MLB News and Notes Friday 7/23

Friday MLB Tips
By Kevin Rogers

The Friday baseball card heats up in the dead of summer with eight new series starting. The Angels and Rangers continue to tangle in Texas, while the Jays try to keep the Tigers down in the Motor City. We'll start with a playoff rematch from last October as Colorado tries to avenge a series loss to Philadelphia.

Rockies at Phillies - 7:05 PM EST

Philadelphia has been in a major funk, as the two-time defending NL Champions are slowly falling out of the NL East race. The Phillies have dropped six of seven since the All-Star Break to fall seven games behind the Braves in the division. The Rockies are in the midst of the crowded NL West race, sitting 4 ½ games behind the Padres.

The Phillies eliminated the Rockies in four games of the 2009 NLDS, including a pair of one-run wins at Coors Field. Roy Halladay (10-8, 2.40 ERA) should be thrilled to return home after suffering an 11-6 defeat at Chicago this past Sunday as a $1.70 road favorite. The former Cy Young Award winner has won three straight starts at Citizens Bank Park, including a 9-0 shutout of the Blue Jays as Toronto was listed as the home team due to the G-20 Summit that kicked Cito Gaston's team out of Rogers Centre. Halladay owns an ERA of 2.03 at home, despite a 5-4 mark in Philadelphia. The ace received a no-decision at Coors Field as $1.80 'chalk' on May 12 as the Rockies rallied past the Phillies, 4-3 in extra-innings.

Aaron Cook (4-5, 4.53 ERA) has picked things up after a tough June as Colorado is 3-0 in his three July starts. The Rockies' right-hander is fresh off his best effort of the season, tossing seven scoreless innings in a 1-0 victory at Cincinnati as a $1.35 road underdog. Coming off a quality start has not been a good thing for Cook, as the Rockies are 3-6 in this spot, including an 0-5 mark off a quality outing in which Colorado won. The Rockies own a 2-4 ledger in Cook's previous six road outings, but picked up a win at Philadelphia during last season's NLDS as Cook beat the Phillies in Game 2 by a 5-4 count.

The Phillies' offense has sputtered recently by batting .222 in their last 10 games, but has allowed at least five runs in five instances since the All-Star Break. These two clubs split a two-game set at Coors Field in May, while the Phillies grabbed seven of 10 meetings last season.

Braves at Marlins - 7:05 PM EST

Atlanta looks to stay hot as the NL East leaders head south to battle Florida. The Braves took two of three from the best in the NL West Padres, while extending their advantage inside the division. The Marlins managed to win their second straight home series by knocking off the Rockies three of four times, including a pair of walk-off victories.

Derek Lowe (10-8, 4.39 ERA) has not been a solid play on the road, as Atlanta is 1-4 in his last five away starts since June. Lowe was listed as a favorite only once in this stretch, coming in a 2-0 setback to the White Sox during interleague play. Another issue with Lowe recently has been his inability to go far in starts, as the righty has pitched past the sixth inning only once in his last four outings. The Braves managed to beat the Marlins two of three times in Lowe's starts last season, but not one of those outings was a quality one, with the veteran allowing 15 runs (13 earned).

Rookie Alex Sanabia (1-1, 2.12 ERA) goes for his second career victory, as the Marlins' right-hander beat the Nationals his last time out, 1-0. Sanabia is the lone Florida starter that probably appreciates his shaky bullpen, as the relief staff tossed 9.1 innings of scoreless baseball in his two starts. Relying on the Marlins' bullpen can only take one so far with Sanabia not throwing more than 78 pitches in any of his first two starts.

The Braves are 4-2 against the Marlins this season, including a series victory at Turner Field over 4th of July weekend. All three meetings at Sun Life Stadium finished 'over' the total as Atlanta grabbed two of three in late May.

Blue Jays at Tigers - 7:05 PM EST

Detroit captured the series opener over Toronto in comeback fashion by scoring five unanswered runs in a 5-2 victory on Thursday. The Tigers have won their last two games, which doesn't seem like a big deal, but Detroit needed to bounce back following a seven-game skid. The Jays have struggled after a three-game sweep at Baltimore by losing three of their last four.

The Tigers send out Rick Porcello (4-7, 5.63 ERA), who looks for his first win in two months. The 21-year old was sent down to Triple-A Toledo to work on his mechanics, but failed to register a win in his first start back with the big club in a 2-1 defeat at Cleveland. Porcello pitched well in that loss, tossing eight innings of six-hit ball and allowing one earned run. The Tigers are 1-5 in Porcello's last six starts as a favorite, but the righty managed a 7-2 home victory over the Jays last September.

Shaun Marcum (8-4, 3.36 ERA) has pitched on the highway in five of his previous six starts, coming off a 10-1 thrashing of Baltimore on Sunday. Toronto is 6-3 in Marcum's nine road outings this season, but half of those wins are at Baltimore and Arizona. Marcum hasn't faced the Tigers in nearly two years, as the righty picked up a 7-2 win at Comerica Park on August 11, 2008, scattering eight hits and two earned runs in six innings of work.

Six of Detroit's last seven games have finished 'under' the total, while the Tigers are 18-3 the previous 21 games as a home favorite. Toronto's offense has been hit-or-miss since the break, plating at least 10 runs twice, but also being limited to four runs or less five times.

Angels at Rangers - 8:05 PM EST

The top two dogs in the AL West get together for the second of a four-game set in Arlington. The Rangers began the series with a five-game lead over the Angels, as Texas picked up series victories at Boston and Detroit to begin the second half. The Halos were able to keep pace with four wins in six games against the Mariners and Yankees.

A pair of left-handers takes the mound as C.J. Wilson and Joe Saunders hit the hill. Wilson (8-5, 3.23 ERA) picked up a win as a nice road underdog at Boston his last time out, striking out 10 in 6.2 innings of a 4-2 victory. The former closer has turned in his best efforts at home, as the Rangers are 8-3 in his 11 starts at Ameriquest Field. This is the first time in five home starts that Wilson is listed as less than a $2.00 favorite, as he faced Baltimore, Houston, Cleveland, and Seattle in his previous four home outings.

Saunders (6-9, 4.83 ERA) continues to baffle bettors with his inconsistent ways, allowing 20 hits and 10 runs in his last two starts. Prior to those two horrible outings, the Angels' lefty gave up just three runs in 15 innings to the Royals and Rockies. The one team Saunders doesn't want to see is the Rangers, who racked the southpaw for 20 runs in three losses to Texas last season.

Texas is a solid 20-11 in Game 2's this season, but hopes to improve on a 3-7 record the last 10 games at home. The Angels haven't been much better on the highway, losing eight of ten dating back to late June.

vegasinsider.com

MLB RoundUp For 7/23
Dan Bebe

National League

Cardinals @ Cubs (-159) with a total of N/A
Well, let's see. Randy Wells did TRY to make a start against the Cardinals earlier this year, but didn't get too far. He failed to record an out while surrendering 5 runs in 6 hits. Thus, no surprise, averaging "infinite" into an ERA against a particular team is probably going to inflate it. Still, he's 0-2 with a 10.13 ERA against St. Louis, and this game is almost entirely about determining which factor prevails. We know Suppan is finally starting to get a little rhythm, so he'll probably be serviceable. But, will we get the Randy Wells that can't retire a Cardinal, or the one that has made 4 straight super-strong starts? Decide that, and you've got your play.

Rockies @ Phillies (-199) with a total of 7.5
REMATCH! Interestingly, Cook and the Rockies actually won the first go-round, though neither pitcher received a decision in that Rockies 4-3 win at Coors. Halladay's numbers are still quite impressive against Colorado, 1-0 with a 1.17 ERA, which actually went up after his 6 inning, 2-earned game to which we're referring. Cook is 1-5 with a 5.70 ERA against Philadelphia, and this game looks, on paper, like the world's easiest choice, but trust me when I say that things are rarely this simple. The Phillies are fighting it, offensively, like you wouldn't believe, though they did get a nice 2-0 extra-inning win over the Cards yesterday. I would be inclined to look at the total, since home RLs are absolutely a recipe for disaster.

Padres (-119) @ Pirates with a total of 8
This line is awfully low for one of the best teams in the NL. I realize the Pirates have been mashing at the plate, but if there's a club out there that can send another team into an offensive tailspin, you'd have to figure it's the Padres. Kevin Correia remains something of a weak link in the Padres rotation. He's the consistently poor starter, though usually he can be counted on to go 5-6 innings, at the very least. He's 1-1 with a 3.26 ERA against the Pirates. Maholm, on the other side, is coming off a complete game shutout of the Astros, and has a 3.05 ERA against the Padres. He's 0-2 against them, no surprise there, since he pitches for a terrible team. Still, I can't get over how cheap the Padres can be had against, arguably, the worst team in the NL. Hmm...

Braves @ Marlins (-119) with a total of 8.5
Say what? Alex Sanabia, making only his 3rd Major League start, is favored over a recognizable name on the single best team in the National League? I can't believe we're handicapping two games in a row with super-strange lines. Sanabia, to his credit, is slowly getting extended, and has yet to allow an earned run as a starter, but I mean, these are the Braves, after all. Lowe is 6-3 with a 4.88 ERA against the Marlins in his career, hasn't faced them this season, and is coming off 2 starts where he's been rather inefficient with his pitches. Jorge Cantu, Hanley Ramirez, and Dan Uggla have all hit Lowe hard throughout their careers, so I suppose there are a few reasons to look at the Fish, but again, the decision looms - is this a gift line for the ultra-tough Braves, giving credit to the Marlins, or is this line accurate because of a Lowe meltdown?

Reds (-170) @ Astros with a total of 8
This is an outrageously overpriced line. This is one of those rare occasions where you don't even really have to check out who's been doing what to know that this line is the result of the Reds recent run of publicity, thanks to the All Star Break, and being in 1st place for a while. But, because we're thorough, here are some quick notes. Travis Wood has been a nice young addition to the starting rotation, 0-1 with a 2.03 ERA, unable to collect a win thanks to some offensive issues, and that's precisely why the Reds are overpriced. They're not hitting right now, losing 2 straight to the Nats heading into this series. Bud Norris is a stinker, in general, but with the Reds struggles, I imagine he'll improve on his 9.00 ERA against Cincy to this point, though it might not be by much.

Nationals @ Brewers (-129) with a total of 9.5
This is truly the day of lines significantly closer than expected. The Nationals were just a +180 road dog in Cincinnati yesterday, blasted them, and now, with maybe the team's worst starter on the hill, with a 6.55 ERA against the Brewers, he's barely a dog? I realize that Chris Narveson, the Brewers' starter, is abysmal, but he's 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA against the Nats, and I worry, to some small degree, that the Nationals are actually getting a tiny bit too much credit, here. I think the line might be too fishy to play either side, but you can best bet you'll get a lot of folks that play the Nationals just because this line is so low. Make sure you have a good reason to pull the trigger on this game.

Giants (-124) @ D'backs with a total of 9
This game is extremely interesting, to me, for a few reasons. First, Jonathan Sanchez. He's 7-6 with a 3.42 ERA on the season, coming off a nice start (in a losing effort) against the Mets, and has pitched relatively well against Arizona this year. However, in his career, Sanchez is 5-6 with a 4.93 ERA, not too impressive, and 2-3 with a 5.47 ERA here at Chase Field. He has a WHIP of 1.91 here, and the D'backs bat over .300 against him at this venue. That's the key, here. Sanchez is not likely to duplicate his success at home against a hotter Arizona team, on the road. The problem? Edwin Jackson is suffering through a poor July that is threatening to push his ERA back up into the 5's after a solid June brought it down to a reasonable number. The Over is a possibility, if we were certain the Giants would do their part, offensively - this one is, as noted, an intriguing game, and I think we can dig something up.

Mets @ Dodgers (-125) with a total of 7
This is the baseball equivalent of the classic comedy, "Dumb and Dumber." You have hot, and hotter, among the pitchers, and cold, and colder, among everyone else on the team. Vicente Padilla, in typical fashion, has that fastball that really runs up the velocity come Summer, and he's been straight dominant since June 25, including 2 straight starts without allowing an earned run. Johan Santana is coming off a tremendous start against the Giants, and he is just owning July. Typical Johan, to come on strong in the second half. Will either offense get anything going? Santana is 3-0 with an 0.44 ERA lifetime against the Dodgers, and Padilla is 10-3 with a 3.54 ERA lifetime against the Mets. On top of that, Johan went 6 shutout frames against LA earlier this year. Can the bullpens go a game without a complete meltdown?

American League

Royals @ Yankees (-229) with a total of 10.5
This one doesn't fit into the "autobet the dog" category, and thank heavens for that. Bannister is 1-2 with a 15.07 ERA against the Yankees in his career, and Burnett has an ERA of 3.32 against the Royals in his. On top of that, Burnett is slightly undervalued, even on the Yankees, thanks to his poor start against the Rays, and the misconception that he has nothing left. Burnett was pitching with lacerations on his pitching hand, and was completely unable to control his curve, a nasty pitch for anyone's that watched him. The Royals collect more than their fair share of singles, and I just don't feel like that will be enough in this one. The Yanks have been a bit of a run line monster, so contrary to everything I believe in, if you're going to make a play on this one, I actually happen to think the Yanks lay a beating on KC.

Twins (-145) @ Orioles with a total of 9
It's easy to forget, Jeremy Guthrie actually has had some decent games in his career, and a few of them have come against the Twins. He beat them once this season, already, so don't immediately toss some cash on Minnesota just because they're the better team. This one really requires some thinking through. I do like Duensing, and I think he should have been in this rotation much earlier than now. He's been extremely consistent as a starter, and while he might not have the sheer stuff to dominate the better teams, he should be able to give a quality effort against the Orioles. If both starters pitch well, you might be inclined to grab the Under, but beware the bullpens. I wouldn't be at all shocked to see 5 runs scored in the final 2 innings, though I suppose the Under is probably still the better lean, if you're looking at the total. On the side, just be careful.

Rays (-149) @ Indians with a total of 8
REMATCH! Wrap your head around this stat. The Rays have lost 17 straight games in Cleveland. The Indians are playing rather solid baseball, right now, which might play some role in keeping this line fairly low, but I still think that, at this price, we're going to see a lot of tickets being printed for the Rays. Carmona is 3-1 against the Rays, but his 5.52 ERA against them is a little disconcerting. Niemann is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA against Cleveland. Carmona has pitched well enough twice against Tampa already this year, though both of those were down in Florida. It's not as though we have a ton to work with, but Tampa isn't exactly world-beating right now, and the starters have been right at the center of it. I think Niemann might actually be the best of the Rays starters, these days, but there's something intriguing about backing Cleveland in every game of this series, and just banking on the dog being the casher.

Blue Jays @ Tigers (-120) with a total of 9
I think this game is another one where we simply have to ask one question - is Rick Porcello really back, or was his first start back from the Minors a flash in the pan? He's 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA against the Jays, but a confident pitcher doesn't care about history. And truthfully, if he keeps those sinkers down, Toronto is going to be hard-pressed to jack a few out. On the other side, Marcum hasn't faced Detroit in some time, and the current Tigers haven't done much against him, but at the same time, Marcum seems to be hitting a tiny bit of a wall. He pitched well in his last start, but only went 5 innings, and it seems like Toronto is being careful with him. That Jays pen is decent, overall, but it has some holes, and if the Tigers are getting on another home win streak, it'd be a little on the saucy side to fade it.

Angels @ Rangers (-205) with a total of 10
Joe Saunders is terrible against the Rangers, but Wilson hasn't done much against the Angels, either. Thus, this line is pretty close to where I'd expect, though perhaps a tiny bit inflated for the home team because of how well Texas has been playing. In a rivalry series, though, lines shouldn't be quite this high, in general, but I'm not the kind of guy to take a longshot with Joe freaking Saunders. Also, this total has already been beefed up, so while I'd love to take an Over with these two cats on the hill, we'd be fighting against the line, and that's no way to win, long term. Leave this one alone.

White Sox @ Athletics (-149) with a total of 7.5
Mark Buerhle is a very strange 3-12, with a 3.93 ERA against the A's. Why he can't seem to beat Oakland is something of a mystery, but even so, I happen to think this line is a little bit too high on the Oakland side. Cahill's having an outstanding sophomore season, getting burned a little bit lately by the home run ball, specifically with runners on base, and Chicago is just the kind of team that can square one up at a most inopportune moment. Well, perhaps Toronto is a better example, but the Sox have some sock in the middle of that lineup, especially if Carlos Quentin can get back in there in time for this one. Buerhle is going to throw strikes, most likely, but word on the street is that Bobby Jenks is out as the closer, so the back of the pen is in a little bit of tumult, and I might wait before taking a shot in this series.

Red Sox (-124) @ Mariners with a total of 8
This is another eerily low line, considering the name of the pitcher involved, and from a handicapping standpoint, it makes a ton of sense. From a line-setting standpoint, I'm a little taken aback. The Mariners are a complete offensive disaster, and I feel like we escaped doom when they scored a couple runs in extra innings 2 days back to get a rare win. Jason Vargas is quietly having a tremendous year, without the benefit, seemingly, of ever striking anyone out. Still, keeping the ball down, and consequently, in the yard, here in Seattle, means you've always got a chance. He's 0-0 with a 1.69 ERA against the Red Sox, who are in a fairly significant offensive rut, too, due to injury. Does Beckett come back with a flourish? Does it matter, if he's limited in innings and pitches? Mariners are a live dog, but can you back a team that might score 2-3 runs, if you're lucky?

Diamond Trends - Friday
By Vince Akins

Reds at Astros – The Astros are 3-0 since September 06, 2009 when Bud Norris starts as a 140+ dog after the team lost his last two starts for a net profit of $600.

White Sox at Athletics – The White Sox are 7-0 since May 25, 2009 as a dog when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $885. The Athletics are 8-0 since May 07, 2009 as a home favorite when they won by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $800.

Nationals at Brewers – The Brewers are 0-5 since April 28, 2010 when Christopher Narveson starts when the bullpen has allowed at least one run for two straight games for a net profit of $540 when playing against.

Cardinals at Cubs – The Cardinals are 11-0 since July 23, 2009 after a loss in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base for a net profit of $1120. The League is 11-0 since May 31, 2010 as a home 140+ favorite vs a divisional foe that is ahead of them in the divisional standings for a net profit of $1100.

Giants at Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks are 0-17 since May 05, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1730 when playing against.

Mets at Dodgers – The Mets are 0-11 since July 22, 2009 as a road dog after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings for a net profit of $1100 when playing against. The Dodgers are 9-0 since May 10, 2010 as a favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last three games for a net profit of $900.

Rays at Indians – The Rays are 6-0 since April 13, 2010 when Jeff Niemann starts as a road favorite for a net profit of $600.

Braves at Marlins – The Braves are 6-0 since August 20, 2009 as a dog when they came back from a deficit to win in their starter's last start for a net profit of $740.

Twins at Orioles – The Orioles are 0-8 since September 13, 2009 when Jeremy Guthrie starts as a dog after a quality start for a net profit of $800 when playing against.

Rockies at Phillies – The Rockies are 0-5 since April 19, 2010 when Aaron Cook starts on the road in the first game of a series for a net profit of $540 when playing against. The Phillies are 6-0 since April 16, 2010 when Roy Halladay starts as a favorite after giving up no walks for a net profit of $600.

Padres at Pirates – The Padres are 10-0 since August 28, 2009 on the road after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits for a net profit of $1250. The Padres are 7-0 since June 06, 2009 when Kevin Correia starts after giving up 2 or more home runs for a net profit of $855.

Angels at Rangers – The Angels are 6-0 since April 12, 2009 as a 140+ dog after a one run loss for a net profit of $1045. The Rangers are 11-0 since July 31, 2009 as a home favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1100. The Rangers are 8-0 since April 22, 2010 when C.J. Wilson starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $880.

Blue Jays at Tigers – The Blue Jays are 0-8 since May 23, 2009 on the road after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $855 when playing against. The Tigers are 12-0 since April 29, 2010 at home when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit for a net profit of $1255.

Royals at Yankees – The Royals are 0-13 since May 13, 2009 when Brian Bannister starts as a dog after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1300 when playing against. The Yankees are 9-0 since May 31, 2010 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which they had 12+ hits for a net profit of $900.