Friday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Randy Wolf, Milwaukee Brewers (11-11, 4.53 ERA)
The hard-throwing South Paw has entrenched himself as the Brew Crew’s No. 2 start by becoming one of the more reliable pitchers in the National League.
He won’t go eight innings and he won’t strike out 14 batters, but he won’t implode and put his side in a huge hole before the squad even makes its way through the order. Since Aug. 1 – a span of eight starts – Wolf has a 3.14 ERA and a 35:17 strike-to-walkout ratio.
In his past two outings, Wolf has gone 14.2 innings and yielded just three earned runs, including picking up a victory against the two-time defending National League champion Philadelphia Phillies.
Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners (11-11, 2.39 ERA)
The 24-year-old right-handed fireballer continues to quietly put together one of the strongest seasons of any pitcher in the Majors.
Hernandez allowed four earned runs over 6.1 innings in his most recent outing against the Angels, but his defense did him no favors by committing three errors. Prior to that, he hadn’t allowed an earned run over his previous 33.1 innings. Over his past seven starts, he has given up only five earned runs in 51.1 innings.
Hernandez leads the American League in ERA and innings pitched (225.2) and is second in strikeouts (214).
"I mean, for him to put up as many zeros as he has, his [won-lost] record shouldn't reflect [badly on] what he's done," Mariners second baseman Chone Figgins told the Associated Press. "The Cy Young is basically for the best pitcher. But if he doesn't get runs, that's not his fault. If his other numbers are up there than he deserves it and he should get it. But if I know him, he's going to continue to go out there and pitch to win."
Slumping
Brett Cecil, Toronto Blue Jays (12-7, 4.12 ERA)
The young left-hander is a building block for the team’s foundation for the future, but he may have show a crack in his most recent outing.
Cecil last only two innings of a 9-8 loss to Tampa Bay. He allowed seven earned runs on eight hits, including a home run and just three strikeouts against two walks. Overall in his past six outings, he has allowed at least five hits each time and fewer than seven only once.
Between Triple-A Las Vegas and Toronto this season, Cecil has thrown 166 innings, already nearly 30 more than last year.
Kyle Lohse, St. Louis Cardinals (3-7, 6.85 ERA)
The right-hander has yet to notch a quality start since coming off the disabled list on August 15. Even worse, he hasn’t lasted six innings since a 6-2 win over
Washington on May 17.
The past three times he has toed the rubber he has allowed 14 earned runs over just 15.1 innings, including 27 hits and three walks. Overall, the team is 2-3 in his past five starts and has won just four of his past 10 outings this year.
MLB RoundUp for 9/17
By Dan Bebe
National League
D'backs (-155) @ Pirates with a total of 8
The D'backs are playing solid baseball, and in the right spots, this is a great team to back. As a -155 road favorite is not one of those spots. I wouldn't pay over -135 for this team in any venue, even with them playing as well as they are, but the Pirates can surprise a few teams, at home, and the zero-crowd atmosphere can make for some strange, strange baseball games.
Nationals @ Phillies (-290) with a total of 8
Just toss a quarter unit on the dog RL and thank me later.
Braves (-155) @ Mets with a total of 7
I want to try to find a way to back someone in this game, but the more I look at it, the less I want to bet on it. Hanson is 2-1 with an 0.73 ERA against the Mets lifetime, but his starts in New York have been short. He was amazing against them, at home, but life is rarely that simple. Niese, meanwhile, got spanked by the Braves in Atlanta the last time he faced them, and there's sort of a pitching and hitting revenge double-angle for the Mets tonight. Dog, or nothing.
Cubs @ Marlins (-115) with a total of 8
This is another tough one, in my opinion. The Cubs have won 3 straight and the Marlins have lost 3 straight, and with baseball, riding streaks can be profitable. At the same time, the Cubs come off that sweep of the Cardinals, so they're in position for a tiny letdown, and the Marlins got waxed here at home by the Phillies. I expect them to play better, and I expect the Cubs to play a tad worse, making this coin-flip line pretty accurate. Slight lean to the dog, just because Chicago seems to be playing better now with no pressure.
Reds (-115) @ Astros with a total of 7.5
Johnny Cueto has faced the Astros just once this year, and went 8 shutout innings in a win. He's just 1-4 with a 4.34 lifetime ERA against Houston, though, and the Reds are in a little bit of a hitting slump right now, coming off a rather ugly home series with the D'backs. Houston continues to find ways to win series, and they took 2 of 3 from Milwaukee earlier this week. Wandy Rodriguez is really starting to get a ton of respect, and the fact that this line is as low as it is is a strong indicator of that. He got worked by the Reds early in the year, but came back and threw 7 innings of 1-hit ball in late July against them, so we know he can do it. If the Astros score 4, I think they win.
Padres (-166) @ Cardinals with a total of 7.5
There is some serious value on the home team, though this line might be this high for a reason. We'll wait and see how the public interprets the number, but considering Latos's streak of 15 straight starts of 2 runs or less was snapped by the Giants a few days back, this is prime letdown-City for a young fireballer like Latos. Lohse, meanwhile, is significantly better than his numbers indicate, and the Cards got a nice snide-snapping win last night.
Rockies (-135) @ Dodgers with a total of 6.5
Just 6.5? Wow, the Dodgers anemic offense and Jimenez's name can really drive a line down, can't they? I'm even seeing movement to 6. If that's the case, then I'm a little scared to take the Over, which I rather liked when I first looked at this. Jimenez is 5-5 with a 5.23 ERA against the Dodgers lifetime, and Kuroda is 0-3 with a 6.55 ERA against Colorado. He's been worse at Coors, not surprisingly, but not great at any venue. How can this game stay Under? Simple, the Dodgers score 2, and the Rockies score 2, and someone wins late.
Brewers @ Giants (-155) with a total of 7.5
This line, to me, is much, much lower than what I expected, and I honestly can't figure out why. Yes, the Giants are coming off a somewhat emotional series with the Dodgers, but it's not the same rivalry, and the Giants are staying home in front of mostly packed houses. Wolf, to his credit, has always been good against the Giants, but the Brewers have tons of issues, and the Giants' bullpen edge is going to be enormous. Bumgarner, by the way, hasn't allowed more than 1 earned run in any of his last 3 starts, and went 8 shutout against the Brewers earlier this year (beating Wolf).
American League
Yankees (-165) @ Orioles with a total of 9.5
Millwood is a tough cat to back, but I don't know how you can't give a look to the red-hot Orioles. Not only is Baltimore playing tremendous ball, but the Yankees are coming off a wildly emotional series down in Tampa. This is a bit of a lull game for New York, especially with the off-day mixed in there, and if Millwood can improve upon the 6 runs he seems to give up every time he faces the Yankees, there's a nice pot o' gold for the O's. Of course, he's Millwood.
Angels @ Rays (-145) with a total of 8.5
This line is super cheap to get the Rays, but why? The Angels were a slight dog to Fausto Carmona last night with Ervin Santana on the hill. Haren isn't worth that much more than Santana, in my eyes, and the Rays are way better than the Indians. This line is fishy-low to me. The Rays, like the Yanks, are coming off that same emotional series. I like the Angels to catch Tampa napping in the opener, then get crushed in the next few.
Blue Jays @ Red Sox (-125) with a total of 9.5
This line also seems pretty low, considering the Jays have been getting beat up the last week, and the Red Sox are on a quiet little 4-game win streak. The Red Sox, though, were in Oakland and Seattle, then had a day off, and that generally leads to a game played with a certain unique level of sluggishness. I would consider the Under, or the Jays, mostly because of scheduling.
Indians @ Royals (-110) with a total of 8.5
Kansas City has actually been heating up at the plate a little, beating Oakland in the 2 final games of their series, and putting up some nice offensive numbers in the process. The Indians haven't been hitting at all, but managed to sneak out 2 of 3 from the Angels, at home. Kyle Davies has been pitching well this month, and I like that in combination with the Royals potentially scoring a few. With the way the Indians are hitting, 4 runs is almost certainly enough, and I think Kansas City can scratch across a few against Carrasco and the tired Cleveland pen.
Tigers @ White Sox (-126) with a total of 8
I bet a lot of folks are going to jump on the Tigers because the White Sox season seemingly came to an end with last night's loss, and honestly, I'm going to have a hard time not doing it, myself. However, that strange balance between the pressure of a pennant race and the ease of playing a game with zero meaning can create all kinds of havoc. After Boston got slammed by the Rays, they came back and hit the crap out of the ball. Most recently, the Cardinals just got swept by the Cubs, then came back and beat the Padres. I'd be very careful before playing this game, either way.
Athletics @ Twins (-118) with a total of 8
The Twins are just rolling. Simple as that. Every time we think they're due for a loss or some sort of letdown game, they just win that one, too. I'd love to write how coming home from the sweep in Chicago, they're going to relax, but they want home field in the playoffs, and it's awfully close to within their grasp. The Twins spanked the A's the last time these teams met, and while Blackburn is 0-3 with a 7.24 ERA against Oakland lifetime, he's been pitching better, and the A's have been slumping. I'd take a look at the Under in a "letdown" game before a side, but I also think the squares might get this one right.
Rangers @ Mariners (-110) with a total of 6
King Felix has trouble with very few teams, but the Rangers have given him a hard time to the tune of an 8-12 lifetime record. This is a pretty strong opening number for the Mariners, though, and while Wilson is 6-2 lifetime against the Mariners, his ERA against them is 5.08. You guys know how I feel about backing Seattle though. Watching those games is like going to the dentist.