Friday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Jamie Moyer (9-6, 4.30 ERA), Philadelphia Phillies
When will Moyer stop being an active starting hurler in the bigs? It doesn’t look like it’s going to be any time soon. The 47-year-old lefty has been masterful in his last three starts going 3-0 with 1.96 ERA and a 17-2 strikeout to walk ratio.
“His longevity is absolutely remarkable,” Phillies manager Charlie Manuel told the Associated Press after Moyer held the Blue Jays to just two runs over seven innings in his last start. “What impresses me is his command. He says if he puts the ball where he wants to go, he can get people out.”
Josh Johnson (8-3, 1.83 ERA), Florida Marlins
Johnson is a frequent visitor to the streaking club this season. The Marlins big righty consistently frustrates opponents and puts a smile on the faces of his backers.
He hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of his last nine outings and he’s pitched in seven or more innings in eight of those nine starts. Oddsmakers don’t let bettors back Johnson cheaply and the Fish are just 3-3 in his last six trips to the mound.
The best course of action is probably playing the total. The under is 6-0 in his last six appearances.
Slumping
Brett Cecil (7-5, 4.39 ERA), Toronto Blue Jays
You can count Cecil as one of the reasons why the Blue Jays have been playing so poorly lately. The southpaw hurler is 0-3 with a 9.20 ERA in his last three starts. Not surprisingly, the over is also a perfect 3-0 in those three games.
“I’m unbelievably frustrated, obviously,” Cecil told the National Post following his latest setback. "The ball just keeps drifting up a little bit, so I’ve got to stay through it and keep pitching.”
A.J. Burnett (6-7, 5.25 ERA), New York Yankees
This hard-throwing righty would be worrying about his spot in the rotation if the Yanks actually had someone capable of taking it. Burnett has delivered just two quality starts since May 9.
Even worse, Burnett finished June with an 11.35 ERA – the highest ERA ever in one month by a Yankees hurler.
"I've been saying all along that he is going to get out of this and he will," New York manager Joe Girardi told reporters after Burnett’s flameout against the Dodgers. "Every great player has been through slumps. I think struggles with pitchers always start with command. Anyone who can command the baseball can have success."
The Bronx Bombers are hopeful Burnett will get his head back on straight now that pitching coach Dave Eiland has rejoined the club following a three-week absence.
Friday's Triple Play
By Judd Hall
Fourth of July weekend is a time for good friends, good food, beer and injuries caused by illegal fireworks. It’s also the time for plenty of baseball. We’ve got a full slate on Friday to keep us entertained. Let’s take a look at a pair of those battles.
Mariners (33-45, -1,274) at Tigers (41-36, +393) – 7:05 p.m. EDT
Seattle makes the trip into the Motor City after dropping a 4-2 decision to the Yankees as a $3.00 road pup. Still, the Mariners have won three of their last five games to cut ease some of the pain.
The M’s will trot out Doug Fister (3-3, 2.81) to get this series off to a good start. Fister hasn’t been a bad option for Seattle to put out on the mound for the most part as he’s alternated wins and losses in his last five starts. The Mariners do take solace in knowing that they’ve won two of his last three road starts in 2010.
The Tigers know that games against the lower-tier clubs are important to win if they want to catch Minnesota for the AL Central crown. And you can be damn sure they want to pull the same type of fast one that the Twins did to them at the end of the 2009 campaign.
Detroit sends Mark Scherzer (4-6, 5.26) out to the mound on Friday evening. This isn’t a terrible for Jim Leyland to put him out there as Scherzer has won his last two decisions and pitched well enough to win three straight games last Saturday on the road against Atlanta. Also, the former Diamondback is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA for his career against the Mariners. And Scherzer has won his last three starts at Comerica Park.
The Motor City Kitties have fared well since 2008 as home favorites against AL West opponents, going 26-10. That includes a recent stretch of 15-5 in the last 20 matchups.
Seattle has dropped two of its three games as a road pup versus teams out of the AL Central. Stretch that out to the 2008 campaign and the M’s have posted a horrendous 12-30 mark in this situation.
Giants (40-37, -363) at Rockies (41-37, -167) – 8:10 p.m. EDT
Most people felt like these two teams would be the ones fighting for the National League West crown. Now they’re just trying to stay relevant as we delve into the depths of summer.
San Francisco has fallen on hard times as of late by losing seven of its last eight games. The Giants continue to have issues at the plate, scoring two or fewer runs in their past five contests – all losses, mind you.
The Giants will aim for their best offense being a good pitching performance out of Tim Lincecum (8-3, 3.13). One thing we can be certain of is that Lincecum will have some added incentive for this game after a lousy outing against the Red Sox on June 27. He gave up four earned runs on five hits and walked three batters in just three innings of work. That’s only the third time Lincecum has lasted three full innings. San Fran can look to his 3-0 record and earned run average of 2.54 (3.69 at home) away from AT&T Park for some encouragement. Surprisingly enough, the ‘over’ is 5-1-1 in his seven road appearances for San Francisco.
Colorado has to feel good about its chances to make a run towards at least the NL Wild Card since they’re coming back home. The Rockies have won seven of their last nine matches held at Coors Field. And Jim Tracy’s club is starting up a nice nine-game homestand to give them a shot at making that run.
For the Rox to keep some of that homespun momentum, they’ll need Jhoulys Chacin (4-7, 3.51) to pitch well. That isn’t fair to say since he’s actually done quite well in his last three starts, giving up four earned runs in 17.2 innings. Chacin has just had no support at the plate or from his defense. You can’t say that for every game recently as he has lost five of his last six starts.
Colorado has enjoyed success at home against the Giants, winning five of its eight home tests with them last season. The ‘over’ is just 4-3-1 in those games as well.
The Rockies have been a great team to back when listed a home ‘dogs, evidenced by a solid 4-1 mark in 2010. San Francisco, on the other hand, has gone 1-4 in five matches as a road “chalk” against NL West foes.
Rays (44-32, -255) at Twins (42-34, +53) – 8:10 p.m. EDT
Could this be a matchup we’ll see come October? Well, it sure as hell is a possibility. The only thing we need is both clubs to get back onto track.
The Rays have dropped four of their last 10 contests as they’ve fallen to third place in the AL East. That sounds pretty bad until you realize that is just two games behind the Yankees. Tampa Bay does have the advantage on the road this year as they are the best in the big leagues with a 25-13 record away from Tropicana Field.
David Price (11-3, 2.44) has arguably been the best pitcher for Tampa Bay. Price is coming off of a great 5-3 home win over the Diamondbacks on June 26. He gave up just two earned runs on seven hits in eight innings. It also doesn’t hurt that his command has been in good shape as he’s struck out 20 hitters, while giving just three free passes to first base. Another thing to note about Price is that he’s 6-2 with an ERA of 2.88 in his eight road starts this season.
Minnesota is still in first place in the AL Central, but they can no doubt feel the Tigers breathing down its neck. One way for the Twins to return a comfortable cushion with themselves and the rest of the division is to win at home. And they’re do just that at Target Field by going 25-14 in the new digs.
The Twinkies will aim for Scott Baker (6-7, 4.97) to get back on track for the chance to win this game. Baker has given up 11 earned runs in his last two starts this season. On the plus side, he’s gone 5-2 with a 3.55 ERA in eight home starts in 2010. But Baker has dropped his last two starts against the Rays.
Minnesota has feasted upon left-handed pitching at home this year, evidenced by an impressive 8-2 record. The ‘under’ is 7-3 in those games. Although the Twins have dropped two of their last three games as home pups.
The Rays have made the most of being road favorites by going 15-8 this season, which includes a recent 6-3 run. But they are just 7-16 against as road faves against the AL Central dating back to last year.
vegasinsider.com
MLB RoundUp For 7/2
By Dan Bebe
National League
Reds @ Cubs (-130) with a total of N/A
Orlando Cabrera is 4-for-6 off Dempster between '05 and '09;
Ramon Hernandez was 3-for-6 with a HR and 3 RBI between '05 and '09;
Scott Rolen was 3-for-8 with 2 RBI between '05 and '09;
Marlon Byrd is 3-for-8 with a HR and 3 RBI off Arroyo;
Mike Fontenot is 3-for-6 with a HR and 2 RBI off Arroyo;
Xavier Nady is 6-for-19 with a HR and 4 RBI off Arroyo.
Just a ton of player matchup data, and even a tiny bit more coming from Dempster's one start against Cincinnati earlier this year, in which he allowed 5 runs in 7 innings. Arroyo hasn't faced Chicago in 2010, but he is a solid 7-6 with a 3.06 ERA against the Cubbies prior to this year. Dempster is just 4-5 with a 4.18 ERA against the Reds, though his start this year did raise that number just a tad from its pre-2010 number. The Reds are a live dog, but not necessarily a winning one. Leans: Reds
Mets (-120) @ Nationals with a total of 9
This line is a little on the low side, and it's our job to determine if it's low because the Nats are poised to snatch one from the Mets, or if it's low because the world still doesn't know about Jon Niese. I happen to think it's a little of both. If the world truly knew Jon Niese, even a "fishy" line would still be a little more chalky than this, since we're really one large bet away from getting this thing down near standard juice. Niese has a 12.46 ERA against the Nats in his brief career, but then, Luis Atilano has a 5.59 ERA against the Mets. I believe this line is heavily relying on the Nats winning some games at home, and Atilano continuing his recent upward trend, off 2 good starts in a row. The Mets look a bit too easy, to me. Leans: Nationals
Phillies (-170) @ Pirates with a total of 9
Ohlendorf has been serviceable, but honestly, I just don't feel like there's truly enough reason to enjoy this one from a betting standpoint. Jamie Moyer is on a run of 3 straight strong outings, though he's just 2-1 with a 4.30 ERA lifetime against the Pirates. Very few decisions against this club, all things considered. Too expensive to back the Phils, and not enough reason to back the Pirates when they're not playing a team named the Cubs. Leans: None
Marlins (-135) @ Braves with a total of 7
Josh Johnson is just scary-good, posting, now, a 1.83 ERA on the season. Wow. Kris Medlen is having a nice season of his own, 5-1 with a 3.15 ERA, and the Braves just seem to win when he's on the mound. The Marlins haven't seen much of Medlen, outside of relief work, so tough to go on any data, there, and on the other side, the Braves have seen plenty of Johnson, but no one on the team has had consistent success. Johnson is 4-2 with a 2.74 ERA against the Braves. This total looks low, but I think it's about right, and I just wonder if the Marlins can keep hitting outside of Puerto Rico. If they do, this could be an easy win. If not, chalk on the road, with a poor team is a little dicey. Leans: Marlins
Giants (-125) @ Rockies with a total of 8
Todd Helton is 9-for-19 off Lincecum with a HR and 2 RBI;
Chris Iannetta was 6-for-12 with a HR and 4 RBI off Lincecum.
I'll tell ya, on paper, this looks like a no-brainer, doesn't it? Tim Lincecum as just a -125 price tag? And honestly, it might just be, given that the Giants were cold as ice coming into Colorado, and the series-opener is far from over when this line came out. So, this line is based largely on Lincecum, but also largely on the Giants' struggles. On top of that, Chacin made his first start of 2010 against the Giants, and shut them out for 7 innings. Lincecum also got hit hard by the Rockies when he faced them earlier this year. This one is, to me, much more complicated that folks are going to say. I'd leave it alone. Leans: None
Brewers @ Cardinals (-185) with a total of 8.5
This game is only intriguing because you have Narveson, a bad pitcher coming off a tremendous start, and Garcia, a pitcher that had been nearly unhittable, coming off an awful start. Does that trend continue? It might be worth a very small play based on that alone. Of course, the Cards are pretty tough at home, so that's a point of concern, but the Brewers have been better on the road than at home this year, so perhaps that nullifies things a tad. Leans: Brewers
Dodgers @ D'backs (-110) with a total of 9.5
REMATCH ALERT! This one is sort of a modified rematch, since they did square off on May 12, but have faced the other TEAM one other time, if that makes sense. First, Kuroda went 7 innings and gave up 3 runs (2 earned) in a 6-5 win over Dan Haren back on April 15. Next, the two did battle, Kuroda gave up 3 runs (again, 2 earned) in 7.1 innings of a 6-3 win over Jackson, who allowed all 6 runs in 6.2 innings. Finally, Jackson faced Carlos Monasterios in one of the crazy low-scoring games in LA in early June, and his 9 shutout innings weren't enough, as the Dodgers won 1-0 in extras. Jackson, as we know, is coming off the most ridiculous no-hitter in recent memory, walking the house, and throwing almost 400 pitches in the process. He was given 2 extra days to rest his arm, but with the Dodgers record against the NL West, Kuroda's success against the D'backs, and Jackson's "bonus" credibility with the public, this seems like our last chance to get a good price on the Dodgers. Leans: Dodgers
Astros @ Padres (-175) with a total of 6
Adrian Gonzalez is 6-for-15 off Oswalt with 2 HR and 6 RBI since '05.
How many people thought Roy Oswalt would be a huge dog to Mat Latos in July of this year? Oswalt, mind you, is 10-2 with a 2.74 lifetime ERA against the Padres, and Latos has made one start against the Astros in his career. Oswalt actually beat San Diego earlier this season with 8 innings of 3-run ball, but that might not be enough this time, in Petco. Mat Latos went 8 shutout innings against the Astros when these teams faced off, allowing just 2 hits in that one, and his stuff is just frightening. Latos, as a result, has one of the best WHIPs in baseball, and that's why we're not going against him, even at this inflated number. Leans: None
American League
Blue Jays @ Yankees (-150) with a total of 10; B. Cecil vs. A. Burnett;
REMATCH ALERT! This one is a fun one, since Brett Cecil actually dominated the Yankees, and Burnett, when these guys faced off back on June 4. Cecil went 8 innings and allowed a single run, while Burnett, who has to be just pleased as punch that June is over, allowed 6 runs in 6 innings. I just wonder if we missed our chance to fade Burnett. This line is low, but it's low because of everything going on with A.J. Brett Cecil, by the way, is on a run of 3 straight terrible starts, and that's why we're seeing a total of 10 here, a full run higher than the last time these guys met in a game that ended with 7 total runs, and went under. How about that, huh? Leans: Blue Jays, Over
Athletics (-125) @ Indians with a total of 8
Gio Gonzalez is a rock solid 2-0 with a 1.62 ERA against the Indians in his short Big League career, but let's remember how much better he is at home versus on the road. Mitch Talbot has never faced the A's, but is coming off back-to-back strong starts, on the road, against two good teams in Philadelphia and Cincinnati. With Talbot trending up, and Gio Gonzalez looking positively human on the road (5.44 road ERA versus close to 2 at home), I actually think that the Indians are a very healthy canine in this one. I also like that Oakland's pen has been worse on the road, and Indians offense is super-streaky, and they pitched and hit well against the Blue Jays. Leans: Indians
Mariners @ Tigers (-145) with a total of 8.5
Jack Wilson is 2-for-4 off Scherzer;
Johnny Damon is 3-for-7 off Fister.
Well, I suppose this is about as good as it's going to get. Some of the best money out there comes from fading the Tigers on the road, but there's a reason those lines are still so nice, and it's because Detroit wins games at home. Scherzer's been pitching much better since his return from the Minors, and while he doesn't go that deep in games (too many strikeouts and walks), he's keeping the Tigers in almost every start, and while Detroit isn't winning all of them, he's been decent both at home and on the road. Fister looked crummy in his first start off the disabled list, and I fear he may be in for more trouble. Can we afford Detroit at this price, though? Leans: Tigers
Orioles @ Red Sox (-240) with a total of 10.5
Miguel Tejada is 12-for-27 with a HR and 4 RBI off Wakefield since '05;
Marco Scutaro is 3-for-6 with 2 RBI off Bergesen.
Interestingly, Brad Bergesen is 3-4 with a 6.83 ERA on the season, but he's 1-1 with a 3.79 ERA against the Red Sox in his career. So, he tends to pitch alright against them. Still, these are the Orioles, and even though Wakefield has been a huge disappointment this year, they are the injured Red Sox. This line is way out of our league on a favorite, and I'm not about to start backing the Orioles indiscriminately, not in a game they probably won't win, even if the price is decent. Leans: None
White Sox @ Rangers (-185) with a total of 9.5
REMATCH ALERT! How's this for a surprising rematch? Did you think Freddy Garcia and Colby Lewis had really faced off? I can tell you I forgot about it. In any case, Garcia won the early match, a tight ballgame that ended 4-3 in favor of the Pale Hose. Garcia gave up 3 runs (2 earned) in 7 strong innings. In that same game, Colby Lewis gave up 4 runs in 6.1 innings, so it was all decided by the starters. The White Sox are definitely equilibrating off that long win streak, and while they might look like a nice deal at this price, I'm not sure it's the right time to take a shot on 'em. Leans: None
Rays (-122) @ Twins with a total of 8
Carl Crawford is 3-for-7 with a HR off Baker;
Evan Longoria is 4-for-6 with a HR and 4 RBI off Baker.
David Price is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA against the Twins, and 11-3 with a 2.44 ERA on the season. I know the Rays haven't exactly been dominant lately after a strong start, but Scott Baker is 1-2 with a 5.30 ERA against Tampa Bay in his career, and as you can see, Evan Longoria has hit him very, very hard. Baker's been struggling and Price has not, and I know it's the public side, given the way the Rays have been playing and the big name of their starting pitcher, but I really think this is a nice Price tag (rim shot time, here). Okay, lame puns aside, this line is low because of the Rays weak recent play, not some sort of trap. Leans: Rays
Royals @ Angels (-165) with a total of 9
Alberto Callaspo is 3-for-6 off Saunders with an RBI;
Jose Guillen is 5-for-10 off Saunders since '05;
Torii Hunter is 5-for-15 with a HR and 4 RBI off Davies.
This is too expensive to back Saunders, and not enough reason to back Davies. Saunders is 3-0 against Kansas City, and Davies is 1-1 with a 4.80 ERA against the Angels, not to mention 4-6 with a 6.06 ERA on the season. I know the Royals can hit, and they very well much tough Saunders up for some runs. I also know their pen has been tremendous, lately, but it's just not worth venturing into this one, to me. Leans: None
Diamond Trends - Friday
By Vince Akins
Royals at Angels – The Angels are 0-8 since October 20, 2009 at home after a one run win for a net profit of $985 when playing against.
Marlins at Braves – The Marlins are 13-0 since May 24, 2009 when Josh Johnson starts after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $1325. The Marlins are 6-0 since May 04, 2009 after a loss in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $845. The Braves are 0-7 since June 04, 2010 after a win in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $710 when playing against.
Brewers at Cardinals – The Brewers are 5-0 since September 13, 2009 as a road dog when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $710. The Cardinals are 12-0 since July 17, 2009 as a 140+ favorite after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1200. The Cardinals are 7-0 since May 20, 2009 when their starter went less than four innings in his last start for a net profit of $760. The Cardinals are 0-5 since April 23, 2010 when Jaime Garcia starts after facing 25 or fewer hitters for a net profit of $675 when playing against.
Reds at Cubs – The Reds are 7-0 since August 07, 2009 on the road after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $930. The Reds are 5-0 since May 11, 2009 when Bronson Arroyo starts on the road after losing as a home favorite in his last start for a net profit of $600. The Cubs are 7-0 since June 14, 2009 as a favorite when they are off two losses in which they never led and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $700.
Dodgers at Diamondbacks – The League is 8-0 since June 18, 2010 when they are off two wins in which they never trailed and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1105. The Dodgers are 5-0 since June 23, 2009 when Hiroki Kuroda starts within 20 cents of pickem when the bullpen has allowed at least one run for two straight games for a net profit of $505.
Athletics at Indians – The Athletics are 4-0 since July 05, 2009 when Gio Gonzalez starts after facing 25 or fewer hitters at home for a net profit of $705. The Indians are 4-0 since April 27, 2010 when Mitch Talbot starts as a dog after a quality start on the road for a net profit of $630.
Mets at Nationals – The Mets are 5-0 since July 25, 2009 when Jonathon Niese starts when the team is seeking immediate revenge for a loss as a favorite for a net profit of $540.
Astros at Padres – The Astros are 6-0 since June 01, 2009 when Roy Oswalt starts after the team lost his last two starts for a net profit of $650. The Padres are 7-0 since May 19, 2009 as a favorite when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $700.
Phillies at Pirates – The League is 0-9 since April 10, 2009 as a home 140+ dog when they are off two wins in which they never trailed for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Pirates are 0-7 since June 19, 2009 when Ross Ohlendorf starts as a dog after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $700 when playing against.
White Sox at Rangers – The White Sox are 6-0 since April 29, 2010 on the road when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $710. The Rangers are 7-0 since September 21, 2009 as a favorite after a loss and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $700.
Orioles at Red Sox – The Orioles are 0-11 since August 09, 2009 as a road dog after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings for a net profit of $1100 when playing against. The Orioles are 0-10 since May 21, 2009 as a 170+ dog after a 5+ run loss for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The Red Sox are 12-0 since June 09, 2009 as a favorite when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1200.
Giants at Rockies – The Giants are 0-5 since April 18, 2009 when Tim Lincecum starts after he had a WHIP of at least 2 his last start and they lost in his previous start for a net profit of $740 when playing against.
Mariners at Tigers – The Mariners are 0-8 since May 18, 2009 as a dog vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $800 when playing against.
Rays at Twins – The Rays are 8-0 since July 09, 2009 when David Price starts vs a team that lost their starters last two starts for a net profit of $810. The Rays are 7-0 since May 07, 2010 when David Price starts as a favorite after a quality start for a net profit of $700. The Twins are 10-0 since May 08, 2009 when Scott Baker starts after facing 25 or fewer hitters and they lost in his previous start for a net profit of $1000.
Blue Jays at Yankees – The Blue Jays are 0-9 since July 08, 2009 as a road dog after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Blue Jays are 6-0 since August 31, 2009 when Brett Cecil starts as a dog in the first game of a series for a net profit of $800. The Yankees are 9-0 since August 08, 2009 at home vs a team that has lost at least their last four games for a net profit of $900.