Total Talk
MLB at the All Star Break: A Different Perspective
With the All-Star break nearly upon us this column comes from a different angle than my normal look at the various upcoming series in baseball action. This column addresses an area for you to consider giving some extra attention to in the upcoming second half of the baseball season. The contents of this column has been presented before but with my angles for baseball wagering on a very profitable run right now, this is the perfect time to revisit an area where MLB betting can be a lot of fun in addition to being highly profitable.
The key in making money and enjoying what you do in the baseball ‘wagering arena’ is that you have to understand there will always be some frustrating moments. This is true no matter how well you handicap and no matter how disciplined you are when it comes to your decision making. Invariably, we all get involved with games that are truly "sweat" games where you have to sweat out the final innings of a baseball game. However, the beauty of betting baseball totals is that there is one potential play you can make that is quite unlike any other "full game" bet you can place in the other major sports.
Advertisement
Click here to find out more!
First off we want to preface this with the fact that we do handicap NHL hockey and it does offer a similar opportunity. However, we know that there are many out there who only bet on Football, Hoops, and Baseball and simply don’t get involved in hockey. Also, there is one key difference with Baseball that makes it different from all three of the other sports…there is no clock! Herein lies the key to why we love betting overs in baseball. We are the first to admit that there are certainly good under plays on the board most every night. However, we simply choose to focus on what we’ve become best at, and what has become our "bread and butter" in baseball, and that’s overs. Baseball is the only sport where a game can be only 11% complete and you’ve already cashed a wager. Read on for more.
In Basketball there is no way your game is going over the total in the first 10% or five minutes of the game. In Football your game is not going to go over the total in the first 10% or six minutes of the game. Even in Hockey, it’s very unlikely your total will go over in the first six minutes of a game. But the fact is we have played baseball games where our over has exceeded the posted number in the very 1st inning! It can happen, that’s the beauty of betting overs in the baseball. Of course we’ll take an over whenever it cashes but the fact is that MLB is very unique in how early you can cash a ticket. As an example, imagine having a game where the total is a 9.5 and the score is 7-4 after only two innings! It does happen and, at that point, you only have two things to worry about, weather and a power failure. As for weather, we’ve done our homework ahead of time and it would be a surprise to see a rainout follow on any of our overs. As for power outages that’s a very, very rare occurrence but it has happened so, if you want to be 100% sure, don’t ever "bank" on your ticket until the game does indeed go final. Still, the beauty of betting MLB overs is in the ability to cash a ticket very, very early in a ballgame.
The other nice thing about overs in baseball is you’re never really out of it. In football there will be times when you know that your over is dead no matter what happens in the fourth quarter. In basketball you’ll watch a game where you know you need double OT to cash an over and that’s simply a prayer in most cases. As for baseball, we’ve seen games where the score is 1-1 heading to the 9th and you need over 8.5 and the game looks dead. Next thing you know the road team puts up three in the top of the 9th and the home team answers with three runs in the bottom of the 9th and you’re guaranteed of at least a 5-4 game and a winning ticket. Now granted this type of game is rare but the key point is that, thanks to the absence of the clock in baseball, you are truly never really out of a play!
Now we certainly admire and respect handicappers that do very well with picking unders but keep in mind how the opposite is true with unders. If you play under 8.5 and the game is 4-4 in the 4th than you’re done. You can turn the game off because you’re best hope at that point is a rainout! We know that there are some good under opportunities on the board each night. However, we also know that there are good over opportunities too and that’s where we choose to focus. Like any handicapper, we will have our streaks, but through the years the overs have been very good to us and have created profits. Of course sports betting is all about the profits but this article is just a little insight into how the sports betting can be quite fun in addition to being quite profitable. Bet an over, sit back and root for offense, and be sure and enjoy the over 9.5s that are 7-4 in the second inning. We know we sure do! As always, best of luck in all your gaming from Scott Rickenbach.
VegasInsider.com
Winners and Losers
By Chris David
Pro baseball is easily the most grueling schedule in the four major professional sports, with 30 teams going head-to-head over a 162-game schedule. The action takes place over a six-month period from April through September and the majority of teams know their destiny by the All-Star break.
At the beginning of the season, oddsmakers posted regular season win totals on each ball club. The wager itself is simple, bet either ‘over’ or ‘under’ the number posted by the bookmakers.
Every season you have overachieving teams and your classic case of underachievers as well. Let’s take a closer look at the early winners and losers of the first half of the regular season.
Sunshine Surprises
Easily the biggest surprise of this year is Tampa Bay, who is on pace to win over 90-plus ball games. Oddsmakers expected the Rays to improve this season, but it’s hard to imagine anybody predicting them to win ‘over’ their win total of 76, especially with an all-time winning percentage of .410.
Things have changed at Tropicana Field this season, with the Rays sitting in first place of the American League East at the midseason point. Entering the final weekend before the All-Star break, Tampa has notched 55 victories, which are just 15 less than its franchise-record of 70 wins (2004).
Going ‘over’ 76 wins seems very likely for the Rays, but it appears this group has higher aspirations.
The Rays have always taken the back seat to its southern neighbor in the Marlins and deservingly so, with Florida owning two world championships in its young history. The Fish haven’t won as many games (48) as the Rays, but the books didn’t expect much from the South Florida club, listing their win total oat 68 ½ games. Currently, the Marlins are on pace to win 84 games.
Windy City Winners
The Cubs and White Sox are both sitting atop their respective divisions. The Cubbies were expected to be solid, projected at a regular season win total of 87½. Right now, Lou Piniella’s team is on pace to hit 96 wins. The White Sox were predicted to win 10 less games (77½) by the oddsmakers and Ozzie Guillen’s team appears to be on target for 94 wins.
Heroes to Zeroes
Last year, Colorado and Cleveland both made the playoffs but postseason talk isn’t swirling in those clubhouses this summer. The Rockies and Indians both had high expectations but neither team has been able to duplicate the efforts put forth last season.
Colorado is on pace to win 67 games, far below their opening number of 83½. Even worse, Cleveland was forecast for 90 wins after barely missing the World Series last year. Currently, the Tribe are expected to come up 23 games (67) short at this point.
VegasInsider.com
Texas Rangers shuffle pitching staff again
July 11, 2008
ARLINGTON, Texas (AP) -The revolving door for the Texas Rangers pitching staff took another spin on Friday when the club sent Scott Feldman and Wes Littleton to the minors and called up Kameron Loe and Joselo Diaz from their farm system.
Diaz will be the 26th pitcher used by the Rangers this season when he makes his debut with Texas. The Rangers entered Friday night with a team ERA of 5.04, highest in the AL and second highest in the majors.
Littleton was sent back to Triple-A Oklahoma after being called up from that club on Wednesday. Feldman was optioned to Double-A Frisco. Both pitched in Thursday night's 11-10, 11-inning defeat to the Los Angeles Angels.
Feldman, who joined the Texas rotation in May, started on Thursday night, allowing eight runs and six hits in 3 2-3 innings. Littleton followed Feldman, giving up two runs and two hits in 3 1-3 innings.
Feldman was not scheduled to pitch again until after the All-Star break, and Littleton would not have been available for the opener of a three-game series against the Chicago White Sox after throwing 55 pitches on Thursday night.
``I needed some arms,'' Rangers manager Ron Washington said.
Feldman was converted from reliever to starter this season. Washington said Feldman would re-join the Rangers after the All-Star break, but Feldman could be sent to the bullpen rather than returning to the rotation.
``My innings are creeping up and they don't want to set me back for next year,'' said Feldman, who's already pitched 87 2-3 innings at the major league level and isn't supposed to throw more than 135 innings this season. ``They needed extra pitchers and I have options.''
Loe begins his third stint with Texas this season, going 1-0 with a 2.16 ERA in four relief appearances. He's made 19 appearances for Oklahoma with a 2-4 record and 5.59 ERA.
Diaz was signed by the Rangers on June 11 and went 1-0 with four saves and a 3.95 ERA in eight relief appearances for Frisco. He was a non-roster invitee to spring training by the New York Mets and spent the first two months with Triple-A New Orleans. He went 1-5 with a 6.69 ERA in 12 games for New Orleans before he was released on June 5.
Diaz pitched for Yokohama of the Japanese League last year, going 3-4 with a 4.59 ERA in 45 relief appearances. He was also in the Texas organization in 2006, making appearances for both Frisco and Oklahoma.
He was traded by Texas to Kansas City for outfielder Matt Stairs on July 31, 2006. Diaz made his only four major league appearances with the Royals in September of 2006, and his last big league outing came on Sept. 23, 2006 against Detroit.
Saturday’s streaking and slumping pitchers
By JUSTIN BANKS
Streaking
Ricky Nolasco, Florida Marlins (10-4, 3.74)
Nolasco is amidst the best season of his MLB career. The right-hander is 3-0 with a sizzling 1.57 ERA and 0.65 WHIP, surrendering four earned runs in that period. He also has 24 strikeouts against a single walk in his last three outings.
The third-year starter has lost just once in his last 10 starts and has conceded more than three earned runs once in that span. Nolasco is also 6-2 outside the Sunshine State with a reliable 3.99 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP.
Florida is 6-0 in Nolasco’s last six starts and is 4-1 in its last five trips to L.A.
Scott Baker, Minnesota Twins (5-2, 3.32)
Baker has been lights-out recently for the Twins. The right-hander is 2-0 in his last three starts with a solid 2.84 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP.
The right-hander has 31 strikeouts in his last five starts, including a seven-strikeout performance against the Boston Red Sox. Baker is 3-3 all-time versus the Detroit Tigers and is 1-0 against them this season with a 3.38 ERA.
The Twins are 5-2 in Baker’s last seven against the AL Central. They are also 8-2 in their last 10 games against the Tigers.
Slumping
Darrell Rasner, New York Yankees (1-2, 6.60)
Rasner has struggled all season and has managed to pull out just one win in his last eight starts. The right-hander lasted five innings, surrendering 10 hits and six earned runs last Friday against the Red Sox.
The righty, 0-3 in his last three outings, has given up four homers in that period. He has also tossed more than 100 pitches in his last two outings.
The Bronx Bombers are winless in Rasner’s last five road starts and are 1-4 in his last five starts against the AL East.
Phil Dumatrait, Pittsburgh Pirates (3-4, 5.26)
It can’t get much worse for Dumatrait. The left-hander is 0-1 with a lofty 14.18 ERA in his last three starts and has surrendered 21 earned runs on 25 hits in that span.
Dumatrait, who is still recovering from a shoulder ailment, is 0-1 with a lofty 7.11 ERA in three career starts against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Pittsburgh is 1-4 in Dumatrait’s last five contests against a team with a winning record and is 1-2 in his last three starts overall.
Covers.com
Hot lines: Saturday's best MLB bets
By COVERS
Cincinnati at Milwaukee (-115, 8½)
I liked what I saw from Cincinnati last night. The Reds’ lineup battled all night against a sharp Manny Parra but stuck to the game plan and finally got the runs they needed for a 6-5 win at +178 once the Brewers bullpen entered the game. Today could be a similar situation.
This is a dangerous Cincinnati lineup (despite their .247 club average) and Seth McClung will have his hands full in his first career start against the Reds. And it’s the little things that are starting to creep up to bite the Brewers. One of the worst fielding teams in the National League, they had three errors last night, all of which resulted in runs scoring. That kind of careless play can kill a team – and bettors.
Pick: Reds
Colorado at New York Mets (-135, 9)
Don’t look at Pedro’s numbers. His 6.86 ERA doesn’t matter, his 3-2 record isn’t an issue, and his 36-year-old body won’t fail him.
Instead, put your faith in the way he pitched in his most recent outing, when he held a very potent Philadelphia lineup to just five hits and two runs in 5 1/3 innings last week. Martinez is smart enough and experienced enough to know how to get over slumps and find his groove after some bad outings. With a home club on a seven-game winning streak and a veteran pitcher on the mound, the Mets are a steal at this price.
Pick: Mets
BEHIND THE LINES
Right-hander Rich Harden will make his first start for the Chicago Cubs today when he faces the San Francisco Giants at Wrigley Field.
With Harden, recently acquired by the Cubs in a trade from Oakland, on the mound, Chicago is listed as a -250 favorite over San Francisco (+210), according to Sportsbook.com.
Harden, who had a 5-1 record with a 2.34 earned-run average with the Athletics, has not pitched in a week and is coming off a 5-4 loss to the Chicago White Sox.
The Giants will turn to right-hander Kevin Correia, who is 1-5 with a 4.96 ERA. San Francisco is 0-7 in Correia's last seven starts, including a 5-4 loss to the Cubs on July 2.
Here are a couple of proposition wagers connected to pitcher CC Sabathia, recently traded from Cleveland to Milwaukee, and Harden, available at Bodoglife.com.
Which National League Central team will make the playoffs? Cubs (7-5), Brewers (7-2), both (even), or neither (20-1); Who will win more games for their new teams for the 2008 regular season? Sabathia -2 (-115) or Harden +2 (-115); How many starts will Harden have for the Cubs this season? Over 10 (-115) or under 10 (-115).
latimes.com
Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
San Francisco at Chicago (1:05 p.m. EDT). Rich Harden makes his debut for the Cubs.
STARS
- Roy Halladay, Blue Jays, pitched a two-hitter for his 11th career shutout and seventh complete game this season, striking out eight in a 5-0 win over the Yankees.
- Chris Volstad, Marlins, came within one out of a shutout in his first career start, settling for 8 2-3 innings and one earned run in a 3-1 victory over the Dodgers.
- Cliff Lee, Indians, gave up five hits over six innings to improve to 12-2, joining Joe Saunders of the Angels for the league lead in wins, with a 5-0 victory over the Rays.
- Ronnie Belliard, Nationals, homered twice along with a double, driving in five runs and scoring two more in a 10-0 trouncing of the Astros.
- Damion Easley, Mets, went 2-for-3 with the go-ahead solo home run in the eighth inning of a 2-1 win over the Rockies.
- Kyle Lohse, Cardinals, improved to 11-2 by allowing six hits and a walk over seven innings in a 6-0 shutout of the Pirates.
- Jake Peavy, Padres, gave up four hits and a walk over seven innings, striking out seven in a 4-0 win over the Braves.
- Luke Hochevar, Royals, limited the Mariners to five hits and a run over seven innings, striking out four in a 3-1 victory.
DOUBLE DUTY
Matt Guerrier and his bullpen mates didn't show any sign of fatigue in retiring the last seven Detroit batters in a 3-2 win - though nobody could blame them if they did. Along with Jesse Crain and closer Joe Nathan, the trio of Twins relievers combined to throw 81 pitches in five frames of an 11-inning victory the previous night.
CLIFF NOTES
Cliff Lee is turning in quite the first half for the Indians. After beating Tampa Bay 5-0, Lee (12-2) is tied with Joe Saunders of the Angels for the league lead in wins. The left-hander also lowered his ERA to 2.31, improved to 5-0 with a 1.62 ERA in seven home stars, and has refused to give up a run in six of his 18 starts.
WINNER, WINNER
Chris Volstad became the sixth pitcher since 1971 to get a victory as a starter and a reliever in his first two big league appearances when he came within one out of a shutout in a 3-1 win over the Dodgers. Volstad was making his first career start, after throwing two innings of scoreless relief at Colorado last Sunday.
MAGNIFICENT METS
Damion Easley's two-out solo homer in the eighth inning carried the Mets to their seventh straight win, 2-1 over the Rockies. It's their longest winning streak since Aug. 17-24, 2006. A lot of it has to do with pitching - New York allowed three hits for the fourth consecutive game, the first time that's happened in franchise history.
THE DOC IS IN
Roy Halladay threw a two-hitter for his seventh complete game of the season, a 5-0 win over the Yankees. It was also his 11th career shutout, and allowed Halladay (11-6) to improve to 8-1 over his past 12 starts. The Yankees put just two runners in scoring position against him.
NOT QUITE A NO-NO
Red Sox youngster Clay Buchholz gave up a game-opening double and never settled down, getting outpitched by Brian Burress in a 7-3 loss to the Orioles. Buchholz gave up four runs, five hits and five walks in five innings in his first start against Baltimore since throwing a no-hitter last Sept. 1.
SAVING THE ROYALS
Joakim Soria, the Royals' lone representative to the All-Star game, pitched a flawless ninth to finish off a 3-1 win over Seattle. It was his 25th save in 27 opportunities, tying a team record for saves by the All-Star break set by Jeff Montgomery in 1993.
SPEAKING
"He never throws a ball over the middle of the plate. If you face him four or five times a game, you might get one pitch over the plate. He goes from corner to corner as good as any pitcher in the game. He's probably the best starter in baseball, I would think. I know I'm a little biased because we face him 10 times a year. He's as consistent as anyone.'' -Derek Jeter, after Roy Halladay confounded the Yankees in a 5-0, two-hit shutout.
Saturday MLB Research
By IndianCowboy
New York vs. Toronto
Something interesting about Rasner is that he rarely gets shelled in back to back ballgames, he had a 10.8 ERA in his last start at home against Boston, he is 1-5 with a 6.39 ERA on the road however, heh as yet to face Toronto this season, Yanks come off a brutal loss to the Bluejays where they only picked up 2 hits on Halladay, Litsch had a 6.75 ERA in his last start against the Yanks on the road this year on june 4th, he had back to back quality starts until he got roughed up the angels in his last start on the road for a 10.13 ERA, he is 4-1 with a 3.19 era at home, I lean on the bluejays, despite Rasner on the bounce-back but he does not pitch well on the road however.
Minny vs. Detroit
Have to keep the rest of the write-ups here relatively short, Baker has pitched around a 4 ERA against Detroit of late, I don't trust Robertson have to back to back quality starts, Minny has consistently had success hitting him, lean on the Twins here with the more consistent pitcher.
Tampa Bay vs. Cleveland
At some point the Devil Rays have to win a game in this series, it is likely here as Garza is on a bounce-back from the Royals start and the Indians poor offense is likely to catch up with them here. Ginter has not pitched since 2005 so likely has some nerves coming in here.
Baltimore vs. Boston
Liz has been horrible as he is on a bounce-back, at the same token, Wakefield is as well, but Liz has given up 14 hits in less than 10 innings and of course Wake remembers the game that his team eventually went on to lose that he pitched against the O's and Guthrie earlier this season, lean on the Boston rl here.
White Sox vs. Texas
Danks has pitched 6 of 7 qualty starts, Millwood is on a bounce-back here despite winning his last start, lean on the under here despite the big number placed on both of these pitchers as I believe they likely step up each of their respective game for this ballgame here.
Seattle vs. Kansas City
Washburn is 6-1 to the under of late and lost to Greinke earlier this year as Wash usually has a bounce-back after a 4+ ERA start and Greinke did win his last start on the road and has given up just 3 runs in about 20 innings at home of late, lean on the under here.
Angels vs. Oakland
Santana did win in his last start but he had a horrible ERA, he is on a bounce-back in some terms, he has drilled Oakland both times he has faced them, Eveland is on a bounce-back here, great pitcher at home, but he has struggled against the Angels, likely just staying away from this ballgame, but lean on the Angels also coming from yesterday's beat down loss which was my pod.