N.Y. Yankees (21-9) at Detroit (17-14)
The surging Yankees, in the midst of a seven-game road trip, open a four-game series at Comerica Park with Sergio Mitre (0-0, 2.79) slated to come out of the bullpen and make his first start of the season while the Tigers counter with veteran lefty Dontrelle Willis (1-1, 3.99).
New York had a six-game winning streak snapped in Boston on Sunday night, falling 9-3 and failing to complete a three-game sweep of the Red Sox. Still, New York comes into this one having won nine of 11, going 4-1 on the road during this stretch. The defending world champs are on additional surges of 40-16 overall, 40-14 against the A.L. Central, 45-21 versus left-handed starters and 6-2 in series openers
Detroit has followed up a five-game winning streak (all at home) by losing four of five (all on the road), including Sunday’s 7-4 setback in Cleveland to end a rain-shortened two-game weekend series with the Indians. The Tigers have won nine of 12 at Comerica this season, and they’re 45-22 in their last 67 home contests. Jim Leyland’s club has also won five of seven against the A.L. East, but it has dropped six of eight series openers.
Detroit beat New York 4-2 in last year’s first meeting (in Motown), but the Yankees came back to win the final five clashes by a combined score of 28-11. Prior to a three-game home sweep by New York last July, the visitor had won seven of nine in this rivalry. In fact, the Yankees are 4-1 in their last five in Detroit.
Mitre, who is starting in place of injured Yankees lefty Andy Pettitte, has made five relief appearances this year, allowing three runs, five hits and four walks in 9 2/3 innings. Mitre made 27 starts for the Marlins in 2007 (5-8, 4.65 ERA), didn’t pitch in the big leagues in 2008 and made 12 appearances (nine starts) with New York last season. In those nine starts, the right-hander surrendered 41 runs (35 earned) in 44 innings (7.16 ERA).
Mitre has a 2.08 ERA in three road outings this year, but for his career, he’s 8-14 with a 6.25 ERA in 47 career games (31 starts) on the highway. He’s never pitched against Detroit.
Willis gave up three runs on four hits in 5 1/3 innings at Minnesota on Tuesday, getting a no-decision in the Tigers’ 4-3 loss to the Twins. Willis has given up three runs or fewer in four of his five starts this year, and he’s 1-1 with a 2.60 ERA in his last three outings. In two home starts, Willis is 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA.
Willis has faced the Yankees just once in his career – back in a 2006 interleague game at Yankee Stadium when he was with the Marlins – and he gave up two runs on seven hits in eight innings, but lost, 2-1.
New York is riding “over” streaks of 7-2 overall, 36-17-3 on the road, 9-2 on the road against lefty starters and 10-3 versus winning teams. However, the under is 7-2-2 in the Yankees’ last 11 Monday contests. Meanwhile, the Tigers are on “over” runs of 4-0 against the A.L. East, 9-1 on Monday and 3-1-1 in series openers, but the under is 8-3 in Willis’ last 11 starts overall and 6-1-1 in his last eight home starts.
Finally, five of the last seven Yankees-Tigers contests in Motown have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and OVER
MLB RoundUp For 5/10
By Dan Bebe
National League
Reds @ Pirates (-115) with a total of 8.5
Joey Votto is 4-for-5 with a HR off Ohlendorf;
Ryan Church is 4-for-10 with a 4 RBI off Arroyo.
Why does every Reds game seem to have a strange line? Cincinnati is playing solid baseball, but, for what it's worth, the Pirates have been playing alright, as well. Cincy hits the road here off winning 2 of 3 from the Cubs at home, and they're the dog to the Pirates? Arroyo isn't having much of a year, so far, but we know how streaky he can be, and Ross Ohlendorf isn't really the "big name" we would expect to get the Pirates to be a favorite. It seems like there's some value here with the Reds, but this line move could make all the difference. I want to lean Pirates to keep up the home winning, but can I really lay favorite money on Pittsburgh against a team playing well?
Nationals @ Mets (-140) with a total of 8.5
There's no real data on Atilano, but there's plenty with Maine. Only problem is that the current crop of Nats is just horrible against Maine, who, to his credit, has gotten a little better in his more recent starts (2 ER in 6 innings against LAD, 1 ER in 6 innings against CIN). I happen to think this price is pretty accurate, especially with the way the Mets play at home, using speed and defense to try to win more "old school" types of games. You guys all know we start with the dog and move to the fave, and the Mets recent pitching and home play warrants leaving the dog, but not sure about getting on the favorite.
Marlins @ Cubs (-165) with a total of N/A
Ronny Paulino is 7-for-13 with a HR and 3 RBI off Lilly since '05;
Dan Uggla is 2-for-5 with 2 HR and 5 RBI off Lilly since '05;
Marlon Byrd is 3-for-5 off Robertson since '05.
Too high a price for Ted Lilly, too much risk to take the Marlins, who can't seem to get an out late in the game on the road. Especially here, Robertson could get absolutely shellacked, and Lilly is getting a little better with each pitch he throws. He's still not at full strength, so I think you have to at least give a peek at the Marlins, but with both teams struggling, this is a spot where you can either pick the lesser evil, or find value elsewhere. Elsewhere, it is.
Braves (-150) @ Brewers with a total of 8.5
Omar Infante is 2-for-5 off Davis with 2 RBI;
Chipper Jones is 3-for-8 off Davis with a HR since '05;
Brian McCann is 4-for-11 off Davis since '05;
Martin Prado is 3-for-5 off Davis;
Ryan Braun is 3-for-7 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Hanson.
Fear the Braun. It seems if Hanson can pitch around Braun, he should be in okay shape, and considering how downright awful Doug Davis has been, there's just no reason to back him. This is a trademark "Pass" game for me. Zero value on the struggling road team with the good starter, and zero value on the hot-and-cold home team with the terrible starter and aging bullpen.
Phillies @ Rockies (-111) with a total of 11
Chase Utley is a perfect 3-for-3 off Smith;
Todd Helton is 4-for-9 off Kendrick;
Seth Smith is 3-for-4 off Kendrick.
This game is a pick, and that almost feels like a nice price for the Rockies. The Phillies can demolish teams when they're clicking, but they're not altogether flowing right now, and they're absolutely stronger when they're at home. The concern here is definitely Greg Smith, and also the health of Troy Tulowitzki, who left yesterday's game with a leg injury. Tulo is too important to take a chance.
Dodgers (-115) @ D'backs with a total of 10.5
Ronnie Belliard was 4-for-11 off Lopez before 2010;
Reed Johnson wa 3-for-10 off Lopez before 2010;
Stephen Drew crushes Billingsley, batting almost .400 off him since '05 on over 40 AB;
Chris Young is batting .308 off Billingsley with a HR before 2010.
Billingsley isn't right. He still hasn't gone over 6 innings in any start this year, and while his ERA is "settling" near 5, which is better than it was 3 weeks ago, he's still just not right. Chad already had a 5.2 inning, 6 run effort against these D'backs in mid-April, so his solid career numbers can almost be thrown out the window, and the Dodgers road struggles make this a very difficult time to back them. I expect LA to play better within the Division, and they hit Lopez well when they faced him before, but I don't think you can back LA on the road right now. D'backs or nothing.
American League
Yankees (-125) @ Tigers with a total of 10
Another game without much in the way of background. Randy Winn is about the only Yankee with more than a couple AB off Willis, and Adam Everett is just about the only Tiger that has even seen Mitre. Andy Pettitte would have started this one, but some very mild inflammation has led to his spot being skipped, and now we get to see if the D-Train can tackle a prolific lineup like New York's. The Yanks beat up on Detroit last year, so I'm hesitant to make a play on this one, with New York winning a series in Boston (losing the finale late last night), they're playing good baseball. I hate to back a team in a bullpen-game, but this is a heck of a price on New York.
Blue Jays @ Red Sox (-171) with a total of 9
Alex Gonzalez is 4-for-11 off Lackey;
Adam Lind is 4-for-6 off Lackey;
Dustin Pedroia is 3-for-7 with a HR off Morrow;
Victor Martinez is 2-for-2 off Morrow before this year.
There is definitely going to be a game this series where we can jump on the Jays, but this is just not the one. The Sox are feeling good after a breakout offensive bopping of A.J. Burnett and the Yanks last night, and Brandon Morrow is the next victim. Lackey has a nice career ERA against the Jays, and I think Boston beats the hell out of Toronto in this one. We'll pounce on the Blue Jays, maybe against Beckett later this series?
Rays (-155) @ Angels with a total of 8.5
Pat Burrell is 2-for-2 off Pineiro since '05;
Carl Crawford is 3-for-6 off Pineiro since '05 with 2 RBI;
Kendry Morales is 2-for-2 off Garza with a HR and 2 RBI;
Torii Hunter is 2-for-4 and Erick Aybar is 2-for-5 with 3 RBI off Garza.
Pineiro is 2-4, 5.70 ERA against the Rays, and red hot Matt Garza is 0-1, 6.46 ERA against Anaheim. I'd say the over is the sneaky play, but the Rays are coming off getting perfecto'd by Dallas Braden, so they're not hitting at all, and the Angels are somewhat hit-or-miss lately. I would err towards the home dog with the way the Rays are stinking it up, but Garza (and his 5-1, 2.09 numbers) are tough to fade right now.
Diamond Trends - Monday
By Vince Akins
Rays at Angels – The Angels are 8-0 since April 10, 2009 as a home dog after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $910. The Angels are 6-0 since April 10, 2009 as a home dog after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits for a net profit of $675
Braves at Brewers – The Braves are 7-0 since May 06, 2009 as a road 140+ favorite when they won the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $700
Marlins at Cubs – The Cubs are 0-4 since September 30, 2009 as a home 140+ favorite after a loss in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $705 when playing against. The Cubs are 0-5 since July 20, 2009 when Ted Lilly starts vs. a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $715 when playing against.
Dodgers at Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks are 8-1 since October 02, 2009 when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $990. The Dodgers are 0-4 since September 13, 2009 when Chad Billingsley starts as a road favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $535 when playing against.
Nationals at Mets – The Mets are 8-0 since April 27, 2009 when John Maine starts at home vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $840. The Mets are 6-0 since April 17, 2009 as a favorite when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $600.
Reds at Pirates – The Reds are 5-0 since May 01, 2009 when Bronson Arroyo starts on the road in the first game of a series for a net profit of $625. The Reds are 4-0 since April 14, 2009 on the road after a win in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $640. The Pirates are 0-8 since August 05, 2009 within 20 cents of pick ‘em vs. a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Pirates are 4-0 since July 20, 2009 when Ross Ohlendorf starts in the first game of a series for a net profit of $545.
Blue Jays at Red Sox – The Blue Jays are 5-0 since September 28, 2009 on the road after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $695.
Phillies at Rockies – The Rockies are 8-0 since May 29, 2009 at home after a loss and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $835. The Rockies are 0-5 since April 06, 2010 when Greg Smith starts vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $540 when playing against.
Yankees at Tigers – The Yankees are 0-5 since August 17, 2009 on the road after a loss and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $695 when playing against. The Tigers are 6-0 since August 01, 2009 within 20 cents of pick ‘em after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $635