Friday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Joel Pineiro (9-6, 3.96 ERA), Los Angeles Angels
This 31-year-old righty was 3-6 with a 5.16 ERA on June 2. Things have gone much better for Pineiro and Angels backers since. The Halos are 6-0 in Pineiro’s last six outings and he delivered quality starts in five of those six trips to the bump.
He sports a tidy 1.45 ERA since June 11 and he hasn’t been priced higher than -181 over the hot streak.
Cliff Lee (8-3, 2.34 ERA), Seattle Mariners
You can almost hear the faint sound of cha-ching with each pitch Lee throws. That’s because the price tag for the soon to be free agent is growing with every one of his masterful outings – and there’s been a lot of them lately.
The southpaw hurler was in line for his fourth straight complete game this season but was pulled for being too awesome.
“He gave us eight tough innings on a hot day, and that was enough,” M’s manager Don Wakamatsu told reporters after Lee did his part in an 8-1 win over Detroit. “If the score was different, or it was a little cooler, he would have completed that game.”
Lee allowed one run and struck out 11 batters compared to one batter but was attacked for his overload awesomeness.
"I was definitely not getting the same strike zone as [Lee] did, but I obviously didn't throw the ball well, so I'm not going to make excuses," Tigers starting pitcher Jeremy Bonderman, who was ejected for arguing ball and strikes, told reporters. "It gets in your head, but I'm not going to sit in here and say it was his fault I got beat, because it wasn't."
Not only is Lee using the force against opposing batters, he’s also using Jedi mind tricks to eff up rival hurlers. Now that’s the type of pitcher you wanna back.
By the way, Seattle is 8-1 in Lee’s last nine trips to the hill.
Slumping
Phil Hughes (10-2, 3.83 ERA), New York Yankees
The man starting opposite Lee hasn’t been enjoying the same type of success lately. Hughes got off to a remarkably hot start and was even the Yanks most consistent performer in the rotation for the first month and change of the season.
But batters are now catching up with the Georgia native and making him pay for his mistakes. Hughes has surrendered six homers in his last three starts and carries a bloated 7.03 ERA over his last four outings.
The Bronx Bombers are still 8-2 over his last 10 starts, so fading him might not be the best strategy, especially with the way Alex Rodriguez is hitting these days.
Wagering on the total seems like a better play. The over is 8-1 in Hughes’ last nine trips to the bump.
MLB RoundUp For 7/9
By Dan Bebe
National League
Reds @ Phillies (-110) with a total of 9.5
Ramon Hernandez was 3-for-8 off Blanton with 2 RBI before 2010.
REMATCH ALERT! Blanton actually beat Leake over in Cincinnati just about 10 days ago, though he did not receive a decision in that eventual 9-6 win. Blanton pitched well, though, giving up just 3 runs over 7.2 innings. Leake had a little more trouble, surrendering 6 runs in 6 innings before coming back with a "quality" start his last time out, against the Cubs. Truth be told, I'm not hugely confident in either pitcher, though Leake has seemed to isolate the teams he's going to stink against, which currently include the Dodgers, Giants, and maybe the Phils? Blanton is 2-0 with a 3.92 ERA against the Reds in his career, but damn if Cincinnati isn't doing a nice job heading into the break. Leans: None
Giants @ Nationals (-145) with a total of 6.5
Someone woke the sleeping Giants...get it? Har de har har. San Francisco had been getting blasted before heading into Milwaukee, and I guess some quality American lagers got them back on track? In any case, this is a freakishly low home price on Strasburg, and there's probably a reason for that. Still, the Giants aren't a good hitting team, and the Milwaukee pitching staff is showing that a bad enough pitcher can make even a team like SF look competent at the plate. If Strasburg is even marginally economical with his pitches, and his defense stops kicking the ball around, this one could actually stay under the total. It's nuts, I know. Leans: Giants, Under
Braves @ Mets (-110) with a total of 7.5
I must admit, I'm torn on this one. Is this line decidedly pro-Dickey because he's going to pitch his butt off, or because the Mets are just getting a ton of betting love, and Hanson is actually undervalued right now, courtesy of a few bad starts in mid/late June. At first glance, I actually like the Braves, as the Mets haven't been hitting all that well on the current homestand, and Hanson has yet to allow an earned run to New York in the couple of times he's faced them (still losing a 1-0 heartbreaker thanks to an unearned run). Dickey is coming off another solid outing that his team lost, but this opening number caught me off guard just a bit. Leans: Braves
Cardinals (-200) @ Astros with a total of 7.5
Magical Bud Norris is back, baby! 4-0 with a 0.35 career ERA against the Cardinals is just insanity, considering his record this season against the entire League is 2-5 with a 5.98 ERA. Adam Wainwright has been his typically brilliant self, 12-5 with a 2.24 ERA and lifetime 8-1, 1.72 against the 'Stros. I don't know if I trust Norris enough to think he'll go 9 strong innings, but Wainwright absolutely could, which makes taking the shot on the big dog a little scary. Still, given Norris's work against the Cards, how can you not? Leans: Astros, Under
Pirates @ Brewers (-145) with a total of 9.5
Andy LaRoche is 3-for-5 with a HR and 2 RBI off Davis;
Ryan Braun was batting .381 with a HR and 8 RBI off Maholm before this year;
Corey Hart was batting .324 with a HR and 3 RBI off Maholm before 2010.
I wouldn't put a ton of stock in the career numbers for Maholm, if only because he's been, literally, as consistent as humanly possible against Milwaukee the two times he's faced them this season. 7 innings, 4 runs, both starts. Doug Davis is 8-6 with a 4.82 lifetime ERA against the Pirates, but the mere fact that he's a -145 favorite is utter silliness. He was one of the worst starters in baseball this year before missing a bunch of time, and I don't know that he can regain his below average form that teams seem to be willing to pay for. Leans: Pirates
Padres @ Rockies (-163) with a total of 9.5
Scott Hairston is 4-for-7 with 2 HR and 6 RBI off De La Rosa before 2010;
Brad Hawpe is 3-for-7 with 2 RBI off Correia;
Chris Iannetta was 3-for-6 with a HR and 2 RBI off Correia before 2010.
Correia has made 2 starts against the Rockies, and he has yet to be truly good. He's allowed 9 runs in roughly 11 innings of work, with one of the starts barely qualifying as a quality start. De La Rosa has been shelved since late April, so under normal circumstances, he'd probably dominate this game, but there's bound to be some rust, and I wonder if the Over isn't the best move, especially with the Padres' bullpen seemingly looking ahead to the Break. Leans: Over
Marlins @ D'backs (-130) with a total of 9
Stephen Drew is 8-for-16 with 3 HR and 4 RBI off Nolasco;
Adam LaRoche is a career .313 hitter off Nolasco, with 3 RBI.
I was really hoping one more D'back position player would have any kind of numbers against Nolasco, but just those two makes this game another head-scratcher. Nolasco is 4-1 with a 3.53 lifetime mark against Arizona, and Haren is 1-2 with a 2.86 ERA against Florida, so there's a slight historical edge to Haren, and a slight "stuff" edge to Haren. Both bullpens are a little on the poor side, so almost anything could happen after the starters are out, and let's be honest, the D'backs look like they're about ready to start the offseason. Leans: None
Cubs @ Dodgers (-140) with a total of 7.5
Ryan Theriot is 4-for-8 off Billingsley before this year;
Jamey Carroll was 4-for-13 with a HR and 3 RBI off Lilly;
Matt Kemp is 3-for-7 with 2 HR and 2 RBI off Lilly.
Ted Lilly always pitches well against the Dodgers, the team that drafted him. He went 7 shutout innings in a 1-0 win over LA when these teams faced off in Chicago, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him pitch well, again. Billingsley is 2-3 with a 3.51 lifetime ERA against the Cubs, but struggled a bit through 5 innings earlier this season. The Dodgers won that game, but Chad was uninspiring. He's been good since coming off the DL, though. Leans: Cubs
American League
Twins @ Tigers (-125) with a total of 7.5
Jason Kubel was batting .360 off Verlander with 7 RBI before 2010;
Joe Mauer was batting .378 with 3 HR and 9 RBI off Verlander before 2010;
Denard Span was 9-for-20 off Verlander before 2010;
Magglio Ordonez was batting .381 with 2 HR and 8 RBI off Liriano before 2010.
REMATCH ALERT! This game is going to be a fun one, but from a handicapping perspective, it's a little goofy. Liriano has faced the Tigers twice this year, was brilliant in his start here in Detroit, and was awful at home. He's 4-2 with a 4.41 lifetime mark against the Tigers. Verlander is 5-7 lifetime against the Twins, though he did pitch relatively well in a narrow loss to Liriano back in April. Leans: Over
Red Sox (-140) @ Blue Jays with a total of 7.5
Jose Molina is 5-for-11 off Lester before 2010;
J.D. Drew was 5-for-10 off Romero before 2010;
David Ortiz was 6-for-12 with a HR and 5 RBI off Romero before 2010;
Kevin Youkilis was 4-for-9 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Romero before 2010.
Jon Lester is a beast. Flat out. He's 10-3 with a 2.76 ERA this year, 5-3 with a 2.71 lifetime ERA against the Blue Jays, and that includes 7 innings of 1-hit baseball back in April against the Jays (with 11 K's). Romero is 1-3 with a 7.66 ERA against the Red Sox, and while Boston is a little banged up right now, Romero is coming off a bad start, and I wonder if the youngster isn't getting a little tired.
Leans: Boston
Indians @ Rays (-205) with a total of 8.5
Jhonny Peralta is 6-for-13 with 3 HR and 8 RBI off Shields.
Some of the lifetime numbers don't really make sense to me. Carmona is 2-1 with a 6.29 ERA against the Rays, but not one member of the current Rays squad has strong numbers against him. Carmona pitched well against the Rays once this year, already, giving up just 2 runs in 6.2 innings. Shields is 0-3 against the Indians, despite a 3.73 ERA, but he continues to struggle, and at this price, the Indians aren't a bad deal. Leans: Indians
Orioles @ Rangers (-230) with a total of 10
I still believe Scott Feldman is a tremendous fade, but not sure today is the right time. Matusz is coming off a win, though, and that was his first since mid-April. Does that mean he's going to get a taste of victory and come back strong? Lord knows he couldn't pitch much worse against the Rangers, as his 10.61 ERA isn't so good. Feldman gave up 4 runs in 6 innings against the O's, but really escaped that one, as Baltimore had 12 hits in those 6 innings, but just couldn't get the big hit. Feldman, I believe, should never be this high of a price, even against the O's. Leans: Orioles
Royals @ White Sox (-165) with a total of 9
Not going to type up all the historical data with Buerhle and the Royals. Just know that he's faced them twice this year, and hasn't really pitched well in either of them. He allowed 6 runs (5 earned) in 6 innings of a loss to Gil Meche back in May, then somehow gave up only 3 runs in 6.1 innings of a loss 2 weeks ago, despite giving up 10 hits and 5 walks. Bruce Chen has been surprisingly solid as a starter for the Royals, but the White Sox just can't be stopped right now. I'm not going to step in front of this freight train, any more. Leans: None
Angels (-120) @ Athletics with a total of 8
Coco Crisp is 4-for-10 off Pineiro;
Mark Ellis is 9-for-19 with 3 RBI off Pineiro since '05.
I don't want to spend a ton of time on the player matchup numbers, mostly because the Angels can't hit a lick these days. They were made to look foolish in Chicago during a 4-game sweep out of town. The A's have looked pretty pedestrian, too, getting walloped by the Yankees. Mazzaro has, to his credit, pitched well this year, including 5 strong innings against the Angels a month ago. I'd love to back Pineiro, who has been on a sick roll, but if his offense can't get a run home, then surely our attention gets turned to... Leans: Under
Yankees @ Mariners (-110) with a total of 7
REMATCH ALERT! Cliff Lee won the last squareoff just 10 days ago, 7-4, in yet another complete game. He's putting up those absurd numbers that the Mariners expected, but Seattle is generally at a loss for scoring runs. So, Phil Hughes, struggling as we approach the All Star Break, goes against Lee, again. The Yankees are playing excellent baseball right now off a little bit of a short slump, but I just don't know if Hughes is in good form. Considering Lee was +150 dog when he faced Hughes in New York, this is a pretty big swing of 60 cents in the venue change. Strong line for the Mariners, I believe, and Lee should be able to give the M's 7-8 more strong innings. Leans: Mariners
Tips and Trends
San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals
Giants: San Francisco has won their past 4 games, as they attempt to keep pace in the hotly contested National League West standings. San Francisco is 45-40 SU this season, including 20-23 SU on the road. The Giants offense has finally woke up, as they have been plating runs after runs of late. The Giants are -0.95 and -4.06 units both SU and on the RL respectively this season. San Francisco has dominated the Nationals over the past few years, so confidence certainly won't be an issue as this weekend series gets under way. The Giants are 20-6 in their last 26 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. San Francisco is 7-3 in their last 10 during game 1 of a series. The Giants are 2-7 in their last 9 road games against a team with a winning home record. San Francisco is 2-7 in their last 9 games against a right-handed starter.
Giants are 9-4 last 13 games against the National League East.
Over is 10-4 last 14 games against a team with a losing record.
Key Injuries - 3B Juan Uribe (finger) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 4
Nationals (-145, O/U 6.5): Washington is certainly enjoying the hype surrounding P Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg has been a strikeout machine since being called up to the team, and is pitching better than his record would indicate. Strasburg is only 2-2, despite an ERA of 2.45 and a WHIP of 1.06. Washington has enjoyed the spike in national interest as well as ticket sales when Strasburg takes the mound. Washington had been struggling until they welcomed the Padres to town. The Nationals won that series, a huge step up in compettion sure to give this team such much needed confidence. Washington is +0.28 and -6.13 units both SU and on the RL respectively this year. The Nationals are 16-35 in their last 51 Friday games. The Nationals are 3-13 SU in their last 16 games against San Francisco.
Nationals are 7-3 last 10 home games against a team with a losing road record.
Over is 4-0 last 4 home games against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - C Jesus Flores (shoulder) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (OVER - Total of the Day)
Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers
Cubs: Don't look now, but Chicago is on a winning streak! The Cubs have won 4 of their past 5 games, with 3 of those wins coming as the listed underdog. Chicago is only 38-47 SU on the year, yet the team certainly isn't short on confidence. Despite being 10.5 games behind in the National League Central, the Cubs still feel they can make the playoffs. Against the National League West, Chicago has gone 10-2 SU this year. P Ted Lilly will start against the team that originally drafted him tonight. Lilly is 3-7 this year, with an ERA of 3.76 and a WHIP of 1.10. The Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog. The Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 games against a right-handed starter. Chicago is 5-12 in their last 17 road games against a right-handed starter. The Cubs are 0-8 in their last 8 Friday games. Chicago is 2-5 in Lilly's last 7 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Cubs are 1-6 in Lilly's last 7 road starts with the total set between 7 and 8.5 runs. The Cubs are 0-5 in Lilly's last 5 road starts against a team with a winning record.
Cubs are 10-1 last 11 games against the National League West.
Over is 4-0 last 4 road games.
Key Injuries - LF Alfonso Soriano (elbow) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 4 (Side of the Day)
Dodgers (-140, O/U 7.5): Los Angeles has learned to deal with Manny Ramirez being out of their lineup, as they've actually performed well in his absence. The Dodgers are a solid 46-38 SU this year, including 25-17 SU at home. Despite their success, the Dodgers are still looking up at San Diego in the National League West standings. Los Angeles is +0.78 and -1.10 units both SU and on the RL respectively this season. P Chad Billingsley will take the mound tonight, as he is 6-4 with an ERA of 4.06 and a WHIP of 1.38 this year. The Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 games against the National League Central. The Dodgers are 5-2 in their last 7 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Los Angeles is 0-4 in their last 4 home games against a left-handed starter. The Dodgers are 4-0 in Billingsley's last 4 starts against a team with a losing record. Los Angeles is 19-7 in Billingsley's last 26 home starts against a team with a losing record. The Dodgers are 5-2 in Billingsley's last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Los Angeles is 1-5 in Billingsley's last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.
Dodgers are 21-9 last 30 games as a favorite.
Over is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.
Key Injuries - LF Manny Ramirez (hamstring) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 3
Diamond Trends - Friday
By Vince Akins
Cardinals at Astros – The Cardinals are 13-0 since July 17, 2009 as a 140+ favorite after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1300. The Cardinals are 9-0 since July 23, 2009 after a loss in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base for a net profit of $915. The Cardinals are 0-6 since April 24, 2010 when Adam Wainwright starts on the road after a quality start and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $735 when playing against.
Angels at Athletics – The Angels are 8-0 since May 27, 2009 as a favorite after a loss in which they left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $800. The Angels are 6-0 since May 16, 2010 when Joel Pineiro starts as a favorite for a net profit of $600.
Red Sox at Blue Jays – The Blue Jays are 5-0 since September 28, 2009 as a dog after a win in which they drew 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $715. The Blue Jays are 5-0 since June 05, 2009 when Ricky Romero starts at home after facing 25 or fewer hitters for a net profit of $540.
Pirates at Brewers – The Brewers are 0-8 since May 12, 2010 when they are off two losses in which they never led for a net profit of $865 when playing against.
Marlins at Diamondbacks – The Marlins are 7-0 since April 28, 2009 when Ricky Nolasco starts within 20 cents of pickem after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $735. The Diamondbacks are 7-0 since April 22, 2009 when Dan Haren starts as a favorite after his team scored a total of fewer than three runs in his last start for a net profit of $700.
Cubs at Dodgers – The Cubs are 8-0 since September 20, 2009 as a road dog when they are off a loss in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs for a net profit of $1015. The Cubs are 6-0 since April 08, 2010 as a dog when they are off a loss in which they held the lead for a net profit of $765.
Yankees at Mariners – The Yankees are 6-0 since May 20, 2009 when Philip Hughes starts after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $600.
Braves at Mets – The Braves are 7-0 since April 20, 2010 when Tommy Hanson starts after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $705. The Braves are 6-0 since August 20, 2009 as a dog when they came back from a deficit to win in their starter's last start for a net profit of $740. The Mets are 7-0 since April 23, 2010 at home vs a divisional foe that is ahead of them in the divisional standings for a net profit of $790.
Giants at Nationals – The Giants are 0-6 since September 22, 2009 when Matt Cain starts on the road after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $680 when playing against. The Nationals are 7-0 since September 28, 2009 at home after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent as a dog for a net profit of $815.
Reds at Phillies – The Reds are 0-9 since May 17, 2009 on the road after a one run loss and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $932 when playing against.
Indians at Rays – The Indians are 0-9 since September 15, 2009 as a 170+ dog when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Indians are 0-6 since June 04, 2009 when Fausto Carmona starts as a road dog after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $600 when playing against.
Padres at Rockies – The Padres are 6-0 since June 10, 2009 when Kevin Correia starts as a dog when he is off a start in which he needed fewer than 3.5 pitches per batter for a net profit of $800. The Rockies are 6-0 since July 03, 2009 when Jorge De La Rosa starts as a favorite in the first game of a series for a net profit of $600.
Twins at Tigers – The Twins are 8-0 since June 23, 2009 after a loss in which they left fewer than 10 men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $830. The Twins are 0-5 since July 09, 2009 when Francisco Liriano starts vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $530 when playing against. The Tigers are 7-0 since September 14, 2009 when Justin Verlander starts at home after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $720.
Royals at White Sox – The White Sox are 9-0 since June 11, 2010 after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $900. The White Sox are 6-0 since June 27, 2009 when Mark Buehrle starts at home after a quality start and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $620.