Monday Afternoon Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Monday baseball card involves eight teams playing their home openers, including five during the day. The Phillies will raise their NL pennant flag against the Nationals while the Twins open up Target Field against the Red Sox. We'll begin on the North Side of Chicago with the Cubs and Brewers renewing acquaintances at Wrigley Field.
Brewers at Cubs - 2:20 PM EST
These NL Central rivals have been inconsistent out of the gate, as the Cubs head back to the Friendly Confines following six games on the road. The Brewers began the season facing a pair of playoff teams from a season ago by taking a series from the Rockies while dropping a series to the Cardinals.
Ryan Dempster has seen plenty of success when taking the home mound, but ran into some problems in day starts as a huge favorite. The Cubs dropped three of Dempster's outings under the sun last season as 'chalk' of at least $1.45, including a pair of losses to the White Sox. Dempster opened the season with a solid start against the Braves, scattering three hits in six innings, but the Cubs fell by a 3-2 count. The Cubs won three of Dempster's four starts against the Brewers last season, including both at Wrigley.
Doug Davis looks to bounce back from a shaky Brewers debut. The veteran lefty lasted just four innings while allowing four earned runs and six hits, but the offense bailed out Davis by beating Colorado, 5-4. The southpaw hasn't been afraid of pitching at Wrigley, racking up three quality starts in his last three trips to the North Side. Davis gave up just two earned runs in two outings last season as a member of the Diamondbacks against the Cubs, while winning each time.
The Cubs took 10 of 17 meetings against the Brewers last season, including five of eight matchups at home. Chicago is set as a $1.50 home favorite, but the Cubs are 2-4 the last six home openers.
Nationals at Phillies - 3:05 PM EST
The defending NL Champion Phillies have barely broken a sweat through their first two series, easily taking care of the Nationals and Astros. Washington lost two of the first three to Philadelphia at home to start the season, as the Nats look to avenge that series defeat.
Cole Hamels has owned the Nationals over his career with the Phillies winning six consecutive starts the lefty had made against Washington. The former World Series MVP lasted only five innings in his season debut at Nationals Park by scattering five hits and three runs, but the Phillies came out on top, 8-4. Philadelphia was a money-burning 10-9 last season when Hamels started as a home favorite, losing bettors 7.8 units when backing the lefty.
Jason Marquis was roughed up in his Washington debut, allowing eight hits and six earned runs in four innings of that loss to Hamels and the Phillies. Marquis has always been known as a solid day pitcher, as his teams (Rockies and Cubs) are 5-1 the last six as a road underdog in matinee action.
The Phillies have dominated the Nationals with 16 victories in the last 19 meetings. Washington has had little luck at Citizens Bank Park by dropping eight of the previous nine road meetings in this series, but seven of the last eight have finished 'under' the total. Philadelphia opened as a steep $2.60 home 'chalk,' while the total sits at 9 ½ (Bet $1.20 to win $1.00 on the 'under').
Red Sox at Twins - 4:10 PM EST
With the Metrodome era now done for the Twins, Minnesota moves into brand-new Target Field and will open up hosting Boston. The Twins have opened the season with five wins in their first seven games, while the Red Sox have split their opening six contests.
Boston will send lefty Jon Lester to the mound, who has struggled against this Twins lineup in his career. Lester has yielded 13 earned runs in three career starts versus Minnesota, while dropping a pair of road starts. The southpaw didn't begin the season strong by lasting just five innings and allowing four earned runs in a 6-4 home loss to the Yankees.
Carl Pavano will christen the mound at Target Field as the Twins' righty was superb in his first start of the season. The veteran gave up six hits and one earned run in seven innings of work as the Twins beat the Angels, 4-2. Pavano was reborn in Minnesota after spending the first half of last season in Cleveland, as the Twins won five of his final seven starts. Pavano shut down the Red Sox at Fenway last May as a member of the Indians with a 9-2 victory as a $1.50 underdog.
The Red Sox claimed four of six meetings last season as the two clubs split four games in Minneapolis. Boston is listed as a $1.45 road favorite while the total is set at 9.
Astros at Cardinals - 4:15 PM EST
Houston is the lone winless team in baseball at 0-6 after getting swept by both San Francisco and Philadelphia at home. The road may be the cure for the Astros, but ending their losing ways won't be easy against the defending division champion Cardinals.
Staff co-ace Adam Wainwright takes the mound for the Redbirds, as the righty looks to capitalize following a 6-3 victory over Cincinnati last Wednesday. Wainwright has been automatic against the Astros in his career with St. Louis winning nine of his last ten starts in this series. The 28-year old finished last season with three consecutive losses at Busch Stadium, despite each start being a quality one.
Wandy Rodriguez is known to struggle on the road, as the Astros went 4-8 in the lefty's 12 away underdog starts in 2009. The Houston southpaw was out-dueled by Barry Zito in his last start as the Astros were shut out by the Giants, 3-0. Rodriguez allowed seven hits and three earned runs in six innings, but received no support from his offense. The Astros were a dreadful 1-4 in Rodriguez's five starts against the Cardinals last season, Houston tallied just two runs in three road losses.
St. Louis captured nine of 15 meetings last season, including a 7-2 mark at home. The Cardinals are a hefty $2.20 favorite with the total set at 7 ½.
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NATIONAL LEAGUE
Cincinnati (3-3) at Florida (4-2)
The Reds hit the road for the first time in 2010 and send Johnny Cueto (0-0, 3.00 ERA) to the mound at Sun Life Stadium opposite the Marlins and Ricky Nolasco (0-0, 4.05).
Cincinnati took two of three from the Cubs over the weekend, including Sunday’s 3-1 victory, to give the Reds three wins in their last four games. The Reds are 5-1 in their last six road games and 6-2 in series openers, but they are just 1-6 in their last seven roadies against winning teams.
The Marlins won the final two of a three-game set against the Dodgers, including Sunday’s 6-5 victory, to give them four wins in their last five. Florida is 6-1 in its last seven against right-handers, but 0-4 in its last four on Monday and 1-8 in its last nine series openers.
Cincinnati is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings between these two teams, even though the two squads split six clashes last season.
Cueto started Wednesday for the Reds in a 6-3 home loss to the Cardinals, allowing two runs on five hits in six innings. He had a strong finish to the 2009 season, allowing three runs or less in six of his last eight starts, with the Reds winning five of his last six. His only career start against the Marlins was in June 2008 when he gave up three runs on eight hits in six innings of an 11-3 win.
Cincinnati is just 1-4 in Cueto’s last five Monday outings and 0-6 the last six times he’s pitched after full four days off.
Nolasco was solid in his Wednesday start in New York, holding the Mets to three runs on three hits in 6 2/3 innings of a 7-6 victory. He closed the 2009 campaign by limiting the opposition to three runs or less in seven of his last nine outings, including a 3-2 win over the Reds, allowing two runs on four hits in seven innings. He’s 1-1 with a 5.11 ERA in five career outings (four starts) against Cincinnati, yielding three runs or less in three of the four starts.
With Nolasco on the hill the Marlins are on streaks of 5-2 overall, 21-8 in series openers and 7-3 as a favorite.
Cincinnati is on “over” runs of 5-1 against right-handers, 4-1 as an underdog, 20-6-2 against N.L. East teams and 4-1 in Cueto’s last five starts, but the Reds are also on “under” streaks of 19-7-1 on the road and 19-9-2 when Cueto is an underdog. Florida is on a plethora of “over” streaks, including 6-1 overall, 22-7 at home, 9-1-2 against right-handers, 17-6 as a home favorite, 8-1 in Nolasco’s last nine starts, 4-0 when Nolasco pitches at home and 5-0 when Nolasco is favored.
In this series, the under is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings, but the over is 8-2 in the last 10 in South Beach.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (3-3) at Minnesota (5-2)
The Twins open their brand-new, outdoor Target Field with veteran Carl Pavano (1-0, 1.29 ERA) welcoming the Red Sox and southpaw Jon Lester (0-0, 7.20).
Boston won its final two games in Kansas City over the weekend, holding on for an 8-6 victory Sunday. The Red Sox are still just 2-6 in their last eight road games, but they are 37-17 in their last 54 as a favorite and 15-6 in their last 21 as a road chalk.
After losing their season opener in Los Angeles on Monday, the Twins won five straight before dropping a 5-4 decision in Chicago on Sunday. Dating back to last season, the Twins are on surges of 22-9 overall, 10-2 at home, 37-16 against left-handed starters and 5-1 on Monday.
Boston took four of six from the Twins last season and has won seven of nine since July 2008. However, the Red sox are just 6-13 in their last 19 games in Minneapolis.
Lester gave up four runs on five hits over five innings of Tuesday’s 6-4 home loss to the Yankees, He was stellar to finish last season, though, holding teams to three runs or less in eight of his last nine games. Lester saw the Twins once last season and allowed five runs on six hits in six innings of a 5-2 loss in Minnesota, and in his four career appearances (four starts) versus the Twins he’s allowed 15 runs (13 earned) in 18 2/3 innings (5.66 ERA).
Behind Lester, Boston is on positive runs of 57-27 overall, 47-16 as a favorite, 9-2 on Monday, 5-1 as a road chalk and 6-1 after five days off.
Pavano was outstanding in his Wednesday start in Los Angeles, allowing just one run on six hits over seven innings of a 4-2 victory, with no walks and six strikeouts. He struggled down the stretch last season, though, allowing four runs or more in three of his final four starts. With Pavano on the hill, Minnesota is on runs of 6-2 overall and 5-2 as an underdog.
Pavano faced the Red Sox last May as a member of the Indians, limiting them to two runs on six hits in six innings of a 9-2 win. He is 3-2 with a hefty 7.07 ERA in six career starts against the Red Sox, with last year’s being the first since 2005.
Boston is on “over” runs of 36-16-1 as a favorite, 8-1 as a road chalk, 5-1 on Monday, 15-5 in series openers, 5-2 when Lester starts on the road and 5-1-1 when he gets five days off. Minnesota is on several “under” runs, including 7-2-1 overall, 6-2-1 as an underdog, 19-5-2 against A.L. East teams, 11-4-2 in series openers, 5-2-3 in Pavano’s last 10 starts and 4-0-1 when Pavano is an underdog.
Finally, the under cashed in 20 of the last 29 Red Sox-Twins battle in the old Metrodome.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA and UNDER
MLB RoundUp For 4/12
By Dan Bebe
National League
Brewers @ Cubs (-155) with total of N/A
Jim Edmonds is 4-for-9 with a HR off Dempster;
Casey McGehee is 3-for-7, and Prince Fielder has homered twice off Dempster;
Marlon Byrd is 4-for-12 off Doug Davis with 3 RBI;
Xavier Nady is 6-for-19 with 1 HR and 4 RBI;
Ryan Dempster is 11-3 in his career against the Brew Crew;
Derrek Lee is a miserable 4-for-23 off Davis.
Doug Davis has had surprising success against the Cubs, and Dempster, as well. I don't trust Davis, though, so I would say the Under, when it gets posted, might have some merit.
Nationals @ Phillies (-275) with a total of 9.5
Alberto Gonzalez is 4-for-8 off Hamels;
Chase Utley is 7-for-15 with 3 RBI off Marquis;
Cole Hamels is 8-3, 2.37 ERA against Washington in his career;
Jayson Werth is a perfect 4-for-4 with a solo shot off Marquis.
I feel like we've been down this road with Cole Hamels, but there is simply no chance we lay 275 on anyone, let alone Hamels. As far as the underdog, this line is high for a reason, though at these odds, maybe you hope for a fluke on a quarter-unit flier. You have to look at the Over, too, with the way the Phils have hit to start the season, but I actually advocate a pass on this game, all around.
Astros @ Cardinals (-205) with a total of 7.5
Hunter Pence is batting .346 off Wainwright;
Carlos Lee is 1-for-20 off Wainwright;
Matt Holliday is 6-for-19 with 2 HR off Wandy;
Adam Wainwright is 7-1, 1.92 ERA against the Astros in his career;
Albert Pujols is batting just .161 off Wandy.
It's rare you find a pitcher that Albert Pujols just doesn't "see well" but Wandy is that guy, which, despite his 3-9 career record against the Cards, always makes him dangerous. Of course, his opposition has basically owned the city of Houston, which makes this side a tough one to play. Low total, but I happen to think we get a duel. Plus, if you've seen the Astros offense, it seems like playing the Under is always a solid bet.
Braves (-160) @ Padres with a total of 7.5
In limited action, Yunel Escobar is 3-for-3 off Correia;
Jair Jurrjens is 1-0, 1.32 ERA against the Padres in extremely limited action;
Adrian Gonzalez is 2-for-5 with a home run off Jurrjens.
I know you want to look at the home dog, I do too, but Jurrjens is a beast, and the Padres don't have the offensive firepower to give Jurrjens any sort of fits. This is a bad value on the dog, and a bad value on the favorite, but I'd probably take the Bravos before the Pads. I'd rather take neither. I don't like the total, either, as this line is already accounting for spacious Petco.
Reds @ Marlins (-160) with a total of 8
Drew Stubbs is 2-for-3 with a HR off Nolasco;
Scott Rolen is 2-for-6, Laynce Nix is 2-for-5, and Ryan Hanigan is 1-for-3 with a HR off Nolasco;
Jorge Cantu is 2-for-3 with 2 HR off Johnny Cueto.
Cueto looked much better in his one start this year than, really, at any point in his injury-plagued 2009. Nolasco has pretty nasty stuff, and I honestly don't know if there's enough info here to support a play on either side. The fave is too expensive, the dog doesn't have legs. I want to look at an Over with the total so low and the Marlins pen so unruly, but I'd leave that total alone, too.
Pirates @ Giants (-200) with a total of 8
Ryan Doumit is 3-for-8 off Zito with an RBI;
Delwyn Young is 4-for-9 with 1 HR and 3 RBI;
Lastings Milledge is 2-for-3 with 1 HR and 2 RBI.
This is a pretty hefty price to play Barry Zito - has he really come that far? Ohlendorf is actually an underrated hurler, and the Giants have never really seen him. Despite a 3.13 ERA, Barry Zito has never defeated Pittsburgh, and I hate to say it, but at this price, you simply have to give a look at the dog, though we must remember how good the Giants are at home.
American League
Royals @ Tigers (-185) with a total of 8
Jose Guillen was 2-for-3 off Scherzer with 2 RBI before this year;
Mitch Maier is a perfect 3-for-3, but no peripherals;
Miguel Cabrera was 8-for-9 off Hochevar before his meeting with Hochevar last week;
Carlos Guillen was 4-for-10 with 1 HR and 3 RBI before last week.
This game has all kinds of value in the total, since these two pitchers dueled like madmen in a game that went to extras tied at 1, and ended 3-2. These pitchers aren't going to go 7 innings and give up a run, again. Comerica plays large, but look at the Over, at least briefly. The side has no value, since this one is going to be bullpen heavy, and we know how the Royals handle that situation.
Rangers @ Indians (-115) with a total of 8.5
Elvis Andrus is 2-for-4 off Carmona, Julio Borbon is 1-for-2, David Murphy is 4-for-7 with 3 RBI, and Chris Davis is 3-for-7;
Nelson Crus is 3-for-7 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Carmona;
Josh Hamilton is a beefy 6-for-10 with 3 RBI;
Austin Kearns is 1-for-2 with a HR off Harden;
Luis Valbuena, interestingly, is 1-for-2 with a HR and 3 RBI.
Fausto Carmona is 2-6 career against the Rangers with an ERA of 6.02.
Carmona as a favorite? Must be a new season. Rich Harden is going to always put a huge strain on the bullpen because of his pitch count, but if he can go 5 strong innings, Texas should have enough offensively to take a lead into the late frames. Neither team has a great pen, though Texas just moved Neftali Feliz into the closer spot, so that should help. I lean Rangers, and I lean Over.
Red Sox (-140) @ Twins with a total of 9
Big Papi is 3-for-6 with a HR and 2 RBI off Carl Pavano;
Marco Scutaro is 4-for-13 with a HR and 2 RBI off Pavano;
Jason Varitek is 3-for-7, and Bill Hall is 2-for-3 with a HR and 2 RBI off Carl;
Brendan Harris is 8-for-18 with 4 RBI off Jon Lester;
Justin Morneau is 4-for-9 with a HR and 4 RBI off Lester;
Michael Cuddyer is 2-for-6, Nick Punto is 2-for-6, and Denard Span is 2-for-4.
The Twins have hit Lester pretty hard, as he's just 0-1, 5.66 ERA against them in his career, and Lester's a slow starter. Pavano looked solid in his start against the Angels, and he's a battler, but he's just 2-2, 6.38 ERA against Boston. I have a tiny lean to the Twins to make a splash in their home opener, and maybe I shouldn't admit this, but I want to see the new stadium play before making a play on a total here, even though I like the Over quite a bit, on paper.
Athletics @ Mariners (-120) with a total of 8
Kurt Suzuki was 6-for-15 off Rowland-Smith before their meeting last week.
Neither pitcher looked at all impressive when they faced off last week in a game that was eventually won by Oakland 6-5 in walkoff fashion. So, this total rests comfortably at 8 despite both starters struggling last time out, and the game ending at 11. I think you have to look at the Under, and assume both pitchers should throw a little better this time around.
Rays (-170) @ Orioles with a total of 8.5
B.J. Upton was 8-for-21 off Guthrie with 1 HR and 8 RBI before this season;
Carlos Pena was 6-for-16 with 1 HR and 4 RBI off Guthrie before this year;
Adam Jones was 4-for-10 off Garza with a HR and 2 RBI;
Miguel Tejada was 5-for-10 off Garza with 2 HR and 2 RBI before this year.
This is a rematch of a 1-run game in Tampa a little under a week ago, and while that bodes well for an underdog wager, Garza is 7-1, 2.67 ERA lifetime against Baltimore, and it's just not the right time to fade him. The Orioles are just awful with runners in scoring position, so they're not putting runs on the board, and their bullpen is allowing runs late, a bad combo. No leans on the side, no lean on the total.
White Sox (-130) @ Blue Jays with a total of 8.5
Alex Gonzalez is 4-for-9 off Peavy.
There is just no history to work off of, here. Tallet pitched well in his first start this year, and has decent numbers against the current White Sox. Peavy, despite all his time in the Majors, doesn't really have numbers against the Jays. Does he deserve to be a road favorite against a team that has started the year pretty hot? Tough to say. I have a miniscule lean to the home dog, but probably not enough information here to go on. Slight lean to the Under.
Diamond Trends - Monday
By Vince Akins
White Sox at Blue Jays – The White Sox are 1-10 since July 09, 2009 after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $1020 when playing against. The Blue Jays are 0-5 since May 14, 2009 when Brian Tallet starts after a quality start and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $540 when playing against. The Blue Jays are 5-0 OU since June 04, 2009 when Brian Tallet starts at home vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $500 when playing the over.
Astros at Cardinals – The Astros are 0-8 since September 15, 2009 after a loss in which they drew 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $910 when playing against. The Astros are 0-7 since July 27, 2009 when Wandy Rodriguez starts on the road for a net profit of $735 when playing against. The Cardinals are 0-6 since May 24, 2009 at home vs a team that has lost at least their last four games for a net profit of $880 when playing against.
Brewers at Cubs – The Brewers are 6-0 since September 12, 2009 after a win in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $780
Pirates at Giants – The Pirates are 0-6 since May 23, 2009 when Ross Ohlendorf starts on the road after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Giants are 8-1 since June 05, 2009 when Barry Zito starts after his team won the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $930 The Cubs are 1-9 OU since May 20, 2008 when Ryan Dempster starts after he had a WHIP of less than one his last start for a net profit of $795 when playing the under.
Rangers at Indians – The Rangers are 0-6 since August 08, 2009 as a dog when their starter went less than four innings in his last start for a net profit of $600 when playing against.
Athletics at Mariners – The Mariners are 0-5 OU since August 14, 2009 when Ryan Rowland Smith starts at home for a net profit of $500 when playing the under.
Reds at Marlins – The Marlins are 0-6 since August 12, 2009 as a home 140+ favorite after a win in which they drew 5+ walks for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The Reds are 2-10 OU since June 22, 2008 when Johnny Cueto starts on the road after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $775 when playing the under. The Reds are 5-0-1 OU since July 30, 2009 when Johnny Cueto starts vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $500 when playing the over. The Marlins are 5-0-1 OU since August 12, 2009 when Ricky Nolasco starts after a quality start for a net profit of $500 when playing the over.
Rays at Orioles – The Rays are 1-12 since May 07, 2008 when Matt Garza starts on the road after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1155 when playing against. The Orioles are 1-7 since June 05, 2009 when Jeremy Guthrie starts in the first game of a series for a net profit of $570 when playing against.
Braves at Padres – The Padres are 6-0 since August 25, 2009 after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $900 The Braves are 1-10 OU since April 08, 2008 when Jair Jurrjens starts in April for a net profit of $885 when playing the under.
Nationals at Phillies – The Nationals are 0-6 since June 26, 2009 when they are off a win in which they never trailed and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Phillies are 1-7 since April 10, 2009 when Cole Hamels starts when the start time is earlier than 4:00 PM local time for a net profit of $885 when playing against.
Royals at Tigers – The Royals are 0-7 since April 26, 2009 as a 140+ dog after a loss in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Royals are 0-6 since July 19, 2009 when Luke Hochevar starts when the start time is earlier than 4:00 PM local time for a net profit of $610 when playing against.
Red Sox at Twins – The Red Sox are 6-1 since May 21, 2009 when Jon Lester starts after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $500
Tips and Trends
Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins
Red Sox (-145, O/U 9): Boston just put the finishing touches on their first series win of the season. The Red Sox won their final 2 games against the Royals, scoring 8 runs in each contest. With the Red Sox offense heating up, it's quite likely the Red Sox will go above .500 for the 1st since Opening Day. Despite their recent success in Kansas City, the Red Sox are only 2-6 in their last 8 road games. The Red Sox are 7-2 in their last 9 games against the Twins, yet they are only 6-13 over their last 19 games in Minnesota. The Red Sox are one of many teams in the AL that are happy to see the Metrodome as a thing of the past. Boston will have their ace, Jon Lester on the mound today. Lester struggled a bit in his season debut against the Yankees, so he will be anxious to get back out on the mound for redemption. The Red Sox are 19-7 in Lester's last 26 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Red Sox are 0-7 last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 7-1 last 8 games as a road favorite.
Key Injuries - SS Jed Lowrie (sickness) is out.
CF Jacoby Ellsbury (ribs) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 7 (Side of the Day)
Twins: It will be a historic event today, as Minnesota welcomes in Target Field. The world famous Metrodome is a venue that is merely history now, so no more fly balls lost in the sky. The Twins lost yesterday, ending a 5 game winning streak. Minnesota is 5-2 SU this year, winning both series so far this year. The Twins will send Carl Pavano to the mound to face the Red Sox. Pavano beat the Red Sox last year in his only start against the Red Sox over the past 5 years. Pavano was brilliant against in his season debut, only allowing 1 run over 7 innings against the Angels. Minnesota is 10-2 in their last 12 games at home, back in the Metrodome days. The Twins are 37-15 in their last 52 home games when facing a left-handed starter.
Twins are 7-0 last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 6-1-1 last 8 games as a home underdog.
Key Injuries - CL Joe Nathan (elbow) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 3