MLB RoundUp For 8/13
By Dan Bebe
National League
D'backs @ Nationals (-110) with a total of 9
I'm not really sure how he's done it, but John Lannan is 2-1 with an 0.47 ERA against the D'backs, and Mark Reynolds, Chris Young, Adam LaRoche, Augie Ojeda, and Justin Upton are a combined 2-for-31 off Lannan. Ryan Church and Kelly Johnson have hit him hard, but 2 guys on base and everyone striking out does not an offense make. Joe Saunders got whipped by the Padres in his last start after 2 good ones with his new team. He certainly looks more comfortable against the weaker offenses of the NL, but he's also shown a track record of being quite streaky, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Saunders get popped again.
Marlins (-135) @ Reds with a total of 7.5
This is an awfully cheap number on Johnson, but I guess it's not that insane, since he is still pitching for the Marlins. Volquez appears to be getting stronger with every start, and that's not surprising, either, since it does take time to get comfortable off such a huge surgery. Both pitchers have tremendous career numbers against the other team, as Johnson is 2-0 with a 1.65 ERA against the Reds (including 6 innings of 1-run ball this year), and Volquez is 3-0 with an 1.80 ERA against the Marlins. It seems like, looking at the player numbers, Johnson might be due to give up 2-3 runs instead of just 1. Still, if Volquez continues to pitch well, and the starters can go 7 innings, this one could still sneak under.
Phillies (-129) @ Mets with a total of 7
This game has me stroking my metaphorical beard. Cole Hamels pitched 7 dynamic innings against the Mets, but lost 1-0 to Johan Santana, and dropped to 2-6 in his career against New York despite a 3.71 ERA. That just doesn't make sense for a guy playing for a pretty good team. Dickey was amazing against the Phillies a few months back, but got rocked by them a week ago. You have to think that he's looking to bounce back, and we know how much better the Mets pitch at home. It seems like both guys are sort of "due" to get a little break, either with Dickey pitching better, or Hamels getting 2 runs of support instead of zero. I'm tempted to pass, but a second look is certainly in order.
Dodgers @ Braves (-154) with a total of 7
This is another one that comes down to which team gets the big hit, and I suppose that in such a situation, you have to at least give the underdog a cursory glance. Neither of these pitchers looked all that great against the other team when they pitched in LA in early June, but based on the Braves strong home numbers, and actually winning a few games on the road this week, they would seem to be a tough opponent for the Dodgers, who only hit in one game a week, it seems. I admit, I'm looking for a way to back Kuroda, but this line is inflated for a reason, and that is because LA is just unreliable.
Pirates @ Astros (-169) with a total of 7.5
I know the inclination is to try to find a way to back the underdog when the line is this high on a bad team, but there's just no way you can convince me to get behind the Pirates. Ohlendorf is 0-6 with a 7.32 ERA against Houston, and while the current crop of Astros hasn't seen a ton of him (they're quite young), they did lay into Ohlendorf in one of 2 starts this year. Ohlendorf pitched pretty well the last time he was in Houston, but took the 2-0 loss, and simply cannot beat this team. It's tough to get bopped 3 times in the same year, supposedly, but I'm not sure I can subscribe to that school of thought when you pitch for the Pirates.
Cubs @ Cardinals (-230) with a total of 9
This one is well out of our price range. Leave it alone.
Brewers (-119) @ Rockies with a total of 9
Considering Yovani Gallardo is 0-3 with a 6.04 ERA against the Rockies, he really hasn't been that awful against them, this year. He went 7 innings of 3-run ball in a 5-3 loss to the Rockies back in April at home, and then tossed 6 innings of 1-run ball in Coors in an 8-7 loss in mid-June. It's hard to see how his numbers against the Rockies are so terrible, really. De La Rosa is 1-2 with a 9.19 ERA against Milwaukee, and while I like how he pitches at home, for the most part, Ryan Braun's absurd success against De La Rosa makes me nervous. The Rockies are coming home off another difficult road trip, too, so you have to wonder if game 1 in the altitude plays any role on the bats. Yet another interesting line, and yet another tough game to cap.
Padres @ Giants (-129) with a total of 7.5
This has not been a season series that's been kind to the Giants. The Padres just wiped the floor with San Francisco during the many meetings in the season's first half. Sanchez was on the mound for the rare Giants win, but it's tough to really get behind the Giants, even with their recent success. Sanchez is 2-4 with a 2.70 ERA against the Padres, and Richard is 2-1 with a 3.70 ERA against the Giants, and between the two, they've been very, very good in 5 of 6 starts this year against the other team. If you take numbers from this year, it's tough to go against the Padres, though, at the same time, San Diego has not looked quite as strong lately as they did early in the year. The Giants are a good home team, and Sanchez can usually shut down San Diego.
American League
Mariners @ Indians (-145) with a total of 8.5
This is another match-up of two teams that underachieved wildly in the season's first half, but are each playing better lately. The Mariners, obviously, had a short spurt of energy under a new Manager, but that won't last. The Indians, more interestingly, have gone through stretches of very impressive hitting, and with their best starter on the hill, they certainly have a shot to get a couple wins in this series. To Pauley's credit, he hasn't been that bad, but when you've made 4 of 5 starts in the deadzone known as Safeco, you should have an ERA in the 3's. He'll get touched up for a few, and the handicapping of this game comes down to what success you believe Carmona will have.
Orioles @ Rays (-210) with a total of 8.5
This is clearly Orioles or nothing, at this price. They probably won't win more than 1 game this series, but at this price, you'd actually make a couple pennies betting Orioles flat in every game.
Red Sox @ Rangers (-135) with a total of 9.5
The first thing I notice about this game is the extremely high total. I mean, nine-point-five? I know both teams are solid offensive ballclubs, but wouldn't you think with names like Beckett and Hunter on the hill you'd see no higher than 9? Beckett got rocked by the Red Sox back before his DL stint, but aside from getting drilled by the Yankees, he's been better lately. Hunter has a poor lifetime mark against the Red Sox, but he tossed a quality start against them this year. That total is very, very fishy. As far as the side goes, this is probably pretty accurate, given the above info and the Rangers desire to bounce back from that tough loss to the Yanks.
Tigers @ White Sox (-160) with a total of 9
At this point, I'm not sure the Tigers can be undervalued on the road. Seriously, it's sickening, with this team. Lately, thanks to a slew of injuries and some generally bad vibes, the Tigers haven't even been able to win at home. The road continues to be a hideous beast, as the Tigers' last road trip included getting swept in 4 in Tampa, and blowing leads in Boston. I honestly don't quite know how Buerhle's numbers against Detroit are as strong as they are, since he's given up plenty of hits to the Tigers, but Detroit just can't get those bodies home. To Bonderman's credit, he just beat the Sox in the nightcap of a doubleheader, so we know he's got a few bullets left, but damn if this club just cannot get anything done away from home.
Yankees (-175) @ Royals with a total of 10
Dustin Moseley, believe it or not, has been one of the more consistent Yankees starters. I know that a line this low is screaming "trap," but I really just think it's a low line. I wouldn't bet this game, at least not the side.
Athletics @ Twins (-154) with a total of 8
Gonzalez remains a pretty strong home/road split, and his career work against the Twins is especially ugly despite a strong home start against them this year. In his career, Gonzalez is 1-1 with a 14.21 ERA. Pavano, the horse, has been fine against the A's in very limited work. It would not be at all surprising to see Pavano go pretty deep in this one, though it is something of a letdown game for the Twins, coming home off a tough series in Chicago. The line is fairly accurate, given how Gonzalez has sputtered outside of Oakland, but at the same time, there are some reasons to be careful before backing the Twinkies.
Blue Jays @ Angels (-138) with a total of 9
Scott Kazmir made his return from a DL stint with 5 decent innings his last time out, but too many times we've seen a guy come back with some adrenaline, only to tail off after his first start. Kazmir, to me, doesn't strike me as a 1-start wonder. When he's good, he's going to give you 5 or 6 innings of inefficient baseball, striking out and walking a ton. Marc Rzepcynski, his opposition, made 2 starts in July, stunk, and hasn't pitched in the Bigs, since. We've also seen, this year, guys that come up for a cup of coffee, then get sent back down, only to return with a new sense of purpose.
Friday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streakers
Jeremy Guthrie, Baltimore Orioles (6-11, 4.04 ERA)
Is it possible to be an ace pitcher with a 6-11 record? Jeremy Guthrie sure is making a case.
The right-hander has picked up a win in three of his past four starts and the last five times he has toed the rubber he is averaging seven innings and allowing only 1.20 earned runs. In his most recent outing, a 4-3 win over the White Sox, he allowed only one run over eight innings.
"Guthrie has as good an arm as there is in our league for a right-hander," Angels manager Mike Scioscia told the Associated. "He has good stuff, really good stuff.”
Jorge De La Rosa, Colorado Rockies (4-3, 5.01 ERA)
The Rockies might be slumping, but De La Rosa isn’t the reason for the team faltering.
The left-hander has lasted at least six innings in three of his past four starts and not allowed more than three earned runs over that span. In his most recent outing against Pittsburgh, he allowed three earned runs over 5.1 innings as he continued a string of solid starts.
One of the biggest reasons to believe in De La Rosa is that he is pitching to his strength: over his past four starts he has induced 47 ground ball outs compared to 23 through fly balls. When he keeps the ball on the ground, he can beat anyone.
Slumping
Marc Rzepczynski, Toronto Blue Jays (0-1, 7.15 ERA)
Somebody should just stay in the minors.
Rzepczynski was sent down to Triple-A Las Vegas after a horrid July that saw him tagged for nine earned runs and 17 hits over just 10.1 innings in a pair of starts. Now? He’s back for more punishment when he fills a hole in Toronto’s rotation in Los Angeles against the Angels.
In 72.2 career innings, he has allowed 34 earned runs on 69 hits with 32 walks.
R.A. Dickey, New York Mets (7-5, 2.65 ERA)
The 35-year-old knuckleballer has been the most consistent pitcher in the team’s rotation for the majority of the season – but then came a trip to Philadelphia last week.
Dickey couldn’t do anything right, getting tagged for a season-high six runs on eight hits over a season-low three innings in a loss to the Phillies. Even worse, he gave up a pair of homers and walked one against no strikeouts in his most recent stinker.
Friday MLB Tips
By Kevin Rogers
Despite the NFL creeping into the forefront of the gamblers' minds, there are still plenty of things to figure out around Major League Baseball. The Red Sox look to continue their hot play in Arlington against the Rangers, while the Dodgers travel to Atlanta to battle the Braves. We'll start in Cincinnati with the Reds trying to get back on track against one of the top pitchers in the National League.
Marlins at Reds - 7:10 PM EST
Cincinnati has been one the biggest surprises in baseball this season, but following a sweep by St. Louis at home this week, the Reds are outsiders in the playoff race. Florida, meanwhile, has played well away from home recently, winning six of its last seven on the highway.
Josh Johnson (10-4, 1.97 ERA) hasn't won since July 17 as the Marlins are 2-2 in his last four starts. The Florida ace is coming off a no-decision in an extra-innings victory over the Cardinals, tossing eight innings of five-hit ball. Johnson has been tested in each of his previous four road starts, facing the Padres, Giants, Dodgers, and Braves. Florida is just 1-3 in those contests, but his two worst performances on the road since mid-April came at San Francisco (3 ER) and San Diego (5 ER). Johnson has shut down the Reds in two career starts, striking out 16 and allowing three runs in a pair of Marlins' victories.
The Reds send out Edinson Volquez (2-1, 4.94 ERA), who is making his sixth start of the season after recovering from Tommy John surgery. Volquez rebounded from two bad starts against the Brewers and Nationals by giving up two earned runs the last two times out in wins over the Braves and Cubs. The righty has solid career numbers against Florida, allowing four earned runs in three victories.
Cincinnati is 2-6 the last eight games at the Great American Ballpark, while splitting a four-game set with Florida back in April. This series has been extremely even recently, with each squad going 7-7 since June 2008. The Marlins have finished 'over' the total in eight of their previous nine games.
Dodgers at Braves - 7:35 PM EST
Atlanta will begin life without franchise stalwart Chipper Jones on Friday as the third baseman is out for the season with a torn ACL. Despite that void, the Braves will try to win their seventh game in nine tries, hosting the Dodgers. Los Angeles is running out of time, sitting nine games out in the NL West race after blowing an 8-2 lead in Thursday's 10-9 loss at Philadelphia.
Tim Hudson (13-5, 2.24 ERA) has been rock-solid recently for the Braves, giving up two earned runs in his last four starts (4-0). The veteran is coming off a three-hit gem against the Giants, tossing eight innings, while throwing over 110 pitches for the first time in eight starts. Hudson picked up a no-decision in his last visit to Chavez Ravine, holding the Dodgers to four runs in seven innings, but Los Angeles rallied for a 5-4 victory.
The Dodgers won seven of Hiroki Kuroda's (8-10, 3.64 ERA) first eight starts of the season, but have taken a step back over the last two months with a 5-9 team record in his last 14 trips to the mound. Playing the underdog role hasn't benefited Kuroda, as Los Angeles is 1-5 in his six starts at plus-money this season. Kuroda has put together a pair of quality starts in his previous two road outings, losses to the Cardinals and Padres.
Atlanta and Los Angeles split a four-game set at Dodger Stadium in June, with three of the contests finishing 'over' the total. The Braves have lost only one home series all season, dropping two of three to the Phillies at Turner Field from April 20-22.
Red Sox at Rangers - 8:05 PM EST
It's interesting to note that Boston has won one more game than Texas, but the Red Sox are not in the playoffs if it started today, as opposed to the AL West-leading Rangers. The Sox missed out on a sweep in Toronto, blowing a late 5-1 lead in a 6-5 setback on Thursday afternoon. The Rangers also look to bounce back after squandering a five-run lead in Wednesday's 7-6 loss to the Yankees.
Josh Beckett (3-2, 6.21 ERA) was racked in his last outing, allowing seven earned runs and 11 hits in 4.2 innings of a 7-2 setback at New York. Boston won Beckett's first three starts since getting activated off the disabled list in late July prior to the loss at New York, which wasn't even his worst outing of the season. Beckett returns to his home state of Texas looking to silence a Rangers' lineup that scored seven runs off the righty in an 8-7 Red Sox win on April 21.
The Rangers send out Tommy Hunter (9-1, 3.01 ERA), who has basically been an automatic win for the AL West division leaders. Hunter is a perfect 6-0 at Ameriquest Field, delivering a quality start in all seven trips to the home mound. The Texas offense has provided Hunter with plenty of run support, plating 6.75 runs/game in his 12 starts. Hunter shut down the Sox at Fenway Park right after the All-Star Break, holding Boston to five hits and two earned runs in 6.2 innings of a 7-2 victory.
Texas owns a 4-3 record against Boston this season, with the Sox making their first trip to Arlington since last August. The Rangers beat the Sox five of six times last season in the Lone Star State, as five games finished 'under' the total.
vegasinsider.com
Diamond Trends - Friday
By Vince Akins
Blue Jays at Angels – The Blue Jays are 0-7 since May 22, 2010 as a road dog when they blew a lead in their starter's last start and lost for a net profit of $700 when playing against.
Pirates at Astros – The Pirates are 0-11 since April 30, 2010 on the road when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $1100 when playing against. The Pirates are 0-9 since August 05, 2009 when Ross Ohlendorf starts after facing 25 or fewer hitters for a net profit of $920 when playing against.
Dodgers at Braves – The Dodgers are 0-6 since October 18, 2009 when Hiroki Kuroda starts as a road dog for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Braves are 6-0 since May 28, 2010 as a home 140+ favorite after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $600.
Cubs at Cardinals – The Cubs are 0-7 since July 28, 2010 after allowing 6+ runs loss for a net profit of $735 when playing against. The Cardinals are 5-0 since July 15, 2010 when they are off a win in which they scored in at most two separate innings for a net profit of $555.
Padres at Giants – The Padres are 5-0 since August 21, 2009 when Clayton Richard starts after facing 25 or fewer hitters and they lost in his previous start for a net profit of $630. The Giants are 7-0 since May 04, 2010 vs a team that has won at least their last two games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $745.
Mariners at Indians – The Mariners are 0-5 since May 07, 2010 after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $540 when playing against. The Indians are 4-0 since June 29, 2010 when Fausto Carmona starts vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $595.
Phillies at Mets – The Phillies are 0-5 since August 02, 2009 when Cole Hamels starts as a road favorite after he had a WHIP of less than one his last start for a net profit of $745 when playing against. The Mets are 0-10 since May 28, 2010 after shutting out their opponent for a net profit of $1080 when playing against. The Mets are 0-7 since May 01, 2010 as a dog after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $700 when playing against.
Diamondbacks at Nationals – The Nationals are 0-6 since April 17, 2009 when John Lannan starts within 20 cents of pickem in the first game of a series for a net profit of $610 when playing against. The Nationals are 5-0 since April 23, 2010 at home within 20 cents of pickem after a loss and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $530.
Red Sox at Rangers – The Red Sox are 8-0 since April 26, 2010 when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $815. The Red Sox are 6-0 since April 26, 2010 after a one run loss and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $600.
Orioles at Rays – The Orioles are 0-11 since April 17, 2010 on the road after a loss in which they drew 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $1100 when playing against. The Orioles are 0-7 since September 13, 2009 when Jeremy Guthrie starts on the road after a quality start for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Rays are 8-0 since May 02, 2010 as a 140+ favorite after a loss in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $800.
Marlins at Reds – The Reds are 6-0 since April 13, 2009 when Edinson Volquez starts as a dog for a net profit of $730. The Reds are 5-0 since April 20, 2010 at home when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $520.
Brewers at Rockies – The Brewers are 7-0 since September 20, 2009 when Yovani Gallardo starts as a favorite after his team scored a total of seven or more runs in his last start for a net profit of $700.
Yankees at Royals – The Royals are 0-6 since June 02, 2010 when Kyle Davies starts after facing 25 or fewer hitters for a net profit of $625 when playing against.
Athletics at Twins – The Athletics are 0-9 since July 30, 2009 when Gio Gonzalez starts on the road after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Twins are 7-0 since May 29, 2010 when Carl Pavano starts when he is off a start in which he needed fewer than 3.5 pitches per batter for a net profit of $790. The Twins are 6-0 since May 30, 2010 as a 140+ favorite after a 5+ run win for a net profit of $600.
Tigers at White Sox – The Tigers are 0-6 since April 19, 2010 as a dog when they are off a win in which they scored in at most two separate innings for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The White Sox are 7-0 since June 06, 2010 at home when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $705.
Reds and Marlins start three-game set in Cincy
By: StatFox
Florida (57-56) at Cincinnati (64-51) 7:10 p.m. EDT Sports.com Line: Florida –135, Cincinnati +115 Total: 7.5
The Marlins and Reds start a three-game series tonight at Cincinnati. The Marlins have lost 10 of their last 12 games there.
Josh Johnson (10-4, 1.97 ERA) takes on Edinson Volquez (2-1, 4.94 ERA). Volquez is 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his three career starts vs. Florida. After dominating the NL through his first 20 starts this season (10-3, 1.61 ERA), Johnson has shown signs of being human in his last three starts, going 0-1 with a 4.35 ERA.
The Marlins are riding a four-game win streak after losing their previous five games. The Reds have lost 10 of 16 games against opponents with a winning record in the second half of the season so far.
VOLQUEZ is 16-5 (+10.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was VOLQUEZ 5.3, OPPONENT 3.1 - (Rating = 0*)