What bettors need to know: Yankees at Red Sox
By David Chan
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
Season series
If you're looking at the entire season, the Red Sox have dominated the Yankees, winning eight of 12 matchups.
However, both teams are singing a much different tune after the Yankees swept the Red Sox in a four-game series in the Bronx two weeks ago.
Betting the home side has been a highly profitable endeavor, as the host has taken 10 out of 12 meetings.
The Red Sox did manage to sweep a short two-game series in New York back in early May.
Streaks and stats
The Yankees improved to 5-2 on their current road trip with a win in Oakland Wednesday. They enter this series riding an incredible 14-3 run.
New York has also won eight of its last 10 games on the road to move eight games over .500 as the visitor this season.
The Red Sox have played much better baseball since taking a beating at the hands of the Yankees. Since that four-game sweep they have won six of nine games (pending Thursday's result).
Fenway Park hasn't been quite as kind to the Sox lately. They've won only five of their last nine games in the shadow of the Green Monster.
Pitching matchups
Friday
Andy Pettitte (9-6, 4.09 ERA) vs. Brad Penny (7-7, 5.22 ERA)
Andy Pettitte has been outstanding lately, giving up only four earned runs over his last four starts. He struck out a season high 10 batters against the Mariners in his last start.
Pettitte is 16-9 in 32 career starts against the Red Sox, most recently pitching his team to a 5-2 win on August 9.
Brad Penny continues to battle mediocrity, now an even 7-7 on the season. He has been tagged for at least four earned runs in three of his last four starts.
Penny has faced the Yankees once this season, earning a no-decision despite throwing six innings of shutout ball in a 4-3 Red Sox victory.
Saturday
A.J. Burnett (10-6, 3.69 ERA) vs. Junichi Tazawa (1-2, 5.40 ERA)
A.J. Burnett was a hard-luck loser in his last start in Oakland, falling 3-0 despite tossing eight quality innings.
The Yankees right-hander has been terrific in his career against the Red Sox 5-1 with a 3.39 ERA in 11 starts. On August 7, he gave up only one hit over 7 2-3 innings against the Sox.
You'll remember that Junichi Tazawa got his first taste of big league ball in that 15-inning marathon against the Yankees. He gave up the game-winning two-run shot to Alex Rodriguez.
Since then, Tazawa has settled down, splitting a pair of decisions against the Tigers and Rangers. He has been hit hard, however, giving up 18 hits in 11 2-3 innings pitched.
Sunday
C.C. Sabathia (14-7, 3.58 ERA) vs. Josh Beckett (14-4, 3.38 ERA)
The series finale is a dream matchup for ESPN when both teams' aces go head-to-head.
Sabathia has reeled off four consecutive victories, lasting eight innings in each of his last two starts. He has struck out 26 batters while giving up only 10 hits in his last 23 2-3 innings pitched.
Sabathia is just 3-5 with a 3.57 ERA in nine career starts against Boston.
Like Sabathia, Josh Beckett will also be going for his 15th win of the season Sunday.
Beckett was hit hard against the Blue Jays in his last start, giving up nine hits and seven earned runs over 5 1-3 innings. Prior to that, he had lasted at least seven innings in six consecutive starts.
The Red Sox are 15-4 in Beckett's last 19 starts and are 3-1 in his four starts against the Yankees this season.
Injury report
The Yankees have two key recent injuries worth mentioning. Brett Gardner remains on the DL while Hideki Matsui had fluid drained from his knee last Sunday, but returned to the lineup Tuesday.
Recent Red Sox injuries of note include Rocco Baldelli (bruised ankle, 15-day DL), Jason Varitek (strained neck, day-to-day), and J.D. Drew (sore groin, returned Tuesday).
Odds and ends
The Yankees continue their 10-game road trip which has already taken them to Seattle and Oakland.
Boston makes the short trip from Toronto to open up a 10-game homestand.
The two teams own almost identical records in series openers this season. The Yankees check in at 23-16 while the Red Sox are 24-15.
New York is 20-8 in its last 28 Friday games.
Friday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
J.D. Martin, Washington Nationals (2-2, 4.61)
We don’t get to talk about Nats starters very often when it comes to win streaks, so we have to jump on it when the opportunity arises.
Washington has won Martin’s last three starts and he seems to be getting better with every trip to the hill. Perhaps the rookie is getting over some beginner’s jitters after he gave up five earned runs in two of his first three starts.
Martin’s ERA is just 2.35 over his past three outings, though he’s been a consistent over bet lately with his last five starts toppling the total.
Slumping
Sean O’Sullivan, Los Angeles Angels (3-1, 5.91)
O’Sullivan is living the dream life of a rookie pitcher through eight starts – his team is covering up all his mistakes with its play at the plate.
The Angels are 7-1 in the 22-year-old right-hander’s starts despite the fact he has a ballooning ERA that is greater than 10 runs over his past three starts. That’s good for bettors. The lofty ERA means O’Sully is usually an underdog when he steps on the mound and that has helped him climb to No. 12 in our starting pitcher money standings.
O’Sullivan gave up 12 runs in fewer than nine innings in his two most recent games – both of which were against AL East opponents. He faces the Jays Friday.
Charlie Morton, Pittsburgh Pirates (2-6, 5.51 ERA)
It was a toss-up of whether to go with Morton or his Friday counterpart, Micah Owings, for our second slumper. Both guys have ERAs of more than 11 runs over their past three games.
Let’s let them battle for our love as the Reds and Bucs fight for last place in the NL Central.
We’ll hold Morton dearest to our hearts for now because he’s the dude who started the hemorrhaging in the Cubs’ 17-2 massacre over the Pirates last week. Viewer discretion is advised before looking at Morton’s stats in that one: One inning pitched. Forty-nine pitches. Seven hits. Ten earned runs. One battered ego.
N.Y. Yankees (76-45) at Boston (69-51)
The red-hot Yankees, sporting the best record in baseball, trot out southpaw Andy Pettitte (9-6, 4.09 ERA) for the opener of a three-game weekend set at Fenway Park against the archrival Red Sox, who are expected to counter with right-hander Brad Penny (7-7, 5.22).
New York snapped a two-game hiccup by winning two in a row to close out a three-game set at Oakland, capped by a 3-2 victory Wednesday night. The Yankees are on a 14-3 tear in their last 17 games and are on further streaks of 8-2 on the road, 23-7 inside the A.L. East, 14-5 in series openers and 35-17 against winning teams.
Boston completed a three-game sweep at Toronto with an 8-1 rout Thursday night, bolstered by two J.D. Drew home runs in back-to-back at-bats. The Sox are on upswings of 22-8 at home following a road trip of seven or more days, 37-16 overall at Fenway and 36-17 in series openers, but they’re still on slides of 3-6 in division tilts and 1-10 as an underdog.
The Red Sox won the first eight clashes this season between these rivals and had won nine in a row overall before New York posted a four-game home sweep earlier this month. The Yankees shut out Boston twice in that series and outscored the Sox by a combined 25-8 total. However, Boston is still 7-0 in the last seven Fenway meetings between these two.
The Yankees have won three in a row behind Pettitte, with the lefty allowing just three runs over 19 2/3 innings in that stretch, for a 1.37 ERA. Last Friday at Seattle, he allowed two runs on six hits and a walk while striking out 10 in six innings of a 4-2 victory, though he got a no-decision. Pettitte is 5-2 with a 3.17 ERA in 11 road starts this year, and he’s a solid 16-9 with a 3.63 ERA in 34 career appearances (32 starts) against Boston, throwing seven shutout innings in a 5-2 home win Aug. 9.
New York is on rolls behind Pettitte of 17-8 overall, 5-0 on Friday, 6-1 in series openers, 6-2 on the road and 42-20 in division play.
The Red Sox have lost in seven of Penny’s last nine outings, including a 7-2 setback at Texas on Saturday, in which he allowed four runs on eight hits and four walks in 5 2/3 innings. Penny has allowed four runs or more four times in his last nine starts. The righty is 5-2 with a 4.70 ERA in 12 home starts this season, and he’s 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA in two career starts against the Yanks. In his only outing this year against New York, he threw six shutout innings in a 4-3 home win June 11.
Boston is 6-2 in its last eight series openers behind Penny, but the Sox are on a 2-5 slide with the 31-year-old facing winning teams.
The under for New York is on surges of 9-4 overall, 5-1 in the A.L. East and 7-2-2 after a day off, and with Pettitte throwing, the under is on additional rolls of 40-16-2 overall, 21-6-1 on the road and 20-8-2 inside the division. Likewise, the under for Boston is on stretches of 4-1 in division play, 8-2 at home against lefties and 4-1 behind Penny in division contests, although the total has gone high in seven of the Sox’s last eight home games.
Finally, the over is 5-1 in Pettitte’s last six starts against the Sox, but overall, under is on runs of 5-1-1 in the last seven clashes between these teams and 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings at Fenway Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
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SCOREBOARD
Friday, Aug. 21
New York Yankees at Boston (7:10 p.m. EDT). The Yankees' Andy Pettitte (9-6, 4.09 ERA) faces Brad Penny (7-7, 5.22) and the Red Sox in the opener of a three-game series at Fenway Park.
STARS
Thursday
-J.D. Drew, Red Sox, hit two home runs as Boston beat Toronto 8-1 to complete a three-game sweep.
-Russell Martin, Dodgers, snapped a sixth-inning tie with a grand slam, leading Los Angeles to a 7-2 victory over the Chicago Cubs.
-Brendan Ryan, Cardinals, hit a grand slam to lead St. Louis to a 5-1 win over San Diego.
-Jayson Werth and Joe Blanton, Phillies. Werth hit his fourth home run in three games and Blanton pitched eight innings and had two hits as Philadelphia finished off a three-game sweep of Arizona with a 12-3 rout.
-Julio Borbon, Rangers, hit his first career homer and went 3 for 5 with three RBIs, raising his average to .536 (15 for 28) in seven starts since being recalled from Triple-A Oklahoma City, and Texas beat Minnesota 11-1.
-Drew Stubbs, Reds, hit his first career homer leading off the bottom of the 10th inning to give Cincinnati a 2-1 victory over San Francisco.
-Wandy Rodriguez, Astros, limited Florida to four hits while pitching into the ninth inning and hit an RBI double in Houston's 4-1 victory.
HOMER HAPPY
Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth and Carlos Ruiz homered for the Phillies in their 12-3 victory over Arizona. Philadelphia has hit at least one home run in 10 straight games and leads the National League with 171. ... The Red Sox have hit two or more homers in six consecutive games, nine of 10 and 15 of 19. The Red Sox have 33 homers in August, two shy of the team record for that month set in 2006.
STREAKS
Joe Blanton had two singles, the first multi-hit game of his career, to become the third straight Phillies pitcher to record two hits in a game. Jamie Moyer and Cliff Lee did it Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. The Phillies beat Arizona 12-3 for their fourth straight win and eighth in nine games. ... Colorado has won four straight and eight of 11 after beating Washington 4-1 to complete a three-game sweep. ... Florida's Hanley Ramirez beat out an infield single with two outs in the third to stretch his hitting streak to a career-high 15 games. ... The Red Sox have hit two or more homers in five consecutive games, and nine of 10.
SLAMS
Brian Roberts hit his fourth career grand slam in the sixth inning of the Orioles' 8-7 win over Tampa Bay. ... Russell Martin snapped a sixth-inning tie with a grand slam, propelling the Dodgers to a 7-2 victory over the Cubs. It was Martin's second career slam. ... Brendan Ryan hit his first grand slam in the second inning and St. Louis beat San Diego 5-1.
SNAPPED
Florida was limited to four hits in its 4-1 loss to Houston, ending its streak of 10-hit games at 15. That was the best stretch since the St. Louis Browns had one that long in 1937, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. The record is 18, set by the 1922 Browns and matched by the 1925 Cleveland Indians. Florida ace Josh Johnson (12-3) lost for the first time in seven starts. ... Carlos Gonzalez's club record-tying streak of four games with a homer ended, though he had an RBI double to help Colorado beat Washington 4-1. ... The Orioles stopped a five-game skid and ended the Rays' four-game winning streak with an 8-7 victory.
BILLY'S BACK
Mets reliever Billy Wagner made his first appearance since Aug. 2, 2008, and struck out two in a perfect eighth inning of New York's 3-2 loss to Atlanta. The former closer with 385 saves had Tommy John surgery on Sept. 10, but the 38-year-old Wagner recovered quickly and even reached 96 mph with his fastball.
SPEAKING
"The reasonable expectation is you are going to get a nasty guy on the mound who will regain his nastiness. Otherwise, I wouldn't be here.'' - John Smoltz after joining the Cardinals in San Diego. Cut by the Red Sox, he is expected to start Sunday against the Padres.
Slumping & Bumping Probable Pitchers
By: Freddy Willis
Probable Hot Starting Pitchers:
Andy Pettitte (Yankees)
I am just as surprised to feature Andy here as it is the first time all season he has made the list as a hot starter. He's quietly having a very productive year after struggling early mainly due to the long ball he has not given up a home run in his last 5 starts and has a 2.23 ERA to show for it with a 1.02 WHIP. The Yankees are 17-8 in his last 25 starts overall including 6-2 in his last 8 road. Signing him seems to be a good idea.
He'll take the ball on the road tomorrow night against the Red Sox where he has a 3.17 ERA on the road, but the Red Sox have hit Pettitte hard over his career with a collective .333avg and 8HR. However, these are not your old Red Sox as Varitek and Ortiz who have killed Pettitte in the past just are not the same hitters. In fact Pettitte has 2 quality starts against the Sox this year going 13IP giving up 11H 6 BB and 3ER.
Red Sox just do not hit LHP as well as RHP. At home this year their batting average is .31pts less vs. LHP than RHP and they are scoring 1.43 runs per 9 innings less as well at home. However, they still carry a 45-22 record vs. LH starters in their last 67 games vs. The Live sports odds have Pettitte and the Yankees as favorites of -118 going up against Brad Penny.
Notables - Last 5 Starts!
Gavin Floyd (2-1, 1.17 WHIP, 2.31 ERA) Gio Gonzalez (3-1, 1.35 WHIP, 2.73 ERA)
Most likely to sustain and win:
Gavin Floyd
Probable Cold Starting Pitchers:
Nick Blackburn (Twins)
It has been a complete 180 for Blackburn since the All-Star break as he has been just awful. Pre-All-Star he had ERA of 3.07 with an 8-4 record. He has 8 post All-Star starts and is 0-4 with a 10.17 ERA.
So what went wrong with Blackburn? I'm not sure, but his location has not been off, but he seems to be catching too much of the plate in 25.2 IP in the second half of the year he has just 5 BB, but he has given up 7 HR and an incredible 50 hits. Just amazing and a complete opposite second half for him. He will be facing the Royals who hit him hard earlier in August knocking him out in the 2nd inning. Blackburn's final line was 1.2 IP 6H 6ER.
Notables - Last 5 Starts!
* Micah Owings (2-3 1.88 WHIP, 6.84 ERA) * Braden Looper (1-2, 1.60 WHIP, 6.59 ERA) * Charlie Morton (0-4, 1.99 WHIP, 8.34 ERA) * Aaron Cook (1-2, 1.65 WHIP, 6.26 ERA) * Dave Huff (3-2, 1.70 WHIP, 6.46 ERA) * Sean O'Sullivan (1-1, 1.62 WHIP, 8.03 ERA) * Luke Hochevar (1-3, 1.66 WHIP, 7.14 ERA) * Jeremy Guthrie (0-4, 1.74 WHIP, 7.55 ERA)
Most likely to rebound:
Aaron Cook