Opening Day Battles
By Judd Hall
The Red Sox and Yankees may have kicked off the 2010 season on Sunday night, but the true opening for Major League Baseball is Monday. Bettors will be in gambling nirvana since there are 13 games on the schedule. We’re going to take a look at some early contests that caught my attention.
Phillies at Nationals – 1:05 p.m. EDT
The Phillies have been waiting all winter to use their brand new toy, Roy Halladay. How can you blame them though? Halladay has been one of the best starting pitchers in the game over the past decade for the Blue Jays, winning the American League Cy Young Award in 2003. He’s been great in his opening day starts, going 4-1 with a 4.38 earned run average and strikeout-to-walk ratio of 5/1.
Washington fans were hoping to see Stephen Strasburg out on the hill for the season opener. They’re just going to have to make due on Monday afternoon with southpaw John Lannan. The young lefty had flashes of brilliance last season, but still only managed a 9-13 mark and 3.88 ERA in 2009. What will prove to be problematic is that the Phillies were the best team in the National League against left-handed pitching with 244 runs scored and a .248 batting average.
Most sportsbooks have tabbed Halladay and the Phils as $1.85 road faves (risk $185 to win $100) in this game with a total of 7 ½. Bettors wanting to take on the Nats for the win can expect a plus-175 return (risk $100 to win $175).
Given that knowledge of how the Phillies handled southpaws last season, it should come as no surprise that they were 7-2 in road day tilts against them in 2009.
The Nationals were just 13-29 last year when posted as home pups. Break that down to just NL East foes, and the Nats are 3-7 in their last 10.
Cubs at Braves – 4:10 p.m. EDT, ESPN
Not many teams will look at a second-place finish as a “disappointment,” but that’s what the Cubs would characterize the 2009 campaign as being. Chicago will look to get 2010 off to a good start by sending the always expressive Carlos Zambrano to the mound. Zambrano went just 9-7 with a 3.77 ERA in a season where he spent 42 days on the Disabled List. But it did look like the Cubbies were getting the most out of their ace at the end of the season with a 4-1 record in his last five starts of September.
Derek Lowe will be entrusted with the starting duties for the Braves on opening day. Lowe put up fairly standard numbers for what you’re used to seeing out of him for a season, going 15-10 with an ERA of 4.67. What could be an issue for the Atlanta 9 is the fact that he is 8-10 with a 4.68 ERA over the last three years in day games.
Despite those numbers, Lowe and Atlanta are listed as a $1.25 home “chalk” with a total of 8 ½. Gamblers can take on the Cubs for the outright win at plus-115.
The Braves being favored no doubt has something to do with the fact that they won last year’s head-to-head matchups with a 4-2 mark. The ‘under’ went 5-1 in those games as well.
Atlanta was just 8-10 when tabbed as a home fave during day games last season, going on a 0-4 run to close out the campaign.
Tigers at Royals – 4:10 p.m. EDT
Detroit begins the long healing process after its choke job of a year ago with ace righty Justin Verlander getting the start. Verlander was one of the best pitchers in baseball last season, evidenced by a 19-9 record to go along with an ERA of 3.45, which helped him finish third in Cy Young voting. His only real weakness was playing away from Comerica Park. Verlander was just 9-7 with a 4.04 ERA on the road in 2009 (10-2, 2.81 ERA at home).
The man that beat Verlander in for the AL Cy Young last season will also be opposing him on Monday afternoon as Zach Greinke starts for Kansas City. The righty from Orlando, Florida was positively dominant at Kaufman Stadium in 2009, going 16-8 with a solid ERA of 2.16 and almost a 5/1 strikeout-to-walk ratio for the season.
Most betting outlets have installed the Royals as slight $1.15 home favorites with the total coming in at seven. The Tigers can be backed for a plus-105 return.
These teams split right down the middle with a 9-9 mark in last year’s head-to-head series. KC did close out the set strong with a 6-1 in its last seven battles with the Tigers. Don’t look for an advantage on the totals as they went 9-9 as well.
Verlander posted a strong 8-3 mark with a 2.23 in day games in 2009 for Detroit.
Greinke pitched in three day games as a home favorite in ’09, he lost two of them. The ‘over’ was 2-1 in that stretch.
vegasinsider.com
MLB RoundUp For 4/5
By Dan Bebe
National League
Phillies (-200) @ Nationals with Total of 7.5
Roy Halladay, somehow, is 5-1, 2.56 ERA against Washington; how has he faced them so much?
Raul Ibanez is a ridiculous 7-for-10 with 2 homers off John Lannan;
Chase Utley is 10-for-21 off Lannan, also with 2 homers, and 6 RBI.
Marlins @ Mets (-120) with Total of 7
Josh Johnson has skunked the Mets lifetime, going 7-0 with a 2.30 ERA;
Fernando Tatis is 8-for-12 off Johnson with a homer;
Cardinals (-155) @ Reds with Total of 7.5
Chris Dickerson is 5-for-10 off Chris Carpenter in his brief career;
Chris Carpenter is 7-3, 2.11 ERA lifetime against the Reds;
Felipe Lopez is 4-for-10 off Aaron Harang with a homer;
Skip Schumaker is 8-for-24 with a homer and 3 driven in;
Interestingly, Pujols (.279) and Holliday (.063) have been mostly non-factors against Harang.
Dodgers (-155) @ Pirates with Total of 8.5
Matt Kemp is 6-for-15 lifetime off Zach Duke;
Russ Martin is 7-for-15 lifetime off Duke with a homer and 4 RBI.
Rockies @ Brewers (-125) with Total of 7.5
Todd Helton is 2-for-5 off Gallardo in limited action;
Troy Tulowitzki is 3-for-6 off Gallardo, and Ian Stewart is 1-for-1 with a homer;
Jim Edmonds (yes, he's still alive) is 3-for-5 off Ubaldo Jimenez with 4 RBI;
Yovani Gallardo is 0-2 with a 9.49 ERA against the Rockies.
Cubs @ Braves (-125) with Total of 8
Mike Fontenot is 4-for-8 off Derek Lowe with 2 RBI;
Derrek Lee is 10-for-24 off Lowe, but just 3 RBI and no homers;
Troy Glaus is 3-for-10 off Carlos Zambrano with 2 homers and 5 RBI;
Brian McCann is 7-for-12 off Zambrano with 4 driven in.
Padres @ Diamondbacks (-180) with Total of 7.5
Jon Garland (now on the Padres) is 2-1 against the D'backs, but has an ERA of 7.04 - yikes;
Everth Cabrera and Nick Hundley are both batting over .400 against Dan Haren;
Stephen Drew is 3-for-6 off Garland with a homer;
Miguel Montero is 2-for-4 off Garland, also with a homer.
Giants (-130) @ Astros with Total of 7
Tim Lincecum is 2-0 with a 1.67 ERA against the banged up Astros in his career;
Mark DeRosa is a 12-for-23 lifetime hitter off Oswalt with 1 home run and 3 RBI.
American League
Indians @ White Sox (-170) with Total of 8.5
Shin-Soo Cho is a lifetime 5-for-12 hitter against Mark Buehrle;
Jhonny Peralta bats .321 off Buehrle in his career in 56 ABs, with 2 homers and 6 RBI;
Mark Grudzielanek is 10-for-31 off Buerhle lifetime;
Mike Redmond is batting .432 off Buerhle in 37 ABs, but is without a longball, and has only driven in 2.
Blue Jays @ Rangers (-145) with Total of 9.5
Michael Young is 4-for-10 lifetime off Shaun Marcum, with 3 driven in;
Adam Lind has 2 homers in just 7 ABs off Scott Feldman.
Tigers @ Royals (-120) with Total of 7
Justin Verlander is 9-2 with a 2.32 ERA lifetime against the Royals;
Johnny Damon is 6-for-17 off Zack Greinke;
Gerald Laird, interestingly, is 6-for-14 off Greinke, but none of the Tigers have any sort of "production" numbers;
Zack Greinke is 11-5 with a 2.50 ERA against Detroit in his career;
Billy Butler is 11-for-26 off Verlander with 2 homers and 3 driven in.
Twins @ Angels (-140) with Total of 8.5
Jason Kubel is 4-for-11 off Jered Weaver with a home and 3 RBI;
Joe Mauer is without a homer off Weaver, but is 6-for-15;
Scott Baker is an awful 0-4 with a 5.59 ERA against the Angels;
Maicer Izturis and Erick Aybar are a combined 6-for-12 off Baker with a homer and 5 RBI.
Mariners (-130) @ Athletics with Total of 7
Felix Hernandez is 8-4, 2.88 ERA lifetime against Oakland;
Daric Barton, Mark Ellis, Eric Patterson and Kurt Suzuki all are .333 or better lifetime hitters against Felix Hernandez.
Tips and Trends
Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves
Cubs : The Cubs ended last year in disappointing fashion, yet they are enthusiastic about their chances this season. That's because the Cubs went 18-12 SU during Spring Training play. P Carlos Zambrano will start today, and he's coming off a season where he went 9-7 SU with an ERA of 3.77 and a WHIP of 1.38. Zambrano will take his fiery act to the mound today against a team that he has struggled with. Zambrano is 2-3 SU with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.500 lifetime against the Braves. Chicago expects to contend for a Wild Card berth in the National League this season, as they have one of the highest payrolls in baseball. Rookie Tyler Colvin had an amazing spring training, as he was the talk of the team as he batted .468 over 77 at bats. The Cubs are expecting big things yet again from established starts such as Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee, and Aramis Ramirez.
Cubs are 17-38 last 55 games as a road underdog.
Under is 8-0 last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 3
Braves (-130, O/U 8.5): Derek Lowe will be making his 5th Opening Day start of his career today. Lowe won last year on Opening Day, and that remains his lone win on the 1st day of the season. Much is expected from the Braves this season, as they are expected to finish 2nd in the NL East. Coach Bobby Cox will be coaching his final Opening Day, as he will retire at seasons end. LF Melky Cabrera will be batting lead off for the Braves, as he comes over from the Yankees. Rookie RF Jason Heyward had an amazing spring training, batting .305 and turning plenty of heads. Atlanta was 55-54 SU last season against right handed pitchers last year, averaging 4.2 RPG.
Braves are 6-2 last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Under is 15-6 last 21 vs. National League Central.
Key Injuries - CF Nate McLouth (hamstring) is probable.
3B Chipper Jones (toe) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 6 (Side of the Day)