Monday at the Diamond
By Judd Hall
Monday’s slate of baseball begins at the ripe old hour of 11:00 a.m. EDT when the Red Sox host Tampa Bay on Patriots’ Day. But how many of us would rather watch that over “The Price is Right?” Instead of looking at that über-early contest, let’s look at some night games that we can actually sit back and enjoy.
Rockies at Nationals – 7:05 p.m. EDT
Colorado (6-5, -71) comes into this game with a full night of sleep after finishing up its three-game road set with the Braves on Sunday afternoon. Don’t blame the Rockies if they aren’t up for that series finale after Ubaldo Jimenez logged the franchise’s first no-hitter in a 4-0 triumph on Saturday night. That win was good enough to keep the Rox within two games of first place San Francisco in the National League West.
Jim Tracy will hand the ball off to Aaron Cook (0-1, 5.56) to open this three-game series. Cook was serviceable in his last start, giving up three earned runs on four hits in six innings of work on April 14 at home against the Mets. He didn’t get a decision for his efforts, but the Rockies did get a 6-5 win as $1.75 home favorites against New York.
Cook has had reasonable success during his career against the Nationals, going 2-1 with a 3.63 earned run average in eight appearances. Ryan Zimmerman is 1-for-6 (.167) with two strikeouts against the Colorado right-hander. The only regular in the Nats’ lineup that has done well against Cook is Adam Dunn. The former Red is 3-for-14 (.214) with a home run and three runs batted in.
Washington (6-5, +486) will be handing the ball over to Chris Stammen (0-0, 15.63). The Nationals’ No. 3 starter is going to be looking to erase the bad taste of his last start out of his mouth. Stammen lasted just 1.1 innings against the Phillies on April 14. That was long enough for Philadelphia to torch him for seven earned runs on seven hits, one of which being a four-bagger.
There is reason for Stammen to feel like he has a chance in this contest. He’s only 0-1 with an ERA of 2.19 in two starts. Brad Hawpe and Todd Helton are the only true threats to Washington’s hurler, combining to hit .300 with two RBI and one homer.
The ‘under’ is 5-3 in Colorado’s last eight games this season. On the road, however, the ‘over’ is 3-1-1 for the Rox.
Washington has seen the ‘under’ hit in two straight home contests after opening Nationals Park on a 3-0 ‘over’ run.
Nationals’ fans and bettors alike should be aware that they are just 9-16 over the last two seasons in night home games against teams out of the NL West. That includes a three-game sweep that the Rockies had against them in August of 2009. The ‘under’ cashed in all three of those tilts as well.
Tigers at Angels – 10:05 p.m. EDT
It wasn’t too long ago that we thought that Detroit (6-5, -101) was going to break out to a big lead in the AL Central. The Tigers started the season out at 5-1 after dominating Kansas City on the road and Cleveland at Comerica Park. The Royals returned the favor in Detroit, winning of two of three. Then Jim Leyland’s club has dropped two straight in Seattle.
The Tigers will look to start anew on Monday night with Dontrelle Willis (0-0, 4.91). The former Marlin has had his demons over the past few years, but appears to have gotten over the hump. Willis allowed four earned runs on nine hits in five innings of work last Tuesday. He wound up with no decision for his work, but Detroit did wind up winning 6-5 as a $1.20 home “chalk” over the Royals.
Los Angeles (5-7, -286) may still have a losing record, but that appears to be changing in the very near future. The Halos have won three of their last four games after opening the season in a mind-boggling 2-6 funk.
Joel Pineiro (1-1, 2.77) will be entrusted to keep the good fortunes of the Angels going. There is reason for LA to be optimistic about its chances in this contest after Pineiro’s last outing. He was able to surrender just one earned run on five hits in seven innings of work to beat the Yankees as a $1.80 road pup on April 14.
What could hold down LA is the fact that the Tigers have won four of their last five games against them. The ‘under’ has been a smart play as it has gone 4-2 in the last six head-to-head meetings.
The Tigers are 3-6 in Willis’ last nine road starts since 2008. The ‘over’ is 6-3 in those games as well.
The ‘over’ is 4-3 for the Angels’ first seven home tests. The ‘over’ is 3-2 in Detroit’s five road games this season.
vegasinsider.com
Detroit (6-5) at L.A. Angeles (6-7)
The Tigers continue a season-long 11-game road trip when they send Dontrelle Willis (1-0, 4.91
ERA) to the mound for the opener of a four-game series against Joel Pineiro (1-1, 2.77) and the Angels at Angel Stadium.
Detroit salvaged a three-game weekend series in Seattle with Sunday’s 4-2 victory, snapping a three-game losing skid that followed a 5-1 run. Still, the Tigers are mired in a slew of slumps, including 3-5 on the road, 3-5 against the A.L. West, 3-10 in series openers and 26-60 as a road underdog.
The Angels got a tremendous pitching performance from Ervin Santana on Sunday and knocked off the Blue Jays 3-1 to sweep the three-game series in Toronto. Los Angeles has followed a 1-6 slump by winning three of its last four (all on the road). Mike Scioscia’s club is also on positive runs of 4-0 on Monday, 15-6 as a favorite and 38-18 against left-handed starters, but it has lost five of its last six home games.
The Tigers scored a rare season-series win over Los Angeles last year, taking five of nine meetings (3-4 on the road). Still, the Angels have won 47 of the last 68 battles overall and 35 of the last 52 matchups in Anaheim.
Willis faced Kansas City in his first two outings of the season, giving up two runs on seven hits in six innings of a 7-3 road win and four runs on nine hits (two homers) over five innings on Tuesday, getting a no-decision as the Tigers rallied for a 6-5 home victory. Detroit had lost four of Willis’ final five starts in 2009, and it is just is 2-6 in his last eight road outings (all as an underdog).
Willis’ only start against the Angels came on June 18, 2005, when he was with the Marlins and he scattered 10 hits and a walk in seven shutout innings, but the Angels rallied for a 2-1 interleague home win.
Pineiro has delivered back-to-back quality starts in his debut season with the Angels, following up a three-run, five-hit, six-inning effort against the Twins (10-1 home loss) with Wednesday’s one-run, five-hit, seven-inning performance against the Yankees (5-3 road win). Pineiro – whose first eight big-league seasons were in the American League (Seattle and Boston) – remains just 1-2 with a 5.27 ERA in nine career games (six starts) at Angel Stadium.
Pineiro is 6-2 with a 2.66 ERA in 11 lifetime appearances (nine starts) against Detroit, the most recent coming in an interleague game last June when he was with St. Louis. In that contest, Pineiro allowed four runs (one earned) in seven innings of a 6-3 home loss.
The under is 18-7-2 in Detroit’s last 26 games against A.L. West foes, but otherwise it is on “over” streaks of 5-2 overall, 6-3 on the road, 5-0 as a road underdog, 5-1 against right-handed starters, 7-0 on Monday and 4-1-1 in series openers. Also, the over is 3-1 in Willis’ last four starts overall and 6-2 in his last eight road efforts.
The over is 3-0-1 in the Angels’ last four series openers, but from there the Halos are on “under” runs of 35-15-3 overall, 12-3-1 against the Central Division, 3-1-2 on Monday and 14-6-1 versus lefty starters. Also, the under is 7-3 in Pineiro’s last 10 starts against Detroit going back to 2001.
Finally, the under is 12-5-1 in the last 18 Tigers-Angels clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and UNDER
MLB Combo RoundUp For 4/19
By Dan Bebe
National League
Rockies (-170) @ Nationals with a total of 10
Willie Harris is 4-for-10 off Aaron Cook;
Clint Barmes is 2-for-5 and Brad Hawpe has homered off Stammen.
Fairly quietly, the Nationals are playing better baseball, though a 10-run first inning for the Brewers sort of doomed their hopes of a series sweep. This isn't going to be an easy one, though, with Colorado coming to town. I'm curious to see how long lines like this one keep getting put out there when the Nats really aren't as bad as they looked against the Phils to start the season. I'm not saying I'd play on Mr. Stammen, but I certainly wouldn't lay 170 on the road with a guy who gives up plenty of hits and makes a living working out of jams.
Cubs (-140) @ Mets with a total of 8.5
There is absolutely no data to work off of, here, since these batters on both sides have about a grand total of 15 ABs against the opposition. Randy Wells is a solid young starter, and Jon Niese we've been hearing about for about 2-3 years, but he just hasn't done anything to impress at the Big League level. It's tough to lay the road chalk with a team that isn't playing all that well in Chicago, but it's tougher to play on the Mets to actually win a game that doesn't go 20 innings. Pass.
Cardinals (-145) @ D'backs with a total of 9.5
Conor Jackson is 9-for-19 with 3 RBI off Penny;
Adam Laroche is 4-for-12 with 2 HR and 6 RBI off Penny;
Mark Reynolds is 4-for-9 off Penny with a HR and 4 RBI off Penny;
Felipe Lopez is 3-for-5 off Rodrigo Lopez with 2 HR and 2 RBI (what's in a name?).
Is Dave Duncan REALLY this good? I mean, we've seen what he's done with guys with talent left, but has he truly turned Brad Penny into the best pitcher on the team just by changing his grip on the 2-seam fastball? Penny is 9-3 against Arizona in his career, and with his start to the 2010 campaign, I'm not touching this game with 10-foot pole, since I happen to loathe Penny, and I'm not betting on him until we see what he's truly going to do this season.
Giants (-150) @ Padres with a total of 7
Adrian Gonzalez is batting .341 off Cain since 2005 with 2 HR and 8 RBI;
Yorvit Torrealba is 8-for-24 with a HR and 3 RBI since '05;
Clayton Richard is 0-1, 13.50 ERA against SF.
I'm honestly a tad surprised this line is only -150 for Cain. I know his ERA to start the year is up at 4.26, but he has a career 2.91 ERA against the Padres, and while his record is just 4-6, we all remember how Cain was probably the unluckiest pitcher in the Bigs for about 2 full seasons, in terms of run support. How can you not lean to Cain at this price? Richard has done nothing to inspire confidence in me, and I know the Padres can be a real pain in the butt at home, Cain could potentially go 9 strong.
American League
Rays @ Red Sox (-165) with a total of 9
Willy Aybar is 2-for-4 with a HR and 3 RBI off Lackey;
Carlos Pena is 5-for-15 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Lackey.
The current Red Sox haven't done much against Niemann, though his career numbers against them are 0-1 with an ERA of 15. Something about that screams "this isn't the whole story." John Lackey has been, basically, the one Red Sox pitcher that has been consistent thus far. The Sox have looked, for lack of a better word, a little old so far, not playing very good defense, and just trying to outslug other teams. They've become the Yankees of a few years ago. At -165, the Red Sox aren't much of a deal, but as the Rays are on the brink of sweeping a 4-game series in Fenway, it might be worth it to toss a half-unit on Boston just because we know the pride factor comes into play.
Royals @ Blue Jays (-120) with a total of 9.5
David DeJesus is 3-for-7 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Morrow.
Look at that. That's about as close to a road pick as the Royals will get when the name Greinke isn't in the listed pitchers section. The Royals can hit, let's get that straight. Billy Butler is a solid offensive player, and Callaspo, DeJesus, and Podsednik have all been doing a decent job, but that bullpen is just such a clusterf*** that I can't bring myself to back them even when I know the situation is right. It's truly Royals or nothing in this one, but I'm currently leaning hard at the "nothing" option.
Tigers @ Angels (-170) with a total of 9.5
Johnny Damon is 5-for-15 off Pineiro since 2005;
Carlos Guillen is 3-for-7 off him with 2 RBI;
Magglio Ordonez is 4-for-8 off Pineiro over the last 5 seasons.
The Angels haven't seen the D-Train, so that's a slight advantage for the erratic lefty. You just have to root for Dontrelle to get his deal straightened out, and in his first couple starts, he's been okay. Didn't pitch all that well in the second start, but was let off the hook by a Royals bullpen implosion. And one thing you can say for Dontrelle is that when he's been able to get the ball over the plate, he's been effective. Walks hurt him a great deal, so I suppose the hope is that he can limit the free passes. On the other side, Pineiro has been outstanding in his first 2 starts for the Halos, but -170? The Angels are coming home from Toronto, and coming home off a road sweep, so the value is hugely with the Tigers, and jetlag can be a disastrous thing if those legs start to tire at all.
Orioles @ Mariners (-165) with a total of 8
Franklin Gutierrez is 4-for-8 off Bergesen;
Ichiro is 4-for-11 off Bergesen.
Believe it or not, Bergesen, sporting a 11.74 ERA on the season, is 1-1 against Seattle with a 2.14 ERA in his short career. Seattle feels like they've upgraded offensively since last year, but with the Orioles playing a nice offensive game yesterday in Oakland, maybe they're waking up. If so, this is a great spot to start riding the Orioles. Even if they only play .500 baseball, you're making money on those big underdog lines. Slight lean to O's.
Diamond Trends - Monday
By Vince Akins
Tigers at Angels – The Tigers are 0-8 since April 17, 2009 as a road dog after a win and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $800 when playing against.
Royals at Blue Jays – The Royals are 0-8 since May 13, 2009 when Brian Bannister starts as a dog after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Royals are 0-7 since August 09, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem when they blew a lead in their starter's last start and lost for a net profit of $710 when playing against. The League is 0-7 since September 21, 2009 after a loss in which their starter pitched at least 8 innings for a net profit of $875 when playing against.
Cardinals at Diamondbacks – The Cardinals are 6-0 since April 10, 2009 as a favorite when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $600
Orioles at Mariners – The Orioles are 0-10 since May 05, 2009 as a road dog when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The Orioles are 0-7 since September 23, 2009 on the road when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $700 when playing against.
Cubs at Mets – The Cubs are 7-0 since July 01, 2009 when Randy Wells starts as a favorite after the team won his last two starts for a net profit of $700. The Mets are 0-8 since July 21, 2009 as a dog vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Mets are 0-6 since August 23, 2009 after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings for a net profit of $600 when playing against.
Rockies at Nationals – The Rockies are 7-0 since April 29, 2009 as a 140+ favorite when they are off a loss in which they held the lead for a net profit of $700. The Rockies are 7-0 since April 29, 2009 as a 140+ favorite after a one run loss for a net profit of $700. The Nationals are 0-9 since June 05, 2009 at home when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $910 when playing against.
Giants at Padres – The Giants are 6-0 since May 17, 2009 when Matt Cain starts vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $610. The Giants are 6-0 since June 09, 2009 as a favorite after a loss in which they were shut out in the first 6 innings and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $600
Rays at Red Sox – The Rays are 5-0 since May 07, 2009 when Jeff Niemann starts vs a team that has lost at least their last four games for a net profit of $545. The Rays are 7-0 since May 06, 2009 as a dog vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $925. The Red Sox are 0-7 since September 25, 2009 as a favorite vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $955 when playing against.