Friday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Matt Cain (San Francisco Giants)
The right-hander just keeps pitching better as the race for the NL Wild Card tightens.
Cain (13-4, 2.51 ERA) has allowed just 11 runs over the past 35 1-3 innings and hasn’t lost since early August. His ERA is among the lowest in the league and he leads the senior circuit with four complete games. The only flaw so far for Cain is his control. He is sometimes erratic and is 12th in the NL with 65 walks.
But getting to first base against Cain, no matter what way, is no easy task.
"He's bull strong," Giants manager Bruce Bochy told the Associated Press. "He's had some tough luck, but he's more of a pitcher now and he's keeping his composure out there."
Jair Jurrjens (Atlanta Braves)
The 23 year old has pitched as well as any player in the majors over his past five starts. But with the pathetic run support he receives, you’d never know it.
Jurrjens (10-10, 2.93 ERA) has strung together five straight quality starts, lasting at least seven innings four times during that span. In his most recent outing, the Reds managed just three runs on three hits over seven innings against the hurler.
The right-hander has won only once since July 22, but he keeps his team in every game and should give the Braves a chance again on Friday.
"I don't know what to say anymore,” he told the Associated Press. “It's getting frustrating, considering how important these games are."
Slumping
Kevin Millwood (Texas Rangers)
If the Rangers have any chance of catching Boston for the AL Wild Card, Millwood (10-9, 3.77 ERA) has to be better.
The 34 year old has allowed at least five earned runs in three of his past four starts and hasn’t lasted past the sixth inning since July 1. In his past four starts overall, Millwood has yielded 17 earned runs on 27 hits in just 22 1-3 innings.
He also has walked a staggering 14 batters over that span.
"I just pitched bad. I don't know what to say," Millwood told the Associated Press. "I thought pitch selection was bad, location was bad."
Brian Tallet (Toronto Blue Jays)
The 31 year old should have stayed in the bullpen.
Tallet (6-9, 5.31 ERA) has been touched in each of his two recent starts, giving up a whopping nine earned runs in just 10 innings. In his most recent outing against the Yankees, he allowed five earned runs on eight hits over just five innings. The key for Tallet is his command. The former LSU standout is fourth in the AL with a staggering 67 walks.
L.A. Dodgers (83-58) at San Francisco (76-64)
Dodgers’ right-hander Hiroki Kuroda (5-6, 4.15 ERA) takes the ball opposite the Giants’ Matt Cain (13-4, 2.51) in the opener of a critical National League West series at AT&T Park in San Francisco.
Los Angeles leads the division by two games over the Rockies and by 6½ over San Francisco. The Giants come into this one having lost three of four overall while Los Angeles has split its last 10 games, but dropped a 4-3 decision in Arizona on Wednesday.
The Dodgers are still riding streaks of 8-3 against Cain, 38-18 against the N.L. West, 36-15 following a loss and 4-1 on the highway. Meanwhile, San Francisco has lost five straight after an off-day, but it is on positive runs of 44-19 as a home favorite, 6-1 in series openers, 20-6 at home against winning road teams and 7-3 at home overall.
Kuroda has a 2.76 ERA in his last three starts, one of which includes an Aug. 10 outing in San Francisco when he gave up just one run in 6 1/3 innings of a 4-2 Los Angeles win. In his five career starts against the Giants, three of which came in northern California, Kuroda has allowed more than three runs just once. The Dodgers are just 3-8 when Kuroda starts as a road ‘dog, and just 2-5 when he’s on the road against a winning team.
Cain is a stellar 6-2 at home this season with a 2.53 ERA, and overall the Giants have won seven of his last 10 outings, including each of his last three. In his most recent start Saturday, Cain gave up two runs on four hits in seven innings in Milwaukee as the Giants got a 3-2 victory. The last time he saw the Dodgers was April 15 when he gave up two runs on seven hits in six innings, but the Giants fell 5-4 on the road. San Francisco is just 4-9 in Cain’s last 13 starts on Fridays, but otherwise behind Cain the Giants are on runs of 16-5 when he’s a home chalk, 17-4 overall and 6-0 against the N.L. West.
Los Angeles is on a plethora of “under” runs, including 6-1 in Kuroda’s last seven starts, 11-1 when he’s an underdog, 6-1 when he faces N.L. West teams and 7-2 when he pitches on the road. As a team, the Dodgers are on “under” streaks of 21-6-3 overall, 16-5-1 on the road, 13-3-2 against the N.L. West and 7-0-1 against teams with a winning record.
It’s been all “unders” for the Giants with Cain on the hill as well, including 11-4 in his last 15 starts overall, 6-2 when he’s a favorite and 8-1 when he gets five days off. As a team, San Francisco has stayed below the total in seven of eight overall, 20 of its last 30 Friday games, 11 of 16 as a home favorite and four straight against right-handers.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Tampa Bay (72-68) at Boston (81-58)
The Rays, in the midst of season-high eight-game losing streak, send right-hander James Shields (9-10, 4.02 ERA) to the mound at Fenway Park in Boston opposite Red Sox lefty Jon Lester (12-7, 3.44).
Tampa Bay has fallen 9½ games behind the Red Sox in the race for the A.L. wild-card, virtually assuring the defending A.L. pennant-holders won’t be in line to repeat come the postseason. It was the Red Sox who started the Rays on their eight-game slide with a 6-3 win in Tampa on Sept. 3, and Boston has dominated the Rays at Fenway, winning 50 of the last 66 meetings.
The Red Sox come in riding several positive streaks, including 11-5 overall, 35-17 as a favorite, 46-19 at home, 10-3 against right-handers and 7-1 against A.L. East teams. On the opposite end, the Rays haven’t had much luck lately, including 0-5 against A.L. East teams, 5-16 against teams with a winning record and 0-6 as an underdog.
Shields was beaten up on Saturday, allowing six runs on eight hits in 6 1/3 innings of an 8-6 home loss to the Tigers. In his last three outings, Shields has allowed 13 runs in 20 innings. In his two starts at Fenway this season, he’s given up a combined 10 runs on 19 hits over 11 1/3 innings as the Red Sox beat him 5-3 on April 7 and 7-3 on May 8. Tampa Bay has lost six of his last eight outings against Boston. The Rays are on slides of 6-20 when Shields is a road ‘dog and 8-18 when he starts on the road against a winning team.
Lester has been strong lately, going 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA, and that includes seven innings of shutout ball in Chicago on Sunday as the Red Sox scored a 6-1 win. Boston has won each of his last five starts and he hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a contest since July 30, a span of eight starts. The Red Sox have lost three of his four starts against Tampa this season, but he’s performed well in the last two, allowing three runs in 12 innings of action. Boston is on streaks of 44-14 when Lester is a favorite, 37-16 in his last 53 overall and 17-5 when he starts at home against a winning team.
With Shields on the bump, the Rays have topped the total in four straight, but the “under” is on runs of 13-3 when he’s a ‘dog and 9-4-1 when he faces A.L. East foes. As a team, Tampa is on “under” runs of 7-2 on the road, 12-4 as a ‘dog, 5-2 in series openers and 4-1 overall. With Lester pitching, the Red Sox are on “under” streaks of 14-6-1 against winning teams10-3-3 in series openers and 5-2-1 at home. However, as a team, Boston has topped the total in 15 of 20 at home, 19 of 26 as a favorite, 11 of 12 series openers and four of five against A.L. East rivals.
Finally, in this series the “over” is 4-0-1 when Shields faces the Sox and 3-0-1 in the last four overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
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Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
Friday, September 11
Tampa Bay at Boston (7:10 p.m. EDT). The skidding Rays send James Shields to the mound against Jon Lester in the opener of a weekend series against the wild card-leading Red Sox at Fenway Park. Tampa Bay has lost eight straight to slip to the edge of the playoff race.
STARS
Thursday
-John Lackey, Angels, pitched a five-hitter for his first complete game of the season, helping Los Angeles to a 3-0 win over Seattle.
-Garrett Atkins, Rockies, hit a two-run homer and Colorado beat Cincinnati 5-1 for its seventh consecutive win.
-Adam Dunn, Nationals, hit his 36th homer to lead Washington to an 8-7 win over Philadelphia.
-Garret Anderson, Braves, drove in three runs in Atlanta's 9-7 victory at Houston.
-Nick Johnson, Marlins, drove in four runs and Florida routed the New York Mets 13-4.
-Alex Gordon and Alberto Callaspo, Royals, homered to power Kansas City to a 7-4 victory against Detroit.
-Lance Berkman, Astros, hit a three-run homer in Houston's 9-7 loss to Atlanta.
ROLLING ROCKIES
Surging Colorado beat Cincinnati 5-1 on Thursday for its seventh consecutive win. The NL wild card leaders increased their cushion to 4 1/2 games over idle San Francisco and crept within two games of first-place Los Angeles in the NL West. The Dodgers also had the day off. By sweeping four games from the Reds, the Rockies wrapped up a 9-1 homestand - one of their best in franchise history.
QUITE THE INTRODUCTION
Ian Desmond homered and drove in four runs in his major league debut, leading Washington to an 8-7 victory over Philadelphia. Desmond, a 24-year-old shortstop who was recalled from Triple-A Syracuse on Tuesday, doubled in a run in the fourth and his three-run homer keyed a five-run fifth. He narrowly missed a home run in his first at-bat, flying out to deep center field.
SURPRISE, SURPRISE
Alex Gordon and Alberto Callaspo homered, leading last-place Kansas City past Detroit 7-4 for a three-game sweep of the AL Central leaders. It was the first three-game sweep of an American League team at home this season for the Royals. They've won four straight overall for the first time since June 12-16.
WORTH NOTING
Ichiro Suzuki went 0 for 4 in Seattle's 3-0 loss to the Los Angeles Angels and needs four hits to reach the 200 mark for the ninth consecutive season, which would break the major league mark he shares with Willie Keeler. ... Minnesota has not won consecutive games since a three-game winning streak from Aug. 30-Sept. 1.
SPEAKING
"We've been getting outplayed by second division teams. We don't put nobody away.'' - Phillies manager Charlie Manuel after Philadelphia's 8-7 loss to the Washington.
Friday's Pitching Report
By: Freddy Willis
A look at the hot and cold pitchers going today. The information you need to know whether it is for fantasy baseball or wagering contests. My POD's continue to roll with a 21-4 record in the last 25 plays! Tonight we have some interesting pitching match ups as we have a total of six starters that fall into my "hot starters" criteria of an ERA less than 3.00 in their last 5 starts. On the cold front their are only two pitchers with an ERA over 6.00 in their last 5 starts and they face off against each other. Make sure you read below so you know what to do here on Friday for your sports betting advice.
Probable Hot Starting Pitchers:
Zach Greinke (Royals)
Greinke has been solid all season long with a 2.12 ERA in the first half and a 2.41 ERA second half of the season for a 2.22 ERA on the season with a 13-8 record. Unfortunately for Greinke I do not believe he takes home the Cy Young because of the team he plays on. However, you can still bank some cash by backing Greinke in value spots. Today not being one in my opinion although the Indians have struggled as of late vs. RHP, the Royals are 3-13 following a quality start in Greinkes last appearance.
Greinke faces off against Masterson who has pitched well at home with a 3.17 ERA so this won't be a walk in the park. Greinke has 4 starts against the Indians so you have to also figure they got to hit him sooner or later. Collectively the Indians have a .279 average vs. Greinke, but Greinke has the 2-0 record with a 2.39 ERA in 26.1 innings pitched this year.
I would not back any Royals pitcher though and that may change as I look deeper into this match up, but for now the offense just is not there to feel good about any type of sports pick on the Royals.
Notables - Last 5 Starts!
* Cole Hamels (1-2, 1.15 WHIP, 2.69 ERA) * Jarr Jurjens (1-2, 1.15 WHIP, 2.60 ERA) * Matt Cain (1-0, 1.10 WHIP, 2.80 ERA) * John Lester (3-0, 1.04 WHIP, 2.41 ERA) * Gavin Floyd (2-2, 1.08 WHIP, 2.88 ERA)
Most likely to sustain and win:
Cole Hamels
Probable Cold Starting Pitchers:
Bud Norris (Astros) & Charlie Morton (Pirates)
Bud Norris will face off against another struggling pitcher in Charlie Morton, so who has the edge? In my opinion it's got to be the guy pitching on his own rubber and I'll explain in a moment, but first lets throw out the stats for both of these guys over their last 5 starts.
Norris in his last 5 starts has the worst stats with a 2-3 record in 22.2 IP with a 1.99 WHIP and 9.13 ERA, while Morton has a 1-3 record in 23.1 IP, with a 2.14 WHIP, and 8.10 ERA. I have to back the team with the better offense here (Astros) and the pitcher toeing his own rubber in Norris. Morton has a lot of talent but he has yet to put it all together particularly on the road where he has one of the largest ERA discrepancies from home to away with a 4.93 ERA difference. He's got a 3.06 ERA at home with a 7.99 ERA at home where he will go tonight.