Southpaw Friday
By Judd Hall
Most of the country will have the day off this Friday for the Fourth of July. And what better way to celebrate our independence than placing a dollar or 100 on some baseball. Nothing more American than that, right?
There are six teams sending out a left-handed pitcher to start on Friday. Let’s take a look at how the opposition stacks up against southpaws.
Blue Jays at Yankees – 1:05 p.m. EDT
New York has been rolling with seven straight wins to keep pace with the Red Sox in the American League East. The betting shops expect the Yanks to take Game 1 against Toronto after listing them as $1.80 home favorites (risk $180 to win $100) with a total of 9 ½.
If I had to take a guess, the sportsbooks noticed that the Blue Jays will be sending leftie Brian Tallet (5-5, 4.47 ERA) to the mound. Toronto has lost three of Tallet’s last four starts, averaging just under four runs per game. That isn’t bad output for the offense, except for the fact that Tallet’s ERA is 5.82 that stretch.
The Yankees are also seeing the ball extremely well against left-handers. They are third in the big leagues with a .293 batting average, 32 homers and 123 runs scored. Numbers like that tend to validate New York’s 14-7 record against left-handed pitching this season.
Braves at Nationals – 6:35 p.m. EDT
On the outside, the Braves would look like the play here as $1.40 home faves with a total of 9 ½ in Washington. The numbers support Atlanta here as they’re 14-7 against southpaws this season while batting .272 with 18 home runs. Then you consider that the Nationals are trotting out lefty Ross Detwiler (0-4, 5.24 ERA) to start.
What does make you shy away is the fact that Detwiler has done relatively well in his last two starts at home, going 1-1 with a 3.46 earned run average. Also, Atlanta has lost four of its last five games on the road against southpaws this year.
Rays at Rangers – 8:05 p.m. EDT
Tampa Bay may have dropped its last game against the Blue Jays, but they’ve still won eight of its last 10 contests. The Rays are even putting Scott Kazmir on the mound in the perfect “right back” spot: it’s Kazmir’s second start back from a break on the disabled list. What poses a problem here is Las Vegas Sports Consultants installing Tampa Bay as a $1.35 road “chalk” with a total of 10 ½. It almost smells of a trap for bettors considering Kazmir is 4-0 with a 2.09 ERA in seven career starts against Texas.
The Rangers are 22nd in the big leagues against left-handed pitching with a .253 average and 36 four-baggers and 111 runs scored. Texas has posted a 16-11 mark against left-handers this season. Plus, Ron Washington’s club is 9-3 in their last 12 games at the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington versus southpaws.
Tigers at Twins – 8:10 p.m. EDT
I bet there are a lot of people that will be salivating at taking Detroit as a $1.60 road pup against the Twins. The reason for the hype would be the Tigers sending out southpaw Luke French to make his major league debut. French has gone 4-4 with a 2.98 ERA in 13 starts for AAA Toledo this season. So not only do you have a lefty facing Minnesota, it’s a guy that they have never seen before.
It is true that the Twins have gone just 12-15 for the season against left-handed pitchers. However, Minnesota has been hitting them well as evidenced by a .276 batting average with 21 homers 117 total runs. So why are the Twinkies heavy $1.55 home faves? They’re favored because they have owned left-handers at home in nighttime games to the tune of a 9-1 record.
White Sox at Royals – 8:10 p.m. EDT
The Royals have fallen hard times since their torrid start to the season. But they are sending Zach Greinke (10-3, 1.95 ERA) out to start, which makes it understandable whey Kansas City is a $1.40 home “chalk.”
What makes the White Sox a reasonable wager as $1.20 road ‘dogs is John Danks (6-6, 4.08 ERA). Chicago’s lefty has gone 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA in his last three starts. Plus, Kansas City is 11-16 for the year against left-handed pitchers…2-8 in the past 10 tilts. Also, Chicago is 4-1 in Danks’ last five starts as a road pup.
Diamondbacks at Rockies – 8:10 p.m. EDT
It’s not been wise to play against the Rockies over the past month. And it won’t be any smarter in this series opener against Arizona. Colorado is listed as a $1.30 home favorite with a total of 10. Sounds like a small line with leftie Jorge De La Rosa (4-7, 5.64 ERA) getting the start for the Rox. Especially since De La Rosa is 4-1 with a pretty high ERA of 6.18.
This should be a bet you can feel confident in as the D-Backs have been horrible against left-handers this year, as evidenced by their 8-14 mark in 2009. Another nugget of knowledge is that Arizona has gone a paltry 2-7 this year against southpaw pitchers away from Chase Field.
vegasinsider.com
Friday's streaking and slumping starters
By Covers.com
Streaking
Scott Kazmir (Tampa Bay Rays)
You’d think a pitcher who has allowed at least seven earned runs in two of his past three starts wouldn’t be featured under streaking. But those two debacles were last month before the Rays ace went on the DL.
In his first start back on June 27, he struck out five and allowed only two runs in five innings of a 3-2 win over the Marlins. More importantly, Kazmir, who has struggled with control problems this season, walked only one batter.
"The repetition of his delivery, I really like that a lot," Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon told the Associated Press. "I just thought he had a better feeling that if he needed to throw a strike he could, whereas in the past I don't think he necessarily had that feeling."
Zack Greinke (Kansas City Royals)
The early AL Cy Young favorite fell back to earth after several pedestrian starts to begin the month, but Greinke appears to be heating up with the weather.
Greinke yielded a combined 12 earned runs in his first three starts of the month and appeared to be reverting back to the form that had kept him off most casual fans’ radar the past few seasons. But after giving up only one run over eight innings in a win against Houston on June 23, he built on the strong showing by allowing just two runs in 6 1-3 innings in a 3-2 win over Pittsburgh last week.
"He's got a fastball that he can throw from 93 [mph] and he can hump it up to close to 100 if he wants to," Detroit's Brandon Inge told the Associated Press. "He has a sinker if he wants to throw it. He has a changeup. The fun part comes when he has a slow curve and he can make it a little faster."
Slumping
Ross Detwiler (Washington Nationals)
The 23-year-old left-hander suffered from a huge problem in June – keeping runners off base.
In 29 2-3 innings last month, Detwiler allowed a staggering 36 hits to go along with 12 walks. Those numbers are a strong reflection of why he has struggled to an 0-4 record with a 5.24 ERA. And his last start did nothing to inspire confidence, as he yielded five runs in five innings of an 11-1 loss to the Orioles.
"I was Terrible. I left the ball up all game,” Detwiler told the Associated Press. “That's why they had nine hits and were hitting it hard all night."
Jeff Suppan (Milwaukee Brewers)
The Brew Crew’s right-hander is need of a break, but don’t look for the Chicago Cubs to cut him any slack.
Suppan (5-6, 4.86 ERA) has a mediocre fastball and relies on location and making hitters out-think themselves. Instead, they have been out-thinking him. The hurler has gotten tagged in each of his past three starts, yielding a combined 12 earned runs in 16 2-3 innings.
And facing the Cubs only makes things harder. Two of Suppan’s losses have come against Chicago. In those defeats he combined to allow eight runs and walked eight batters in just 9 2-3 innings.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
N.Y. Mets (39-39) at Philadelphia (39-37)
After a quick jaunt to Pittsburgh for a makeup game Thursday, the Mets send veteran righty Livan Hernandez (5-3, 4.04 ERA) to the mound in Philadelphia to face Phillies’ starter Rodrigo Lopez (0-0, 0.00), making his first start in the big leagues in almost two years.
New York scored a 10-inning, 9-8 victory over the Pirates on Thursday but burned seven pitchers when starter Tim Redding couldn’t get out of the third inning after giving up five runs on six hits. It was the second consecutive win for the Mets after losing five straight. They are on runs of 14-6 against the N.L. East and 15-6 in the first game of a series, but everything else is on the negative side of the slate, including 1-4 as an underdog, 3-7 as a road ‘dog and 1-5 against teams with winning records.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia was being swept in the finale of a three-game set in Atlanta on Thursday, falling 5-2, with a struggling offense that managed just seven runs in the three-game series. The Phillies have lost six of eight overall and 12 of 15. They are on further slides of 0-6 at home, 1-6 in series openers, 0-8 against right-handed starters and 5-16 at home against right-handers. In this rivalry, the Mets are 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Philly.
Hernandez is 3-1 on the road this season with a 4.47 ERA and he’s been solid for the Mets lately, holding the opposition to three runs or less in seven of his last eight starts. Sunday, he gave up three runs on three hits in seven innings at home to the Mets, but lost 4-2. He hasn’t faced the Phillies since 2006 when he was a starter for the Nationals, but for his career he is 10-8 with a 3.36 ERA in 24 career starts. With Hernandez on the hill, New York is 4-1 against the N.L. East but otherwise on slides of 0-4 as a road ‘dog, 0-4 overall and 1-5 on the road overall.
Lopez is being called up from Triple-A Lehigh Valley to make his first start since 2007. In 2006 he led the American League with 18 losses and he’s trying to make a comeback from elbow ligament replacement surgery in 2007. He is 65-65 with a 4.80 ERA in 187 games for the Padres, Orioles and Rockies. He was 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA in his last three starts for Lehigh Valley.
The Mets have stayed below the total in four of Hernandez’s last five starts and 36 of their last 59 Friday games, but as a team they have topped the total in six of seven series openers and five of seven on the road against winning teams. Philadelphia is on “under” runs of 6-0 on Fridays, 8-3-2 in series openers and 11-5-1 as a home chalk. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is 5-2-1 in the last eight overall and 4-0-1 in the last five in the City of Brotherly Love.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Toronto (42-38) at N.Y. Yankees (45-33)
After having their seven-game winning streak snapped Thursday the Yankees will send right-hander A.J. Burnett (6-4, 3.93 ERA) to the mound to try and get a new streak going against Blue Jays’ southpaw Brian Tallet (5-5, 4.47) at Yankee Stadium.
New York lost 8-4 in the series finale against the Mariners on Thursday after rattling off seven straight wins. The new stadium has been good to the Yankees, who have gone 17-8 in their last 25 at home. They are also on runs of 11-3 against left-handers, 46-23 as a favorite, 6-2 at home against teams with winning records and 5-1 in series openers.
Toronto was idle on Thursday but the Jays have struggled lately, going 1-4 overall, 3-11 against division foes and 1-4 against winning teams. New York took two of three in Toronto back in mid-May and has won four of the last six head-to-head meetings.
Tallet is 1-1 in his last three starts with a 2.65 ERA but he got roughed up against the Phillies on Sunday, allowing five runs (four earned) on eight hits in six innings of a 5-4 home loss. He’s faced the Yankees back on May 14 and gave up two runs on four hits in six innings of a 3-2 loss in Toronto. With Tallet on the hill, the Blue Jays are 3-7 in his last 10 starts, 1-4 in his last five, 1-6 when he’s an underdog and 1-4 in series openers.
Burnett has been lights out in his last three, going 2-1 with a 0.44 ERA. He’s allowed two runs (one earned) in those three starts, including two shutout wins over the Mets and a 2-1 loss to the Marlins. He faced these Blue Jays on May 12 and allowed five runs on seven hits over 7 2/3 innings of a 5-1 loss in Canada. With Burnett on the hill, New York is 0-4 against the A.L. East, but 5-2 at home and 4-0 when he’s a favorite.
With Tallet throwing, the Blue Jays are on “under” streaks of 7-3 overall, 5-0 against A.L. East rivals, 4-0 on the road and 5-1 as an underdog. Along the same lines, with Burnett pitching, the Yankees are on “under” runs of 7-2-1 overall and 4-1 in series openers.
As a team, Toronto is on “under” streaks that include 20-8 against A.L. East squads, 11-5 on the road, 6-2 as a road ‘dog, 5-0-1 overall and 5-0-1 against teams with a winning record. The Yankees have stayed under the total in four of five against A.L. East teams, eight of seven Friday games and 15 of 24 home games against southpaws.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
Gametimepicks.com
Mariners - Red Sox Preview
By Sportspic
A pair of solid hurlers matchup Friday when Red Sox Tim Wakefield (10-3, 4.18) and Mariners Felix Hernandez (8-3, 2.54) open up a three game set at Fenway Park. Wakefield rock solid for the Red Sox all season not only heads to the mound undefeated in five starts (5-0 TSR +$535) but also enters a perfect 6-0 at home with Sox winning all seven starts outscoring visitors 8.1 to 3.1. Mariners Hernandez has been virtually untouchable his last six trips to the mound surrendering a measly 6 runs over 45 innings of work guiding Mariners to a 5-1 record and enters this contest 5-1 (7-2 TSR) on the highway with a miniscule 1.72 ERA. Thinking side, keep in mind Red Sox are 1-7 last eight vs Marniers with Wakefield touching toe to rubber, Hernandez is 3-1 life-time vs Red Sox with Mariners winning four of the six encounters. For those considering a total play, the 'Under' has prevailed in 9-of-12 meetings (9-2-1), Wakefield is 4-1 'Under' last five vs Mariners, Hernandez is 4-2 'Under' facing Red Sox.
How to Handle Manny's Return to Dodgers
by T.O. Whenham
The circus comes to L.A. on Friday. That's when the disgraced and seemingly clueless Manny Ramirez makes his return to action for the Dodgers after serving a 50-game suspension for a failed drug test. The return will obviously set off a media firestorm, so we will be subjected to even more ridiculous 'insights' than we have had to hear from experts over the course of the last two months. That will be incredibly annoying.
The situation will be a very difficult one for bettors to get a quick handle on as well. It's very rare to see the best team in baseball make a major roster change, never mind one with so much uncertainty, emotion, and potential for disaster. As we get ready for Manny's return there are all sorts of questions that we have to, at the very least, consider. Here's a good look at several of them:
His form - Ramirez has been reasonably healthy throughout his career, so this is by far the longest absence he has had to come back from. That means we can't be sure how he is going to come back. The best we can do is look back to 2002 when he missed 30 games for the Red Sox with an injury. He was just 5-for-26 (.192) in his first week back from that injury. The setback wasn't lasting, though - he wound up the season hitting .349 with 107 RBI. This could be different because Ramirez isn't hurt, but we still don't know how he will play. His brief stints with two minor league teams tell us absolutely nothing - he wasn't facing major league pitching, and he certainly didn't seem committed to the situations.
The 'S' word - Ramirez tested positive for a substance used to mask steroids, so it seems like we could assume he was on some form of performance enhancing drugs at some point. That opens up all sorts of questions - What was he on? When was he on them? Is he still on anything? How much of an impact did they make on his game? What effect does coming off them have? We're in a very cynical era in baseball, and it's situations like this that unfortunately make it very easy to be cynical. Because we can no longer be sure exactly who Ramirez is we can't be sure who he will be when he returns.
His attitude - When Manny is at his best he is a funny, relaxed, pleasingly bizarre dude. When he's at his worst, like in his final days in Boston, he can make life miserable for himself and everyone around him. A lot of what happens in the immediate future will depend upon how Ramirez is feeling and how he reacts to what probably won't be a particularly pleasant situation. If he handles it with grace and dignity then the whole thing could blow over faster than we could ever dream. If he gets feisty, or if he pouts, though, then things could really get ugly. It's a volatile time in L.A.
Fan reaction - We can't be sure how fans in Dodgers Stadium are going to react to his return - probably in a very mixed way. We can be much more sure how he will be treated on the road - not well. Strong negative reactions can not only affect the player who is the subject of them, but also the rest of his team as well.
His reaction to fan reaction - As with his attitude, the reaction Manny has to the fan reaction will dictate much of how the situation plays out. He has yet to really face the music so far, but if he does decide to take some responsibility for what he did ad to react with humility then he'll be just fine. If he acts like nothing ever happened, though, or even worse he gets defensive or angry towards fans, then this could spin out of control.
Juan Pierre - There is no one in a more unfortunate spot in all this than Pierre. He was forced to step in to take over for Ramirez in left field, and he has been brilliant. His batting average is at a career high, and he already has more RBI than he has had since 2005. Now that Ramirez is back Pierre is back to being the fourth outfielder. He'll get some starts in left and center, but not nearly as much playing time as he has had recently. The team likely won't see a fall in production with the return of Manny, but they will miss the spark that Pierre has brought to things this year. He gets on base a fair bit, and he is always dangerous on the base paths. He also plays much, much better defense than Ramirez. He's not a better all-around package than Ramirez by any means, but it remains to be seen just how much the team will miss what he has to offer.
Team chemistry - When Manny came to L.A. last year he brought a light attitude to the clubhouse, and that showed on the field. When he was in Boston last year he had a negative attitude that bred resentment and tore the team apart. Whatever the Dodgers have going on in the clubhouse right now is obviously working, and there is no way that anyone who is not in that clubhouse can possibly have any idea how his return will be received by his teammates, and what it will do to the team. The team seems to be overachieving compared to what they have on paper, so the bubble could definitely burst if Ramirez poisons the clubhouse to even a small extent.
Docsports.com
Game of the day: Rays at Rangers
By David Chan
Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers (+120, 10.5)
East vs. West
The Rays and Rangers will hook up for the first time this season in Arlington Friday.
Only a half-game separates them in the American League standings, with the Rays holding the slim lead.
Tampa Bay took six of nine meetings a year ago, including four out of six in Texas. The Rays are now 11-5 in the last 16 matchups in the series.
Pitching matchup
Game 1 matches Scott Kazmir against Tommy Hunter.
Kazmir made his first start since May 20 against Florida last Saturday. He was effective over five innings, giving up only four hits and two runs while striking out five and walking one.
The Rays left-hander was on a pitch count in that start, but should be able to work deeper into the ball game Friday.
Kazmir owns an ugly 7.28 ERA this season, but hasn't been nearly as shaky on the road, where he is 3-1 with an ERA just north of four.
In seven previous starts against the Rangers, Kazmir is undefeated. He helped the Rays go 3-0 against the Rangers last season, winning twice here in Texas.
Tommy Hunter's first taste of the big leagues was more sour than sweet.
In three starts with the Rangers last August, Hunter gave up six, five, and nine earned runs.
This year has gone much better for Hunter. In two starts this season, he has given up only five earned runs. The Rangers split those two games, defeating the A's 6-3 and losing to the Padres 2-0.
Not surprisingly, Hunter has never faced the Rays.
Home on the range
The Rangers continue to make hay at home, where they're eight games above .500 this season.
The road hasn't been nearly as kind as Texas has suffered 18 losses compared to 17 victories.
They should have plenty of confidence after posting back-to-back wins against the rival Angels earlier this week, but don't tell that to Hank Blalock.
“If you think one game is more important than another, that means you’re not trying to win against a team with a worse record,” Blalock told the media. “You’ve got to take every game as serious as you can because once it gets later in the year, you start thinking about the games you let slip away.”
Even though Kazmir has owned them in the past, they have hit well against lefties at home this season, to the tune of a collective .284 BA.
Rays on a roll
Things looked bleak for the defending AL champs back in May. Was their World Series run a fluke?
Since May 29, the Rays have looked every bit like the team that played into late October last season.
They're 21-9 over their last 30 games, pulling themselves within five games of the division leading Red Sox, and two-and-a-half games behind the Wild Card leading Yankees.
“We’re on a good roll right now,” Carl Crawford to reporters earlier this week. “Hopefully we can keep it up. We’re still climbing back up the standings. We’re just trying to get into a groove and stay there.”
They're still a losing club on the road at 18-23, but have won five of their last nine games away from Tropicana Field including back-to-back series wins in New York (Mets) and Toronto.
Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
Friday, July 3
Detroit at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EDT). Kevin Slowey goes for his 11th win when the contending Twins host the AL Central-leading Tigers in the opener of a weekend series. Left-hander Lucas French is scheduled to make his first major league start for Detroit.
STARS
Thursday
-Derrek Lee, Cubs, hit a grand slam and a three-run homer for a career-high seven RBIs, and Chicago opened an 11-game homestand by beating the Brewers 9-5.
-Bobby Abreu, Angels, hit two home runs and Los Angeles beat the Orioles 5-2.
- Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals, rebounded from his shortest start of the season with 7 1-3 solid innings and St. Louis beat the Giants 5-2.
-Geoff Blum, Astros, hit a three-run homer and finished with four RBIs as Houston beat San Diego 7-2.
-Fernando Tatis, Mets, hit a two-run homer among his three hits and scored four times in New York's 9-8 victory over the Pirates in 10 innings.
UN-BEE-LIEVABLE
The Astros beat the San Diego Padres 7-2, but only after waiting out a 52-minute delay in the top of the ninth inning caused when a swarm of bees took over part of left field at Petco Park. A beekeeper was called to the downtown ballpark and sprayed a chair and a ballgirl's jacket that had attracted the bees. The swarm first appeared along the warning track. Later, fans were cleared out of several sections down the left-field line.
FINDING THE PLATE
Barry Zito threw 26 pitches before recording an out in the Giants' 5-2 loss to St. Louis.
BONUS BABIES
The St. Louis Cardinals gave a $3.1 million signing bonus to 16-year-old outfielder Wagner Mateo, considered to be among the top amateur free agents from Latin America. The New York Yankees on Thursday also gave a $3 million bonus to a 16-year-old Dominican prospect, catcher Gary Sanchez.
HE LOVES KC
The White Sox's Mark Buehrle improved to 20-8 against the Royals, allowing six hits and a run in 8 1-3 innings of a 4-1 win.
TEXAS DIP
Major League Baseball has loaned millions to Rangers owner Tom Hicks, Yahoo! reported. The league would not go into details about any borrowing, but said it was assisting Rangers owner Tom Hicks with the sale of the franchise. Yahoo!, citing a major league source, first reported that a loan was made to Hicks Sports Group and that the amount was believed to be for less than $15 million.
A WIN IN NEW YORK
Seattle beat New York 8-4, winning in the Bronx for the first time since Sept. 3, 2007, and ending a 10-game road losing streak against the Yankees.
CITIZEN BAY
Red Sox left fielder Jason Bay has long played America's pastime and will now be able to call himself an American. The 30-year-old player from Canada becomes a U.S. citizen in a ceremony at Boston's Faneuil Hall.
SWING BATTER
Russell Branyan struck out seven straight times in two nights before drawing a walk in the sixth inning of the Mariners' 8-4 win over the Yankees.
STATS
The Mets beat Pittsburgh 9-8 in 10 innings after trailing by five runs. The 5-0 deficit was the biggest overcome by the Mets for a win this season. ... Arizona lost - 3-2 to the Reds - for the 10th time in 12 games, falling a season-high 17 games under .500. ... Philadelphia has lost 12 of 15 and is only two games over .500.
SPEAKING
"I kind of saw one or two floating around my head. Then I turned around and there was a wall. I started to walk in and tried to get Everth (Cabrera) to call time. ... It was a pretty thick wall of bees and I really didn't want a piece of it.'' - San Diego left fielder Kyle Blanks after the Padres game against the Astros was delayed 52 minutes by a swarm of bees.