Saturday's Tip Sheet
By Josh Jacobs
The weekend is upon us and that means another full day of games to wager on. The FOX Broadcasting Company plans on covering four regional games all taking place at 3:55 p.m. EDT, while a plethora of 7:05 p.m. EDT contests will make the transition from daytime to nighttime action.
Here’s what Saturday’s card will bring to the table.
Oakland (Duchscherer) at N.Y. Yankees (Chamberlain) – 1:05 p.m. EDT
The Athletics’ starting pitcher, Justin Duchscherer (10-5, 1.82 ERA) has been lights out this season. In a total of 16 starts, the 30-year old veteran has recorded an earth shattering 0.82 WHIP (ranked tops in the majors), a league leading 1.82 ERA and has placed only 23 men on base by way of base on balls.
Duchscherer is coming off a solid performance against the Angels just before the All-Star break, giving up five hits and two runs in 7.2 innings of work. However, L.A. was able to secure a 4-3 victory in that contest as Duchscherer was credited with a no decision. The right-hander has gone seven innings or more in seven straight starts.
Oakland is 6-2 in Duchscherer’s last eight starts.
Alright, so you may have noticed that these tip sheets are sometimes top heavy on pitching matchups, but can you argue about the importance that this defensive element has on any given ballgame?
With that said, the Yankees will turn to newly transformed MLB starter, Joba Chamberlain (2-3, 2.62). While Chamberlain’s eight starts have been effective in the stats department, New York’s bats have struggled to support the right-hander (3.8 runs of support per start). Just taking a glance, Chamberlain has been responsible for surrendering a skimp 1.8 runs per game, while striking out close to six batters per start. The good news for backer is that the Yanks are 5-3 in the second-year hurlers eight starts.
The Pinstripes have been a hot 20-8 in their last 28 games played on Saturday, but backers should be concerned about the absence of production at the plate. New York is placing the bat on the ball for a .216 BA in the last 10. The struggle in the box has also helped the ‘under’ go 7-2-1 in the same 10-game slide.
Boston (Beckett) at Chicago White Sox (Garland) – 3:55 p.m. EDT
For a club that has problems scratching together hits, let alone runs, the Angels have been a bettor’s best friend with a money line profit sitting at +1266 and a run line income returning backers +12.69 units.
In Friday’s tip sheet it was pointed out that L.A. is a monster on the road with a current record at 31-18. But sticking to the matter at hand the Halos will find themselves facing a Red Sox team bent on sticking the bat to the ball. Boston has been hitting .280 versus righties and .292 against southpaws this season. With the White Sox placing right-hander, Jon Garland (8-6, 4.20) on the hill, you can bet your bottom dollar that the Red Sox will look to jump out of the gate on offense early on.
Chicago’s Garland has been tattooed for a .289 BAA with lefties at the plate and a handicapping .293 BAA versus righty bats. And then there’s his poor performance in Oakland on Jul. 11. Garland was slaughtered for seven runs (all seven earned) on 10 runs in a grand total of 2.2 innings pitched.
Books have been consistent in installing the total score in the last 20 head-to-head clashes at 9½ so don’t expect much deviation from that figure. Also take into consideration that the Angels offense hasn’t been the most reliable. While the team is swinging for a .274 BA in the last 10, June witnessed the club registering a .252 BA, with the month of May serving as rock bottom at .232. The ‘over’ has been an erratic 4-4-2 in L.A.’s last 10.
N.Y. Mets (Perez) at Cincinnati (Fogg) – 7:40 p.m. EDT
It’s official, the Mets are in a groove and the run looks to have released a lot of the pressure that was plaguing the organization. On a 10-game winning streak as of Friday afternoon, New York has been hammering the cover off the ball for a .323 BA. Players have crossed the plate for 6.4 runs scored per game in the last 10, while the pitching game has logged in a 2.52 ERA, allowing just 2.7 runs per game in (the same 10-game run).
The Metropolitans will designate southpaw slinger Oliver Perez (6-5, 4.44) for work on Saturday. In his last seven starts, Perez has allowed an average of just two runs to cross home plate. Catching a no decision in his last start versus Colorado, two hits allowed with one run translated into a win for the Mets but a no decision was given to Perez.
The Reds have been dominated by New York in the last 11 meetings with a 3-8 record. Cinci was able to construct a successful 6-3 run, while batting just .247 during a recent nine-game stretch (before meeting with New York on Thursday), but the Mets have been a road block for the squad. In the four games that the Reds have met up with New York, pitching has been atrocious with a combined ERA of 7.94.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, books have gone onto install the Mets as favorites for a total of 14 times. Most books have already set an early line in favor of the visiting New York club at -137.
The Mets are 13-3 in their last 16 with the ‘over’ going 7-2-1 in their last 10 road games.
In the last 11 head-to-head meetings in Cincinnati, the ‘over’ is 8-3.
vegasinsider.com.
Baseball Today
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona (8:10 p.m. EDT). Chad Billingsley (9-8) faces Dan Haren (8-5).
STARS
- Garret Anderson, Angels, was 4-for-4 with a go-ahead solo homer and five RBIs, leading the Los Angeles to an 11-3 victory over the Red Sox.
- Ben Zobrist and James Shields, Rays. Zobrist hit a two-run homer and Shields allowed one run over seven innings to help Tampa Bay snap a seven-game losing streak with a 2-1 win over the Blue Jays.
- Luke Scott, Orioles, homered twice in a 7-4 victory over Detroit.
- Hunter Pence, Astros, drove in the game-winning run with a double off Bob Howry in bottom of the ninth inning and gave Houston a 2-1 victory over the Cubs.
- Raul Ibanez, Mariners, hit a grand slam and had two other hits in Seattle's 8-2 win over Cleveland.
- James Loney, Dodgers, homered leading off the 11th inning to lift Los Angeles to an 8-7 victory over the Diamondbacks.
IMMEDIATE PAYOFF
Richie Sexson hit an RBI single in his first at-bat with the Yankees. The Yankees signed the big first baseman who was released by Seattle last week. Sexson slumped badly against right-handed pitching with the Mariners, but hit .344 with five home runs in 71 at-bats against lefties this year.
LOSING
Greg Maddux allowed six runs in four innings of San Diego's 11-7 loss to St. Louis, the shortest outing for the 42-year-old right-hander since last September. He is 0-5 in 13 starts since May 16, tying the longest victory drought of his career, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
SURGE STOPPED
The Mets' 10-game winning streak ended with a 5-2 loss to the Reds.
BACK ON TRACK
The Rays ended their seven-game skid with a 2-1 win over Toronto on Friday night. Six of Tampa Bay's losses during the skid came on the road. Friday's victory improved the Rays' home record to 37-14.
READY?
Red Sox slugger David Ortiz hit his second homer in as many games of his minor league rehabilitation assignment with Triple-A Pawtucket. Ortiz, out of the lineup since May 30, is recovering from a wrist injury.
RUN, SETH, RUN
Seth Smith hit an inside-the-park home run to lead Colorado to a 5-2 win over Pittsburgh. It was the 11th inside-the-park home run in Rockies history and second this season. Jeff Baker had one against Cleveland on June 17. It was the seventh inside-the-park home run hit in Coors Field history.
SMALL BALL
The Reds scored four times in the fifth off Mets starter John Maine despite getting only two balls out of the infield. Ken Griffey Jr. drew a bases-loaded walk, Brandon Phillips lofted a two-run single into shallow right field, and Edwin Encarnacion got hit by a pitch with the bases loaded. Cincinnati beat the Mets 5-2.
STRONG IN DEFEAT
Ivan Rodriguez went 4-for-4 with a homer and two RBIs for the Tigers in a 7-4 loss to Baltimore.
UNDER THE KNIFE
Reds outfielder Ryan Freel will have surgery on Wednesday to repair a torn tendon that attaches to the bottom of his right hamstring. Freel went on the disabled list on June 4 after he injured the hamstring. It's unclear how long he will need to recover from the surgery.
STATS
Philadelphia's Jamie Moyer pitched six strong innings to beat Florida for the 10th time in 10 career starts against them. ... Chicago's first eight batters reached base with seven singles - including five straight at one point - and a hit batsman. The White Sox beat the Royals 9-5. ... Anaheim's John Lackey recorded his 1,000th strikeout when he fanned Boston's Kevin Youkilis in the fourth inning of an 11-3 win. ... Nomar Garciaparra had his first multihomer game since August 4, 2002, for the Boston Red Sox against Texas.
SPEAKING
``It's not an error, but I think I made the bloopers for life. I had a bad jump, but I still went for it. I missed the ball and that was it. I felt like I was swimming in a swamp right there.'' - Boston's Manny Ramirez on his futile dive for a ball he had no chance of catching in the Red Sox's 11-3 loss to Anaheim.
Saturday’s streaking and slumping pitchers
COVERS.com STAFF
Streaking
Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays (11-6, 2.71)
Halladay continues to intimidate his opponents, despite suiting up for the lowly Blue Jays. The righty ranks eighth in MLB and fifth in the AL with a 2.71 ERA. He is also 3-0 and has a stunning 0.72 ERA along with 21 strikeouts in his last three outings.
In his last start, a shutout victory over the New York Yankees, Halladay lasted a full nine innings, relinquishing just two hits. The Doctor is also 7-2 with a solid 3.02 ERA at Tropicana Field.
Toronto is 5-1 in Halladay’s last six road starts and is 7-1 in Halladay’s last eight starts against Tampa Bay.
Slumping
Todd Wellemeyer, St. Louis Cardinals (7-4, 4.04)
Wellemeyer hasn’t had much success as of late. In his last three starts, the righty is 0-2 with a lofty 7.16 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.
He is 1-4 in his last five home starts and is 5-4 with a 4.83 ERA in nine contests this season at Busch Stadium. In his last home start, a 7-1 loss to the Cubs, the veteran relinquished nine hits and three earned runs in a meager five IP.
St. Louis is also winless in Wellemeyer’s past five starts.
Jeremy Sowers, Cleveland Indians (0-5, 7.51)
Sowers can’t get the winless monkey off his back. In fact, he hasn’t tasted victory since May 24, 2007. He is coming off a decent showing against the Devil Rays, but tossed 93 pitches in a mere four innings in the process.
The left-hander is 0-2 with an 11.37 ERA in his last three tilts and is 0-4 with an equally lofty 9.51 ERA this campaign outside Progressive Field.
The Tribe is 17-35 in its last 52 road tilts and is 0-6 in Sowers’ last six outside Progressive Field.
Saturday's best MLB bets
COVERS.com
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona (-130, 7½)
Let me tell you something about Dan Haren: he doesn’t lose at home. Well, he rarely loses anywhere but the big right-hander is 7-2 in Phoenix and if you’re going to put your money down on the D-Backs, you’d be well-advised to wait for a home game. Although Haren has been lights out at all venues, it helps when a team that hits .249 overall can crank that offense up to .277 at home.
The Diamondbacks played the Dodgers in a series in Phoenix earlier this spring and it didn’t go so well for Dodgers backers. The D-Backs swept the series by a total score of 23-11. No contest. These two teams are in a dead heat for the NL West lead so it could get ugly, and I like the scrappy Diamondbacks in a tough series.
Pick: Diamondbacks
Texas at Minnesota (-111, 10½)
Sometimes betting doesn’t have to be complicated. For example, check out this simple equation. The Minnesota Twins are unstoppable at home. This club has gone 33-18 in its Metrodome outings and have racked up more than 15 units in those games. Why are they winning so much at home? Who knows. But the important thing is that we capitalize on the trend
As a club, the Twins are hitting .288 in Minneapolis, but the really mind-blowing thing is that the bullpen – which has a mediocre 3.85 ERA overall – has an amazing 1.95 ERA in home games. Whether it’s home cooking, the Metrodome clubhouse setup, or something else, you can’t bet against the Twins at home. Particularly after they handed the Rangers their first shutout of the season last night.
Pick: Twins
Saturday MLB Research
By IndianCowboy
Kansas city vs. Whitesox
Meche did help his team in his last start with a 5+ ERA, but that was a non-quality start for him, he gave up 10 hits in less than 6 innings agianst seattle at home, before that he had 5 of 6 quality starts and to this credit has not pitched a back to back non-quality start in quite some time, he did face the White Sox earlier this year, and had a 6.36 era on the road in which the royals lost 2-6, before that, last year, he had 3 quality starts against them at 3.86, 3.18 and 1.29 - so he very well can pitch well against the white sox, and indeed he is likely on a revenge and a bounce-back here against them. Floyd on the other hand comes off a 20.30 ERA start at Texas so he is undoubtedly in for a bounce-back here as he is 7-1 with a 2.57 era at home, he had a 2.57 era against kansas city earlier this year at home as well, staying away here though, kc has a bit of revenge as does Meche, I can see the royals winning this late and on top of that, I can see the total going either way with meche pitching better and the royals who might get to floyd, although floyd is on the bounce-back from a rough outing at texas, no thanks.
Detroit vs. Baltimore
Robertson got rocked at home in his last start for 10 hits and 5 runs for a 6.43 era against the twins, who seem to be rocking everyone these days, before that, on the road he pitched a 1 era gem against Seattle, remember, that gem came after the twins had rocked in him Minnesotta for a 13.50 era, and he seems to be going back and forth with quality and non-quality starts, note that he is 3-5 with a 6.04 era on the orad, but he did show he can pitch a quality start on the road when he went to seattle on the bounce-back and pitched a complete game 4 hit 1 run game, Cabrera has a tendency to surprise folks at home, as he is 3-0 with a 4.60 era at home, he had a 2.08 era on the road at boston in his last start, he has not faced Detroit this year and Robertson has not faced the Orioles as well, the first 2 games between these 2 teams of late have totaled 11 runs, so the total sits at 10 runs here, I wouldn't be surprised to see an under though especially with Robertson on the bounce-back, I just hate to go against Cabrera at home, small lean on the Tigers as well as the under here.
Texas vs. Minny
Over 60% favor Minny here in this ballgame and why shouldn't they, they are 54-42 and 33-18 at home, while Texas is just 4 wins off the pace with 50 but 25-26 on the road, however, that is a far cry from their results last year. Texas lost 0-6 yesterday so they look to bounce-back today, they lefty Matt Harisson gets the start and although he has helped his team win both ballgames he has pitched in this year, he had a 16.92 era start against the white sox at home, luckily they still won 12-11 against Contreras b/c that was my pod and I was on the Harrison and the rangers for that game, he gave up 5 runs in less than 3 innings in that game though, having said that, in his first home start against the Angels, he gave up just 5 hits in 7 innings for 2 runs and the Rangers ended up winning 3-2 as the kid outdueled Joe Saunders and cashed as a +115 dog, Livan has had 3 straight rocky starts of late, he had a 5.14 against milwauke at home, he had a 4.5 era against cleveland at home, although that was a success as the twins did win 12-3 in that ballgame (glad they won b/c that was another game I had pegged for the Twins as I went against Byrd on the road b/c of the splits), and comes off a 12.47 era against Boston on the road, in a game they lost 5-18. Thus, Livan is on a big bounce-back, having said that, Texas has rocked him for 9 and 10 hits this year in less than 3 and 6 innings, in other words, 19 hits and 9 innings. He had a 23.68 era and 8.44 era as both games went over at 10 and 15 runs. This game can go one of many ways, for one the Rangers love hitting Livan, but he could avoid losing 3 in a row to the Rangers this year which most pitchers do, Livan is on a big bounce-back as is the Harrison kid. The gutsy call here would be the under and given that 66% of the public enjoys the over, I believe both pitchers likely show up as they need to have quality starts today.