Friday's Playoff Tip Sheet
By Chris David
Minnesota at New York – Game 2
The Yankees’ domination over the Twins this year continued on Wednesday in Game 1 of the American League Divisional Series. New York grabbed a 7-2 victory, improving its record to 8-0 against Minnesota this year. CC Sabathia struck out eight and walked none over 6 2-3 innings and both Derek Jeter and Hideki Matsui drilled two-run homers. Minnesota had opportunities to score but it went 1 for 9 with runners in scoring position and left nine men on base.
New York helped gamblers cash tickets as a heavy $3.80 favorite (Bet $380 to win $100) and also cashed run-line tickets (-180) as well. The combined nine runs barely fell ‘under’ the closing number of 9.5.
Since 2002, the Twins are just 3-24 in the Bronx and that includes the five losses this year. Can Minnesota get over this slump or has it run out of gas after a remarkable late-season run? The oddsmakers believe the latter as does the betting public. The Yankees are listed as $3.00 favorites for Game 2 and the run-line (-140) is heavy as well. The total is steady at 10 runs.
Nick Blackburn (11-11, 4.03 ERA) will get the start in Game 2, which is a good thing for the Twins. The club has won all four of his last starts and he’s been solid in each outing. Over this span, Blackburn has only surrendered five earned runs and one walk. He’s faced the Yankees four times in his career and is 0-1 with a 5.89 ERA. This year, Blackburn had a no decision against New York on May 16 as the Twins lost 6-4 on an Alex Rodriguez walk-off two-run homer in the 11th inning. Despite the team’s loss, Blackburn went 7 2-3 innings
The Yankees will counter with their other big free agent addition, A.J. Burnett (13-9, 4.04 ERA). He’s started 16 games at home this year and New York has posted a 12-4 record when he’s on the mound. Delving into the 12 victories deeper, nine of them came by one run. Burnett faced the Twins twice this year and the Yanks won both games, each coming in one-run fashion (4-3, 3-2). Catcher Jose Molina will start tonight instead of Jorge Posada
The Twins also announced that right-hander Carl Pavano will start Game 3 on Sunday at the Metrodome and, if needed, Scott Baker would start Game 4. The Yankees will counter with Andy Pettitte in Game 3 at Minnesota.
Once again, TBS will provide national coverage of this game at 6:05 p.m. EDT.
Boston at Los Angeles – Game 2
Two of the best pitchers will go head-to-head on Friday when the Red Sox’s Josh Becket (17-6, 3.86 ERA) and Angels’ Jeff Weaver battle. In the nine regular season games, the ‘under’ went 4-2 with three pushes. Run-line players should be aware that five of the nine were decided by one run.
Boston has owned Los Angeles in the playoffs, eliminating the club in three of its last four postseason appearances. Boston has gone 9-1 against the Angels, with the lone win (5-4) last year in the ALDS.
Game 3 is set for Sunday at Fenway Park. The Angles will send Scott Kazmir (10-9, 4.89 ERA) up against the Red Sox’s Clay Buchholz (7-4, 4.21 ERA).
TBS will provide national coverage of tonight’s tilt at 9:35 p.m. EDT
VegasInsider.com
Friday's Best Mound Matchup
By Covers.com
Josh Beckett (Boston Red Sox) vs. Jered Weaver (Los Angeles Angels)
Josh Beckett (17-6, 3.86 ERA)
The perception is that Beckett is the top postseason pitcher in the game, and his overall marks over 7-2 with three shutouts and a 2.90 ERA make that hard to argue. But his form last October was less than stellar.
Beckett started three games, going 1-0 with an 8.79 ERA while allowing seven homers. But the Red Sox lost his other two starts as he was hit hard by both the Angels in the Division Series and the Rays in the ALCS.
One of Beckett's postseason shutouts came against the Angels in 2007. But he was not as sharp against them in last year's ALDS and was 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA vs. the Angels this season.
Despite some back spasms, Beckett was 3-0 in his last four regular-season starts, getting a no-decision vs. the Angels. But he wasn't overwhelming, continuing a trend that saw him go 11-3 with a 3.35 ERA before the All-Star break and 6-3 with a 4.53 ERA afterward.
Beckett gets a little sloppy with runners aboard, allowing opposing batters to hit .279 with 75 RBI. He will have to be better in this series, but this has been his time of the season.
Jered Weaver (16-8, 3.63 ERA)
The Angels have one win in 10 postseason games against the Red Sox, and Weaver has it. Unfortunately, it came as a reliever.
Weaver pitched the last two frames of the Angels' 5-4 12-inning win in Game Three of the ALDS a year ago. He also took the loss in Game Three in 2007, allowing two runs in five innings.
This season, Weaver had good success against Boston, going 1-0 with an 0.66 ERA in two starts. Both of those outings came in the first six weeks of the season.
Weaver lost three straight starts in September before beating Oakland with five scoreless innings in his final regular-season outing. Despite the late slide, his ERA over his last seven starts was a sparkling 2.27.
As expected, Weaver is much tougher on righthanded hitters, limiting them to a .208 average. His 2.90 ERA at home is almost two runs better than it is on the road.
The righthander actually is easier to hit with the bases empty (.248) than with runners on (.242). With runners in scoring position, he held batters to a .200 average and two homers in 175 at-bats.
Minnesota (0-1) at N.Y. Yankees (1-0)
A.J. Burnett (13-9, 4.04) makes his first career postseason start as he tries to guide the Yankees to a 2-0 lead in this best-of-5 series with the Twins, who will counter with Nick Blackburn (11-11, 4.07).
CC Sabathia put aside past playoff disappointments and pitched New York to a 7-2 victory in Game 1. The Yankees are now 8-0 against the Twins this season, including 5-0 in the Bronx. Furthermore, New York is 48-16 in the last 64 meetings overall and 26-5 in the last 31 clashes in the Bronx.
The Twins, who earned the A.L. Central title on Monday with a 6-5, 12-inning victory over Detroit in a one-game playoff, are still 17-5 in their last 22 games. They’re also on positive runs of 7-4 on the road, 21-6 against right-handed starters, 11-3 on the highway against righty starters, 29-11 after an off day, 36-15 on Friday and 5-1 in the second game of a series. On the downside, Ron Gardenhire’s squad is in playoff slumps of 5-16 overall, 1-4 on the road, 1-10 in divisional games, 1-10 as an underdog.
The Yankees are on impressive runs of 42-17 overall, 42-13 in their new stadium, 38-14 against the A.L. Central and 41-17 versus teams with a winning record. However, Joe Girardi’s squad, which has made the postseason 14 of the last 15 years, has lost back-to-back divisional series, and despite Wednesday’s victory, New York is just 2-6 in its last eight playoff games, all as a favorite.
Blackburn was a key to Minnesota’s late-season surge, going 2-0 with a 1.65 ERA over his last four starts, with the Twins winning all four games. Also, since Aug. 21, the right-hander has given up three earned runs or fewer in eight of nine starts, posting a 2.28 ERA in four road outings during this stretch, three of which Minnesota won. For the season, Blackburn was 4-7 with a 3.89 ERA in 17 starts as a visitor.
Although the Twins came out on top in each of Blackburn’s last four regular-season starts, they’re just 8-20 in his last 28 road outings, 3-8 in his last 11 against A.L. East squads and 4-11 in his last 14 as a road pup. Blackburn has made four career starts against the Yankees, going 0-1 with a 5.89 ERA, including a 6-4 loss at Yankee stadium on May 16. This is the 27-year-old’s first career playoff start.
Like Blackburn, Burnett was strong down the stretch, giving up just seven runs (five earned) in his final four starts covering 24 innings (1.46 ERA), and he recorded 28 strikeouts versus 10 walks over this four-game stretch. With Burnett on the hill, the Yankees are on hot streaks of 5-2 overall, 5-1 against the A.L. Central and 13-5 as a favorite.
New York went 12-4 in the veteran right-hander’s 16 starts at New Yankee Stadium, with Burnett posting a 5-3 record and a 3.51 ERA. Against the Twins in his career, Burnett is 2-1 with a 3.72 ERA in six starts, including 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two games this year, as the Yanks won 3-2 at home and 4-3 on the road.
When Blackburn pitches, the under is on runs of 16-5-1 on the road, 6-1-1 as a road underdog and 3-0-1 against the A.L. East, and with Burnett working, the under is on stretches of 3-1-1 overall, 7-1-1 at home, 5-1 against the A.L. Central, 10-4 as a favorite and 5-0 on Friday
Minnesota is on “over” streaks of 6-1-1 overall, 6-3-1 on the road, 4-0-1 against right-handed starts and 13-5-2 as a road underdog, but the under is 19-6-2 in its last 27 against the A.L. East and 11-2-1 in its last 14 after a defeat. For New York, the “under” is on runs of 6-2-1 overall, 5-0-1 at home and 5-1-1 versus the A.L. Central.
Finally, the under is 28-11-4 in the last 44 Twins-Yankees battles in New York (3-1-1 this year).
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
Boston (0-1) at L.A. Angels (1-0)
Looking to draw even in their best-of-5 ALDS with the Angels, the Red Sox send postseason specialist Josh Beckett (17-6, 3.86 ERA) to the mound at Angel Stadium in Anaheim opposite Los Angeles’ Jered Weaver (16-8, 3.63) in Game 2.
The Angels’ Torii Hunter belted a three-run, fifth-inning homer and ace John Lackey threw 7 1/3 innings of shutout baseball to lead Los Angeles to Thursday’s 5-0 opening-game victory.
This is the third straight year and the fourth time since 2004 that the Red Sox and Angels have faced off in an opening-round playoff series, and Boston has come out on top each time, winning nine of the previous 10 contests. Last year, the Red Sox won the best-of-5 series in four games, including winning the first two contests at Angel Stadium.
This year, the Angels won the season series from Boston 5-4, going 4-2 in Anaheim, and since the start of 2008, Los Angeles is 14-4 in regular-season play versus the Sox (7-2 at Angel Stadium).
The Red Sox are still on positive streaks of 4-1 overall, 9-5 as a favorite, 13-6 as a road favorite and 21-9 versus right-handed starters. Also, in postseason action, Terry Francona’s club remains on surges of 13-6 overall, 7-3 on the road, 6-2 in divisional contests (all against the Angels) and 6-3 in divisional road games (4-1 in Anaheim).
Los Angeles is 52-28 since July 10, including 8-1 in the last eight, and Mike Scioscia’s squad is 50-32 in Anaheim this season (5-1 in the last six). The Halos carry further positive trends of 23-6 as a home underdog and 49-21 after a victory. However, the Angels have still lost 10 of their last 12 playoff contests (nine of 11 to Boston) and six of seven home playoff games, and they’re 2-5 in their last seven as a playoff pup.
Beckett is 7-2 with a 2.90 ERA in 13 career playoff starts with three complete games and three shutouts. Last year he allowed four runs on nine hits over five innings of a 5-4 loss to the Angles in Boston in Game 3 of the ALDS, but the year before he faced the Halos in this round and threw a four-hit complete-game shutout, winning 4-0.
Beckett saw these Angels on Sept. 17 and allowed three runs over eight innings of a 4-3 loss in Boston, his last defeat of the regular season. In fact, Boston has actually lost Beckett’s last five starts to the Angels as the right-hander allowed three runs or more in each of the five. Beckett is just 2-3 with a 4.13 ERA in eight career regular-season starts against Los Angeles.
Beckett closed the season on Saturday at home against the Indians, allowing four runs over five innings of an 11-6 win. The Red Sox are on runs of 19-8 in Beckett’s last 27 starts and 10-1 when he gets five days off, but just 2-6 when he faces a team with a winning record.
Weaver is 9-3 with a 2.82 ERA at home this season, and the Angels snapped a three-game losing streak behind the right-hander on Friday when Weaver threw five shutout innings in Oakland, beating the A’s 5-2. The young right-hander looked good against Boston this season, giving up just two runs (one earned) in two starts that spanned 13 2/3 innings. For his career, he is 2-2 with a 3.99 ERA in eight regular-season starts against the Red Sox.
Weaver faced Boston in the 2007 postseason and gave up two runs on four hits in five innings but the Angels lost at home 9-1. Los Angeles is on runs of 17-8 behind Weaver overall, 35-16 when Weaver starts at home and 5-1 when he works at home against teams with a winning record.
The Red Sox have topped the total in eight of Beckett’s last 10 starts overall, but stayed below the number in four of his last five outings against A.L. West opponents. As a team, Boston is on “over” streaks of 6-2 against right-handed starters, 5-2 on the road against right-handers, 5-3 overall and 5-2 on Fridays, however it has stayed below the number in six of eight road playoff games.
It’s been all “unders” for the Angels, including 24-7-1 overall, 15-5-1 against right-handed starters, 14-5-1 against teams with winning records, 6-2-2 in ALDS games and 5-0-1 with Weaver on the hill. Finally, the “over” is 4-1-1 in Weaver’s last six against Boston, but the “under” is 3-1-1 in his last five at home against the BoSox.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees
The Minnesota Twins will battle the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on Friday in Game 2 of their ALDS.
The Twins will give the ball to starter Nick Blackburn in this one. Righthander Blackburn is 11-11 this season with a 4.03 ERA.
Starting this game for the Yankees will be AJ Burnett. The righthander has a 4.04 ERA to go along with a 13-9 record this season.
Oddsmakers currently have the Yankees listed as 310-moneyline favorites versus the Twins, while the game's total is sitting at 10.
CC Sabathia fanned eight batters over 6 2-3 innings to help the Yankees defeat the Twins 6-2 in Game 1 of the series on Wednesday.
The Yankees won the game as -360 favorites, while the eight runs went UNDER the posted over/under (9.5).
Hideki Matsui and Derek Jeter belted two-run homers in leading the Yankees. Alex Rodriguez also drove in a pair of runs.
Brian Duensing was rocked for seven hits and five runs over 4 2-3 innings in the loss. Oddsmakers listed the Twins as +310 underdogs.
Team records:
Minnesota: 86-76 SU
New York: 103-59 SU
Minnesota most recently:
When playing on Friday are 5-5
Before playing NY Yankees are 4-6
After playing NY Yankees are 3-7
After a loss are 7-3
New York most recently:
When playing on Friday are 6-4
Before playing Minnesota are 8-2
After playing Minnesota are 7-3
After a win are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
NY Yankees are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Minnesota
NY Yankees are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
NY Yankees are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games at home
Next up:
NY Yankees at Minnesota, Sunday, October 11
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels
The Boston Red Sox will take on the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium on Friday in Game 2 of their ALDS.
The Red Sox will give the ball to ace starter Josh Beckett in this one. Righthander Beckett is 17-6 this season with a 3.86 ERA.
Starting this game for the Angels will be Jered Weaver. The righthander has a 3.75 ERA to go along with a 16-8 record this season.
Odds aren't yet posted for this game, so check back later for the opening line and total.
John Lackey combined on a four-hit shutout on Thursday as the Angels defeated the Red Sox 5-0 in Game 1 of the series. The Angels won the game as a -110 pick'em, while the teams played UNDER the posted over/under (8.5).
Torii Hunter launched a three-run homer to lead the Angels, and Kendry Morales also drove in a run.
Jon Lester gave up three runs off four hits over six innings in the loss for Boston.
Team records:
Boston: 95-67 SU
Los Angeles: 97-65 SU
Boston most recently:
When playing on Friday are 4-6
Before playing LA Angels are 7-3
After playing LA Angels are 4-6
After a loss are 4-6
Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Friday are 5-5
Before playing Boston are 4-6
After playing Boston are 5-5
After a win are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing LA Angels
Boston is 7-15 SU in their last 22 games when playing LA Angels
Boston is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
LA Angels are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Angels's last 7 games
LA Angels are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Angels's last 5 games when playing Boston
Next up:
LA Angels at Boston, Sunday, October 11
MLB Playoffs
Twins have now lost last nine games in Bronx; Blackburn is 2-0, 1.65 in his last four starts. Burnett is 2-1, 2.63 in his last four starts; he was 1-0, 2.77 in two starts against Twins this season- three of his last four starts stayed under total, as did six of last nine Blackburn outings. Blackburn allowed four runs in 7.2 IP in his only start vs Minnesota this season.
Angel win last night was just their second in last 11 playoff games vs Boston; Weaver has 2.65 RA in his last three starts; he was 1-0, 1.32 in two starts against the Red Sox this season. Beckett is 3-0, 3.75 in his last four starts; he was 0-1, 4.50 in two starts against Angels this year. eight of his last ten starts went over the total, but under is 6-0-1 in Weaver's last seven starts.