White Sox
Athletics @ Royals (-150) with a total of 7.5
Daric Barton is 3-for-5 with a HR and 2 RBI off Greinke;
Mark Ellis is 4-for-11 with 3 RBI off Greinke;
Kurt Suzuki is 5-for-13 off Greinke;
Yuny Betancourt is 4-for-9 with an RBI off Gonzalez.
While the player numbers might seem to indicate an edge for Gonzalez, the pitcher numbers might say otherwise. Gio is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA lifetime against the Royals, while Greinke is 4-0 with a 2.88 ERA against the A's. Kansas City has, rather quietly, played solid baseball the last 2 months under new manager Ned Yost, and I wonder if Greinke comes back renewed, after the Break. It seemed like he needed a mental rest, fighting those uphill battles every night with the bullpen behind him blowing lead after lead. Well, now the pen is solid, and Greinke can go back to dominating. This line is pretty accurate, in my opinion. Leans: Royals
Mariners @ Angels (-140) with a total of 6.5
DOUBLE REMATCH ALERT! These two have faced off twice already this year, and the Angels have won both games. Weaver's certainly done his part, so I don't want to take any credit away from the Angels starter. Jered has gone 14.1 innings in his two starts against the Mariners, giving up just a single unearned run. Tough to do better than that. Felix was awful in one start, a game the M's lost 8-0, then was much better his second try against the Angels, but his pen surrendered a handful of runs in a game the Mariners lost 5-1. The Angels need this game more, no question, but King Felix has been, arguably, the best pitcher in the AL over the last month, throwing 4 complete games, going 8 innings 2 other times, and has lowered his season ERA to just 2.88. Wow. At this price, he deserves a look. Leans: Mariners
Diamond Trends - Friday
By Vince Akins
Mariners at Angels - The Mariners are 0-9 since May 06, 2009 as a road dog after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits for a net profit of $900 when playing against.
Brewers at Braves - The Brewers are 0-8 since April 24, 2010 when they are off a loss in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $915 when playing against. The Braves are 8-0 since May 31, 2010 at home when they won the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $810.
Dodgers at Cardinals - The Cardinals are 0-5 since June 24, 2010 after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $630 when playing against.
Phillies at Cubs - The Cubs are 0-6 since August 27, 2009 as a home favorite after a 5+ run win and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1095 when playing against.
Mets at Giants - The Mets are 0-9 since July 22, 2009 as a road dog after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Giants are 0-5 since April 16, 2009 when Barry Zito starts after he had a WHIP of at least 2 his last start on the road for a net profit of $575 when playing against.
Tigers at Indians - The Indians are 0-8 since June 19, 2009 as a dog after a one run loss and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $800 when playing against.
Nationals at Marlins - The Nationals are 5-0 since June 29, 2010 when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $590.
Blue Jays at Orioles - The Blue Jays are 5-0 since June 05, 2009 when Ricky Romero starts after he had a WHIP of at least 2 his last start at home for a net profit of $590. The Orioles are 4-0 since June 19, 2010 as a 140+ dog when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $880.
Diamondbacks at Padres - The Diamondbacks are 0-8 since May 02, 2010 on the road when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Padres are 0-7 since May 08, 2009 after a win in which they allowed 5+ walks and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $755 when playing against.
Astros at Pirates - The Astros are 0-6 since May 16, 2010 when Brett Myers starts on the road for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Pirates are 0-9 since August 05, 2009 at home within 20 cents of pickem when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $900 when playing against.
Rangers at Red Sox - The Red Sox are 0-9 since May 14, 2009 as a dog after a loss in which their opponent left 18+ men on base and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Red Sox are 0-6 since September 29, 2009 at home when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $800 when playing against.
Rockies at Reds - The Rockies are 0-7 since August 28, 2009 on the road after a loss in which their opponent left 18+ men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $740 when playing against.
Athletics at Royals - The Athletics are 5-0 since July 05, 2009 when Gio Gonzalez starts after facing 25 or fewer hitters at home for a net profit of $805. The Royals are 0-5 since June 17, 2009 when Zack Greinke starts at home after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs on the road for a net profit of $605 when playing against. The Royals are 0-9 since May 14, 2009 at home after a 5+ run loss and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $930 when playing against.
White Sox at Twins - The White Sox are 10-0 since June 10, 2010 after scoring 6+ runs win for a net profit of $1045. The White Sox are 5-0 since June 18, 2010 when Gavin Floyd starts for a net profit of $570. The Twins are 0-5 since July 09, 2009 when Francisco Liriano starts in July for a net profit of $535 when playing against.
Rays at Yankees - The Rays are 0-7 since April 23, 2009 when James Shields starts after giving up 2 or more home runs at home for a net profit of $1005 when playing against. The Yankees are 9-0 since April 10, 2009 after a 5+ run win and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $915.