Friday's Best Mound Matchup
By Covers.com
John Lackey (Los Angeles Angels) vs. C.C. Sabathia (New York Yankees)
John Lackey (11-8, 3.83 ERA)
Lackey became a household name when in 2002 he became only the second rookie ever to start and win Game 7 of the World Series. Since then he has continued to making his living anchoring the Angles' pitching staff in the postseason.
A perennial innings eater, it was no surprise that Lackey was handed the ball in the first game of the Division Series against the Boston Red Sox. He responded by tossing 7 1-3 innings of shutout ball against one on the league's most potent lineups. For his career, he boasts a 3.02 ERA in 12 postseason appearances, including 10 starts.
In his only start against the Yankees this season, Lackey tossed seven innings of two-run ball and picked up the victory in a 5-4 final at Angels Stadium. Equally effective on the road, Lackey made 14 starts, posting a 3.80 ERA and a 5-3 record.
C.C. Sabathia (19-8, 3.37 ERA)
It took Sabathia until mid May to win his second game as a Yankee. However, it wasn't his start that the Angels will be focused on, it is his finish. The 6-foot-7, 290-pound lefty won nine of his last twelve starts to narrowly miss posting his first 20-win season.
His dominance continued into the postseason where held the Twins to one run over 6 2-3 innings while striking out eight in New York's 7-2 rout of Minnesota.
Sabathia only made one start against the Halos this season and it wasn't pretty. He allowed five runs in 6 2-3 innings en route to an 8-4 loss at the new Yankee Stadium. However, it was during his early season struggles and one of only two losses he would suffer there all season.
The Yanks' prized offseason acquisition was simply stellar on home turf, finishing 7-2 with a 3.17 ERA, not including his masterful performance over Minnesota in the first-round of the playoffs.
NLCS
Philadelphia (4-1) at L.A. Dodgers (3-1)
Pedro Martinez (5-1, 3.63 ERA) will attempt to give the Phillies a commanding 2-0 lead in their best-of-7 National League Championship Series at Dodger Stadium when he makes his first postseason start since 2004, while the Dodgers are set to hand the ball to red-hot Vicente Padilla (12-6, 4.46).
Philadelphia got three-run home runs from Carlos Ruiz and Raul Ibanez in Game 1 on Thursday, and closer Brad Lidge got through a shaky ninth inning to save an 8-6 victory, the team’s third in a row in this postseason. The Phillies are 7-1 in their last eight playoff contests dating to last year’s run to the World Series title, and they’re on additional surges of 6-1 in road playoff games, 10-2 as an underdog, 11-2 against the N.L. West, 4-1 against right-handed starters and 11-4 on the road against teams with a winning overall record.
Los Angeles saw its five-game winning streak (4-0 at home) halted with the Game 1 defeat. The Dodgers, who had the best record in the National League this season, have four straight against right-handed starters and seven of eight at home against righties. However, they’ve lost five of their last six on Friday.
The Phillies ousted Los Angeles in five games in last year’s NLCS and are now 5-1 versus the Dodgers in the playoffs. Going back to last August, Philadelphia has won 12 of 17 against L.A. (5-3 at Dodger Stadium). In addition to last year, the Phillies knocked the Dodgers out of the playoffs in 1983 after getting eliminated by Los Angeles in the 1977 and 1978 NLCS.
Martinez was slated to start Game 3 of the National League Division Series at Colorado on Saturday, but when that contest was postponed due to weather, Philadelphia manager Charlie Manuel pulled Martinez back. That means the veteran right-hander has been on the mound just once since Sept. 19, and that was on Sept. 30 when he allowed three runs on six hits in four innings, helping the Phillies to a 10-3 home victory over Houston.
Martinez didn’t sign with the Phillies until early July and didn’t make his first start for the team until Aug. 12. The former Cy Young winner was especially strong in September, going 3-1 with a 3.14 ERA in five starts, including the no-decision against the Astros. Philadelphia went 8-1 in Martinez’s nine trips to the mound, including 3-1 on the road, where the 37-year-old won three of those four games despite a 5.66 ERA.
Martinez, who made his big-league debut with Los Angeles in 1992, is 3-5 with a 4.02 ERA in nine career starts against his former team, and he’s 7-7 with a 2.93 ERA in 38 career appearances (seven starts) at Dodger Stadium. He last faced L.A. on June 6, 2006, while with the Mets, allowing seven runs (six earned) in five innings of an 8-5 road loss. Martinez is 6-2 with a 3.40 ERA in 13 lifetime playoff appearances (11 starts), all with Boston from 1998-2004.
Padilla was brilliant in the Dodgers’ series-clinching 5-1 victory at St. Louis on Saturday, scattering four hits and one walk while striking out four in seven scoreless innings. Padilla, who beat the Rockies 5-3 in the regular-season finale Oct. 4, has allowed one run on eight hits with a 14-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 12 innings in his last two starts. Since being acquired from the Rangers in August, Padilla is 5-0 with a 2.72 ERA in nine games (eight starts), with the Dodgers going 7-1 in those eight starts.
Including the Oct. 4 win over Colorado, Padilla is 1-0 with a 3.52 ERA in three starts at Dodger Stadium covering 15 1/3 innings. The right-hander, who pitched for the Phillies from 2000-2005, has just one career start against his former team, and he got rocked, allowing seven runs on seven hits (two home runs) over six innings of an 8-6 interleague home loss with Texas in June 2008.
As a team, the Phillies carry nothing but “over” streaks, including 13-3-2 overall, 13-2 on the road, 6-0 against right-handed starters and 5-1 following a victory, but the under is 15-5-2 in its last 22 on Friday. For the Dodgers, the over is on runs of 6-2-1 at home, 4-0-1 against the N.L. East, 9-3-1 versus winning teams, 7-3-1 against right-handed starters and 4-1-1 with Padilla on the mound.
Over the last two postseasons, the over is 4-2 in this rivalry (3-1 at Dodger Stadium).
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and OVER
ALCS
L.A. Angels (3-0) at N.Y. Yankees (3-0)
After sweeping through their respective first-round playoff series, the Angels and Yankees are set open their best-of-7 American League Championship Series at new Yankee Stadium. New York will go with ace CC Sabathia (20-8, 3.31 ERA) in Game 1, while Los Angeles counters with veteran John Lackey (12-8, 3.68) in what is expected to be cold and wet conditions.
The Angels bounced longtime playoff nemesis Boston in three games in the first round, cruising 5-0 and 4-1 at home before rallying from a 5-2, eighth-inning deficit in Game 3 on Sunday for a series-clinching 7-6 victory. It’s the first time since beating the Yankees in 2005 that Los Angeles has advanced past the opening round in the postseason. The Angels are making their sixth appearance in the ALCS, having lost four of the first five.
Going back to the end of the regular season, the Halos have won six in a row and 10 of 11, and they’ve won five straight road games. They’re on additional tears of 10-3 after an off day, 5-2 against the A.L. East, 36-15 against left-handed starters, 5-1 in the opening game of a series, 19-7 as an underdog, 49-21 after a victory and 4-1 in the playoffs. However, they’ve dropped 11 of their last 14 as a playoff underdog.
New York had little trouble with the Twins last week, winning all three games by scores of 7-3, 4-3 and 4-1 to finally advance to the ALCS after getting bounced in the first round in 2005, 2006 and 2007. Joe Girardi’s club, which had a 13-year streak of playoff appearances snapped last season, is on impressive runs of 44-17 overall, 40-12 at home (all as a favorite), 49-18 after a victory, 44-16 against right-handed starters, 20-8 on Friday, 23-11 in series openers and 5-2 in home playoff games. However, the last time the Yankees were in the ALCS, they blew a 3-0 series lead to the Red Sox in 2004, and they haven’t advanced to the World Series since 2003.
These teams have met just twice in postseason play, both in the best-of-5 divisional round, and the Angels won both times in 2002 and 2005. This year, the teams split their 10 meetings, with New York going 3-1 at home. In fact, the host is 14-4 in the last 18 clashes (7-3 this season) going back to the beginning of last August.
Lackey was outstanding in Game 1 against Boston nine days ago, scattering four hits and a walk over 7 1/3 shutout innings en route to a 5-0 victory. Not including a meaningless tune-up start against Texas in his regular-season finale on Oct. 1, Lackey has allowed two earned runs or fewer and pitched at least seven innings in five of his last seven outings, with the Angels going 5-2. However, Los Angeles is just 1-4 in Lackey’s last five starts as an underdog (0-4 as a road underdog).
Lackey, who missed the first six weeks of the season while recovering from a shoulder injury, went 5-3 with a 3.80 ERA in 14 road starts this season. He faced New York once this season, allowing two runs on six hits in seven innings of a 5-4 home win, making the Angels 5-2 in his last seven starts versus the Yankees. For his career, Lackey is 5-7 with a 4.66 ERA in 16 regular-season starts against the Bronx Bombers (3-3, 3.76 ERA in eight outings at old Yankee Stadium). He’s also made three playoff appearances against New York (two starts) failing to get a decision while posting a 1.88 ERA.
Sabathia dominated the Twins 10 days ago at home, yielding two runs (one earned) on eight hits with no walks and eight strikeouts over 6 2/3 innings, picking up a 7-2 Game 1 victory. Eliminate an awful regular-season finale against Tampa Bay (nine runs, five earned, in 2 2/3 innings of a 13-4 loss), and Sabathia has delivered 11 consecutive quality starts. Even with the bad outing at Tampa Bay, New York is 12-1 in Sabathia’s last 13 trips the hill, all multiple-run victories. Additionally, with the hefty lefty starting, the Yankees are on runs of 8-0 at home, 4-0 against the A.L. West, 8-1 against winning clubs and 8-1 in series openers.
Including the performance against Minnesota last week, Sabathia is 8-2 with a 3.06 ERA in his first season pitching in Yankee Stadium and he’s 15-5 with a 2.95 ERA in 21 night games (5-3, 3.90 ERA in the daytime). However, Sabathia is just 5-7 with a 4.72 ERA in 14 career starts against the Angels, including 0-2 with a 6.08 ERA in two outings this season (one home, one road), giving up 10 runs (nine earned) in 13 1/3 innings. L.A. batted .321 against Sabathia in those two wins.
Although they topped the total in Game 3 at Boston on Sunday, the Angels are on nothing but “under” streaks, including 25-8-1 overall, 13-3 on the road, 9-1 in series openers, 5-2 against the A.L. East, 5-2 as an underdog, 15-6-1 versus winning teams, 4-0 against lefty-handed starters, 5-0 on Friday, 5-2-1 when Lackey starts on the road, 4-1 when Lackey faces the A.L. East and 9-4 when Lackey works as an underdog. Also, in postseason play, L.A. is on “under” runs of 3-1-1 overall, 5-1-2 as a visitor and 7-3 in the ALCS (4-0 on the road in the ALCS).
New York carries “under” trends of 8-2-1 overall, 6-0-1 at home, 7-1-1 versus righty starters, 6-2 against the A.L. West, 3-0-1 in the playoffs and 6-1-1 with Sabathia working at home.
In this rivalry, the over is 17-7 in the last 24 meetings overall, 5-1 in the last six clashes in New York and 4-0 in Lackey’s last four outings against the Yankees. However, five of Lackey’s final six starts at old Yankee Stadium stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Philadelphia Phillies and the Los Angeles Dodgers will both be trying to pick up a win on Friday when they battle at Dodger Stadium.
The Phillies will give the ball to starter Pedro Martinez in this one. Righthander Martinez is 5-1 this season with a 3.63 ERA.
Martinez's opponent in this one will be Vicente Padilla. The Dodgers righthander has a 4.31 ERA to go along with a 13-6 record this season.
The Phillies got out to ean early lead, as they defeated the Dodgers 8-6 in Game 1 of the NLCS on Thursday. The Phillies won the game as a -110 pick'em. The 14 runs sailed OVER the posted over/under (7.5).
Cole Hamels allowed four runs over eight innings in collecting the win.
Clayton Kershaw surrendered five runs over 4 2-3 innings in the loss.
Team records:
Philadelphia: 93-69 SU
Los Angeles: 95-67 SU
Philadelphia most recently:
When playing on Friday are 7-3
Before playing LA Dodgers are 5-5
After playing LA Dodgers are 5-5
After a win are 5-5
Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Friday are 6-4
Before playing Philadelphia are 6-4
After playing Philadelphia are 7-3
After a loss are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games
LA Dodgers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Next up:
LA Dodgers at Philadelphia, Sunday, October 18
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees
A winning streak will be on the line for the Los Angeles Angels on Friday when they battle the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium.
The Angels will give the ball to ace starter John Lackey in this one. Righthander Lackey is 12-8 this season with a 3.68 ERA.
Lackey's opponent in this one will be CC Sabathia. The Yankees ace lefthander has a 3.31 ERA to go along with a 20-8 record this season.
The Angels defeated Boston 7-6 as a +125 underdog to sweep their ALDS on Sunday. The 13 runs scored went OVER the posted over/under (9).
Vladimir Guerrero and Juan Rivera each drove in a pair of runs for Los Angeles, while Bobby Abreu was 3-5 with an RBI and two runs scored in that win.
The Yankees defeated Minnesota 4-1 as a -165 favorite on Sunday to sweep their ALDS. The five runs scored fell UNDER the posted over/under (9.5).
Jorge Posada homered and drove in a pair of runs for New York, and Alex Rodriguez hit a solo home run in that win.
Team records:
Los Angeles: 97-65 SU
New York: 103-59 SU
Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Friday are 6-4
Before playing NY Yankees are 6-4
After playing Boston are 7-3
After a win are 8-2
New York most recently:
When playing on Friday are 6-4
Before playing LA Angels are 6-4
After playing Minnesota are 8-2
After a win are 9-1
A few trends to consider:
LA Angels are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
LA Angels are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Angels's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Angels's last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
NY Yankees are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Yankees's last 7 games at home
NY Yankees are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Angels
Next up:
NY Yankees home to LA Angels, Saturday, October 17
Yanks, Halos fight for pennant
By AllStar.com
The Yankees have struggled with the Angels for most of this decade, setting up the Bombers for another difficult matchup in the ALCS. After losing four of the first six games against their West Coast nemesis this season, the Yankees rebounded in September, winning three of four against the Angels including two of three in Anaheim.
Both teams feature strong rotations and deep lineups, though the Yankees feature more power hitters while the Angels put the ball in play, use their speed and put pressure on the defense.
New York had the best record in the major leagues during the regular season at 103-59, and the Angels were second at 97-65. The teams split 10 games.
The Angels are very confident because they have been the post season nemesis to the Yankees. At 73-63, the Angels are the only AL club with a winning regular-season record against the Yankees since 1996.
After first-round sweeps of the Twins and Red Sox, respectively, both the Yankees and Angels will be rested and ready when the series kicks off Friday night in the Bronx.
Teams Breakdown:
Offense: Both Line ups are very deep. The Yankees led the majors in runs, OBP and homers in the regular season: the Angels led in batting average. The main difference the Yankees had 71 more homers; The Angels had 37 more stolen bases. Edge Yankees
Defense: Both ranked among the regular-season best; the Yankees committed 86 errors to the Angels' 85. Both clubs have Gold Glove candidates: 3B Chone Figgins and CF Torii Hunter for L.A.; 1B Mark Teixeira and SS Derek Jeter for the Yankees. Edge: Angels.
Bench: The Angels clearly have the deeper team, with second basemen Maicer Izturis and Howie Kendrick both capable of playing regularly. Brett Gardner provides speed off the Yankees' bench. Edge: Angels.
Mangers: Joe Girardi has had a great year guiding the Yankees to the best record in baseball. Mike Scioscia had the second best record in baseball, a long play off track record and
A World Series ring. Edge: Angels
PITCHERS ROTATION:
The New York Yankees are ranked 1st in pitching, with an earned run average of 1.55. Opponents are hitting .257 for average, and have a .328 on base percentage and .257 OPS against the Yankees this season.
The Los Angeles Angels are ranked third in pitching, with an earned run average of 2.33. Opponents are hitting .158 for average, and have a .223 on base percentage and .158 OPS against the Angels this season. Edge: Yankees
BULLPEN: This isn't a close matchup. Mariano Rivera continued his brilliant postseason record with seven strikeouts in 3.2 scoreless innings against the Twins although he allowed an inherited run in Game 2 and saved Game 3. Brian Fuentes had a solid series against the Red Sox, picking up two saves without allowing a run. Despite his league-leading 48 saves, the lefthander also suffered seven blown saves during the regular season, making him a far less reliable option than Rivera. Where the Yankees have the biggest edge is in middle relief, with Joba Chamberlain, Phil Coke, Dave Robertson, Alfredo Aceves and Phil Hughes. The Angels use Darren Oliver against lefties and Kevin Jepsen as the primary setup man. EDGE: YANKEES
HITTING: The New York Yankees are ranked seventh in hitting, with a batting average of .225. The Yankees are averaging 5.0 runs per game this season with OPS of .720. The Yankees hit 244 Home Runs which ranks first and rank 11th in stolen bases with 111.
YANKEES Season Stats vs. Angels vs. Lackey:
Derek Jeter, (.334, 18, 66; vs. Angels: .333, 0, 3; vs. Lackey: .341, 1, 5)
Johnny Damon, (.282, 24, 82; vs. Angels: .121, 1, 2; vs. Lackey: .333, 0, 4)
Mark Teixeira, (.292, 39, 122; vs. Angels: .225, 0, 2; vs. Lackey: .388, 2, 11)
Alex Rodriguez, (.286, 30, 100; vs. Angels: .333, 5, 9; vs. Lackey: .176, 4, 6)
Hideki Matsui, (.274, 28, 90; vs. Angels: .250; 3, 6; vs. Lackey: .286, 1, 7)
Jorge Posada, (.285, 22, 81; vs. Angels: .308, 3, 10; vs. Lackey: .414, 1 ,3)
Robinson Cano, (.320, 25, 85; vs. Angels: .341, 0, 5; vs. Lackey: .231, 0, 1)
Nick Swisher, (.249, 29, 82; vs. Angels: .211, 1, 3; vs. Lackey: .116, 1, 4)
Melky Cabrera, (.274, 13, 68; vs. Angels: .393, 0, 5; vs. Lackey: .360, 0, 1)
The Los Angeles Angels are ranked fourth in hitting, with a batting average of .258. The Angels are averaging 5.3 runs per game this season with OPS of .754. The Angels have hit 173 homeruns which ranks 12th and have stolen 147 bases and rank third.
ANGELS Season Stats vs. Yankees vs. Sabathia:
Chone Figgins, (.298, 5 HRs, 54 RBIs; vs. Yankees: .333, 1, 4; vs. Sabathia: .313, 1, 1)
Bobby Abreu, (.293, 15, 103; vs. Yankees: .314, 0, 8; vs. Sabathia: .333, 0, 1)
Torii Hunter, (.299, 22, 90; vs. Yankees: .233, 0, 3; vs. Sabathia: .294, 3, 17)
Vladimir Guerrero, (.295, 15, 50; vs. Yankees: .462, 1, 3; vs. Sabathia: .200, 1, 2)
Juan Rivera,(.287, 25, 88; vs. Yankees: .222, 0, 2; vs. Sabathia: .273, 0, 2)
Kendry Morales, (.306, 34, 108; vs. Yankees: .375, 3, 7; vs. Sabathia: .333, 0, 2)
Mike Napoli, (.272, 20, 56; vs. Yankees: .500, 2, 5; vs. Sabathia: .333, 1, 2)
Erick Aybar, (.312, 5, 58; vs. Yankees: .353, 1, 6; vs. Sabathia: didn't face)
Howie Kendrick, (291, 10, 61; vs. Yankees: .310, 0, 4; vs. Sabathia: .667, 0, 2)
Betting Trends:
The Angels are 10-1 in their last 11 games
The Angels are 19-7 in their last 26 games as a road underdog
The Yankees are 44-17 in their last 61 games
The Yankees are 8-0 in CC Sabathia’s last eight home starts
The OVER is 17-7 in the last 24 games between the two teams
Tips and Trends
Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees
Angels: The Angels are the only team in the American League to hold a winning record against the Yankees during the last nine years. The Angels have the best road record in the American League at 49-33 and are second in the majors in runs scored per game at 5.45, trailing just the Yankees, who averaged 5.65. The Angels are 10-1 in their last 11 games. Starting pitcher John Lackey (11-8, 3.83 ERA during the regular season) threw 7 1/3 scoreless innings in a 5-0 Game 1 playoff win against Boston at Angel Stadium. It was the right-hander’s first postseason victory since Game 7 of the 2002 World Series versus the Giants. Lackey is 5-7 with a 4.66 ERA in 16 career starts versus the Yankees. He has surrendered three earned runs on 10 hits in 14 2/3 innings against the Yankees during three playoff appearances.
The Angels are 6-13 in John Lackey’s last 19 starts against a team with a winning record.
The Under is 13-3 in the Angels’ past 16 road contests.
Key Injuries - None
PROJECTED SCORE: 4
Yankees (-$1.65, O/U 8.5 over -$1.15): CC Sabathia is a Cy Young Award contender with a 19-8, 3.37 ERA regular-season mark. But he struggled in both of his outings against the Angels this season, giving up nine earned runs and 17 hits in 13 1/3 innings. Career-wise against the Angels, the 290-pound lefty is 5-7 with a 4.72 ERA. Sabathia has won 12 of 14 decisions since the All-Star break. New York is 8-0 in Sabathia’s last eight home starts. The Yankees split their 10-game regular-season series with the Angels. New York finished a Major League-best 57-25 at home this year. The Yankees set a team record for home runs in a season with seven players going deep 20 or more times. The Yankees have won 11 of their last 14 games, with six of the last eight going under. The Yankees’ bullpen had the 14th-best ERA in baseball, while the Angels’ relief pitchers rated 23rd.
The Over has cashed 17 of the past 24 times the two teams have met.
The Yankees are 5-1 versus the Angels in New York.
Key Injuries - None
PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (OVER - Total of the Day)