Friday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Ervin Santana (9-7, 3.55 ERA), Los Angeles Angels
The Angels can’t seem to make up any ground on the division-leading Rangers. Taking advantage of solid performances from their starting hurlers would certainly help out. Ervin Santana is enjoying a fantastic July with a 2.30 ERA, but the Halos are just 1-3 in his four starts this month.
Santana, who sometimes has a habit of getting taken out of the park, has surrendered just two big flies in the 31 1/3 innings this month. Not surprisingly, the under is 4-0 in his last four outings and 7-3 in his last 10 trips to the bump.
Wade Davis (8-9, 4.32 ERA), Tampa Bay Rays
Davis, sometimes forgotten in TB’s stacked five-man rotation, is 3-0 in his last three starts with a 2.11 ERA. The under is 7-1 in the 24-year-old righty’s last eight starts.
Johnny Cueto (10-2, 3.18 ERA), Cincinnati Reds
It seems like we’re praising Cueto every five days in this space. He pitched eight innings of shut-out ball in his last start improving to 4-0 in his last six appearances.
“I went out there today just concentrating on my location more,” Cueto told reporters through a translator. “I wanted to make sure I did not go out there and over throw. I just feel better and better every time I go out there.”
The Reds are 13-7 in games started by Cueto, but they’ve never been priced higher than -174 with him on the bump.
Slumping
Phil Hughes (12-3, 4.04 ERA), New York Yankees
You wouldn’t be able to tell Phil Hughes was slumping if you just looked at the win-loss column. The Georgia native is 2-2 in his last five starts despite owning a 6.52 ERA over the same period.
The over is also 10-2 in his last 12 appearances.
Friday Late Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The late Friday card in baseball showcases the state of California with three games to wrap up the night. The Dodgers and Giants renew acquaintances by the Bay, while the Padres try to open up their lead in the NL West when the Marlins invade Petco Park. We'll begin in Anaheim with the struggling Halos looking to end their losing ways against the division-leading Rangers.
Rangers at Angels - 10:05 PM EST
The season is slowly slipping away from the defending AL West champs as the Halos have dropped eight of 10 games to fall 8 ½ behind the Rangers. Even the sneaky Oakland A's have pulled ahead of Los Angeles in the division, as Ervin Santana tries to halt a four-game skid for the Angels.
Santana (9-7, 3.55 ERA) is responsible for the last L.A. win, beating the Rangers on Saturday in Arlington, 6-2. The Angels' right-hander has lost each of his last two home starts, falling to the Mariners and Royals as a substantial favorite each time. Santana either pitches up or down to the competition at home, as the Halos are 5-1 this season when he is listed as a $1.40 'chalk' or underdog, compared to a 1-3 mark when laying at least $1.50. The 'under' has been a profitable play for Santana, cashing in four straight starts.
Scott Feldman (5-9, 5.46 ERA) has failed to live up to last season's career year in which the Rangers' righty won a career-best 17 games. Since picking up consecutive road victories at Milwaukee and Houston in late June, Feldman has delivered just one quality start in his last six outings. Feldman scattered seven hits and three earned runs in 5.1 innings against the Angels in his last start, but Santana got the best of him as that was the lone win for Los Angeles in the four-game set.
The home team is 7-2 in the season series, while six games have been decided by one run. Four of the previous five matchups have finished 'under' the total, as the Angels are 5-2 the last seven home meetings with the Rangers.
Marlins at Padres - 10:05 PM EST
Florida continues its swing through the Golden State heading south to Petco Park against San Diego. The Padres still own the lead inside the NL West, which is turning into a two-team race with the recent struggles of the Dodgers and Rockies. San Diego is dealing with a hot San Francisco team that trails by 2 ½ games entering Thursday's action.
The Padres send out Wade LeBlanc (5-8, 3.35 ERA), who has just one win since June 13. The southpaw is making his first home start since Independence Day, a non-decision in a 3-2 victory over the Astros. LeBlanc has turned in quality starts in seven of his previous nine outings, including a 3-1 mark at Petco Park. One of the issues LeBlanc has dealt with recently is the lack of runs support, as the Padres have plated three runs or less in six of his last seven starts.
Chris Volstad (4-8, 4.76 ERA) makes his second start for the Marlins since getting recalled from Triple-A New Orleans. Volstad received a no-decision against the Braves, but together a nice outing by delivering six innings of five-hit ball and allowing three earned runs in a 5-4 win. The majority of Volstad's problems has come on the road, with the righty owning a 6.38 ERA, while Florida is 2-6 in eight starts on the highway. Volstad is just 1-2 in three career starts against the Padres, but did win at Petco Park last July, tossing seven innings in a 3-2 victory.
The Padres are a solid 5-1 against the Marlins this season, including a three-game sweep in South Florida last month. Florida looks to turn the tables in Southern California, where the Marlins own a 5-1 mark the last two seasons at Petco Park, while five games have finished 'under' the total.
Dodgers at Giants - 10:15 PM EST
The hottest team in baseball resides in the Bay Area, with the Giants winning 17 of 21 to lead the NL Wild Card race. Included in this run is San Francisco taking two of three at Los Angeles last week, revenging a three-game sweep by the Dodgers in early July. The Dodgers' offense has hit a snag, scoring 12 runs in the last seven games, but L.A. has managed a 5-2 mark in this stretch.
Reigning Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum (10-4, 3.12 ERA) bounced back from a subpar effort at Dodger Stadium to shut down the Diamondbacks in his last outing. Lincecum allowed nine hits in eight innings, but limited Arizona to two runs in a no-decision as San Francisco won in extras, 3-2. His previous outing at Los Angeles was one to forget, giving up five earned runs in 4.2 innings of a 7-5 comeback victory. Despite that poor performance, the Giants are 6-2 in Lincecum's eight career starts against the Dodgers, including a 3-0 mark at AT&T Park.
Carlos Monasterios (3-2, 3.30 ERA) is fresh off a scoreless outing against the Mets in his last start, scattering six hits in five innings as the Dodgers came through with a 3-2 victory. Monasterios has bounced back and forth between the big club and Triple-A Albuquerque, making two starts in the minors prior to Sunday's start. Los Angeles has managed a 5-2 mark in Monasterios' seven outings, despite only two starts coming on the road (1-1).
The visiting team is 6-3 this season, while the Dodgers are 3-0 at AT&T Park. Despite San Francisco capturing last week's set, Los Angeles leads the season series, 6-3. The Giants own a solid 12-4 record in series openers following a loss, as San Francisco was shut out by Florida, 5-0.
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MLB RoundUp For 7/30
By Dan Bebe
National League
Phillies (-172) @ Nationals with a total of 8.5
This price is out of my comfort zone to make a play on a game, but I happen to think it would be poor form to me to ignore Oswalt's first start for his new team in Philadelphia. And what have we seen from pitchers in a new uniform so far this season? Not much, in the way of great success. Cliff Lee got lit up by the Orioles, Dan Haren was pitching "okay" before getting drilled by a liner, Dontrelle Willis had his wheels come off after only about 2/3 of a start, and the list goes on and on. It isn't easy to just get thrust into a starting spot for a contender, with so many expectations and with your schedule in disarray. I wouldn't touch Oswalt with someone else's money in this one. I probably wouldn't back a guy, Stammen, who has a 15.63 ERA against Philadelphia, but the Over is in play, if indeed the Nats pen continues to stink, and if Oswalt has minor struggles, as I believe he will.
Braves @ Reds (-140) with a total of 8.5
This price is about right, I feel. Johnny Cueto is having a stellar season, and has been somewhat underappreciated, though only by a hair. Again, the Reds have been moved into that public category, so appreciated or not, the line isn't going to be cheap, but he mostly deserves it. Cueto is coming off 8 shutout innings against the Astros, and hasn't given up more than 2 earned runs in any start since June 12. Kris Medlen, for the Braves, has been, I'd wager, significantly better than even Atlanta expected when they moved him into a starter's role. That being said, there has definitely been a marked decline for Medlen, if only because when he first moved into a starter's spot, he was giving up 1-2 runs per game, and now some 4's and a 5 have crept in, and you have to think teams are adjusting. The Reds come home after finishing up hot against the Brewers, too.
D'backs @ Mets (-141) with a total of 8.5
Rematch alert! Here's my concern. I feel like we missed our chance, on this one. Pelfrey, after getting absolutely creamed in Arizona a couple weeks ago, is now 0-5 with a 6.75 ERA against the D'backs. Kennedy, after turning in a decent, if short performance against the Mets that same night, is 1-0 against New York. Can those same situations really play themselves out, again? I know Pelfrey is likely to get hit, since he's been straight up bad since mid June, but Kennedy going 5 strong again, with the Mets starting to muster a little offense at home strikes me as less likely. The line is fair, based off the last meeting, but when a pitcher, even a struggling one like Pelfrey, goes 1.2 innings and gives up 6 runs, he's going to be extra-focused and extra-pissed. I'd be careful before assuming the exact same thing happens in this one. The Over is a possibility.
Brewers @ Astros (-115) with a total of 8.5
A lot of repeating consonants in the starting pitcher matchup here, and plenty of the vowel "a", though I suppose none of that helps us. Parra is 4-3 with a 5.18 ERA against the Astros, and Happ is 1-0 with a 6.14 ERA against the Brewers. Parra has already collected a no-decision against Houston this year, going 5 innings and allowing 4 runs in a game the Brewers would eventually lose, 9-5. Happ, not surprisingly, has not faced Milwaukee this year. I already expressed above how I feel about backing pitchers in a new uniform, in the same League, and getting rushed into a start. I'm a little scared of Happ, though I must admit, the Astros being favored is always a reason to take a peek. Still, this game has a wide berth of potential outcomes based just on the inconsistency of the starters, and that makes it a tough side to bet.
Pirates @ Cardinals (-305) with a total of 7.5
Out of price, out of mind. Interestingly low total, considering how well the Cards hit at home.
Cubs @ Rockies (-126) with a total of 9
The pitcher histories make the Over look like the very first place to look, but then, digging deeper, I'm not so sure. Ryan Dempster is an ugly 3-2, 7.43 pitcher against the Rockies, and Francis, in limited action, is 0-0 with an 8.77 ERA against the Cubs, but we have to remember that those numbers have been accumulated over a long period of time with very spread-out meetings. For instance, no one on Colorado has more than 6 AB against Dempster in the last 5 years, so really, how accurate can that lifetime ERA truly be? On the other side, Francis has struggled with Derrek Lee, who just vetoed a trade to the Angels, and backup Xavier Nady. Colorado did get an easy win to avoid the sweep yesterday, so the bats might be waking up a tad, but Dempster is usually good for 5-6 innings and a couple runs, even at Coors. I've sort of talked myself into liking the Cubs side, but that team stopped hitting in Houston.
Marlins @ Padres (-135) with a total of 7
This line is creeping me out. I would have expected a number higher than this, so now we need to put our sleuthing monocles on and try to figure out why the number is so reasonable in what appears to be a pretty lopsided matchup. Admittedly, neither starter is lights out, but LeBlanc has better season numbers than Volstad, and Volstad has been one of the biggest money-losers in betting. Very odd, indeed. The Marlins can hit, so that could be keeping the line down, and they did manage to split 4 games in San Francisco, which was fairly impressive, all things considered. At the same time, though, when that offense gets shut down, Florida is in trouble, and the Padres can definitely frustrate teams. Not a ton of experience either way, in terms of the pitcher v. batter numbers, but we know who has the pen edge. This one deserves watching.
Dodgers @ Giants (-186) with a total of 7
If you want to talk about a team that is just not hitting at all, it's the Dodgers. They managed to squeeze wins out because of strong pitching, but the team hasn't scored more than 3 runs since July 20th. The Giants, meanwhile, got shut out by the Marlins yesterday, but have actually been doing some nice work at the plate, largely due to the infusion of energy of Buster Posey. There's going to be a time to back LA in this series, I can already tell, since they do play well at AT&T Park, but against Lincecum, I'm not sure it's the right time, especially since he started the aforementioned game on July 20th, and pitched very poorly. An angry Lincecum isn't one I want to mess with, and I'd say to look at the Under, but the Giants could score 7 by themselves if the Dodgers go to the "B-list" guys in the pen.
American League
Indians @ Blue Jays (-180) with a total of 8.5
Rematch alert! Interestingly, Masterson and the Indians won the first one. Though, perhaps I shouldn't be that surprised -- Marcum is now 0-3 against Cleveland in his career with a 5.34 ERA, and Masterson is 2-0 with a 2.04 ERA against the Jays. This line is pretty high, though, as Marcum was just a -125 favorite on the road, and a 55 cent swing is a little more than usual. Some of that can be chalked up to the Jays beating the piss out of Baltimore at home, and some can be attributed to the Indians getting slapped by the Yanks the last couple nights, but I think the majority of the swing is the rematch angle. Still, I'm not sold on Marcum, here. I know the Jays are playing good ball, but I still wouldn't take the favorite, here. This is a bad match-up for Marcum, and it looks like Toronto might be limiting his innings, too, given the elbow inflammation that landed him on a brief DL stint earlier this month.
Tigers @ Red Sox (-275) with a total of 8.5
Who knows, maybe a miracle will happen, but I won't be betting on it.
Yankees (-115) @ Rays with a total of 9
Phil Hughes, to me, is like Luke Skywalker when he's hanging from a pole beneath the Cloud City. Yep, you guys knew I was a nerd, so I'm going Star Wars with this one. I just feel like he's clinging for dear life in almost every start, and the Yankees just keep swinging that big-ass ship around to rescue him. I mean, look at the numbers. Only 2 of his last 7 starts have been quality, and yet, the Yanks have won 5 of those 7 starts. It's rare when a guy is getting such huge run support that he can go 4-2 over a stretch where he's giving up over 4 runs per start, and only going just a shade under 6 innings. On the other side, Wade Davis has been, let's call it "serviceable" lately, and I'd use that same adjective to describe his career work against the Yanks. This game is basically one question - will the Yankees slam Davis? You can make a ton of money with the answer to that.
Orioles @ Royals (-136) with a total of 9.5
The series we've all been waiting for, though I guess the opener last night didn't disappoint, with the O's taking it in extras. And, to be completely frank, I wouldn't be surprised to see the O's do it, again. They've quietly been hitting better, and now taking on some sorry competition (that happens to be losing players left and right to injury and trade) has made the Orioles an incredible bargain. We missed out on yesterday's tough one, so I don't want people to just jump on Baltimore out of regret. Let's break it down. Arrieta has been completely hit or miss, but against the Royals, who don't have much sock, he has a shot, if he can strand some runners. That being said, he's coming off 2 bad starts, and with young guys, that's always concerning that maybe the League is figuring them out. O'Sullivan was hit very hard in his brief work against Baltimore, so there's no way I'd touch that side. Orioles or the Over, here, though the total appears to be somewhat inflated, already.
Athletics (-126) @ White Sox with a total of 8.5
Doesn't setting Anderson up as the road favorite seem a little presumptuous, given his injury issues this year? He made 4 starts to begin the season, pitched well. He made 2 starts a month later, pitched alright before leaving early in the 2nd start, and hasn't thrown a game since June 3. How do we know he's fully healthy? Can we truly trust he's going to go deep into the game? I know Dan Hudson isn't exactly a pillar of hope, but I'm sure he'd like to exact some revenge on the A's, who beat him up a week ago. I know we've seen a trend of guys coming back from injury and looking pretty good in that first game, and that might happen again, here, but if he's not going 7 innings, that means a fair amount of bullpen work, and the A's pen is far better at home than on the road. This one is a little bit of a head-scratcher - let's see how the money comes in to get a better idea of the perception of Anderson.
Mariners @ Twins (-185) with a total of 8.5
Out of price, out of mind. Twins playing far too well to take a shot, here.
Rangers @ Angels with a total of 8.5
There's an opening line listed of Rangers -120 at a few places, but that was when Tommy Hunter was the expected starter. He's been moved back a day, and Scott Feldman will once again look to try not to embarrass himself. He's still among the tops on my fade list, however, this is a rematch, so that throws a tiny wrinkle into things. So, I'll issue the old Rematch Alert here in the middle of the paragraph, since I wanted to clear up the line issues first and foremost. Now, Feldman, can you do anything productive? I'm still not sure. I suppose my thoughts have veered to the total, somewhat. When these two cats faced off a week ago, the total was set at 10. I'm curious to see if this one adjusts its way up, but I think I'm seeing 9 as the highest out there, and 8.5 everywhere else. That tells you Feldman is going to pitch better, but how much better? Still seems like the Angels need this one more, but they've lost 7 of 8, and Santana's start was the only win in that stretch. Yikes.
Diamond Trends - Friday
By Vince Akins
Rangers at Angels - The Angels are 0-5 since July 03, 2009 when Ervin Santana starts at home in July for a net profit of $695 when playing against.
Brewers at Astros - The Brewers are 5-0 since August 28, 2009 when Manny Parra starts after facing 25 or fewer hitters for a net profit of $660.
Indians at Blue Jays - The Indians are 0-10 since August 25, 2009 when Justin Masterson starts after throwing more than 100 pitches at home for a net profit of $1010 when playing against. The Indians are 0-7 since August 08, 2009 when Justin Masterson starts on the road after his team scored a total of fewer than three runs in his last start for a net profit of $700 when playing against.
Pirates at Cardinals - The Pirates are 0-9 since July 10, 2009 on the road after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Pirates are 0-6 since May 02, 2010 when Jeff Karstens starts as a road dog for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Cardinals are 14-0 since July 17, 2009 as a 140+ favorite after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1400. The Cardinals are 6-0 since July 17, 2009 when Chris Carpenter starts at home in the first game of a series for a net profit of $600.
Dodgers at Giants - The Giants are 10-0 since June 12, 2009 as a home 140+ favorite after a loss and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $1000. The Giants are 9-0 since August 18, 2009 when Tim Lincecum starts as a favorite in the first game of a series for a net profit of $900. The Giants are 7-0 since June 09, 2009 after being shutout and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $740.
Diamondbacks at Mets - The Diamondbacks are 0-10 since April 16, 2010 when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $1005 when playing against. The Diamondbacks are 0-6 since May 14, 2010 when Ian Kennedy starts on the road for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Mets are 0-8 since June 24, 2010 when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $895 when playing against.
Phillies at Nationals - The Phillies are 9-0 since April 21, 2009 as a favorite when they are off a walk off win for a net profit of $900. The Nationals are 0-12 since April 27, 2009 as a 140+ dog when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $1200 when playing against.
Marlins at Padres - The Padres are 6-0 since September 21, 2009 when Wade LeBlanc starts as a favorite after a quality start for a net profit of $600.
Yankees at Rays - The Yankees are 11-0 since April 10, 2009 after a 5+ run win and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1115. The Yankees are 8-0 since April 28, 2009 on the road vs a team that has won at least their last three games for a net profit of $815.
Tigers at Red Sox - The Red Sox are 10-0 since April 19, 2009 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which they had more than ten team-left-on-base for a net profit of $1000. The Red Sox are 9-0 since July 11, 2009 as a home 140+ favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $900.
Braves at Reds - The Braves are 8-0 since June 03, 2010 when Kris Medlen starts after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $860. The Reds are 5-0 since September 06, 2009 when Johnny Cueto starts after he had a WHIP of less than one his last start for a net profit of $650.
Cubs at Rockies - The Cubs are 0-7 since May 09, 2009 when Ryan Dempster starts as a dog after a quality start at home for a net profit of $700 when playing against.
Mariners at Twins - The Mariners are 0-6 since April 24, 2010 when Doug Fister starts after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $645 when playing against. The Twins are 7-0 since May 08, 2009 when Scott Baker starts as a favorite when the bullpen has allowed at least one run for two straight games for a net profit of $700.
Athletics at White Sox - The White Sox are 9-0 since June 10, 2010 at home after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $905.