MLB News and Notes Friday 8/20

Friday MLB Tips
By Kevin Rogers

As August winds down, and preseason football is coming to the forefront of gamblers, the pennant races in each league continue to heat up around baseball. Three teams are separated by 2 ½ games in the NL Wild Card race, with the two teams trailing hooking up in St. Louis. Elsewhere, the Twins look to stay hot against the ice-cold Angels at Target Field. We'll start in Boston with two AL East teams that will likely miss the postseason, but have been viable clubs all season.

Blue Jays at Red Sox - 7:10 PM EST

Toronto travels back east after dropping two of three at Oakland, including a 5-4 setback in the rubber game on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Boston continues to grab victories, but it's tough to pick up ground when Tampa Bay and New York keep winning atop the division. The Sox send out their ace in the series opener, while trying to avenge a meltdown in Toronto one week ago.

Boston was looking for a sweep at Rogers Center as the Sox built a 5-2 advantage on August 12, but Jonathan Papelbon squandered the lead and the Jays rallied for a 6-5 triumph. Jon Lester (13-7, 2.80 ERA) take the hill for the Sox, going for his third straight win. Following four consecutive losses after the All-Star Break, Lester picked up a pair of victories at New York and Texas in scoreless efforts. The southpaw has burned backers in his last three home starts, losing as favorites of $2.45, $2.50, and $1.55.

Brett Cecil (9-6, 3.96 ERA) is coming off his worst outing of the season, allowing seven earned runs and 10 hits in 5.2 innings of a 7-2 defeat at Los Angeles. The seven runs given up by the Jays' lefty equaled the amount of runs Cecil allowed in his previous four starts combined. Toronto owns a 6-3 record in Cecil's nine outings as a road underdog, including three wins at Tampa Bay and New York. Cecil was outdueled by Lester at Rogers Center on April 28, as the Sox shut out the Jays, 2-0.

The Sox have owned this series, going 9-2 this season, including a 2-1 mark at Fenway. Each of the last three meetings finished 'over' the total, while two of the three matchups in Boston cashed the 'under'.

Giants at Cardinals - 8:10 PM EST

Two teams knocking on the playoff door in the National League are playing their worst baseball at the worst possible time, as they meet at Busch Stadium. St. Louis looks to snap a four-game skid, losing each contest at home to Chicago and Milwaukee. San Francisco hasn't performed well on the East Coast recently, losing six of its last seven at Atlanta and Philadelphia.

The Cards try to get over the hump with recently acquired Jake Westbrook (1-0, 3.32 ERA) taking the mound. Despite one win in three starts since getting traded from Cleveland at the deadline, Westbrook has delivered quality outings in each appearance. The groundball pitcher has won only three decisions since mid-June, with all three victories coming at home, including last Friday's 6-3 triumph over the Cubs.

Rookie Madison Bumgarner (4-4, 3.27 ERA) goes for the Giants, trying to pick up his fifth road win in seven tries. The San Francisco southpaw was taken off the hook in his last outing against San Diego as the Giants rallied for a 3-2 win in extra-innings. Bumgarner scattered eight hits and two earned runs in seven innings, only his third quality start in his previous six outings. The Giants have cashed the 'under' in seven of Bumgarner's last nine starts, and eight of his 10 outings overall.

All three meetings at AT&T Park in April finished 'under' the total, as the Giants grabbed two of three games. San Francisco is 4-3 the last seven matchups at Busch Stadium, while the two teams split a four-game set in St. Louis in 2009.

Angels at Twins - 8:10 PM EST

A pair of playoff squads from a season ago is headed in different directions as Minnesota and Los Angeles meet up for the first time since the opening series of the season. The Twins are starting to open things up in the AL Central following another series win over the White Sox, owning a five-game advantage heading into Thursday's action.

The Halos went from the ALCS to possibly third place in their own division in less than 12 months, as Dan Haren (1-3, 3.44 ERA) makes his sixth start in an Angels' uniform. The former Diamondbacks' ace has received little run support in Los Angeles, as the Halos have averaged 2.4 in his first five outings. Haren has not been listed as an underdog with the Angels, but Arizona was 0-7 in his seven starts at plus-money.

Brian Duensing (6-1, 2.00 ERA) is fresh off a complete-game shutout over the A's, scattering three hits in a 2-0 victory. Duensing has faced four teams sitting below .500, with the Rays being the only substantial club that the lefty has started against. In Duensing's last three home starts dating back to last September, the Minnesota southpaw hasn't allowed a run in 22.1 innings of work.

The Twins won three of four meetings in Anaheim to begin the season, as the Angels make their first appearance at Target Field. The two teams split six games at the Metrodome last season, as both squads pulled off three-game sweeps.

vegasinsider.com

MLB RoundUp For 8/20
By Dan Bebe

National League

Braves (-135) @ Cubs with a total of N/A
There are absolutely a few factors going head-to-head in this one that makes it an interesting afternoon game to bet. For one, Jurrjens has not been good, at all, on the road. However, in that same vein, Jurrjens is coming off his best road start of the season (2 starts back) in Houston, and his last 3 consecutive starts have all been very, very good. He's just 0-1 with a 3.27 ERA lifetime against the Cubs, so not much experience, there, and we can't draw a ton from the player matchups. Dempster, meanwhile, is 2-10 lifetime against the Braves. His ERA against them is 4.98, which isn't good, but it's not nearly as bad as some other career numbers we've seen this year, and the current Braves haven't done anything against him. Dempster hasn't been all that convincing, but the Cubs have given him a ton of run support, lately. Which of these factors will prevail?

Mets (-130) @ Pirates with a total of 8
Pelfrey, after one of the ugliest stretches for any competent pitcher, seems to have sorted things out. His last 2 starts have been solid, but the Mets complete inability to score make backing Pelfrey, home or road, just as tenuous as backing anyone else on the staff. Jeff Karstens is something of a loser. He's 2-9 with a 4.57 ERA, and just finds ways to put the Pirates behind, even if it's a low-scoring game. He's 0-1 with a 5.27 ERA against the Mets lifetime, and Pelfrey has equally crummy numbers against the Pirates. This one is a pass on the side, and if you take the total, you have to bet on mediocrity.

Nationals @ Phillies (-360) with a total of 8
Holy mackerel! I'm not even handicapping this one. Sorry. Put a quarter unit on the Nationals, and hope that it gets turned into almost a full unit. Hell, if you can find a book that'll give you 2.5 runs, do that. Hah.

Astros @ Marlins (-145) with a total of 8
Jay Happ is looking like a nice pickup for the Astros, pitching well in all of his Houston starts except one. Of course, to me, the Astros look like a team that, right now, is sort of a "missed the boat" situation. They played strong baseball for a couple weeks after the trade deadline, and they're still finding ways to win a few games, but most of their prowess occurs at home. The young guys, not surprisingly, are playing much, much better in front of the home crowd, with the home clubhouse, friendly pitching mound, and so on and so forth. On the road in Florida's stinker of a ballpark, this team is going to get steamrolled. Anibal Sanchez is 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA against Houston, and while Happ is 1-0 against the Marlins, his career 5.51 ERA would seem to indicate that he did enough to win, but not enough to win with Houston.

Padres @ Brewers (-145) with a total of 8
Let's see, here. The best team in the NL as a dog? It's tempting, I'll admit, and LeBlanc has been, quietly, one of the better pitchers on a very good Padres staff. This will be the second time Milwaukee's seeing LeBlanc this year, and he shut them out for 6.1 innings back in April. I wonder if he can do it again. I will admit, there's something a little disconcerting about expecting a change-up artist to dominate a decent offensive team 2 times in the same year. Yes, it helps that there was a 4 month break between times the Brewers see him, but I doubt he throws another shutout. Gallardo, meanwhile, continues to have a nice season or a bad team. He should be good for 6-7 innings against a team that has "just enough" on offense.

Giants @ Cardinals (-145) with a total of 8
Here's a line that doesn't really add up. Now, it's on us to determine if this is just a mistake by the oddsmakers (unlikely), the betting public thinks more highly of the Cardinals than we realize (possible), or the feeble road performances of the Giants and the rapidly accelerating Padres have made San Francisco a potential fade (also possible). Westbrook has been exactly what the Cardinals hoped since his acquisition - a solid veteran that gives a quality effort every time out. He's not going to dominate any competent offensive teams, but he's going 6-7 innings, giving up 2-3 runs, and giving his guys a solid chance to win. This game, to me, is closer to a coin-flip than the line would indicate, though, and I think you have to consider the Giants, even if they only win this game 45% of the time. The volume approach, perhaps.

Rockies @ D'backs (-130) with a total of 10
Let's start with the easy part of this one -- Esmil Rogers is not Major League-ready. Flat out. The kid has made 4 starts, and he's yet to give up fewer than 4 runs; he's yet to go deeper than 6 innings, and yet to give up less than a hit per inning. Arizona will score a few runs in this game, hence the outrageously high total for a game without wind. Ian Kennedy, to me, is the wild card. He's had 2 good starts in a row, and while he did allow 4 runs to the Brewers 2 starts back, he straightened things out and dominated the final 3 innings of that effort. His opponents' hits numbers are down in those 2 starts, and that's a good sign that some of the life is back on his stuff. He hasn't been particularly good against the Rockies, though some bad defense didn't help him. That could happen again, since this is, after all, the D'backs, and the Rockies' pen is vastly superior. The D'backs look great on paper, but those last couple innings scare the urine out of me.

Reds @ Dodgers (-135) with a total of 7.5
If there's one team that can wake the Dodgers up, it's the Cincinnati Reds. I mean, we're talking about a series that has just been completely and utterly owned by the Dodgers over the last few years, and continuing into this season. Of course, that assumes the Dodgers are playing for something. Right now, the motivational edge is colossal in favor of the Reds. They're charging hard, and opening up a division lead over the Cards, and the Dodgers are, for all intents and purposes, done for the year. Padilla got stomped in his last 2 road starts, and though his home/road splits are disturbingly positive for him pitching at home, it's tough to lay this kind of price on a team that may or may not actually try to win.

American League

Indians @ Tigers (-140) with a total of 9
Does anyone else feel like Armando Galarraga has parlayed a near-perfect game into another full season of starting when, really, he should be a long reliever? That's how I feel. His numbers, across the board, are just not very good. He seems to give up at least 3-4 runs in every start, home or road, regardless of opponent, and the only recent start that Armando didn't give up 3-4 runs was when he got yanked after just 4.1 innings. Cleveland generally doesn't play all that well against Detroit, but the Tigers are flailing right now, sporting the worst record in baseball since the All Star Break, and even though the Indians aren't (to use an expression I like) world-beaters, Masterson has the ability to be brilliant. At this dog price, it's Indians or nothing.

Mariners @ Yankees (-145) with a total of 8
The shortness of this line is strongly indicative of the world's respect for King Felix. I suppose it's partially because Burnett is such a hit-or-mostly-miss starter, but he is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA against the Mariners, lifetime. Felix Hernandez has dominated the Yankees twice this year, already, so now we have the added issue of the dreaded "third start," as well. Can he do it again? I'm inclined to think that the Yankees do score a couple runs off Felix, who has slowed just a tiny bit since his unbelievable run a month back. Burnett is coming off a strong start in Kansas City, and that head case can be pretty streaky, too. Believe me, I'm looking for a way to back the Mariners, but I'm not sure I've got the gumption.

Rangers (-185) @ Orioles with a total of 9
Rematch time. No exclamation point, since it's not a truly exciting one, but Baltimore did take round one, and it shouldn't have surprised you. I guess that's the interesting part. Jake Arrieta, another inconsistent Orioles starter just getting his feet wet, gave up just a run to the Rangers in a 4-1 Orioles win. C.J. Wilson is 1-3 with a 7.15 ERA against the Orioles lifetime, so for whatever reason, that orange is just not a color that Wilson wants to see. Admittedly, the O's haven't seen a ton of Wilson, since he was a reliever up until quite recently, but his start against them this year was an ugly one, and sometimes a pitcher just doesn't like a particular opponent.

Blue Jays @ Red Sox (-185) with a total of 8
This looks like a wildly lopsided match-up, and honestly, it might be just that. I expect Toronto to score a few runs with that giant wall just beyond the infield at Fenway, but Jon Lester is 6-3 with a 2.74 ERA lifetime against the Jays, and Brett Cecil is 0-3 with a 7.80 ERA against the Red Sox. I'm not backing Toronto, but that total of 8 looks clearable if Toronto can put up 3 runs. You guys know how I feel about home run lines, but it's that, the Over, or nothing. Given how many times I've written sentences just like that one, you all can probably guess that it's more than likely the "nothing" option.

Angels @ Twins (-150) with a total of 8
Wow. I don't even know what to make of this line. I know the Angels have basically given up on the year, but to see Dan Haren at this size of a dog to Brian Duensing was, well, a little shocking. Duensing's been good, but he just has that "no one notices me" name, a similarly boring arsenal of pitches, and he just sort of goes about his business getting people out. Haren, to his credit, has been decent for the Angels, but it hasn't been enough, and the Twins, being, arguably, the hottest team in baseball, are definitely starting to get the public money, as evidenced by this ridiculously high line.

White Sox (-156) @ Royals with a total of 9.5
Based on the inflated opening number, this is the type of game where I'd normally look for a way to back the home team, but I've been largely disappointed with O'Sullivan's work in the Bigs. He's 1-4 with a 5.27 ERA, and 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA in his brief work against the White Sox. Chicago desperately needs wins if they're going to stay in the AL Central race, and while I don't think I can bring myself to lay the large road chalk (it's not impossible, but unlikely), I also don't trust the Royals enough to get behind them, either. Not to mention Jackson's been a beast since returning to the AL.

Rays (-145) @ Athletics with a total of 7.5
Both of these pitchers have been absolutely red hot. Hellickson was great in the Minors, and he's been equally impressive in the Bigs, if not more so. Perhaps the best stat is that in his 3 starts, Hellickson has allowed a combined 9 hits! That's over 20 innings of work. He's just been amazing. Mazzaro, a solid A's youngster, has had 3 straight quality starts, and 7 of his last 8 starts have been of quality status. I wouldn't be surprised to see some nasty curveballs in the cool Oakland air. I don't really like either side at this price, and with the Rays solid pen and the A's good home pen work, this one might sneak Under, though the line is fairly deflated already.

Diamond Trends - Friday
By Vince Akins

Rays at Athletics – The Athletics are 0-7 since May 30, 2010 as a dog when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Athletics are 0-6 since June 11, 2010 after a win in which their starter pitched at least 8 innings for a net profit of $670 when playing against. The Athletics are 0-6 since June 28, 2009 when Vin Mazzaro starts vs a team that won their starters last three starts for a net profit of $605 when playing against.

Padres at Brewers – The Brewers are 0-7 since June 09, 2010 after a win in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Brewers are 7-0 since May 20, 2010 as a favorite when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $700.

Giants at Cardinals – The Giants are 6-0 since May 28, 2010 vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $600. The Cardinals are 7-0 since April 16, 2010 as a favorite after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $700.

Braves at Cubs – The Braves are 0-7 since July 28, 2009 when Jair Jurrjens starts on the road vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $790 when playing against. The Cubs are 5-0 since August 23, 2009 when Ryan Dempster starts in August for a net profit of $660.

Rockies at Diamondbacks – The Rockies are 0-8 since May 19, 2010 on the road vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $800 when playing against.

Reds at Dodgers – The Reds are 6-0 since August 28, 2009 when Homer Bailey starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $680.

Astros at Marlins – The Astros are 4-0 since April 18, 2010 as a road dog after a win in which they drew 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $690. The Marlins are 5-0 since May 14, 2010 after a win in which they did not walk the opponent for a net profit of $580.

Rangers at Orioles – The Rangers are 6-0 since June 20, 2010 when C.J. Wilson starts as a 140+ favorite after the team won his last two starts for a net profit of $600.

Nationals at Phillies – The Nationals are 0-6 since May 01, 2010 on the road after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent as a dog for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Phillies are 9-0 since April 05, 2010 as a 200+ favorite and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $900. The Phillies are 8-0 since April 16, 2010 when Roy Halladay starts as a favorite after giving up no walks for a net profit of $800.

Mets at Pirates – The Pirates are 7-0 since May 31, 2010 at home within 20 cents of pickem after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $765. The Pirates are 0-7 since May 02, 2010 when Jeff Karstens starts as a dog after the team lost their last two games for a net profit of $700 when playing against.

Blue Jays at Red Sox – The Blue Jays are 8-0 since August 31, 2009 when Brett Cecil starts as a dog in the first game of a series for a net profit of $1065. The Blue Jays are 4-0 since April 23, 2010 as a road dog when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $635. The Red Sox are 11-0 since May 09, 2010 as a home favorite after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $1100. The Red Sox are 7-0 since April 20, 2010 at home after a loss and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $700.

White Sox at Royals – The White Sox are 6-0 since May 22, 2010 as a favorite after shutting out their opponent for a net profit of $600. The Royals are 0-7 since July 20, 2010 as a dog when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $700 when playing against.

Indians at Tigers – The Indians are 0-7 since May 13, 2010 as a road dog vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Tigers are 6-0 since June 11, 2010 as a home 140+ favorite and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $600.

Angels at Twins – The Angels are 0-8 since June 20, 2010 on the road after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $865 when playing against.

Mariners at Yankees – The Yankees are 0-6 since August 17, 2009 when A.J. Burnett starts in August for a net profit of $950 when playing against. The Yankees are 10-0 since April 28, 2010 as a 140+ favorite when their starter went at least eight innings in his last start for a net profit of $1000. The Yankees are 9-0 since May 30, 2010 at home when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $900