Friday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Bronson Arroyo (11-6, 4.01 ERA), Cincinnati Reds
Besides one ugly, seven-run outing, this right-handed hurler has been money in the bank. The Reds are 6-3 in Arroyo’s last nine starts and the under is 7-2 over the same stretch.
The former Red Sox went 4-2 with a 2.81 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP (walks + hits per inning) in the month of July.
Francisco Liriano (10-7, 3.18 ERA), Minnesota Twins
Liriano’s last three starts have all been gems but each of them came against terrible clubs. The talented lefty is on a 21-inning shutout streak, holding the Mariners, Royals and Indians off the scoreboard.
"He kept our hitters off balance. When you have his stuff and you're on and you're hitting your spots, it's pretty tough to hit a guy like that," Seattle's Michael Saunders told reporters after Liriano struck out 11 Mariners and walked two.
The Twins are 4-0 in their ace’s last four appearances and they’ve covered the runline in each of those outings too.
Wandy Rodriguez (9-11, 4.49 ERA), Houston Astros
The ‘Stros have pretty solid 1-2 punch with Brett Myers and this 31-year-old southpaw. Rodriguez is 6-1 with a 1.91 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP in his last seven trips to the bump. He’s been an underdog in four of those starts, too.
"He's throwing the ball extremely well, commanding that fastball, which is setting up the curveball," Astros manager Brad Mills told the Associated Press after
Rodriguez gave up no runs and struck out nine in eight innings of work against the Brewers last week. "He was really hitting on that curveball today. When he's able to spot that fastball and his curveball's like it is, it's going to be tough."
Slumping
Tommy Hanson (8-8, 3.83 ERA), Atlanta Braves
Tommy Hanson isn’t getting a lot of help from his mates at the dish or in the field. The hard-throwing youngster is 0-3 in his last four starts despite owning a respectable 2.55 ERA during that period.
The Braves averaged just two runs per game over his cold streak and they made even worse by allowing four unearned runs with Hanson on the hill.
Friday MLB Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The first Friday card of August involves a handful of matchups that incorporate several teams in legitimate playoff contention. The Giants and Braves continue their four-game set at Turner Field, while the Cardinals try to make up ground in the NL Central in South Florida. We'll start in the Bronx with the league's two biggest rivals renewing acquaintances in an AL East showdown.
Red Sox at Yankees - 7:05 PM EST
These clubs meet for the first time since mid-May, as New York opens the weekend with a slim ½ game lead over Tampa Bay after the Rays fell to the Twins on Thursday afternoon. The Sox are still outsiders in the AL Wild Card race, sitting six games behind the Rays entering Friday's action.
With Alex Rodriguez's 600th homer now in the rear-view mirror, the Yankees can concentrate on another division title. New York sends out Javier Vazquez (9-7, 4.61 ERA), who hasn't lost a start since June 30 against Seattle. Vazquez wasn't particularly sharp in his last outing, a no-decision in a 5-4 win at Tampa Bay. The righty allowed eight hits and four earned runs in 6.1 innings, only his third-non quality start in his last 10 outings. Vazquez has significantly improved since a shaky first five starts (23 IP, 25 ER), giving up 33 ER in 83 innings of work in his last 14 trips to the mound.
Clay Buchholz (11-5, 2.59 ERA) has delivered a pair of solid starts his last two times out against the Angels and Tigers. Buchholz grabbed a victory as a road underdog at Los Angeles, then lost out on a victory against Detroit as the bullpen blew a 3-0 lead. The Sox won in the bottom of the ninth, the fifth straight home victory for Boston with Buchholz on the mound. The young right-hander has not fared well in his career against the Bombers, going 0-4 in four starts versus New York, including a 14-3 home setback in May.
The Yankees are 5-3 against the Red Sox this season, with four of those victories coming at Fenway Park. The 'over' has been the play, cashing in seven instances, including five games with the winning team plating at least nine runs. The Red Sox are just 1-8 the previous nine meetings at Yankee Stadium, ending an eight-game skid in a 7-6 victory on May 18 in the last matchup.
Cardinals at Marlins - 7:05 PM EST
St. Louis and Cincinnati continue to see-saw atop the NL Central race, as the second-place team is not guaranteed the Wild Card spot. The Cards head down to South Florida for just the third meeting all season with the Marlins, who are quickly spiraling out of control following a home series loss to the Phillies.
Cy Young candidate Adam Wainwright (15-6, 2.19 ERA) has allowed one earned run in seven of his last nine starts, coming off a 9-1 thumping of the lowly Pirates last Sunday. Wainwright's biggest problem has been pitching on the road, as the Cards' ace is 4-6 away from Busch Stadium, compared to an 11-0 mark at home. Wainwright has seen plenty of success against the Marlins, going 4-1 in his career, including a seven-inning effort in a 4-2 home win on May 20.
The Marlins send out Ricky Nolasco (12-7, 4.28 ERA), who has been Florida's hottest pitcher over the last five weeks. The Fish are 7-1 in his previous eight starts, with the lone loss coming to Stephen Strasburg and the Nats in a 4-0 shutout. Nolasco picked up a pair of wins over the top two teams in the NL on Florida's last road trip, beating the Giants and Padres as short 'dogs. The righty has struggled against the Redbirds in his career, compiling a 1-3 record, but only one of those starts have come at Sun Life Stadium.
Both meetings at Busch Stadium finished 'under' the total, as 10 of the previous 14 matchups have cashed the 'under.' St. Louis owns a 5-2 mark the last seven meetings in South Florida, including a 2-1 record in 2009.
Giants at Braves - 7:35 PM EST
San Francisco and Atlanta play the second of a four-game set at Turner Field, as both teams are in prime playoff positions. The Braves are still leading the NL East, but the Phillies are breathing down Atlanta's neck in the division. San Francisco, meanwhile, is atop the Wild Card race, while trying to overtake San Diego in the NL West.
Barry Zito (8-6, 3.38 ERA) ended a two-game skid with a masterful outing against the Dodgers, beating Los Angeles last Saturday. Zito has put together four straight quality starts, but the Giants are just 2-2 in this stretch thanks to six runs of support. The former Cy Young Award winner has been hit-or-miss on the road, as San Francisco is 5-5 in his 10 away outings this season. Zito is 2-0 in two starts against the Braves as a member of the Giants, limiting Atlanta to eight hits and one earned run in 14 innings of work.
The Braves counter with Tommy Hanson (8-8, 3.83 ERA), who is winless in four starts since the All-Star Break. Past a shaky outing against the Brewers, Hanson has given up four earned runs his last three starts, while Atlanta has plated just one run in his previous two outings. In his only career start against the Giants, Hanson shut down San Francisco in an 11-3 blowout last July, while striking out 11 in seven innings.
Atlanta owns a sterling 23-12 record in Game 2's of a series, but the Braves are just 1-4 the last five Game 2's at home. The Giants have been on fire on the highway, going 13-3 the previous 16 games away from the Bay.
vegasinsider.com
MLB RoundUp For 8/6
By Dan Bebe
National League
Reds (-115) @ Cubs with a total of N/A
It's almost mind-boggling, to me, that Gorzelanny has actually been pretty decent this year. I keep looking at his numbers, expecting to see something grotesque, and every time it says "winning record, sub-4 ERA." In any case, this is actually a match-up of two guys with solid career numbers against the other team, or at least recently. Gorzelanny has pitched well twice against the Reds already this year, so why not a third time, and Arroyo is 8-6 with a 2.91 ERA lifetime against the Cubs, including 6 strong innings in one start this year. I think too many people are going to jump on Cincinnati because it looks easy, but I'd be careful. this one could be a closer game than people think.
Rockies (-150) @ Pirates with a total of 8.5
This line is probably about where I'd expect. Hammel is struggling a tad over his last few starts, and actually is a little more comfortable at Coors, though so is the rest of his team. Duke has a very poor lifetime mark against the Rockies, but pitched well against them in Colorado last week. The Rockies have indeed had a little bit of a harder time against lefties (at least intermittently), and we know how this team can fall apart on the road. The Pirates, if they were any good, would be a decent dog. But, they're not, so...pass.
Cardinals (-150) @ Marlins with a total of 6.5
Well, if you're going on historical numbers alone, this one is a no-brainer. Wainwright is 3-1 with a 2.61 ERA against the Marlins over his career, and Nolasco is an ugly 0-2, 5.92 against the Cards. The player data supports those pitching marks, too, as Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols have both teed off on Nolasco. Wainwright had that bad start in New York, but bounced back with a solid one against the lowly Pirates. Nolasco, interestingly, has been a bit of a lucky charm for Florida - he's pitched pretty well, and the Marlins have won 7 of his last 8 starts. I wouldn't fade the man getting run support even with those nasty numbers against St Louis.
Mets @ Phillies (-125) with a total of 9
This is a tough one, because right off the bat I'm looking for a way to back Niese and the Mets, but there are also so many reasons not to. The Mets played awful defense in their finale in Atlanta, they so rarely win on the road, and Niese is coming off a terrible start against the D'backs. Blanton continues to give up plenty of hits, and didn't pitch well against these very Mets this season, already, but at the same time, that iteration of the Mets was actually hitting. This one isn't, so much. New York looks lost at the plate, and it seems like the pitching staff is starting to let that need for perfection wear on them just a tad. Can Blanton keep the ball in the yard?
Giants @ Braves (-150) with a total of 7.5
I suppose the initial thought is that the Giants are red hot, and have been for about a month. At the same time, the Braves are awfully tough to beat at home, and the weather here is going to be a bit of a shell-shock for San Francisco. The low total makes the pricey side seem a little out of range, especially since Zito is 3-1 with a 2.42 lifetime mark against the Braves, and the best Atlanta bat against Zito (Troy Glaus) is in a 2-month hitting slump. I'll be honest - I'm not too interested in the side, here. The total is low for a reason, and I think oddsmakers are going to feel fine with this one no matter how the game plays out.
Astros @ Brewers (-125) with a total of 8.5
Rematch game! Bush got shellacked by the suddenly-mashing Astros when these teams met last, and Wandy Rodriguez continued his second-half resurgence with another scoreless start. He's done that in 2 straight starts, spanning 15 innings, and while I'd love to back the team that lost the previous game, with the way that Wandy is throwing, I'm not sure you can go against him. That doesn't mean bet on Wandy, since it's tough to completely dominate a team two starts in a row, but the Over is potentially in play, and the Astros are certainly a live dog, if nothing else.
Padres (-125) @ D'backs with a total of 9.5
Daniel Hudson absolutely pitched his butt off in his D'backs debut, winning a cupcake 12-1 in New York. Now, we'll see how he performs in his follow-up. So many times we've seen a kid make the jump from the AL to the NL and pitch well, but now he's going to be making his home debut in a hitter-friendly park against a team that hasn't had any problems with the D'backs this year. Why? Probably the bullpen disparity, which is just disturbing, but at the same time, Garland is facing one of his old teams, and not one he generally enjoys. He has been, to his credit, much tougher against Arizona in San Diego than here in the Valley of the Sun (no surprise there), and the rather low line makes me think that oddsmakers (and early money) are giving some credit to Arizona. Perhaps there's the expectation that Hudson has another nice start against another fairly weak offensive team.
Nationals @ Dodgers (-250) with a total of 7
This one is way out of our price range, especially since the Dodgers have actually had some mild struggles with the Nats over the last 2 years -- those have mostly been on the road, but still...
American League
Angels @ Tigers (-120) with a total of 7.5
This has the makings of a good one, if Verlander can keep it together against a team that has actually given him a little trouble. This is also a strikingly cheap price on Verlander, especially considering the Angels were the same size dog a few days back to Jeremy Guthrie. I'm intimidated by this number, to be honest, and it makes me think that Weaver does a number on the soft-hitting Tigers. I know the Angels aren't exactly world-beaters with the way they've been playing, but the Tigers have been equally disappointing.
Red Sox @ Yankees (-150) with a total of 9
I'd be leaping at the chance to back Buchholz here, if he could ever get through a start against the hated Yankees without completely pissing himself. He's 0-2 with a 6.53 ERA against the Yankees, including getting roughed up earlier this year by the Bombers. Vazquez is an interesting story, since he had his turn in the rotation skipped a few times earlier this year when he would have normally faced th Sox. Too bad for Boston, they missed him when he was getting lit up, and now have to face him when he's a bit more consistent and when they are coming to New York off a miserable showing against the suddenly-hot Indians. I love betting on Boston-New York series, but not when one of the two teams is sinking like a stone.
White Sox (-175) @ Orioles with a total of 9
I cannot believe Bergesen is going to be a starter for this team for the entire season. That being said, he's somehow 1-1 with a 2.31 ERA against the White Sox, and that means I need to do some digging. But, that being said, all that means is that you should think twice before betting on the White Sox - it most certainly doesn't mean you should back the Orioles. I sure as heck don't have the gall to put my money behind Bergesen, and I wouldn't tell someone else to, either.
Twins (-170) @ Indians with a total of 8
The Twins are coming off a very tough series with the Rays, and without getting into the details much, this one is Indians or nothing. Gomez has been solid in his few starts in the Bigs, and he was highly touted, so perhaps we shouldn't be surprised. That being said, if there's one pitcher that has been delivering a spanking to the Indians this year, it's Liriano. He's pitched in three Minnesota wins over the Indians already this year. Now, I know, a handful of those of you that actually read these entire paragraphs are thinking, "He can't do it 4 times," but really, it's not that simple. Liriano has some of the beefiest numbers of any pitcher in baseball, in terms of Sabermetrics, and really, just sheer nastiness of his stuff. It's not at all a fluke when he crushes his opponent. There will be a time to back the Indians in this series, I'm confident, but I'm not sure this is the right one.
Rays (-120) @ Blue Jays with a total of 8
This one has a nice low line to work with, but I believe the competing factors might cancel each other out and leave us with no solid play. Garza has strong career numbers against the Jays, at 6-5 with a 2.35 ERA, but his two starts against Toronto this year have resulted in 8 runs in just a shade over 11 innings, not too good. Cecil is 3-1 with a 4.07 ERA against the Rays, and he, too, has a bit of a mixed bag, dominating Tampa on the road 2 months back, and getting hit pretty hard in Tampa a couple months before that. The Jays are hitting better than Tampa right now, or at least I would argue that, based on this last series. The Rays are hugely reliant on the longball, maybe even more than the Jays lately, and if Cecil can keep the ball down and away, Tampa might be in for a longer night than folks anticipate.
Rangers (-172) @ Athletics with a total of 6.5
This one is not going to happen. Lee is simply too good in a pitchers' park, and Braden, despite a decent career ERA against the Rangers, is not a strong enough proposition to take the dog price.
Royals (-170) @ Mariners with a total of 7.5
This might be the most inflated line I've seen all year for any team not named the Yankees. I mean, good lord! No one on the Royals should be this size favorite at home, let alone on the road. I know Greinke is 4-0 with a 1.64 ERA lifetime against the Mariners, but a -170 road favorite? Let's see. Lucas French is like a poor man's Jamie Moyer, and 20 years younger, and not any good, so there's certainly the possibility that the Royals hammer out 6-8 hits in 4 innings of French and just pound the Mariners, but I'm not sure you can play the Royals at this price. The run line is on the table, if only because it cheapens things, but good grief.
Diamond Trends - Friday
By Vince Akins
Rangers at Athletics – The Rangers are 10-0 since May 01, 2010 after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $1170. The Athletics are 0-8 since May 07, 2010 at home after a win and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $857 when playing against.
Rays at Blue Jays – The Rays are 8-0 since June 06, 2010 as a favorite after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $800. The Blue Jays are 7-0 since August 31, 2009 when Brett Cecil starts as a dog in the first game of a series for a net profit of $960. The Blue Jays are 0-6 since May 20, 2010 within 20 cents of pickem vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $610 when playing against.
Giants at Braves – The Giants are 5-0 since June 07, 2010 as a dog vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $665. The Braves are 0-8 since May 15, 2010 as a favorite when they are off a win in which they scored in at most two separate innings and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1175 when playing against.
Astros at Brewers – The Astros are 0-9 since August 14, 2009 when Wandy Rodriguez starts on the road after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $935 when playing against. The Astros are 6-0 since June 25, 2010 on the road and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $1010.
Reds at Cubs – The Cubs are 0-9 since May 28, 2010 after a win and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $1055 when playing against.
Padres at Diamondbacks – The Padres are 0-5 since April 25, 2010 within 20 cents of pickem after a 5+ run win for a net profit of $505 when playing against. The Diamondbacks are 0-6 since July 03, 2010 at home vs a divisional foe that is ahead of them in the divisional standings for a net profit of $610 when playing against.
Nationals at Dodgers – The Nationals are 0-6 since May 15, 2010 as a 140+ dog after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Dodgers are 0-5 since June 10, 2009 when Clayton Kershaw starts as a home 200+ favorite vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $1020 when playing against.
Twins at Indians – The Twins are 7-0 since July 17, 2010 after a win in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $745. The Twins are 6-0 since April 15, 2010 when Francisco Liriano starts as a favorite after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $600.
Royals at Mariners – The Mariners are 0-8 since May 06, 2010 as a 140+ dog after a 5+ run loss for a net profit of $800 when playing against.
Cardinals at Marlins – The Cardinals are 0-7 since October 08, 2009 when Adam Wainwright starts on the road after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs at home for a net profit of $835 when playing against. The Marlins are 4-0 since June 10, 2010 as a dog after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits for a net profit of $580.
White Sox at Orioles – The White Sox are 9-0 since June 11, 2010 after a win and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $980. The Orioles are 0-7 since April 12, 2010 as a 140+ dog when they lost by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $700 when playing against.
Mets at Phillies – The Mets are 8-0 since April 17, 2010 on the road within 20 cents of pickem when they are off a loss in which they held the lead for a net profit of $830. The Phillies are 9-0 since May 05, 2010 at home after a one run win for a net profit of $910.
Rockies at Pirates – The Rockies are 6-0 since April 22, 2010 on the road after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent as a favorite for a net profit of $660. The Pirates are 5-0 since June 19, 2010 at home when they blew a lead in their starter's last start and lost for a net profit of $585.
Angels at Tigers – The Tigers are 8-0 since September 14, 2009 when Justin Verlander starts at home after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $820.
Red Sox at Yankees – The Red Sox are 6-0 since July 17, 2009 when Clay Buchholz starts on the road in the first game of a series for a net profit of $645. The Red Sox are 5-0 since May 23, 2010 on the road after a win in which their starter pitched at least 8 innings for a net profit of $600. The Yankees are 6-0 since May 21, 2010 when Javier Vazquez starts as a 140+ favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $600.