MLB News and Notes Friday 8/27

Friday MLB Tips
By Kevin Rogers

The final Friday of August is here, as teams head down the stretch in the baseball season. Even with college football starting next week and NFL preseason in full tilt, there is plenty still to be figured out around the Major League Baseball pennant races. The American League features three key contests which involve a squad looking to make a late run. We'll start with the rematch of the 2008 ALCS at Tropicana Field between Boston and Tampa Bay.

Red Sox at Rays - 7:10 PM EST

These AL East rivals meet six more times before the end of the regular season, starting with a crucial three-game set at the Trop. The Sox come to the Sunshine State after taking two of three from the Mariners, while the Rays return home from a 4-3 West Coast trip. Tampa Bay owns a 5 ½-game lead over Boston in both the AL Wild Card and AL East race, as each team sends out their southpaw ace in the series opener.

David Price (15-5, 2.97 ERA) has been money all season, especially at home. The Rays' lefty is 7-1 in 11 starts at the Trop, while losing once at home since the start of June. Price continues to get solid run support, with the Rays averaging nearly 4.9 runs/game in his last eight outings. Tampa Bay owns a 2-1 record in Price's three career starts against the Red Sox, including a 6-4 victory in early July, striking out 10 in 7.2 innings of work.

The Sox counter with Jon Lester (13-8, 3.26 ERA), who received an extra day of rest after getting scratched on Wednesday against Seattle. Lester would like to erase the memory of getting racked by Toronto in his last start, allowing nine earned runs in just two innings of a 16-2 thumping. That outing was in stark contrast to the consecutive road wins over the Rangers and Yankees in which Lester didn't give up a run against those division leaders. Boston is just 2-5 in Lester's seven starts since the All-Star Break, but the southpaw has pitched well at Tropicana Field. Lester is 2-0 in his last two starts in St. Pete, yielding eight hits and two earned runs, including a scoreless one-hit effort on May 25.

Tampa Bay leads the season series, 8-4 after pulling off a home sweep in early July. Out of their four series this season, three have ended in sweeps, including Boston's broom job of a three-game set in late May at the Trop.

Athletics at Rangers - 8:05 PM EST

Texas is coming off an impressive series victory over Minnesota in Arlington, as the Rangers continue their homestand against the A's. Oakland is probably not going to catch Texas in the AL West, sitting 8 ½ games back with five weeks to go. The Rangers look to keep up their solid pitching with one of their young guns taking the mound in the series opener.

Tommy Hunter (10-2, 3.68 ERA) rebounded from a pair of poor starts to beat the Orioles his last time out, allowing five hits and three earned runs in eight innings. That was a nice improvement from the combined 10 hits and eight earned runs given up in just six innings against the Red Sox and Rays. Hunter is unbeaten in six home decisions, as the Rangers are beating opponents by 3.5 runs/game in his seven starts in Arlington. The right-hander is seeing the A's for the first time this season after Texas beat Oakland in his three starts in 2009.

The A's are just 2-7 in their last nine away games against teams above .500, while winning four of their previous five road series versus below .500 squads. Brett Anderson (3-4, 2.86 ERA) has pitched well lately, but has no victories to show for it. The Oakland southpaw has allowed five earned runs in his previous three starts, as the A's have plated just five runs in three defeats. The A's went 2-2 in Anderson's four starts against the Rangers in 2009, but both losses came in Arlington, including a 14-1 setback last May.

These two teams have split 12 meetings this season, while the Rangers are 4-2 in six home matchups. The A's perform their worst in series openers, owning a 16-25 mark in Game 1's of a series. On the flip side, Texas has won five straight home series openers since the All-Star Break.

Yankees at White Sox - 8:15 PM EST

Chicago is quickly falling out of the AL Central race, sitting 3 ½ games behind Minnesota, as the Sox are on a 5-11 slide over the last two weeks. Ozzie Guillen's team hosts the Yankees, as New York begins Friday's action tied atop the AL East with Tampa Bay.

The Sox turn to veteran Freddy Garcia (10-5, 5.08 ERA), who has been miserable over his last three starts. Garcia allowed 15 earned runs and 22 hits in three losses to the Twins, Royals, and Tigers, while his home ERA spiked to 4.88. The one constant for Garcia since the All-Star Break is seven consecutive 'overs,' with at least ten runs scored in each of those contests. Garcia lost in the Bronx as a $2.10 underdog in late April, 6-4, as the righty tossed six innings and allowed four earned runs.

A.J. Burnett (9-11, 4.80 ERA) has had problems with consistency by failing to string together three consecutive quality starts this season. To top it off, Burnett is winless in four August outings, while the Bombers have been shut out in his last two starts. Five of Burnett's last six starts have finished 'under' the total, but it's tough to anticipate which Yankees' lineup will show up for the right-hander. Burnett was lit up in his last trip to the South Side, giving up 10 hits and seven earned runs in 4.2 innings of a 14-4 drubbing last August.

The Yankees and White Sox played to three 'overs' in the Bronx earlier this season, while the Bombers took two of the three meetings. Chicago claimed three of four matchups last season on the South Side, including three 'overs.'

vegasinsider.com

MLB RoundUp For 8/27
By Dan Bebe

National League

Cardinals (-180) @ Nationals with a total of 8
Jaime Garcia is coming off just a gem of a performance at home against the Giants, and he has indeed been better at home than on the road. While I'd love to suggest the dog, Olsen is 1-4 with a 6.10 ERA lifetime against the Cards, and really hasn't looked good, at all, since coming off the DL.

Cubs @ Reds (-175) with a total of 9
This game might be tougher for the Reds than people realize. Sure, they're the team with all the motivation, but that first game home off a long road trip through the NL West is going to be a sluggish one. Cubs might steal the opener, as Cueto really hasn't been anything special against the Northsiders, and Gorzelanny, somehow, is still having a decent year.

Astros @ Mets (-145) with a total of 7.5
Nelson Figueroa comes home to face his old team, though he did see them in Houston, already. He went 5 innings and allowed a run in that start, and he's been getting steadily better in each of his 3 efforts. Houston has won all 3 of his starts, too. Pelfrey, meanwhile, got pushed back a couple days, and while we might hear conflicting reports, I'm guessing he just didn't want to face the Marlins. Just a guess, though. He's been okay against the Astros in his career, and has been ramping back up over his last 3 starts. The Under is interesting, though the number is already pretty low, and Houston is on a roll right now, so they're a possibility, too.

Marlins @ Braves (-205) with a total of 8.5
Chris Volstad remains a perma-fade for me, though at this price, I'd prefer to just leave this one alone. Hanson, by the way, is a stellar 3-0 with a 2.19 ERA against the Fish, so this isn't a particularly good matchup for the Marlins. I'm not saying I like the home run line, but I don't not like it. Eh?

Pirates @ Brewers (-155) with a total of 9
This will be Narveson's 3rd start of the year against Pittsburgh, and he's been, let's say, bearable, in each of the previous 2. He wasn't good, and given his make-up, he probably won't ever be quite that good, but he did enough. He's coming off a very ugly start against the Padres, and with young guys, I'm always concerned that one start can mean there are more clunkers in the tank. James McDonald hasn't been terribly impressive, either, and he'll be making his first start against the Brewers, though not his first appearance. This line does feel oddly low, considering Milwaukee was a bigger favorite to the Dodgers, yesterday, and that does concern me.

Dodgers @ Rockies (-150) with a total of 7.5
The tale of two cities. We know how the Dodgers take care of the Rockies at home, but life gets a little tougher at Coors. It's also quite important to look at the splits for guys pitching in Colorado. Kershaw might be 3-2 at Coors Field, but his ERA is 6.39, and that's scary. Both of these teams come into this game with a little momentum, but the Dodgers beat on the lowly Brewers, and the Rockies took it to the East-leading Braves. The Rockies feel like decent bets in this series, though this one is a tad expensive.

Phillies @ Padres (-140) with a total of 6
I know I should want to take a side in this one, but I just don't. Oswalt is 10-2 with a 2.56 lifetime ERA against the Padres, which is pretty darn good. Latos didn't pitch that well against the Phillies earlier this year on the road, but we all know how tough the Padres starters are, at home. The Phillies are also coming to San Diego off getting swept in 4 games, at home, by the Astros. I can only think that these two teams will figure out a way to clear 6 runs. Won't they?

D'back @ Giants (-175) with a total of 7.5
Arizona can't win on the road, or really, against anyone other than the Mets, so backing them, even with Lincecum in his current slump, seems dangerous. I also wouldn't pay this kind of money for the aforementioned slumping Lincecum. What I would do is note that the Giants have scored in double figures in 3 straight games, and the D'backs could potentially score 3 off Timmy and the Giants struggling pen. Over, or nothing.

American League

Royals @ Indians (-140) with a total of 8.5
This is the ultimate "who gives a rat's ass" game of the night. And on top of the completely irrelevant teams, both slumping, going head-to-head, we're seeing two pitchers that we don't know a ton about - pass!

Tigers @ Blue Jays (-125) with a total of 7.5
Toronto has slapped Verlander around a bit, and I know it's a relatively "obvious" stat, but his 1-2, 8.22 lifetime mark against the Jays makes Verlander impossible to back in this one, for me. Does that mean Marcum is the answer? Not necessarily - the guy hasn't been nearly as strong in the 2nd half as he was early this year, and I wonder if some arm fatigue is setting in after missing so much time due to injury. He's been doing more losing lately, but has put together 2 straight strong starts, and we certainly know Detroit can struggle on the road. Verlander did beat Toronto at home, but something just feels different about pitching in the hitter-friendly dome.

Red Sox @ Rays (-130) with a total of 7.5
If the Red Sox can steal any game in this very tough weekend series, it's going to be this one. First game back off a long West coast road trip for Tampa means definite sluggishness. Of course, the banged up Sox might still not have the firepower to handle the Rays, but I don't think I'd back Tampa in this one. Perhaps, Saturday and/or Sunday.

Athletics @ Rangers (-135) with a total of 8.5
Tommy Hunter is the question mark in this game, to me. And the reason I started the note with that is because I feel like most will disagree with me. Hunter is coming off a strong start in Baltimore, but prior to that, had struggled pretty mightily in 3 of his previous 4 outings. I still can't help but think that he's a little low on gas, and those strong starts are coming after very short outings. So, how does he respond in this one to the good start back East? Does the confidence carry over for a few more, or does he go back to fighting it? Anderson should be fine, and we all know how good the A's starting staff has been. This line is pretty cheap, and I think that's largely because of Hunter's recent struggles. Tiny lean to the A's, if I had to pick one.

Yankees (-140) @ White Sox with a total of 9
All these meaningful games, and this is another one where, for whatever reason, I just don't feel too strongly. Garcia's in a bit of a slump, and Burnett is about as erratic as any starter in the League, short of Brian Matusz. Seems like the only thing you could really eyeball is the Over, but even that seems too easy, since both guys could easily turn it up a notch for a big Friday night game and this one could end with 7 runs.

Orioles @ Angels (-160) with a total of 9.5
Brad Bergesen has led the Orioles to wins in each of his last 4 starts, and the Orioles beat Trevor Bell and the Angels just a couple weeks back, in Baltimore. So, our job here is to decide if this line is high because the Angels, despite an ugly season, are still a public team, or if it's high because Bell is going to pitch better, and Bergesen is due for a fall-off. I think one mistake I made during NBA season is that I sometimes give the "betting schmoes" too much credit. They still don't know who Brad Bergesen is, and even though all of us here can see his hot run, most probably don't. The O's are a live dog.

Twins (-140) @ Mariners with a total of 7.5
Okay, I know we can find something here. Vargas is 1-0 with a 1.08 ERA against the Twins, and he pitched very, very well against them earlier this year. Of course, he was also rolling then, but since the beginning of July, Vargas has been much more hit-or-miss. Baker is coming off a very good start against the Angels, and he, too, has been pretty up-and-down. It's actually borderline amazing how many starters today have that same lack of predictability. Still, with the Twins coming off a brutal series in Texas and clearly slipping a little, I think we'll get max effort from the position players.

Diamond Trends - Friday
By Vince Akins

Orioles at Angels – The Orioles are 0-10 since May 02, 2009 when Bradley Bergesen starts as a dog when the bullpen allowed at least three runs yesterday for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The Orioles are 0-6 since June 04, 2010 as a dog after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $600 when playing against.

Tigers at Blue Jays – The Tigers are 7-0 since July 29, 2009 when Justin Verlander starts on the road within 20 cents of pickem for a net profit of $730. The Tigers are 0-7 since April 23, 2010 within 20 cents of pickem when they came back from a deficit to win in their starter's last start for a net profit of $710 when playing against. The Blue Jays are 7-0 since April 15, 2010 as a favorite after a loss in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base for a net profit of $700.

Marlins at Braves – The Marlins are 6-0 since May 19, 2010 as a road dog after a win and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $900. The Braves are 7-0 since May 28, 2010 at home when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $700.

Pirates at Brewers – The Pirates are 0-12 since April 30, 2010 as a road dog when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $1200 when playing against. The Brewers are 0-8 since May 12, 2010 as a home favorite when they won by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $960 when playing against.

Diamondbacks at Giants – The Diamondbacks are 0-8 since April 27, 2010 as a road dog when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Giants are 8-0 since August 18, 2009 when Tim Lincecum starts as a 140+ favorite in the first game of a series for a net profit of $800.

Royals at Indians – The Royals are 0-7 since July 20, 2010 as a dog after a one run win for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Indians are 5-0 since June 11, 2010 at home after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $595.

Twins at Mariners – The Twins are 8-0 since August 14, 2009 when Scott Baker starts in August for a net profit of $890. The Twins are 6-0 since July 27, 2010 as a favorite when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $600.

Astros at Mets – The Astros are 6-0 since July 28, 2010 when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $950. The Mets are 9-0 since June 08, 2010 at home after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $945.

Cardinals at Nationals – The Nationals are 0-11 since April 18, 2010 as a dog vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1100 when playing against. The Nationals are 0-9 since May 01, 2010 as a dog after a win in which they had 12+ hits for a net profit of $900 when playing against.

Phillies at Padres – The Phillies are 0-6 since April 20, 2010 on the road after a loss in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $690 when playing against. The Phillies are 0-6 since May 31, 2010 as a road dog and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $600 when playing against.

Athletics at Rangers – The Athletics are 0-6 since May 30, 2010 as a road dog when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Rangers are 6-0 since July 27, 2009 when Tommy Hunter starts as a favorite vs a team that lost their starters last two starts for a net profit of $600.

Red Sox at Rays – The Red Sox are 6-0 since April 26, 2010 after a loss in which their opponent left 18+ men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $615. The Rays are 6-0 since May 27, 2010 as a favorite after a 5+ run loss for a net profit of $600.

Cubs at Reds – The Cubs are 0-11 since May 28, 2010 after a win and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $1255 when playing against. The Reds are 7-0 since June 05, 2010 as a favorite when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $700.

Dodgers at Rockies – The Rockies are 6-0 since May 06, 2009 when Ubaldo Jimenez starts at home in the first game of a series for a net profit of $600. The Rockies are 0-4 since July 19, 2010 as a 140+ favorite and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $610 when playing against.

Yankees at White Sox – The Yankees are 6-0 since June 09, 2010 on the road after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $600. The White Sox are 5-0 since June 11, 2010 as a dog after a win and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $580.