Monday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
With the exception of the American League West, where Los Angeles is running away with the loop, all the division races are tight going into Monday’s action.
In the NL East, the Mets venture into South Florida with a one-game lead over the Phillies and at two-game advantage over the Marlins. In the NL Central, the Cubs lead Milwaukee by one game and are four games in front of slumping St. Louis.
**Mets at Marlins**
--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened New York (57-48, -227) as a minus 125 favorite with a total of nine ‘under’ (minus 125). Bettors can back the Mets on the run line (minus 1½ runs) for a plus 135 return.
--Ricky Nolasco (10-6, 3.99 ERA) is 2-3 with a 9.55 ERA in five career starts against the Mets.
--John Maine (9-7, 4.20) owns a 3-1 record and 2.84 ERA in five lifetime starts against Florida.
--David Wright is 8-for-13 (.615) with three doubles and one homer against Nolasco. Jose Reyes is 8-for-12 (.667) off Nolasco with a pair of homers, while Carlos Beltran is 6-for-12 (.500) with one homer.
--Hanley Ramirez has struggled against Maine, hitting just .214 with one homer in 14 career at-bats. Dan Uggla hasn’t taken Maine deep while hitting .231 in 13 lifetime ABs against the right-hander.
--The ‘over’ is 65-40 overall for the Marlins, 30-23 in their home games. Meanwhile, the Mets have watched the ‘over’ go 55-45 overall, 29-21 in their road outings.
**Cubs at Brewers**
--LVSC opened Milwaukee (60-45, +1,131) as a minus 170 ‘chalk’ with a total of eight ‘under’ (-130). Gamblers can dodge the expensive straight price and back the Brewers on the run line for plus money (+120 at most spots).
--This is the biggest series in Milwaukee since Miller Park was built. In fact, the Brewers haven’t had a bigger series since 1982 when Paul Molitor, Robin Yount, Gorman Thomas, Cecil Cooper, Ted Simmons and Co. came up short against the Cardinals in the Fall Classic. The Cubs are in town for a four-game series with first place in the NL Central at stake.
--Ned Yost will give the starting nod to C.C. Sabathia (10-8, 3.30), who is 4-0 since coming over from Cleveland in a trade. The veteran southpaw has pitched three consecutive complete games, taking a no-hitter into the sixth inning of his last start at St. Louis. However, his lone career assignment against the Cubs was ugly, as Sabathia surrendered nine runs and eight hits in just 2 1/3 innings of work.
--Chicago LHP Ted Lilly (10-6, 4.49) will get the ball for the Cubs, who are 22-30 on the road. Lilly is 1-2 with a 5.64 ERA in four lifetime starts against Milwaukee.
--The Brewers are 22-11 versus left-handed pitching, while the Cubs are 19-11 against southpaws.
--Milwaukee is 32-19 at home.
--The ‘under’ is 55-51 overall for the Brewers, but the ‘over’ is 28-25 in their home games.
--The ‘over’ is 56-50 overall for the Cubs, 27-25 in their road outings.
**White Sox at Twins**
--LVSC opened Minnesota (57-47, +1,639) as a minus 110 favorite with a total of 8½ flat (-110 either way). The Twins are plus 170 on the run line (risk $100 to win $170).
--Chicago (59-44, +1,143) leads Minnesota by 2½ games going into this four-game series. The White Sox are just 24-28 on the road, while the Twins are 34-19 at home.
--Chicago LHP Mark Bueherle (8-8, 3.56) has a 21-11 record and 3.78 ERA in 33 career starts against Minnesota.
--Minnesota RHP Kevin Slowey (6-7, 4.41) is 3-3 with a 4.00 ERA in six home assignments this season. Slowey is 1-2 with a 6.62 ERA in three career starts against the White Sox.
--The ‘over’ has been a money maker for the Twins, cashing at 61-48 clip. However, the ‘over’ has not been as prevalent in their home games, going 28-27.
--The ‘under’ is 53-52 overall for the White Sox, 30-23 in their road outings. However, the ‘over’ is on a 9-1-1 run in their last 11 games.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Houston RHP Roy Oswalt has dominated Cincinnati throughout his entire career, compiling a 19-1 record and 2.46 ERA in 22 starts against the Reds.
--San Diego RHP Greg Maddux is 2-11 with a 5.29 career ERA against Monday’s opponent, Arizona.
--Tampa Bay RHP James Shields has a 4-0 record and 2.41 ERA in five career starts against Toronto.
--If there was any doubt about whether or not the Braves would be 'buyers' or 'sellers' at the trading deadline, it was decided this weekend. After the Braves won their series opener at Philadelphia, they dropped the next two games, blowing a 9-3 lead Saturday and a 5-0 advantage on Sunday. In addition, Brian McCann was injured Sunday, suffering a concussion on a collision at home plate. McCann will most likely miss several games. Look for Mark Texiera to get dealt this week.
vegasinsider.com.
The Real Story
July 27, 2008
Baseball Profits: The Real Story
Baseball can be a very profitable sport for both the dedicated handicapper as well as the studious bettor. One of the keys in creating and maintaining profits is one that, unfortunately, is often overlooked. This key area that “slips between the cracks” for many casual bettors relates to properly evaluating streaks. Note that the streaks I am speaking of are not the streaks of the teams on the field, rather they are the streaks of the handicappers (or the bettors own selections if not using a handicapper). This all comes back to the extreme importance of the money line in baseball. This important subject is one that must be fully comprehended if a bettor wants to make very significant profits betting baseball.
The key in evaluating baseball profitability comes down to the money lines. There are many handicappers out there that are hitting 45% of their picks and doing a much better job than those that are hitting 55% of their picks. This is where baseball is much different than football or basketball because there is no point spread involved. If this seems rather elementary a quick refresher on how the dollars fall to the bottom line is something a bettor should not overlook. If evaluating a hot streak and a bettor sees that many of the losses are 150, 175, and 200 money line favorites the bettor must note how this impacts the profitability (or lack thereof!) with regards to the streak. Note that if a handicapper (or a bettor) is hitting 60% on the full season but playing all 150 favorites his net profit would be zilch, zero, nada! He’s just breaking even because the juice is eating away at his profits on every loss.
Some handicappers play a lot of underdogs and note the positive impact that this has on your bottom line. If you’re hitting just 40% of your plays but they average out to be 150 dogs you’re at break even. Sounds crazy, right? Breaking even while only picking 40% winners just seems odd. However, it’s the simple power of the positive money line that allows this. Now, certainly I am not saying that there aren’t successful handicappers/bettors out there who play a lot of favorites. What I am saying though is that it is definitely best to “proceed with caution” when evaluating streaks. If you are using a sports service than it’s definitely advisable to find a handicapper whose style you like. Also, make sure you understand more than just his winning percentage in the baseball…you must understand what types of plays he’s giving you.
As of action through Saturday July 26th my baseball record for the month of July is documented at 39-21. That is a 65% run and there is no “fluff” in this record. The reason I say that is because most all of my plays are totals. Of these 60 plays only 6 were sides. That means 90% of my plays were totals. This is no surprise as that is my specialty in baseball but the key point is this: the average line on a total is -110 either way…just like in football or basketball with point spreads. In other words, a 65% streak in baseball that involves plays like this is something that makes a lot of money. Of the 6 side plays released during this streak they went 3-3. The biggest money line favorite I lost had a line, at the time I released the play for that day, of just 119. That’s why a person playing each play for just $100 per play, regardless of the way I rated the play, would have netted roughly $1600 during this long-term documented streak. There was not a big favorite in the bunch.
The point of this article, I assure you, is not to “blow my own horn”. July has been a great month and I expect the winning to continue but every day brings new challenges as we all know. The key point here is to best educate all baseball bettors out there as to the pitfalls of following streaky handicappers and/or to best educate baseball bettors in evaluating their own streaks if they’re not using a handicapper. Make sure you know what you’re getting when you’re “buying into” your own streak or a handicapper’s streak. Also make sure that you understand the impact of money line plays on your bankroll and how totals, underdogs, and small favorites are so much easier on your bankroll than stepping out on a bunch of big favorites. In the long run, you will make a lot more money this summer if you first understand the full magnitude of the money line in baseball. Let’s face it; we’re all looking to build our bankrolls for football season. It will be here before you know it so be very mindful of how to best make money on the diamonds throughout the remainder of this baseball season…your wallet will thank you! As always, best of luck in all your gaming from Scott Rickenbach.
VegasInsider.com
Monday's streaking starting pitchers
COVERS.com
Streaking
CC Sabathia, Milwaukee Brewers (4-0, 1.36)
Sabathia, who was enduring a mediocre season with the Cleveland Indians, has excelled since joining the Brewers.
Sabathia is 3-0 in his last three starts as a Brewer with a 1.00 ERA and 0.67 WHIP. He has 31 strikeouts in 33 IP and has not surrendered more than two earned runs in a contest in that span. The left-hander is also 10-8 overall this season with a 3.30 ERA and is 2-0 at Miller Park.
The Brewers are 19-8 in their last 27 home games and are 19-6 in their last 25 against the NL Central.
Slumping
Greg Maddux, San Diego Padres (3-8, 4.18)
It may be time for Maddux to close the curtain on his stellar career. Mad Dog is winless in his last 10 starts and is 0-1 with a 6.02 in his last three overall.
Maddux is 1-3 at home and has conceded 10 earned runs and 22 hits in his last four starts at Petco Park. He is 0-1 with a lofty 11.57 ERA this season against the Arizona Diamondbacks and has a 2-11 career mark against the club.
The Padres are 2-12 in their last 14 home games and are 2-7 in Maddux' last nine against a team with a winning record.
Braden Looper, St. Louis Cardinals (9-8, 4.49)
Looper has just three wins in his last 10 starts and is 0-2 in his last three with 7.07 ERA and 1.79 WHIP. He has also relinquished 11 earned runs and 22 hits in his last 14 IP.
Looper is 1-2 in his last three road starts and is 5-3 with a 4.23 ERA outside Busch Stadium. The right-hander has also surrendered 10 earned runs and five HRs in his last three road outings.
The Cardinals are 1-5 in Looper's last six starts following a team loss in their previous game and are 6-15 in their last 21 trips to Atlanta.
Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
Monday, July 28
Arizona at San Diego (10:05 p.m. EDT). Greg Maddux, winner of 350 career games, hasn't won since May 10, a stretch of 14 starts.
STARS
-Johan Santana, Mets, pitched a six-hitter in New York's 9-1 rout of St. Louis. It was the first NL complete game for Santana, who also had two hits and an RBI.
-Geoff Blum, Astros, hit two home runs off Jeff Suppan in Houston's 11-6 victory over Milwaukee.
-Jake Peavy, Padres, struck out 10 in seven strong innings and San Diego beat Pittsburgh 3-1. -Billy Butler, Royals, homered and drove in four runs in Kansas City's 6-1 win over Tampa Bay. -Alfonso Soriano, Cubs, went 3-for-5 with a home run and three RBIs and Chicago rallied from a 5-0 deficit to beat Florida, 9-6.
-Manny Ramirez, Red Sox, went 3-for-5 with two doubles and two RBIs to help Boston end the Yankees' eight-game winning streak, 9-2.
ROCKTOBER IN JULY
When the Colorado Rockies fell 19 games under .500 at the end of June, it appeared the defending NL Champions were done. Not so fast: the team best known for an astounding 21-1 stretch run that led it into the World Series against Boston last year seems to be up to something again. With their 11-0 win over Cincinnati, the Rockies improved to 9-1 after the All-Star break. They outscored the Reds 23-3 in a three-game sweep over the weekend, and have averaged 7.6 runs an nearly 14 hits during the 10-game stretch.
SNAPPED
For the first time since the All-Star break, the New York Yankees lost. The Boston Red Sox slavaged the final game of a three-game set with their AL East rivals with a 9-2 victory, behind the hitting of Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz and the pitching of Jon Lester. The Yankees had won eight straight games, a season high.
SUNDAY, SUNDAY
The Baltimore Orioles ended their run of 15 straight losses in Sunday games, defeating the Los Angeles Angels 5-2. It was Baltimore's first win on Sunday since April 6 against Seattle. Since that game, the Orioles were outscored by a combined 83-43 in compiling the longest skid on one day of the week since Arizona dropped 15 successive Saturday games in 2004.
OUCH!
Atlanta Braves All-Star catcher Brian McCann left the game against the Phillies after Shane Victorino ran him over in the sixth inning. It appeared Victorino collided into McCann helmet to mask. McCann stayed down for a couple minutes, before walking off the field on his own. There was no immediate word on McCann's injury.
ZIEGLER'S FOLLY
Athletics reliever Brad Ziegler recorded six outs to set a major league record with 27 scoreless innings to begin his career. The 28-year-old right-hander, who began the season in the minors before being promoted to Oakland on May 30, gave up two singles in two innings against Texas but was otherwise flawless. Ziegler broke the previous mark of 25 innings set by Philadelphia Phillies right-hander George McQuillan in 1907. Ziegler's scoreless streak also is the third-longest by an Oakland reliever.
WHAT DISTRACTION?
Jarrod Washburn, the subject of trade rumors and reportedly on the Yankees' radar, shook off the speculation to win for the first time in four starts in Seattle's 5-1 win over Toronto. He gave up one run and four hits in eight innings. Washburn has allowed more than two earned runs just once in his past nine starts, lowering his ERA to 4.50.
BULLPEN BLOWUP
Before Detroit's 6-4 win over the Chicago White Sox, Tigers manager Jim Leyland said that Fernando Rodney would replace Todd Jones as the team's closer. Then, oft-injured set-up man Joel Zumaya left the game in the eighth inning with tightness in his right triceps. Rodney, who has one career save, got the final five outs of the game, giving up one run, one hit and walked two batters. He struck out the side in the ninth, but went to a full count on all three hitters. Jones is the Tigers' all-time saves leader with 235. Leyland said Jones' pitch quality and location wasn't where it needed to be.
SLOW UNIT
Randy Johnson, the second-most prolific strikeout pitcher of all-time, threw a pitch so slow to Fred Lewis in the first inning - for a strike - that the radar gun was unable to register its speed. The 44-year-old tossed seven shutout innings to win his fourth straight start and the Arizona Diamondbacks completed their first sweep in San Francisco in seven years, beating the Giants 7-2. Johnson recorded career win No. 292 and extended his scoreless inning streak to 15, his longest since 19 straight in September 2002.
SOMETHING HAD TO GIVE
In a matchup of pitchers who were winless in their previous 20 starts combined, Clayton Kershaw pitched six-plus innings to record his first victory in 10 major league starts, and the Los Angeles Dodgers beat the Washington Nationals 2-0. Jason Bergman allowed two runs and six hits over six innings for the loss. The right-hander is 0-7 with a 3.24 ERA in 12 starts since beating the New York Mets 7-0 on May 15 at Shea Stadium with seven innings of three-hit ball.
SPEAKING
"We're not trying to recreate anything. We're just trying to play well day-to-day. Last year, we figured out a way to score one more run than our opponents. Right now, we're finding ways to barrel up some balls. Our offense has been good from the bottom all the way to the top.'' - Rockies manager Clint Hurdle after Colorado won for the ninth time in 10 games, routed Cincinnati 11-0.
Monday's best MLB bets
Covers.com
Chicago White Sox at Detroit (+100, 10½)
The Tigers have serious bullpen issues right now. Before yesterday's game, Jim Leyland announced that Fernando Rodney would replace Todd Jones as the team's closer mainly because Jones' ERA has ballooned to 4.99. To make matters worse, set-up man Joel Zumaya had to leave the game in the eighth inning, forcing Leyland to bring Rodney into a game that would require the new closer to throw 42 pitches to get the final five outs.
When asked if he would be able to pitch on Monday, Rodney replied: "I don't know. Probably no."
Kenny Rogers gets the start for Detroit today and although the 43-year-old lefty is coming off an impressive road start in Kansas City, he hasn't gone beyond the sixth inning in his last two outings. The bullpen will almost certainly be a factor for the Tigers in this game - and considering the state of affairs, that can't be good.
Pick: White Sox
Tampa Bay at Toronto (-113, 7½)
It's always risky when you try to predict what will happen in an A.J. Burnett start - the Blue Jays' No. 2 starter just might be the most unpredictable pitcher in baseball. But Burnett's stuff has been so good in his last few outings, it's almost enough to make you believe the inevitable horror show isn't on the horizon.
But if Burnett can keep up the pace that has earned him a 2-1 record and 1.77 ERA over his last three starts and James Shields dominates the Blue Jays as he has throughout his entire career (5-0, 2.43 ERA vs. Blue Jays in five career meetings), the scorekeepers should have an easy day in Toronto.
Pick: Under
Monday's MLB Research
By IndianCowboy
Angels vs. Boston
Weaver and Dice-K face off here, note that Weaver helped his tem win the last ballgame despite having a 6 era as he only lasted 3 innings and the Angles bullpen got it done, he faced Boston earlier this year and got rocked for 10 hits and 5 runs in 5 innings, he had pitched 5 straight quality starts before his 6 era against cleveland at home, he is 4-4 and 8-8 on the year, but 4-4 on the road with a 4.5 era, he has a bit of revenge today against Boston, but he is on the road again and Boston is still a bit peeved about only taking 1 of 3 from the Yankees at home, Dice-K hasn't faced the Angels this year but of course has pitched 5 straight quality starts and is 6-1 with a 3.02 era at home. If anything a lean on the under here, likely just staying away because I don't necessarily trust Weaver on the road, but of course, then again, he is on a bounce-back here and typically does well in that role - heck, last time he had a rough start of a 8.53 era at home against the Mets back on 6/16, he came back on 6/22 on the road at Philly for a 1.29 era start and a win.
Detroit vs. Cleveland
Kenny Rogers pitched well on the road at Kansas City in his last start for just 4 hits and has won back to back ballgames but has been having trouble putting together back to back quality starts of late, he did help beat Cleveland in his last start at home with a 1.29 era, so Cleveland has a bit of a revenge today, do note that Cleveland lost yesterday 2-4 as Detroit won 4-6 for what its worth, Byrd comes off an incredible 1.69 era start on the road in which he won as a +175 dog, he is 2-2 with a 3.40 era at home which is a far outcry from his overall record of 4-10 with a 5.28 era. This simply just goes to show that he is far more capable of pitching well at home, he beat Detroit the first time at home and now is on a bounce-back after Detroit got their revenge in their last start, I just fear that Byrd might not have back to back quality starts in him here but at the same time there are a lot of trends working in Cleveland's favor with Byrd starting at home where he pitches considerably better, of course this team is on a bounce-back, Byrd himself is on a bounce-back against Detroit, Cleveland has their revenge against Rogers and challenging Rogers for back to back quality starts with Cleveland at home. Lean on the Indians here - besides over 62% favor the road favorite in Detroit here which makes me like the dog price with Cleveland more.
Baltimore vs. Yankees
Yankees got pummeled yesterday but they did take 2 of 3 from Boston and of course have won their last 8 of 9 and had won 8 in a row since the Break, Baltimore comes off a nice 5-2 win over the Angels last go around, Guthrie is an interesting character, he pitched brilliantly on the road at Toronto and Washington in his last 2 road starts, but he has yet to put together back to back quality starts, after all, check out his ERA of late:
1.13, 6, 1,.29, 5.69, 1.29, 6, and 3.18.
See a trend?
It essentially goes quality, then non-quality, then quality, etc... but he did lose against Toronto in his last start at home despite pitching well so that was actually a loss for him despite it being a quality start, also, he had a 3.86 era against the Yankees at home earlier this year but he lost that game to Pettitte, Mussina didn't get out of the first inning when he faced the Bluejays last time out at home, but then again, he has pitched 5 straight quality starts and didn't yield a run to the hot Twins at home, if anything a lean on the under here, but likely just staying away as the Moose looks to avoid getting shelled after a brilliant performance in a let down, the Orioles like seeing Mussina pitch, then again the Yankees have got it done before against Guthrie and if anything a lean on the under here.
Tampa Bay vs. Toronto
Shields and Burnett face off here, Shields has pitched back to back quality starts he has beaten Toronto in his last 2 starts with eras of 2.57 and 1.29, he is 2-5 with a 6.26 era, far cry from his overall stats of 9-6 with a 3.66 era overall, Burnett has pitched 3 straight quality starts and despite having a 2.57 era in his last start against Tampa Bay on the road he has stilled lost to TB twice this year, Toronto looks to avoid 3 in a row to Shields who is shaky on the road and Burnett looks to continue to get his revenge and not lose trice to TB, there is a reason why Toronto is favored in my opinion and they are likely to get it done as Shields typically struggles on the road.
Seattle vs. Texas
Hernandez faces Feldman here, Hernandez has pitched 6 of 7 quality starts, he had a 3 era at home against Boston and picked up a nd but his team still lost, he is 0-2 in 3 starts against the Rangers this year who have ended up winning all 3 of those games, Feldman is 1-0 with a 4.01 at home he pitched brilliantly against the white sox on the road, against Seatlte he did pitch a 1.29 era start but his team ended up losing 3-4 at home to Silva, if anything a lean on the under here given Seattle's weak offense and Fernandez looking to finally beat Texas this year so of course he still has his incentive to pitch well here, just surprising a bit that over 72% are betting against Seattle here in favor of Texas at home, but Texas has been money of late and especially at home, they do come off a loss to Oakland, a little surprised at the 9.5 line as well.
White sox vs. Minny
Buehrle finds himself as the road favorite against Minny here, he beat Minny with a 1.13 era last time out winning 11-1 but that was revenge from Minny getting a 11+ era on him last time earlier this season, so in other words, he is 1-1 on the year against Minny, he has pitched 6 of 7 quality starts and comes off brilliant performance against Texas at home, Slowey has pitched 3 straight nonquality starts, he has given up 19 hits and 15 runs in his last 3 starts and he has gotten rocked both times by the White Sox for a 5.40 and a 24 era, convention says that Slowey bounces-back here at home but he has struggled in his last 3 starts and both starts against the Sox here at home - so lean on Chicago, but I typically don't like taking road dogs, but Chicago seem to be in a good spot here, but then again Minny has revenge against Buehrle and do come off a loss. Likely just staying away here.
Kansas City vs. Oakland
Oakland got it done at home yesterday winning 6-5, Greinke has gotten rocked in his last 2 starts, he has given up 18 hits and 12 runs in 9 inns for a 21 and a 7.50 era of late against the whitesox on the road and Detroit at home, Greinke had a 3.60 era but gave up 8 hits in 5 inns against Oakland earlier this year, he pickd up a ND which eventually went to Oakland 6-5, just a bit surprised to see the short lay here on Smith and Oakland at home, but of course, Greinke looks for a bit of revenge here from his last ND so he is likely t pitch, likely just staying away here.