Handicapping the MLB Home Run Derby
By Larry Ness
I was asked to do a preview of MLB's Home Run Derby (something I typically don't do) but jumped at the opportunity. Being somewhat "old school," when I think Home Run Derby, I think of the 1959 TV show held at Wrigley Field in Los Angeles. It featured some of the sluggers in MLB, squaring off against each other in nine-inning HR contests (a HR was a run and anything else an out, including a swing and a miss). I used watch the show in reruns during the '60s with my boyhood friend Peter and then we'd go out in my backyard with a whiffle ball and bat and recreate the setting.
The show was hosted by then-Hollywood Stars broadcaster Mark Scott and was contested at Wrigley Field in Los Angeles (yes, there was one there, too) Seven players who would eventually join MLB's 500-HR club appeared appeared. That select group included Hank Aaron, Ernie Banks, Harmon Killebrew, Mickey Mantle, Eddie Mathews, Willie Mays and Frank Robinson. In all, nine future Hall of Famers participated. The seven already listed, as well as Al Kaline and Duke Snider.
While one player was taking his turn at bat, the other player would be engage Scott in "small talk." Scott was as hokey as they come and MLB players of that day were hardly media-savvy. The weekly winner received $2,000 and was invited back for the next week's episode against a new opponent (the runner-up received $1,000). Bonuses of $500 were paid for three HRs in a row, a fourth HR was worth another $500 and any consecutive HR hit after that would each be worth $1,000 per.
I guess you have to be from that era to really appreciate it. Hank Aaron held the record for most money won on Home Run Derby ($13,500) and won six consecutive wins contests. Jackie Jensen was the only player to hit four and five HRs in a row and the entire series lasted just 26 contests. Host Mark Scott died in 1960 from a heart attack and the producers decided not to replace him and the show was canceled.
However, as with every walk of life, "imitation is the sincerest form of flattery." This TV series helped inspire the current Home Run Derby, which is contested the day before MLB's annual All-Star game. The contest began in 1985 (Pittsburgh's Dave Parker won) and has been held each year since, except for 1988 when it was canceled due to rain. Ken Griffey, Jr. is the event's only multiple winner, winning in 1994 and its lone repeat champ, winning in '98 and '99.
Vladimir Guerrero won last year but is not in this year's competition so Griffey's record is safe. Bobby Abreu, then with the Phillies, had a 24-HR first round in 2005, on his way to hitting 41 HRs, the most by any player. This year's competition is being held at Yankee Stadium, in the final season of "The House That Ruth Built" (new Yankee Stadium opens next year, right next door). Fittingly, the date is July 14 (7/14). One could write the date this way, 7-1-4 (Babe's career HR total). I saw this on a blog somewhere, but don't remember where (congrats to the author).
Now to this year's competition. As of Sunday morning, there was still one spot open, as the selection process for this year's Derby has taken longer than the Democratic primary. From the AL it's Josh Hamilton (Texas), Evan Longoria (Tampa Bay) and Grady Sizemore (Cleveland) plus a player to be named later (hopefully by Monday night). In the NL, it's Lance Berkman (Houston), Ryan Braun (Milwaukee), Dan Uggla (Florida) and Chase Utley (Philadelphia).
These are not exactly marquee names, as many players feel as if this competition hurts them. Conventional wisdom says that the constant swinging for home runs causes bad mechanics that are difficult to shake. The "poster boy" for this thinking is Bobby Abreu, who set a record with 41 HRs in the 2005 event in Detroit. He came into the Derby hitting .307 with 18 home runs but hit just .260 with six HRs the rest of the season. Is there any real truth to this? As you can see, I'm not so sure the facts back up the "theory."
A few days ago, Mel Antonen of USA TODAY wrote an article on the Derby and included was the below list.
Year Champion, team 1st half 2nd half Total
2000 Sammy Sosa, Cubs 23 27 50
2001 Luis Gonzalez, Diamondbacks 35 22 57
2002 Jason Giambi, Yankees 22 19 41
2003 Garret Anderson, Angels 22 7 29
2004 Miguel Tejada, Orioles 15 19 34
2005 Bobby Abreu, Phillies 18 6 24
2006 Ryan Howard, Phillies 28 30 58
2007 Vladimir Guerrero, Angels 14 13 27
As you can see, I'm not so sure the facts back up the "theory." So how does one handicap this thing? Here's my thoughts. First of all, a quick check of the past winners tell us that just two middle-infielders have won, Ryne Sandberg in 1990 (just a one round event in which he won with three HRs) and Miguel Tejada in 2004, who hit 27 HRs in a competition which featured the current format of three rounds. With that in mind, I'm dropping the two secondbasemen in the contest, Uggla and Utley.
Without a full field yet, no lines have been posted. However, I do know that in the past, most sportsbooks will make either the defending champ the favorite or the HR leader from the first half of the current season. That doesn't help us this year, as Guerrero ('07 champ) is not in this year's field and Ryan Howard (28 HRs), the majors' leading HR hitter as of Sunday morning, did not make this year's game. Utley (25 HRs) has the most HRs of any player in the competition (entering Sunday's play).
I've already eliminated him but I'll add that no player who led the first half in HRs has won the Derby or even made the final, over the last five contests. What I'm looking for is a guy who really "wants to win." My first choice is Houston's Lance Berkman. While so many guys want no part of this contest, Berkman is back for the fourth time in since 2002, as he's seemingly on the "every other year" plan. He hit just two HRs in '02, had 21 in '04 (losing to Tejada in the finals, 5-4) and had only three HRs in '06. I'm betting this is his year.
My second-choice is Josh Hamilton of the Rangers. His off-the-field troubles in the past have been well-documented but he's had a terrific first-half. In fact, I'd be surprised if he isn't the betting (and fan) favorite. Heading into's Sunday's play, Hamilton is hitting .314 with 21 HRs and 95 RBI (all-time record for RBI at the All-Star break is 103, held by Hank Greenberg in 1935). How can't Hamilton be the fan favorite, after the following story hit the AP wires a few days ago?
Clay Council (71-years-old), who helped Josh Hamilton develop his batting stroke as a 13-year-old, was invited by Hamilton to pitch to him in this year's HR Derby. When Hamilton's brother Cary played American Legion ball for Council in the 1990s, Hamilton would join in batting practice. Council still throws batting practice for Cary's American Legion team and says he will be making just his second trip to Yankee Stadium. According to Council, he claims his first visit was when Don Larsen pitched a perfect game against the Brooklyn Dodgers in Game 5 of the 1956 World Series.
Who am I to argue with that kind of karma? I'm calling for a Hamilton/Berkman final but I'm sticking with Berkman to win. Enjoy the three-day break.
Covers.com
Sevransky's Top 5 MLB first half surprises
By TED SEVRANSKY
5) NL West Disaster
The NL West sent two teams to the playoffs last year and produced the senior circuit’s eventual World Series rep, Colorado. Four of the five teams enjoyed winning records, and the NL West was the only division in baseball to produce three teams with 89 wins or more. As I write this, on the final weekend before the All Star break, all five NL West teams are below .500. In fact, the five-team division is a combined 54 games under .500, sporting three of the five worst records in all of baseball.
All of this from a division that is fairly well bankrolled, without a single team in the bottom third in MLB payroll. If you bet every NL West team in every game for $100, you’d be down more than $6,900 right now, with all five teams among the top ten money losers through the first half of the season.
4) St Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals enter the All Star break with the second best record in the NL. With two World Series appearances, three playoff appearances and two 100+ win seasons in the previous four years, the Cardinals' 2008 success doesn’t seem to merit a ‘surprise’ listing. But this squad won only 78 games last year and headed into ’08 in what was expected to be a rebuilding year.
Then the injuries started coming. The pitching staff was decimated. Starters Todd Wellemeyer, Joel Piniero, Adam Wainwright, Anthony Reyes, Mark Mulder, Chris Carpenter and Matt Clement have all missed all or some of the first half. Albert Pujols had a stint on the DL. Yadier Molina missed time. So did Rick Ankiel. And yet manager Tony LaRussa and pitching coach Dave Duncan have made all the right moves, game after game, keeping this team very much in contention for another postseason run despite their barrage of injuries and mediocre lineup.
3) Big Bankroll Mediocrity
The No. 1 payroll in the major leagues is that of the New York Yankees. The second highest spending team is the Detroit Tigers. The No. 3 payroll is the New York Mets. All three were expected to compete for the pennant in their respective league. As I write this on the final weekend before the All Star break, the best record of any of those three teams was a less than remarkable five games Over .500.
Other teams that entered the season among the Top 10 payrolls in the big leagues that have failed to live up to expectations thus far include the L.A. Dodgers, Seattle Mariners and Atlanta Braves; a trio that sit a combined 31 games under .500. Money helps in many endeavors, but it doesn’t ensure MLB success.
2) Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay’s ascent from bottom feeder to pennant contender could be ranked as the No 1 surprise, except for one key fact – every sharp bettor that I know (myself included) was high on the Rays heading into the 2008 campaign, expecting this to be a breakthrough year for the long suffering franchise.
The only real surprise here has been the scope of the Rays turnaround. This was, after all, a team that had never finished better than 70-92 in any of their previous ten seasons. But a major offseason upgrade of the pitching staff (both starters and bullpen) and a talented young offensive core has positioned Tampa as a legitimate contender, if Joe Maddon can guide his squad through the pressure packed rigors of a September pennant race.
1) AL Unders
Heading into the final weekend of play prior to the All Star break, ten of the 14 American League teams showed a profit betting them under the total on a daily basis. The Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays, White Sox, Angels and A’s all had at least a dozen more unders than overs this year. As a league, the AL has produced 571 Overs and 668 Unders, enough to blindly produce a profit betting every single AL game under the total. We even saw a pair of AL games totaled at 6.5 (as low as it gets, usually reserved for NL pitcher’s duels in low scoring parks) in the past few weeks, something I haven’t seen in the last ten years for a league that uses the designated hitter to bump up offense.
Baseball Today
All-Star game (8:00 p.m. EDT). The 79th version of the midsummer classic is held at Yankee Stadium.
STARS
- CC Sabathia, Brewers, homered and pitched his first National League complete game in Milwaukee's 3-2 win over Cincinnati.
- Brian McCann, Braves, homered and drove in three runs to help Atlanta rout San Diego 12-3.
- A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays, came within two outs of a shutout, allowing a run and six hits in Toronto's 4-1 win over New York.
- Aaron Miles, Cardinals, went 3-for-5 with his second homer of the year and five RBIs to help St. Louis defeat Pittsburgh 11-6.
- Tim Lincecum, Giants, struck out nine in eight innings and improved to 11-2 as San Francisco beat Chicago 4-2.
- Chad Billinsley, Dodgers, struck out a career-high 13 batters in seven innings to help Los Angeles avoid a sweep with a 9-1 win over Florida.
SOX STEP UP
Daisuke Matsuzaka pitched six scoreless innings and the Boston Red Sox reclaimed the AL East lead going into the All-Star break, defeating the Baltimore Orioles 2-1. The Red Sox moved a half-game ahead of Tampa Bay and took the division lead for the first time since June 28. Boston trailed by a season-high five games last weekend, then won five of six while the Rays lost seven in a row. Tampa Bay lost its seventh straight, 5-2 to Cleveland.
SPEED DEMON
Reggie Willits scored from second on Erick Aybar's infield single with two outs in the ninth and the Los Angeles Angels rallied to beat the Oakland Athletics 4-3. Willits, who entered the game as a pinch runner, never stopped running from second base on the play. Aybar's high chopper eluded closer Huston Street's glove, and shortstop Donnie Murphy's throw to first baseman Daric Barton was late. Willits just beat the throw home, which dribbled away from catcher Kurt Suzuki.
SLUGGING
The Cardinals beat the Pirates 11-6 and scored 28 runs and had 50 hits while winning two of three in the series. They could have swept their final series before the All-Star break, but couldn't hold leads of 9-3 and 10-4 while losing 12-11 in 10 innings Saturday night despite a season-high 22 hits.
SLUGGING BUT LOSING
Carlos Quentin and Jermaine Dye homered for the Chicago White Sox, who had a season-high 22 hits but lost 12-11 to the Texas Rangers. The 22 hits were the most allowed by Texas in a victory. Dye went 4-for-5, including a two-run single in the ninth for the final runs, and five other White Sox players had three hits.
AN EVEN DOZEN
The Nationals, who have baseball's worst record and worst offense, were shut out for the 12th time in a 5-0 loss to Houston. The 12 shutouts are most in the majors. Washington has lost 10 of 13, and three of the losses were shutouts.
STREAKING
All-Star second baseman Ian Kinsler extended his majors-best hitting streak to 25 games with three hits and drove in three runs for the Texas Rangers, who held on for a wild 12-11 victory over the AL Central-leading Chicago White Sox. ... Troy Glaus completed a 10-for-13 weekend with a home run, one of the Cardinals' 15 hits in an 11-6 win over the Pirates. ... Braves All-Star catcher Brian McCann extended his on-base streak to eight straight plate appearances, going 3-for-3 with a walk and a hit by pitch. Atlanta beat San Diego 12-3.
SIDELINED
Reds leadoff hitter Jerry Hairston had to be carried off the field after straining his right hamstring running out a bunt single in Cincinnati's 3-2 loss to Milwaukee. He led off the third inning by bunting toward third. About a quarter of the way to first, he pulled up and limped across the bag. He made it to first safely, then fell over clutching his upper right leg. Manager Dusty Baker, Joey Votto and trainer Mark Mann carried him off. Hairston will have an MRI in Cincinnati on Monday. ... The Reds placed Aaron Harang on the 15-day disabled list because of a strained right forearm. Harang is 3-11 with a 4.76 ERA in 20 appearances, 19 starts, and is eligible to be reinstated on July 23.
CUB-STARS
The Cubs tied the National League record for most players on an All-Star team when reliever Carlos Marmol was selected to replace injured Chicago teammate Kerry Wood. Marmol was picked because he was the relief pitcher with the highest vote on the player ballot. He is the only pitcher in the game who isn't a starter or a closer. The NL record was set by the 1943 St. Louis Cardinals, and equaled by the 1956 Cincinnati Reds and 1960 Pittsburgh Pirates. Before this year, the most All-Stars for the Cubs was six in 1936 and 1988.
SPEAKING
``I hate what just happened this week, but we're sitting in a very good spot.'' -Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon after the Rays dropped their seventh straight, 5-2 to Cleveland to fall a half-game behind Boston in the AL East after leading by five games.
Lawrence's MLB All-Star weekend betting preview
By MARC LAWRENCE
When Yankee Stadium plays host to the 2008 MLB All-Star Game in the Bronx this Tuesday, not only will the pride of the Yankees be on the line but also an 11-game unbeaten streak for the American League.
And should the A.L. continue its mastery of the N.L. they will earn home field advantage in the 2008 World Series, once again lending legitimacy to this year’s contest.
Let’s take a visit back in All-Star history and see if we can’t recall some of the more memorable moments in this classic event.
The tradition of the All-Star Game carries back to 1933, its inaugural campaign. While it was Ted Williams’ contention that the “All-Star Game was invented for Willie Mays,” the truth of the matter is it was more likely designed to showcase the talents of legendary Babe Ruth.
"We wanted to see the Babe. Sure, he was old and had a big waistline, but that didn't make any difference. We were on the same field as Babe Ruth," exclaimed Wild Bill Hallahan, the N.L. starter in the 1933 classic.
LET THE STREAKS BEGIN
When the American League defeated the National League, 4-2, at Comiskey Park in Chicago in the inaugural game in 1933 it was the start of a 12-4 series edge for the Junior Circuit. It wasn’t until 1950 when the Senior Circuit finally put a halt to the A.L’s dominance when they went on to win 7 of the next 8 All-Star games.
The two leagues basically traded wins from 1957-62 with the American League holding a slight 5-4-1 series advantage. That, however, is when things got interesting.
From 1963-1987 the National League beat the American League like a red-headed stepchild when it laid a 22-2 series pounding on the Juniors, winning 11 in a row at one point from 1972-1983.
The A.L finally countered from 1988-93, when the captured six All-Star win a row, only to the see the N.L. win three straight from 1994-96.
Since then, however, it’s been all American as the Junior Circuit takes the aforementioned 10-0-1 streak into battle this year.
ALL-STAR SCORING
Scoring the All-Star game has been fairly stable, with an upturn in run production of late. Here are the combined scoring averages of RPG (Runs Per Game) played each decade:
1930s – 7.9 RPG with two double-digit games
1940s – 9.0 RPG with three double-digit games
1950s – 9.5 RPG with five double-digit games
1960s – 7.0 RPG with four double-digit games
1970s – 9.5 RPG with four double-digit games
1980s – 6.5 RPG with one double-digit game
1990s – 9.5 RPG with four double-digit games
2000s – 10.0 RPG with four double-digit games
As you can see the ‘60s and ‘80s were low scoring decades. The bottom line, though, is this: in the history of the All-Star Game there have been 29 games that have played to a combined total of 10 or more runs while 51 games have played to a combined total of 9 or less runs.
RECORD SETTERS
A stroll down memory lane finds the following All-Star record holders:
Hitters –
Most At Bats – Willie Mays (75)
Best Batting Average – Derek Jeter (.700)
Most Home Runs – Stan Musial (6)
Most RBIs – Ted Williams (12)
Best Slugging Percentage – Steve Garvey (.821)
Most Strikeouts – Mickey Mantle (17)
Pitchers –
Most Wins – Lefty Gomez (3)
Most Appearances – Roger Clemens (9)
Most Innings Pitched – Don Drysdale (19.3)
Most Strikeouts – Don Drysdale (19)
Most Walks – Jim Palmer (7)
Most Runs Allowed – Whitey Ford (13)
HOME RUN DERBY
Officially introduced in 1985, the All-Star Home Run Derby has become a fan favorite, despite the fact that it’s the contention of many players that it destroys the swing of many contestants during the second-half of the season after the event.
The most HRs in any one event was 41, set by Bobby Abreu in 2005. The fewest recorded by any Home Run Derby champion, since 1995, was 15 by Frank Thomas in 1995.
Last year Vladimir Guerrero of the Angles took home the honors when he dialed up 17 long distance swats to edge Alex Rios.
Ironically, one performer has been a multiple Home Run Derby champion – Ken Griffey Jr., in 1994 and 1999.
There you have it. A brief overview on the American Classic, the MLB All-Star Game. In closing, my favorite quote from Hall of Famer Lefty Grove, holder of career All-Star pitching records for games started and games won. Grove put it best when he said, “"The secret of my success was clean living and a fast moving outfield."