Philadelphia (11-7) at San Francisco (10-8)
Roy Halladay (4-0, 0.82 ERA) goes for his fifth win in as many starts this season as the Phillies open a three-game series at AT&T Park against the Giants, who are slated to hand the ball to southpaw Jonathan Sanchez (1-1, 1.86).
Philadelphia, which is in the midst of a nine-game road trip, lost two of three over the weekend in Arizona, including Sunday’s 8-6 setback. Since starting the season 8-2 (including 5-1 on the road), the Phillies have dropped five of their last eight games. They’ve also lost five of six to left-handed starters, but the two-time defending N.L. champs remain on positive runs of 6-3 on the highway, 37-18 versus the N.L. West, 7-2 in series openers and 21-6 on Monday.
San Francisco took the first two games of a weekend home series against Albert Pujols and the Cardinals (4-1 and 2-0), but failed to finish off the sweep as it got shutout 2-0 Sunday, with Pujols going 3-for-4 with a home run. Like Philadelphia, the Giants started out strong (8-3) but have since dropped five of their last seven. On the bright side, Bruce Bochy’s bunch is on positive surges of 10-3 at home, 11-5 against right-handed starters, 53-27 at home versus righties, 5-1 on Monday and 15-5 in series openers.
The Giants edged Philly in the season series last year, winning four of seven meetings, and they’re 6-3 in the last nine series clashes, including 5-1 in the last six at AT&T Park.
Halladay has been absolutely brilliant in his first month with his new team, giving up just four runs (three earned) in 33 innings. That includes two complete games in his last two road starts, beating the Astros 2-1 on April 11 and the Braves 2-0 on Wednesday. The veteran right-hander is 3-0 with a 0.36 ERA in three road games, and overall he has a 28-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Going back to last season when he was pitching in Toronto, Halladay has delivered eight straight quality starts, giving up two earned runs or less in each game while pitching at least seven innings in seven straight contests (including four complete games). In fact, Halladay has six complete games in his last 10 starts, allowing a total of 11 earned runs in 82 innings over this stretch (1.21 ERA). The only negative for Halladay coming into this one: He’s faced the Giants twice in his career – interleague games in 2002 and 2004 – and he’s 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA, yielding five runs in each game.
Sanchez struggled in his first start on April 9, allowing three runs on seven hits in just 4 1/3 innings, but he’s been fantastic in his last two outings, pitching eight scoreless innings in a 6-0 home win over Pittsburgh on April 14 and allowing one run in seven innings of a tough-luck 1-0 loss in San Diego last Monday. Sanchez has surrendered just four hits and six walks while striking out 21 in his last two games spanning 15 innings.
Sanchez has given up three runs or less in six consecutive starts going back to September, and San Francisco had won six straight games behind the left-hander before last week’s 1-0 loss to the Padres. However, the Giants are 1-6 in Sanchez’s last seven Monday starts and 3-7 in his last 10 against the N.L. East. Sanchez has faced the Phillies seven times (three starts), going 1-1 with a 3.74 ERA. In two starts against Philadelphia last season, he gave up a total of three runs, six hits and six walks in 11 2/3 innings, with San Francisco winning 7-2 at home and losing 1-0 on the road.
Philadelphia is on a slew of “over” runs, including 30-11-2 overall, 21-9 on the road, 5-1 versus left-handed starters, 5-1 against the N.L. West and 9-4-1 in series openers. Conversely, the Giants have stayed low in seven straight games overall, and the under is 9-4-1 in Sanchez’s last 14 starts overall and 5-2 in his last seven Monday outings. However, San Francisco is also on “over” surges of 9-3-2 in series openers, 5-1-2 on Monday, 13-5-2 when Sanchez starts at home and 6-2-1 when Sanchez faces N.L. East competition.
Finally, five of last year’s final six clashes between these teams stayed under the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
MLB RoundUp For 4/26
By Dan Bebe
National League
Dodgers (-140) @ Mets with a total of 8.5
Garret Anderson is 3-for-5 off Perez with a HR;
Jamey Carroll is 4-for-5 off Perez;
Matt Kemp is 4-for-11 off Perez with a HR and 2 RBI;
Russ Martin is 5-for-11 with an RBI off Perez;
Jose Reyes is 3-for-5 off Kuroda with an RBI;
David Wright is 4-for-7 with 3 RBI off Kuroda.
Strangely, Kuroda is 0-2, 10.45 ERA against the Mets, but looking up and down the current Mets roster, David Wright is the only one with more than 2 runs batted in, and the only one with more than 6 AB, so I think we can throw out some of Kuroda's numbers. Oliver Perez is 6-5 against LA, walking a ton of batters, but generally finding a way to wiggle out of trouble. If Kuroda weren't so predictably "tough", I'd fade LA, but as it is, probably a pass.
Padres @ Marlins (-155) with a total of 8
John Baker and Cody Ross are each 1-for-2 with 2 RBI off Latos.
Mat Latos has just a 3.57 ERA on the season, but he hasn't been economical with his pitches. The Padres solid pen has been able to sort of stomach his short outings, but now, coming off having their 8-game win-streak snapped, I wonder if this isn't that game where the Padres come apart at the seams just a bit. Josh Johnson is starting to get his 2010 on track, and hasn't allowed an earned run against the Padres (in extremely limited action). This line is probably correct.
Nationals @ Cubs (-170) with a total of N/A
Christian Guzman is 2-for-3, and Adam Kennedy is 3-for-5 off Silva;
Derrek Lee is 4-for-8 with 2 HR off Lannan.
Lannan has pitched pretty well against the Cubbies in his short career, and he definitely has the stuff to throw a good game, but Chicago is suddenly hitting the ball much better. Carlos Silva, despite a career ERA near 8 against the Nats, is 2-0 this year with an ERA under 1 run. The value is on Washington, but this line is high because of Silva's success and because the Cubs are rolling. Pass.
Pirates @ Brewers (-215) with a total of 8.5
Ronny Cedeno has homered off Gallardo;
Delwyn Young was 3-for-6 off Gallardo before their meeting last week;
Prince Fielder was 9-for-27 with 2 HR and 6 RBI off Duke;
Ryan Braun was 3-for-10 off Duke before last week with a HR.
We've seen what the Brewers offense can do to the Pirates pitching staff in Pittsburgh. Will it carry over to home games? -215 is way too high a price to pay, and you guys know my feelings about home run lines. Pass.
Braves @ Cardinals (-130) with a total of 8
Yunel Escobar is 4-for-10 off Lohse;
Eric Hinske is 5-for-12 off Lohse with an RBI;
Chipper Jones is 5-for-10 with a HR and 3 RBI off Lohse since '05;
Albert Pujols is 6-for-16 with a HR and 3 RBI off Hudson since '05;
Colby Rasmus is 2-for-3 and Brendan Ryan is 3-for-4 off Hudson.
Hudson has a career ERA near 5 against the Cards, but looking at that lineup now, Pujols is really the only consistent threat. Lohse is struggling to start 2010 as teams seem to be adjusting to the sinker he developed last year. He is 2-1 career against Atlanta, but the Braves as a road dog are a decent value here with the Cardinals coming home from San Francisco, and the Braves just making the shorter flight from the East Coast.
D'backs @ Rockies (-115) with a total of 8.5
Kelly Johnson is 3-for-3 off Hammel;
Ryan Spilborghs is 10-for-25 off Haren.
Incredibly, Haren is holding Todd Helton, Carlos Gonzalez, Clint Barmes, Jason Giambi and Troy Tulowitzki to career numbers of .214 or lower, which lends itself to his ERA of around 3 against the Rox. Jason Hammel shut the D'backs down in his few appearances against them, going 2-0, 3.12 ERA against Arizona. This total is inflated from Coors field, but I might consider the "under" if Haren can get his act together for a start. Tough call, here.
Phillies (-165) @ Giants with a total of 6.5
Placido Polanco is 2-for-4 off Sanchez;
Chase Utley is 3-for-8 with a HR off Sanchez.
Roy Halladay actually has poor career numbers against the Giants, but that was a different team, so we can throw that out. This year, Halladay is a perfect 4-0, with an ERA of just 0.82. He has been downright disgusting to his opponents. Sanchez is pitching well this season, too, posting a 1.86 ERA, and has been decent against the Phils, too. This should be another low-scoring game, which means we need to be careful. I'm not sure I have the stones to fade Halladay, but his team has to lose a start of his sometime, don't they?
American League
Red Sox (-145) @ Blue Jays with a total of 8.5
Adrian Beltre is 4-for-11 off Eveland;
J.D. Drew is 4-for-7 off Eveland;
Mike Lowell is 4-for-5 off Eveland with 2 RBI;
Jason Varitek is 2-for-4 with 2 RBI off Eveland;
Kevin Youkilis is 3-for-6 with a HR and 3 RBI off Eveland;
Aaron Hill is 12-for-30 with a HR and 7 RBI off Beckett;
Adam Lind is 5-for-11 with a HR and 4 RBI off Beckett;
Lyle Overbay is batting .323 off Beckett since '05 with 4 RBI;
Vernon Wells has 5 homers off Beckett since '05 and 8 RBI.
A lot of offensive numbers here, but that low total of 8.5 gives me pause. Beckett hasn't pitched well to start 2010, but Eveland has, and I'm fighting an internal struggle to determine if this total is set low because of Eveland's strong start and Beckett's name, or if it's low because all those offensive numbers are going to get dumped in favor of a bunch of zeroes. Slight lean to the Over, and slight lean to the Jays.
Tigers @ Rangers (-150) with a total of 9.5
Johnny Damon and Adam Everett are each 3-or-5 off Harrison;
Brandon Inge is 2-for-4 with a HR off Harrison;
Ryan Raburn and Magglio Ordonez are a combined 3-for-3 off Harrison;
Michael Young is 6-for-12 with a HR and 2 RBI off Bonderman.
This series has had some offense, that's for sure, and I'm not convinced that's going to stop here. Bonderman isn't quite back to full strength, mentally, and his 7.20 ERA shows that. Harrison is decent, but he's 0-2 against Detroit. There might be a reason to take the Tigers if Bonderman didn't stink somethin' fierce. That high total takes some of the value out of betting on fireworks. Pass.
Mariners (-180) @ Royals with a total of 7.5
Franklin Gutierrez is 6-for-13 off Davis with 4 RBI;
Ichiro is 3-for-9 off Davies;
David DeJesus is 6-for-16 with a HR and 4 RBI off Hernandez.
Neither of these pitchers has run into too much trouble with this particular opponent, as evidenced by the middle-of-the-road offensive numbers leading to just 3 notes in this paragraph. Obviously, the giant price on Hernandez is out of the question, but what about the Royals and the total? I don't like the total because of that pen, and I don't much care for the Royals for the same reason, though the Mariners are fresh off getting worked in Chicago, so do they continue to struggle, or does Felix play stopper?
Indians @ Angels (-180) with a total of 8.5
Shin-Soo Choo is 7-for-16 off Weaver;
Mark Grudzielanek is 6-for-11 off Weaver;
Jhonny Peralta is 6-for-17 with a HR and 4 RBI off Weaver;
Grady Sizemore is 6-for-20 with 2 HR off Weaver;
Luis Valbuena is 4-for-10 off Weaver;
Erick Aybar is 2-for-4 off Huff.
Considering Weaver has a career ERA of just 4.17 against Cleveland, it seems like there are a fair number of guys that have hit him hard. Just makes you wonder if he's been getting out of trouble, or what? Grudzielanek is the only real "addition" to that list above, but the real difference is that David Huff has been decent this year, and his rough outing against LA from last year can probably be thrown out. There's some small value on Cleveland, here, if they can get another strong start.